Hon niia, da deh liic, neu khong nang cao chat lugng tang trudng thi viee tang trudng theo tdc do cu cung khd dat dugc; bii hgc kinh nghiem ctia Viet Nam ciing nhu cac nude tren the g[r]
(1)TANG TRU'ONG KINH TE
Vi m G^n Ku tien ciii tieu Rii^t iirunn?
T&ng Uirdng kinh te' d diu vao phu thugc vao yeu td: vdn dau tu, sd lugng lao dgng vi nang suit tdng hgp Hai ye'u td diu gin vdi tang trudng vl sd lugng, phit trien ve bl rong; ye'u td sau gin vdi cha't lugng tang trudng, phat trien theo chieu sau Theo udc tfnh gin day, ty trgng ddng gdp cua ye'u td tang sd lugng vdn dau tu chie'm khoang 55%, ciia ye'u td tang sd lugng lao dgng chiem khoang 20%, eiia yeu td tang nang suit tdng hgp chie'm khoang 25% Theo dd, viee tang sd lugng vdn diu tu va viec tang sd lugng lao dgng da chiem 75% tdng tdc tang trudng GDP Ty trgng ddng gdp cita yeu td tang nang suit tdng hgp mdi chiem 25%, cdn tha'p xa so vdi sd tuang ting 36- 40% ciia cac nudc khu -virc Nhu vay, tang trudng kinh te Viet Nam thdi gian qua vin chit yeu la tang trudng theo sd lugng, phat trien theo chilu rong; \'iec tang trudng chit lugng, phat triln theo chilu sau cdn ft
Tang trudng kinh te' dira chit yeu \'ao tiuig vdn diu tu, vao tang sd lugng lao dgng vita lam eho hieu qui \a sii:c canh tranh tha'p, la ngudn gdc sau \a \'a la yeu to tilm in eua bgi chi ngan sach, lam phat, nhap sieu, ng qudc gia vira eo tfnh hiru han Miii phai di \ay, sd lugng
^ PHUONG NGOC MINH
lao dgng my vSn cdn tang, nhung tdc se cham lai vi rdi de'n liic ciing nhu nhilu nudc se cdn bj giam
Nang suit tdng hgp bao gdm hieu qui vdn diu tu, nang suit lao dgng, ky thuat- cong nghe
Hieu qua vdn diu tu dugc bilu hien d chi tieu: vdn diu tu/GDP tang, GDP/vdn diu tu, ty le vdn diu tu/GDP chia cho tdc tang GDP Cac ehi tieu qua cac thdi ky tir 1996 den nhu sau:
Mgt, \'dn diu Ur/GDP tang- Uic li dl tang ddng GDP cin bao nhieu ddng vdn diu tu phit triln De tang ddng GDP neu thdi ky 1996-2000 chi phii bd 0,56 ddng vdn diu ux, thi thai ky 2001- 2005 phai bd 0,58 ddng va thdi ky 2006-2010 phii bd 0,61 ddng Nhu vay, dl tang ddng GDP, da phii bd nhilu vdn diu ru ban, chirng td hieu qui diu tu bi giim
Hai GDP/\'dn diu tu- tiic la mgt ddng \dn diu tu tao dugc bao nhieu ddng GDP Mgt ddng vdn diu tu ne'u thdi ky 1996- 2000 tao dugc ddng GDP, thi thdi ky 2001- 2005 chi tao dugc 2,78 ddng GDP \'i thdi ky 2006- 2010 chi tao dugc 2,34 ddng GDP Nhu vay mgt ddng vdn diu tu theo thdi gian tao ft ddng GDP ban, chiing td hieu qua dau tu bj giim
Ba, vdn diu tu/GDP chia cho tdc
Khoi cong dir an Trung tam Giao due lao dong xa hoi (Ha TTnh) Anh: ST
do tang GDP- he sd cdn dugc ggi la he sd ICOR ICOR phin inh: dl GDP tang dugc % thi ty le vdn dau tu so vdi GDP phii mat bao nhieu %- he sd cang cao va tang len thi hieu qui diu tu cing thip va giam xudng Tfnh theo each niy, ICOR ciia Viet Nam cd dae diem ding luu y Mgt, ICOR da tang len qua cac thdi ky Binh quan thdi ky 1996- 2000 la 4,6 lin, binh quan thdi ky 2001- 2005 la 5,2 lin, binh quan thdi ky 2006- 2009 li 6,1 lin Dilu dd chiing td hieu qui diu Ur giim Hai, ICOR binh quan thdi ky 2006- 2009 cua toin bg nen kinh tela 6,1 lin, thi cua khu vuc kinh te' nha nudc cao nhit (len tdi lin), cita khu vuc cd vdn diu tu nude ngoai cao thii hai (5,1 lin), ciia khu vuc kinh te' ngoii nha nudc thap nha't (4,3 lin) Nhu vay, hieu qui diu tu cita khu virc kinh te' ngoai nhi nudc cao nhit, hieu qui diu tu cua khu vuc cd vdn diu tu nudc ngoai tha'p ban khu vuc kinh te' ngoii nhi nudc, nhung cao hon toan bg nin kinh te' va ciia khu vuc kinh te nha nudc thip nhit
Khu vuc Idnh tenha nudc cd he sd ICOR cao nhat, mgt phin khu vuc niy ganh trich nhiem diu tu vao CO sd ting, vao linh vuc xa hgi, vao cac \aing sau, •viing xa, vung khd khan ma cac phin kinh te khac khong mudn hoac ngai diu tu, cham thu hdi dugc vdn hoac khong cd lai Mgt phan hieu qua vdn dau tu khu
(2)Kinh ta - Kanqi
Norc cdn thap, bdi diu tu cdn bj dan trii, cdn bi lang phi, thit thoat qua cic khau tir quy hoach den thi cong ICOR cua khu vuc kinh te ngoai nha nudc tha'p nhat'do hieu qui diu tu cua khu vitc cao ban, bdi diu tu da cd su chon lua ky ban, tir diu tu thi It lang phi, that thoat qua trinh mua sim, thi cong ICOR cua khu vtic cd vdn diu tu nudc ngoai cdn cao hai nguyen nhan: mgt mat mdi hoac dang dua vio xay dimg, sit dung; mat khic cd hien tugng chuyin gia, lam cho lai 16- va day cung la su ly giai cho hien tugng ty le DN cd vdn dau tu nudc ngoai thdi gian qua lai bj Id nhilu nhu vay
ICOR ciia Viet Nam binh quan thdi ky 1996- 2010 la 5,6 lin Nhu vay, ICOR ciia Viet Nam cao hon so vdi nhilu nudc va viing lanh thd (gip tren lin cua Dii Loan thdi ky 1961- 1980, gap 1,9 lin Han Qudc thdi ky 1961- 1980, gip 1,6 lin cita CHND Trung Hoa thdi ky 2001- 2006, gip 1,3 lan ciia Thii Lan thdi ky 1981- 1985, gip tren 1,2 lan cita Malaysia thdi ky 1981- 1995) Dilu dd chiing td hieu qua dau tu ciia Viet Nam thip ban ciia cac nudc
Mgt ngi dung quan trgng thii hai ctia nang suit tdng hgp la nang suit lao dgng Nang suit lao dgng xa hgi ctia Viet Nam hien cdn thip Nam 2010 cdn dat dudi 40 trieu ddng/ngudi, tuang duong vdi khoang tren 2.000 USD; Tit mite nang suit lao dgng cua Viet Nam nam 2010 cd the thay: Theo nhdm nganh, cita nhdm nganh nong, lam nghiep - thiiy san dat khoing 17,3 trieu ddng/ngudi, tuang duang vdi 880 USD/ngudi; cita nhdm nginh cong nghiep xay dung dat khoing 75 trieu ddng/ngudi, tuang duong vdi khoing 3.880 USD/ngudi; cita nhdm nginh djch "vu dat khoang 52,7 trieu ddng/ngudi, tuong duang vdi khoang 2.731 USD/ngudi So vdi cic nude khu vuc, thi nang suit lao dgng cua Viet Nam cdn rit thap; chi bing m6t nita ciia Philippine, Indonesia, chi bing mgt phin ba cua Thii Lan, mgt phin mudi cua Malaysia, mgt phin ba muoi cita Singapore,
Vdi thuc trang hieu qui diu tu, nang suit lao dgng va ky thuat- cong nghe nhu tren, vdi miic tieu de'n nam 2020 Viet Nam ca ban trd nudc cong nghiep theo hudng hien dai, vdi chii truong tii ca ca'u nen kinh te, thi viec nang cao ty trgng ddng gdp cua yeu td nang suit tong hgp nhu mijc tieu cic Dtr thao Van kien Dai hgi XI li rit ein thiet Theo miic tieu nay, thl ty U'gng ddng gdp cita nang suit tdng hgp ddi vdi tdc tang GDP de'n nam 2015 chiem 31- 32%, de'n nam 2020 chie'm 35%o Hon niia, da deh liic, neu khong nang cao chat lugng tang trudng thi viee tang trudng theo tdc cu cung khd dat dugc; bii hgc kinh nghiem ctia Viet Nam ciing nhu cac nude tren the gidi eho thiy, viec dat miic tieu lau dai, muc tieu cudi cimg khong chi phu thugc vao tdc tang trudng cao hien ma d stl bin viing, sit lien me cita tdc tang unidng dd tuang lai •
Lau da lugn thuong quan tam nhieu hon toi xudt, nhdp khdu hdng
hod, chua quan tdm nhieu den xudt, nhdp khau dich vu - mot phdn do thong tin ve ITnh vuc ndy khd don gidn, mdi dugc cdng bo' tij md'y ndm vd ddy cung cdn Id ITnh vuc tuong dd'i mdi me qud trinh chuyen doi kinh te vd md cilia hgi nhdp ctja Viet Nam,
Tii cac thong tin tren cd the riit mgt sd nhan xet ding luu y vl llnh virc niy nhu sau
Thti nha't, quy mo xuit, nhap khiu djch vti cita Viet Nam ndi chung cdn nhd, the hien d ty le so sanh giiia xuit, nhap khiu djch vu vdi xuit, nhap khau hang hoi Cii thl, ty le xuit, nhap khiu djch vu so vdi xuit, nhap khiu hang hoa chi bing tren dudi 11%
Thii: hai, quan he vdi nude ngoii ve djch •vii, Viet Nam d vj the nhap sieu Nam 2005, nhap sieu 185 trieu USD, ty le nhap sieu so vdi xuit khiu la 4,34% Nam 2006, nhap sieu 22 trieu USD, ty le nhap sieu li 0,43% Nam 2007 nhap sieu li 717 trieu USD, ty le nhap sieu li 11,1% Nam 2008 nhap sieu 950 trieu USD, ty le nhap sieu la 13^56% Nam 2009, nhap sieu 1.134 trieu USD, ty le nhap sieu la 19,7% Nam 2010, nhap sieu 860 trieu USD, ty le nhap sieu la 11,5% Binh quan ttong nam qua da nhap sieu 644,67 trieu USD/imm, ty le nhap sieu la 10,73%
Thii' ba, xuit khau djch vu gdm dich vu du ljch, djch vu van tii (bao gdm ca van tii hang khong, van tai bien), djch vu buu chi'nh, viin thong, djch vu tai chfnh, djch vu bio hiem, djch vu chfnh phit, djch vu khac