V. Tính toán lợi ích Xã Hội ròng của mỗi phơng án:
2.Ước lợng hàm cung sản xuất (MC1):
2.1. Ước lợng hàm tổng chi phí sản xuất (TC1):
Nhập số liệu C1 và Q1 vào phần mềm Kinh tế lợng để ớc lợng TC1:
P/tấn rác
Tấn rác
AWTP = 273 333
0
Trong đó: C1: Tổng chi phí khâu thu gom, vận chuyển và xử lý rác SH tại bãi Nam Sơn.
Q1: Khối lợng rác SH đợc xử lý.
Kết quả ớc lợng cho thấy:
OBS. C1 Q1 BPQ1 INPT1999 4.02E+10 183304.0 3.36E+10 1.0000 1999 4.02E+10 183304.0 3.36E+10 1.0000 2000 5.87E+10 262543.7 6.89E+10 1.0000 2001 7.46E+10 303321.9 9.20E+10 1.0000 2002 6.58E+10 199459.3 3.98E+10 1.0000 2003 7.69E+10 226385.8 5.13E+10 1.0000 2004 8.55E+10 255474.5 6.53E+10 1.0000 2005 9.41E+10 287092.6 8.24E+10 1.0000 2006 1.03E+11 321240.2 1.03E+11 1.0000 2007 1.11E+11 357917.2 1.28E+11 1.0000 2008 1.20E+11 397629.5 1.58E+11 1.0000 2009 1.29E+11 440377.3 1.94E+11 1.0000 2010 1.37E+11 486919.1 2.37E+11 1.0000 2011 1.46E+11 505637.1 2.56E+11 1.0000 2012 1.54E+11 524860.9 2.75E+11 1.0000 2013 1.63E+11 544337.6 2.96E+11 1.0000 2014 1.72E+11 560273.2 3.14E+11 1.0000 2015 1.80E+11 584302.9 3.41E+11 1.0000 2016 1.89E+11 601250.3 3.62E+11 1.0000 2017 1.97E+11 626294.8 3.92E+11 1.0000 2018 2.06E+11 644250.9 4.15E+11 1.0000 2019 2.15E+11 671063.1 4.50E+11 1.0000 2020 2.23E+11 698634.1 4.88E+11 1.0000
Ordinary Least Squares Estimation
******************************************************************************* Dependent variable is C1
22 observations used for estimation from 1999 to 2020
******************************************************************************* Regressor Coefficient Standard Error T-Ratio[Prob] BPQ1 .15094 .089353 1.6893[.108] Q1 193404.0 78647.4 2.4591[.024] INPT 1.53E+10 1.55E+10 .98302[.338] ******************************************************************************* R-Squared .97741 F-statistic F( 2, 19) 411.1004[.000] R-Bar-Squared .97504 S.E. of Regression 8.66E+09
Residual Sum of Squares 1.42E+21 Mean of Dependent Variable 1.34E+11 S.D. of Dependent Variable 5.48E+10 Maximum of Log-likelihood -533.0076 DW-statistic .38051
*******************************************************************************
Diagnostic Tests
******************************************************************************* * Test Statistics * LM Version * F Version * ******************************************************************************* * * * *
* A:Serial Correlation *CHI-SQ( 1)= 11.6012[.001]*F( 1, 18)= 20.0812[.000]* * * * *
* B:Functional Form *CHI-SQ( 1)= 1.2609[.261]*F( 1, 18)= 1.0944[.309]* * * * *
* C:Normality *CHI-SQ( 2)= 1.5231[.467]* Not applicable * * * * *
* D:Heteroscedasticity *CHI-SQ( 1)= 9.9034[.002]*F( 1, 20)= 16.3739[.001]* *******************************************************************************
A:Lagrange multiplier test of residual serial correlation
B:Ramsey's RESET test using the square of the fitted values C:Based on a test of skewness and kurtosis of residuals
D:Based on the regression of squared residuals on squared fitted values
Căn cứ kết quả vào bảng Ordinary Least Squares Estimation (OLS), ta có phơng trình ớc lợng (tham số):
TC1 = 0.15094Q2 + 193404Q +1.53E+102.2. Ước lợng MC1: 2.2. Ước lợng MC1:
MC1 = TC1'
MC1 = 0.3 Q + 193404