Financial Modeling with Crystal Ball and Excel Chapter 4 pot

... in Figure 4. 24. For example, we chose to rank with the FIGURE 4. 27 Goodness-of-fit statistics for data in file Lognormal.xls. 52 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 4. 19 Mixture ... is lognormally distributed. 46 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 4. 11 Triangular(90,100,110) assumption used for modeling revenue in Fig...

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... to offer for sale in its retail stores and affiliated pro shops. It plans to 28 32 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 3 .4 Defining the demand assumption for the Alaskan Golf purchase ... section, we will add assumptions and a forecast to the deterministic model in AKGolf.xls to create a stochastic model. 30 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL A...

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... through K are hidden. 94 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL different values for Abandon Point and seven different values for Expansion Point. If we used more values with Decision Table, ... second quarter of year, and abandon the project if three consecutive quarters of cash flow below −$6 occur; and (2) expand if 88 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL...

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... should lose 140 146 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL TABLE 10.2 VaR and CVaR for independent investments modeled in CVaRSubadditivity.xls. 1% VaR 1% CVaR Total Loss $ 209.51 $ 4, 687 Loss1 ... $ 2 ,40 7 opportunities with potential losses X 1 and X 2 .BothX 1 and X 2 loss distributions have Pareto distributions with Location Parameter =1andShape Param...

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... FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 11.8 Crystal Ball model on the ‘‘Vector Random Walk’’ worksheet of RandomWalkWithDrift.xls for forecasting a vector time series with a random ... the observation at time t = 30 for the random process. 158 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 11.10 Crystal Ball model for forecasting wi...

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... Crystal Ball Assumptions 36 Crystal Ball s Basic Distributions 36 Using Historical Data to Choose Distributions 54 Specifying Correlations 63 vii 10 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL ■ Crystal ... approximation to reality. 4 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL In short, probability and statistics help you weigh the potential re...

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... displayed, the value $3,775,8 24 for the mean in Figure 2 .4 is calculated from all 10,000 trials of the simulation. 16 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 2 .4 Forecast chart statistics ... is $4, 985,2 34. This means that 80 percent of the forecast values were less than that amount, while 20 percent were greater than that amount. Note 24 FINANCIAL MOD...

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... FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL and wish to do things Excel doesn’t already do, or you wish to do extra processing during each trial of the simulation, see the Crystal Ball User Manual ... here. FIGURE 6.8 Run Preferences Statistics tab. 96 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 6.1 Run Preferences Trials tab. Crystal Ball...

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... 3, 4, and 5, where each Z t is drawn from a 116 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 7.11 Spider chart. analysis of the relationships between the randomly generated inputs and ... Forecast for ScooterSimulation.xls. 118 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL between e 1,t and e 2,t is 0.8, while the correlation between e 1,t and e...

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... up with a good model for defining sales assumptions. 128 FINANCIAL MODELING WITH CRYSTAL BALL AND EXCEL FIGURE 8 .4 Crystal Ball model for income statement in Sengupta2.xls. Cells J6, J7, J10,andJ12 ... Cells J6, J7, J10,andJ12 are Crystal Ball assumptions, and I3 is a forecast. FIGURE 8.5 Tornado chart for Crystal Ball model in Sengupta2.xls. The values of the...

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