Tiến trình brexit nguyên nhân diễn biến và hệ quả

BỘ GIÁO DỤC V TRƢỜ G I HỌC SƢ H T THÀNH PHỐ HỒ CHÍ MINH Nguyễn Thị Cẩm Tú TIẾN TRÌNH BREXIT: NGUYÊN NHÂN, DIỄN BIẾN VÀ HỆ QUẢ LUẬ VĂ TH C SĨ LỊCH SỬ THẾ GIỚI Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh - 2020 BỘ GIÁO DỤC V TRƢỜ G I HỌC SƢ H T THÀNH PHỐ HỒ CHÍ MINH Nguyễn Thị Cẩm Tú TIẾN TRÌNH BREXIT: NGUN NHÂN, DIỄN BIẾN VÀ HỆ QUẢ Chuyên ngành: Lịch sử giới Mã số: 8229011 LUẬ VĂ TH C SĨ LỊCH SỬ THẾ GIỚI GƢỜI HƢỚNG DẪN KHOA HỌC: TS LÊ PHỤNG HỒNG Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh - 2020 LỜI CA A Tôi xin cam đoan luận văn cơng trình nghiên cứu riêng tơi Các kiện, số liệu, tài liệu trích dẫn kết nghiên cứu Luận văn trung thực, đảm bảo tính khách quan khoa học nghiêm túc Tác giả luận văn Nguyễn Thị Cẩm Tú LỜI CẢM Ơ Để hồn thành Luận văn tơi xin gửi lời cảm ơn chân thành đến: Quý Thầy Cô Khoa Lịch sử, Phòng Sau đại học Trường đại học Sư phạm Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh Trong q trình học tập, nhận từ quý Thầy Cô hướng dẫn tận tình nghiên cứu khoa học Lịch sử, rèn luyện nghiệp vụ sư phạm… Thầy Lê Phụng Hoàng, người hướng dẫn khoa học Trong trình thực Luận văn tốt nghiệp, nhận từ Thầy hướng dẫn tận tình, cẩn trọng tinh thần nghiêm túc, trung thực nghiên cứu khoa học Gia đình, người động viên, giúp đỡ tạo điều kiện tốt để tơi theo đuổi đường học vấn Gửi lời cảm ơn đến bạn Khóa 29 tơi học tập trao đổi đơn thúc hồn thành tốt nội dung học trường trình làm Luận văn giúp đỡ, tạo thêm động lực để tơi hồn thành tốt hạn DANH MỤC CÁC TỪ VIẾT TẮT STT CHỮ VIẾT TẮT CHỮ VIẾT ẦY Ủ BBC British Broadcasting Corporation CAP Common Agricultural Policy CJEU Court of Justice of the European Union EC European Community ECSC European Coal and Steel Community EEA European Economic Area EEC European Economic Community EFTA European Free Trade Association ERM European Exchange Rate Mechanism 10 EU European Union 11 GDP Gross domestic product 12 IMF International Monetary Fund 13 MEP Member of the European Parliament 14 MP Member of Parliament 15 NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization 16 UK United Kingdom 17 UKIP UK Independence Party 18 US United States of America 19 WTO World Trade Organization MỤC LỤC Trang phụ bìa Lời cam đoan Lời cảm ơn Danh mục từ viết tắt Mục lục Danh mục bảng Danh mục hình MỞ ẦU Chƣơng GUYÊ HÂ DẪ ẾN BREXIT 1.1 Nguyên nhân sâu xa 1.1.1 Sự thành lập Liên hiệp châu Âu (EU) 1.1.2 Quá trình Vương quốc Anh gia nhập EU 11 1.1.3 Những mâu thuẫn ban đầu mối quan hệ Vương quốc Anh với EU 15 1.2 Nguyên nhân trực tiếp 20 1.2.1 Về vấn đề kinh tế 20 1.2.2 Vấn đề người nhập cư 28 1.2.3 Đảng độc lập Anh 32 Chƣơng QUÁ TRÌNH CỦA BREXIT 40 2.1 Trưng cầu dân ý 40 2.1.1 Sự chuẩn bị cho trưng cầu dân ý 40 2.1.2 Trưng cầu dân ý tháng năm 2016 48 2.2 Các giai đoạn đàm phán 56 2.2.1 Giai đoạn 57 2.2.2 Giai đoạn 60 2.2.3 Giai đoạn 63 2.3 Những vấn đề lớn nội dung đàm phán 72 2.3.1 Ngân sách 72 2.3.2 Bắc Ireland 75 2.3.3 Quyền công dân 78 2.3.4 Brexit cứng 80 Chƣơng HỆ QUẢ BA ẦU CỦA BREXIT 85 3.1 Đối với Vương quốc Anh 85 3.1.1 Về mặt trị 85 3.1.2 Về kinh tế 96 3.1.3 Vấn đề nhập cư 103 3.2 Đối với Liên hiệp Châu Âu 109 3.2.1 Tổn thất EU 109 3.2.2 Ảnh hưởng nước thành viên 111 3.2.3 Những thay đổi EU 114 KẾT LUẬN 120 TÀI LIỆU THAM KHẢO 123 PHỤ LỤC DANH MỤC CÁC BẢNG Bảng 1.1 Đóng góp Anh cho ngân sách EU 21 Bảng 2.1 Danh sách báo cáo Đánh giá Cân Năng lực 46 Bảng 2.2 Thương mại Vương quốc Anh với đối tác thương mại chính, 2011 2013 - 2015 64 DANH MỤC CÁC HÌNH Hình 2.1 Di cư rịng đến Vương quốc Anh theo quốc tịch 50 Hình 2.2 Phiếu trung cầu dân ý 2016 53 Hình 2.3 Kết trưng cầu dân ý 54 Hình 2.4 Bậc thang dẫn đến Brexit Barnier 70 Hình 2.5 Những ước tính tác động lâu dài việc rời EU 71 Hình 2.6 Các khoản đóng góp cho ngân sách EU 74 Hình 3.1 Liên kết giao dịch nước thành viên EU Vương quốc Anh 2016 112 MỞ ẦU Lí chọn đề tài Brexit thuật ngữ tạo thành từ hai từ: BRITAIN (Liên Hiệp Vương Quốc Anh) EXIT (thoát khỏi, thoát ra), ám cho việc Vương Quốc Anh rời khỏi khối Liên Hiệp Châu Âu (EU – Europe Union) sau gần bốn thập niên chung sống Đây kiện mang tầm ảnh hưởng đến lịch sử xứ sương mù nói riêng phạm vi tồn giới nói chung Brexit chủ đề quan trọng gây tranh cãi trị đại khơng riêng Vương quốc Anh mà mở rộng giới Bao trùm lên Brexit loạt câu hỏi tranh luận sắc, xã hội, kinh tế trị, thương mại, an ninh, vị quốc tế, hiến pháp, hệ thống pháp luật, chủ quyền, thống nhất, giá trị Vương quốc Anh Trong câu hỏi tranh luận chủ đề diễn trước bỏ phiếu để rời EU, tranh luận kết trưng cầu dân ý đưa người dân Anh đến với theo cách biến Brexit thành bước ngoặt hoi làm thay đổi sâu sắc nước Anh Tuy nhiên, Brexit kiện hay q trình hồn tồn Vương quốc Anh Đó loạt trình tranh luận chồng chéo diễn liên quan đến nhiều chủ thể Anh, nước EU lại, phần lại châu Âu tồn giới Chính chất phức tạp phạm vi rộng khiến Brexit trở thành vấn đề trị quan trọng khó xác định Tính đến thời điểm việc nghiên cứu vấn đề liên quan đến Brexit đề tài nóng tồn giới, có nhiều cơng trình nghiên cứu, tác giả, tác phẩm sách, báo, luận án, luận văn, đề tài nghiên cứu khoa học, tìm hiểu vấn đề Brexit, Liên hiệp châu Âu Tuy nhiên Việt Nam có lẽ vấn đề mang tính thời cịn mẻ nên hạn chế cơng trình nghiên cứu sách, luận án luận văn hay cơng trình nghiên cứu khoa học Người đọc muốn tìm hiểu vấn đề chủ yếu thông qua trang báo mạng hay báo khoa học Nhưng thấy hầu hết tác giả, tác phẩm thường nghiên cứu nhiều ảnh hưởng Vấn đề Brexit đến Việt Nam, đến tình hình giới, mối quan hệ 132 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/19/brexit-talks-david-davismichel-barnier-brussels-uk-eu The Guardian (Apr, 2013) Margaret Thatcher: a life in quotes Retrieved December 20, 2018, from https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/apr/08/margaret-thatcher-quotes Thomas Poole 2016 The constitution and foreign affairs Retrieved December 29, 2019, from http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/68488/1/The_constitution_and_foreign_affairs_LSERO pdf UK Parliament 2016 Referendums held in the UK Retrieved July 29, 2019, from https://www.parliament.uk/get-involved/vote-in-generalelections/referendums-held-in-the-uk/ Valentino Larcinese (2012) Crime and Punishment the British way: Accountability Channels Following the MPs’ Expenses Scandal Retrieved August 20, 2020, from https://www.lse.ac.uk/government/Assets/Documents/pdf/research- groups/pspe/working-papers/PSPE-WP9-12.pdf Vnexpress (Thứ sáu, 24/6/2016) Vì người Anh chia tay EU Truy cập ngày 28 tháng 09 năm 2020 từ trang: https://vnexpress.net/vi-sao-nguoi-anhnang-nac-chia-tay-eu-3425410.html Watt, N., & Traynor, I (2015, June 26) Cameron set to go to Referendum without EU ratifying Treaty Changes Guardian Retrieved March 28, 2018, from https:// www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jun/25/david-cameron-set-to-goto-referendum-without-eu-ratifying-treaty-changes PL PHỤ LỤC Phụ lục Bảng: Các mốc thời gian quan trọng EU Vƣơng Quốc Anh (1946 – 2017) Thời gian 19/09/1946 Sự kiện In a speech in Zurich, Sir Winston Churchill calls for a United States of Europe 1949 The Council of Europe is founded by the Treaty of London 4/4/1951 The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is Founded 18/04/1951 Treaty of Paris is signed establishing the European Coal and Steel Community between France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg 3/09/1953 European Convention on Human Rights enters into force The European Court of Human Rights is established in 1959 25 March 1957 The Treaty of Rome is signed establishing the European Economic Community and the European Atomic Energy Community January 1960 The European Free Trade Association is formed with Austria, Denmark, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland and the UK 15 January 1963 Britain's first application (submitted on August 1961 by the Conservative government of Harold Macmillan) to join the EEC is blocked by President de Gaulle 27 November Britain's second application, submitted by the Labour 1967 government of Harold Wilson, to join is again blocked by President de Gaulle July 1968 EEC members agree a customs union, removing all import duties between them 27 October 1970 "European Political Cooperation' is launched as the foreign ministers of the six founding members, meeting in Luxembourg adopt the Davignon Report, which laid the PL foundations for coordinating the foreign policies of the EEC member states January 1973 Britain joins the EEC Denmark and Ireland also join Norway decides not to following a referendum June 1975 Labour Prime Minister Harold Wilson secures a renegotiated UK- EEC relationship and Britain votes 67 per cent to 33 per cent to remain in the EEC July 1975 The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) is established 1977 Customs duties between the nine EC members are completely abolished 13 March 1979 The European Monetary System (EMS) and Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) are established May 1979 Conservatives win general election, Margaret Thatcher becomes prime minister 1979 First direct elections to the European Parliament January 1981 Greece joins the EEC 27 June 1984 EEC agrees to a UK rebate 14 June 1985 Schengen Treaty is signed, abolishing borders between members January 1986 17/28 February The Single European Act is signed, in Luxembourg and the 1986 20 Spain and Portugal join the EEC Hague September Margaret Thatcher delivers her Bruges speech 1988 1990 Fall of the Berlin Wall, Germany is reunified, with East Germany becoming a part of the EEC October 1990 Britain joins the ERM 1991 - 2001 Wars are fought in the former Yugoslavia The EU, NATO, PL OSCE and others are involved throughout 17 September Britain and Italy forced out of the ERM 1992 February 1992 Treaty of Maastricht is signed, creating the EU January 1995 Austria, Sweden and Finland join the EU May 1997 Labour win the general election Tony Blair appointed prime minister October 1997 Treaty of Amsterdam signed October 2000 Charter of Fundamental Rights is established 26 February 2001 Nice Treaty signed Euro replaces currencies in 12 member states, having been launched as a currency in 1999 January 2002 Convention on the Future of Europe prepares a draft constitutional treaty 2003 Convention on the Future of Europe prepares a draft constitutional treaty 31 March 2003 EU deploys first troops under the European Security and Defence Policy May 2004 10 new member states join the EU: Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia 2005 Constitutional treaty is abandoned after rejection in referendums in France and the Netherlands January 2007 13 Romania and Bulgaria join the EU December Lisbon Treaty signed and is ratified by 2009 2007 2007-2008 Global financial crisis 2009 A crisis begins in the Eurozone December 2011 David Cameron vetoes a fiscal compact, causing the rest of the EU to establish it via a separate treaty PL July 2013 Croatia joins the EU 23 January 2013 David Cameron delivers his Bloomberg speech in which he commits the Conservative Party to an in/out referendum, which is later included in the party's 2015 general election manifesto 2015 The EU faces a migration crisis May 2015 The Conservative Party under the leadership of David Cameron majority in the general election 25 June 2015 David Cameron informs the rest of the EU that he will seek a renegotiated relationship to be put to the British people in an in/out referendum October 2015 David Cameron informs the European Council and the House of Commons of the four sets of reforms he is seeking 10 November David Cameron sets out his aims for reform in a letter to 2015 17 Donald Tusk, President of the European Council December The EU Referendum Act, which enables a referendum to be 2015 held, is given Royal Assent February 2016 David Cameron announces the date of the referendum 15 April 2016 Official referendum campaigning begins 23 June 2016 Referendum held 24 June 2016 David Cameron announces his resignation as prime minister The EU releases a statement on the outcome of the referendum 28-29 June 2016 European Council meeting 13 July 2016 Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservative Party and is appointed prime minister 20 July 2016 Britain agrees to relinquish its next rotating presidency of the European Council, which it was due to hold from July to December 2017 October 2016 Theresa May tells the Conservative Party Conference that she will introduce a 'Great Repeal Bill' to repeal the European PL Communities Act 1972 and that it will be the government's, not Parliament's, decision to trigger Article 50 and that it will so before the end of 2017 October 2016 Legal challenge in Northern Ireland over whether the Northern Ireland Assembly must give its consent to leaving the EU, the Northern Ireland High Court eventually rules against Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, announces legislation for a second independence referendum November Donald Trump wins the US presidential election 2016 13 November UK High Court rules that the UK government cannot use 2016 royal prerogative powers to trigger Article 50 Government appeals to the Supreme Court 5-8 December UK Supreme Court hears the government's appeal against the 2016 High Court's ruling on triggering Article 50 December House of Commons votes to respect the outcome of the 2016 referendum by 461 to 89 January 2017 UK Permanent Representative to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers, resigns Sir Tim Barrow, the then UK ambassador to Russia, is appointed to replace him 17 January 2017 Theresa May delivers her Lancaster House speech in which she sets out her plan for leaving the EU, including 12 priorities for the UK's Brexit objectives 24 January 2017 The UK Supreme Court rejects the UK government's appeal against the High Court ruling and states that primary legislation is required to trigger Article 50 Also rules that the UK Parliament is not required to seek the consent of devolved legislatures 26 January 2017 In response to the Supreme Court's decision, the UK government publishes the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill PL February 2017 UK government publishes a Brexit White Paper setting out its strategy for exiting the EU 9-10 March 2017 European Council in Brussels 13 March 2017 Parliament passes the European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill It gains Royal Assent on 16 March 29 March 2017 Theresa May writes to Donald Tusk to inform him of the UK's intention to leave the EU, thus triggering Article 50 31 March 2017 European Council publishes draft Brexit negotiation guidelines for the EU27 18 April 2017 Theresa May calls an early general election, which MPs approve on 19 April 29 Apr 2017 EU27 leaders meet at a special European Council and unanimously adopt guidelines for Brexit negotiations May 2017 Second round of French presidential elections sees Emmanuel Macron elected president 31 May 2017 Irish High Court rejects a legal challenge over the revocability of Article 50 notification June 2017 UK general election produces a parliament 26 Jun 2017 Conservative-DUP agreement reached that secures a minority Conservative government 19 June 2017 24 Formal negotiations on the UK withdrawal begin September Federal elections in Germany see Angela Merkel returned as 2017 chancellor but with reduced levels of support December UK and EU negotiators agree a text to conclude Phase of the 2017 Brexit negotiations 14-15 December UK and EU leaders agreed there had been suficient progress 2017 in Phase 2017 of the Brexit negotiations for negotiations to move on to Phase Nguồn: Data from Walker (2017) inter alia PL Bảng 2: Các mốc thời gian quan trọng EU Vƣơng Quốc Anh (2018 trở sau) Thời gian First half of 2018 Sự kiện Parliament expected to pass the EUWithdrawal Bill (once known as the 'Great Repeal Bill') 22-23 March 2018 Deal agreed on UK's transition, the Phase negotiations Phase negotiations – over a new relationship - began Autumn 2018 Date by which the UK-EU negotiating time frame aims to have concluded negotiations over the UK's exit Late 2018 UK Parliament presented with the deal agreed with the EU Late 2018 European Parliament votes on the Article 50 deal If the European Parliament gives its consent then the Council votes by super- qualified majority vote on whether to conclude deal 29 March 2019 If two-year time frame of Article 50 is adhered to then this will be when the UK formally leaves the EU (midnight Central European Time) 30 March 2019-31 21 month transition period, as proposed in the March 2018 December 2020 Phase agreement June 2019 European Parliament elections May 2020 Elections for the London Mayor and Greater London Assembly November 2020 US presidential election 31 December 2020 Date on which the transition period is due to end May 2021 Elections to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly May 2020 UK general election Northem Ireland Assembly elections due on May 2022 Nguồn: Data from Walker (2017) inter alia PL hụ lục Article 218 TEU Without prejudice to the specific provisions laid down in Article 207, agreements between the Union and third countries or international organisations shall be negotiated and concluded in accordance with the following procedure The Council shall authorise the opening of negotiations, adopt negotiating directives, authorise the signing of agreements and conclude them The Commission, or the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy where the agreement envisaged relates exclusively or principally to the common foreign and security policy, shall submit recommendations to the Council, which shall adopt a decision authorising the opening of negotiations and, depending on the subject of the agreement envisaged, nominating the Union negotiator or the head of the Union's negotiating team The Council may address directives to the negotiator and designate a special committee in consultation with which the negotiations must be conducted The Council, on a proposal by the negotiator, shall adopt a decision authorising the signing of the agreement and, if necessary, its provisional application before entry into force The Council, on a proposal by the negotiator, shall adopt a decision concluding the agreement Except where agreements relate exclusively to the common foreign and security policy, the Council shall adopt the decision concluding the agreement: (a) after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament in the following cases: (i) association agreements; (ii) agreement on Union accession to the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms; PL (iii) agreements establishing a specific institutional framework by organising cooperation procedures; (iv) agreements with important budgetary implications for the Union; (v) agreements covering fields to which either the ordinary legislative procedure applies, or the special legislative procedure where consent by the European Parliament is required The European Parliament and the Council may, in an urgent situation, agree upon a time-limit for consent (b) after consulting the European Parliament in other cases The European Parliament shall deliver its opinion within a time-limit which the Council may set depending on the urgency of the matter In the absence of an opinion within that time-limit, the Council may act When concluding an agreement, the Council may, by way of derogation from paragraphs 5, and 9, authorise the negotiator to approve on the Union's behalf modifications to the agreement where it provides for them to be adopted by a simplified procedure or by a body set up by the agreement The Council may attach specific conditions to such authorisation The Council shall act by a qualified majority throughout the procedure However, it shall act unanimously when the agreement covers a field for which unanimity is required for the adoption of a Union act as well as for association agreements and the agreements referred to in Article 212 with the States which are candidates for accession The Council shall also act unanimously for the agreement on accession of the Union to the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms; the decision concluding this agreement shall enter into force after it has been approved by the Member States in accordance with their respective constitutional requirements The Council, on a proposal from the Commission or the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, shall adopt a decision suspending application of an agreement and establishing the positions to be adopted on the Union's behalf in a body set up by an agreement, when that body is PL 10 called upon to adopt acts having legal effects, with the exception of acts supplementing or amending the institutional framework of the agreement 10 The European Parliament shall be immediately and fully informed at all stages of the procedure 11 A Member State, the European Parliament, the Council or the Commission may obtain the opinion of the Court of Justice as to whether an agreement envisaged is compatible with the Treaties Where the opinion of the Court is adverse, the agreement envisaged may not enter into force unless it is amended or the Treaties are revised The Lisbon Treaty 2009 Retrieved Dec 20, 2019, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/5/the-treaty-of-lisbon from PL 11 Article 50 Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period For the purposes of paragraphs and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49 Nguồn: Official Journal of the European Union 2012 Retrieved Jan 20, 2019, from content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A12012M050 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal- PL 12 Phụ lục Nguồn: https://www.musement.com/uk/london/ Hình Thành phố London Nguồn: https://www.polgeonow.com/2014/08/map-which-countries-use-euro-plusthis.html Hình The Eurozone, European Union, and other countries using the euro PL 13 Nguồn: https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-brandsfellow-tory-19610727 Hình Cựu thủ tƣớng David Cameron thủ tƣớng Boris Johnson Nguồn: https://victor-mochere.com/vi/best-quotes-from-margaret-thatcher Hình 4: Vị nữ Thủ tƣớng Anh - Margaret Thatcher PL 14 Nguồn: https://www.polgeonow.com/2014/08/map-which-countries-use-europlus-this.html Hình The full European Union (EU) and prospective members ... mạch tiến trình Brexit chưa sâu làm rõ nguyên nhân, diễn biến, hệ ban đầu tiến trình Brexit Từ việc kế thừa kết nghiên cứu có, tơi muốn nghiên cứu sâu hơn, làm rõ vấn đề ? ?Tiến trình Brexit: Nguyên. .. rõ vấn đề ? ?Tiến trình Brexit: Nguyên nhân, diễn biến hệ quả? ?? 4 ối tƣợng phạm vi nghiên cứu 3.1 ối tƣợng nghiên cứu Tiến trình Brexit: Nguyễn nhân, diễn biến hệ 3.2 Phạm vi nghiên cứu - Không gian... sử, luận văn thống kê lại tranh tồn cảnh Tiến trình Brexit Vương quốc Anh EU Luận văn trình bày phân tích nguyên nhân, diễn biến hệ ban đầu tiến trình Brexit từ cho thấy xu quốc tế hiệu liên kết