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Ảnh hưởng của một số tính cách đến dự định đầu tư cổ phiếu trong tương lai của nhà đầu tư cá nhân trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam: nghiên cứu vai trò trung gian của nhận thức rủi ro, nhận thức không chắc chắn và kết quả đầu tư.Ảnh hưởng của một số tính cách đến dự định đầu tư cổ phiếu trong tương lai của nhà đầu tư cá nhân trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam: nghiên cứu vai trò trung gian của nhận thức rủi ro, nhận thức không chắc chắn và kết quả đầu tư.Ảnh hưởng của một số tính cách đến dự định đầu tư cổ phiếu trong tương lai của nhà đầu tư cá nhân trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam: nghiên cứu vai trò trung gian của nhận thức rủi ro, nhận thức không chắc chắn và kết quả đầu tư.Ảnh hưởng của một số tính cách đến dự định đầu tư cổ phiếu trong tương lai của nhà đầu tư cá nhân trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam: nghiên cứu vai trò trung gian của nhận thức rủi ro, nhận thức không chắc chắn và kết quả đầu tư.Ảnh hưởng của một số tính cách đến dự định đầu tư cổ phiếu trong tương lai của nhà đầu tư cá nhân trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam: nghiên cứu vai trò trung gian của nhận thức rủi ro, nhận thức không chắc chắn và kết quả đầu tư.Ảnh hưởng của một số tính cách đến dự định đầu tư cổ phiếu trong tương lai của nhà đầu tư cá nhân trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam: nghiên cứu vai trò trung gian của nhận thức rủi ro, nhận thức không chắc chắn và kết quả đầu tư.Ảnh hưởng của một số tính cách đến dự định đầu tư cổ phiếu trong tương lai của nhà đầu tư cá nhân trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam: nghiên cứu vai trò trung gian của nhận thức rủi ro, nhận thức không chắc chắn và kết quả đầu tư.
OFinEDUCATION AND TRAINING The thesis MINISTRY was completed University of Economics HCM City UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH Supervisors: Associate Professor, PhD Trần Hà Minh Quân CITY -PhD Ngô Quang Huân Reviewer 1: NGUYỄN HỮU THO ………………………………………………………………………… ………………………………………………………………………… THE EFFECT OF BIG FIVE TRAITS ON ……………………………………………………………………… Reviewer INVESTMENT INTENTIONS: THE ROLE OF ………………………………………………………………………… MEDIATORS OF RISK PERCEPTION, ………………………………………………………………………… UNCERTAINTY PERCEPTION AND ………………………………………………………………………… Reviewer INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE ………………………………………………………………………… Major: Business Administration ………………………………………………………………………… Code: 9340101 ……………………………………………………………………… SUMMARY OF PhD THESIS The thesis will be presented to the university-level thesis evaluation board at:……… At time date month year…2022 The thesis can be found at: Ho Chi Minh City - 2022 ………………………………………………………………………… ……………………………………………………………………… THE LIST OF PUBLICATIONS RELATED TO THE DISERTATION TT Name of articles “The effect of Year Type of paper risk perception and uncertainty perception 01 on investment performance and intentions in the Vietnam stock 2020 Article 2020 Article 2020 Article market.” Nguyễn Hữu Thọ, Trần Hà Minh Quân, Tăng Vũ Hùng The effect of Big Five Traits on stock investment intentions: The mediators of risk perception, uncertainty 02 perception and performance investment (Vietnamese version) Nguyễn Hữu Thọ, Trần Hà Minh Quân 03 The Impacts of the Big Five Traits on the Intention of Stock Investment through Uncertainty, and Performance Perception Risk, Investment (English version) Nguyễn Hữu Thọ, Trần Hà Minh Quân CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH THESIS 1.1 Research problem 1.1.1 Current stock investment in Vietnam Individual investors are the key contributors to the development of Vietnam's stock market There have been close to 2,8 million trading accounts owned by individual investors in 2020, individual investors make up by 99.5% of the total investors trading in the stock market However, individual investors also experienced many tough periods due to the fluctuation of stock prices, ups and downs Namely, when the world faced the global financial crisis in 2007, surprisingly, the VN-INDEX index increased dramatically, leading the stock market to become the "hottest" market According to Stock Market Magazine (cafef.vn, 2007), individual investors used high leverage to buy stocks, for example, debt ratio of 1:3 (for every VND, investors can borrow more VND) As a result, when stock prices went down sharply, especially, in the period 2009-2010, a large number of investors fell into heavy debt, even went bankruptcy Recently, in 2020, according to Vietnam Economic Review (VnEconomy), when the stock market recovered, the VN index reached from 915 points (October 1, 2020) to 1,015 points (December 31, 2020), causing investors to consider it as an opportunity to earn higher returns than bank savings So, they withdrew their bank deposits to buy stocks However, after only a few trading sessions, the VN index dropped 90 points, from 1,125 points (January 19, 2021) to 1,035 points (January 28, 2021), investors faced huge losses Importantly, when the stock market plunged continuously, plus the COVID-19 outbreak (January 2021), investors sold stocks at any cost and accepted to sell at low prices to cut losses When faced a large loss, investors may be discouraged and not want to invest in stocks, which may lead them to change from stock investment to other channels such as bank savings, gold savings, foreign currencies trading Therefore, it needs to have more interventions to help investors reduce their concerns, enhance awareness of financial investment as part of accumulated and longterm savings and have more positive attitudes towards stock investment, which all make them to continue to invest in the stock market 1.1.2 Gaps in literature Literature finds the role of personality traits in investment decisions, and confirms that a better understanding of personality traits helps investors (investors) be more cautious in decisionmaking, and as a result, have more effective results in stock investment and continue investing in the stock market (Aren et al., 2021; Aren & Hamamcı, 2020; Akhtar & Batool, 2012; Mayfield et al., 2008; Nandan & Saurabh, 2016) Big Five Traits exert an influence on investment intentions, namely: openness (Aren & Hamamcı, 2020; Akhtar & Batool, 2012); conscientiousness (Aren et al., 2021; Akhtar & Batool, 2012; Nandan & Saurabh, 2016); extraversion (Nandan & Saurabh, 2016; Mayfield et al., 2008); agreeableness (Aren et al., 2021; Nandan & Saurabh, 2016); and neuroticism (Aren et al., 2021; Aren & Hamamcı, 2020; Nandan & Saurabh, 2016; Mayfield et al., 2008) Mayfield et al (2008) find that only one out of five traits: openness has a direct impact on long-term investment intentions This may lead to an argument that the nature of personality traits cannot fully explain decision making Instead, it needs to think about possible risks of stocks and achieved results before making an investment decision (Nandan and Saurabh, 2016; Trang & Khuong, 2017; Trang & Tho, 2017) Risk perception is a contributor to investment results (Hoffmann et al., 2015; Lim et al., 2016; Trang & Khuong, 2017; Trang & Tho, 2017) The risk-return tradeoff is a well-known concept that is derived from finance theory: traditional and modern finance theory (behavioral finance) Traditional financial theory – such as the Capital Asset Pricing Model – CAPM demonstrates a positive relationship between risk and return: the higher the risk, the higher the expected return Proponents of behavioral finance also find a positive association between perceived risk and perceived investment returns (Hoffmann et al., 2015; Lim et al., 2016; Trang & Khuong, 2017; Trang & Tho, 2017) Risk perception is also a mediator between personality traits and investment results and investment decisions (Trang & Khuong, 2017; Trang & Tho, 2017) However, risk perception (and uncertainty perception) as mediators remain limited in the literature, particularly, in financial decisions This study, therefore, will examine this and expects to contribute to theory and practice In fact, some effective investors want to continue investing, and investors are not have profit investing in securities, they want to leave the market, so the study proposes factors affecting individual investors' intention to continue investing in securities (stocks) by combining with three fundamental theories: (i) trait theory, (ii) financial theory : includes traditional finance with modern finance, and (iii) theory of planned behavior (TPB) 10 Trait Theory 22 either positive or negative, because perceived risk and expected return depend on the investor's perspectives (Kahneman & Tversky 1979; Statman, 2005; Ackert, 2014; Baker & Ricciardi 2014) Investors not always make rational decisions to achieve optimal returns (Statman, 2005) Instead, they can sell stocks to avoid losses (Kahneman & Tversky 1979; Ackert, 2014; Baker & Ricciardi 2014) The study is based on financial theory (traditional and behavioral) to examine the relationship between perceived risk (uncertainty) and investor's expected returns Knight (1921) distinguishes the difference between risk and uncertainty as follows: both are relative to the risks, but differ only in knowing or not knowing the probability of success in stock investment Therefore, the perceived risk of a stock investment is the level of risk perceived by investors when the probability of success is known Perceived uncertainty about stock investment is the degree of uncertainty perceived by investors when the probability of success is unknown Given this distinction, the study examines the level of risk and uncertainty perceived by investors when investing in stocks 2.3 Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) was developed from the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) (Fishbein, 1967; Ajzen & Fishbein, 1975) According to TRA, attitudes towards a behaviour and subjective norms are the two main predictors of behavioral intentions Later, Ajzen (1991) suggest an additional factor “perceived behavioral control” to reflect the ease or difficulty of performing a behavior The study uses the TPB to examine investors' intentions to invest in stocks, as greater intentions to perform a behaviour result in higher actual stock investment (Ajzen, 1991) 23 2.4 Related literature and hypotheses formation 2.4.1 Direct impacts Openness: People prone to openness are often highly imaginative, innovative and tend to use information in their decisions (McCrae & Costa, 1997; Mayfield et al., 2008; Pinjisakikool, 2018) Previous studies find a relationship between openness and investment intentions short-term investment intentions is positive (Akhtar & Batool, 2012; Nandan & Saurabh, 2016; Aren & Hamamcı, 2020); negative (Mayfield et al., 2008; Nandan & Saurabh, 2016); and insignificant (Mayfield et al., 2008; Aren et al., 2021) This study proposes hypothesis H1.1 as follows: H1.1: Openness has a positive effect on investment intentions Conscientiousness: People with conscientiousness are often strong-willed, goal-oriented, and successful-oriented (McCrae & Costa, 1997; Pinjisakikool, 2018) Most studies have found a relationship between conscientiousness and investment intentions to be positive (Nandan & Saurabh, 2016; Aren et al., 2021); and insginificant (Mayfield et al., 2008; Nandan & Saurabh, 2016; Aren & Hamamcı, 2020) Based on evidence, hypothesis H1.2 is proposed as follows: H1.2: Conscientiousness has a positive effect on investment intentions Extraversion: Extraverts are usually positive thinkers (Peterson, 2007; Davidson and Begley, 2012), engaged in risky activities and less averse to losses (Benischke et al., 2019) Several studies have found a linkage between extraversion and investment intentions to be positive (Mayfield et al., 2008; Nandan & Saurabh, 2016); negative (Nandan & Saurabh, 2016); and insignificant 24 (Mayfield et al., 2008; Aren & Hamamcı, 2020; Aren et al., 2021) Based on these results, this study proposes hypothesis H1.3: H1.3: Extraversion has a positive effect on investment intentions Agreeableness: Agreeable people tend to have a positive mindset and are capable of building good relationships with others (Durand et al., 2008; Mayfield et al., 2008; Becker et al., 2008; Davidson & Begley, 2012) Several studies find a link of agreeableness to investment intentions to be positive (Nandan & Saurabh, 2016); negative (Aren et al., 2021) and insignificant (Mayfield et al., 2008; Nandan & Saurabh, 2016; Aren & Hamamcı, 2020) Based on the results, hypothesis H1.4 is proposed: H1.4: Agreeableness has a positive effect on investment intentions Neuroticism: Neurotics often have emotional instability, anxiety, and low self-control (McCrae & Costa, 1997; Mayfield et al., 2008) The effect of neuroticism on investment intention is positive (Aren & Hamamci, 2020; Aren et al., 2021); negative (Mayfield et al., 2008; Nandan & Saurabh, 2016; Nandan & Saurabh, 2016); and insginificant (Mayfield et al., 2008) Based on evidence, hypothesis H1.5 is suggested as follows: H1.5: Neuroticism has a negative effect on investment intentions Previous studies have found that risk-taking behavior has a positive association with openness, conscientiousness and neuroticism and negative with agreeableness (Soane & Chmiel, 2005; Dohmen et al., 2010; Pan & Chmiel et al Statman, 2013; Wong & Carducci, 2013; Pak and Mahmood, 2015; Pinjisakikool, 2018) Trang & Khuong (2017) find that openness, extroversion, and neuroticism are positively related to uncertainty perception and 25 extraversion has an impact on risk perception Based on the results, the following hypotheses are proposed: H2.1 - H2.5: Openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness have a positive and neuroticism has a negative effect influence on risk perception H3.1 - H3.5: Openness, conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness have a positive and neuroticism has a negative effect on uncertainty perception Several studies have found the influence of perceived risk and perceived uncertainty on investment results (Lim et al., 2016; Trang & Khuong, 2017; Trang & Tho, 2017; Akhtar & Das, 2020) Therefore, hypotheses H4 and H5 are suggested: H4-H5: Perceived risk and uncertainty have a positive influence on investment results Previous studies have also found the effect of investment performance on investment decisions (Gopi & Ramayah, 2007; Ramayah et al., 2009; Phan & Zhou, 2014; Nandan & Saurabh, 2016; Aren & Hamamci, 2020; Shehata et al., 2021) Therefore, this study proposes hypothesis H6: H6: Investment results have a positive effect on investment intentions 2.4.2 Indirect impacts Some studies have found the mediating role of risk perception, uncertainty perception and investment performance, including: financial risk (Nandan & Saurabh, 2016); positive mood (Trang, Khuong & Tho, 2016); uncertainty perception (Trang & Khuong, 2017); attitude to investment perception (Akhtar & Das, 2019); take H5 26 risking (Akhtar & Das, 2020); investment results (Trang & Tho, H6 2017) Therefore, hypothesis H7 proposes as follows: H7: Risk perception, uncertainty Uncertainty perception H7 investment performance the impacts of the perception and are mediation role between intentions resultson Investment BigInvest-ment Five Traits the Intention of Stock H2 Investment 2.4.3 Research models BIG FIVE TRAITS Based on Trait Theory, Finance Theory and Theory of Risk perception1 - Openness - Extraversion - Agreeableness - Neuroticism H1 H3 Planned Behaviour, the research model is suggested in Figure 2.1 - Conscientiousness H4 Source: Suggested by Author Direct effect, indirect effect Figure 2.1 Conceptual framework Model 27 CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHOD 3.1 Research process This study implemented qualitative and quantitative approaches, with three phases: (i) in-dept interviews to financial experts, (ii) a preliminary test with 265 investors and (iii) final surveys to 600 investors and received 465 responses with full information, being 78% response rates These interviews aimed to develop the scales of risk and uncertainty perceptions and adjust the questions of personality traits, investment results and investment intentions to be more readable and understandable The preliminary test aimed to examine the reliability of the scales and explore the factor loadings After that, final surveys were sent 465 investors through web-based surveys such as Zalo, Facebook, and emails, and paper-based surveys to investigate the hypotheses and respond to the research questions and objectives of the study 3.2 Scales of variables for the preliminary test (N=265) Based on the results of qualitative method, the original scales for the preliminary test consist of nine scales with thirty-eight observed variables presented in Table 3.1 All questions are a 5Likert scale with for totally disagree to for totally agree 3.3 Analysis of the preliminary test This study examined the coefficient reliability of the scales After removing observed variables with their coefficient correlation less than 0.3 (OPEN5, CON4, EXT3, EXT4, AGR4, RISK3, RISK4, UNCE3, UNCE4), all scales each have Cronbach's Alpha greater than 0.7 and the total correlation of the observed variables in each scale greater than 0.3 28 Table 3.1 Scales of variables - the preliminary test Observed Original scales Authors variables Openness Kovaleva & et al (2013) Conscientiousness Kovaleva & et al (2013) Extraversion Kovaleva & et al (2013) Agreeableness Kovaleva & et al (2013) Neuroticism Kovaleva & et al (2013) Risk perception Knight (1921) and Qualitative Knight (1921) and Qualitative Lương & Hà (2011) Uncertainty perception Investment results Investment Dodds & et al (1991); intentions Total Sodelund & Ohman, (2003) 38 Source: Adjusted from Authors After exploratory factor analysis (EFA), observed variables (NEU1, NEU3, OPEN4) were removed due to factor loading less than 0.4 The EFA results (N=265) including scales with 26 corresponding observed variables (see Table 3.2) are used for the official study (N=465) 29 Table 3.2 A summary of scales and observed variables for the official study (N=465) Variables/scales Questions Openness (OPEN) OPEN1 I highly value artistic and aesthetic experiences OPEN2 I am curious about many different things OPEN3 I have an active imagination Conscientiousness (CON) CON1 I things efficiently CON2 I a thorough job CON3 I make plans and follow through with them Extraversion (EXT) EXT1 I am outgoing and sociable EXT2 I generate a lot of enthusiasm Agreeableness (AGR) AGR1 I generally trust others* AGR2 I tend to find fault with others* AGR3 I can be cold and aloof * Neuroticism (NEU) NEU2 I get nervous easily NEU4 I am relaxed and handle stress well* Risk perception (RISK): Even though I know the probability of getting good results when investing in stocks , I still feel it is a risky investment RISK1 Warned, controlled or suspended for trading RISK2 Under 10,000 VND 30 Uncertainty perception (UNCE) If I don't know the probability of getting a good result when investing in stocks…, I feel it is an uncertain investment UNCE1 Warned, controlled or suspended for trading UNCE2 Under 10,000 VND Investment results (RETU) RETU1 RETU2 RETU3 The return rate of the recent stock investment meets my expectation The rate of returns this year are equal to or higher than last year Over the past year, I have been satisfied with the results of stock investment Investment intentions (INTE) INTE1 I intend to invest in stocks in the next months INTE2 I plan to invest in stocks in the next months INTE3 I want to invest in stocks in the next months INTE4 I will invest in stocks in the next months INTE5 I am willing to invest in stocks in the next months INTE6 I would like to invest in stocks in the next months Source: Adjusted from Authors 31 CHAPTER 4: RESEARCH RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4.1 Sample description (N=465) This study with 465 individual investors is summarized as: male investors accounts for 57% and female investors for 43% of the sample, with 80% under the age of 35 and 44% of married investors Most investors have a university degree or higher and have less than years of experience in stock investment Most investors have an income of less than 12 million VND/month, live in Ho Chi Minh City and have investment amount of less than 300 million VND 4.2 Main results This research model includes scales to test the hypotheses suggested above This study carried out the following tests: reliability coefficient (Cronbach’s Alpha), exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) After that, this study tests the hypotheses through structural equation modeling method (SEM) Figure 4.1: SEM model 32 Chi-square = 454,892 # 0, Chi-square/df = 1,679 < 3, Df = 271, TLI = 0.968 > 0,9, CFI = 0,973 > 0,9, MRSEA = 0,038 < 0,06 Note: *: p