Phát triển ngành hàng sơn tra tại các tỉnh tây bắc việt nam TT TIENG ANH

THAI NGUYEN UNIVERSITY UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION NGUYEN VAN TRONG DEVELOPING HAWTHORN INDUSTRY IN THE NORTHWESTERN PROVINCES OF VIETNAM Major: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS Code: 9.62.01.15 SUMMARY OF DOCTORAL DISSERTATION IN ECONOMICS THAI NGUYEN - 2021 THE THESIS IS COMPLETED AT UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Supervisors: Assoc.Prof.Dr Do Thi Thuy Phuong Asso.Prof.Dr Tran Dinh Tuan Reviewer 1: Reviewer 2: Reviewer 3: The thesis will be defended at the Ddissertation Council of University of Economics and Business Adminstration At: date month year 2021 The thesis can be found at: - National Library of Vietnam - TNU Digital Center - Thai Nguyen University - Library at Thai Nguyen University of Economics and Business Administration DOCUMENTS RELATED TO THE DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Nguyen Van Trong, Do Thi Thuy Phuong (2020), “Analysis of Factors Affecting Hawthorn Industry: Study in the Northwest of Vietnam”, The International Journal of Business & Management, Volume 8, Issue 10, October 2020 Nguyen Van Trong, Do Thi Thuy Phuong (2020), “Solutions to develop hawthorn tree in Northwest provinces”, Review of Finance, March, 2020 Nguyen Van Trong, Tran Dinh Tuan, Do Thi Thuy Phuong (2020), “Developing Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces”, Economics and Forecast Review, No 05, February, 2020 (723) INTRODUCTION Urgency of the topic Hawthorn has the scientific name of Crataegus Primnatifida Bunge (Northern Hawthorn); Hawthorn belongs to the Crataegus group, the botanical family Rosaceae (rose family) with about 280 varieties Hawthorn is a fruit tree originating in the temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere, in Europe, Asia and North America, distributed in many countries such as Russia, Poland, Hungary, Germany, England, Switzerland, France, China, Korea, Japan, Vietnam In Vietnam, the Hawthorn tree is also called “Tao Meo” (mainly growing in the areas where the Mong people live); also known as sour tree, liver tree or San-sa (Tay people), Co-sam-sa (Thai people) Previously, Hawthorn fruit was only known as a product of the mountains and forests, with low economic value In recent years, Hawthorn fruit and products processed from Hawthorn fruit are favored by the market as well as bringing economic value Realizing that potential, the Northwest provinces have developed and issued many policies on investment and development of Hawthorn tree production In recent years, many provinces in the Northwest region have actively implemented programs to promote the development of the Hawthorn industry In Son La province, Hawthorn was selected as one of 16 typical agricultural products of the province Hawthorn tree has created stable jobs, made an important contribution to hunger eradication and poverty reduction, and at the same time actively contributed to the economic growth of each locality For sustainable socio-economic development in the coming time, the Northwest provinces of Vietnam have identified Hawthorn as one of the traditional and spearhead crops in agro-forestry production in their localities from which to research and issue policies to encourage and support the development of the Hawthorn industry to suit actual requirements Faced with the actual situation of developing agro-forestry production, the role, meaning and importance of Hawthorn in the Northwestern provinces of Vietnam, I chose the topic: "Developing Hawthorn industry in the Northwestern provinces of Vietnam" in order to provide more arguments for the provinces to come up with appropriate and feasible solutions and policies for the development of Hawthorn in the coming period, commensurate with the potential and strengths of the Northwestern provinces of Vietnam Research objectives of the topic - Explain and clarify the theory and practice on the development of the Hawthorn industry - Assessment of the development situation of Hawthorn industry; Analysis of factors affecting the development of Hawthorn industry; Point out the limitations and causes of limitations in the development of the Hawthorn industry in the Northwestern provinces of Vietnam - Proposing solutions to develop the Hawthorn industry in the Northwestern provinces of Vietnam Objects and scope of the study 3.1 Research subjects The object of the study is the Hawthorn industry and the activities of the actors involved in the Hawthorn industry in the Northwestern provinces of Vietnam 3.2 Research scope - Scope of content: The topic focuses on researching the development situation of the Hawthorn industry in the Northwest region of Vietnam - Spatial scope: The topic is studied in the provinces of the Northwest region of Vietnam Secondary data were collected from Northwestern provinces Primary data were collected in provinces with large Hawthorn production Specifically, the author has selected provinces for research: Yen Bai province, Son La province, and Lai Chau province - Scope of period: The thesis researches the process of formation and development of the Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces of Vietnam in the period 2018-2020 Primary data is collected in 2020 Proposed solutions for the period 2022-2030 and subsequent years New contributions of the topic 4.1 Contributions to theory and science 4.2 Practical contributions Structure of the thesis In addition to the introduction, conclusion, list of references, and appendices, the thesis consists of chapters: Chapter 1: Review of research papers Chapter 2: Theoretical and practical basis for the development of Hawthorn industry Chapter 3: Research Methods Chapter 4: The development situation of Hawthorn industry in the Northwestern provinces of Vietnam Chapter 5: Orientation and solutions to develop Hawthorn industry in the Northwestern provinces of Vietnam CHAPTER OVERVIEW OF RESEARCH DOCUMENTS Currently, there have been research works in the world and in Vietnam related to the development of the industry and most of them have only studied them separately and separately These studies not have a comprehensive and systematic view of the product industry and its development, especially the development of the Hawthorn industry in Vietnam Analyze the industry by studying the value chain of that industry The approach to value chain approach in recent years has become a trend of systematic research Value chain research is applied in many different fields Therefore, the value chain approach to the analysis of agricultural commodities becomes even more important because it helps farmers to better access the market Although this is not a new method, it is not easy to this because it is highly marketable for proper production planning, so this approach is always the first choice of manufacturers Research when analyzing product lines in order to produce products according to market requirements in terms of quantity and quality in order to develop the industry and achieve high economic efficiency In general, new studies focus mainly on assessing the current situation, comparing advantages, development trends, processing, and consumption of Hawthorn products; especially Hawthorn production techniques to improve the productivity and quality of Hawthorn Therefore, there has not been a systematic study and discussion on the development of the Hawthorn industry in the Northwestern provinces of Vietnam Currently, a series of problems are raised in both theory and practice such as: How has the Hawthorn industry formed and developed in our country in general and in the northwestern provinces of Vietnam? What actors are involved in the Hawthorn industry and what difficulties and obstacles are they facing? What solutions have been researched and proposed for the development of the Hawthorn industry in the northwestern provinces of Vietnam? In order to contribute to clarifying the above issues, the topic: "Developing Hawthorn industry in the Northwestern provinces of Vietnam" has the task of clarifying those issues CHAPTER THEORETICAL BASIS AND PRACTICE ABOUT HAWTHORN INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT 2.1 Theoretical basis for the development of Hawthorn industry 2.1.1 Industry commentary 2.1.2 Meaning and role of Hawthorn industry development 2.1.3 Contents of research and development of Hawthorn industry 2.1.3.1 Strengthening conditions for the development of Hawthorn industry 2.1.3.2 Activities of actors participating in the industry 2.1.3.3 Develop a management mechanism and propose support policies 2.1.4 Factors affecting the development of the Hawthorn industry - The first is the group of internal factors: including factors such as linkages between actors, resources, distribution of economic benefits, and feedback flow - Second is the group of external factors: including inputs of Hawthorn production (Hawthorn variety, materials, specialized chemicals, raw materials ), mechanisms and policies, and other groups of factors such as scientific and technical services, local infrastructure, international economic integration, product consumption market 2.2 Practical basis for the development of Hawthorn industry Through the experience of developing the agricultural commodity industry of some countries and localities in the country, some lessons can be drawn from the development of the Hawthorn industry in the northwestern provinces of Vietnam as follows: First: Planning the development of production areas reasonably Second: It is necessary to build a complete, reasonable and long-term system of laws and policies to develop the Hawthorn industry Third: Choose an appropriate organizational form for the Hawthorn industry Forth: Promote processing technology and application of science and technology Fifth: When setting up the Hawthorn industry value chain, it is necessary to diversify products, diversify processing methods and diversify markets, focusing on developing Hawthorn to bring high added value Sixth: Strengthening the role of state management CHAPTER RESEARCH METHODS 3.1 Research question To conduct research on the topic Development of Hawthorn industry in the Northwestern provinces of Vietnam, it is necessary to answer the following questions: - What is the current situation of Hawthorn product development in the Northwest provinces in recent years? - What factors affect the development of Hawthorn industry? What is the level of impact on the development of Hawthorn industry? - In order to develop Hawthorn industry for the Northwest region of Vietnam in the coming period, what solutions should be implemented? 3.2 Research Methods 3.2.1 Analytical framework Researching the actors involved in the Hawthorn industry in the Northwestern provinces of Vietnam with the main objective of determining the current state of activities of the agents, the potential and effectiveness of Hawthorn production and business The main influences on the development of Hawthorn industry in the study area 3.2.2 Research Methods 3.2.2.1 Research approach 3.2.2.2 Methods of selecting research sites 3.2.2.3 Methods of data and information collection 3.2.2.4 Professional solution 3.2.3 Methods of data processing and information synthesis 3.2.4 Analytical methods 3.2.4.1 Descriptive statistics method 3.2.4.2 Comparative Statistical Methods 3.2.4.3 Segmentation method 3.2.4.4 Industry analysis method 3.2.4.5 Value chain analysis method 3.2.4.6 SWOT matrix method 3.2.4.7 Exploratory factor analysis method 3.3 System of research indicators 3.3.1 Group of indicators reflecting the situation of Hawthorn production 3.3.2 The group of indicators reflects the results of the Hawthorn industry 3.3.3 Group of indicators for economic efficiency analysis of Hawthorn industry 3.3.4 Group of indicators to assess the relationship between actors in the Hawthorn industry CHAPTER THE DEVELOPMENT SITUATION OF HAWTHORN INDUSTRY IN THE NORTHWESTERN PROVINCES OF VIETNAM 4.1 Characteristics of the study area * Advantages The Northwest provinces in general have favorable conditions to develop the Hawthorn industry The large area of land planned for forestry is a great resource for forestry development The area of protection forests and production forests is large, serving the protection of the Da and Red river watersheds; create aquatic life to provide water for the system of hydroelectric plants inside and outside the province, and at the same time provide water for people to produce agricultural products and live in the area and downstream areas; It is also a place to store genetic resources for biodiversity conservation The climate and soil conditions are suitable for many types of plants and medicinal plants under the forest canopy with economic value with their own specific characteristics such as Hawthorn, Cardamom, Dang Sam, Tam That and many precious wood trees, such as: Po Mu, Bach Tan Taiwan, Gioi, Sen have high economic value Hawthorn is a native plant, grows well in places with thick soil layer, topsoil still has forest soil and soil after shifting cultivation, necessary and sufficient conditions are cold climate, altitude above 1,200m compared to sea level Currently, the area of Hawthorn tree being harvested is mainly trees that grow naturally under the canopy of regenerative forests and partly planted by the people, the rest is mixed in planting protection forests This is a plant that grows and develops strongly, with simple and manual planting techniques, suitable to the conditions and levels of ethnic minorities in the Northwest * Difficulties Besides favorable conditions for the development of the Hawthorn industry, the Northwest provinces also face many difficulties Most of the terrain is dissected, steep slope; The climate is harsh and divided into distinct seasons, the dry season, the dry season, the long dry spell, plus the Laotian wind from October last year to April next year In the rainy season, heavy and concentrated rain often causes flash floods and landslides These are unfavorable factors for agricultural and forestry production activities and daily life activities of people in the region For the area of Hawthorn tree in the poor natural protection forest, planted at an altitude of 1,430m, in general, the tree grows and develops slowly; the survival rate is not high because it is planted under the forest canopy with many layers of canopy and trees There is a lack of light and the protection and care work has not been paid much attention by the people, so that livestock can be destroyed For Hawthorn pure species planted on bare land planned for production, the survival rate is high, reaching over 80%, but due to the limited investment and care of the people, it leads to slow growth of trees, in addition Cattle grazing also affects the growth of plants * The situation of Hawthorn development in the Northwestern provinces of Vietnam Table 4.6: Development situation of Hawthorn area and quantity of Northwest provinces in the period of 2018 - 2020 Average increase No Local The The The area Quantity The area Quantity Quantity Quantity area area (ha) (ton) (ha) (ton) (ton) (%) (ha) (%) Total 17.878,24 15.669 20.294,88 17.449 22.375 21.134 9.31 12.42 Son La 8.099,52 10.617 9.705,14 11.881 9.932 12.627 10.74 9.06 Yen Bai 7.820,90 3.862 8.311,82 4.157 8.913 5.527 6.75 19.63 Lai Chau 1.652 850 1.937 1.031 2.144 1.250 13.92 21.27 Đien Bien 305,82 340 340,92 380 341 400 5.60 8.47 Lao Cai 33 1.045 1.330 Hoa Binh 2018 2019 2020 (Source: Compiled and calculated by the author from reports of the Departments of Agriculture and Rural Development, the Sub-Department of Forestry and the Hawthorn Development Scheme of the Northwest provinces) It can be seen that in the Northwest region, Hawthorn tree thrives in Son La, Yen Bai and Lai Chau provinces In the remaining provinces of Dien Bien, Lao Cai and Hoa Binh, the area of Hawthorn is very limited and the locality has not really paid attention to the development of the Hawthorn industry Therefore, within the scope of the research, the author focuses on investigating and researching the current situation of Hawthorn industry development in provinces, namely Son La, Yen Bai and Lai Chau 4.2 The development situation of Hawthorn industry in the Northwestern provinces of Vietnam 4.2.1 Conditions for the development of Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces - Labor - Production capital - Production organization and production process - Processing techniques - Market organization 4.2.2 Activities of actors participating in the Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces The main actors in the Hawthorn industry in the Northwest include: Hawthorn producers, collectors, Hawthorn manufacturers and processors, wholesalers, retailers and consumers Although the number of actors participating in the Hawthorn industry is quite diverse, the main product of the distribution channel system is still Hawthorn fruit Through studying the consumption of Hawthorn in the Northwestern provinces, the author determined that there are main channels of Hawthorn consumption + Channel 1: Hawthorn Producers  Wholesalers  Retailers  Consumers + Channel 2: Hawthorn Producers  Collectors  Wholesalers  Retailers  Consumers + Channel 3: Hawthorn Producers  Processing facilities, enterprises, cooperatives  Wholesalers  Retailers  Consumers 4.2.3 Developing management mechanism and propose support policies Realizing the value and potential from the development of the Hawthorn industry, in recent years, the Northwest localities have developed a management mechanism and implemented many Hawthorn development policies, contributing to poverty reduction for the citizen 4.3 Actual situation of Hawthorn industry in the studied provinces 4.3.1 Producers 4.3.2 Collectors 4.3.3 Hawthorn manufacturers 4.3.4 Hawthorn consumers 4.4 Results and economic efficiency of Hawthorn industry 4.4.1 Outcomes and economic efficiency of each actor 4.4.1.1 Producers The producer's products are sold in two forms: fresh Hawthorn and processed Hawthorn, which are soaked in sugar and Hawthorn wine In which, fresh Hawthorn is mainly consumed, while processed Hawthorn is used Hawthorn 13 Thus, to consume kg of fresh Hawthorn, wholesalers have to spend an intermediary cost of VND 16,539 and create an added value of VND 2,296, and the profit obtained is VND 1,983 4.4.1.5 Retailers Similar to the wholesaler, the author calculates the economic benefits of retailers for selling fresh Hawthorn Table 4.20: Results and economic efficiency of Hawthorn retailers (calculated for 1kg) Items Value (dong) Percentage (%) 22.018 I Value of Production (GO) 100 19.632 89,16 II Intermediary Cost (IC) Cost of buying Hawthorn 18.835 95,94 Labor 134 0,68 Fuel 180 0,92 Transport 136 0,69 Other costs 347 1,77 2.386 10,84 III Value Added (VA) - Taxes and fees 239 - Gross profit 2.147 + Depreciation of fixed assets 101 + Net profit 2.046 IV Economic efficiency - GO/IC 1,1215 - VA/IC 0,1215 - GPr/IC 0,1094 - NPr/IC 0,1042 (Source: Compiled from survey results) Thus, to consume kg of fresh Hawthorn, retailers have to spend an intermediary cost of VND 19,632 and create an added value of VND 2,386, and earn a profit of VND 2,046 4.5 Assessing the relationship between actors in the Hawthorn industry 4.5.1 Analyze industry linkages 4.5.2 Horizontal link 4.5.3 Vertical link 4.6 The formation of prices and added value of actors in the Hawthorn industry in the Northwest region In the process of analyzing the commodity, it is necessary to learn about the price formation and the added value of the factors Specifically, the author learns about the main consumption channels of the Hawthorn value chain, with the participation of actors: Hawthorn growers, collectors, wholesalers, retailers, processors and consumers 14 Table 4.21: Summary of results, economic efficiency of actors in the Hawthorn industry in the Northwest region Unit: Dong Items Producers Collectors GO IC VA GPr NPr 14.280 11.130 3.150 2.000 1.914 15.942 14.477 1.465 1.419 1.371 Processors Hawthorn Wie jam 20.424 75.424 16.110 64.551 3.314 10.873 2.636 9.786 2.841 8.792 Wholesalers Railers 18.835 16.539 2.296 2.067 1.983 22.018 19.632 2.386 2.147 2.046 (Source: Compiled from survey results) From the above table, it can be seen that, when participating in the Northwest Hawthorn industry, all actors make profits, but the profit distribution has a huge difference, the most profitable agent is the establishment processing, followed by retailers, followed by wholesalers and producers Households collect the lowest profit 4.7 Analysis of factors affecting the development of Hawthorn industry in the northwestern provinces of Vietnam 4.7.1 The group of internal factors 4.7.2 Group of external factors 4.7.3 Analyze the influence of factors by test model 4.7.3.1 Cronbach's Alpha reliability coefficient The scales built below have the form of a 5-point Likert scale from strongly disagree to strongly agree, expressed from to In which, corresponds to the choice of strongly disagree agree and corresponds to strongly agree - For the scale of Linking between actors (LK): This scale is measured by observed variables The results of the reliability analysis of the scale have Cronbach's Alpha coefficient of 0.894 > 0.6 At the same time, all observed variables have a total correlation > 0.3 and Cronbach's Alpha coefficient if the variable types of the observed variables are all smaller than the general Cronbach's Alpha Therefore, the scale of Association between actors meets reliability - For the scale of Distribution of economic benefits (PC): This scale is measured by observed variables The results of the reliability analysis of the scale have Cronbach's Alpha coefficient of 0.895 > 0.6 At the same time, all observed variables have total correlation > 0.3 and Cronbach's Alpha coefficient if the variable types of the observed variables are all smaller than Cronbach's Alpha in general Therefore, the scale of Sharing economic benefits meets the reliability - For the Input Factor (YT) scale: This scale is measured by observed variables The results of the reliability analysis of the scale have Cronbach's Alpha coefficient of 0.854 > 0.6 At the same time, all observed variables 15 have total correlation > 0.3 and Cronbach's Alpha coefficient if the variable types of the observed variables are all smaller than Cronbach's Alpha in general Therefore, the Input Factor scale meets the reliability - For the Policy Mechanism scale (CC): This scale is measured by observed variables The results of the reliability analysis of the scale have Cronbach's Alpha coefficient of 0.882 > 0.6 At the same time, all observed variables have total correlation > 0.3 and Cronbach's Alpha coefficient if the variable types of the observed variables are all smaller than Cronbach's Alpha in general Therefore, the Policy Mechanism scale meets the reliability - For infrastructure scale (CS): This scale is measured by observed variables The results of the reliability analysis of the scale have Cronbach's Alpha coefficient of 0.755 > 0.6 At the same time, all observed variables have total correlation > 0.3 and Cronbach's Alpha coefficient if the variable types of the observed variables are all smaller than Cronbach's Alpha in general Therefore, the Infrastructure scale has met the reliability - For the Industry Development Scale (PT): This scale is measured by observed variables The results of the reliability analysis of the scale have Cronbach's Alpha coefficient of 0.818 > 0.6 At the same time, all observed variables have total correlation > 0.3 and Cronbach's Alpha coefficient if the variable types of the observed variables are all smaller than Cronbach's Alpha in general Therefore, the Scale of Product Development meets reliability 4.7.3.2 EFA exploratory factor analysis After testing the reliability of Cronbach's Alpha of the components of the scale, the study continued to perform EFA analysis for the scales The purpose of the EFA analysis technique is to determine which factors really represent the observed variables in the scales The factors represent 23 observed variables obtained from EFA exploratory factor analysis The EFA analysis was performed through the following tests: * EFA analysis for independent variables Table 4.23: EFA analysis results for measurement concepts Observed variables PC6 PC5 PC2 PC4 PC1 PC3 LK5 LK1 LK2 LK3 LK4 0,852 0,836 0,794 0,792 0,755 0,754 0,869 0,832 0,815 0,799 0,770 Factors 16 Observed variables CC3 CC2 CC1 YT2 YT3 YT1 CS1 CS3 CS2 Factors 0,910 0,905 0,859 0,876 0,870 0,836 0,846 0,750 0,750 KMO Sig Eigenvalue Variance quoted 0,830 0,000 1,455 71,926% (Source: Calculation results through SPSS 22.0) Table 4.23 shows that the observed variables in each factor satisfy the requirement of having factor loading coefficient greater than 0.55 Thus, the specific factors are as follows: Factor 1: Including observed variables LK1; LK2; LK3; LK4; LK5 Name this factor as LK representing the Link between agents Factor 2: Including observed variables PC1; PC2; PC3; PC4; PC5 Name this factor PC representing the Economic Benefit Sharing factor Factor 3: Including observed variables YT1; YT2; YT3 Name this factor YT represents the element Input element Factor 4: Including the observed variable CC1; CC2; CC3 Name this factor CC representing the Policy Mechanism element Factor 5: Including observed variables CS1; CS2; CS3 Name this element CS representing the Infrastructure element * EFA analysis for dependent variable Table 4.24: KMO and Bartlett test Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Test 0,708 Approx Chi-Square 433,854 Df Bartlett Test Sig 0,000 (Source: Calculation results through SPSS 22.0) The coefficient KMO = 0.708 satisfies the condition 0.5 < KMO < 1, showing that the EFA analysis is appropriate for the actual data Table 4.24 shows Bartlett test results with Sig < 0.05, showing that the observed variables have a linear correlation with the representative factor 17 Table 4.25: Testing the explanatory level of observed variables for representative factors Eigenvalues Factors Total Variance 2,204 ,457 ,340 73,456 15,221 11,323 Cumulative variance 73,456 88,677 100,000 Sum of squares of extracted load factor Cumulative Total Variance variance 2,204 73,456 73,456 (Source: Calculation results through SPSS 22.0) Table 4.24 shows that EFA exploratory factor analysis extracted factor representing observed variables in the category Development scale with Eigenvalues standard of 2,204 greater than Cumulative variance column in Table 4.25 for found that the extracted variance is 73.456% This means that the influencing factor explains 73.456% of the variability of observed variables in the scales The representative factor for Product Development includes observed variables PT1; PT2; PT3 Name this factor PT The factor PT was calculated by the author through the software SPSS 22.0 by regressing the observed component variables 4.7.3.3 Correlation analysis Table 4.26: Correlation coefficient matrix table PT LK PC YT CC CS Pearson Correlation Sig (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig (2-tailed) N PT 407 0,546** 0,000 407 0,390** 0,000 407 0,447** 0,000 407 0,341** 0,000 407 0,483** 0,000 407 LK 0,546** 0,000 407 407 0,262** 0,000 407 0,254** 0,000 407 0,118* 0,017 407 0,358** 0,000 407 PC 0,390** 0,000 407 0,262** 0,000 407 407 0,068 0,172 407 0,088 0,077 407 0,298** 0,000 407 YT 0,447** 0,000 407 0,254** 0,000 407 0,068 0,172 407 407 0,206** 0,000 407 0,243** 0,000 407 CC 0,341** 0,000 407 0,118* 0,017 407 0,088 0,077 407 0,206** 0,000 407 407 0,131** 0,008 407 CS 0,483** 0,000 407 0,358** 0,000 407 0,298** 0,000 407 0,243** 0,000 407 0,131** 0,008 407 407 Với (*) 5%; (**) 1% (Source: Calculation results through SPSS 22.0) The correlation coefficient matrix in Table 4.26 shows the individual correlation between the pairs of variables in the model The results show that the independent variables in the LK model; PC; YT; CC; CS has a statistically significant correlation with the dependent variable PT Independent variables 18 LK; PC; YT; CC; CS has a positive correlation at 1% significance level with the dependent variable PT Thus, factor Link between actors; Distribution of economic benefits; Inputs; Policy mechanisms; Infrastructure has a positive correlation with the development of Hawthorn industry 4.7.3.4 Regression analysis Multivariate regression analysis was then performed to determine the factors affecting the development of Hawthorn industry in the Northwest region and at the same time to test the research hypotheses To identify factors affecting the development of Hawthorn industry in the Northwest, a multiple regression model was built of the form (1) Model estimation results Table 4.27: Results Regression coefficient Unnormalized Normalized regression coefficient regression t Standard coefficient Coefficient error -0,487 0,187 -2,598 Constant 0,251 0,029 0,326 8,736 LK 0,219 0,038 0,205 5,722 PC Factors 0,181 0,025 0,256 7,143 YT 0,211 0,036 0,203 5,882 CC 0,241 0,042 0,216 5,754 CS Sig 0,010 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 0,000 Correlation statistics Tolerance VIF 0,814 0,880 0,881 0,947 0,799 1,228 1,136 1,135 1,056 1,251 (Source: Calculation results through SPSS 22.0) In Table 4.27, column of significance Sig shows the regression coefficients of all LK variables; PC; YT; CC; CS all have Sig significance level, less than 0.05 Thus, the regression coefficients of the variables LK; PC; YT; CC; CS are statistically significant or LK variables; PC; YT; CC; CS has an effect on the dependent variable PT The model of factors affecting the development of Hawthorn industry in the Northwest is built in the form (1) Table 4.28: Important position of factors Independent variables LK PC YT CC CS Total Normalized regression coefficient 0,326 0,205 0,256 0,203 0,216 1,206 Percentage (%) 27,03 17,00 24,95 16,83 17,91 100 (Source: Compiled by the author) Model comments: - Based on the beta coefficient of the influencing factors, we can see that the survey subjects rated the importance of the factors from low to high as the 19 link between the factors (0.326); Input Factor (0.256); Infrastructure (0.216); Distribution of economic benefits (0.205); Policy mechanism (0.203) From there, there will be a step for the author to shape the construction of governance implications according to the level of focus on the undervalued factors and the promotion of the overvalued factors - The beta coefficients all have positive signs or in other words, the factors are positively correlated with the development factor of Hawthorn industry and the Northwest provinces that want to increase the development of Hawthorn industry, the only way is to increase increase these factors: • If the factor of Linkage between actors increases by unit, the evaluation of Product Development will increase by 0.326 units • If the factor of sharing economic benefits increases by unit, the evaluation of product development will increase by 0.205 units • If the factor of Input Factor increases by unit, the assessment of Sector Development will increase by 0.256 units • If the Mechanism and Policy factor increases by unit, the assessment of Sector Development will increase by 0.203 units • If the Infrastructure factor increases by unit, the assessment of Sector Development will increase by 0.216 units Table 4.29: Model summary Model R R2 R2 correction Error of estimate 0,739a 0,546 0,541 0,50724 CSrbinWatson 1,932 (Source: Calculation results through SPSS 22.0) According to the results of Table 4.29, the coefficient of determination R2 is 0.546 Thus, 54.6% change of the dependent variable is explained by the independent variables of the model or in other words 54.6% change of Hawthorn industry development is explained by factors in the model Table 4.30: Analysis of Variance Model Regression Error total Sum of squares 124,222 103,173 227,395 Degree of Freedom 401 406 Average squared 24,844 0,257 F Sig 96,562 0,000b (Source: Calculation results through SPSS 22.0) Based on the results of Table 4.30, the coefficient Sig = 0.000 < 0.01 with F = 96,562, showing that the given model is consistent with the actual data In other words, the independent variables are linearly correlated with the dependent variable at the 99% confidence level 20 4.7.3.5 Model defect test results * Checking for multicollinearity Table 4.31: Multicollinearity test results Collinear Statistics Variables Tolerance VIF 0,814 1,228 LK 0,880 1,136 PC 0,881 1,135 YT 0,947 1,056 CC 0,799 1,251 CS (Source: Calculation results through SPSS 22.0) Multicollinearity in the model is measured through the VIF coefficient In the experimental study, if VIF is less than 5, the model is said to have no multicollinearity phenomenon Conversely, if VIF is greater than 5, then the model is said to have multicollinearity According to the results of Table 4.31, after testing, all variables in the model have VIF coefficients less than 2, so the model does not have multicollinearity 4.7.3.6 Correlation similarity test The autocorrelation phenomenon in the model is tested through the CSrbin - Watson coefficient If the CSrbin - Watson coefficient is greater than and less than 3, the model is said to have no autocorrelation In case CSrbin Watson is less than or greater than 3, the model has autocorrelation The results in Table 4.31 show that the CSrbin - Watson coefficient is 1,932, so the model does not have autocorrelation 4.7.3.6 Conclusion of research hypothesis Hypothesis H1: The factor Linking factors affects the same direction as the development of Hawthorn industry in the Northwestern provinces The results of the regression analysis show that the variable LK has an influence on the dependent variable PT This means that the factor of linkage between factors affects the development of Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces At the same time, the regression coefficient of the variable LK with a value of 0.326 has a positive sign, that is, the greater the linkage between the actors, the more the development of Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces will increase Thus, hypothesis H1 is supported Hypothesis H2: Factor Distribution of economic benefits has a positive impact with the development of Hawthorn industry in the Northwestern provinces The results of the regression analysis show that the PC variable has an influence on the dependent variable PT This means that the division of economic benefits affects the development of the Hawthorn industry in the Northwestern provinces At the same time, the regression coefficient of the variable PC has a value of 0.205 with a positive sign, that is, the better the 21 distribution of economic benefits, the stronger the development of the Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces Thus, hypothesis H2 is supported Hypothesis H3: Input factors have a positive impact on the development of Hawthorn industry in the Northwestern provinces The results of the regression analysis show that the variable YT has an influence on the dependent variable PT This means that the input factor affects the development of the Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces At the same time, the regression coefficient of the variable YT has a value of 0.256 with a positive sign, which means that the quality and reasonable price of the input factors will promote the development of Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces Thus, hypothesis H3 is supported Hypothesis H4: Factors Mechanism and policy have the same impact with the development of Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces The results of the regression analysis show that the CC variable has an influence on the dependent variable PT This means that the mechanism and policy factor affects the development of Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces At the same time, the regression coefficient of the variable CC has a value of 0.203 with a positive sign, which means that the better the policy mechanism, the more it promotes the development of the Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces Thus, hypothesis H4 is supported Hypothesis H5: The infrastructure factor has a positive impact on the development of Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces The results of the regression analysis show that the CS variable has an influence on the dependent variable PT This means that the infrastructure factor affects the development of Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces At the same time, the regression coefficient of the variable CS has a value of 0.216 with a positive sign, ie, the better the infrastructure, the more favorable the development of Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces Thus, hypothesis H5 is supported 4.8 General assessment of the development of Hawthorn industry in the northwestern provinces of Vietnam 4.8.1 Achievements With the attention and direction of the State, the leadership of the provinces and districts in the Northwest region in directing the development of the area of Hawthorn tree and being included in the main tree for economic development in the highlands in many localities, the government and people have actively supported and participated in development In recent years, Hawthorn has contributed to promoting economic development, bringing income to improve living standards for people, and poverty reduction Currently, many of the above Hawthorn growing models are very successful such as in Mu Cang Chai (Yen Bai), Bac Yen (Son La) 22 The distribution channel of the Hawthorn industry is widespread from rural to urban areas, with a network of collectors at all levels and specialized preprocessing agents for each item There are many factors involved in the linkage in the production and consumption of products from Hawthorn, which shows that the economic benefits of Hawthorn industry for people are very large Value chain linkages and channels for consumption of products in the Hawthorn value chain have been formed Leaders of the Northwest provinces and departments are especially interested in developing Hawthorn tree to solve poverty reduction for the people Currently, Hawthorn with the familiar name Hawthorn has been known to consumers in the provinces with many uses for health 4.8.2 Limitations and weaknesses Firstly, the current production and business of Hawthorn is still mainly small, scattered in residential areas, according to experience and habits, some parts not follow a unified production process Secondly, the topography of the growing place is complicated, far from home, and the roads are complicated for transporting the fruits after harvest, leading to the fruit being easily crushed after transportation The collectors collect spontaneously, not according to the time, which leads to low fruit value, and the selling price of Hawthorn fresh fruit is still low Third, currently, no enterprises have committed to invest in Hawthorn processing in the Northwest provinces Investment in production in agriculture is not very efficient, carries great risks, and besides, the supporting policies for enterprises to invest in production are still not specific, so most large enterprises are still not interested in this business agricultural products business Fourth, the market demand for Hawthorn is still mainly fresh fruit Next is the traditional pickled wine Fifth, Some products processed from Hawthorn can help increase the value of Hawthorn industry, such as herbal and beauty products from Hawthorn, which have not yet been developed This is the next direction for Hawthorn in the Northwest in the future Sixth, there is no organization, association, association group of households to organize, manage, protect and sell products, so the collection of products and selling prices are not uniform Hawthorn was carried out spontaneously, the people followed their own experience, leading to many shortcomings in planting and harvesting Seventh, information about market prices has not been well organized for actors in the industry High quality products are still limited and not meet market requirements, leading to difficulties for processing facilities The promotion of the brand to enhance the value of Hawthorn is still limited 23 Eighth, scientific and technical progress in post-harvest technology (preservation, packaging, labeling), processing has not yet been transferred well Ninth, the link between actors is loose, easily broken by conflicts of personal interests CHAPTER ORIENTATION AND SOLUTIONS TO DEVELOP HAWTHORN INDUSTRY IN THE NORTHWESTERN PROVINCES OF VIETNAM 5.1 Based on the proposed orientation and solutions for the development of Hawthorn industry 5.1.1 Development potential of Hawthorn industry 5.1.2 Analysis of product development potential of Hawthorn industry 5.1.3 Analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges for the development of Hawthorn industry 5.2 Development orientation of Hawthorn industry Stemming from the practice of production and consumption of Hawthorn in recent years, according to the needs of society in the new context, the development orientation of the Hawthorn industry from now to 2025 and a vision to 2030 in the following directions: - Development of the Hawthorn industry must be based on promoting the potential and available advantages of each region and each locality - The development of the Hawthorn industry must be associated with the restructuring of the agricultural sector; Building new rural areas in highlands and areas with special difficulties; Selection of a group of key plant varieties, including Hawthorn; Developing value chains, agricultural products; Implement the one-commune-one product (OCOP) program To achieve the goal of sustainable poverty reduction, especially in the areas where the Mong ethnic people live - To develop Hawthorn products to enrich the reserves of watershed protection forests in association with combating climate change - To develop the Hawthorn industry on the basis of a close association between research and production, preliminary processing, processing, preservation, and consumption of products - Develop the Hawthorn industry on the basis of mobilizing all resources of all economic sectors, with the assistance of the State is necessary and appropriate contents such as capital, human resource training, innovation new science and technology, increase investment in scientific research, develop and promulgate mechanisms and policies to encourage appropriate development for the industry in each period 24 - In the period from 2020 onwards, focus on technological innovation and application of new technical advances in the field of Hawthorn production and processing in order to quickly develop the Hawthorn industry to a high level - Enhance the role of "tractor" of enterprises in the development of Hawthorn industry Focus on developing cooperatives, cooperative groups and farm and ranch economy in developing Hawthorn commodity industry, creating conditions for actors in the commodity industry to have close links with each other between all stages of the commodity industry - Establishing Hawthorn Associations and assigning responsibilities to the management agencies of the Hawthorn industry in the provinces and localities in the province, proceeding to establish organizations to manage and develop the Hawthorn industry for all Northwest provinces - Developing the domestic consumption market and gradually moving towards exporting to foreign markets on the basis of developing diversified products of Hawthorn industry to ensure the quality requirements and manage the origin and quality of products to meet consumer requirements 5.3 The main solution to develop the Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces of Vietnam 5.3.1 Group of common solutions for the development of Hawthorn industry 5.3.1.1 Hawthorn production development planning 5.3.1.2 Organization of production in the direction of goods and economic subjects 5.3.1.3 Increasing investment to support infrastructure development of the industry 5.3.1.4 Promote training, agricultural and industrial promotion 5.3.1.5 Developing the Hawthorn market 5.3.1.6 Strengthening mechanisms, policies, and state management in commodity development 5.3.2 Group of solutions to upgrade and develop Hawthorn industry 5.3.2.1 General strategic vision on upgrading Hawthorn industry 5.3.2.2 Linking strategy between actors in the industry 5.3.2.3 Technology investment strategy, product diversification 5.3.2.4 Strategies to reduce costs, lower product costs 5.3.2.5 Strategies to improve product quality 5.3.2.6 Distribution system reorganization strategy 5.3.2.7 Support value chain upgrading 5.4 Suggestions 5.4.1 For the State 5.4.2 For the Northwest provineces 25 CONCLUSION After studying the development of the Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces of Vietnam, some conclusions can be drawn as follows: 1) The thesis has reviewed research works in the world and in Vietnam related to the development of the agricultural and forestry products industry in general and the Hawthorn industry in particular Through the overview study, the thesis has pointed out the gap in previous studies that there has been no systematic study on the development of Hawthorn industry in the Northwestern provinces of Vietnam to determine the direction of the future Thereby, the thesis has systematized and clarified the theoretical basis for the development of the Hawthorn industry as a basis for studying the contents of the thesis topic Based on the analysis of the situation and development experience of the Hawthorn industry in the world and in the country in the past time, the research confirms that for the traditional regions in the Northwestern provinces of Vietnam, Hawthorn production has the opportunity to for growth and sustainable development From theoretical and practical research on the development of the Hawthorn industry in the world and in Vietnam, the thesis has drawn a number of lessons learned for the development of the Hawthorn industry in the study area 2) Hawthorn is a plant that has existed for a long time and is a native plant that is very suitable for local natural conditions Compared with other agroforestry products, Hawthorn is a crop with potential for sustainable development associated with many social and environmental issues in a positive way Local people have a lot of experience in growing, harvesting and processing Hawthorn products In fact, in recent years, Hawthorn has grown in area, output and product types, promoting production and business, creating jobs, and increasing incomes for workers, contributing to poverty alleviation In addition to having socio-economic significance, the Hawthorn tree also acts as a protection forest, against flash floods, landslides, etc Therefore, this is a plant used in planting programs to protect forests of localities in the Northwest provinces 3) Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces is formed on the basis of cooperation between actors or economic units that jointly produce collect process and consume Hawthorn products The development of the Hawthorn industry is an increase in the size, output, and type of products, and the improvement of relationships between actors in the industry, including from Hawthorn producers to final consumers and consumers Through studying the current situation of Hawthorn industry, we can see that: i) The number of members of the direct producer of Hawthorn and retail households account for 26 the most; ii) In the Hawthorn industry, the planting agent of Hawthorn plays an important role, creating the most added value, higher production value per cost than other agents, but incurs many risks and limitations most control factors such as epidemics, effects of climate change, The benefits of these agents rank second after processing agents; iii) Collectors currently have the lowest benefits, which makes sense since they operate in a short time, with low investment; iv) Processing agents currently have the highest interest in the industry, however, they have to make large investments and cannot bring into full play the factory's designed capacity due to lack of processing materials and market demand still low; v) Consumer agents have the third highest interest in the Hawthorn industry, in which the agents of the wholesale group have a higher interest than the retail group (vi) Among the main consumption channels of the Hawthorn industry, channel number "Hawthorn Producer Households - Processing Enterprises - Consume - Consumers" has the largest volume of product consumption and is present in the market on the market in the locality of the study area; vii) The assessment shows that the linkage between the actors involved in the aviation industry is not close, which is the cause of hindrance to promoting the sustainable development of the industry; viii) The problem of profit distribution among actors is not very reasonable, there are still many shortcomings The collection, processing and wholesale distribution establishments with retail households, although earning lower benefits, are more stable than production establishments and not suffer more disadvantages and risks; ix) A group of factors of scientific and technical services, varieties and a group of mechanisms and policies that have had the main influence on the development of the industry in recent times 4) Analysis of the influence of factors on the development of Hawthorn industry shows that: Among the internal factors, the factor of the linkage between the actors in the industry is still low, causing and distributing benefits between the different industries The factors in the industry are still unreasonable, greatly affecting the development of the industry External factors such as inputs for the production and business of Hawthorn industry and mechanisms and policies for the development of the industry are generally highly appreciated, which have had an impact on the formation and development of the industry 5) On the basis of assessing the current situation, analyzing the potential and strengths of the product industry, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and challenges in the development of Hawthorn industry, the thesis has proposed groups of solutions Solutions for the development of the Hawthorn industry in the coming period include two groups of solutions: 1) General solution group: 27 Including specific solutions: (i) Hawthorn production development planning; (ii) Organization of production towards goods and economic entities; (iii) Increase investment in supporting infrastructure development of the industry; (iv) Promote training, agricultural and industrial extension; (v) Developing the Hawthorn market; (vi) Strengthening mechanisms, policies, and state management in the development of the commodity industry; and 2) The group of solutions to upgrade the Hawthorn industry includes the following specific solutions: (i) General strategic vision on upgrading the Hawthorn industry; (ii) Linking strategy between actors in the industry; (iii) Technology investment strategy, product diversification; (iv) Strategies to reduce costs and lower product costs; (v) Strategies to improve product quality; (vi) Strategy to reorganize the distribution system; (vii) Support to upgrade the value chain The proposed solutions have a scientific basis, are generally suitable and feasible Unifying the synchronous implementation of the above solutions will accelerate the development of the Hawthorn industry in the Northwest provinces, contributing to the socio-economic development of Vietnamese Northwest region ... General strategic vision on upgrading Hawthorn industry 5.3.2.2 Linking strategy between actors in the industry 5.3.2.3 Technology investment strategy, product diversification 5.3.2.4 Strategies... General strategic vision on upgrading the Hawthorn industry; (ii) Linking strategy between actors in the industry; (iii) Technology investment strategy, product diversification; (iv) Strategies... Administration DOCUMENTS RELATED TO THE DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Nguyen Van Trong, Do Thi Thuy Phuong (2020), “Analysis of Factors Affecting Hawthorn Industry: Study in the Northwest of Vietnam”,