Dieu niiy eung ly giai vi sao mirc do huy dgng vdn dau tu ngdy cdng tang va nhu X'ay ciing cd nghia la hieu qua sir dyng von dau tu dang cd xu hudng gidm dan.. Ngudn vdn ddu tw.[r]
(1)NGHIEN CLFU TRAO DOl Sd I (90)-2011 ^
CHINH SACH HUY D O N G VON GIAI DOAN 2001 - 2010 VA DINH HUONG 10 NAM
Tinh hinh huy dpng vdn
cho ddu tuphdt trien
Ve quy md vdn Jdii lu Quy 1110 vdn cho dau tu phat
trien tir ndm 2001 - 2010 tang khdng ngirng qua edc nam va quy md cua GDP luong iing Cling tang len Sd lieu cy the X'e qu}' md xdn dau tu xd qu} md GDP hang nam tir 2001 -2009 the hien qua sd lieu va bieu sau:
Bieu cho thay xu the GDP va vdn dau tu deu ldng giai doan 2001 - 2009 Tuy nhien qu} md GDP nam 2009 so nam 2001 chi lang 3.4 lan song quy md xon dau tu thi tang 4.2 lan So lieu cho thd}, vdn dau tu tdng nhanh hon muc tang cua GDP nhu vay cd the ndi la x on ddu tu dang cd xu hudng giam hieu qua
Quy md vdn dau tu x a
Ve mice dp huy dpng vdn
De danh gia ve rd hon ve hux' dgng vdn can thiet phai nghien cuu mirc hu} dgng xdn dau lu so GDP hang nam Sd lieu va bieu dd ve miic hu}' dgng von giai doan 2001 - 2009 the hien bieu sau:
Tir so lieu x'd bieu dd cho thd} hu}' dgng xon dau tu giai doan 2001 - 2009 lang dan theo thdi gian Neu nam 2001 huy dgng xdn chi a mirc 35.42''/o thi nam 2007 da len d^n 46.52% GDR Nam 2008 vd 2009 thi mirc huy dgng vdn da giam xudng miic 42 -^43%
Giai doan 2001 - 2007, huy dgng vdn eao la xudt phdt tir viec theo dudi chinh sdch tang trudng nhanh ciia Chinh phii nen can thiel phdi lang vdn dau tu Ngodi ndm GDP giai doan 2001 - 2009
Don vi: tv ddmi
1800000 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 481295 400000 200000
1858389 1485038
715307 I—I 7C38; ,,,, - 613443 I—I S15735 _
1295 " n 53 2093 M
iM:frti"lJ.JJ
™49f
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
.Ngudn: Nien Gidm thdng ke
TS.Nguyen Ngoc Tuyen Ths Le Thi Van Anh
2007 la nam Viet nam tro thdnh vien chinh thiic cua WTO mdi trudng dau tu dugc nio' rgng cho nen xdn dau lu ldng dot bien
Giai doan 2008 - 2009, Chinh phii thuc hien dieu chinh cdc chinh sach x'e tai khda X'd lien te de doi phd xdi tdc dgng anh huong cua khiing hoang ldi chinh the gidi lam phdt ldng cao vd ddng vdn dau lu tren thj trudng the gidi giam khung hodng da lam cho nnic huy dgng vdn d Viet nam gidm xudng
Ve ldc dp ldng vdn ddu lu
Tdc tdng xdn dau tu cung la chl tieu quan trgng phan tich ve huy dgng vdn dau tu Sd lieu va bieu dd ve tdc tang vdn dau lu giai doan 2001 - 2009 the hien nhu sau;
Bieu dd tren cho thay, nhiing nam 2001 - 2006, toe tang vdn dau tu va toe ldng GDP la tuong irng
Nam 2007 x'dn dau tu tang len 21% va GDP ciing tang X'di tdc cao nhat ke tir nam 2001 la 8.46%
Cdc nam 2008 - 2009, toe tang vdn dau lu va tdc tang GDP deu ed xu hudng giam
(2)( Sd 1(90)-2011 ) NGHIEN CLPU TRAO OOI
Ty trgng von ddu tu so GDP giai doan 2001 - 2010
Don vi:
50 00
45.00 40.00 35.00 30 00 25 00 20.00 1500 1000
5.00 0.00
35.42 37.36
40 67 40,89 t1 54 41.53 ^"^
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Ngudn: Nien Gidm thdng ke
Tdc tang von dau tu va GDP giai doan 2001 - 2009
Don vi:%
3000
25,00
20,00
, 27 05
^ •-8r44 » 0.23
11,43'
0 00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Ngudn: Nien Gidm thdng ke
14%, dd tdc ldng GDP chi la 732% (tdc tang vdn dau tu tang gap lan tdc tang GDP) Dieu niiy eung ly giai vi mirc huy dgng vdn dau tu ngdy cdng tang va nhu X'ay ciing cd nghia la hieu qua sir dyng von dau tu dang cd xu hudng gidm dan
Ngudn vdn ddu tw
Nghien ciiu ngudn von dau tu hay huy dgng x'dn theo cac phan kinh te (khu vuc sd hiru: vdn dau tu lir khu xyc kinh te nha nudc vdn dau tu khu vuc kinh le naaai nhd
nudc xa vdn dau lu khu vy kinh te cd x'dn dau luu trirc tiep nudc ngodi) de thay rd vai trd ciia Ciic khu vuc kinh le ddng gdp vdo tdng vdn dau lu xa hgi Co cau vdn dau tu xa hgi giai doan 2001 -2009 a Viet nam the hien tren bieu sau:
Bieu dd x'd cac so lieu tren cho thdy lii' 2001 - 2009, vdn dau lu lir khu vyc kinh te nhd nudc dang cd xu hudng giam dan lir khoang 60%) tdng vdn dau lu ndm 2001 xuong cdn khoana 410'o nam 2009 Nauoc
lai ty trgng vdn dau lu eiia khu vyc tu nhan va khu vyc kinh te ed xon dau tu nudc ngodi lai cd xu hirdng tang dan Dac biet von dau tu nudc ngoai da tang til' 17.6% ndm 2001 len 25.6% vao nam 2009 Vdn ddu tu cua khu vuc kinh te ngodi nhd nuL7c da ldng tir 22.6 nam 2001 len 33.4% xao nam 2009 Nam 2001 ly trgng cua vdn dau tu khu vyc kinh le nhd nudc cd ty trgng ldn Id hai nguyen nhan Trudc het tac dgng anh hudng cua khung hoang tai chinh - lien le ldm cho ndng luc ldi chinh cua cdc nhd ddu tu thugc khu vuc ngodi nhd nudc vd khu vuc cd vdn dau tu nudc ngodi gidm sul Ngoai ra, de ngan chdn nguy co' suy thoai xay nhanh chdng cd dugc toe tdng truong cao trd lai tao moi trudng dau tu hap dan, thuc diiy dau lu lu nhdn vd dau lu true tiep nude ngodi thi nha nudc da chu dgng ldng vdn ddu lu tap trung x'do cdc cdng trinh lang ca sd kinh le, tang xa hgi tao mdi trirdng dau lu hap dan, thiic day khu vyc tu nhan vd khu vu kinh le FDI nen von dau tu khu vuc nhd nudc da tdng manh va cd ly trgng ldn
Tir sau ndm 2004 vdn dau lu lu nhan xa dau Uv tryc tiep nudc ngoai da tang irudng trd lai moi trudng dau lu ngdy cang lot len, ddc biel nam 2007, Viet nam tro thdnh thdnh vien chinh thirc cua WTO tbi von dau lu FDI da tana manh
(3)NGHIEN CU'U TRAO DOI ( Sdi (90)-2011 )
Quy md xon dau lu lii' kinh le nhd nudc
Dan vi: ty ddng
200000 180000 KOOOO 140000 UOOOO BOOOO 80000 60000 40000 20000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200
Ngudn: Nien Gidm thdng ke
Co cau xon dau tu tir khu vuc kinh le nha nudc
Dcm vi: % DNSBTDDDN
120 00
100.00
80,00
60 00
40 00
20,00
COO
7 : J 2415 : ? 2334 13 038 4 ' i,e2
1 1 i I 11 • •
'4.71 /3.7 -^S.Ca ' 43 4.4 4.1 4.21
1.81 «*-32
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Ngudn: Nien Gidm ihdng ke
cao hon ban so vdi cac nam trudc va vay ty^ trgng xon khu X'UC dugc nang dan len Khi khung hoang tai chinh the gidi xdy vao eudi nam 2008 thi xu hirdng xdn dau lu tu nhan va xdn dau tu FDI cung bj tdc dgng dnh huong va chirng lai dd xdi chinh sach kfch thfch kinh te
manh me cua Chinh phu, xai trd eua xdn dau lu nha nudc lai tdng cao vd mgt lan nua trd thdnh nhan td quan trgng ngan chdn su}' thoai xd la }'eu td quan trgng de dua kinh te thodt khoi khung hoang lirng budc lay lai ldc lang truang kinh te cao
Tir nabien ciru x'e co cau
vdn dau tu theo khu vyc kinh te, so sdnh phan tich xdi mirc ddng gdp vao GDP ciia tirng khu x uc va lir dd cd the cd nhung ddnh gia, nhan dinh X'e xu hudng dau tu ve hieu qua dau lu Sd lieu x'e co cau vdn dau tu xd co cau GDP cua tirng khu vuc kinh te dugc the hien bieu sau:
Sd lieu tren dd} cho thay X on dau lu cua khu xyc tu nhan chl chiem ly trgng lir 23% den 34%), song GDP ddng gdp cho nen kinh te qudc dan lai la tir 47% d^n 48°'o Vdn dau tu khu X yc kinh te nhd nudc cd 1} trgng tii' 41 - 60% song chi ddng gdp vdo GDP xdi mirc lir 35 - 38%
Tuy nhien, neu nhin vdo mirc tang vdn dau tu giai doan 2001 - 2009 ihi thdy tdc ldng vdn dau tu cua khu vyc kinh te nhd nudc binh qudn chi la gan 8%) xa dang cd xu hudng gidm dan nhirng dd}' Id ngudn vdn tuang ddi dn dinh ft bj tdc dgng tir nhirng thay doi cua kinh te - xa hgi nude vd the gidi Vdn dau lu khu xyc ngoai nha nudc lang trung binh vdi mirc
15.4% va von khu vyc dau tu nudc ngoai tdng nhanh nhat vdi mire trung binh Id 22.3% vd xe xu the thi dang tang dan song nhung ngudn vdn lai de bi tdc dgng dnh hudng cua tinh hinh kinh te - xa hgi it ed tinh dn djnh Tinh hinh tang truang x on dau tu cua cdc khu vyc kinh te the hien qua bieu dd sau;
(4)c Sdi (90)-2011 3 NGHIEN CU'U TRAO OOI Vdn ddu tu td ngdn sdch
nhd nudc
Vdn dau tu tii' NSNN Id bg phan tuong ddi dn djnh vd cd vai trd quan trgng lao mdi trudng dau tu hap dan thu hut cdc ngudn von tir cdc thdnh phdn kinh te khdc Vdn dau tu nha nudc bao gdm ba bg phdn chfnh la: vdn ngan sach, vdn tfn dung nhd nude va x'dn dau lu tir cdc doanh nghiep nha nudc Tinh hinh huy dgng vdn dau tu tir cac bg phan giai doan 2001 - 2009 nhu sau:
Bieu va so lieu tren cho thay quy mo vdn dau tu ciia khu vuc kinh te nhd nude tang kha nhanh Nam 2009 tdng vdn dau tu nha nude da lang gap ban 2.8 ldn vdn ddu tu ndm 2001 Song neu phdn tich cy the, thi thay rang vdn dau tu tang them eua khu vyc kinh te nha nude giai doan 2001 - 2009 lai chu ydu la su tang len ciia bg phan von
tir ngan sdch nhd nudc Von
NSNN nam 2009 da gdp hon lan nam 2001 Trong vdn dau tu tii' tin dyng nha nudc chi tang them la 1.4 lan va vdn dau tu tir doanh nghiep nha nude thi tang 2.2 lan
Ve CO eau, von dau tu ttr khu vuc kinh te nhd nude dugc the hien bieu sau:
Bieu va sd lieu tren cho thay xu the cua co cdu von dau tu nha nudc giai doan
2001 - 2009, dd von ddu
tu ciia ngan sdch nhd nudc lien tuc ldng dan tir nam 2001 den
2009 Nam 2001 vdn NSNN chi chiem ty trgng 45%o long vdn dau tu eua khu vyc kinh te nha nude, song den 2009 ly trgng da lang len 64% Ngudn xon tin dyng dau lu ihi bien dgng theo xu the ngugc lai Nam 2001 ly trgng von tin dyng la 28% thi dSn nam 2009 chi cdn \4% vd vdn dau tu tir doanh nghiep nha nude cung cd xu hudng giam (liv 27% xuona v.)
Mpt so ddnh gid tu thuc trang huy dpng von ddu tu giai doqn 2001 - 2009
Huy dgng von dau tu 2001 - 2009 tang nhanh de thyc hien chinh sdch ldng trudng vd phdt trien kinh te nhanh, theo chieu rgng Thuc te lang trudng kinh
ti giai doan 2001 - 2009 da
lang luang ddi cao vdi trung binh Id 7.32%i Tuy nhien, vdn dau tu da tang nhanh hon toe ldng trudng kinh te (x'on dau lu tang binh qiuin \4% gap lan tdc lang trudng kinh te) " • • '
Ve xu hudng Mirc tang xdn dau tu nam 2009 so nam 2001 da gap 4.2 Idn, GDP nam 2009 so 2001 chl tang 3.4 lan Dieu dd cho thdy de tdng them mgt don vj GDP nam 2009 thi von dau tu da phai tang len cao ban mirc cua nam 2001
Ty trgng vdn dau lu so GDP cang lang Neu nam 2001 vdn dau tu huy dgng so GDP la 35% thi nam 2009 da ldng len mirc 43%o Vdn ddu
tu huy dgng cao thudng se lac dgng lam cho, hoac tieu dimg xa hgi se gidm, hoac sd ng quoc gia se tang va ed hai dieu deu tac dgng khong tot ldi tang truang dn dinh va ben vung ddi ban
Huy dgng vdn ddu tu tir khu vuc kinh te nha nude cd xu hudng gidm ty' trgng long von dau lu Nam 2001 von thugc khu vuc kinh te nha nudc chiem khoang 60% long vdn dau lu, song nam 2009 da gidm xuong mirc 41% Ngugc Iai, von dau tu lu nhan va vdn FDI thi cd xu hudng tang ly trgng
Neu so sdnh ly trgng GDP vd ly trgng vdn dau tu giai doan 2001 - 2009, thi vdn dau lu khu vyc kinh le nhd nude van chiem ty trgng rat ldn, binh quan la 47% so tong X'dn dau tu GDP cua khu vuc kinh te nha nude chi ddng gdp 37.5% long GDP ca nudc Khu vuc kinh te ngodi nhd nudc, vdn dau tu chiem ty trgng 33.4%) long vdn ddu tu song lai ddng gdp ldi 46.4% vao GDP ca nudc vd khu vuc vdn dau tu nudc ngoai, x'on ddu tu chiem 19.7%) vd ddng gdp tdi 16.1% vao GDP ea nudc Sd lieu cho ihay vdn dau tu khu vyc lu nhan Id cd hieu qua cao nhat viec tao GDP
Trong vdn dau lu cua khu vyc kinh le nha nudc thi x'on dau tu tir ngan sdch dang cd xu hudng tdng nhanh (nam 2001 chiem ly trgng 45% tdng
(5)NGHIEN CU'U TRAO DOI ( Sol (90)-2011 )
vdn dau tu nha nudc nhung nam 2009 da chiem tdi 64%) vd ngugc lai xon dau tu tir tfn dung nhd nudc xa xon ddu tu tir cac doanh nghiep nha nudc dang thu hep lai Day cd the la nguyen nhan quan trgng han che boat dgng kiem soat gidm sat viec sii dyng x'dn va x'd} hieu qua vdn dau tu nha nude dang cd xu hudng giam dan
Mot so djnh huong va giai phap huy dong von giai doan 2011-2020
Giai doan 2011 - 2020 chinh sach phat trien kinh le cua Viet nam theo du thao x'e chici" !^vC phat trien kinh te xa hgi thi kinh le \'iet nam se x iia phdi tang truang nhanh x ira phai tdng iruong ben xirng Neu lai ihdi diem nd}' de ddnh gid thi cd the nhan dinh la x'e ngan va trung ban (5 nam tdi) kinh te Viet nam se van phdt trii^n theo chieu rgng xi nhung dieu kien cho phdt trien ben vung X'd on dinh chua dugc khdng djnh mgt each chdc chan Dieu cd ngliTa Id muon cd tdng iruong cao thi X'dn phai lang xon dau ur Tir thuc trang huy dgng vdn nam 2001 - 2(^09 X'd di cd du x'on cho ldng truong kinh te mgt sd djnh hudng vd giai phap huy dgng xdn tdi nam 2020 la:
Miic hu} dgng xdn cho dau tu phat trien phai giii luong ling xdi miic hii} dgng binh qudn giai doan 2001 -2010 la khoang 40 - 410/o vi irong giai doan trudc mat vdn
dau lu vdn la ngudn lyc quan trgng nhat cho ldng truong xa phat irien kinh te
Tiep tuc thyc hien co' che khu}en khich ddu tu lir khu xyc kinh le ngodi nhd nudc kinh te cd xdn dau tu nudc ngodi giam dau tu lir khu x yc kinh te nha nudc Mo' rgng hinh thuc ddu tu su dung xdn lien ket giiia Nhd nudc va cac chu ddu lu lu nhan chii dau lu tryc tiep nudc ngodi Tu}' nhien ddi xdi ddu tu tryc liep nudc ngodi khong nen chay iheo sd lugng xdn dau tu sd lugng dy an md nen can nhdc chgn Igc nhivng div dn cd cong nghe lien tien dam bao x'e lieu chuan mdi trudng cdc dy dn ma chu dau lu nudc khd cd dieu kien thyc hien
Phan loai cu the danh muc cdc cdng trinh dau lu edng xd nhd nudc chi thuc hien dau tu X'do nhung cong trinh thuc su quan trgng cdng trinh thugc ITnh vyc an ninh qudc phdng cdn nhung cdng trinh khdc nen md' rgng de cac thdnh phdn kinh te khdc cimg tham gia
Vdn ddu lu khu xyc kinh le nhd nudc, nen giam dan bg phdn xdn dau tu tir ngan sdch nhd nudc tang x'on dau tu tir tin dyng nha nudc va X'dn ddu tu tir cdc doanh nghiep Mo rgng quyen lu chju trach nhiem x'e sir dung xon xa ket qud boat dgng kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep
Rd sodt lai xan de phan cap giua trung uong vd dia
phuong quan ly xon dau tu trdnh dan trai triing lap cdc du dn dau tu lang phi ngudn xdn
Hoan thien he thdng phdp 1} cho boat dgng cua thi trudng trdi phieu ciing nhu tbi Inrdng co phieu de tao dieu kien thuan lgi eho cdc doanh nghiep hu}' dgng vdn tren thi Irudng xdn thi trudng chirng khodn phuc vy ddu lu vd phdt trien siin xudl kinh doanh
Tang cirdng cdng tdc kiem soat vd gidm sat tinh hinh huy dgng vd sir dung von nhat la xdn lir ngan sdch nhd nude de dam bdo sir dyng dung myc dich X d cd hieu qua cao
Klim'en khich cdc hinh thirc ddu tu theo hinh thiic BOT BT, BTO , thuc hien minh bach chinh sdch cdi each thu tuc hdnh chinh, khdng phan biet ddi xir, lich cyc Irien khai cdc bien phdp chdng that thoat, lang phi vd tham nhiing, thuc hien liet kiem vd nang cao hieu qua ddu lu xay dyng
Tich cyc khai thdc cac ngudn lyc til' tdi nguyen, cdng san, dac biet la ngudn lue tir dat dai de phuc xu cho dau tu phdi trien
Phdi hgp chat che viec trien khai thyc hien cdc chinh sach xe tai khda xa tien te dam bao dn djnh kinh te xT md tao dieu kien cho thyc hien lot cac chuong trinh x'e hu} dgng X'dn dau tu cdc chuang trinh, ke hoaeh ve ddu lu xd} dung lirng thai ky