Tài liệu Nothing But Net 2009 Internet Investment Guide 19 pdf

181 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com eBay, Neutral, ($13.96) We are maintaining our Neutral rating on eBay. We believe weakness in usage and conversion, as well as a more competitive broader eCommerce market, present challenges that will make it difficult for eBay stock to outperform in the coming months. Our 12-month price target is $17. • Marketplaces usage metrics point the wrong way. ComScore data indicates that the number of US users coming to eBay’s sites declined 17% Y/Y in the three months ended 10/08. We believe the decreased usage and difficulties in optimizing the search algorithm have resulted in significant weakening of conversion for eBay listings. These factors are offsetting the gains from revitalized listings growth on the platform. • Are online auctions a mature market? Auctions traffic has been anemic, as we believe a more mature eCommerce market is increasingly driving buyers to expect a top-flight user experience and an ability to order items, especially new items, immediately. We think this shift presents a challenge to eBay: auctions are a near-monopoly for the company, whereas consumers seeking immediate purchases have a wealth of options, of which eBay is only one. • PayPal unit remains a prize asset. Payments revenue was up 32% Y/Y through 9M’08, and we are projecting 22% growth in F’09 as the off-eBay side of PayPal remains a key growth contributor; additionally, we expect a slight benefit as the impact of the Bill Me Later acquisition is folded in. • 2009 drivers. In our view, the following factors will drive shares in 2009: (1) changes in Marketplaces conversion driven by better search, (2) corporate structure changes such as a sale of Skype, and (3) the impact of any credit market developments on the receivables book at Bill Me Later. • Maintaining 4Q’08, F’09 estimates. We are maintaining our 4Q’08 and F’09 revenue, EBITDA and EPS estimates; we are introducing new F’10 estimates; all these are summarized in the table below: Table 102: eBay Financial Snapshot $ in millions, except per share data EBAY Y/Y 4Q’08E F’08E F’09E F’10E F’08E F’09E F’10E JPM Revenue 2,185 8,690 9,572 10,770 13% 10% 13% EBITDA 691 3,101 3,202 3,470 7% 3% 8% EPS $ 0.38 $ 1.69 $ 1.75 $ 1.99 10% 4% 14% Consensus Revenue 2,112 8,621 8,793 9,251 12% 2% 5% EBITDA 767 3,190 3,182 3,331 10% 0% 5% EPS $ 0.40 $ 1.70 $ 1.65 $ 1.74 11% -3% 6% Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Company data, and Bloomberg 182 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Key Financial Metrics and Estimates The following tables summarize our revenue forecasts by business segment, as well as our estimate for Y/Y growth in key business metrics. Table 103: eBay Revenue Forecast by Segment $ in millions 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) $59,353.0 $60,838.0 $60,975.3 $66,861.6 % Change Y-Y 13% 3% 0% 10% Total transactions: $6,519.4 $7,157.2 $7,807.9 $8,729.8 eBay online revenue $4,680.8 $4,773.6 $4,901.2 $5,323.5 Payment revenue $1,838.5 $2,383.7 $2,906.7 $3,406.2 Marketing Services Revenue: $788.4 $1,011.0 $1,128.7 $1,300.3 Marketplaces $683.1 $901.2 $1,016.2 $1,177.9 Payments $88.1 $85.3 $84.0 $89.7 Communications $17.3 $24.5 $28.5 $32.7 Skype $364.6 $522.1 $635.0 $740.0 Total revenue $7,672.3 $8,690.4 $9,571.5 $10,770.1 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Table 104: eBay Auction and Payments Metrics Forecasts Auctions in millions 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E Listings (M) 2,340 2,779 3,068 3,291 % Chg Y-Y -1.1% 18.7% 10.4% 7.3% GMV/Listing $25.4 $22.0 $19.9 $20.3 % Chg Y-Y 14.5% -13.2% -9.8% 2.1% Marketplaces Revenue/Listing $2.00 $1.73 $1.60 $1.62 % Chg Y-Y 12.7% -13.6% -7.7% 1.3% Total # of Payments 731.2 875.0 996.9 1,120.1 % Chg Y-Y 19.7% 19.7% 13.9% 12.4% TPV per Payment 64.8 70.1 72.6 74.6 % Chg Y-Y 10.6% 8.2% 3.5% 2.8% Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Our Estimates and Outlook for 2009 We believe the company’s focus on the buyer is well-placed, and several of the measures taken by management, including the DSR system, are a step toward improving the buyer experience on the site. At the same time, we believe F’09 will present continued challenges in (1) improving the appearance of items on the sites and (2) fine-tuning the search and finding functions to better put the right items in front of users. We think eBay is likely to continue making some modifications to its fee structure in order to spur the necessary changes and in order to help keep sellers afloat in a tough environment. We think these operational concerns, as well as macro challenges and an FX headwind, will drive flat Y/Y GMV growth and a 3% increase in Marketplaces Transactional revenue. We think the PayPal business remains healthy, and project 22% revenue growth in F’09, down from 30% in F’08. We anticipate a significant slowdown in the growth of eBay’s Advertising and Non-Transactional revenue, to 12% in F’09, from 28% in F’08. 183 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com We are maintaining our F’09 revenue estimate of $9.57B, our F’09 EBITDA estimate of $3.20B and our F’09 EPS estimate of $1.75. We are projecting a ~240 bps compression in eBay’s gross margin due to the continued shift in business mix toward lower-margin revenue (such as PayPal). We think the company can drive operational efficiencies across its businesses and thus think the operating margin will contract by only ~160 bps Y/Y. Our Estimates and Outlook for 2010 In F’10, we think the company is likely to see growth rates rebound somewhat as the economy begins to recover and as the FX headwind is anniversaried in. We are projecting 10% GMV growth and a 9% rise in Marketplaces Transaction revenue, as well as continued growth at PayPal, with Transaction revenue up 17%. Further, we expect a rebound to 15% Y/Y growth across eBay’s streams of Advertising and Non- Transactional revenue. Our newly introduced forecast calls for F’10 revenue of $10.77B, EBITDA of $3.47B and pro forma EPS of $1.99. We believe business mix will continue to hamper gross margins, down ~80 bps Y/Y in F’10 to 71.8%. At the same time, we expect eBay will continue to successfully manage costs in order to minimize the operating margin impact; for F’10 we are forecasting a ~20 bps Y/Y decline on the operating margin side to 29.4%. We Are Introducing a Price Target of $17 In introducing price targets for our coverage, we have derived multiples based on 5- year forward EBIT CAGRs. We believe the historical record does not provide a meaningful guide to valuation as (a) the majority of the companies in our coverage did not have a track record as public companies through the previous recession and (b) even the public companies were still in their early-growth (and, for some, rapid growth) stage during the last economic downturn. As such, given our projection for eBay of a ~9% F’09 - F’14 EBIT CAGR, and our view of the beginning of a possible economic turnaround in 2H’09, we believe the stock can achieve a 9x EV/EBIT multiple to our F’09 EBIT estimate (reflecting better forward visibility than the current valuation of 7x our F’09 estimate) and thus arrive at our December 2009 price target of $17. The parameters of our EV/EBIT multiple analysis are in the table below: Table 105: Key Valuation Assumptions 5 yr forward EBIT CAGR 9% 1x EBIT Growth 9 2009 EBIT $ 2,172 Implied Enterprise Value $ 19,109 + Cash $ 3,777 - Debt $ 52 Market Value $ 22,835 Share count 1373 2009 Price Target $ 17 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Our EV/EBIT valuation is based on the following projections for revenue and operating income growth 184 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 106: Growth Profile $ in millions 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E Revenues 9,571.5 10,770.1 12,003.3 13,131.6 14,234.6 15,295.1 Y/Y change 12.5% 11% 9% 8% 7% Less: Operating Expenses 7,400.0 8,360.4 9,338.6 10,242.6 11,131.5 11,991.4 As % of total revenues 77.3% 77.6% 77.8% 78.0% 78.2% 78.4% Operating Income (Loss) 2,171.5 2,409.7 2,664.7 2,888.9 3,103.2 3,303.7 Operating margin 22.7% 22.4% 22.2% 22.0% 21.8% 21.6% Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. Valuation and Rating Analysis On a GAAP P/E basis, eBay trades 10.1x our F’09 estimate of $1.39 (which implies 3% Y/Y EPS growth). Due to the challenges we have enumerated above, we believe the stock is unlikely to significantly outperform its peer group in the coming months, and thus we rate it Neutral. Risks to Our Rating Downside risks associated with our Neutral rating include: barriers to international expansion, risks related to the repositioning of eBay’s pricing structure, competition from sponsored search vendors, the company’s dependence on eBay Motors, competition from hardline retailers, risks associated with patent litigation, and valuation risks. International expansion is a concrete part of eBay’s growth strategy. As the company continues to grow outside the U.S., it may face regulatory challenges and/or markets that make its business less profitable than it is in the U.S. or other countries where it is already established. Thus far, we believe eBay’s international expansion has been carried out in a strategic and timely manner. eBay also faces risks from hardline retailers. Although the bulk of eBay’s revenues come from the beginning and end of the retail life cycle, with each passing quarter, the percentage of revenue it earns from the in-season retail and fixed price sales continues to increase. This puts the company in competition with traditional retailers and other e-tailers, including Amazon.com, Wal-Mart, BestBuy, and Home Depot. Failure to meet these challenges could lead to relative stock price underperformance. There may be upside risks to our rating should the company be able to improve its search technology more rapidly than we expect, resulting in an acceleration of trade on the platform. Additionally, if the company takes steps that help the market value the separate parts of the enterprise more fully, the stock could outperform. 185 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 107: eBay Annual Income Statement $ in millions FY FY FY FY 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) $59,353.0 $60,838.0 $60,975.3 $66,861.6 % Change Y-Y 13% 2.5% 0% 10% Payment revenue 1,838.5 $2,383.7 $2,906.7 $3,406.2 eBay online revenue 4,680.8 $4,773.6 $4,901.2 $5,323.5 Total transactions 6,519.4 $7,157.2 $7,807.9 $8,729.8 3rd party adv rev 321.7 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 Marketing Svcs Rev $788.4 $1,011.0 $1,128.7 $1,300.3 Marketplaces $683.1 $901.2 $1,016.2 $1,177.9 Payments $88.1 $85.3 $84.0 $89.7 Communications $17.3 $24.5 $28.5 $32.7 Skype 364.6 $522.1 $635.0 $740.0 Total Online Revenue 7,672.3 $8,690.4 $9,571.5 $10,770.1 Total revenue 7,672.3 8,690.4 9,571.5 10,770.1 Cost of revenue 1,763.0 2,226.4 2,618.4 3,033.8 COGS pro forma adjustment (37.0) (59.6) - - Gross Profit 5,909.4 $6,464.0 $6,953.1 $7,736.3 Gross Profit (pro forma) 5,946.4 $6,523.6 $6,953.1 $7,736.3 Pro Forma Gross Margin 77.5% 75.1% 72.6% 71.8% Sales and Marketing 1,925.4 2,006.3 2,297.2 2,561.0 Product Development 619.7 746.7 882.8 982.5 General and Admin. 1,156.0 1,320.0 1,351.6 1,513.0 Amort., Payroll Taxes, merger other 1,595.0 332.5 250.0 270.0 Total Operating Expenses 5,296.2 4,405.4 4,781.6 5,326.6 Pro forma op ex adjustments: Sales & marketing (81.29) (72.10) - - Product development (76.03) (71.63) - - G&A (107.53) (93.85) - - Payroll exp on empl stock options (5.36) (2.55) - - Amort of acq'd assets (1,610.4) (169.15) - - Total (1,881) (589) (660) (755) Pro forma operating expenses 3,415.6 3,816.2 4,121.6 4,571.6 Operating Profit (reported) 613.2 2,058.6 2,171.5 2,409.7 Operating Margin (reported) 8.0% 23.7% 22.7% 22.4% Operating Profit (pro forma) 2530.8 2707.4 2831.5 3164.7 Operating Margin (pro forma) 33.0% 31.2% 29.6% 29.4% Interest and other income, net 154.3 103.6 69.0 93.0 Interest Expense (16.6) (3.5) - - Net Interest Income 137.7 100.1 69.0 93.0 EBITDA 2,907.6 3,101.0 3,201.5 3,469.7 Y/Y Growth 27% 7% 3% 8% IBT(reported) 750.9 2,158.6 2,240.5 2,502.7 IBT(pro forma) 2,668.5 2,807.5 2,900.5 3,257.7 Income Taxes 402.6 401.1 481.7 538.1 Pro forma adjustment 260.1 145.0 - - Pro forma tax 568.0 591.0 652.6 733.0 - - - - Net Income (reported) 348.3 1,757.5 1,758.8 1,964.6 Net Income (pro forma) 2,100.4 2,216.5 2,247.9 2,524.7 FASB Adjustment net of Taxes Reported Net Income Adj. for FASB123 348.3 1,757.5 1,758.8 1,964.6 Pro Forma NI Adj. for FASB 123 2,100.4 2,216.5 2,247.9 2,524.7 EPS (reported) 0.25 1.35 1.39 1.57 EPS (pro forma) 1.53 1.69 1.75 1.99 Reported EPS Adj. for FASB123 0.25 1.35 1.39 1.57 EPS (pro forma) y/y 46% 10% 3.9% 13.7% 186 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 107: eBay Annual Income Statement (cont.)) GAAP Diluted Share count 1,367.7 1,305.8 1,268.9 1,253.6 Pro Forma Diluted Outstanding Shares 1,376.3 1,315.1 1,283.9 1,268.6 2 As a % of Revenue Payment revenue 24.0% 27.4% 30.4% 31.6% eBay online revenue 61.0% 54.9% 51.2% 49.4% Third Party Advertising revenue 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Skype Revenue 4.8% 6.0% 6.6% 6.9% Cost of goods sold 23.0% 25.6% 27.4% 28.2% Sales & marketing 25.1% 23.1% 24.0% 23.8% Product development 8.1% 8.6% 9.2% 9.1% G&A 15.1% 15.2% 14.1% 14.0% Total operating expenses 69.0% 50.7% 50.0% 49.5% Operating income (reported) 8.0% 23.7% 22.7% 22.4% Operating income (pro forma) 33.0% 31.2% 29.6% 29.4% Net income (reported) 4.5% 20.2% 18.4% 18.2% Net income (pro forma) 27.4% 25.5% 23.5% 23.4% Tax Rate 53.6% 18.6% 21.5% 21.5% Pro forma tax rate 21.3% 21.1% 22.5% 22.5% Year-Over-Year Growth Payment revenue 31.2% 29.7% 21.9% 17.2% eBay online revenue 11.4% 2.0% 2.7% 8.6% Third Party Advertising revenue 87.2% End-to-end services revenue NM NM NM NM Communications Revenue 89.1% 43.2% 21.6% 16.5% Total online revenue 28.5% 13.3% 10.1% 12.5% Sales & marketing 16.4% 4.2% 14.5% 11.5% Product development 25.3% 20.5% 18.2% 11.3% G&A 22.8% 14.2% 2.4% 11.9% Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. 187 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 108: eBay Quarterly Income Statement $ in millions FY 2007 FY 2008E FY 2009E Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08E Q1-09E Q2-09E Q3-09E Q4-09E Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) $14,281.0 $14,464.0 $14,395.0 $16,213.0 $16,036.0 $15,684.0 $14,284.0 $14,834.0 $14,846.2 $14,723.2 $15,195.6 $16,210.4 % Change Y-Y 14.2% 12.2% 13.9% 12.3% 12.3% 8.4% -0.8% -8.5% -7.4% -6.1% 6.4% 9.3% % Change Q-Q -1% 1% 0% 13% -1% -2% -9% 4% 0% -1% 3% 7% Payment revenue 419.0 432.3 448.0 539.3 559.7 580.3 576.3 667.4 693.6 686.4 721.5 805.1 eBay online revenue 1,111.4 1,133.3 1,155.9 1,280.3 1,267.6 1,233.3 1,163.9 1,108.7 1,196.8 1,182.3 1,217.2 1,304.9 Total transactions 1,530.4 1,565.6 1,603.8 1,819.6 1,827.4 1,813.6 1,740.2 1,776.1 1,890.4 1,868.8 1,938.7 2,110.0 3rd party adv rev (old metric) 60.5 76.2 77.0 108.1 Marketing Services Rev 163.7 182.5 191.6 250.6 245.1 251.9 240.1 273.9 276.3 281.9 264.9 305.6 Marketplaces 138.8 157.3 164.7 222.2 216.7 224.7 213.0 246.8 248.0 254.6 236.3 277.2 Payments 20.3 21.9 22.4 23.4 21.9 21.5 20.9 21.1 20.8 20.4 21.3 21.5 Communications 4.5 3.3 4.4 5.0 6.5 5.7 6.3 6.0 7.5 6.8 7.2 6.9 Skype 74.0 86.4 93.8 110.4 119.8 130.2 137.2 135.0 145.0 155.0 165.0 170.0 Total Online Revenue 1,768.1 1,834.4 1,889.2 2,180.6 2,192.2 2,195.7 2,117.5 2,185.0 2,311.7 2,305.6 2,368.6 2,585.7 Total revenue $1,768.1 $1,834.4 $1,889.2 $2,180.6 $2,192.2 $2,195.7 $2,117.5 $2,185.0 $2,311.7 $2,305.6 $2,368.6 $2,585.7 Cost of revenue 393.7 416.8 446.5 506.0 525.4 562.1 561.0 577.9 623.0 625.8 655.3 714.3 COGS pro forma adjustment (8.8) (9.6) (9.1) (9.5) (16.6) (17.6) (10.4) (15.0) Gross Profit 1,374.4 1,417.6 1,442.7 1,674.6 1,666.8 1,633.6 1,556.6 1,607.1 1,688.7 1,679.8 1,713.2 1,871.3 Gross Profit (pro forma) 1,383.2 1,427.3 1,451.8 1,684.1 1,683.4 1,651.2 1,567.0 1,622.1 1,688.7 1,679.8 1,713.2 1,871.3 Pro Forma Gross Margin 78.2% 77.8% 76.8% 77.2% 76.8% 75.2% 74.0% 74.2% 73.1% 72.9% 72.3% 72.4% Sales and Marketing 443.3 477.8 485.2 519.1 527.2 512.8 457.2 509.1 557.1 558.0 559.0 623.1 Product Development 137.6 147.9 164.9 169.3 176.8 186.8 190.8 192.3 210.4 212.1 225.0 235.3 General and Admin. 278.4 283.5 287.4 306.7 355.3 333.7 331.7 299.3 335.2 322.8 331.6 362.0 Amort., Payroll Taxes, merger other 47.35 51.55 1,442.8 53.3 54.83 54.9 52.7 170.0 70.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 Total Operating Expenses 906.6 960.7 2380.4 1048.5 1114.0 1088.2 1032.493 1170.7 1172.7 1152.9 1175.6 1280.4 Pro forma op ex adjustments: Sales & marketing (19.2) (23.1) (22.2) (16.8) (23.8) (24.6) (23.75) - - - - - Product development (16.0) (19.4) (21.4) (19.3) (23.5) (24.7) (23.46) - - - - - G&A (28.0) (27.5) (27.9) (24.1) (29.6) (31.6) (32.65) - - - - - Payroll exp on employee stock options (1.8) (1.3) (2.3) - (0.3) (1.7) (0.50) - - - - - Amortization of acquired assets (51.9) (56.9) (1,448.3) (53.3) (54.8) (54.9) (59.40) Total (116.9) (128.2) (1,522.0) (113.5) (132.0) (137.5) (139.8) (180.00) (150.00) (150.00) (180.00) (180.00) Pro forma operating expenses 789.7 832.5 858.4 935.0 982.0 950.7 892.7 990.7 1022.7 1002.9 995.6 1100.4 Operating Profit (reported) 467.8 456.9 -937.7 626.1 552.8 545.4 524.1 436.3 516.0 526.9 537.6 590.9 Operating Margin (reported) 26.5% 24.9% -49.6% 28.7% 25.2% 24.8% 24.7% 20.0% 22.3% 22.9% 22.7% 22.9% Operating Profit (pro forma) 593.5 594.7 593.4 749.1 701.4 700.5 674.2 631.3 666.0 676.9 717.6 770.9 Operating Margin (pro forma) 33.6% 32.4% 31.4% 34.4% 32.0% 31.9% 31.8% 28.9% 28.8% 29.4% 30.3% 29.8% Interest and other income, net 30.0 34.0 38.4 51.9 29.6 23.4 38.6 12.0 15.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 Interest Expense (4.5) (2.7) (2.7) (6.6) (2.9) (0.6) 0.0 - - - - - Net Interest Income 25.5 31.2 35.6 45.3 26.7 22.8 38.6 12.0 15.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 EBITDA 683.2 683.2 685.6 855.6 806.1 810.6 792.9 691.3 771.0 781.9 797.6 850.9 188 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 108: eBay Quarterly Income Statement (cont.) Y/Y Growth 29% 27% 25% 28% 18% 19% 16% -19% -4% -4% 1% 23% IBT(reported) $493.3 $488.1 ($902.1) $671.5 $579.5 $568.1 $562.6 $448.3 $531.0 $542.9 $555.6 $610.9 IBT(pro forma) $619.0 $626.0 $629.1 $794.4 $728.1 $723.3 $712.8 $643.3 $681.0 $692.9 $735.6 $790.9 Income Taxes 116.1 112.3 33.6 140.6 119.8 107.8 70.4 103.1 114.2 116.7 119.5 131.3 Pro forma adjustment 42.3 42.5 31.7 48.9 46.8 47.928 50.3 Pro forma tax 158.4 154.8 65.3 189.4 166.6 155.7 120.7 148.0 153.2 155.9 165.5 178.0 Net Income (reported) 377.2 375.8 (935.6) 530.9 459.7 460.3 492.2 345.2 416.9 426.2 436.2 479.6 Net Income (pro forma) 460.5 471.1 563.8 605.0 561.5 567.5 592.1 495.4 527.8 537.0 570.1 612.9 FASB Adjustment net of Taxes Reported Net Income Adj. for FASB123 377.2 375.8 (935.6) 530.9 459.7 460.3 492.2 345.2 416.9 426.2 436.2 479.6 Pro Forma NI Adj. for FASB 123 460.5 471.1 563.8 605.0 561.5 567.5 592.1 495.4 527.8 537.0 570.1 612.9 EPS (reported) 0.27 0.27 (0.69) 0.39 0.34 0.35 0.38 0.27 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.38 EPS (pro forma) 0.33 0.34 0.41 0.44 0.42 0.43 0.46 0.38 0.41 0.42 0.44 0.48 Reported EPS Adj. for FASB123 0.27 0.27 (0.69) 0.39 0.34 0.35 0.38 0.27 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.38 EPS (pro forma) y/y 39% 40% 59% 44% 26% 25% 11% -13% -2% -2% -3% 25% GAAP Diluted Share count 1,384.3 1,379.7 1,354.8 1,352.1 1,333.8 1,312.0 1,288.9 1,288.6 1,274.7 1,270.8 1,267.0 1,263.1 Pro Forma Diluted Outstanding Shares 1,384.3 1,379.7 1,373.3 1,368.1 1,344.0 1,325.1 1,297.5 1,293.6 1,289.7 1,285.8 1,282.0 1,278.1 2 1 370 7 175 As a % of Revenue Payment revenue 23.7% 23.6% 23.7% 24.7% 25.5% 26.4% 27.2% 30.5% 30.0% 29.8% 30.5% 31.1% eBay online revenue 62.9% 61.8% 61.2% 58.7% 57.8% 56.2% 55.0% 50.7% 51.8% 51.3% 51.4% 50.5% Third Party Advertising revenue 3.4% 4.2% 4.1% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Skype Revenue 4.2% 4.7% 5.0% 5.1% 5.5% 5.9% 6.5% 6.2% 6.3% 6.7% 7.0% 6.6% Cost of goods sold 22.3% 22.7% 23.6% 23.2% 24.0% 25.6% 26.5% 26.4% 26.9% 27.1% 27.7% 27.6% Sales & marketing 25.1% 26.0% 25.7% 23.8% 24.0% 23.4% 21.6% 23.3% 24.1% 24.2% 23.6% 24.1% Product development 7.8% 8.1% 8.7% 7.8% 8.1% 8.5% 9.0% 8.8% 9.1% 9.2% 9.5% 9.1% G&A 15.7% 15.5% 15.2% 14.1% 16.2% 15.2% 15.7% 13.7% 14.5% 14.0% 14.0% 14.0% Total operating expenses 51.3% 52.4% 126.0% 48.1% 50.8% 49.6% 48.8% 53.6% 50.7% 50.0% 49.6% 49.5% Operating income (reported) 26.5% 24.9% -49.6% 28.7% 25.2% 24.8% 24.7% 20.0% 22.3% 22.9% 22.7% 22.9% Operating income (pro forma) 33.6% 32.4% 31.4% 34.4% 32.0% 31.9% 31.8% 28.9% 28.8% 29.4% 30.3% 29.8% Net income (reported) 21.3% 20.5% -49.5% 24.3% 21.0% 21.0% 23.2% 15.8% 18.0% 18.5% 18.4% 18.5% Net income (pro forma) 26.0% 25.7% 29.8% 27.7% 25.6% 25.8% 28.0% 22.7% 22.8% 23.3% 24.1% 23.7% Tax Rate 23.5% 23.0% -3.7% 20.9% 20.7% 19.0% 12.5% 23.0% 21.5% 21.5% 21.5% 21.5% Pro forma tax rate 25.6% 24.7% 10.4% 23.8% 22.9% 21.5% 16.9% 23.0% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% Year-Over-Year Growth Payment revenue 27.7% 30.7% 31.7% 33.8% 33.6% 34.2% 28.7% 23.7% 23.9% 18.3% 25.2% 20.6% eBay online revenue 12.2% 13.7% 13.6% 6.8% 14.1% 8.8% 0.7% -13.4% -5.6% -4.1% 4.6% 17.7% Third Party Advertising revenue 65.3% 96.2% 86.5% 96.1% Communications Revenue 110.4% 95.6% 87.6% 74.0% 61.9% 50.7% 46.2% 22.3% 21.0% 19.1% 20.3% 25.9% Total online revenue 27.2% 30.0% 30.4% 26.8% 24.0% 19.7% 12.1% 0.2% 5.4% 5.0% 11.9% 18.3% Offline Revenue NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM Sales & marketing 10.7% 20.0% 22.9% 12.5% 18.9% 7.3% -5.8% -1.9% 5.7% 8.8% 22.3% 22.4% Product development 15.6% 19.3% 36.9% 29.0% 28.5% 26.3% 15.7% 13.6% 19.0% 13.6% 17.9% 22.4% G&A 29.3% 27.2% 26.5% 11.2% 27.6% 17.7% 15.4% -2.4% -5.6% -3.3% 0.0% 20.9% Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates 189 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 109: eBay Annual Balance Sheet $ in millions FY FY FY FY 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E Assets Cash and cash equivalents 4,221.2 2,692.0 5,163.7 7,986.4 ST investments in marketable securities* 676.3 301.1 301.1 301.1 Accounts receivable, net 480.6 447.9 568.8 636.8 Funds receivable* 1,513.6 1,606.0 1,939.3 2,171.0 Other assets* 230.9 372.2 372.2 372.2 Total current assets 7,122.5 5,419.2 8,345.1 11,467.6 Investments 138.2 133.6 133.6 133.6 Property and equipment, net 1,120.5 1,175.5 1,055.5 970.5 Intangible assets, net 6,853.2 6,639.7 6,639.7 6,639.7 Other assets, net 131.7 243.0 243.0 243.0 Total assets 15,366.0 13,611.0 16,416.9 19,454.4 Liabilities and stockholders' equity Accounts payable 156.6 207.6 155.1 173.7 Funds payable 1,513.6 1,606.0 1,939.3 2,171.0 Deferred Revenue 166.5 185.7 181.0 202.6 Short term debt - - - - Taxes payable 111.8 96.2 96.2 96.2 Other current liabilities 1,151.1 804.6 804.6 804.6 Total current liabilities 3,099.6 2,900.1 3,176.2 3,448.1 Debt - - - - Deferred taxes 510.6 639.9 639.9 639.9 Other long term 51.3 51.8 51.8 51.8 Total liabilities 3,661.4 3,591.9 3,868.0 4,139.9 - - - - Total stockholders' equity 11,704.6 10,019.2 12,548.9 15,314.5 Total L&S 15,366.0 13,611.0 16,416.9 19,454.4 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. 190 Global Equity Research 05 Januar y 2009 Imran Khan (1-212) 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Table 110: eBay Annual Cash Flow Statement $ in millions FY FY FY FY 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E OPERATING CASH FLOWS Net Income 348.3 1,757.5 1,758.8 1,964.6 Depreciation 601.7 687.9 680.0 680.0 Amortization - - - - Stock based comp expense related to stock options and purchases 301.8 354.5 350.0 380.0 Tax Benefit 143.2 68.2 120.0 120.0 Excess tax benefit from stock-based compensation (84.8) Impairment - - - - Minority Interest - - - - Doubtful Accounts/Losses 235.7 285.7 301.0 301.0 Other 1,390.9 - - - Changes in Working Capital (295.7) (261.6) (178.1) (27.8) Accounts Receivable (185.62) (59.08) (120.92) (67.98) Fund Receivable (25.78) (92.40) (333.27) (231.74) Other (504.99) (138.34) - - Deferred Tax (141.40) (110.95) - - Accounts Payable 36.95 23.60 (52.44) 18.54 Funds Payable 336.88 92.40 333.27 231.74 Accrued Charges (18.83) (105.12) - - Deferred Revenue 37.81 17.43 (4.73) 21.63 Income Taxes 169.29 110.85 - - Cash From Operations 2,641.1 2,887.5 3,031.7 3,417.8 % Chg Y-Y 17.5% 9.3% 5.0% 12.7% FCF 2,187.1 2,350.8 2,471.7 2,822.8 % Chg Y-Y 26.3% 7.5% 5.1% 14.2% % Chg Q-Q - INVESTING CASH FLOWS - Capital Expenditures (454.0) (536.7) (560.0) (595.0) Net Investment 618.1 (65.7) - - ST Investment Purch. - - - - ST Investments Mat. - - - - Acquisitions (863.6) (1,369.1) - - Purchase of intangibles and other non current assets 6.3 (51.4) - - Cash From Investing (693.1) (2,022.9) (560.0) (595.0) FINANCING CASH FLOWS Common Stock Issued 507.0 98.7 - - Excess tax benefit from stock-based compensation 4.7 - - Shares Repurchased (1,485.4) (2,179.6) - - Payment of headquarters facility lease obligation - - - - Long Term Debt 200.2 (200.2) - - Cash From Financing (693.4) (2,276.4) - - Foreign Exch Effects 303.8 (117.5) - - Net Change In Cash 1,558.4 (1,529.2) 2,471.7 2,822.8 Cash at Beginning 2,662.7 4,221.1 2,691.9 5,163.6 Cash at End 4,221.1 2,691.9 5,163.6 7,986.4 Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates. . Net Income (reported) 348.3 1,757.5 1,758.8 1,964.6 Net Income (pro forma) 2,100.4 2,216.5 2,247.9 2,524.7 FASB Adjustment net of Taxes Reported Net. 7,122.5 5, 419. 2 8,345.1 11,467.6 Investments 138.2 133.6 133.6 133.6 Property and equipment, net 1,120.5 1,175.5 1,055.5 970.5 Intangible assets, net 6,853.2