Tài liệu Nothing But Net 2009 Internet Investment Guide 22 pdf

211 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 133: IACI Annual Balance Sheet $ in millions FY'07 FY'08E FY'09E FY'10E Current Assets Cash and cash equivalents (including restricted cash) $1,585.3 $1,850.0 $1,998.0 $2,152.9 Marketable securities $326.8 $121.5 $121.5 $121.5 Receivables from IAC and subsidiaries $116.7 $118.1 $118.1 $118.1 Assets held for sale $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Other current assets $377.4 $186.0 $186.0 $186.0 Current assets of discontinued operations 1020.034 0 0 $0.0 Total current assets $3,426.2 $2,275.7 $2,423.6 $2,578.6 Property, plant and equipment, net $334.3 $343.9 $329.5 $323.8 Goodwill $1,823.8 $1,910.9 $1,910.9 $1,910.9 Intangible assets, net $401.9 $410.7 $410.7 $410.7 Long-term investments and other non-current assets $301.0 $256.8 $256.8 $256.8 Preferred interest exchangeable for common stock $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Other non-current assets $201.8 $401.4 $401.4 $401.4 Non-current assets of discontinued operations $6,101.7 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Total Assets $12,590.8 $5,599.5 $5,733.0 $5,882.3 Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity Current maturiries of long term obligations and short term borrowings $12.1 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Liabilities held for sale $0.0 - - - Other current liabilities $456.8 $404.7 $404.7 $404.7 Current liabilities of discontinued operations $1,265.3 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Total Current Liabilities $1,734.2 $404.7 $404.7 $404.7 Long term obligations, net of current maturities $834.5 $95.8 $95.8 $95.8 Non-current liabilities held for sale $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Other long term liabilities $13.9 $14.6 $14.6 $14.6 Non-current liabilities of discontinued operations $1,127.5 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Deferred income taxes $264.1 $382.3 $382.3 $382.3 Common stock exchangeable for preferred interest $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Minority Interest $32.9 $32.1 $32.1 $32.1 Total Liabilities $4,007.1 $929.5 $929.5 $929.5 Shareholders' Equity Preferred stock $0.01 par value 0 0 0 0 Common stock $0.01 par value 0.209 0.21 0.21 0.21 Class B convertible common stock $0.01 par value 0.016 0.016 0.016 0.016 Additional paid-in capital $14,744.5 $11,096.5 $11,096.5 11096.47 Retained earnings $567.8 $516.4 $649.9 799.1631 Accumulated other comprehensive income $39.8 -$28.8 -$28.8 -28.792 Treasury stock -$6,768.7 -$6,914.3 -$6,914.3 -6914.33 Note receivable from key executive for common stock insurance $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 0 Total Shareholder Equity $8,583.7 $4,669.7 $4,803.3 $4,952.5 Total Liabilities and Shareholders' equity $12,590.8 $5,599.5 $5,733.0 $5,882.3 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. 212 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 134: IACI Annual Cash Flow Statement $ in millions Cash flows from operating activities: FY'07 FY'08E FY'09E FY'10E Earnings from continuing operations (4.4) (73.6) 64.3 67.4 Adjustments to reconcile earnings from continuing operations to net cash provided by operating activities 0.0 0.0 0.0 Depreciation and Amortization 95.6 101.2 108.0 118.0 Goodwill and Other Impairment 0.0 132.6 0.0 0.0 Amortization of non-cash distribution and marketing expense 49.7 15.0 12.8 13.8 Amortization of non-cash compensation expense 73.6 94.8 82.8 91.2 Deferred income taxes (4.4) (79.8) 0.0 0.0 Gain on sale of investments (16.7) 34.1 0.0 0.0 Increase in fair value of derivative assets (29.4) (12.7) 0.0 0.0 Equity in income of unconsolidated affiliates, including VUE (22.4) (30.7) (61.5) (61.5) Non-cash interest income 0.0 0.0 0.0 Minority interest in income of consolidated subsidiaries (2.0) (0.8) 1.6 2.0 Changes in current assets and liabilities (166.1) 7.2 0.0 0.0 Accounts and notes receivables (8.9) (6.5) 0.0 0.0 Loans available for sale 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Inventories 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Prepaids and other assets (19.0) (6.2) 0.0 0.0 Accounts payable and accrued liabilities 51.9 33.7 0.0 0.0 Deferred revenue 5.1 3.5 0.0 0.0 Income taxes payable (209.7) (23.4) 0.0 0.0 Other, net 14.5 6.1 0.0 0.0 Net cash provided by operating activities (26.5) 187.3 208.0 230.9 00 00 00 Cash flows provided by (used in) investing activities 0.0 0.0 0.0 Acquisitions, net of cash acquired (45.9) (130.7) 0.0 0.0 Capital Expenditures (112.9) (76.3) (60.0) (76.0) (Increase) decrease in long-term investments and notes receivables (120.0) 1.2 0.0 0.0 Purchase of marketable securities (783.8) (140.9) 0.0 0.0 Proceeds from sale of marketable securities 1367.2 330.3 0.0 0.0 Proceeds from sale of VUE 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Proceeds from sale of discontinued operations 4.2 32.7 0.0 0.0 Other, net 13.0 921.0 0.0 0.0 Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities 337.4 937.4 (60.0) (76.0) 00 00 00 Cash flows used in financing activities 0.0 0.0 0.0 Borrowings 0.0 (514.9) 0.0 0.0 Excess tax benefits from stock-based awards 75.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 Principal payments on long-term obilgations (7.6) (0.0) 0.0 0.0 Purchase of treasury stock by IAC (542.9) (145.6) 0.0 0.0 Proceeds from issuance of common stock, inluding stock options (59.2) (12.8) 0.0 0.0 Redemption of preferred stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Preferred Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other, net 0.8 (1.4) 0.0 0.0 Net cash in financing activities (533.5) (674.0) 0.0 0.0 00 00 00 Net cash used in continuing operations (222.6) 450.6 148.0 154.9 00 Total cash from discontinued ops 356.5 (170.2) 0.0 0.0 Effect of exchange rates changes on cash and cash equivalents 23.3 (15.7) 0.0 0.0 Net increase in cash and cash equivalents 157.1 264.7 148.0 154.9 Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of period 1428.1 1585.3 1850.0 1998.0 Cash and cash equivalents at the end of period 1585.3 1850.0 1998.0 2152.9 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. 213 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com MercadoLibre, Overweight, ($15.69) We are maintaining our Overweight rating on MercadoLibre, as we believe the company remains well-positioned to take advantage of the growth of online commerce in South America. Our 12-month price target is $24. • We are modeling nearly flat Y/Y dollar-denominated GMV growth through 3Q’09. Although we see continued local-currency growth through the coming year, MercadoLibre faces a low-double-digit headwind from foreign exchange, as a result of which we think dollar-denominated GMV could stay roughly flat through the first three quarters even as the volume of trade in each of the countries increases. We are modeling a return to dollar-denominated growth once the FX impact is anniversaried in. We thus estimate 51% GMV growth in 4Q’09, helped also by our expectation of easy comps from 4Q’08 and in line with GMV growth in 2Q’08 and 3Q’08. • MercadoPago 3.0 rollout to continue, helping drive 29% projected Y/Y Payments revenue growth. We expect the seller-pays payment paradigm will expand to additional geographies in the first half of F’09, to at least one of Brazil, Venezuela, or Mexico. • Ads and classifieds growth may slow, but remains a longer-term catalyst. Although we think near-term ad revenue growth could slow, we think these non- GMV related, higher-margin revenue streams can be a contributor for margin expansion in the medium to long term. We are modeling F’10 EBITDA margin of 31.4%, up from 28.9% in F’08E. • 2009 drivers. In our view, the following factors will drive shares in 2009: (1) continuing strong Latin America eCommerce growth in local-currency terms, (2) contagion from a US recession as well as the impact of further currency fluctuations, (3) the impact of higher interest rates on financing and deferred- payment plans from MercadoPago and (4) the pace and execution of further MercadoPago rollouts. • Maintaining 4Q’08 and F’09 estimates. We are maintaining our revenue, EBITDA and EPS estimates for 4Q’08 and F’09. We are slightly reducing our F’10 estimates, as we believe the economic challenges could continue for somewhat longer than we had previously expected. Our new estimates are summarized in the table below: Table 135: MercadoLibre Financial Snapshot $ in millions, except per share data MELI Y/Y 4Q’08E F’08E F’09E F’10E F’08E F’09E F’10E J.P. Morgan Revenue 34.2 137.7 163.8 219.0 62% 19% 34% EBITDA 10.5 39.8 50.5 68.7 70% 27% 36% EPS $ 0.12 $ 0.36 $ 0.54 $ 0.75 65% 50% 38% Consensus Revenue 35.1 140.6 181.1 254.3 65% 29% 40% EBITDA 10.8 42.4 58.7 88.6 81% 39% 51% EPS $ 0.13 $ 0.39 $ 0.63 $ 1.03 80% 61% 62% Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data, and Bloomberg 214 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Key Financial Metrics & Forecasts The following tables summarize our revenue forecast by business segment and our estimates for Y/Y growth in the company’s Marketplaces and Payments segments through F’10. Table 136: MercadoLibre Marketplaces Forecasts US$ in millions except where indicated 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) $ 1,512 $ 2,020 $ 2,261 $ 2,793 % Change Y-Y 41% 34% 12% 24% Take Rate 4.6% 5.4% 5.6% 6.1% Marketplaces Revenues $ 69.5 $ 109.1 $ 126.9 $ 169.4 % Change Y-Y 55% 57% 16% 33% GMV per successful item (US$) $ 86.18 $ 96.37 $ 88.14 $ 90.01 Revenue per successful item (US$) $ 3.96 $ 5.20 $ 4.95 $ 5.46 Successful items sold (M) 17.5 21.0 25.6 31.0 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Table 137: MercadoLibre Payments Forecasts US$ in millions except where indicated 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E Total Payment Volume $ 158 $ 282 $ 349 $ 457 % Change Y-Y 77% 79% 24% 31% % of GMV 10.4% 14.0% 15.4% 16.3% Take Rate 9.9% 10.1% 10.6% 10.9% Payments Revenue $ 15.6 $ 28.6 $ 36.9 $ 49.6 % Change Y-Y 113% 83% 29% 34% Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Our Estimates and Outlook for 2009 Our F’09 estimates call for Y/Y revenue, EBITDA and EPS growth of 19%, 27% and 16%, as we expect a tough macro environment as well as double-digit FX headwinds to result in a deceleration of growth. We are modeling revenue of $164M, EBITDA of $50.5M and EPS of $0.54. We expect GMV to grow 12% in F’09, and we think that take rate growth will slow due to the tough environment, with the Marketplaces take rate rising to 5.6% from 5.4% in F’08E. On the MercadoPago side, we expect TPV growth to decelerate to 24% and revenue growth of 29%. Our Estimates and Outlook for 2010 We think dollar growth rates are likely to rebound in F’10 once the FX headwind is anniversaried in. We are modeling a 24% increase in GMV and a 31% rise in TPV. We think the company will be able to benefit from a re-acceleration of its advertising and classified businesses, resulting in an F’10 take rate above 6% for the first time, at 6.1%. We are modeling F’10 revenue of $219M, from $227M previously; EBITDA of $68.7M, from $72.0M; and EPS of $0.75, from $0.83. 215 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com We Are Introducing a Price Target of $24 In introducing price targets for our coverage, we have derived multiples based on 5- year forward EBIT CAGRs. We believe the historical record does not provide a meaningful guide to valuation as (a) the majority of the companies in our coverage did not have a track record as public companies through the previous recession and (b) even the public companies were still in their early-growth (and, for some, rapid growth) stage during the last economic downturn. As such, given our projection for MercadoLibre of a ~24% F’09 - F’14 EBIT CAGR, and our view of the beginning of a possible economic turnaround in 2H’09, we believe the stock can achieve a 24x EV/EBIT multiple to our F’09 EBIT estimate (reflecting better forward visibility than the current valuation of 15x our F’09 estimate) and thus arrive at our December 2009 price target of $24. The parameters of our EV/EBIT multiple analysis are in the table below: Table 138: Key Valuation Assumptions 5 yr forward EBIT CAGR 24% 1x EBIT Growth 24 2009 EBIT $ 43 Implied Enterprise Value $ 1,037 + Cash $ 34 - Debt 0 Market Value $ 1,071 Share count 44 2009 Price Target $ 24 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Our EV/EBIT valuation is based on the following projections for revenue and operating income growth Table 139: 5-Year Growth Profile $ in millions 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E Revenues 163.8 219.0 280.3 344.8 403.4 459.8 Y/Y change 33.7% 28% 23% 17% 14% Less: Operating Expenses 120.9 159.9 204.0 250.3 292.4 332.9 As % of total revenues 73.8% 73.0% 72.8% 72.6% 72.5% 72.4% Operating Income (Loss) 42.9 59.1 76.2 94.5 110.9 126.9 Operating margin 26.2% 27.0% 27.2% 27.4% 27.5% 27.6% Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Valuation and Rating Analysis On an EV/EBITDA basis, MELI trades at 12.5x our F’09 estimate of $50M, vs. its peer group at 12.5x. We think the company’s fundamentals and its strong free cash flow generation would justify a premium valuation, and rate the stock Overweight. Risks to Our Rating We believe there are four primary risks to our Overweight rating on Mercadolibre: • Economic conditions: Several of MercadoLibre’s core markets have a history of economic turmoil and financial crises. An economic slowdown, brought on by regional or global economic weakness, or an economic 216 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com upheaval, could negatively impact our estimates for eCommerce growth in the region and therefore growth for MercadoLibre. • Political environment and sovereign issues: MercadoLibre operates in many countries with a history of political instability. Political instability could affect customers’ confidence and therefore their willingness to purchase goods online. In addition, governments may limit Internet or commerce activities. We believe MercadoLibre’s close work with local governments to monitor sales practices and the ability to track cash flows with MercadoPago mitigates some of this risk. • Expansion plans could stress resources: MercadoLibre has grown through a number of acquisitions since its inception in 1999. As the company looks to grow into new product offerings and markets, it may look to acquire other companies or be forced to spend substantial cash to develop its own products. Either event could stress MercadoLibre’s financial resources. • Low cost of entry business model. Creating an online marketplace requires little capital, since the owner does not need to stock merchandise and fulfill orders. In addition, if Latin American e-commerce growth proves to be as attractive as some projections estimate, it might attract the interest of larger players, such as eBay, Google, Yahoo or Amazon, which have greater resources available to them than MercadoLibre. However, we believe both the first mover advantage and the marketplace scale that MercadoLibre has achieved act as barriers to entry for even deep-pocketed competitors. 217 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 140: MercadoLibre Annual Income Statement $ in millions 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E Merchandise GMV 1,511.6 2,020.3 2,260.7 2,793.4 Payment GMV 157.8 282.4 348.8 456.5 Auction Revenues 69.5 109.1 126.9 169.4 Payment Revenues 15.6 28.6 36.9 49.6 Total Revenues 85.1 137.7 163.8 219.0 Blended Take rate 5.1% 6.0% 6.3% 6.7% Total Cost of Sales 18.9 28.4 35.1 46.1 Gross Profit 66.2 109.3 128.6 172.9 Gross Margin 77.8% 79.4% 78.5% 78.9% Product & Technology Development 4.4 6.8 8.3 11.1 Sales and Marketing 27.6 41.5 51.6 69.4 General and Administrative 13.2 23.8 25.8 33.3 Acquisition-related compensation 1.9 Total Operating Expenses 45.2 74.1 85.8 113.8 Income From Operations 21.0 35.2 42.9 59.1 Operating Margin 24.7% 25.6% 26.2% 27.0% Depreciation and amortization 2.3 3.7 6.1 8.1 EBITDA 23.4 39.8 50.5 68.7 EBITDA Margins 27.4% 28.9% 30.8% 31.4% Y/Y Growth 215.4% 70.2% 27.0% 36.1% Interest income 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.1 Interest expense (2.0) (4.6) (5.5) (6.8) Exchange gains (losses) (3.1) (5.7) - - Other income, net (3.0) 0.0 - - Other income (expense) (6.5) (8.6) (3.8) (4.7) Income Before Income Taxes 14.5 26.6 39.1 54.4 Tax Rate 32.6% 39.8% 38.0% 38.0% Income/ asset tax benefit (expense) (4.7) (10.6) (14.8) (20.7) Net Income before disc. 9.8 16.0 24.2 33.7 Net income (loss) 9.8 16.0 24.2 33.7 Add back non-cash effect of warrants 2.0 Pro forma Net Income 11.7 16.0 24.2 33.7 Accredition of preferred stock (0.3) - - - Net income (loss) available to common 9.5 16.0 24.2 33.7 Pro Forma Net Income to common 11.4 16.0 24.2 33.7 Net Attributable to preferred 1.9 - - - Net income ex. attributable to preferred 7.6 16.0 24.2 33.7 EPS ex. Attributable to preferred 0.22 0.36 0.54 0.75 Pro Forma EPS 0.46 0.41 0.54 0.75 Sharecount 24.8 44.3 44.6 45.0 Diluted Sharecount 24.8 44.4 44.8 45.2 % of Revenues Payment Revenue 18.3% 20.8% 22.5% 22.7% Auction Revenue 81.7% 79.2% 77.5% 77.3% Total Cost of Sales 22.2% 20.6% 21.5% 21.1% Product and Technology Development 5.1% 5.0% 5.1% 5.1% Sales and Marketing 32.4% 30.2% 31.5% 31.7% General and Administrative 15.5% 17.3% 15.8% 15.2% Total Operating Expenses 53.1% 53.8% 52.4% 52.0% Y/Y Growth Rates Payment Revenues 112.9% 83.4% 28.9% 34.5% Auction Revenues 55.4% 57.0% 16.3% 33.5% Total Revenues 63.5% 61.8% 18.9% 33.7% Product and Technology Development 42.4% 56.2% 22.3% 33.1% Sales and Marketing 18.1% 50.5% 24.3% 34.5% General and Administrative 62.4% 79.9% 8.4% 28.9% Total Operating Expenses 30.7% 63.9% 15.8% 32.7% Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. 218 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 141: MercadoLibre Quarterly Income Statement $ in millions 1Q'07 2Q'07 3Q'07 4Q'07 1Q'08 2Q'08 3Q'08 4Q'08E 1Q'09E 2Q'09E 3Q'09E 4Q'09E Merchandise GMV 312.6 343.0 394.9 461.0 449.7 515.5 590.1 465.0 453.7 512.8 589.9 704.2 Payment GMV 26.4 31.0 43.6 56.8 52.3 66.8 81.5 81.8 70.6 85.5 93.7 99.0 Auction Revenues 14.2 16.1 18.1 21.1 23.5 28.3 31.7 25.6 25.4 28.7 33.3 39.4 Payment Revenues 2.3 2.9 4.7 5.8 5.4 6.2 8.5 8.6 7.3 9.0 10.0 10.6 Total Revenues 16.5 19.0 22.8 26.9 28.8 34.5 40.3 34.2 32.8 37.7 43.3 50.0 Blended Take rate 4.9% 5.1% 5.2% 5.2% 5.7% 5.9% 6.0% 6.2% 6.2% 6.3% 6.3% 6.2% Total Cost of Sales 3.5 4.1 5.2 6.2 6.0 6.9 8.2 7.3 7.1 8.1 9.3 10.7 Gross Profit 13.0 14.9 17.6 20.7 22.8 27.6 32.1 26.8 25.7 29.6 34.0 39.4 Gross Margin 78.8% 78.5% 77.2% 77.1% 79.1% 80.0% 79.7% 78.5% 78.4% 78.5% 78.5% 78.7% Product & Technology Development 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.1 Sales and Marketing 6.3 6.3 7.0 8.0 9.2 10.3 11.4 10.6 10.5 12.1 13.6 15.5 General and Administrative 2.7 2.8 3.5 4.3 4.9 5.9 7.3 5.7 5.3 6.1 7.0 7.5 Acquisition-related compensation 0.4 1.5 Total Operating Expenses 10.0 10.2 11.6 13.4 16.3 19.4 20.4 17.9 17.8 20.3 22.7 25.0 Income From Operations 3.0 4.7 6.0 7.3 6.5 8.1 11.7 8.9 7.9 9.3 11.3 14.4 Operating Margin 18.3% 24.9% 26.3% 27.1% 22.7% 23.6% 29.0% 26.0% 24.2% 24.6% 26.1% 28.7% Pro Forma Operating margin 24.7% 28.1% 29.0% 26.0% 24% 25% 26% 29% Depreciation and amortization 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.9 EBITDA 3.5 5.3 6.6 7.9 7.3 9.0 13.0 10.5 9.5 11.1 13.3 16.6 EBITDA Margins 21.6% 28.0% 28.8% 29.5% 25.2% 26.1% 32.3% 30.7% 29.1% 29.3% 30.7% 33.2% Y/Y Growth 182.3% 172.8% 297.7% 211.0% 105.0% 69.4% 98.4% 31.8% 31.0% 23.0% 2.1% 58.5% Interest income 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 Interest expense (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.8) (1.4) (1.0) (1.1) (1.1) (1.3) (1.3) (1.4) (1.5) Exchange gains (losses) (0.4) (0.6) (0.8) (1.3) (1.0) (2.1) (2.6) Other income, net (0.3) (1.8) (1.0) - - 0.0 0.0 - - - - - Other income (expense) (1.0) (2.3) (1.8) (1.4) (1.6) (2.7) (3.4) (0.9) (0.9) (0.9) (1.0) (1.0) Income Before Income Taxes 2.0 2.4 4.2 5.9 4.9 5.4 8.3 8.0 7.0 8.4 10.3 13.4 Tax Rate 45.0% 75.5% 33.5% 10.4% 58.1% 45.5% 28.9% 36.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% 38.0% Income/ asset tax benefit (expense) (0.9) (1.8) (1.4) (0.6) (2.9) (2.5) (2.4) (2.9) (2.7) (3.2) (3.9) (5.1) Net Income before disc. 1.1 0.6 2.8 5.3 2.1 2.9 5.9 5.1 4.4 5.2 6.4 8.3 Net income (loss) 1.1 0.6 2.8 5.3 2.1 2.9 5.9 5.1 4.4 5.2 6.4 8.3 Add back non-cash effect of warrants 0.2 1.1 0.6 Pro forma Net Income 1.3 1.7 3.4 5.3 2.1 2.9 5.9 5.1 4.4 5.2 6.4 8.3 Accredition of preferred stock (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) Net income (loss) available to common 1.0 0.5 2.7 5.3 2.1 2.9 5.9 5.1 4.4 5.2 6.4 8.3 Pro Forma Net Income to common 1.1 1.6 3.3 5.3 2.1 2.9 5.9 5.1 4.4 5.2 6.4 8.3 219 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 141: MercadoLibre Quarterly Income Statement (cont.) Net Attributable to preferred 0.7 0.3 0.9 - - - - - - - - - Net income ex. attributable to preferred 0.3 0.2 1.8 5.3 2.1 2.9 5.9 5.1 4.4 5.2 6.4 8.3 EPS ex. Attributable to preferred 0.02 0.01 0.07 0.12 0.05 0.07 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.18 Pro Forma EPS 0.04 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.06 0.10 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.18 Sharecount 13.4 14.0 27.5 44.1 44.2 44.2 44.3 44.4 44.5 44.6 44.7 44.8 Diluted Sharecount 13.4 14.0 27.7 44.3 44.4 44.4 44.4 44.6 44.7 44.8 44.9 45.0 % of Revenues Payment Revenue 13.8% 15.2% 20.4% 21.6% 18.6% 17.9% 21.2% 25.1% 22.4% 23.8% 23.0% 21.2% Auction Revenue 86.2% 84.8% 79.6% 78.4% 81.4% 82.1% 78.8% 74.9% 77.6% 76.2% 77.0% 78.8% Operating Expenses, % of revenues Total Cost of Sales 21.2% 21.5% 22.8% 22.9% 20.9% 20.0% 20.3% 21.5% 21.6% 21.5% 21.5% 21.3% Product and Technology Development 5.9% 5.4% 5.1% 4.5% 6.0% 5.0% 4.3% 4.7% 5.9% 5.7% 5.0% 4.2% Sales and Marketing 38.4% 33.4% 30.6% 29.6% 32.0% 29.8% 28.4% 31.1% 32.1% 32.1% 31.3% 30.9% General and Administrative 16.3% 14.8% 15.3% 15.8% 17.2% 17.1% 18.0% 16.7% 16.2% 16.1% 16.1% 14.9% Total Operating Expenses 60.5% 53.6% 51.0% 50.0% 56.4% 56.3% 50.7% 52.5% 54.2% 53.9% 52.4% 50.0% Y/Y Growth Rates Payment Revenues 60.9% 81.5% 141.8% 141.1% 136.7% 113.4% 82.9% 48.1% 37.0% 45.7% 17.2% 23.3% Auction Revenues 48.1% 49.1% 60.6% 61.5% 65.4% 76.0% 75.0% 21.2% 8.2% 1.4% 5.0% 54.2% Total Revenues 49.8% 53.2% 72.4% 73.9% 75.2% 81.7% 76.6% 27.0% 13.6% 9.4% 7.6% 46.4% Product and Technology Development 38.0% 34.7% 48.0% 48.0% 79.0% 68.2% 51.1% 32.4% 10.9% 24.1% 24.1% 30.9% Sales and Marketing 24.9% 14.4% 15.4% 18.6% 45.9% 62.2% 63.6% 33.3% 14.1% 17.9% 18.7% 45.5% General and Administrative 39.1% 48.0% 67.6% 89.7% 84.9% 109.1% 108.4% 34.1% 7.2% 3.2% -4.0% 30.6% Total Operating Expenses 29.7% 24.1% 30.4% 37.3% 63.4% 91.0% 75.8% 33.5% 9.0% 4.6% 11.1% 39.5% Q/Q Growth Rates Payment Revenues -5.9% 27.5% 61.3% 24.5% -7.6% 14.9% 38.3% 0.8% -14.5% 22.3% 11.2% 6.1% Auction Revenues 8.7% 13.3% 12.8% 16.3% 11.3% 20.6% 12.1% -19.4% -0.6% 13.0% 16.1% 18.3% Total Revenues 6.4% 15.3% 20.2% 18.0% 7.2% 19.5% 16.8% -15.1% -4.1% 15.1% 14.9% 15.5% Product and Technology Development 18.9% 5.7% 12.2% 5.0% 43.8% -0.7% 0.8% -8.0% 20.3% 11.2% 0.8% -3.0% Sales and Marketing -6.0% 0.2% 10.3% 14.1% 15.6% 11.4% 11.3% -7.0% -1.0% 15.1% 12.0% 14.0% General and Administrative 19.3% 5.1% 23.9% 22.1% 16.3% 18.8% 23.5% -21.4% -7.0% 14.4% 14.9% 6.9% Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates 220 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 142: MercadoLibre Annual Balance Sheet $ in millions 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E Assets Current assets Cash and cash equivalents 15.7 12.5 41.2 80.2 Short-term investments 52.3 20.5 20.5 20.5 Accounts receivable 3.2 4.0 5.9 8.2 Funds receivable from customers 29.2 33.2 47.8 66.0 Prepaid expenses 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.1 Deferred tax assets 3.4 3.9 5.6 7.7 Other current assets 0.9 1.8 2.8 4.0 Total Current Assets 105.0 77.0 125.3 188.6 Non-current assets Long-term investments 1.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 Property & equipment, net 4.1 6.1 6.9 7.7 Gooodwill & intangibles, net 23.4 80.6 80.6 80.6 Deferred tax assets 0.3 - - - Other assets 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 Total Non-Current Assets 29.5 90.2 91.0 91.8 Total Assets 134.5 167.2 216.3 280.5 Current liabilities Accounts payable and accrued expenses 9.3 12.8 19.2 27.1 Funds payable to customers 16.4 15.4 23.7 33.6 Social security payable 3.8 4.5 6.3 8.6 Taxes payable 2.5 3.5 5.1 7.1 Loans payable 9.7 18.5 18.5 18.5 Provisions 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 Total Current Liabilities 41.8 55.6 73.8 95.9 Non-current liabilities Loans payable - - - - Other liabilities 1.1 4.0 5.2 6.4 Total non-current liabilities 1.1 4.0 5.2 6.4 Total Liabilities 42.8 59.6 79.0 102.4 Shareholders equity Common stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Additional paid-in capital 121.9 125.7 131.2 138.3 Accumulated deficit (34.4) (18.3) 5.9 39.6 Accumulated other comprehensive income 4.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total shareholders' equity (deficit) 91.7 107.5 137.3 178.1 Total Liabilities and shareholders' equity 134.5 167.2 216.3 280.5 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. . 0.0 Other, net 0.8 (1.4) 0.0 0.0 Net cash in financing activities (533.5) (674.0) 0.0 0.0 00 00 00 Net cash used in continuing operations (222 .6) 450.6. stock (0.3) - - - Net income (loss) available to common 9.5 16.0 24.2 33.7 Pro Forma Net Income to common 11.4 16.0 24.2 33.7 Net Attributable to preferred