Tài liệu Vietnam Facts ppt

0 VietnamFacts Frankfurt,30/4/2008 1 Content 1. Vietnameconomicoutlook 2.Majorreforms 2 1 VietnamEconomicOutlook 3 Majorsocioeconomicindices Rapidgrowthhasbeenmaintained,inflationunder control.2006hasmarkedahighgrowthrateof8.2% peryear Real 2003 Real 2004 Real 2005 Real 2006 Real 2007 GDPGrowthRate Industry Agriculture,Forestry,Fishery Services 7.2% 10.3% 3.2% 6.6% 7.7% 10.2% 3.5% 7.5% 8.4% 10.6 % 4.0% 8.5% 8.17% 10.4% 3.6% 8.29% 8.48 % 10.6 % 3.5% 8.7% CPI 3.0% 9.5% 8.4% 6.6% 12.6 % ExportEarningGrowth 20.8% 28.9% 22.4 % 22.0% 22% Budge tDeficit/GDP 2.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% TotalInvestment/G DP 35.0% 36.6% 38.7 % 40% 41.5% FDI(US$tỷ) 2.65 2.90 3.30 4.1 16.2 PoorHouseholdPercentage NA 18.1% NA 15.4 7 14.7 5% UrbanUnemploymentRate 5.8% 5.6% 5.13% 5.32% 5.1% Phầnt rămthờigianởkh uvựcnôngthôn 77.4% 79.3% 80.7 % NA NA JobCreation(thou sand people) 1,50 0 1,100 1.200 1.500 1.55 0 ChildrenProportion 28% 26% 26% NA NA Nguồn:BTC 4 Oneofthefastestg rowingeconomiesinAsia– SustainableGDPGrowth EconomicreformshaveturnedVietnamintothethirdfastestgrowingeconomyintheregion,followingChina andIndiain2007 „ GrowthinManufacturingandConstructionhasbeenthemainengineforGDPgrowthinVietnam „ BiggestcontributionstoGDPgrowthin2007include:Manufacturing:10.6%,Services:8.7%and Agriculture:3.5% „ Arecordg rowthrateof8.4%hasbeenachievedin2007 Source:MinistryofFinance Source:IMF (Giácả hiệntại) (%) Vietnamhasgoodconditionstosuccessfullycompleteitsindustrializationprocess RealGDPGrowth(20002006E) GDPGro wthintheRegion 6.9% 7.1% 7.3% 7.8% 8.4% 8.2% 8.5% 6.8% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 4.95.14.56.3TháiLan 7.35.44.96.6Philippines 6.35.95.06.8Malaysia 8.58.28.47.8Vietnam 6.35.55.75.0Indonesia 7.78.27.39.0Singapo 9.29.79.17.9India 11.411.110.410.1China 2007200620052004Nước 5 ReasonableG DPGrowthRates GDPGro wthBySector RealGDPContribution Eventhoughtheservicessectorshavebeengrowingsteadily,makingremarkable contributionstotheoveralleconomicgrowth,thecountry’sGDPgrowthhasstillmainly attributedtothemanufacturingsector (%share) (%YoY) Source:MinistryofFinance Source:MinistryofFinance 22,7 36,6 39,4 40,2 41,6 38,6 41,0 40,4 40,3 38,1 38,1 38,7 22,4 20,2 19,6 20,36 20,25 41,6 1990 2001 2004 2005 2006 2007 Industry Services Agriculture 100.0 100.0 100.0 9,4 10,3 10,2 10,6 10,37 10,6 6,5 7,0 8,0 8,5 8,3 8,7 4,1 3,2 3,5 4,0 3,4 3,4 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Industry Services Agriculture 100.0 100.0 6 PrudentBudgetControl Vietnam’sFisca lpolicyhasbeenreformed throughexpenditurecontrolandrevenue expansionmeasures „ Since2000,budgetdeficithasbeen maintainedbelowthetargetof2.5%GDP  ExpenditurecannotexceedRevenue  Commercialloansforbudget expenditurepurposesareforbidden „ Taxreformsconcentrateondirectsolutionsin taxcollections „ Bytheendo fthefiscalyearof2007,budget deficitwaskeptat1.8%/GDPCuốinămtài khoá2007,thâmhụtNSởmức18%/GDP Note:Fig uresc alculatedunderIMFst andards Source:MinistryofTrade Source:MinistryofFinance (VNDbillion) (%) FiscalPosition(20002007) TotalRevenueBreakdown(2007) (17,213) (12,142) (10,017) (13,300) (12,025) (10,904) (12,402) 2.8% 2.5% 1.9% 1.8% 1.1% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 FiscalBalance %GDP ValueAddedTax 22.1% IncomeTax 38.7% Other 12.8% NonTaxRevenue 4.4% CapitalRevenue 5.8% NaturalRes.Tax 7.7% ImportandExportTax 8.6% 7 ExternalDebtsundercontrol Vietnam’sexternaldebtspositionhasbeen improvedconsiderablyinrecentyears „ Thetargetsofexternaldebtsnotexceeding 20%ofexportearningsandtotaldebtsnot exceeding50%GDPhavebeenachieved. „ Currentwithrespecttodebtpaymentsonall outstandingexternaldebt Vietnamhasbeenimprovingtheadministrationofexternaldebts,oneofthemeasuresto improveeffectiveadministrationofthefinancialsectorinthecountry Source:MinistryofFinance,State BankofViệtNam (US$triệu) (%) Note:D ebtServiceRatioiscalculatedasrationoftotaldebtservicetoexportsof goodsandnonfactorservicesin% Source:MinistryofFinance,State BankofViệtNam ExternalDebtObligationsDebtServiceCoverage 870 792 753 619 638 160 154 146 133 125 2006 2007 2008F 2009F 2010F Principal Interest 1,030 946 899 752 762 38,9% 30,5% 30,0% 35,3% 31,5% 32,1% 33,7% 39.1% 7,0% 7,1% 7,5% 8,1% 6,7% 7,1% 10,4% 11.1% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 TotalExternalDebt/GDP DSR 8 ImprovingBoPPosition Vietnam’sBalanceof Paymentshasbeen improvedthroughmoresustainableforeign reserves Nguồn:BTC,StateBankofViệtNam ForeigncapitalinflowshaveresultedinasurplusinVi etnam’sBalanceofPayments Nguồn:BTC,NHNN (US$triệu) (US$triệu) CurrentAccount(20002007) BalanceofPayments(20002007) (US$triệu) CapitalAccount(20002007) 270 1.800 1.142 217 (925) (1,931) (863) 682 2,50% 0,7% (4.9%) 3,7% 2,1% (2.0%) 0,9% (2.5%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 CurrentAccount As%ofGDP 220 1,136 1,913 2,604 2,447 4,083 (754) 17.00% 6.2% 12.0% 6.0% 8.3% 5.8% 0.7% (2.4%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 CapitalAccount As%ofGDP 40 350 2.150 883 2.131 10.700 2.874 323 15,0% 6,8% 8,6% 1,9% 5,4% 1,0% 0,1% (1.0%) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 BOP As%ofGDP 9 11.175 12.985 16150 16.049 15.740 15.608 15.368 15.070 14.504 14.018 15.875 11.050 11.023 10.000 11.000 12.000 13.000 14.000 15.000 16.000 17.000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 StableExchangeRates Vietnammaintainsamanagedfloatinitsforeign exchangeregime „ AflexibleexchangerateoftheVietnamDong hasfacilitatedexports „ Riskmitigatingcostsoffo reigninvestorshave beenlowered Nguồn:NHNN ExchangeRates(1995–2007) Theexchangeratestabilityhassuccessfullyfacilitated tradeandinvestment 2/1999:Fixedexchange rateregimechanged  intoamanagedfloat regime [...]... were permitted in Vietnam 2002  6/ 2002: V Increasing domestic  lending interest rate  2003  2004  2005  9/ 2005:  „  Relaxing the  foreign cap from  30% to 49%  10/ 2005:  „  Successful  launch of USD  750 ml of dollar  denominated  sovereign bonds  for the  5/2006:  „  Conclusion of  Vietnam – US  Agreement on  Vietnam s WTO  entry  11/ 2006:  „  The WTO General  Council  recognized  Vietnam s  membership ... 12  1  Trade Liberalization: Next steps  Lots of effective trade liberalization measures have boosted international trade  „  Vietnam s 5­year period trade policies beginning in 2001 reduced non tariff barriers to trade  „  Since the conclusion of the US – Vietnam BTA in 2001, Vietnam s export turnover to the US  increased from USD 1.1 bn in 2001 to USD 10.7 bn in 2007  „  Total export turnover reached USD 48.6 bn in 2007 ... The legal framework for reforming state­owned commercial banks was formulated by the  Khuôn khổ pháp lý cho việc cải cách hệ thống  Government in April 2001 with a view to enhancing the financial capacity, supporting the  NHTMNN được CP ký ban hành vào 4/2001 để nâng  cao năng lực tài chính và hỗ trợ tái cơ cấu các NH  restructuring of banks and building trust.  và xây dựng lòng tin.  The State Bank is turned into the Central Bank „  Continue to restructure 36 JSBs under the supervision of the State Bank ... 2006  2007  Source: Bloomberg, Ministry of Finance  In 2006 and 2007, the domestic capital market grew rapidly  both in terms of quantiy and quality  17  5 Development of a bond market  The Government of Vietnam promotes the  mobilization of funds from the local sector to  ensure the economic growth of the country  Since 2000, the local bond market has witnessed  significant progresses  Domestic Government Debt ... Making public the financial status of enterprises  „  Taking necessary measures to supervise the financial situation of  enterprises and to effectively implement the taxation system  19  7  Legal Reforms  Legal Reforms have been a challenge for Vietnam during its WTO accession negotiations.  Major reforms include:  1.  Improving consistency  „  To ensure transparency  „  To reflect the factual situation and the opinions of those affected by such legal documents ... 8% ­ 8,5%  150  Local funding  65% ­ 67%  External funding  33% ­ 35%  21  Sustainable Development Commitment  Joining the WTO and fully participating in AFTA is a benchmark in 2007  12/ 2001:  „ US – Vietnam BTA  Ealier 2004:  „  Promoting SOE Reforms,  banking reforms and prvate  sector development  passed  „ Revision of the  7/ 2000:  „ The first securities  trading floor opened  in Hochiminh City ... Creation of sufficient social security  2000  2001  2002  2003  Exports  2004  2005  % to US 2006  2007  Transparency in the legal system  Source: Ministry of Trade, General Statistical Office  WTO entry for Vietnam will facilitate an acceleration of market­based reforms  13  2  SOE Reforms  SOE Reforms facilitate the development of the  private sector and reduce the debt burden of the  State  Remarkable Reduction of SOEs  . 0 Vietnam Facts Frankfurt,30/4/2008 1 Content 1. Vietnam economicoutlook 2.Majorreforms 2 1 Vietnam EconomicOutlook 3 Majorsocioeconomicindices Rapidgrowthhasbeenmaintained,inflationunder control.2006hasmarkedahighgrowthrateof8.2% peryear Real 2003 Real 2004 Real 2005 Real 2006 Real 2007 GDPGrowthRate Industry Agriculture,Forestry,Fishery Services 7.2% 10.3% 3.2% 6.6% 7.7% 10.2% 3.5% 7.5% 8.4% 10.6. 2007 StableExchangeRates Vietnam maintainsamanagedfloatinitsforeign exchangeregime „ Aflexibleexchangerateofthe Vietnam Dong hasfacilitatedexports „