Assessment of vietnamese fisheries sector prospect and fisheries enterprises in the context of EVFTA free trade agreements

Introduction Vietnam has long been a leading seafood producer and exporter in the region, along with Indonesia and Thailand Seafood exports have become one of the important sectors of the economy Fishery is one of the production and business industries, an economic activity in the overall socio-economic of mankind Fishery plays an important role in providing food for mankind, not only it is also an economic industry that creates employment opportunities for many workers, especially in rural and coastal areas The demand for fisheries for mankind is increasing while the resources of these resources are limited and have been exploited to the ceiling, so the aquaculture industry has developed to compensate for these shortages In recent years, when the EVFTA free trade agreements have been signed, the potential for Vietnam's seafood industry has grown, so I decided to choose the topic: "Assessment of Vietnamese Fisheries sector Prospect and Fisheries enterprises in the context of EVFTA free trade agreements.” The content of this report is mainly focus on analyzing Vietnamese Fisheries sector and performance of enterprises over the years, combine with the fluctuation of macroeconomic and industry Objectives of the study and research question  Research Question: What are the potentials of Vietnam's seafood industry in the context of EVFTA and how to develop with that potentials?  General Objective: Using Literature Review and Data analysis to find out the prospects of the seafood sector and enterprises  Specific Objective: Analyzing the advantages and disadvantages that EVFTA free trade agreements bring to fisheries Ways for businesses to take full advantage of and overcome those disadvantages Using suitable valuation methods to determine the potential of businesses in the industry, especially leading enterprises such as Vinh Hoan Corporation (VHC), Minh Phu Seafood Corporation (MPC) and Sao Ta Food Joint Stock Company (FMC) Relying on the valuation outcome and then recommending for investors whether they should invest in this stock or not and for enterprises what to in this context to improve business activities and increase seafood exports Research Object  Vietnamese Fisheries sector Research Scope  Time limited: 2016-2020  Venue limited: Vietnam Research Methods:  Literature Review  Top-down and Bottom-up approach method  Evaluation method  Comparative method  Financial statement analysis method Research Structure My graduation thesis will be separated into chapters: Chapter 1: Theoretical basis Chapter 2: Vietnamese Fisheries Analysis Chapter 3: Corporations in Vietnam Fisheries industry Chapter 4: Recommendations for investors and enterprises CHAPTER Theoretical basis 1.1 Definition 1.1.1 Sector A sector is an area of the economy in which businesses share the same or a related product or service It can also be thought of as an industry or market that shares common operating characteristics Dividing an economy into different sectors allows for more in-depth analysis of the economy as a whole Almost all economies are comprised of four, high-level sectors, which, in turn, are each made up of smaller sectors Of the large sectors within an economy, the first group is called the primary sector and involves companies that participate in the extraction and harvesting of natural products from the earth, such as agriculture, mining and forestry The secondary sector consists of processing, manufacturing and construction companies The tertiary sector is comprised of companies that provide services, such as retailers, entertainment firms and financial organizations The quaternary sector includes companies in the intellectual pursuits, such as educational businesses Investors use sectors to place stocks and other investments into categories such as technology, healthcare, energy, utilities and telecommunications Each sector has unique characteristics and a different risk profile that attracts a specific type of investor As a result, it is common for analysts and other investment professionals to specialize in certain sectors For example, at large research firms, analysts may cover just one sector, such as pharmaceutical companies or technology stocks Additionally, investment funds often specialize in a particular economic sector, a practice known as sector investing For example, the oil and gas sector is a large industry that attracts specialized investment funds Momentum in these sectors is measured using The Stochastic Oscillator and the Stochastic Momentum Index How Investors View Sectors: + Almost all serious investors look at sector performance at least weekly For example, many investors conducted sector analysis on Friday, June 1, 2018, for the investment week of May 29, 2018, to June As of that Friday, shares of companies in the coal industry group were the top performers with a return of 10.25%, while automobiles came in second with growth of 6.12% The automobile industry received a boost from shares of General Motors (GM) that rose on news that Softbank Vision Fund planned to invest $2 billion in the automaker's self-driving cars The next two highest performing industry groups were the Internet and real estate holdings and developers, with gains of 4.51% and 3.56%, respectively + Stocks tend to follow the performance of their respective sector, in addition to the overall stock market Keeping abreast of the market can make it easier to determine when a stock that belongs to a particular sector has bottomed out (investopedia 2019) 1.1.2 Fisheries sector Fisheries is a general term for resources and products brought to people from the water environment and exploited, cultivated and used as food, raw materials or sold on the market by humans Among aquatic products, the most common activities are fishing, farming and fishing Some species are herring, cod, anchovies, tuna, halibut, mullet, shrimp, salmon, oysters and scallops with high productivity In particular, the fisheries sector is involved in wild or farmed fishing through fish farming Aquaculture has directly or indirectly impacted the lives of over 500 million people in developing countries dependent on fisheries and aquaculture According to FAO, aquaculture is the cultivation of aquatic organisms in fresh and brackish/saltwater environments, including the application of techniques in farming processes to improve productivity of individuals or collectives In particular, aquatic resources are biological resources in natural waters with economic and scientific value to develop fisheries, preserve and develop aquatic resources Nearly 90% of the world's seafood industry is extracted from the sea and oceans, compared to the output obtained from inland waters Fishery activities mean the exploitation, farming and transportation of exploited aquatic products; preserving, processing, buying, selling, exporting and importing aquatic products; services in fisheries activities, investigation, protection and development of aquatic resources Fishing is the exploitation of aquatic resources on the sea, rivers, lakes, lagoons, and other natural waters Overfishing, including overfishing, reducing fish stocks and employment in many parts of the world Land for aquaculture is land with inland water bodies, including ponds, lakes, lagoons, lagoons, rivers, canals, canals and ditches; land with coastal water surface; alluvial and coastal alluvial land; sandy beaches and coastal dunes; land used for farm economy; nonagricultural land with water surface allocated or leased for aquaculture Most of the fisheries are wildlife, but aquaculture is on the rise Cultivation can be done in coastal areas, such as with oyster farms, but now it is often practiced in inland waters, in lakes, ponds, tanks and other forms Fisheries Classification: The distribution of aquatic species is based on the feeding characteristics and habitat and climate + Group of fish (fish): As farm animals with distinct fish characteristics, they can be freshwater fish or brackish water fish For example: Pangasius, Goby, Eel + Crustaceans: The most common is the ten-legged crustacean group, of which shrimp and crabs are important cultured species For example: Giant freshwater shrimp, black tiger shrimp, white shrimp, earth shrimp, sea crabs + Molluscs: Consists of species of lime shells, most of which are bivalve and most live in the sea (clams, cockles, oysters, snails) and a few live in fresh water (mussels) , pearl oyster) + Seaweeds: are low-cost, unicellular, multicellular plant species, small-sized species, but also large species such as Chlorella, Spirulina, Chaetoceros, Sargassium (Alginate), Gracillaria + Reptilies and Amphibians: Reptiles are amniotic four-legged animals (for example, crocodiles) Amphibians are species that can live both on land and in water (for example, frogs) , snakes) raised for meat, skin used for food or in fine arts such as tortoise (fins), frogs (skin and meat), crocodile (skin) (wikipedia 2019) In short, Fisheries is a "general term for resources", products brought to people from the water environment and exploited, cultivated and used as food and raw materials by humans or for sale on the market Among aquatic products, the most common activities are fishing, farming and fishing 1.1.4 Definition of prospect A prospect is a potential or untapped strengths, unknown The term prospect can be used on both an individual and organizational level A company can be on your list of prospects, but that doesn’t mean you want to sell to every employee at that organization Only certain contacts at that company who fit your specific target qualifications are considered true sales prospects Regarding sector level, an industry is considered as potential when the country has enough factors to develop that industry, and at the same time, that industry in the future has many favorable conditions to become stronger and bring more benefits, more profitable for the country 1.1.5 EVFTA free trade agreements 1.1.5.1 Definition of free trade agreement A free trade agreement (FTA, short for Free Trade Agreement) is a trade agreement between two or more countries Accordingly, countries will follow the roadmap of reducing and eliminating tariff barriers as well as non-tariff barriers towards the establishment of a free trade area According to statistics of the World Trade Organization, there are more than 200 free trade agreements in force Free trade agreements can be made between two individual countries or can be reached between a trade bloc and a country 1.1.5.2 EVFTA free trade agreements EVFTA is a free trade agreement between Vietnam and the European Union (EU) signed on June 30, 2019, marking a historic milestone for the trade relations between Vietnam and the European Union EVFTA is a comprehensive new generation agreement and is the first EU FTA with a middle-income country like Vietnam Vietnamese seafood exporters are having high expectations on the EU's free trade agreement that will help boost seafood export orders to the region and help Vietnam's seafood products have the strength more competitive The paper focuses on the opportunities and challenges for Vietnamese seafood enterprises, based on which proposed a number of recommended solutions to contribute to promoting the operation of these businesses - Some key contents of the EVFTA Agreement Trade in goods + For Vietnamese exports, as soon as the Agreement comes into effect, the EU will eliminate import duties on about 85.6% of tariff lines, equivalent to 70.3% of Vietnam's exports to the EU After 07 years from the date of entry into force of the Agreement, the EU will eliminate import duties on 99.2% of tariff lines, equivalent to 99.7% of Vietnam's exports For the remaining 0.3% of exports, the EU commits to giving Vietnam a tariff quota with an import duty of 0% For EU exports, Vietnam committed to eliminate tariffs as soon as the Agreement comes into effect with 48.5% of tariff lines (accounting for 64.5% of import turnover) Then, after years, 91.8% of tariff lines equivalent to 97.1% of EU exports were removed from Vietnam by import taxes After 10 years, the tariff elimination rate is about 98.3% of the tariff lines (accounting for 99.8% of import turnover) For the remaining 1.7% of EU tariff lines, we apply the roadmap to eliminate import duties longer than 10 years or apply tariff quotas in accordance with WTO commitments + Trade in services and investment Vietnam's and EU's commitment to trade in investment services aims to create an open and favorable investment environment for businesses of the two sides Vietnam's commitments go beyond the commitments in the WTO The EU commitment is higher than the WTO commitment and is equivalent to the highest EU commitment under the recent EU FTAs The sectors that Vietnam committed to facilitate EU investors include a number of specialized services, financial services, telecommunications services, transport services, distribution services The two sides also made commitments on national treatment in the field of investment, and discussed the content of dispute resolution between investors and the state + Government Procurement Vietnam and the EU have agreed on the contents similar to the Government's Procurement Agreement (GPA) of the WTO With some obligations such as online bidding, setting up an electronic portal to post bidding information, etc., Vietnam has a roadmap to perform The EU also pledges to provide technical assistance to Vietnam to fulfill these obligations + Intellectual Property Commitments on intellectual property include commitments on copyright, inventions, pharmaceuticals and inventions, geographical commitments indications, etc related to Basically, Vietnam's commitments on intellectual property are in compliance with current law provisions + State-owned enterprises (SOEs) Provisions of SOEs in EVFTA Agreement to create an environment of fair competition between economic sectors The commitment also 10 shrimp customers Hundreds of hectares of farmers cooperating to plant agricultural products for export processing In its development strategy, FMC will double shrimp farming area by 2025, taking advantage of every opportunity from free trade agreements to expand business scale, increase operational efficiency and be in Top largest shrimp processors in Vietnam FMC’s business results: (Source: CafeF) 4000 3500 3000 2500 Revenue 2000 Profit after tax 1500 1000 500 2016 2017 2018 2019 Figure Business results of FMC In general, business results of FMC has the same pattern as MPC In particular, from 2016 to 2019, revenue of FMC underwent a significant growth, from 2252 VND billion to 3709 VND billion, but the figures for profit after tax were too small, at just 73.8 VND billion and 229.75 VND billion in 2016 and 2019 respectively This shows that the net income rate is very low However, the data is not very bad Compared with the leading company, MPC, FMC still has a lot of potential to improve when it 55 has not yet achieved economies of scale and is subject to 4.58% antidumping tax, which makes the margin FMC's gross profit is much lower than MPC 3.3.2 Advantages and disadvantages - Advantages: + Right strategy: In anticipation of the difficult developments of the shrimp industry this year, Sao Ta restricts cheap contracts in the US, focusing more on Japan - the largest market in the past 20 years This market feature requires meticulous products This is the advantage of Sao Ta thanks to the high level of processing consumed in many big restaurants, prestigious brands and many deep processing products suitable to the tastes of consumers Sao Ta determines that valueadded goods are an indispensable trend, in which powdered shrimp (sold in Japan and the US) and boiled shrimp have the best growth prospects + The "compass" from The PAN Group: Not only support in terms of orientation, business management, PAN Group has recently continued to pour more capital into Sao Ta to invest in business development Sao Ta has successfully issued more than million shares to increase its charter capital to VND 490 billion The entire amount of more than VND 200 billion was allocated to buying raw materials and expanding shrimp farming area - Disadvantages: + FMC's aquaculture and fishing system is located in Soc Trang Province, or is at risk of being saline in the dry season, adversely affecting production + FMC's main market is the European market, but this is a fastidious market that requires high quality and safety of seafood 56 + Fierce competition with shrimp companies in the region and the world 3.3.3 Prospect of FMC - FMC's main market in 2020 is the EU and has in fact delivered successfully, helping the company recognize the most satisfactory results since its establishment - As a shrimp industry enterprise, FMC is expecting EVFTA to make a "leap" for Vietnamese shrimp products to EU market The import tax of raw shrimp (fresh, frozen, chilled) to the EU will be reduced from the basic tariff of 12-20% to 0% right after the Agreement comes into effect - The company set a target of reaching US $200 million in sales by 2020 and doubling the area of shrimp farming by 2025 to take advantage of every opportunity from free trade agreements to expand its business and to be a manufacturer 2nd largest shrimp variable in Vietnam 3.3.4 Financial indicators EPS (Thousand VND) P/E ROE (%) ROA(%) Table Recent financial data of FMC’s Stock 57 From 2016 to 2019, there were a sharp growth in EPS of FMC, from 2.24 to just 5.47 This indicates that FMC's business activities is getting better and better P/E ratio of FMC is not very big but this is not a bad sign This is because the business operations are more efficient, so earnings per share (EPS) is getting greater, therefore the P/E ratio is getting lower On the contrary with MPC, FMC has higher ROA and ROE ratios over the years To be more detail, the ROE and ROA ratios of FMC were 24.48% and 15.11% respectively in 2019 These were also higher than the figures for domestic and regional peers  Worth investment 3.4 Comparison of some Fisheries enterprises in 2019 - Business results comparison: (Source: Companies’ financial statements) VHC MPC FMC Table Business results comparison of VHC, MPC and FMC in 2019 58 Growth rate Profitability Valuation index Financial health Table Comparision of VHC, MPC and FMC stocks in 2019 In general, the business situation of all three businesses is quite stable as of 2019 However, VHC is the most worthy company to invest because the financial indicators are very promising In particular, VHC's profit after tax ratio is the largest at 15%, followed by FMC with 6% the figure for MPC is the smallest at just 3% despite extremely high net sales VASEP estimates that the export turnover of Vietnamese shrimp and pangasius businesses in Quarter I / 2020 will decrease by 30-50% Up to the present time, when the situation of COVID-19 epidemic in China was controlled, the epidemic in the markets of the US and EU exploded strongly Therefore, although the demand in the Chinese market has not been able to recover quickly and completely, there are signs of warming While the situation continues to be negative in other export markets, seafood businesses continue to face many difficulties 59 - Exports market structure comparision: (Source:FPTS) 24% 11% 21% Figure MPC’s Exports market structure in 2019 15% 6% USA China 11% Others 68% Figure MPC’s Exports market structure in 2019 60 19% 42% 13% 26% Figure 10 FMC’s Exports market structure in 2019 The largest export market of MPC and VHC is the USA, while the largest export market of FMC is the EU 61 CHAPTER Recommendations for investors and enterprises 4.1 Future scenario of Fisheries industry Vietnam's seafood industry is at an advanced stage in its cycle In terms of development process: Thanks to favorable natural conditions, Vietnam's seafood industry has existed and had a long development history In terms of revenue: The income of fishery enterprises in recent years has decreased The main reason is due to the increase in input material prices, adversely affecting the profit margin of companies when the production cost ratio is very high, accounting for 70% -80% Especially in the absence of domestic supply, businesses have to import input materials, pushing up costs In terms of growth: the fishery industry has a growth rate close to the growth rate of the economy According to the development plan of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the industry's total export turnover is expected to increase by an average of 6% -7% a year from 2011 to 2020 This growth is similar to the growth rate of Vietnam's economy in the same period as forecasted by BMI organization in 2019 In terms of product development: The ability to expand aquaculture areas and introduce new products is limited due to capital constraints, climatic conditions and especially strict market regulation barriers about food safety 62 (Source: GSO, Business Monitor 2018) Figure 11 Fisheries sector’s revenue versus GDP It is expected that from 2020 to 2030, in the context of EVFTA free trade agreement, Vietnam's seafood export will rocket - The EU market: + The EU is the largest shrimp consumer market in the world and also the traditional market of Vietnamese pangasius However, the European public debt crisis is currently reducing consumer spending in European countries + Recently, VASEP signed a memorandum of understanding with the port of Zeebrugge (Belgium) to establish a Vietnam seafood distribution center in order to increase the stability of pangasius export to this market + Advantage: EU is a big consumer market Demand for seafood products in general and shrimp in particular in the EU market is quite 63 high when more than 60% of seafood products consumed in the EU are imported products + Difficulties: Regulations and standards on the quality of fishery products are increasingly stricter Accompanying with EVFTA is the Vietnam - EU Investment Protection Agreement (EVIPA), with a more open and open market, European businesses will increase investment in Vietnam, creating favorable conditions for businesses Vietnam has access to many sources of imported goods and materials as well as high-quality and stable machines, equipment, technologies and technologies from the EU with reasonable prices, thereby improving productivity and improve the quality of our exported products This is an important driving force for ministries, localities and the Vietnamese business community to promote trade promotion activities for products exported to the EU, especially key export products such as seafood , fruit and vegetables, processed agricultural products, electronics and electronic components, textiles and footwear… In addition, EU countries have high and relatively equal levels of socio-economic development, have shaped a common market with developed trade infrastructure, trade promotion events taking place in EU countries are always leading in scale, attracting a large number of customers from other continents Therefore, the organization or participation in trade promotion activities in EU countries is considered to be very convenient and increase the effectiveness when done in a country but can thereby easily access to Import partners and consumers are not only in EU member states but also in many other market areas around the world 64 According to the Department of Trade Promotion, EU is a common market but each member market has different characteristics, needs, import regulations and consumer preferences In the context that Vietnamese enterprises are mainly small and medium-sized, production scale is limited, the competitiveness of products is still in need of improvement, so there is an appropriate market approach With traditional markets such as Germany, France, Spain considered as the gateway market to help spread to other countries in the EU, businesses need to continue exploiting the geographical area, making the most of benefits However, EVFTA brings about to promote its competitive advantage In addition to the above advantages, the promotion of trade into the EU market also faces a number of difficulties because the EU is a large but fastidious market, requiring strict and strict requirements on quality standards, safety and hygiene food, labeling, environment while not all businesses meet the requirements The next difficulty for Vietnamese enterprises when conducting trade promotion activities in the EU market is the language barrier as well as limited understanding of EU market regulations 4.2 Recommendations for investors - For the third quarter of 2020: As of March 27, 2020, the seafood industry's P/E has dropped to its lowest level between 2017 and 3.6x The decrease has partly reflected the difficulties that Vietnam's seafood export industry has faced when the outbreak of COVID-19 globally However, with the above analysis, the situation of COVID-19 disease continues to be extremely complicated in countries around the world and the extent of damage of Vietnam's fisheries sector affected by COVID- 19 is very difficult to 65 forecast, moreover, the volatility of the stock market in the current period is quite high  Therefore, I recommend investors NOT to invest in stocks of fisheries enterprises in this period - For long-term investment: The fisheries sector is a promising sector for investment, especially in the context of EVFTA free trade agreements: + Vinh Hoan Corporation (VHC) really worths investment with very good business operations, high earnings per share and high net profit rate In addition, VHC is assessed to have advantages thanks to the US market recovering import volume in 2020 + Sao Ta Food Joint Stock company (FMC) also worth investment Because, FMC’s financial datas are very potential Moreover, Europe is the largest customer of Vietnamese shrimp exporters EVFTA will make a "jump" for Vietnamese shrimp products to EU market + Minh Phu Seafood Corporation (MPC) on the other hand, is very risky to invest because unstable business results, high debt and low earnings per share 4.3 Recommendations for enterprises - In order to promote trade effectively and bring good opportunities for businesses in addition to the state support, businesses, especially small and medium enterprises, need to actively research information to get the positive preparation The preparation should be carried out comprehensively from studying opportunities and challenges of the EU market to solutions such as improving quality, product design; promote competitive advantages, increase performance, develop brands - Vietnamese enterprises need to invest in developing products to ensure compliance with EU standards and regulations on imported goods as 66 well as carefully preparing export plans for each target commodity and market; focus on improving the quality of goods, applying advanced quality standards systems to meet the increasingly stringent technical requirements of import markets - Fisheries company also need to improve their activeness in coordinating with trade promotion organizations to formulate plans and participate in real, feasible and effective trade promotion activities At the same time, businesses are proactive, investing funds for domestic and foreign trade promotion, improving the capacity of human resources to professionalize execution capacity and maximize the effectiveness of promotion activities trade into the EU market - Along with improving quality, enterprises must improve productivity to reduce costs, diversify models and packaging to suit consumers' tastes 67 ... with the preceding period to assess the increase or decrease in the business performance of the business and from there to comment on the trend of financial changes of the business  Comparing... great influence on the fisheries sector, in the field of aquaculture reflected in the determination of the crop structure, the ability of intensive farming and rotation of each 36 locality and. .. share In general, in the difficult context of the fishery industry in recent years and lasting in the first months of 2016, the business results of Vinh Hoan are really impressive First of all, the