chinh sach kfch thich kinh te, thi hudng ngoai hdi sudn se va toan ngdnh ca ban an todn..., ttri tir cudi thang 11/2009 NHNN da cd mdt loat quyet djnh ve dieu chinh LSCB, ty gia, ch[r]
(1)Ket qud s a u mot ndm ddi mdt vdi suy thodi
Kinh te Viet Nam nam 2009 c6 the dugc mo ta ngin gon la nam tru vung bao tap ciia khiing hoang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh te the gioi; chim noi thien tai, dich benh tren dien rong nhung van giir dugc tang trudng GDP cao nhat khoi Asean, la mot 12 quoc gia c6 tang tnrong duong, da chuyen huong cong tir cac giai phap chong lam phat cuoi nam 2008 sang chong suy giam kinh te nam 2009, vin giii dugc an toan he thong ngan hang va kiem soat dugc lam phat chi a muc 6,52%
Ddi mat vdi suy thodi, boat ddng ngan hang nam 2009 co bdn da thdnh cdng tren phuong dien: giir virng vai trd huyet mach ciia nen kinh te, an toan he thdng va tham gia chii lyc chien djch hn dung hd trg lai suat ciia Chinh phu Neu nam qua, nudc My bj pha sdn va ddng ciia gdn 100 ngan hang, chau Au ciing cd hdng chuc nha bang bj ddng cua , thi he thd'ng ngan hdng Viet Nam khdng nhirng khdng cd ngan hdng ndo bj ddng cira, md cdn ddi hdng tram chi nhdnh, diem djch vu ngan hang mdi Todn he
NGAN HANG VIET NAM
sau mot nam doi mat voi
suy thoai
TS - Nguyen Dal Lai
thd'ng vdn boat ddng an todn, vdn ddm bao la huyet mach quan trpng nhdt cua nen kinh te, da thyc thi CO bdn thdnh cdng chinh sdch hen te chuyen hudng tir chd'ng lam phdt sang chd'ng suy thodi va chinh sdch h6 trg lai suat, da lam lan tda hon 450 ngdn ty du ng tin dung dugc h6 trg lai sudt de'n cdc ddi tugng thu hudng, gdp phdn giiip cho rat nhieu doanh nghiep va nha sdn xuat try virng de phdt trien Chinh sach tien te vd chinh sach ngoai hdi nam 2009 ndi chung ciing da thich iing vdi co che chdng suy thodi: ndi Idng cd kiem soat CSTT va ty gia Cu the la toan nganh ciing da thyc thi chinh sdch kich thich kinh te va kich cdu Heu diing thdng qua viec try giir lai sudt cho vay d miic thdp sudt thdi gian dai
Ben canh nhirng no lyc rat Idn cua nganh ngan hang, cdn cd chi phi rdt ldn tir ngan sdch Nhd nudc de kim giir gid vd'n Thyc te, thj tmdng tin dung nam qua da bj chi phdi rat manh bdi mdt sd thi tmdng vdn lien quan khac ldm cho thi tmdng bi phi thj tmdng hda Tnioc het la, thj tmdng vang, gdn het qui 1/2009, gid vdng nudc cdn thdp ban gia vang the gidi qui ddi khoang tir - 7% Nhieu doanh nghiep cd chirc nang da xuat khau vang thu ve dugc hon ty USD ldm cho kim ngach xuat khau qui 1/2009 da xuat sieu xdp xi ty USD Nhung cang ve sau, gid vang nudc cdng bdm dudi kip va vugt xa gid vang the gidi cac hoat ddng ddu CO, so tdn vdn vd gam dir tao
Hai la, thj tmdng Bat ddng san (BDS)
ndng dan len vao thdi diem giiia nam, sau dd tang cham ddn, "dm lai", nhung vdn d miic rat cao so vdi cdu cd khd nang toan thyc Ba la, TTCK, dil de'n thdi diem thdng cudi nam cd suy gidm, nhung nhin todn nam, TTCK vdn tang tmdng rat manh
(2)fiSb
ca v6 lugng va gia hi vd'n hda Vay la den het qui sang ddu qui cho den nhung cud'i nam 2009, toan nen kinh te dudng nhu chi sdi ddng d khu vyc TTTC va khu vyc BDS
Khi lai suat ngan hang hep tuc tri thap va diing yen tuong ddi lau, hen tiii ngudi dan khdng doi dao \i thieu viec lam va dp phan hoa thu nhap doanh nghiep rdt cao, hen ddu tu ciia Nha nudc va doanh nghiep lai rdt ldn thi TTCK nam 2009 ciing vdi mot sd thj tmdng phi san xudt vat chat khac nhu vang, BDS, tdi sdn tdi chfnh khac (ngoai te) da hd nhiing kenh ddu tu va ddu CO hap ddn hon Tuy nhien cac "can ham tni an" cua vdn khdng the cii nam mai hong TTTC va BDS, ma trudc sau ciing phai "trinh dien" thi trudng hang hda va dich vu heu diing Dd se la dp h6 cua dp lyc lam phat gdn nhu da dugc "hen hudc" hong nam 2010 va cd the xa hon neu khdng chu ddng nhan dien va cd giai phap ung phd sdm
Tdi cho rdng, neu han che chinh cua kinh te nam 2009 la it ngudi mua, nhieu ngudi ban, nen hgn dau tu phai "so tdn" vao khu vyc phi sdn xuat hang tieu dting, ngudi san xuat phai "so tdn" bdt khdi day chuyen sdn xuat tmySn tindng ciia minh , thi ban che ciia 2010 se la tien ti^ong xa hdi qua nhi^u so vdi hang cd kha nang dap irng vaAioac so vdi hang cd kha nang "hung hda" dugc vdn dau tu khien lam phat biing phat tir hong Mat khac neu nen kinh te ye'u kem, cdn phai nhap khau, lam phdt hang nhap bi "ddt hda" len thj tiirdng ndi dia ti'nh bdng ddng ndi te
Ddng hanh ciing nhiing dien bien phuc tap cua thi tmdng va ddn trudc xu the hoi phuc cua nen kinh te, ngoai nhihig boat ddng dieu hanh thj tmdng heh te thdng sudt, thj hudng tin dung lan tda cd hieu qua
chinh sach kfch thich kinh te, thi hudng ngoai hdi sudn se va toan ngdnh ca ban an todn , ttri tir cudi thang 11/2009 NHNN da cd mdt loat quyet djnh ve dieu chinh LSCB, ty gia, cho nhap khdu vdng va hep tyc cd cdc chinh sdch va hoat ddng phd'i hgp chd'ng gam dir ddla, can thiep manh vao thi trudng ndi, ngoai te lien ngan hang, kiem soat hn dung vao khu w c phi san xuat hdng hda, dich vu thdng thudng Cd the ndi, nhiing quye't sdch manh tay cua NHNN yong dlSn bien cua TTTC da ndi ldng de chd'ng suy gidm den hidng 12/2009 nhu ndi hen da kha mudn, nhung la rat cdn thiet va phan anh dung vai hd "ddn ddt" thj trudng cua Nha nudc
G i d i p h d p p h d t t r i e n c d c h o g t d o n g n g d n h d n g v d TTTC
Doi voi Chinh Phii:
- Trong bdi canh vira cdn kfch cdu dfch thyc, vira cdn chdng biing nd tdi lam phat vao nam 2010, cac giai phap chinh sdch cdn mang ndi ham chi rd dia chi de tryc hep tang thu nhap va tang tien luong thfch ung cho ngudi lao ddng d moi thdnh phdn kinh te cdn dugc coi la giai phdp mang tinh dot pha nhat ciing vdi cac giai phap md rdng thj tmdng heu hiu ca d yong va ngodi nudc Tang manh hen luong cho ngudi lao ddng phai kem theo viec gidi ban vd kiem soat chat tifen luong va hiu nhap cua cac "dai gia", cdc vj tri lanh dao cao cap cua cdc tap dodn kinh te thudc mpi phdn kinh te Dac biet Id d khu vyc kinh te hong cdc linh vyc khai thac tai nguyen, hiien nhien, mdi tmdng va quan ly vd'n Nha nudc Gdn day "Thdi Bdo kinh te Viet Nam" sd 289 ngdy 3/12/2009 cho biet, Uiu nhap binh quan cua Ban lanh dao ciia Tdng Cdng t>- quan ly vd'n Nhd nudc tai DN
SCIC da len de'n 78,5 hieud/th, yong luong binh quan ciia cdng nhan nganh may xua't khau chi Id 1,5 hieu d/hidng Cung hieo td bdo ndi tren, luang binh quan ciia ngudi lao dgng d khu vyc cdc DNNN hien Id cao nhat, sau dd de'n khu vyc FDI va cudi ciing la mirc thu nhap ciia ngudi lao ddng d khu vyc tu nhan, thii ty qui ddi ty le thu nhap binh quan ciia ngudi lao ddng d cdc khu vyc tren la: 100: 68,4: 56,6
- Gidi ngan diing hen dp va bo sung danh muc cdc cdng trinh dau tu cdng dugc ddnh gia Id cd hieu qua; Dau tu ciia khu vyc NSNN cung phdi theo co che hu hudng; Kiem sodt chat sy thao tiing ciia cdc tap doan cdng nghiep hong viec md rdng boat ddng sang linh vyc Tai chinh - Ngan hang Tranh tao nhiing ddng vd'n ddu tu cheo sang nganh khac va/hoac phi ddu hr sdn xua't, dn chiia nhieu nii ro
- Cdn td chiic ngtiien ciiu lai mot each tdng the ca che "hai thdm do" ddn cdc ddng ddu tu nudc ngodi theo hudng khuyen khich tren co sd djnh hirdng cdc ddng ddu tu theo kjch bdn chii ddng phat trien cdng nghiep phy trg va chuyen giao cdng ngtie ciia nudc ta d cac dja chi, cdc phdn va nganh kinh te cu the Viec khoi day gia trj qudc gia, niem hr tiao dan tdc ve thuomg hieu Viet vira la cap bach, vira mang hnh nen tang cho chie'n lugc phdt hien t)en vung kinh te Viet Nam cilng cdn dugc thiet lap bdng ca co che ldn phap luat
Doi vdi nganh N g ^ hang:
- Nhanh chdng cd nhiing chinh sdch chii ddng, linh hoat khai thdng cho cdc binh thdng giira cac kenh ddn vdn thi hudng tai ctu'nh bang each: Tang cudng viec chuyen vai hd NHNN sang cac hoat ddng theo chiic nang ciia NHTW, cd CO che hing budc ty hoa ldi suat (hen tdi xda bd co che han lai suat)
(3)de thj tmdng ty dieu chinh cd kiem sodt ddi vdi lai suat huy ddng va lai sudt cho vay qua ngan hang; Ldy viec kiem sodt gid trj sire mua dd'i ndi ciia dong ndi te Idm co sd de ki^m soat ty gid hdi doai;
- Cdc NHTM can chuyen hudng manh tii doanh thu dya chu ye'u, tham chi tuyet dd'i vao djch vu tmyen thdng "vay de cho vay" sang tang ty trpng cac dich vu ngan hdng phi hn dyng hoac "chay tie'p sue" vdi TTCK qua nghiep vu tin dyng ngdn han the chdp chiing khodn ng Tin dung qua ngan hdng thuang mai hen tdi chii yeu chi la tin dyng ngdn ban va djch vy phi tin dung, tirng budc dgc lap hda cac nghiep vy boat dgng ngan hdng ddu tu, ngan hang phat trien cau thdnh hoat ddng da nang ciia mdt Dinh che tdi chinh - Cdc boat ddng ti-a, gidm sdt va thu ng de'n ky ddo ban phai col la khdi lugng cdng viec rat Idn, rat quan hong khdng kem nhirng boat ddng nd lyc ciia toan nganh da Uie hien thdng Igi hong "chie'n djch" cho vay cd hd hg lai suat ciia Chi'nh Phii sud't nam qua Nhung sau 31/12/2009 mdi la Uidl diem "do ludng" nil ro nen phai het sire than hpng
- Sdm hodn thien hai Dao Ludt ve hoat ddng ngan hang theo hudng NHTW hda NHNN, thuang mai hda hdu bet cdc boat ddng cung ting djch vu ngan hdng vd "dieu kien" hda tinh dac thii sd hiru va hoat ddng ngan hang, phii hgp vdi thdng le qud'c te
- Sdm tham muu de xuat vdi Chinh Phii de trinh Qud'c hdi viec xda bd CO che khdng che tran lai suat tin dyng thj tmdng phai khdng vugt qud 150% lai suat eo ban md thay vdo dd Id co che sii dyng cac lai suat djnh hudng cua NHTW d thj tmdng tai cap vd'n vd thj tmdng lien ngan hang de chi phdi mat bang ldi suat tren thj tmdng hn dung
- Cdn de xudt vdi Chinh phu cd chinh sdch quye't liet chdng ddla hda Theo kinh nghiem d nhieu nudc khu vyc chau A deu coi chinh sdch qudn ly ngoai hdi Id chinh sdch cua Nhd nudc, ddc lap tuong ddi vdi CSTT va Nha nudc giao cho NHTW dieu hanh chinh sach ndy Cd the thay, Singapore, Thai Lan, Han Qudc, Nhat Ban, Ddi Loan, Hdng Kdng la nhirng vi du dien hinh rat nhieu nhung qud'c gia, hay viing dac khu cd nen kinh te md rdt Idn (tham chf dp md tdi tren 400% GDP nhu Singapore), du bao gdm tren thj tmdng ngoai te cua cdc qud'c gia dd ludn cd mat hdu bet cdc loai ddng hen cd kha nang chuyen ddi nhung khdng cd hien tugng "ngoai te hod" O nhirng nen kinh te ndy cd chinh sach qudn ly ngoai hdi bet siic nghiem ngat, theo dd, viec todn hdng hod djch vu ndi dja hoan todn chi tra qua tdi khodn va bang ddng ndi te Cdc ddng luu chuyen ngoai te chi dugc phep di qua thj tmdng tien te chii tuyet ddi khdng dugc tryc tie'p di vao thj tmdng hang hod, dich vu phi tdi chfnh nudc Viet Nam la mdt nen kinh te cung da cd dp md rat Idn, da len tdi ~ 160% GDP nen vdn de qudn ly ngoai hdi ciing phai dugc coi Id mdt nhirng qud'c sdch Idn cua Nhd nudc Theo dd, cd the coi nhirng giai phdp sau day Id rat cdn dugc van dyng va nghien cihi de tirng budc the che hda:
-I- Triet de chd'ng hien tugng ddla hda theo nguyen tdc tren lanh thd Viet Nam chi tieu tien Viet Nam
-I- Tirng budc gidm quy md, tien tdi ban che de'n tdi thieu quy md thj tmdng hen giii vd hn dung ngoai te nudc
-I- Khuyen khich phdt trien cdng da dang thj tmdng ngoai te gdm da dang cdc ngoai te cd kha nang chuyen ddi ddp irng cdc nhu
cau tien ich ve ngoai te kinh doanh, toan qud'c te vdi ty gia nen ngdy cdng theo co che thj tmdng Tirng budc nhdt the hda ty gid tren toan lanh thd, tie'n tdi cham dirt tinh trang cd thi tmdng ngoai te: thj tmdng cd td chuc va khdng cd td chuc vdi loai ty gid khac
-I- Phdt hanh deu dan trdi phieu ngoai te nudc cd bdo lanh cua Chinh phii de tao hang hod va tinh khodn ngoai te td't cho nen kinh te
+ Da dang hod hinh thirc va co
ca'u dy tni ngoai te Nhd nudc, ddng thdi tang cudng cdc nghiep vu hoan ddi vd hien dai hod cdng nghe todn, dap ung td't nhat, hgp ly nha't nhu cdu ngoai te todn qud'c te
-I- Sdm thu ve mdt ddu mdi nhat quyen, chuc nang qudn ly va sir dung hieu qua theo nguyen tdc bao tdn va phat trien Quy dy tni ngoai hdi Nha nudc, cung nhu mot ddu md'i qudn ly Nhd nudc ve kinh doanh vang mieng, vang todn tai NHNN
Nam 2009 la nam ca nen kinh te lao dao khiing hoang tai chinh va suy thodi kinh te todn cau Viet nam khdng la ngoai le, nhung CO ban try virng vd thdnh cdng da Idn ban that bai Qua khiing hodng chung ta da hm tha'y dugc cho ye'u, cho manh ciing nhu thu hoach dugc khd nhieu bdi hpc qui gid Ngdnh NHVN nam qua ciing td rd vai trd Id nganh kinh te huyet mach gdp phdn lam ndng cd't viec cheo chdng nen kinh te thoat khdi hpa suy thoai Hy vpng, nhirng phan tich vd de xuat bdi viet da phdn ndo ggi md vd gdp phdn giai nhung bai toan dang dat cho nen kinh te ndi chung va hoat ddng ngan hang ndi rieng thdi ky hau 2009