Tinh hinh kinh te the gidi cho thay, nhQng yeu td chinh thuc di'y gia vang tang nam 2010 se tiep tuc tac dpng den thj trQdng vang n3m 2011 nhQ: kha n3ng hdi phuc cua kinh te the gid[r]
(1)YtOVGBU&C TBOJVG TIL IC H THUU
I Thj trirdng vang the gidi nam 2010: Nam tang gia an tiffing
Nam 2010 dagc xem nha la "nam vang" cua kim loai quy va hang hda Theo so lieu thd'ng ke, gia vang da tang gan 30% (nam 2010, gia md cda la 1.096,75 USD/ounce va gia ddng cda la 1.421 USD/ounce); gia bac tang 84%, palladium tang 96%, platinum tang 21%, dong tang 33% va dau thd tang 5%
Viec gia vang tang nam 2010 da danh da'u mdt thap ky tang gia lien tiep cua vang, td mdc 251 USD/ounce nam 2001 len mQc ky luc 1.431 USD/ounce ddpc xac lap vao 07/12/2010 Thdi gian qua, vang dPdc danh gia la mdt loai tien te thay the va ddng vai trd la "ham tru an an loan" trade nhQng bat dn khdng iQdng trade cua thi trUdng tai chinh qudc te
Cac mdc quan trpng cua thi trudng vang the gidi nam 201 la:
- Ngay 05/02/2010: gia vang dat mQc tha'p nhat nam 11.044,45 USD/ounce), md da tang gia cua vang
- Ngay 14/05/2010: vang tang gia len mQc 1.249 USD/ounce, xac lap mdt mQc ky luc mdi
- Ngay 21/06/2010: vang tang gia len mQc 1.265 USD/ounce, tiep tuc xac lap vung dinh mdi
- Ngay 28/07/2010: vang giao dich d mQc 1.156,70 USD/ounce, danh da'u mQc hd tro quan thQ hai nim Nhu cau mua tang cao, ddng USD truqt gia da hd tra rat manh cho gia vang
- Ngay 09/11/2010: vang giao dich a mQc gia ky Ipc mdi 1.424
D U B A O G I A V A N G T H E G l d l N A M 1 NGUYEN THj BICH HOA, NGUYEN HONG QUAN vd cong sU
Chi nhanh tai Thanh phd Ho Chi Minh Trung tdm Thdng tin vd DU bdo kinh te - xd hdi guoc gia
In 2010, world gold price rose by approximately 30%, which marked a decade long of continual rise During recent years, gold has been seen as alternative currency and safe haven for unexpected volatile interna-tional financial market Underlying reasons of sharp changes in world gold market in 2010 are: USD depreciation; public debt in Europe; sharp increase in gold demands of India and China; political instability in Korean peninsula
In 2011, those factors that drove up world gold price in 2010 are expected to continue to affect world gold market In addition, other fac-tors should be taken into account include: risk of double crisis in devel-oped economies; natural disasters But there still exist factors that reduce gold price such as: signs of US economic recovery; global econ-omy continues its rebound momentum; gold supply is higher Based on assessment of above factors and technical analyses, 2011 is forecasted to be a year of downward adjustment of gold price and the price will fluctuate within range of 1,425 - 1,145 USD/ounce
USD/ounce Thi trUdng vang sdi sue khien ca the gidi "bat ngd" vdi gia vang, "Chien tranh tien te" bung phat
- Ngay 07/12/2010: gia vang xac lap mQc ky luc moi thdi dai, dat 1.430,75 USD/ounce
- Ngay 31/12/2010: vang ddng cda d mQc gia 1.421 USD/ounce, danh dau nam thQ 10 tang lien tiep cua gia vang
Sau tao sdng ldn vao thang 11/2009, thi trudng vang the gidi tram ling mdt thdi gian kha d i i Tuy nhien, bQdc sang nim 2010, bi't chi'p sp lo ngai cua ngQdi din v i gidi dau tU tren toin the gidi, gii ving lien tuc "nhiy mua", die biet l i vio nda cudi nam 2010 vdi hing loat yeu to hd trp, tao cic dat sdng tang lien tuc va phi vo nhieu ky luc ve gii DPdi diy la mpt sd nguyen nhan din den sp bien ddng manh cua gii ving nim 2010:
- Dong USD giam gia Trong nim 2010, nen kinh te ldn nha't the gidi dUng trudc nguy co cua cudc khung hoing kep Theo nhieu chuyen gia kinh te, nen kinh te My van ri't bat dn, hing loat gdi hd trp dupe dUa nhim ndi long dinh lupng, dn dinh kinh te, dien hinh l i 03/11/201 0, Cue Dp trQ lien bang My (FED) quyet dinh bom them 600
(2)ty USD vao thi trifdng de mua trai phieu kho bac (2-10 nam) thdi han thang Gdi ho tro dang dat dau cham hdi cho cac nha dau tU va dU bao se lam giam gia dong USD SU mat long tin vao dong USD se khien gia trai phieu chinh phu My giam manh va lai suat tang vpt
Theo dd, de bao toan tai san, vang vin dupe xem la Ipa chon hang diu ddi vdi cac nha diu tu Viec cic nha diu tU them ving vio danh muc diu tU nhim bio tdn gii trj d i hd trp tdt cho gii ving Cd the ndi, nam 2010, mdi tuong quan ty le nghich gida gii vang va USD d i giii thich cho phin ldn d i tang cua gii ving Khi khung hoing tii chinh toin ciu nd ra, nhieu ngin hing trung UOng (NHTW) tren the gidi d i i p dung cic chinh sich ndi long tien te v i bom hing nghin ty USD vio thi trudng de giup nen kinh te thoit khdi nguy CO suy thoii He qui cua chinh sich niy l i i p Ipc lam phit gia ting, niem tin cua ngUdi din va nhi diu tu vio ddng USD vdi vai tro l i kenh du tru" gii tri bj sut giim, khien ho ting cUdng mua ving - Cupc khung hoang no d chau Au Cupc khung hoing np d chau Au xui't phit tU Hy Lap vao cudi nam 2009 v i bit diu bung nd vio diu nam 2010 d i trd thinh tim diem cua kinh te the gidi sudt nam 2010 Mpt loat cic qudc gia nhu Hy Lap, Tiy Ban Nha, Bd Dio Nha, Ailen v i Italia vUdng phii ginh ning np nln, tao sUc ep ldn len ddng euro va lim suy giim long tin ddi vdi he thdng ngin hing chiu Au Theo nhieu nhi phin tich, dp bio cudc khung hoing cd the cdn tiep tuc keo d i i thdi gian tdi Di cung vdi cupc chien tranh tien te, lo ngai ve khung hoing no d chiu Au cung khien cic nhi diu tU tim den ving nhu mdt diem tru chin bio tai chinh d chiu Au
- Mat can do'i ldn ve cung - cau Ngudn cung ving tren trii dit l i hUu han, dd, viec khai thic ving dang ngiy cing trd nen khd khan v i dit dd hon Mi't cin dd'i cung - ciu vang dang ngiy cing ldn, nhi't l i cic qudc gia sin xui't ving hing diu dang can kiet din t i i nguyen Udc tinh tdng khdi lupng vang dp trU qua che bien cua the gidi hien d mdc 160.000 tin v i dupe bd sung them 2.400 tan/nam, tUOng duong vdi mUc tang 1,7%, thip hon nhieu so vdi mUc tang cua ciu Mat khic, lin sdng "gom" ving cua cic quy diu tu dang dien Sd lieu thd'ng ke cho thi'y, Quy diu tU ving hing diu the gidi SPDR Gold Trust mua ving nhieu hon bin ra, cu the: tU diu thing 9/2010 den 9/11/2010, gii ving vuot "dinh" 1.400 USD/ounce, SPDR Gold Trust d i bin 14,4 ti'n ving, mua vio 17,3 tin vang, ning khdi lupng nim gid len mdc ky luc 1.305,7 ti'n ving Theo gidi phan tich, ddng thii niy cua SPDR Gold Trust d i cd tic dpng ri't ldn den thj trUdng v i kich hoat thj trUdng ving bung nd
Ben canh dd, ngin hing trung UOng (NHTW) cic nUdc cung dang ting cUdng mua ving Thdng thudng, cic NHTW la "kho du tru*" ving cua toin the gidi v i thudng xuyen sd dung lupng vang khdng Id kho de dieu tiet thi trudng, qua dd giQ gii ving d mdc khdng qui "ndng" Tuy nhien, bd'i cinh bio gii keo d i i , lupng dp trU cua hp cung din can kiet v i cic NHTW phii chi'p nhin "tha ndi" gii ving Ding chu y, khdng it NHTW tang cUdng mua ving cua cic quy diu tU bing cich da dang du trO bing vang lo ngai cho an nguy qudc gia Ddng thii vd hinh trung d i day gii ving len cao hon, di ngppc lai
nhiem vu ban diu cua cic ngin hang
- Ye'u td lam phat Theo nhieu chuyen gia, du nen kinh te the gidi roi vio tinh trang lam phit hay giim phit thi gii vang van tiep tuc tang vi ving ludn dope xem l i t i i sin an toin nhi't nen kinh te roi vio giai doan khd khan
Cic gdi kich thich tang trudng kinh te ldn tren toin ciu d i kich hoat nhin td lam phit, tU dd tic ddng lim tang gii ving Trong hai nam qua, cic NHTW cua My, chiu Au, Trung Qudc, Nhit Bin v i nhieu nUdc khic da tang chi tieu, ddng thdi in them tien mat Hing nghin ty USD khoin d i dUdc bom vio nen kinh te toan ciu, khien lam phit tang vpt Tren thpc te, gii c i d i tang manh ddi vdi hai mat hing thUc pham va nhien lieu
- Nhu cau mua vang td An Do va Trung Qud'c tSng manh Trung Qud'c v i An Do (chiem den 35% dan so the gidi) l i hai qudc gia Ua chuong ving Thdi gian qua, tieu dung ving cua An Dd - qud'c gia tieu thu ving ldn nhi't the gidi -d i tic -dpng nhieu -den gii vang Theo dp bio cua cic quy tai chinh ldn, nhu ciu vang tai An Dp chua cd did hieu suy giim bdi khdng chi mua vang de lam trang sUc, ngUdi din nUdc niy gid diy bit dau cd thdi quen diu tu dii han vio ving Nim 2010, Udc tinh nhu cau ving cua An Dd tang 11%
Nim 2010, nhu ciu vang cua Trung Qud'c d i tic dpng ldn den thj trudng ving the gidi Trong 10 thing diu nam, Trung Qud'c da nhip khau hon 209 ti'n vang, tang gan lan so vdi mUc 45 ti'n cua c i nam 2009 Ddng thdi, nam qua, Bic Kinh khdng ngUng gia tang lUdng dU trU ving, tU mUc 600 ti'n len 1.054 ti'n Theo gidi chuyen
(3)C H A O X U A N T A N M A O gia, Trung Qudc se tiep tuc tang
loons vang dp trQ voi muc dich dUa ddng NDT ddng tien toan qudc te thay the ddng USD Chinh phu Trung Qudc cung khuyen khich ngudi dan day manh mua vang, ban NDT de gdp phan gia NDT, kich thich xuat khau Day cung la mpt nhQng nguyen nhan quan trpng lam giam gia ddng USD, tao dieu kien cho gia vang leo thang
- Bat on chinh tri d ban dao Trieu Tien Vao nda cudi nam 2010, quan he giQa Han Qudc va B3c Trieu Tien trd nen cang thang, tao sp lo ngai se cd chien tranh nd giQa hai node Dieu da khien gidi dau to tim den va tiep tuc mua vang de dp trQ, khien gia vang tang manh
II DP bao thj trQdng vang the gidi nam 2011
Tinh hinh kinh te the gidi cho thay, nhQng yeu td chinh thuc di'y gia vang tang nam 2010 se tiep tuc tac dpng den thj trQdng vang n3m 2011 nhQ: kha n3ng hdi phuc cua kinh te the gidi chua rd net; khung hoang np cdng d chau Au van tiem an nguy cd lan rong; nguy cd lam phat cao cung vdi nhQng bat dn tren thj trQdng chQng khoan, thj trQdng bat dpng san; mat can ddi quan he cung - cau vang Ngoai can tinh den cac nhan to sau:
- Cac nUdc phat trien dang phai dd'i mat vdi nguy co suy thoai lan thd hai Trong nam qua, tdc dp tang trQdng manh cua cac nen kinh te chau A da gdp phan dang ke vipc da'y gia hang hda len cao, lam day len sp lo ngai bung nd bong bdng lam phat
1,1 Trong nam 2010 so' ngan hdng phd son toi
My tdng ky luc Tinh den ddu thdng U/2010 dd cd <S3 ngdn hdng phd sdn
va khien cac nen kinh te chao dao Khi lam phat bung nd, gia ca hang hda va dac biet la vang se tiep tuc leo thang Ben canh dd, cac chinh sach ndi long djnh lUdng dang dupe trien khai tai nhieu nUdc cung lam gia tang md'i lo ngai lam phat tuong lai, khien lai sua't dai han tang cao
Trong bdi canh nen kinh te chQa cd nhieu khdi sic nho hien nay, cac qud'c gia tren the gidi budc phai that chat chi tieu nhieu nQdc dang phai ddi mat vdi cac khoan tham hut ngan sach khdng Id va van de np cdng Tuy nhien, theo canh bao cua Quy Tien te Qudc te (IMF), viec that chat chi tieu cd the khien cac nPdc phat trien lam vao suy thoai lan hai sp phuc hdi kinh te tai cac nen kinh te rat cham chap va mong manh Kinh te My dang gap nhieu khd khan: lan sdng tjch thu tai khoan the chap cang dQ dpi, cac doanh nghiep vQa va nhd khdng nhan dope vdn vay, cac ngan hang quy md vQa va nhd cd the cap vd'n cho cac doanh nghiep vin dang phii ddi mat vdi nguy CO phi sin"1
- Ngoai ra, cac yeu to tu nhien cd the tac ddng trUc tiep va gian tiep tdi gia vang nhit dpng dit, nui Ida, thien tai
Dudi tic ddng cua cic nhin td ke tren, nam 2011, dp bio ving vin tiep tuc dupe xem l i "him tru an" an toin C i i ving cd the tiep tuc tang v i theo nhieu nhin dinh, cd the dat tdi mdc 1.500-1.650 USD/ounce, thim chi cao hdn
Tuy nhien, n3m 2011, cung cd nhieu nhin to tic ddng khien ving giim gii, dd l i :
- Kinh te My cd dau hieu khdi sic: theo dp bio cua nhieu chuyen gia, kinh te My nim 2011 cd the dat mQc ting trudng 2-3% Su khdi sac cua kinh te My se hd trp cho tang trudng kinh te the gidi vi My van la nen kinh te ldn nhi't the gidi
- Kinh te the gidi dang tren da phuc hdi: cic nen kinh te d chiu Au va Nhit Bin du bio se dat tdc ting trudng Ben canh dd, cic nUdc dang phit trien dp bio se tiep tuc tang trudng cao, ddng gdp vio tang trUdng kinh te toin ciu
Su khdi sac cua kinh te My va sU phuc hdi cua kinh te the gidi se l i yeu td quan trpng cd the dUa gii ving dn djnh trd lai
- Nguon cung vang duoc bo sung: viec An Dp phit hien md ving cd trQ iQpng 6.000 tin l i mdt yeu to inh hodng manh me tdi gii ving thdi gian tdi Viec dQa vio khai thic md ving niy se tao ngudn cung ri't ldn cho nhu cau thj trQdng hien nay, tQ dd khien gii ving giim
Vdi nhQng thdng tin kinh te tich cQc ke tren v i viec da dang hoi danh muc diu tQ, dp bio thj trudng tien te se cin bing hon nam 2011 Cung vdi sU hdi phuc cua kinh te the gidi, gii ving dp bio se trd ve vdi gii trj thUc va nim 2011 cd the la nim didu chinh nhe cua gii ving sau chu ki 10 nim tang gii lien tiep
III Nhan djnh gia vang the gidi nam 2011 theo phan tich ky thuat Nim 2010, gii vang the gidi md cda d mUc 1.096,75 USD/ounce, xud'ng mQc thi'p nhi't 1.044,45 USD/ounce, sau dd tang len mQc cao ky Ipc 1.430,75 USD/ounce v i ddng cda d mQc 1.421,60 USD/ounce, ghi nhin mdt nim tang gii manh v i la nam ting gii thQ 10 lien tiep (Bieu dd thing)
(4)Bieu 1: Phan tich ky thuat bao gia vang theo tha
Tai bieu dd thang, chi bao Stochastic (chi sd can ban nhan biet khuynh hodng va su* dao chieu cua thi trudng) dang tU tren vung qua mua quay dau xudng, cho thay tin hieu giam dieu chinh cua gia vang nhUng thang dau nam 2011 Chi bao Volumes (khdi luang mua ban theo cung cau tren thi trUdng) cho thay, gia vang dang nim d mUc cao chua tdng cd sau thing ting lien tiep vdi khdi lupng giao dich ri't ldn nhUng thing cud'i nam 201 0, nhien d i sut giim manh nhUng ngiy diu nim 2011 Dieu niy bio hieu sp dio chieu giim gii cua vang nam 2011 l i ri't cao
Bieu 2: Phan tich ky thuat du bao gia vang theo tuan
Tai bieu dd tuan, dudng chi bio xu hudng d i cit dudng MACD (chi so bien ddng gii) v i hudng xud'ng, md ning giim gii nhUng tuan diu nam 2011 v i nam 201 1, gii vang cd the giim siu neu nguong hd trp 1.300 USD'ounce v i 1.290 USD/ounce bi xuyen thung Chi bio Stochastic cung dang quay diu xud'ng, cung cd cho xu hudng giim d i neu
SU dung phin tich co bin ket hop vdi ket qui phin tich ky thuat, Nhdm tic gii dp bio nam 2011 cd nang l i mpt nam giim dieu chinh cua gii ving va bien dp dao ddng cua gii vang l i : 1.425-1.145 USD/ounce
Tac dong den gia vang (rong node: gii vang Viet Nam dp bio se dao ddng theo nhip tang, giim cua gii vang the gidi, nhien vin cd mUc chenh lech cao gida gii ving nUdc v i gii ving the gidi Mac du d i cd su lien thdng Nhi nUdc da ci'p han ngach nhip khi'u ving cho mdt sd don vi du didu kien, nhung mdt so chinh sich cua Nhi nUdc va tim ly mua ving tich tru*, diu cO cua ngUdi din cung tic dpng khdng it tdi gii ving nudcD