Tru&c tien, ta ch~y mo hinh hBi quy cho phuong trinh (1):
d bu&c sa khm nay chl:mg ta chua xet dSn S\f tuong tac gitra kiSu hfii va phat triSn tai chinh, do d6 chua dua b&t k)r biSn nao d~i di~n cho phat triSn tai chinh vao mo hinh ca.
Sir d\ffig phuong phap u&c luQTig SGMM v&i dtr li~u bang Panel Data cho
40 nu&c dang phat triSn co thu nh~p th&p va trung binh trong giai do~n 1995 - 2012, ta duqc bang sau kSt qua hBi quy nhu sau:
Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step system GMM
Group variable: countryno Number of obs = 306 Time variable : year Number of groups = 38 Number of instruments = 23 obs per group: min = 1
F(8, 38) = 75.24 avg = 8.05
Prob > F = 0.000 max = 16
corrected
lngdpgrowth coef. Std. Err. t P>ltl [95% conf. Interval] lningdpgro ... h .4467331 .1692693 2.64 0.012 .1040654 .7894009 lnpopgrowth -.2252628 .2070029 -1.09 0.283 -.6443183 .1937926 govfiscalbal .0137777 .0182001 0.76 0.454 -.0230665 .0506218 lninvgdp .3640421 .3193632 1.14 0.261 -.2824748 1.010559 lnyearedu -.1470362 .431059 -0.34 0.735 -1.01967 .7255971 lnopenness .003196 .1737776 0.02 0.985 -.3485984 .3549905 inflation -.0055518 .0120247 -0.46 0.647 -.0298946 .0187911 remgdp -.0096489 .0261469 -0.37 0.714 -.0625806 .0432828 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -2.51 Pr > z = 0.012 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z ; 0.68 Pr > z = 0.496 Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(15) = 17.17 Prob > chi2 = 0.309
Bang 4.1 KSt qua mo hinh hBi quy tac d()ng cua kiSu h6i va tang truemg
KSt qua ch~y mo hinh SGMM a bang 4.1 cho th~y r~ng, tac d()ng cua kiSu h6i len S\f tang tu(mg la khong CO y nghia th6ng ke pgay ca v<Ji illUC y nghia 1 0% vi gia tti Pvalue= 0.714 > > 0.1.
Khi khong c6 S\f tuong tac gifra kiSu h6i va S\f phat triSn tai chinh, ban than kiSu h6i v6n mang y nghia la dong tiSn danh cho tieu dung, do d6 kiSu h6i chuySn vS nucrc se chi dugc sir dl,mg cho mvc dich la chi tieu nhu c~u thiSt ySu cua gia dinh ho~c nSu c6 d~u tu thi cling chi nho Ie va thu6ng khong mang l~i
do, nguai di cu se sir d\}ng cts d~u tu t~i nuac sa ~i co ths se con mang I~i hi~u
qua va lgi nhu~ cao hon, sau d6 m6i giri khoan tiSn kiSu hdi d6 vS cho gia dinh va cling vfin v6i ffi\}C dich ph\}C V\1 cho tieu dung.
Ngo~i trir biSn trS cua tang truang la lningdpgrowth c6 y nghia thdng ke a muc 5%, cac biSn con I~i ctsu khong co y nghia thBng ke.
Bu6c tiSp theo, chung ta se Ik lugt dua tirng biSn d~i di~n cho phat triSn tai chinh vao mo hinh, ffi\}C dich dS danh gia xem v6i S\f xu&t hi~n cua biSn nay thi S\f tuong tac qua l~i gifra kiSu hdi, phat triSn tai chinh va tang truang se nhu
thS nao. KSt qua li~u c6 gidng nhu nhfrng nghien cl:ru tru6c day r~ng la kiSu hdi se tac d()ng cung chiSu vm tang truoog?
Bang du6i thS hi~n kSt qua cua mo hinh hBi quy SGMM sau khi da dua m()t trong bdn biSn d~i di~n cho phat triSn tai chinh la Deposit vao mo hinh.
DBng thai chung ta cling t~o m()t biSn tuong tac thS hi~n sg tuong tac qua l~i
Dynamic panel-data estimation, two-step system GMM
Group variable: countryno Number of obs = 295 Time variable : year Number of groups = 37 Number of instruments = 24 obs per group: min = 2
F(10, 37) = 48.80 avg = 7.97
Prob > F = 0.000 max = 16
--··--·--·-·--····-···-··--·--···-------·-----·-------~-~---····---···--·--·------------------------------~-·
corrected
lngdpgrowth coef. Std. Err. t P>ltl [95% conf. Interval]
------~~-----...... ·----~-~~"'"···- ~----------------··-······~·•·»-•·- -····---------------~--------··-···-··--·----·- ·······-··········-····--·-------~----········-·······--···---~----···---------·····-···------··--..--·--·-··-~---·-·-···~······-----· lningdpgro-h .429152 .2101628 2.04 0.048 .0033218 .8549822 lningdpgro-h .429152 .2101628 2.04 0.048 .0033218 .8549822 lnpopgrowth -.4844074 .2395125 -2.02 0.050 -.9697058 .0008911 govfiscalbal .0141762 .019975 0.71 0.482 -.0262971 .0546494 lninvgdp .3886606 .3112036 1.25 0.220 -.2418979 1.019219 lnyearedu -.0473779 .4195879 -0.11 0.911 -.8975438 .802788 lnopenness .1144617 .1601607 0.71 0.479 -.2100548 .4389781 inflation -.0131688 .0119203 -1.10 0.276 -.0373217 .0109841 remgdp -.071846 .028796 -2.49 0.017 -.1301923 -.0134998 depgdp -.0135997 .0050066 -2.72 0.010 -.023744 -.0034555 remgdpdepgdp .0013687 .0005279 2.59 0.014 .0002991 .0024383 Arellano-Bond test for AR(l) in first differences: z = -2.10 Pr > z = 0.036 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = 0.68 Pr > z = 0.497