Tài liệu Nothing But Net 2009 Internet Investment Guide 18 pdf

171 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 94: NILE Quarterly Income Statement (cont.) Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08E Q1-09E Q2-09E Q3-09E Q4-09E Pro Forma Net Income 4.0 4.7 3.9 8.7 3.7 4.4 3.4 7.5 2.3 3.4 3.5 7.2 Reported EPS 0.19 0.23 0.18 0.45 0.16 0.20 0.15 0.42 0.07 0.14 0.15 0.40 Pro Forma EPS 0.24 0.28 0.23 0.51 0.23 0.28 0.22 0.51 0.16 0.23 0.24 0.49 Diluted Shares 16.5 16.6 16.9 16.9 16.3 16.0 15.2 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 % of Total Revenue Cost of Revenue 80.5% 79.3% 80.2% 78.9% 80.2% 79.5% 79.7% 78.5% 80.2% 79.5% 79.7% 78.5% Gross Profit 19.5% 20.7% 19.8% 21.1% 19.8% 20.5% 20.3% 21.5% 19.8% 20.5% 20.3% 21.5% SG&A 14.1% 13.7% 14.5% 12.1% 15.5% 14.6% 15.3% 12.9% 18.8% 17.0% 16.1% 13.8% Q/Q change Total Revenue -25.2% 6.2% -6.6% 66.1% -37.0% 4.6% -11.3% 54.3% -41.0% 9.4% -2.6% 65.5% Cost of Revenue -24.1% 4.6% -5.5% 63.4% -35.9% 3.6% -11.0% 52.0% -39.7% 8.4% -2.3% 63.0% SG&A -9.6% 3.6% -1.7% 39.3% -19.7% -1.3% -7.2% 30.4% -14.0% -1.1% -7.7% 41.8% Y/Y Change Total Revenue 34.0% 26.7% 26.5% 23.3% 3.8% 2.2% -2.9% -9.8% -15.5% -11.7% -3.0% 4.0% Cost of Revenue 35.6% 25.4% 26.1% 22.5% 3.4% 2.5% -3.5% -10.3% -15.6% -11.7% -3.0% 4.0% SG&A 24.1% 27.9% 17.8% 28.4% 13.9% 8.6% 2.4% -4.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.3% 11.3% Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. . 172 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 95: NILE Annual Balance Sheet $ in millions 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E Assets Cash and cash equivalents 122.8 61.6 74.1 100.6 Restricted cash - - - - Marketable securities - - - - Accounts receivable 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.9 Inventories 20.9 23.0 25.7 28.7 Deferred income taxes 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 Prepaids and other current assets 1.1 2.0 2.8 3.8 Total Current Assets 149.1 90.5 106.8 137.6 Property and equipment, net 7.6 7.4 5.7 8.6 Intangible assets, net 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Deferred income taxes, net 3.5 4.7 2.0 2.0 Other assets 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Total Long Term Assets 11.4 12.5 8.1 10.9 Total Assets 160.6 103.0 114.9 148.5 Liabilities Accounts payable 85.9 82.9 79.3 86.0 Accrued liabilities 9.5 8.5 9.2 10.0 Accrued marketing - - - - Current portion of deferred rent 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 Current portion of note payable to related party - - - - Current portion of subordinated notes payable - - - - Current portion of capital lease obligations 0.0 - - - Total Current Liabilities 95.7 91.5 88.7 96.3 Deferred rent, less current portion 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 Note payable to related party, less current portion - - - - Capital lease obligations, less current portion 0.9 - - - Redeemable convertible preferred stock - - - - Total Long Term Liabilities 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Total Liabilities 97.1 91.9 89.1 96.7 Shareholder Equity Preferred stock - - - - Common Stock 0.0 - - - Additional Paid in Capital 134.2 - - - Deferred compensation (0.0) - - - Accumulated deficit 24.6 - - - Treasury stock (95.4) - - - Total Equity 63.5 11.0 25.8 51.8 Total Liabilities + Equity 160.6 103.0 114.9 148.5 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. 173 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 96: NILE Annual Cash Flow Statement $ in millions 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E Operating Cash Flows Net income 17.5 14.3 11.2 14.0 Depreciation and amortization 1.8 2.2 2.6 2.6 Loss on asset retirement (0.0) 0.0 - - Stock-based compensation expense 5.8 7.2 8.1 9.2 Warrant based interest expense - - - - Restructuring charges - - - - Deferred income taxes (1.4) (1.1) (0.7) (0.7) Tax benefit from exercise of stock options 6.8 0.5 - - Excess tax benefit from exercise of stock options (1.8) (0.1) - - Changes in working capital 12.8 (7.1) (6.7) 3.4 Receivables, net (1.9) 0.2 (0.3) (0.3) Inventories (6.3) (2.1) (2.7) (3.0) Prepaid expenses and other assets (0.3) (0.9) (0.9) (0.9) Accounts payable 19.2 (3.0) (3.6) 6.8 Accrued liabilities 2.2 (1.1) 0.7 0.8 Deferred rent (0.1) (0.2) 0.0 0.0 Cash From Operations 41.5 15.9 14.5 28.5 FCF 36.6 14.0 12.5 26.5 -5.3% -61.8% -10.4% 111.8% Investing Cash Flows Purchases of property and equipment (4.9) (2.0) (2.0) (2.0) Proceeds from sales of property and equipment 0.0 0.0 - - Transfers to restricted cash 0.1 - - - Purchase/Sale of marketable securities 19.8 - - - Cash From Investing 15.0 (1.9) (2.0) (2.0) Financing Cash Flows Proceeds from sale of common stock, net of issuance costs Proceeds from sale of mandatorily redeemable convertible preferred stock, net of issuance costs - - - - Repurchase of restricted and common stock (20.0) (78.3) - - Proceeds from stock option exercises 5.9 3.0 - - Excess tax benefit from exercise of stock options 1.8 0.1 - - Net repayments on line of credit (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) - Payments on subordinated notes payable - - - - Payments on capital lease obligations 0 - - - Payments on note payable to related party 0 - - - Payment on note payable 0 - - - Proceeds from warrant and stock option exercises 0 - - - Cash From Financing (12.3) (75.2) (0.0) - F/X Effects 0.1 0.0 - - Net Increase (decrease) in cash 44.3 (61.2) 12.5 26.5 Beginning Cash 78.6 122.8 61.6 74.1 Ending Cash 122.8 61.6 74.1 100.6 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. 174 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Dice Holdings, Neutral, ($4.11) We are downgrading Dice Holdings from Overweight to Neutral. Although we believe the company is well-run, we think the current environment, esp. in the financial sector, will not present Dice with significant opportunities for growth. As such, we believe investors would do better to stay on the sidelines. • Economic, employment outlook present significant headwinds. With companies in a wide variety of fields announcing layoffs, we believe unemployment is likely to keep rising in the near term, and we expect a hiring recovery to lag the broader economy; in the last two recessions, unemployment peaked after growth had resumed. Even while a majority of package customers are likely to renew, we think churn may rise as employers shelve hiring plans. • eFC segment’s exposure to financials could stymie growth… eFC accounted for nearly a quarter of Dice Holdings revenue in F’08. As the financial industry is likely poised to continue shedding jobs for several quarters, especially in the US and UK, growth in the segment could be very hard to come by, and we don’t think the unit’s operations outside the US and UK have reached the scale to make a meaningful contribution to growth. • …and the tech picture is not much brighter. Numerous technology firms have announced layoffs as well as hiring slowdowns. We do not expect hiring to pick up in the near term, until after consumer spending turns around. Thus, we believe the outlook for growth in the company’s tech vertical remains similarly clouded. • Cost control by management likely to maintain profitability through tough times. We believe management is very conscious of costs and quite willing to make the expense structure, especially in Sales and Marketing, appropriate to the revenue stream. • 2009 drivers. In our view, the following factors will drive shares in 2009: (1) the employment outlook in the US and UK, (2) the health of the financial industry and hiring trends within finance, and (3) the continuing shift of employment advertising from offline to online resources. • Maintaining 4Q’08 estimates. We are maintaining our 4Q’08 estimates of $36M in revenue, $16 of EBITDA and EPS of $0.07, as well as our F’08 and F’09 estimates, which are outlined in the table below, along with our newly introduced F’10 estimates: Table 97: Dice Holdings Financial Snapshot $ in millions, except per share data DHX Y/Y 4Q’08E F’08E F’09E F’10E F’08E F’09E F’10E JPM Revenue 36 156 147 154 9% -6% 5% EBITDA 16 67 64 68 7% -5% 6% EPS $ 0.07 $ 0.35 $ 0.28 $ 0.29 34% -20% 2% Consensus Revenue 36 156 143 138 10% -8% -4% EBITDA 16 66 57 58 5% -14% 2% EPS $ 0.08 $ 0.35 $ 0.29 $ 0.38 32% -16% 29% Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data, and Bloomberg 175 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Our Estimates and Outlook for 2009 We think the employment market is likely to remain pressured through F’09. We are modeling a Y/Y decline in revenue for Dice Holdings, to $147M, down 6% Y/Y. Our EBITDA estimate is $64M, and we are modeling ~20 bps of margin expansion as the company has committed to manage its marketing costs against the tougher climate. We are also maintaining our F’09 EPS estimate of $0.28. Our Estimates and Outlook for 2010 We are introducing estimates for F’10. We believe the company could begin to see revenue rebound in that year, and we are modeling 5% revenue growth in F’10, to $154M. Our new F’10 EBITDA estimate is $68M, and we are projecting EPS to rise 1c Y/Y, to $0.29. Valuation and Rating Analysis DHX trades at 4.7x our F’09E EBITDA, a 27% discount to the 6.5x peer group average. Despite the company’s international growth prospects and strong free cash flow generation, we believe the difficult outlook for the employment market makes multiple expansion unlikely in the near term. As such, we are downgrading DHX to Neutral, from Overweight. Investment Risks We believe there are several risks to our Neutral rating on Dice: • Upside risks: Our Neutral thesis is predicated on prolonged economic challenges on both a macro level and in the financial and tech sectors more specifically. Should our expectations prove too pessimistic for the macro economy or for one of the specific industries, the company could outperform our estimates. Additionally, if the company is better able to retain clients than we expect in this environment, results could exceed our expectations. • Downside risks: should the economic challenges persist longer than we expect (either broadly or in one of the two verticals on which Dice is focused), or should the company have trouble managing costs against declining revenue, the stock could see further weakness. Additionally, Dice operates in a highly competitive landscape, with over 1,000 websites offering job postings, including some, such as Monster, CareerBuilder and HotJobs, with significantly more financial resources than Dice. In addition, social networking sites, such as Facebook and LinkedIn, have been generating significant traffic growth and are looking at job listings as a way to monetize traffic, while online classified companies, such as Craigslist, offer job listings for free or a small fee. Success of any of Dice’s competitors in the technology and financial verticals could negatively impact our growth expectations. 176 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 98: Dice Holdings Annual Income Statement $ in millions FY -2007 FY-2008E FY-2009E FY-2010E Reported Revenue DCS online revenue 102.2 107.6 103.8 108.4 eFC - UK/ROW revenue 29.7 37.5 33.5 35.0 Other Segments 10.5 10.4 9.4 10.3 Total revenues: 142.3 155.5 146.6 153.6 Y/Y revenue growth 70.7% 9.2% -5.7% 4.8% Proforma Total revenues: 143.9 155.5 146.6 153.6 Y/Y revenue growth 37.8% 8.1% -5.7% 4.8% Reported operating expenses: Cost of Revenues (includes stock-based compensation) 8.6 9.8 9.1 9.4 Product Development (includes stock-based compensation) 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.7 Sales and marketing (includes stock-based compensation) 53.4 57.9 54.9 57.6 General and Administrative (includes stock-based compensation) 19.2 21.6 20.8 21.5 Share Based Compensation 4.1 5.6 6.3 7.2 Depreciation 3.0 3.8 5.0 5.4 Amortization 19.1 16.8 16.4 17.0 Impairment of intangibles Total reported operating expenses 110.4 114.6 110.6 115.7 Total proforma operating expenses 81.4 88.4 82.9 86.1 Pro Forma EBITDA 62.5 67.1 63.7 67.5 EBITDA Margin 43.5% 43.2% 43.4% 44.0% Income from operations reported 32.0 40.9 36.0 37.9 Operating margin 28.1% 29.9% 28.9% 29.4% Other income Interest income 0.2 2.0 1.2 1.2 Interest expense (13.1) (9.9) (8.1) (8.9) Other expense 0.0 (1.0) 0.0 0.0 Income before taxes reported 19.0 32.0 29.1 30.2 Reported Income tax expense (6.7) (9.4) (10.2) (10.6) Tax rate 35.1% 29.3% 35.0% 35.0% Minority interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Income from continuing operations-reported 12.4 22.6 18.9 19.7 Loss from discontinued operations & Min Int (1.7) 0.5 0.0 0.0 Income tax benefit of discontinued operations 4.0 - 0.0 0.0 Loss from discontinued operations, net tax 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 Net Income reported 14.6 23.2 18.9 19.7 Reported Basic EPS 0.27 0.37 0.30 0.31 Reported Diluted EPS 0.26 0.35 0.28 0.29 Basic sharecount 58.7 62.2 62.3 62.7 Diliuted sharecount 61.0 65.6 66.9 68.1 As % Revenue: Dice revenue 71.0% 69.2% 70.8% 70.6% eFinancial Careers revenue 21.2% 24.1% 22.8% 22.8% Other revenue 7.8% 6.7% 6.4% 6.7% Cost of Revenues 6.0% 6.3% 6.2% 6.1% Product Development 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% Sales and marketing 37.1% 37.3% 37.4% 37.5% General and Administrative 13.3% 13.9% 14.2% 14.0% Share Based Compensation 2.8% 3.6% 4.3% 4.7% Depreciation 2.1% 2.4% 3.4% 3.5% Amortization 13.2% 10.8% 11.2% 11.1% Total operating expenses 56.5% 56.8% 56.6% 56.0% Reported revenue (Y/Y growth) DCS online revenue 28.8% 5.3% -3.5% 4.4% eFC - UK/ROW revenue 80.2% 23.0% -10.8% 4.5% Other NM -0.5% -10.1% 9.6% ProForma EBITDA Growth 65.6% 7.3% -5.1% 6.0% Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. 177 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 99: Dice Holdings Quarterly Income Statement $ in millions FY 07 FY 08E FY 09E 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08E 1Q09E 2Q09E 3Q09E 4Q09E Reported Revenue DCS online revenue 23.4 25.2 26.6 27.1 27.1 27.4 27.2 25.9 25.7 26.0 26.0 26.1 eFC - UK/ROW revenue 5.1 6.5 8.3 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.9 7.9 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.3 Other Segments 1.9 2.6 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.6 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 Total revenues: 30.4 34.4 38.1 39.5 39.6 40.3 39.6 36.0 36.4 36.9 36.7 36.6 Q/Q revenue growth 14.4% 13.1% 10.9% 3.7% 0.1% 1.8% -1.6% -9.2% 1.0% 1.4% -0.4% -0.2% Y/Y revenue growth 89.3% 78.9% 76.5% 48.8% 30.2% 17.2% 4.1% -8.9% -8.1% -8.5% -7.4% 1.8% Pro Forma Revenue: DCS online revenue 23.4 25.2 26.6 27.1 27.1 27.4 27.2 25.9 25.7 26.0 26.0 26.1 eFC - UK/ROW revenue 5.5 6.8 8.5 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.9 7.9 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.3 Other Segments 2.3 2.8 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.9 2.6 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 Proforma Total revenues: 31.1 34.9 38.3 39.5 39.6 40.3 39.6 36.0 36.4 36.9 36.7 36.6 Q/Q revenue growth 5.4% 12.0% 9.9% 3.1% 0.1% 1.8% -1.6% -9.2% 1.0% 1.4% -0.4% -0.2% Y/Y revenue growth 42.9% 38.3% 37.9% 33.7% 27.0% 15.5% 3.4% -8.9% -8.1% -8.5% -7.4% 1.8% Reported operating expenses: Cost of Revenues (1) 1.8 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 Product Development (1) 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Sales and marketing (1) 13.2 13.8 13.5 12.9 14.9 15.9 14.4 12.8 13.8 13.9 13.8 13.4 General and Administrative (1) 3.9 4.4 5.2 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.3 Share Based Compensation 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 Depreciation 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 Amortization 5.2 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 Impairment of intangibles 2.9 Total reported operating expenses 25.8 26.6 27.8 30.1 29.1 30.1 28.6 26.8 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.5 Total proforma operating expenses 19.4 19.9 21.2 20.9 22.7 23.5 22.0 20.2 20.8 21.0 20.8 20.4 Pro Forma EBITDA 11.8 14.9 17.2 18.6 16.8 16.8 17.6 15.9 15.6 15.9 15.9 16.3 EBITDA Margin 37.7% 42.9% 44.8% 47.2% 42.5% 41.7% 44.5% 44.0% 42.9% 43.2% 43.3% 44.4% Income from operations reported 4.6 7.7 10.3 9.4 10.4 10.2 11.0 9.3 8.8 9.1 8.9 9.2 Operating margin 37.7% 27.2% 30.5% 26.7% 29.6% 28.8% 31.5% 29.7% 28.4% 28.8% 28.5% 29.7% Other income Interest income 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Interest expense (2.3) (4.3) (3.4) (3.1) (2.7) (2.5) (2.4) (2.3) (2.0) (2.0) (2.0) (2.1) Other expense - - - - (2.3) 1.2 0.1 - - - - - Income before taxes reported 2.3 3.5 7.3 6.8 6.0 9.3 9.3 7.5 7.1 7.4 7.2 7.4 Reported Income tax expense 0.9 (1.7) (2.8) (3.1) (2.2) (1.8) (2.9) (2.5) (2.5) (2.6) (2.5) (2.6) Tax rate nm 47.8% 38.2% 45.9% 36.7% 19.1% 31.2% 33.7% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% Minority interest - - - - - - - - - - - - Income from continuing operations-reported 3.2 1.8 4.5 3.7 3.8 7.6 6.4 4.9 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.8 178 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 99: Dice Holdings Quarterly Income Statement (cont.) Loss from discontinued operations & Min Int (0.9) 0.2 (0.5) (0.5) 0.5 Income tax benefit of discontinued operations 5.6 (0.5) 0.2 (1.3) - Loss from discontinued operations, net tax 4.7 (0.2) (0.3) (1.9) 0.5 - - - - - - - Net Income reported 7.9 1.6 4.2 1.8 4.3 7.6 6.4 4.9 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.8 Reported Basic EPS 0.14 0.03 0.07 0.03 0.07 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.07 0.08 Reported Diluted EPS 0.14 0.03 0.07 0.03 0.07 0.12 0.10 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 Basic sharecount 55.3 55.3 62.1 62.1 62.1 62.1 62.2 62.2 62.2 62.2 62.3 62.4 Diliuted sharecount 55.3 58.5 64.4 65.8 65.3 65.5 65.8 65.9 66.3 66.7 67.0 67.3 Segments as % of Revenue Dice 76.8% 73.4% 69.7% 68.5% 68.4% 68.1% 68.6% 71.9% 70.6% 70.4% 70.8% 71.3% eFinancial Careers 16.9% 18.9% 21.9% 24.5% 24.7% 24.6% 24.9% 22.0% 22.9% 22.9% 22.8% 22.7% Other 6.2% 7.6% 8.4% 7.0% 6.9% 7.3% 6.5% 6.1% 6.6% 6.7% 6.3% 6.0% Operating Expenses as % of Revenue Cost of Revenues 5.9% 5.6% 6.4% 6.2% 6.1% 6.2% 6.5% 6.5% 6.2% 6.1% 6.4% 6.2% Product Development 3.1% 2.8% 3.1% 2.6% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Sales and marketing 42.4% 39.6% 35.1% 32.8% 37.7% 39.5% 36.2% 35.5% 38.0% 37.8% 37.5% 36.5% General and Administrative 12.7% 12.6% 13.6% 14.2% 14.0% 13.3% 13.5% 14.9% 14.0% 14.0% 14.2% 14.5% Share Based Compensation 1.8% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5% 3.6% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.4% 4.6% Depreciation 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% Amortization 16.8% 13.7% 12.2% 11.1% 10.7% 10.5% 10.6% 11.6% 11.3% 11.1% 11.2% 11.2% Total operating expenses 62.3% 57.1% 55.2% 52.8% 57.5% 58.3% 55.5% 56.0% 57.1% 56.8% 56.7% 55.6% -4.8% Reported revenue (Y/Y growth) DCS online revenue 51.2% 36.3% 27.6% 20.3% 16.0% 8.7% 2.4% -4.4% -5.2% -5.3% -4.4% 0.9% eFC - UK/ROW revenue NM NM NM 230.6% 90.1% 52.7% 18.1% -18.0% -15.0% -15.0% -15.0% 5.0% Other 208.0% 279.7% 319.4% 146.5% 43.2% 11.9% -18.9% -21.0% -12.0% -16.0% -10.0% 0.0% Total revenues: 89.3% 78.9% 76.5% 48.8% 30.2% 17.2% 4.1% -8.9% -8.1% -8.5% -7.4% 1.8% Pro forma revenue (Y/Y growth) DCS online revenue 40.3% 31.7% 26.4% 20.2% 16.0% 8.7% 2.4% -4.4% -5.2% -5.3% -4.4% 0.9% eFC - UK/ROW revenue 67.0% 69.6% 81.3% 96.5% 77.1% 45.9% 16.1% -18.0% -15.0% -15.0% -15.0% 5.0% Other 22.9% 38.8% 55.9% 30.6% 19.4% 3.3% -21.4% -21.0% -12.0% -16.0% -10.0% 0.0% Total revenues: 42.9% 38.3% 37.9% 33.7% 27.0% 15.5% 3.4% -8.9% -8.1% -8.5% -7.4% 1.8% ProForma EBITDA Growth 51.5% 70.2% 64.1% 73.6% 43.1% 12.4% 2.7% -15.0% -7.2% -5.2% -9.9% 2.7% Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: (1) Expense line includes stock-based compensation. 179 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 100: Dice Holdings Annual Balance Sheet $ in millions FY FY FY FY 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E Current assets: Cash and cash equivalents 57.5 73.3 113.6 157.5 Marketable securities 0.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 Accounts Receivable 19.1 14.4 14.7 15.5 Prepaid expenses and other current assets 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 Deferred income taxes 9.9 5.4 Current assets of discotinued operations 0.2 - Total current assets 89.4 103.7 138.9 183.7 Other assets: Fixed assets, net 5.8 6.4 7.2 8.3 Intangible assets, net 78.6 60.7 44.3 27.3 Goodwill 159.8 154.5 154.5 154.5 Deferred financing costs 3.5 2.9 2.9 2.9 Other Assets 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 Non-current assets of discontinued operations 0.1 - - - Deferred tax asset - - - - Reorg value in excess of amounts allocated to identifiable assets - - - - Restricted cash - - - - Total other assets 248.5 224.7 209.1 193.2 Total assets 337.9 328.4 348.1 376.9 Liabilities and stockholders' equity Current liabilities: Accounts payable and accrued expenses 12.0 11.8 12.1 12.9 Total Deferred revenue 46.2 41.4 42.1 44.7 Current portion of long-term debt 0.8 - - - Other current liabilities - - - - Liabilities of discontinued operations 1.4 - - - Amounts due under acquisition agreements - - Federal income tax payable - - Total current liabilities 60.4 53.3 54.3 57.5 Long-Term Debt 123.7 99.0 97.8 96.6 Deferred Income Taxes - non-current 26.1 19.2 19.2 19.2 Other long-term liabilities (includes hedging liabilities) 7.5 7.2 7.2 7.2 Minority interest in net assets of subsidiary Total Long Term Liabilities 157.2 125.4 124.2 123.0 Total liabilities 217.6 178.6 178.5 180.5 Stockholder's Equity Convertible preferred stock - - - - Common stock 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Additional paid-in capital 218.6 224.9 231.2 238.4 Unearned stock based compensation - - - - Accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Treasury stock, 7 shares - - - - Accumulated deficit (103.3) (80.2) (61.3) (41.6) Total Stockholders’ Equity 120.3 149.7 169.6 196.4 Total Liabilities & Stockholders’ Equity 337.9 328.4 348.1 376.9 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. 180 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 101: Dice Holdings Annual Cash Flow Statement $ in millions DICE Statement of Cash Flows, $ in millions FY FY FY FY 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E Net income 14.6 23.2 18.9 19.7 Depreciation 3.0 3.8 5.0 5.4 Amortization 19.1 16.8 16.4 17.0 Deferred income taxes 7.3 1.4 - - Gain of sale of joint venture Amortization of deferred financing costs 0.8 0.6 - - Share based compensation 4.1 5.6 6.3 7.2 Loss on interest rate hedges Provision for doubtful accounts / Impairment - - - Charge related to issuance of stock options - - - Changes in operating assets and liabilities, net of effects of acquisition: 5.7 3.1 0.7 2.4 Accounts receivable (4.1) 4.1 (0.3) (0.9) Prepaid expenses and other assets (1.3) (0.5) (0.1) - Accounts payable and accrued expenses (0.1) 0.6 0.3 0.7 Deferred revenue 11.7 (4.2) 0.7 2.5 Change in restricted cash - - - - Other, net (0.5) 3.1 - - Net cash provided by operating activities of continuing operations 54.5 54.5 47.3 51.6 Purchase of fixed assets (3.8) (4.4) (5.8) (6.5) Acquisitions - - - - Proceeds from sales/divestures - 0.1 - - Purchases of marketable securities (0.2) (49.2) - - Marutities and sales of marketable securities 1.0 40.9 - - Other, net (0.0) - - - Net cash used for investing activities of continuing operations (3.0) (12.7) (5.8) (6.5) Proceeds from LTD 113.0 - - - Payments on LTD (77.6) (24.4) (1.2) (1.2) Dividends paid on convertible preferred stock (107.7) - - - Dividends paid on common stock (0.2) - - - Payments to holders of vested stock options in lieu of dividends (4.6) - - - Issuance of Common Stock 81.0 - - - Issuance of convertible preferred stock - - - - Cash received from transfer agent on behalf of former shareholders of Dice, Inc. - - - - Payments of costs associated with stock issuance (2.9) (0.4) - - Proceeds from stock option exercise 0.3 0.1 - - Financing costs paid (2.4) - - - Other, net Net cash provided by financing activities of continuing operations (1.1) (24.7) (1.2) (1.2) Net cash provided by operating activities of discontinued operations Net cash used in investing activities of discontinued operations Net cash provided by discontinued operations - - - - Effects of exchange rate changes Net change in cash and cash equivalents for the period 50.5 17.1 40.3 43.9 Cash and cash equivalents, beginning of period 5.8 57.5 73.3 113.6 Cash and cash equivalents, end of period 57.5 73.3 113.6 157.5 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. . 137.6 Property and equipment, net 7.6 7.4 5.7 8.6 Intangible assets, net 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Deferred income taxes, net 3.5 4.7 2.0 2.0 Other assets. - 0.0 0.0 Loss from discontinued operations, net tax 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 Net Income reported 14.6 23.2 18. 9 19.7 Reported Basic EPS 0.27 0.37 0.30 0.31