Ảnh hưởng của hiện tượng nước biển dâng do biến đổi khí hậu đối với đê biển đồng bằng sông cửu long

: 605845 Trang - HCM 1: Tr HCM ngày 15 tháng 01 Thành ph n H i ng ng i h c Bách Khoa, HQG Tp 2014 nh giá lu n v n th c s g m: (Ghi c aH i - - - TS - - Xác nh n c a Ch t ch H i chuyên ngành sau lu n v n ng ng ch m b o v lu n v n th c s ) h giá LV c s a ch a (n u có) lý Trang TP.HCM - - MSHV: 12020444 -9-1976 605845 I II - Nam - - III 24/6/2013 IV : 22/11/2013 V Tp HCM, ngày 22 tháng 11 ; Trang Tôi chân ch bè Trang 75cm khác 0,05 lít/s/m; 3,82 lít/s/m; 39,93 Trang ABSTRACT The focus of this thesis has been made on investigation of the sea level rise impact with three scenarios of 30cm, 75cm and 100cm and on sea dike branches (total length of 408km) in the Mekong Delta This study focuses on the impact of sea level rise on dike crest level and required weight of the armour layer unit protecting the dike slope Result shows that the absolute changes of dike crest level are differed between dike breaches, however statistiscal result can give, on average, a rule to used in planning or to schedule the sea dike upgrade From this rule, when the sea level increases 30cm; 75cm and 100cm, on average, the sea dike crest is required to increase about 0,5m; 1,3m; 1,8m respectively, to ensure preventing wave overtopping for the same design conditions It is estimated that wave overtopping discharge on the exisiting dike crest system will be in average 0,05 litre/s/m; 3,82 litre/s/m and 39,93 litre/s/m corresponding to three sea level rise scenarios The required weight of the armour layer unit needs to be increased by about 111%; 339% and 468% for the three sea level rise scenarios, in comparison with non sea level rise Trang Trang M CL C 11 11 12 12 13 14 1.1 14 1.2 16 1.3 18 23 2.1 2.1.1 23 25 2.1.1.1 25 2.1.1.2 25 2.1.2 27 27 2.1.2.1 27 2.1.2.2 28 2.1.3 29 2.1.3.1 29 2.1.3.2 29 2.1.4 31 2.1.4.1 31 2.1.4.2 31 2.1.5 33 2.1.5.1 33 2.1.5.2 33 2.1.6 2.1.6.1 34 34 Trang 2.1.6.2 34 2.2 36 39 3.1 39 3.1.1 -2002 39 3.1.2 40 3.1.3 40 3.1.3.1 nd) 41 3.1.3.2 a 41 3.1.3.3 sl 41 3.1.4 43 3.2 45 3.3 mơ hình SWAN-1D 46 3.3.1 46 3.3.1.1 48 3.3.1.2 48 3.3.2 -1D 50 3.3.2.1 -1D 50 3.3.2.1.a 50 3.3.2.1.b 51 3.3.2.1.c 52 3.3.2.1.d Hsetup 52 3.3.2.2 3.4 - 1D 55 58 60 4.1 Ztk,p 60 4.2 a 64 4.3 - 1D 65 4.3.1 - 1D 65 4.3.1.1 65 4.3.1.2 66 4.3.1.3 66 4.3.2 - 1D 68 4.3.3 68 Trang 10 4.4 Rsl 83 4.5 86 88 5.1 5.2 88 - 89 5.2.1 - 1D 89 5.2.2 90 5.3 ng 90 5.3.1 Rsl 90 5.3.2 90 5.4 106 5.5 108 5.5.1 109 5.5.2 110 115 6.1 115 6.2 116 119 7.1 119 7.2 120 122 124 Trang 115 MÁI thơng cao sóng Hs Hs , Hs Hs cho dâng 30cm; 75cm 100cm 6.1 Công th Hudson (1958 1959) t -2002 Trang 116 M Hs 5.10 (T/m3 s s = 2.5T/m3 = 1,03T/m3 - Mái m = cotg = K T 14TCN130-2002) có K = 3,5 6.2 Hình 6.1 Hình 5.2) NBD M MNBD M NBD Châu K0+000 ÷ K20+600) Trang 117 111%; 339% 468% M NBD M = -1,67 Hình 6.1 NBD + 3,57 NBD M + 2,78 NBD NBD (6.3) Trang 118 6.1: s dâng (2) (3) (kg) Ký NBD Hình 6.1 Khơng Khơng xét TT (1) (m) NBD =30cm (4) NBD NBD =75cm =100cm (5) (6) NBD dâng =30cm (7) (8) NBD =75cm =100cm (9) (10) (11) 0,81 0,88 1,11 1,23 44 56 112 152 0,67 0,93 1,23 1,25 25 66 152 160 K0+000 ÷ K20+600 0,71 1,00 1,23 1,35 29 82 152 202 K20+600 ÷ K50+700 0,63 0,78 1,00 1,13 20 39 82 118 K50+700 ÷ K70+031 0,63 0,78 1,00 1,13 20 39 82 118 Trang 119 7.1 khác 408 (6.1) 0cm; 75cm; 100c 0,5m; 1,3m; 1,8m q(lít/s/m) (6.2) Khi NBD = 30cm q = 0,05 lít/s/m, , Trang 120 NBD Khi NBD M (%) (6.3) K 111%; 339%; 468% tính t 7.2 14TCN 130 khơng có thành p Hsetup Tuy nhiên vùng u cao Trang 121 d Hsetup (0,5 ÷ 1,5)m (0,1 ÷ 0,15)m, Hsetup -2020, 2020- 2030) cao trình tính t thêm 21cm 30cm 57% giá , Trang 122 [1] - ng Giang [2] - 2012 - [3] [4] [5] BNNnông thôn) [6] Tp.HCM [7] [8] 2005 Cơng trình i 2003 [9] [10] [11] SWAN User Manual, Swan version 40.72 [12] [13] t 2012 Trang 123 [14] [15] [16] An Minh, [17] Nam 2010 Trang 124 -1D Trang 125 -1 -2 cách vùng cách vùng (m) (m) 8046 17686 129039 130954 133021 164252 168150 199267 201264 238206 240202 257784 259621 261657 263590 265521 269371 271705 274083 274609 274934 275501 -3a cách vùng (m) (m) -60,0 -50,0 -48,0 -42,0 -38,0 -34,0 -30,0 -26,0 -24,0 -22,0 -20,0 -18,0 -16,0 -14,0 -12,0 -10,0 -8,0 -6,0 -4 -2 -1 0,4 7562 16327 116669 118525 120536 152545 155532 185554 187536 223757 225641 242983 244886 246766 248002 249785 253437 254674 256677 257198 257630 257886 (m) (m) -60,0 -50,0 -48,0 -42,0 -38,0 -34,0 -30,0 -26,0 -24,0 -22,0 -20,0 -18,0 -16,0 -14,0 -12,0 -10,0 -8,0 -6,0 -4,0 -2,0 -1,0 0,8 10436 33566 41169 51298 58141 64061 69006 75779 80871 112504 118428 139161 140379 -60,0 -55,0 -50,0 -47,5 -45,0 -42,5 -40,0 -38,0 -36,0 -35,0 -10,0 -5,0 0,0 0,9 Trang 126 -3b -3c cách vùng -4a cách vùng (m) cách vùng (m) (m) (m) (m) (m) -60,0 -60,0 -60,0 14525 -55,0 15245 -55,0 78479 -45,0 37522 -50,0 37021 -50,0 86381 -42,5 44375 -47,5 43777 -47,5 97386 -40,0 55666 -45,0 55897 -45,0 108373 -38,0 62697 -42,5 62799 -42,5 115823 -36,0 67529 -40,0 67452 -40,0 121470 -35,0 72561 -38,0 72449 -38,0 144928 -30,0 80198 -36,0 79320 -36,0 168458 -25,0 85327 -35,0 84534 -35,0 174309 -23,0 118380 -10,0 117068 -10,0 181231 -20,0 124383 -5,0 123038 -5,0 192303 -15,0 146017 0,0 145061 0,0 199141 -10,0 147248 1,0 146363 0,6 206742 -2,0 209136 0,6 Trang 127 An Biên - An Minh -4b -4c cách vùng -5a cách vùng cách vùng (m) (m) (m) (m) -60,0 -60,0 -60,0 81021 -45,0 76858 -45,0 69790 -42,5 89024 -42,5 84823 -42,5 87144 -40,0 100008 -40,0 94676 -40,0 100746 -38,0 111031 -38,0 106681 -38,0 104010 -36,0 118154 -36,0 114424 -36,0 107667 -34,0 123508 -35,0 119856 -35,0 119967 -27,0 145839 -30,0 141753 -30,0 123375 -26,0 170400 -25,0 165744 -25,0 128163 -25,0 176073 -23,0 171820 -23,0 138393 -24,0 182912 -20,0 178398 -20,0 148640 -23,0 194915 -15,0 190495 -15,0 163957 -22,0 200902 -10,0 196237 -10,0 187779 -15,0 207885 -2,0 202785 -2,0 194593 -14,0 210452 0,5 203657 -1,0 204501 -12,0 204335 214405 -2,0 205156 0,4 215181 -1,0 215866 216612 0,45 Trang 128 - An Biên - An Minh -5b -6a cách vùng -6b cách vùng cách vùng (m) (m) (m) (m) -60,0 -50,0 -50,0 70271 -42,5 34991 -45,0 35684 -45,0 86525 -40,0 42491 -42,5 43685 -42,5 99482 -38,0 53484 -40,0 54889 -40,0 103693 -36,0 63802 -38,0 64710 -38,0 107259 -34,0 68200 -36,0 69075 -36,0 120156 -27,0 85082 -23,0 86279 -23,0 123677 -26,0 88555 -22,0 88677 -22,0 128267 -25,0 93728 -21,0 95218 -21,0 139468 -24,0 121415 -19,0 123863 -19,0 150490 -23,0 145283 -12,0 147878 -12,0 166114 -22,0 164645 -9,0 168024 -9,0 190415 -15,0 169582 -8,0 173026 -8,0 197416 -14,0 174073 -7,0 177558 -7,0 206370 -12,0 177023 -6,0 180579 -6,0 216627 -2,0 181992 -2,0 185640 -2,0 217383 -1,0 184348 0,6 188050 0,7 218104 218779 0,4 Trang 129 08 09 TT 1995 - 2000 QUÁ TRÌNH CÔNG TÁC TT 2001-2003 2004 - 2009 1976 Thái Bình ... Kiên Giang Trang 22 Hình 1.6 Trang 23 LONG 2.1 Hình 2.1 - Trang 24 Theo Q có -TTg ngày 27/5/2009, h c tiêu - - - : - -TTg ngày 25/9/2012, tri toàn vùng n dâng 10 -2020, 2020- Trang 25 T Hình... 2007) Theo - 2007 Hình 1.2) Hình 1.2 Trang 16 1.2 o Trang 17 1,5o 0,9o o 0,5o 0,6o o Nhi (oC) Vùng khí h u Tháng I Tháng VII 1,4 0,5 0,5 cB 1,5 0,3 0,6 ng b ng B c B 1,4 0,5 0,6 B c Trung B 1,3 0,5... 0,10 0,48 0,4 3,18 1,56 0,63 0,45 0,4 3,04 Hình 2.5 M Bm=7,5m; 8m, Hình 2.6 750 HÀNH LANG AN TÒAN ĐÊ = 18m 200 m Kênh lấy đất kết hợp kênh tiêu 300 = = m 300 2000 Hình 2.6: 300 Trang 31 : C 500m