The impact of EVFTA in new generation agreement on vietnam’s seafood export to the EU

ACADEMY OF POLICY AND DEVELOPEMNT INTERNATION SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE GRADUATION THESIS Topic: THE IMPACT OF EVFTA IN-NEW GENERATION AGREEMENT ON VIETNAM’S SEAFOOD EXPORT TO THE EU Supervisor: Ph D Pham Mỹ Hang Phuong Student: Cung Diep Ly Student ID: 5083106513 Class: CLC 8.1 Hanoi, 6/2021 i ACADEMY OF POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE GRADUATION THESIS Topic: THE IMPACT OF EVFTA IN-NEW GENERATION AGREEMENT ON VIETNAM’S SEAFOOD EXPORT TO THE EU Supervisor: Ph D Pham Mỹ Hang Phuong Student: Cung Diep Ly Student ID: 5083106513 Class: CLC 8.1 Hanoi, 6/2021 ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT The process of completing a graduation thesis is the most important stage in every student's life The graduation thesis is the premise to equip us with research skills and valuable knowledge before starting a career First of all, we would like to sincerely thank the teachers and teachers from the International Training Institute who dedicatedly taught and equipped me with the necessary knowledge during my time in the lecture hall I can finish this thesis I would like to thank Dr Pham My Hang Phuong has directly enthusiastically helped, oriented the way of thinking and working in science Those are very valuable suggestions not only in the process of making this thesis but also a stepping stone for me in the process of studying and setting up a career later And lastly, thank you to family, friends, class team, who are always willing to share and help in study and life Hopefully, we will stick together forever Thank you sincerely! iii TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 1 The significance of the study Research purpose and tasks 2.1 Target .2 2.2 Mission .3 Research scope 3.1 Time 3.2 Space The methodology Structure of thesis CHAPTER OVERVIEW OF EU-VIETNAM TRADE ECONOMIC AND TRADE RELATIONS FROM 1995 TO NOW 1.1 Overview of EU-Vietnam economic and trade relations 1.1.1 Overview of EU’s market 1.1.2 Overview of the cooperation relationship between Vietnam and the EU 1.2 Vietnam-EU trade relation from 1995 to now 11 1.2.1 The current situation of Vietnam-EU trade relations in recent years 11 CHAPTER IMPACT OF THE EVFFTA ON SOME GROUP OF VIETNAMESE EXPORTS TO THE EU 17 2.1 Overview of the EVFTA Agreement 17 2.1.1 EVFTA negotiation process 17 iv 2.1.2 The main comitments of EVFTA 1.2 Commitment to opening the goods market of Vietnam 2.1.3 Assessing the overall impact of EVFTA on Vietnam 2.2 Overview of Vietnam's seafood industry 2.2.1 The concept and classification of aquatic products 2.2.2.Factors affecting the export of seafood products 2.2.3 Status of seafood production 2.2.4 Vietnam's seafood export situation 2.2.5 Structure of export products 2.2.6 Export markets and forms of exporting seafood 2.3 General comments about Vietnam's seafood industry 2.3.1 Strength 2.3.2 Weakness 2.4 The impact of EVFTA on Vietnam’s seafood exports to the EU 2.4.1 EVFTA's commitments related to Vietnam's seafood exports to the EU 2.4.2 Forecasting the prospects and the impact of EVFTA on seafood exports to the EU 2.5 Some achievements of Vietnam’ seafood export when EVFTA comes into effect CHAPTER AIMS AND SOLUTIONS TO IMPROVE EFFICIENCY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF EVFTA 3.1 Fisheries industry development goals to 2020, planning with a vision to 2030 v 3.1.1 Fishery development goals in 2020 75 3.1.2 Vision 2030 75 3.2 Solution 76 3.2.1 Group of solutions for authorities related to the fisheries industry 76 3.2.2 Group of solutions for farming, mining, collecting, processing, exporting enterprises and fishermen 78 CONCLUSION 81 REFERENCES 82 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 - The total import and export volumn between Vietnam and EU, period 2015 - first 10 months of 2020 (Unit: million USD) 12 Figure 2.1.: Vietnam's aquaculture and fishing output (thousand tons) 39 Figure 2.2: Summary of seafood export value between Vietnam and EU in the period 2015-2019 40 Figure 2.3: Proportion of seafood exports from Vietnam to the EU in the period 2015 -2019; Unit: % 42 Figure 2.4: Structure of Vietnam's seafood export market to the EU by turnover (2015-2019) 44 Figure 2.5: Vietnam's seafood exports to the EU in 2019 - 2020 .69 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 - Value of exports and imports by continent and country in the first nine months of 2020 and compared to the same period in 2019 .12 Table 1.2 - Top EU markets Vietnam exported over billion USD in 2019 13 Table 1.3 - Export structure of some main products of Vietnam to the EU market in the period of 2017-2019 .15 Table 2.1 - Summary of EU open-door commitments for some important commodity groups of Vietnam 19 Table 2.2: Summary of Vietnam’s market access commitments to some important EU commodity groups 22 Table 2.4: Tariff reduction roadmap for some key products of Vietnam .49 Table 2.5: Vietnam's seafood exports to the EU in November and 11 May 2020 71 Table 2.6: Seafood exports to EU markets in November and 11 May 2020 72 LIST OF BOXES Box 2.1: A number of EVFTA commitments to open service trading and investments from Vietnam to the EU 26 Box 2.2: A number of EVFTA commitments to open Vietnam’s public procurement market 28 vii viii INTRODUCTION The significance of the study The EVFTA Agreement officially took effect on August 1, 2020, this is Vietnam's unremitting efforts after nearly 10 years from the beginning of negotiations to the official signing This is a comprehensive, high-quality agreement that balances the interests of both Vietnam and the EU, and is in line with the provisions of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Besides, with the strong commitment to open the market in the EVFTA Agreement, it will definitely contribute to Vietnam's GDP increase by an average of 2.18-3.25% (in 2019-2023); 4.57-5.30% (2024-2028) and 7.07-7.72% (2029-2033) In terms of exports, the Agreement will promote further expansion of the market for Vietnamese exports According to a study by the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the EVFTA Agreement will help Vietnam's export turnover to the EU increase by about 20% by 2020; 42.7% in 2025 and 44.37% in 2030 compared to no Agreement Especially with the commitment to eliminate import tax up to nearly 100% of the tariff and the trade value that the two sides have agreed, the opportunity to increase exports for Vietnamese products has advantages, including: to fisheries - is one of the key industries of the country and plays a significant role in the Vietnamese economy This is also one of the potential products that Vietnam exports to Europe In the past time, there have been a number of research projects on EVFTA such as: Specializes in EVFTA with Vietnam's trade in the first quarter of 2021 - Textile, Garment and Footwear Industry, the study focuses on assessing the impact of these commodity groups when they are expected to have growth after the EVFTA comes into effect., and actually had a strong impact, recovering Vietnam's exports to the EU market The EVFTA Agreement was started to be implemented in the context of complicated developments of the Covid-19 epidemic, especially the EU is an area heavily affected by the disease Isolation and blockade measures along with economic impacts have reduced consumer demand for non-essential goods, including imported textiles, leather and footwear products In such a context, the EVFTA has helped restore the exports of these two industries in the last months of 2020 and the first months of 2021 There are also some works that go into the overview analysis of the trade situation Vietnam - EU trade, policy information, market information, business information with many reliable data and in-depth assessments for a number of typical export items such as wood and wood industrial products., vegetables and fruits can be mentioned such as the Journal: Vietnam EU Trade in the first quarter of 2021, or the Business Manual "EVFTA and Vietnam's Fruit and Vegetable Industry" which summarizes and explains in detail and fully the EVFTA commitments related to the fruit and vegetable industry, thereby analyzing opportunities and challenges from these commitments and making specific and practical recommendations for enterprises in the Vietnamese fruit and vegetable industry All of the above studies have assessed the impact and forecasted the impact of the EVFTA on a number of groups of Vietnamese exports, however, there has been no follow-up study to analyze the impact of this Agreement on Vietnam's seafood export Therefore, the author decided to go into depth and analyze this topic Research purpose and tasks 2.1 Target The project is implemented to research impact and propose solutions to help Vietnam's seafood export industry make effective use of the commitments of the EVFTA businesses in particular and seafood in particular in a short time (until May-June 2020) will have difficulties in capital because they are related to the project goods, difficulties in raw materials because it is not enough for production - export The Covid-19 epidemic has caused a series of disturbances, disrupting the supply chain of raw materials and the supply of finished products, and both goods and cash flows are in short supply or stagnant It is expected that if the epidemic is controlled, the source of raw materials in the second half of 2020 can only meet a maximum of 50-70% of production demand Many foreign customers asked to delay the payment for several months, even asking for a deep discount on previously received shipments, making seafood businesses unable to rotate capital to pay loans with banks goods and many other payable costs such as wages, raw materials, input materials, taxes Besides, there will be a number of businesses that are eliminated and have to close or go bankrupt or sell to other investors due to high production costs while unable to close export orders The situation of "hanging ponds" occurs on a large scale, making raw materials more scarce in the future and raw material prices will increase Supply chain disruptions lead to increased inventories and continued cold storage shortages For caught seafood, inventories increased and the shortage of cold storage continued to increase 2.5 Some achievements of Vietnam’ seafood export when EVFTA comes into effect In addition, according to statistics from the General Department of Customs, since the Agreement took effect in August 2020, Vietnam's seafood exports to the EU in November 2020 reached 14.3 thousand tons with a value of 64.17 million tons USD, down 35.9% in volume and 41.44% in value compared to October 2020, down 2.94% in volume and down 8.44% in value compared to November 2019, 68 accounting for ,91% in volume and 8.65% in value of seafood exports of the country Figure 2.5: Vietnam's seafood exports to the EU in 2019 - 2020 Source: Calculation from data of the General Department of Customs; December 2020 estimate Vietnam's seafood exports to the EU increased after the EVFTA took effect, but in November and December 2020 decreased slightly compared to the same period in 2019 The main reason was that EU seafood importers had proactively reduce the amount of seafood imported for the holiday because of fear of bad effects from the Covid-19 epidemic Besides, reducing seafood inventories is also a solution to cut costs This has caused Vietnam's seafood exports to the EU to decrease slightly in November and December 2020 In addition, from the Vietnamese side, the amount of caught seafood eligible for export to the EU during this period is not high because of the impact of storms In the first 11 months of 2020, Vietnam's seafood exports to the EU reached 187.92 thousand tons with a value of 870.15 million USD, down 9.2% in volume and 6.4% in value compared to the same period last year in the period of 2019, accounting for 10.2% in volume and 11.32% in value of seafood exports of Vietnam 69 In the first 11 months of 2020, exports of shrimp, tuna and clams to the EU increased compared to the first 11 months of 2019 While exports of other commodity groups such as pangasius, squid, octopus and crabs decreased sharply compared to the same period last year 2019 Vietnam's shrimp exports to the EU in the first 11 months of 2020 accounted for 30.24% in volume and 54.41% in value; tuna accounted for 13.3% in volume and 13.87% in value; pangasius accounted for 27.41% in volume and 13.26% in value; Clams accounted for 15.3% in volume and 5.73% in value; squid accounted for 3.25% in volume and 3.39% in value Export statistics show that when the EVFTA comes into effect, shrimp, clams, tuna and squid are the items that have benefited most from the EVFTA's tax incentives In 2020, the export turnover and value of Vietnam’s seafood to the EU went down by 8.8% and 6.21%, respectively when compared to last year, estimated at 205.9 thousand tons with a value of 947.89 million USD, accounting for 10.18% in volume and 11.29% in value of seafood exports of Vietnam In 2020, EU’s market did not reach more than billion USD in export value However, in 2021, Vietnam's seafood exports have many opportunities to surpass passing the billion USD mark in the EU market, because Vietnamese seafood exporters will exploit more effectively the EVFTA Agreement It is predicted that Vietnam's seafood exports to the EU in the first quarter of 2021 will grow well compared to the same period in 2020, because of the positive impact of the EVFTA Agreement The Covid-19 pandemic in the EU is having complicated developments in many countries, which will make the previously shaped EU seafood consumption and import trends continue to be maintained at least until the end of the quarter I/2021 70 Table 2.5: Vietnam's seafood exports to the EU in November and 11 May 2020 Items Total Shrimps Tuna Yellowtail and Shutchi catfish Clams Freezed fish Squid Surimi Octopus Sentinel crab Mussel Other seafood Crabs Dried-fish Spring rolls Swamp eel Snails Other products Source: Calculation from the data of the General Department of Customs Table 2.6: Seafood exports to EU markets in November Market Total Total of EU Netherlands Germany Spain Italy Belgium Portugal France Lithuania Poland Denmark Rumani Creece Sweden Hungary Cyprus Croatia Laatvia Slovenia Austria Manta Slovakia Iceland Estonia Bungari Czech Source: Calculation from the data of the General Department of Customs 73 The number of enterprises exporting seafood to the EU increased after the EVFTA took effect On the business side, according to statistics from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, before the EVFTA took effect on August 1, 2020, the number of enterprises participating in exporting seafood to the EU was 370 enterprises In which, the number of enterprises participating in exporting seafood to the EU every month is below 200 enterprises/month After the EVFTA took effect, the number of enterprises participating in exporting seafood to the EU has increased to over 200 enterprises/month It is estimated that in 2020, there are 409 Vietnamese enterprises exporting seafood to the EU, most of these enterprises are reputable enterprises with good supply ability However, according to reflections from businesses, the application of commitments in the EVFTA in seafood exports to the EU market still faces many difficulties, especially the implementation of documents and certification regulations is still confusing needy Specifically: - C/O form Eur1: Still confused in its application in the business community and within the EU member states themselves - C/O has been issued for a long time because it is related to the certification certification according to IUU regulations - Application of HS code: Enterprises are confused, not know which code to declare/code declaration under the agreement is not accepted by the importing country 74 CHAPTER AIMS AND SOLUTIONS TO IMPROVE EFFICIENCY TAKING ADVANTAGE OF EVFTA 3.1 Fisheries industry development goals to 2020, planning with a vision to 2030 3.1.1 Fishery development goals in 2020 In the orientation of industrialization and modernization, the fishery industry is expected to be planned in this direction and become a large commodity production industry with a reasonable way of organizing production, specifically as follows: - In the GDP of the Agriculture sector, fishery alone will account for about 33% - On average, the seafood industry must achieve 7-8% per year in the period from 2011-2020, about 11 billion USD in export value - The total fishery production is about 8.2 million tons, with the catch output of only about 35% Specifically, the near-shore fishing output is 800 thousand tons, while the offshore production is 1.4 million tons; Finally, aquaculture production is about 65% - In 2020, seafood export turnover must reach 10 billion USD, up 6.3% over the same period last year; The proportion of exported value-added products reached 50% 3.1.2 Vision 2030 It is expected that by 2020, the seafood industry will follow the direction of modernization, quality growth, and sustainable development In the structure of GDP Agriculture, fisheries account for about 43.5% of GDP The total production of aquatic products is about million tons, of which: The output of fishing and aquaculture is 25% and 75% respectively In the period 2020-2030, 75 the growth rate must reach 6-7%/year, in terms of output reaching 3,179 tons with an export value of about 20 billion USD - Export of aquatic products with added value must reach 60% - The workforce of the fisheries sector must have more than 80% of them being skilled and trained workers - For coastal fishing villages, the proportion of communes built according to the new rural model must account for 70% (of which the rate of law and fisheries villages meeting environmental hygiene standards is 70% and 90 %, respectively) %) - All seafood production facilities must meet national technical regulations on environment 3.2 Solution 3.2.1 Group of solutions for authorities related to the fisheries industry Firstly, in order to increase competitive advantage, it is necessary to focus on improving product quality, specifically, agencies need to: (i) Set a preferential interest rate to give businesses the opportunity to access capital and have preferential policies in the construction of infrastructure as well as the import of machinery or the import of machinery, tools or technology transfer in the aquaculture industry Constantly modernizing production lines, warehouses, building an efficient logistics system from production to final delivery to consumers (ii) EU enterprises all have modern and environmentally friendly production technology, so it is necessary to have incentives for these enterprises to invest in Vietnam (iii) Organize training sessions for businesses to improve their skills and know how to apply advanced technology 76 (iv) Researching and testing new varieties is a must, in order to find products with good quality (v) It is necessary to focus on important certifications to avoid confusion; the government needs to study to integrate between certification systems Secondly, to completely solve the IUU yellow card problem: Currently, Vietnam is being tagged by the EU with a yellow tag, due to illegal, undeclared and unregulated fishing To overcome this problem, it will be faced with the challenge of ensuring a balance between the policy of fisheries development, ensuring that it does not lead to overexploitation of marine resources, as well as ensuring the livelihoods of fishermen when doing so implement measures to strictly manage fishing activities… Especially put an end to Vietnamese fishing vessels illegally fishing in other countries' waters For the application of the "yellow card", the Government and relevant ministries and agencies cooperated with localities to promulgate the 2017 Fisheries Law, complete the documents under the Law in accordance with international practices as well as ensure the development lasting At the same time, instructing the locality to further thoroughly manage the management of IUU fishing In addition, to fix the yellow card, it is necessary to take some of the following measures: (i) Building logistics facilities and seafood processing industrial zones, supporting fishermen to switch to aquaculture and operate in a controlled manner (ii) Supporting fishermen in combination with aquaculture instead of fishing purely This will help reduce dependence on traditional methods, and the burden on natural fisheries resources will be reduced; At the same time, it contributes to creating a sustainable source of raw materials for seafood processing activities 77 (iii) Promulgating and implementing a system of laws and policies on strengthening the effective implementation of regulations in line with European recommendations and management practices in Vietnam (iv) To overcome IUU, Vietnam has acceded to the Agreement on Implementation of the provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea 1982 (UNCLOS) to take timely preventive measures Regarding the yellow card issue, Vietnam may be interested in other agreements such as promoting compliance with international waters and signing anti-IUU agreements with other neighboring countries In addition, connecting domestic businesses to create a prestigious and strong association is still quite difficult To that, the initiative of enterprises is not enough, the authorities also need to play the role of connecting as well as creating conditions for businesses to cooperate and resolve conflicts in the cooperation process 3.2.2 Group of solutions for farming, mining, collecting, processing, exporting enterprises and fishermen (i) Applying advanced technology to machinery factories, developing infrastructure, ensuring technical barriers In addition, periodically implementing the quality inspection and supervision process at sea processing enterprises Currently, the application of VietGAP, GlobalGAP, ASB, BAP models is becoming more and more familiar (ii) To conquer a difficult market like Europe, businesses need to carefully study the market in terms of demand, culture, and consumption habits Some solutions to focus on: 78 Reducing costs is the first thing businesses need to focus on, by closely linking with logistics and product distribution businesses At the same time, looking for new and more effective high-efficiency channels to cut marketing costs It is necessary to create unique products but must meet the tastes and consumption habits of the EU, products must ensure quality but make a difference with other countries Create a "Made in Vietnam" brand to gain prestige and trust from the EU market Building representative offices in handling customer complaints about orders and related issues Product packaging must meet eye-catching and environmental protection criteria In fact, to have a foothold in the EU market, domestic enterprises need to cooperate with EU enterprises to take advantage of available resources Therefore, understanding your partner is essential In addition, it is necessary to participate in fairs, connecting booths to exchange and meet potential partners in the EU (iv) Enterprises need to carefully study the provisions in the EVFTA to make the most of the benefits, namely the rules for export, SPS, TBT, and import of materials from EVFTA member countries If there are any problems that are not clear, it is necessary to promptly respond and propose to the competent authorities for answers (v) Enhance the community spirit between domestic seafood export and processing enterprises Besides cooperating with EU businesses, it is necessary to cooperate with each other to bring goods into the EU Currently, the community of businesses is being alarmed, many cases of unfair competition, no credibility in cooperation 79 To be able to go further, it is necessary to take advantage of the spirit of solidarity, this is also a precious tradition of our country for generations Focus on community interests, common interests above Share experiences in the production process as well as business opportunities, and difficulties encountered Therefore, the coordination will help businesses optimize costs, from the farming process to the final step 80 CONCLUSION The European Union (EU) is currently the most developed regional association in the world, with a common currency, political, economic, and security policies based on common rules for the whole bloc Since its founding, the EU has continuously expanded and developed, playing an increasingly important role in the world economy Two-way trade activities in general and Vietnam's goods exports to the EU in particular are transitioning to a new era, associated with economic transformations of both sides With such a developed and potential market, Vietnam needs to make every effort to work to capture it, one of the important measures to promote and strengthen Vietnam's exports (especially to the Vietnamese market) seafood products) to the EU is the implementation of export promotion measures However, this is a difficult market and there is stiff competition among exporting countries Recently, Vietnam's exports to the EU market have fluctuated Therefore, the State, ministries and sectors need to coordinate with businesses to help improve the competitiveness of Vietnamese goods, especially taking advantage of the advantages from the signed FTA between Vietnam and the EU 81 REFERENCES Assoc.Prof.Dr Nguyen Thanh Cong and Master Pham Hong Nhung (2016), Impact of the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement on Vietnam's economy, Hanoi Institute for Socio-Economic Development Ministry of Industry and Trade (2019), The report summarizes the scientific and technological results of the research and proposes solutions to promote the export of goods to the EU in the context of EVFTA implementation VCCI (2019), Summary of Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) Master Pham Thi Da, Opportunities and challenges for Vietnam's trade in goods when the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement comes into effect, Faculty of Economics and Law, University of Commerce 82 ...ACADEMY OF POLICY AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE GRADUATION THESIS Topic: THE IMPACT OF EVFTA IN- NEW GENERATION AGREEMENT ON VIETNAM’S SEAFOOD EXPORT TO THE EU Supervisor:... on Vietnam’s seafood exports to the EU 2.4.1 EVFTA' s commitments related to Vietnam's seafood exports to the EU 2.4.2 Forecasting the prospects and the impact of EVFTA on seafood exports to. .. recommendations and solutions to promote Vietnam's seafood industry in the context of joining EVFTA Research scope 3.1 Time Actual data of the seafood industry for analysis related to the impact of the EVFTA