C. Xác định tổng lợi ích X hội ròng (B) ph ã ơng án 1:
2.Ước lợng hàm thiệt hại môi trờng cận biên (MEC2):
2.1. Ước lợng hàm tổng thiệt hại môi trờng (TEC2): Hàm TEC2 phản ánh mối quan hệ giữa TWTA4 và Q2. Kết quả tính toán của Mfit, ta có:
OBS. TWTA2 BPQ2 Q2 INPT2002 3.16E+09 7.15E+09 84578.8 1.0000 2002 3.16E+09 7.15E+09 84578.8 1.0000 2003 3.31E+09 9.22E+09 95996.7 1.0000 2004 3.47E+09 1.17E+10 108331.5 1.0000 2005 3.63E+09 1.48E+10 121738.9 1.0000 2006 3.80E+09 1.86E+10 136218.8 1.0000 2007 3.98E+09 2.30E+10 151771.3 1.0000 2008 4.17E+09 2.84E+10 168611.0 1.0000 2009 4.36E+09 3.49E+10 186737.7 1.0000 2010 4.57E+09 4.26E+10 206473.4 1.0000 2011 4.78E+09 4.60E+10 214410.5 1.0000 2012 5.01E+09 4.95E+10 222562.2 1.0000 2013 5.25E+09 5.33E+10 230821.1 1.0000 2014 5.49E+09 5.64E+10 237578.5 1.0000 2015 5.75E+09 6.14E+10 247768.1 1.0000 2016 6.02E+09 6.50E+10 254954.4 1.0000 2017 6.30E+09 7.05E+10 265573.0 1.0000
2018 6.60E+09 7.46E+10 273188.4 1.00002019 6.91E+09 8.10E+10 284557.9 1.0000 2019 6.91E+09 8.10E+10 284557.9 1.0000 2020 7.23E+09 8.78E+10 296249.1 1.0000
Ordinary Least Squares Estimation
******************************************************************************* Dependent variable is TWTA2
19 observations used for estimation from 2002 to 2020
******************************************************************************* Regressor Coefficient Standard Error T-Ratio[Prob] BPQ2 .076131 .0068405 11.1294[.000] Q2 -10425.7 2617.6 -3.9830[.001] INPT 3.67E+09 2.30E+08 15.9696[.000] ******************************************************************************* R-Squared .99360 F-statistic F( 2, 16) 1241.7[.000] R-Bar-Squared .99280 S.E. of Regression 1.08E+08
Residual Sum of Squares 1.85E+17 Mean of Dependent Variable 4.94E+09 S.D. of Dependent Variable 1.27E+09 Maximum of Log-likelihood -376.7140 DW-statistic .54394
*******************************************************************************
Diagnostic Tests
******************************************************************************* * Test Statistics * LM Version * F Version * ******************************************************************************* * * * *
* A:Serial Correlation *CHI-SQ( 1)= 8.1669[.004]*F( 1, 15)= 11.3082[.004]* * * * *
* B:Functional Form *CHI-SQ( 1)= 5.4684[.019]*F( 1, 15)= 6.0618[.026]* * * * *
* C:Normality *CHI-SQ( 2)= 1.0334[.596]* Not applicable * * * * *
* D:Heteroscedasticity *CHI-SQ( 1)= 3.4215[.064]*F( 1, 17)= 3.7337[.070]* *******************************************************************************
A:Lagrange multiplier test of residual serial correlation
B:Ramsey's RESET test using the square of the fitted values C:Based on a test of skewness and kurtosis of residuals
D:Based on the regression of squared residuals on squared fitted values
Hàm OLS cho ta kết quả ớc lợng hàm TEC2: TEC2 = 0.076131 Q2 - 10425.7 Q + 3.67E+09
2.2. Ước lợng hàm MEC2: MEC2 = TEC2'
3. Ước lợng hàm cung X hội (MSC2):ãMSC2 = MC2 + MEC2