V. Tính toán lợi ích Xã Hội ròng của mỗi phơng án:
2.Ước lợng hàm chi phí thiệt hại môi trờng cận biên (MEC2):
2.1. Ước lợng hàm tổng thiệt hại môi trờng (TEC2): Hàm TEC2 phản ánh mối quan hệ giữa TWTA4 và Q2. Kết quả ớc lợng cho thấy:
OBS. TWTA2 Q2 BPQ2 LPQ2 INPT
2002 2.75E+09 2014.7 4059177 8.18E+09 1.00002003 2.88E+09 2286.7 5229134 1.20E+10 1.0000 2003 2.88E+09 2286.7 5229134 1.20E+10 1.0000 2004 3.02E+09 2580.6 6659238 1.72E+10 1.0000 2005 3.16E+09 2899.9 8409594 2.44E+10 1.0000 2006 3.31E+09 3244.8 1.05E+07 3.42E+10 1.0000 2007 3.46E+09 3615.3 1.31E+07 4.73E+10 1.0000 2008 3.63E+09 4016.5 1.61E+07 6.48E+10 1.0000 2009 3.80E+09 4448.3 1.98E+07 8.80E+10 1.0000 2010 3.97E+09 4918.4 2.42E+07 1.19E+11 1.0000 2011 4.16E+09 5107.4 2.61E+07 1.33E+11 1.0000 2012 4.36E+09 5301.6 2.81E+07 1.49E+11 1.0000 2013 4.56E+09 5498.4 3.02E+07 1.66E+11 1.0000 2014 4.78E+09 5659.3 3.20E+07 1.81E+11 1.0000 2015 5.00E+09 5902.1 3.48E+07 2.06E+11 1.0000 2016 5.23E+09 6073.2 3.69E+07 2.24E+11 1.0000 2017 5.48E+09 6326.2 4.00E+07 2.53E+11 1.0000 2018 5.74E+09 6507.6 4.23E+07 2.76E+11 1.0000
2019 6.01E+09 6778.4 4.59E+07 3.11E+11 1.00002020 6.29E+09 7056.9 4.98E+07 3.51E+11 1.0000 2020 6.29E+09 7056.9 4.98E+07 3.51E+11 1.0000
Ordinary Least Squares Estimation
******************************************************************************* Dependent variable is TWTA2
19 observations used for estimation from 2002 to 2020
******************************************************************************* Regressor Coefficient Standard Error T-Ratio[Prob] BPQ2 116.6666 10.4827 11.1295[.000] Q2 -380585.6 95553.2 -3.9830[.001] INPT 3.19E+09 2.00E+08 15.9695[.000] ******************************************************************************* R-Squared .99360 F-statistic F( 2, 16) 1241.7[.000] R-Bar-Squared .99280 S.E. of Regression 9.36E+07
Residual Sum of Squares 1.40E+17 Mean of Dependent Variable 4.29E+09 S.D. of Dependent Variable 1.10E+09 Maximum of Log-likelihood -374.0585 DW-statistic .54392
*******************************************************************************
Diagnostic Tests
******************************************************************************* * Test Statistics * LM Version * F Version * ******************************************************************************* * * * *
* A:Serial Correlation *CHI-SQ( 1)= 8.1671[.004]*F( 1, 15)= 11.3087[.004]* * * * *
* B:Functional Form *CHI-SQ( 1)= 5.4685[.019]*F( 1, 15)= 6.0620[.026]* * * * *
* C:Normality *CHI-SQ( 2)= 1.0334[.597]* Not applicable * * * * *
* D:Heteroscedasticity *CHI-SQ( 1)= 3.4216[.064]*F( 1, 17)= 3.7339[.070]* *******************************************************************************
A:Lagrange multiplier test of residual serial correlation
B:Ramsey's RESET test using the square of the fitted values C:Based on a test of skewness and kurtosis of residuals
D:Based on the regression of squared residuals on squared fitted values
Bảng OLS cho ta kết quả ớc lợng hàm TEC2:
TEC2 =116.6666 Q2 - 380585.6Q + 3.19E+09
2.2. Ước lợng hàm MEC2: MEC2 = TEC2'.
MEC2 = 233.2Q - 380585.