CHƢƠNG 5 : KẾT LUẬN, GIẢI PHÁP VÀ HẠN CHẾ CỦA ĐỀ TÀI
5.3. Hạn chế của nghiên cứu
Mặc dù đã cố gắng rất nhiều, nhưng theo tác giả, đề tài vẫn còn một số hạn chế. Về mặt số liệu thống kê, ước lượng mơ hình: vì chỉ tiêu nợ cơng là một chỉ tiêu khó tổng hợp đầy đủ và chính xác ví dụ như đối với các khoản nợ vay nước ngoài của các con nợ không cư trú ở nội địa, nợ của chính quyền địa phương...rất khó thu thập. Nên kết quả ước lượng có được trong nghiên cứu có thể sẽ khơng chính xác. Do thống kê tài chính trong nước khơng đầy đủ và rất khó tiếp cận nên nghiên cứu sử dụng số liệu từ các tổ chức tài chính quốc tế nên có thể sẽ có một số điểm khác biệt với các số liệu báo cáo trong nước, điều này có thể do phương pháp, cách phân bổ khác nhau và khái niệm về nợ công giữa các tổ chức khác nhau không thống nhất.
Thực tế qua số liệu thống kê trong nghiên cứu này, tỷ lệ nợ công trên GDP của Việt Nam theo WB tổng hợp trong những năm gần đây chỉ xoay quanh mức 40%-50%. Qua số liệu của cả giai đoạn 1986-2013, ngưỡng nợ cơng tìm được tại mơ hình là
62,61%. Trong khi đó, trên các phương tiện thông tin đại chúng và số liệu phổ biến trên các trang mạng điện tử lại cho rằng nợ cơng Việt Nam có khả năng đạt đến mức 100% nếu tính đầy đủ tất cả các khoản nợ của doanh nghiệp nhà nước khơng được Chính phủ bảo lãnh nợ và nợ đọng xây dựng cơ bản.
Mẫu quan sát tương đối nhỏ (27 quan sát, theo số liệu năm 1987 - 2013), nếu số liệu của Việt Nam được phản ảnh theo quý, thì số mẫu quan sát nhiều hơn và kết quả đo lường kinh tế lượng sẽ chuẩn xác hơn.
TÀI LIỆU THAM KHẢO
Danh mục tài liệu tiếng Việt
1. Luật quản lý nợ công số 29/2009/QH12 ngày 17/6/2009 của Quốc hội khóa XII. kỳ họp thứ 5.
2. Phạm Thị Thanh Bình. 2013. Vấn đề nợ công ở một số nước trên thế giới và hành
ý chính sách đối với Việt Nam. Hà Nội: Nhà xuất bản Khoa học xã hội.
Danh mục tài liệu tiếng nƣớc ngoài
1. A.Baum, C.C.Westphal, P.Rother. 2012. Debt and growth new evidence for the euro area. European Central Bank.
2. A.Greiner, 2011. Sustainability of public debt: Some theoretical considerations.
Economics Bulletin. p.3311-3319.
3. A.T.Fonseka, S.S.Ranasinghe, 2008. Sustainability of Sri Lanka's Public Debt.
Sri Lankan Journal of Management. 13(1 and 2). p.185-212.
4. Adam.C.S., Bevan.D.L., 2005. Fiscal deficits and growth in developing countries. Journal of Public Economics.
5. Alfredo Schclarek, 2004. Debt and Economic Growth in developing and
Industrial Countries. [pdf] Available at:
<http://project.nek.lu.se/publications/workpap/Papers/WP05_34.pdf>
6. Andrea F.Presbitero, 2010. Total public debt and growth in developing countries. [pdf] Available at: <http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/conferences/2011-EDiA/papers/608- Presbitero.pdf>
7. Andrea F.Presbitero, 2012. Total Public Debt and Growth in Developing countries. European Journal of Development Research forthcoming.
8. C.Checherita, P.Rother, 2010. The impact of high and growing government debt
on economic growth an empirical investigation for the euro area. European Central
Bank.
9. C.M.Reinhart, K.S.Rogoff, 2010a. Debt and Growth Revisited. VoxEU.org. C.M.Reinhart, K.S.Rogoff, 2010b. Growth in a Time of Debt. American Economic Review 100(2).
10. C.M.Reinhart, V.R.Reinhart, K.S.Rogoff, 2012. Public debt overhangs: Advanced economy episodes since 1800. Journal of Economic Perspective. 26(3). p.
69-86.
11. Catherine Pattillo, Helene Poirson and Luca Ricci, 2011. External Debt and Growth. Review of Economics and Insitutions 2 (3).
12. Catherine Pattillo, Helene Poirson, Luca Ricci, 2004. What are the channels through which external debt affects growth? IMF Working Paper. p.1-33.
13. Clements B., Bhattacharya.R., 2003. External debt. Public investment and
Growth in Low income countries. IMF Working Paper.
14. Cottarelli, Carlo, 2011. The Risk Octagon: A Comprehensive Framework For
Assessing Sovereign Risks. [pdf] Available at:
<http://www.imf.org/external/np/fad/news/2011/docs/Cottarelli1.pdf>
15. Cristina Checherita, Philipp Rother, 2010. The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth. An empirical investigation for the Euro area.
Working paper series. No.1237.
16. Cunningham.R.T, 1993. The effects of debt burden on economic growth in
heavily indebted developing nations. Journal of Economic Development. 18(1).
17. D.Ekanayake, 2011. Assessing Government Debt Sustainability in Sri Lanka.
[pdf] Available at:
http://www.cbsl.gov.lk/pics_n_docs/10_pub/_docs/IRC/2011/Govt._Debt_Full.pdf
18. Fabrizio Balassone, Maura Francese, Angelo Pace, 2011. Public debt and
economic growth in Italy. [pdf] Available at:
<http://w3.uniroma1.it/ecspc/Balassone_Francese_Pace_draft_020911_.pdf>
19. Fosu Augustin Kwasi, 2008. The External Debt-Servicing Constraint and Public expenditure Composition: Evidence from African Economies. [pdf]
Available at: <http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/conferences/2008-edia/papers/279- fosu.pdf>
20. Hemantha Kumara, N.S.Cooray, 2013. Public debt and economic growth in Sri
Lanka: Is there any threshold level for public debt? [pdf] Available at:
<http://nirr.lib.niigata-u.ac.jp/bitstream/10623/44242/1/EMS_2013_22.pdf>
21. Krugman Paul, 1988. Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang. [pdf] Available at: <http://www.nber.org/papers/w2486.pdf>.
22. Lin.S, 2000. Government debt and economic growth in an overlapping
generations model. Southern Economic Journal. 66(3). p.754-763.
23. Lin.S., Sosin.K., 2001. Foreign Debt and Economic Growth. Economics of
Transition. 9(3). p.635-665.
24. M.Safdari, M.A.Mehriz, 2011. External debt and economic growth in Iran.
Journal of Economics and International Finance. p.322-327.
25. Manmohan S.Kumar, Jaejoon Woo, 2010. Public debt and growth. IMF Working Paper. WP/10/174.
26. Musebu Sichula, 2012. Debt Overhang and Economic Growth in HIPC Countries: The Case of Southern African Development Community (SADC). [pdf]
Available at:
<http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/viewFile/20317/13640>
27. Pham The Anh, 2011. Public debt of Vietnam: Risk and challenges. Journal of Economics and Development Vol.13. No.3. December 2011. pp. 5 – 23.
28. R.Jha, 2001. Macroeconomics of Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries.
WIDER Discussion Paper. 2001/71. p.1-39
29. S.Malik, M.K.Hayat, M.U.Hayat, 2010. External debt and economic growth: empirical evidence from Pakistan. International Research Journal of Finance and
Economics(44). p.1-10.
30. Tsangyao Chang, Gengnan Chiang, 2012. Transitional behavior of Government
debt ratio on growth: The case of OECD countries. Romanian Journal of Economic
Forecasting 2.
31. Ugo Panizza, Andrea F.Presbitero, 2012. Public debt and economic growth: Is
Website: 1. http://data.worldbank.org/country/vietnam 2. http://finance.vietstock.vn/du-lieu-vi-mo 3. http://tapchitaichinh.vn/Trao-doi-Binh-luan/Quan-he-phuc-tap-giua-tang-truong- kinh-te-va-no-cong/24254.tctc 4.http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/01/weodata/weoselco.aspx?g=2001 &sg=All+countries 5. http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock 6. http://www.gso.gov.vn 7. http://www.sbv.gov.vn Tạp chí:
Nguyễn Hữu Tuấn, 2012. Mối quan hệ nợ nước ngoài và tăng trưởng kinh tế Việt Nam. Tạp chí phát triển và hội nhập, số 4(14) – tháng 5,6/2012, p.21.
PHỤ LỤC
Bảng 4.2. Kết quả kiểm định dạng của chuỗi số liệu.
Biến gt
Dependent Variable: GT Method: Least Squares Date: 11/05/14 Time: 12:12 Sample: 1986 2013
Included observations: 28
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 12.46303 9.673498 1.288369 0.2090
@TREND() -0.027737 0.614888 -0.045109 0.9644 R-squared 0.000078 Mean dependent var 12.08859 Adjusted R-squared -0.038380 S.D. dependent var 25.79212 S.E. of regression 26.28241 Akaike info criterion 9.444426 Sum squared resid 17959.89 Schwarz criterion 9.539584 Log likelihood -130.2220 Hannan-Quynn criter. 9.473517 F-statistic 0.002035 Durbin-Watson stat 1.164191 Prob(F-statistic) 0.964365
Biến gdpp
Dependent Variable: GDPP Method: Least Squares Date: 11/05/14 Time: 12:17 Sample: 1986 2013
Included observations: 28
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -61.57064 103.9083 -0.592548 0.5586 @TREND() 51.93462 6.604843 7.863111 0.0000 R-squared 0.703969 Mean dependent var 639.5467 Adjusted R-squared 0.692583 S.D. dependent var 509.1757 S.E. of regression 282.3136 Akaike info criterion 14.19266 Sum squared resid 2072225. Schwarz criterion 14.28782
Log likelihood -196.6973 Hannan-Quynn criter. 14.22175 F-statistic 61.82852 Durbin-Watson stat 0.154644 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Biến ln(gdpp)t-1
Dependent Variable: LNGDPP Method: Least Squares Date: 11/05/14 Time: 12:20 Sample (adjusted): 1987 2013
Included observations: 27 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 4.953888 0.187955 26.35682 0.0000 @TREND() 0.081845 0.011732 6.976255 0.0000 R-squared 0.660640 Mean dependent var 6.099714 Adjusted R-squared 0.647066 S.D. dependent var 0.799242 S.E. of regression 0.474816 Akaike info criterion 1.419409 Sum squared resid 5.636257 Schwarz criterion 1.515396 Log likelihood -17.16202 Hannan-Quynn criter. 1.447951 F-statistic 48.66813 Durbin-Watson stat 0.489867 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Biến dtgdp
Dependent Variable: DTGDP Method: Least Squares Date: 11/05/14 Time: 12:23 Sample: 1986 2013
Included observations: 28
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 165.2282 31.90742 5.178364 0.0000 @TREND() -5.469557 2.028169 -2.696796 0.0121
R-squared 0.218579 Mean dependent var 91.38920 Adjusted R-squared 0.188524 S.D. dependent var 96.23555 S.E. of regression 86.69087 Akaike info criterion 11.83132 Sum squared resid 195398.0 Schwarz criterion 11.92648 Log likelihood -163.6385 Hannan-Quynn criter. 11.86041 F-statistic 7.272707 Durbin-Watson stat 0.671008 Prob(F-statistic) 0.012121
Biến ln(dtgdp)
Dependent Variable: LNDTGDP Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/05/14 Time: 12:32 Sample: 1986 2013
Included observations: 28
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 3.486174 0.584458 5.964797 0.0000 @TREND() 0.025340 0.037151 0.682096 0.5012 R-squared 0.017580 Mean dependent var 3.828268 Adjusted R-squared -0.020206 S.D. dependent var 1.572140 S.E. of regression 1.587943 Akaike info criterion 3.831506 Sum squared resid 65.56068 Schwarz criterion 3.926663 Log likelihood -51.64108 Hannan-Quynn criter. 3.860596 F-statistic 0.465255 Durbin-Watson stat 0.417573 Prob(F-statistic) 0.501210
Biến ln(dtgdp)2
Dependent Variable: LNDTGDP2 Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/05/14 Time: 12:35 Sample: 1986 2013
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 19.92719 3.296365 6.045202 0.0000 @TREND() -0.213941 0.209531 -1.021049 0.3166 R-squared 0.038552 Mean dependent var 17.03898 Adjusted R-squared 0.001573 S.D. dependent var 8.963111 S.E. of regression 8.956059 Akaike info criterion 7.291287 Sum squared resid 2085.486 Schwarz criterion 7.386444 Log likelihood -100.0780 Hannan-Quynn criter. 7.320377 F-statistic 1.042541 Durbin-Watson stat 0.561636 Prob(F-statistic) 0.316638
Biến gcf
Dependent Variable: GCFT Method: Least Squares Date: 11/05/14 Time: 12:37 Sample: 1986 2013
Included observations: 28
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 2.607055 5.882265 0.443206 0.6613 @TREND() -0.099941 0.373901 -0.267293 0.7914 R-squared 0.002740 Mean dependent var 1.257847 Adjusted R-squared -0.035616 S.D. dependent var 15.70460 S.E. of regression 15.98182 Akaike info criterion 8.449530 Sum squared resid 6640.883 Schwarz criterion 8.544687 Log likelihood -116.2934 Hannan-Quynn criter. 8.478620 F-statistic 0.071446 Durbin-Watson stat 1.419441 Prob(F-statistic) 0.791352
Biến popgt
Dependent Variable: POPGT Method: Least Squares Date: 11/05/14 Time: 12:39 Sample: 1986 2013
Included observations: 28
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 2.238393 0.059242 37.78369 0.0000
R-squared 0.885660 Mean dependent var 1.516953 Adjusted R-squared 0.881263 S.D. dependent var 0.467111 S.E. of regression 0.160958 Akaike info criterion -0.746593 Sum squared resid 0.673597 Schwarz criterion -0.651435 Log likelihood 12.45230 Hannan-Quynn criter. -0.717502 F-statistic 201.3928 Durbin-Watson stat 0.380962 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Biến totgt
Dependent Variable: TOTGT Method: Least Squares Date: 11/05/14 Time: 12:41 Sample: 1986 2013
Included observations: 28
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 16.37342 12.10118 1.353044 0.1877 @TREND() -0.733528 0.769201 -0.953623 0.3491 R-squared 0.033795 Mean dependent var 6.470799 Adjusted R-squared -0.003367 S.D. dependent var 32.82308 S.E. of regression 32.87829 Akaike info criterion 9.892251 Sum squared resid 28105.53 Schwarz criterion 9.987409 Log likelihood -136.4915 Hannan-Quynn criter. 9.921342 F-statistic 0.909396 Durbin-Watson stat 2.400455 Prob(F-statistic) 0.349057
Biến litgt
Dependent Variable: LITGT Method: Least Squares Date: 11/05/14 Time: 12:43 Sample: 1986 2013
Included observations: 28
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 5.249104 2.703691 1.941459 0.0631 @TREND() -0.181437 0.171858 -1.055738 0.3008 R-squared 0.041106 Mean dependent var 2.799705 Adjusted R-squared 0.004226 S.D. dependent var 7.361364 S.E. of regression 7.345793 Akaike info criterion 6.894882 Sum squared resid 1402.977 Schwarz criterion 6.990039 Log likelihood -94.52834 Hannan-Quynn criter. 6.923972 F-statistic 1.114584 Durbin-Watson stat 0.272767 Prob(F-statistic) 0.300800
Biến irt
Dependent Variable: IR Method: Least Squares Date: 02/01/15 Time: 20:30 Sample: 1986 2013
Included observations: 28
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 53.89818 9.381501 5.745155 0.0000 @TREND() -2.275394 0.596327 -3.815679 0.0008 R-squared 0.358965 Mean dependent var 23.18036 Adjusted R-squared 0.334310 S.D. dependent var 31.24050 S.E. of regression 25.48907 Akaike info criterion 9.383126 Sum squared resid 16892.01 Schwarz criterion 9.478283 Log likelihood -129.3638 Hannan-Quinn criter. 9.412216 F-statistic 14.55941 Durbin-Watson stat 1.736443 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000755
Biến giot
Dependent Variable: GIO Method: Least Squares Date: 02/01/15 Time: 20:36 Sample: 1986 2013
Included observations: 28
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 35.09128 4.326317 8.111119 0.0000 @TREND() 4.883122 0.274999 17.75688 0.0000 R-squared 0.923822 Mean dependent var 101.0134 Adjusted R-squared 0.920892 S.D. dependent var 41.79177 S.E. of regression 11.75439 Akaike info criterion 7.835080 Sum squared resid 3592.307 Schwarz criterion 7.930237 Log likelihood -107.6911 Hannan-Quinn criter. 7.864170 F-statistic 315.3069 Durbin-Watson stat 1.061127 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Biến bdtgdpt
Dependent Variable: BDTGDP Method: Least Squares Date: 02/01/15 Time: 20:37 Sample: 1986 2013
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -4.359256 0.835891 -5.215101 0.0000 @TREND() 0.034919 0.053133 0.657212 0.5168 R-squared 0.016341 Mean dependent var -3.887844 Adjusted R-squared -0.021492 S.D. dependent var 2.247056 S.E. of regression 2.271074 Akaike info criterion 4.547132 Sum squared resid 134.1023 Schwarz criterion 4.642290 Log likelihood -61.65985 Hannan-Quinn criter. 4.576223 F-statistic 0.431928 Durbin-Watson stat 1.288571 Prob(F-statistic) 0.516821
Bảng 4.3. Kết quả kiểm định tính dừng. Biến gt
Null Hypothesis: GT has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC. MAXLAG=3)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.517438 0.0014 Test critical values: 1% level -3.699871
5% level -2.976263
10% level -2.627420
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(GT)
Method: Least Squares Date: 11/05/14 Time: 12:53 Sample (adjusted): 1987 2013
Included observations: 27 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. GT(-1) -0.720109 0.159407 -4.517438 0.0001 C 6.060993 4.547647 1.332775 0.1946 R-squared 0.449427 Mean dependent var -2.730596 Adjusted R-squared 0.427404 S.D. dependent var 28.22404 S.E. of regression 21.35715 Akaike info criterion 9.031837 Sum squared resid 11403.19 Schwarz criterion 9.127825 Log likelihood -119.9298 Hannan-Quynn criter. 9.060379 F-statistic 20.40724 Durbin-Watson stat 1.674474 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000130
Biến gdppt
Null Hypothesis: GDPP has a unit root Exogenous: Constant. Linear Trend
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.421403 0.9813 Test critical values: 1% level -4.339330
5% level -3.587527
10% level -3.229230
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(GDPP)
Method: Least Squares Date: 11/05/14 Time: 12:54 Sample (adjusted): 1987 2013
Included observations: 27 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. GDPP(-1) -0.028196 0.066909 -0.421403 0.6772 C -75.16531 34.78386 -2.160925 0.0409 @TREND(1986) 10.46008 3.814887 2.741911 0.0114 R-squared 0.430823 Mean dependent var 54.57050 Adjusted R-squared 0.383391 S.D. dependent var 110.9867 S.E. of regression 87.15169 Akaike info criterion 11.87762 Sum squared resid 182290.0 Schwarz criterion 12.02160 Log likelihood -157.3478 Hannan-Quynn criter. 11.92043 F-statistic 9.083058 Durbin-Watson stat 1.633428 Prob(F-statistic) 0.001156
Biến ln(gdpp)t-1
Null Hypothesis: LNGDPP has a unit root Exogenous: Constant. Linear Trend
Lag Length: 3 (Automatic based on SIC. MAXLAG=3)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.391423 0.0772 Test critical values: 1% level -4.416345
5% level -3.622033
10% level -3.248592
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LNGDPP) Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/05/14 Time: 12:58 Sample (adjusted): 1991 2013
Included observations: 23 after adjustments
LNGDPP(-1) -0.513076 0.151286 -3.391423 0.0035 D(LNGDPP(-1)) 0.225980 0.053968 4.187263 0.0006 D(LNGDPP(-2)) -0.064245 0.052870 -1.215134 0.2409 D(LNGDPP(-3)) 0.156054 0.049111 3.177597 0.0055 C 2.331471 0.642091 3.631063 0.0021 @TREND(1986) 0.054485 0.016963 3.211951 0.0051 R-squared 0.627085 Mean dependent var 0.125828 Adjusted R-squared 0.517403 S.D. dependent var 0.092569 S.E. of regression 0.064307 Akaike info criterion -2.430844 Sum squared resid 0.070301 Schwarz criterion -2.134629 Log likelihood 33.95471 Hannan-Quynn criter. -2.356347 F-statistic 5.717347 Durbin-Watson stat 1.720840 Prob(F-statistic) 0.002846
Biến dtgdpt
Null Hypothesis: DTGDP has a unit root Exogenous: Constant. Linear Trend
Lag Length: 3 (Automatic based on SIC. MAXLAG=3)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.074571 0.1344 Test critical values: 1% level -4.394309
5% level -3.612199
10% level -3.243079
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(DTGDP) Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/05/14 Time: 13:00 Sample (adjusted): 1990 2013
Included observations: 24 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. DTGDP(-1) -0.290083 0.094349 -3.074571 0.0065 D(DTGDP(-1)) 0.251566 0.059836 4.204263 0.0005 D(DTGDP(-2)) -0.095624 0.059122 -1.617409 0.1232 D(DTGDP(-3)) 0.191705 0.054912 3.491108 0.0026 C 31.61084 25.60806 1.234410 0.2329 @TREND(1986) -0.886740 1.062231 -0.834790 0.4148 R-squared 0.733863 Mean dependent var -11.82442 Adjusted R-squared 0.659936 S.D. dependent var 29.34543 S.E. of regression 17.11279 Akaike info criterion 8.729847 Sum squared resid 5271.257 Schwarz criterion 9.024361 Log likelihood -98.75817 Hannan-Quynn criter. 8.807982 F-statistic 9.926863 Durbin-Watson stat 3.129347 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000110
Biến ln(dtgdpt)
Null Hypothesis: LNDTGDP has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC. MAXLAG=3)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.351466 0.0002 Test critical values: 1% level -3.711457
5% level -2.981038
10% level -2.629906
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LNDTGDP) Method: Least Squares
Date: 11/05/14 Time: 13:02 Sample (adjusted): 1988 2013
Included observations: 26 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. LNDTGDP(-1) -0.539505 0.100815 -5.351466 0.0000 D(LNDTGDP(-1)) 0.345087 0.134783 2.560313 0.0175