Viet Nam cd thg chuyen sang giai doan xuat sigu nhu cac nudc di trudc, chiing ta khdng thg khdng ttai qua thdi ky tich IGy vdn, thu hiit diu tu ttong va ngoai nudc kem theo nhu cau n[r]
(1)i NHQNGMitngXudn Tdn Mdo VAN DE KINH TE VT MO BIEN DONG
can can t o a n l VA VAN D £ NHAP KHAU
*LAM PHAT O VIET NAM
4 - ^ «IF%
Ket thuc ndm 2010, nhCrng ddu hieu khoi phyc kinh tetodn cdu ddu tien dd bdt ddu xud't hien Kinh te Viet Nam trdi qua mgt ndm vdi rdt nhieu khd khdn boi cdnh nin kinh leva chfnh trj todn cdu cd nhieu bdt on vd nhOng khd khdn ndy cdng bj Idm tram trgng them bdi dnh hi/dng cua thien tai tac
dgng cua bien doi khf hdu todn cau Virgt len ta't cd khd khdn, nen kinh te Vi$t Nam dd ve dich vdi toe tang trirdng kinh le dn tv/gng 6,78% Tuy nhiin, nen kinh tS'cdn tiem d'n nhieu vd'n de bdt d'n vdi thdm hyt thirong mgi tang eao, ddu
hr ni/de ngodi tang chdm, dy trCr ngogi hdi xuo'ng thdp vd ty le Igm phdt cho so' dgt bdi todn nan gidi cho ede nhd hogch djnh chfnh sdeh Trong «Thdng diep ddu ndm cua Thu tudng", Thu h/dng Nguyen Tdn Dung dd khang djnh on djnh kinh te vT md, kiem che Igm phdt Id nhiem vy trgng tam eua ndm 2011 Bdi Viet ndy se phdn tfch mgt so' nhdn to' quye't djnh de'n thdnh cdng
cua Chfnh phu viec thyc hien myc tieu kiem che Igm phdt ngan hgn vd trung hgn
PGS., TS Nguyen Dinh Tho *
^ \ \
-Vu0 len tat ca kho khan, nam 2010 nen kinh ti' Viet Nam da dat tdc tang trudng an tugng 6,78%
1 Nhap khau lam phat va bai hoc tCr lam phat nam 2007 - 2008
Nam 2008, lam phat ciia Viet Nam len tdi miic ky luc 23,1% Ben canh cac tic ddng tieu eye tang trudng tin dung ndng thi bien ddng gia ca hang hda the gidi va ehinh sich ty gii ngoai hdi cua Viet Nam la mdt phin nguyen nhan din tdi nhap khaii lam phit va lam cho lam phit cua Viet Nam cao gap lan so vdi cic nuoc khic ttong khu vyc
Tir nim cudi nam 2007 tdi diu nam 2008, gii ca cic loai hang hda tren the gidi da tang nhanh ty le nghich vdi sy mat gii danh nghia ciia ddng
Oai hoc Ngoai thirong
(2)MitngXudn Tdn Mdo
^ N H Q N G VAN DE KINH TE VT MO
Hinh 1: Lam phat cua Viet Nam va cac nuo-c (% so voi cung kj nam truwc)
Nguon: ABB, Tong cue Thdng ke cdc nudc
Hinh 2: Bien dong ty gia danii ngliTa so vai USD (1/2005 -1/2008; 1/2005 = 1)
Ngudn: Tdc gid tinh todn dua tren so lieu ciia IMF Hinh 3: Bien dong gia Immg thyc tinh theo noi te (1/2005 - 1/2008)
-Viet Nam Trung Quoc TTiai Lan My (NEER) My
y
Ngudn: Tdc gid tinh todn dim tren sd lieu ciia IMF
USD diy mat bing gii nguyen nliien vat lieu diu vao dac biet la ciu tlTc\ len cao gip dgn lan so vdi nam 2003 (jii diu lua da tang tir53.4 USD/thiing thing 01/2007 len 89.4 USD/thiing thing 12/2007 va dat dinh mdi 125,96 USD/thiing vao 09/5/2008 Tdc tang gii nang lugng, vadac biet la gia luang thyc ttong giai doan la nguyen nhan din tdi tinh ttang lam phit tten dien rdng d tit ca cac nudc tten thi gidi DSn cudi nam 2007, lam phat so vdi ciingky nam trudc cua Viet Nam la 12,63% va dgn thing 4/2008, ty le da la 21,42% Nhin vao Kinh 1, cd thg nhan thiy ty le lam phat eua Viet Nam ludn cao ban gap ddi miic lam phat eiia cac nudc ttong khu vyc Tic ddng ciia lam phat chi phi day d Viet Nam thudng cao ban gap ddi cac nudc khac khu vyc la Viet Nam thyc thi chinh sach neo gii dong ndi te vdi USD' Cic nudc ttong khu vyc nhu Malaysia va Thii Lan theo dudi chinh sich tha ndi cd dieu tigt ddng ndi te va da dieu chinh Ign gia ndi te theo gia tri danh nghTa ciia ddng USD ttong thdi gian Kg caTmng Qudc la nudc cd nhieu digm tirong ddng ttong viec thyc thi chinh sich ty gii vdi Viet Nam ciing da dieu chinh Ign gii danh nghia ndi te Kgt qua la ttong khoang thdi gian tir thing 1/2004 dgn diu nam 2008, d&ig Viet Nam cd xu hudng mit gii danh nghTa, ttong cic ddng tign cua cic nudc khic ttong khu vyc cd xu hudng len gia danh nghia so vdi ddng USD (Hinh j
Gii hang hda nguygn lieu ttgn thg gidi tang manh thdi gian la tang trudng ciu thg gidi tang nhanh hon tdc tang cung vdi bang chiing la lugng hang tdn kho hang hda nguygn heu giam manh Ddng USD mit gia danh nghia lam cho gii hang hda tinh theo ddng tien khic nhu EUR, GBP giam tuong ddi va cang khuyen khich ciu Ben canh dd, cic quy diu tu ttgn thg gidi gia tang mua hang hda de phdng ve rui ro mat gii USD Kgt qua la gia hang hda nguygn lieu tang Ign cao ban muc binh thudng, tang
(3)MitngXudn Tdn Mdo NHIJNG VAN DE KINH TE VT MO
tang cau va tang USD mit gii Cic nudc khu vyc cd digu chinh nang gia ndi te tuong irng vdi mire mat gii danh nghTa cua My (do bang chi sd ty gii hieu luc danh nghia NEER) se digu chinh giam dugc tic ddng tang gii mit gii ddng USD
Hinh minh hga miic bign ddng gia
luong thyc theo ngi te ciia cac nudc so vdi gii danh nghTa ciia ddng USD va ty gia hieu luc danh nghia (NEER) Cd thg' nhan thay, gii luong thyc thg gidi tinh theo VND cao ban muc gii tinh theo USD ddng Viet Nam mit gia so vdi USD Gii luong thyc theo Bat va Nhin dan te cdn cd phan re hon muc ty gii hieu lye danh nghia (NEER) cua My Chinh nhd chinh sich ty gii linh boat, Thii Lan va Tmng Qudc giam dugc tic ddng sde gii luong thyc tir nudc ngoai Viet Nam thi hanh chinh sich neo ty gia va vi vay, da nhap khau lam phit gii luang thyc theo USD Diy cd thg la nguygn nhan chinh lam cho lam phit d Viet Nam cao ban cic nudc khu vyc
2 Ljch su lap lai nhap khau lam phat va tam quan cua bien dong can can toan
Nam 2010 ty le lam phat 11,75% Mac dii theo ude tinh cua Tdng cue Thdng kg, yeu td tign te ddng gdp tdi 4,65% vao ty le lam phat, nhung Thdng dde Ngin hang Nha nudc van khang dinh yeu td tign te khdng phai la nguyen nhan chu yeu Dau la cau tii ldi dung cho van dg lam phit d Viet Nam nam 2010 va cin phai rut kinh nghiem gi ttong viec kigm chg ty le lam phit nam 2011? Can khing dinh nhap khau lam phit se vin la thach thiK Idn ngu gia cahang hda thg gidi tang nhanh eau thg gidi phuc hdi sau khiing hoang va Viet Nam van budc phai i*ia gia tign ddng dudi tie ddng cua tham hut can can loan tdng the
Cd thg ndi, nam 2010 tdc tang trudng tin dung khdng qui cao so vdi miic trung binh cua cic nam trudc va
thip hon nhieu so vdi nam 2007 ya diy la nguygn nhan cd nhigu y kien cho ring yeu td tign te khdng phai la nguyen nhin edt ygu cua lam phit d Viet Nam nam 2010
Cho den thang 7/2010, nhin chung lam phat van dirge kiem soat muc dir kie'n - 8%, nhien, bien dgng tang gia ca hang hda the gidi va anh hirdng cua pha gia tien dong dudi tac dgng ciia bien dong can can toan qudc te nhirng thang cudi nam da pha tan nd lire kiem che lam phat ciia Chinh phii
Mac dii thim hut cin cin thuong mai Viet Nam nam 2010 ude tinh la 12,4 ty USD thap hon nhigu so vdi mire tham hut thuong mai hon 14 ty USD cua nam 2007 va 2008, tdc tang trudng giai ngan vdn dau tu tryc tigp va giin dgp nudc ngoai giam manh dudi tic ddng ciia khung hoang kinh tg thg gidi la nguygn nhan tryc tigp dan tdi viec suy giam va thim hut cin cin tdng thg giai doan tir 2008 - 2010 Dy trir ngoai hdi chinh thuc giam manh
dudi tic ddng cua thim hut cin cin tdng the gay ap lye tryc tigp Ign pha gii dgn ddng va giy ngn tac ddng tang gia kep d Viet Nam (Hinh 4)
Trong 25 nam ddi mdi va mdcua kinh tg, tdc tang truong xuat khau tmng binh ciia Viet Nam dat ttgn 20% la nhan td quan ttgng giiip Viet Nam tri tdc tang trucmg cao mdt thdi gian dai dat miic tmng binh khoang 7%/nam Khic vdi mdt sd nudc ASEAN nhu Singapore, Malay-sia, Thii Lan da ttai qua thdi ky tich tu tu ban nham tao lap vdn, Viet Nam dang d giai doan nudc nit nham tao lap vdn cho ngn kinh tg vdi tdc dau tu khdng ngirng tang len Ngu nam 1990, ty le diu tu ciia nen kinh ^ ttong GDP la 12,6%/nam, thi nam 1995 dat 27,1% GDP, nam 2000 dat 29,6% GDP, nam 2005 dat 35,6% GDP, va ky lye dat 41,7% GDP nam 2007
(Xem bdng 1) Chinh vi vay, trudc
Viet Nam cd thg chuyen sang giai doan xuat sigu nhu cac nudc di trudc, chiing ta khdng thg khdng ttai qua thdi ky tich IGy vdn, thu hiit diu tu ttong va ngoai nudc kem theo nhu cau nhap khau tang cao Vi vay, ttong giai doan 2001 - 2010, tdc tang trudng nhap khau hang nam, van tri d muc cao Hinh 4: Bien dong can can toan va ty le lam phat 2001 - 2010
100.0
IXuatkhau
iNhap khau
-"nijm hut thu'cmg mai -Can can tong the -DirtTU-ngoai hoi Lam phat (^o, phai)
60,0
40.0 20.0 0.0 -20.0
25.0 20.0
15.0
Ngudn: ADB, Tdng cue Thdng ki cdc nudc
(4)MitngXudn Tdn Mdo
1^ NHONG VAN DE KINH TE VT MO li
Bang 1: C a cSu tdng san pham quoc ndi tinh theo % GDP
Tdc tang trirdng Tieu dung tir nhan Tieu dung Chinh phii Tiet kiem nirdc Dau tuf (Tao lap vdn) Xuat khau rdng
ICOR-1990 5,1 84,8 12,3 2,9 12,6 -9,2
2,5
1995 9,5 73,6
8,2 18.2 27,1 -9.1 2,9
2000
6,8 66,5
6,4 27,1 29,6
-2,5 4,4
2005 8.4 63,5
6,2
30,3
35,6
-4,2 4,2
2007
64,9
29.2 41,7 -13,4
4.9
2009
66,5 6,3
27,2
38,1 -10,4
7,5
tmng binh dat 19,2% Tham hut thucmg mai ttong giai doan trudc 2007 chii yeu dugc bii dip bdi thang dubang muc vdn ttgn cin can toin cjudc tg nhd tang trudng diu tutruc tigp va giin tigp Ke' tii nam 2008, khiing hoang tai ehinh toan cau da cd nhirng anh hudng tigu eye tdi tdc tang trudng ludng vdn diu tu nudc ngoai vao Viet Nam va gay site ep lam phi gia tign ddng
Neu lay tdng kirn ngach xuit nhap khau so vdi GDP lam thudc ve muc boi nhap va phu thudc cua ngn kinh tg Viet Nam so vdi nen kinh tg the gidi, thi Viet Nam la mdt
nhirng nudc cd muc hdi nhap kinh tg qudc tg cao nhat so vdi cic nudc ttong ASEAN cung nhu ttgn thg gidi Ngu nhu nam 1990, tdng kim ngach xuat khiu cua Viet Nam so vdi GDP la 36%, thi den nam 2010 sd la 78,8% GDP Cung ttong thdi ky tdng kim ngach nhap khau cua Viet Nam so vdi GDP tang tii 45,3% Ign 80,1% GDP So vdi cic nudc ASEAN va Tmng Qudc, Viet Nam la mdt ttong nhung nudc cd muc hdi nhap va phu thudc ciia ngn kinh te thg gidi bang tdng kim ngach xuit nhap khau d mite cao nhat, tang tir 97% GDP nam 1998 len 150% nam
Ngudn: ADB, Tong cue Thdng ke
2010 vdi tdc tang trudng thuong mai nhanh nhit so vdi cac nudc khu vyc nhu Indonesia, Philippin, Thii Lan va Tmng Qudc
Phin tich ca ciu thi trudng xuat khiu cua Viet Nam cd thg nhan thay, ttong nam 2010, nam thi trudng xuat khiu chinh la My, EU, ASEAN, Nhat Ban, Trung Qudc da chigm tdi 71% tdng khdi lugng hang hda xuat khau ciia Viet Namf/fzn/z 5) Ckc mat hang chii luc xuat khau vao thi trudng My la giay dep, hang det may va eac san pham vg gd; vao EU la gay dep, hang det may vahai san; vao ASEAN ladlu thd va gao; vao Nhat Ban la diu thd; Hinh 5: Co cau thi truwng xuat khau cua Viet Nam
nam 2010
Hinh 6: Co- cau thj trirdng nhap khau cua Viet Nam nam 2010
Trung Quoc 10%
EU 16%
Nhat Ban 11%
ASEAN 14%
^^^H 35% ^^^^M
Nhat Ban ^ 1 %
K
Han Quoc 1 %
Trung Quoc ^ 24%
ASEAN 19%
Nguon: Tdng cue Thdng ke 24 Tapchiflganhang so2o3/20ll
(5)- V
Hinh 7: Bien dong ty gia VND so voi USD va cac nuwc khac (1 - 11/2010)
109
104
99
94
89
—• •Viet Nam Nhat Ban
—•— Trung Quoc VND-JPY — A —
VND-CNY Thai Lan ,
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10 11
Nguon: Tdc gid tinh todn dua tren sd lieu cua Reuters vao Tmng Qudc la cao su
Thi trudng nhap khai cila Viet Nam cung tap tmng cao d ci^ thi trudng chinh nhu ASEAN, Trung Qudc, Han Qudc, Nhat Ban (Hinh 6) Ckc thi trudng chigm tdi 65% tdng kim ngach nhap khau Cic mat hang nhap khau ehu yeu tir cac nudc ASEAN la xang dau cac loai, may mdc thigt bi phu tung, may vi tinh va Unh kien, chit deo nguygn lieu; tir Tmng Qudc la miy mdc thigt bi phu tiirg, sat thep va
Hinh 8: Tac dong ciia tang gia hang
vai; tir Han Qudc vaNbat Ban la miy mdc thigt bi phu tiing, sat thap Trong thuong mai ndi vung, nang liic sin xuit hang xuat khau cuaViet Nam cdn kem hon rd ret so vdi cic ddi thu canh ttanh So sinh vg quy md, Viet Nam ludn d ttang thai nhip sigu vdi cic nudc ASEAN va Tmng Qudc Hon niia, hamlugng giitri san xuat gia tang ttong hang hda nhap khau tir eac nuoc ASEAN, Tmng Qudc cao ban ban so vdi hang hda chiing ta xuit khau sang
hoa theo USD va mat gia tien dong
150
1 L
-130
120
110
100
80
* Viet Nam
— • — T a t c a hang hoa — • — N o n g san - - • — Phi nong san
• Kim loai
10 11 12
Ngudn: Tdc gid tinh todn diea tren s6 lieu cua Ngdn hdng Trung uang Austraha
Mitng Xudii Tdn Mdo NHQNG VAN DE KINH TE VT M ^
ASEAN va Tmng Qudc Hang hda nhap khau tir cic nudc ASEAN va Tmng Qudc chu ygu la miy mdc thet bi va nguygn lieu diu vao cho sin xuit Trong nam 2010 dudi ip luc cua can ein toin dign bign bit lgi giai doan 2008 - 2010, dy trir ngoai hdi cua Viet Nam bi suy giam nghigm ttgng din c5i ip lye pha gia ndi te Trong cac nudc khu vyc nhu Thii Lan, Tmng Qudc va Nhat Ban nang gia ndi te Ign miic tuong ung la 9,7%, 4,4% va 9,5% va vin tn thang du thuong mai, Viet Nam da phi gia tign ddng 5,5% He qua la, tign ddng Viet Nam da mat gii gin 10% so vdi Nhan dan te va mat gia ban 15% so vdi Ygn Nhat Ban Mac dii vay, cin cin thuong mai song phuong cila Viet Nam vdi Trang Qudc va cic nudc ASEAN vin khdng dugc cai thien (Hinh 7)
Ngn kinh tg Viet Nam phu thudc nang ng vao nhap khau miy mdc, thigt bi, nguyen nhign vat lieu dau vao tir cic nude ttong khu vyc Do phan Idn hang hda nhap khau la dau vao thigt ygu phuc vu san xuat dip iing nhu cau ttong nudc va xuit khau, gii ca cac mat hang hda tang Ign, Viet Nam vin budc phai sii dung, din den d^' chi phi dau vao ttong nudc lam tang gii hang nudc va hang xuit khau Tinh ttang nhap khau lam phat dugc thg hien rd net qua nghign cuu bign dgng chi sd gia ca hang hda nhap khau ttong nam 2010
(6)Mitng Xudn Tdn Mdo
^ N H Q N G VAN DE KINH TE VT MO M
da khign lam phit d Viet Nam bign ddng ngoai kha nang kigm soit cua cic nha hoach dinh chinh sich Tic ddng tang gii hang hda theo USD dugc giam nhe d nhiing nudc oS ddng ndi te ign gia Trang Qudc vin kiem chg lam phit duge d mue khoang 5,5%, Thii Lan 2,8% va Malaysia 2%
3 Kien nghj giai phap on djnh kinh te vT mo va l<iem che lam phat d Viet Nam
Ngu xet ttgn md hinh tdng cau, tang xuat khau se lam tang GDP, nhung ddng thdi ciing keo theo tang nhap khau phuc vu xuat khau lam giam GDP Trgn thyc tg, chiing ta ludn d ttong tinh trang nhap sigu, ngn phan ddng gdp tryc tigp ciia khu vyc xuat nhap khau vao GDP la am Tuy nhign, xet ty ttgng hang hda nhap khau cua Viet Nam cd thg nhan thay phan Idn hang nhap khau la dg phuc vu san xuat va dugc bu dap bdi chi dau tu Bgn canh dd, sin xuat xiat khau tao cdng an viec lam giai quygt thu nhap cho mdt bd phan Idn dan sd va giin tigp ddng gdp vao GDP thdng qua chi tigu diing cua bg phin dan sd Hon nua, khu vyc san xuit ttong nudc cdn thu dugc lgi ich lan tda nhd vao viec chuygn giao cdng nghe thdng qua diu tu cila nudc ngoai va nang cao nang lye canh ttanh cua khu \yc Ddng thdi, thdng qua ap luc canh ttanh tir cic doanh nghiep nudc ngoai va khu vyc xuit khau nang ddng, nang lye canh ttanh cua khu vuc san xuat ttong nudc ciing dugc cai thiea
Dg giam tie ddng tigu cue ciia nhap khau lam phit, Chinh phu can thyc hien cac bien phip dg can bang can can toin thdng qua cai thien mdi trudng diu tu dg thu hiit ddng vdn nude ngoai va ban chg nhap Idilu tam thdi va thiic day xuat khau nhim muc dich giam tie ddng tryc tigp oia tham hut thuang mai tdi cin can toin Dg thyc hien dugc digu nay, Chinh phu cin phai phdi hpp ddng loat cic bien phip chinh ttong dd quan ttgng nhat la chinh sich ty gii va cai thien
hieu qua sii dung vdn diu tu Ddi vdi chinh sach A' gid: Trona thdi gian qua, Chinh phu da dieu hanh chinh sich ty gia theo hudng tich cue; md rdng bign dao ddng va cho phep ty gia USD/VND bign ddng theo hudng phii hgp vdi curg ciu ngoai hdi ttgn thi tradng ban Trong thdi gian tdi, Chinh phii can can nhae digu chinh ty gii theo mdt gid tign te cic ngoai te manh, ty chuyen ddi (USD, EUR, JPY GBP) cd tinh toan tdi ty ttgng thuong mai ciia Viet Nam vdi cic nudc/khdi nudc lign quan
Ddi vdi viec thu hiit vdn ddu he mtdc ngodi: Trong thdi gian qua vin cdn nhigu y kien ve mue tigu digu hanh kinh tg vT md Chinh phU can xic dinh cic muc tigu kinh tg vi md uu tign nhit Trong digu hanh chinh sich, khdng thg ciing mdt liic dat dugc tat ca cac muc tigu Ngu dua cic myc tigu ma khdng dat dugc, cic nha diu tu se mit niem tin vao nen kinh tg Viet Nam Ddi vdi cic nha diu tu nudc ngoai, dy doin trudc cickich ban kinh tg la ygu td quan ttgng nhat dg quygt dinh diu tu Vi vay, dn dinh kinh tg vT md can dugc xic dinh la muc tigu ttgng yeu, uu tign hang diu Thu hut dugc ludng vdn diu tu nudc ngoai bat diu quay ttd lai eac nudc ttong khu vyc se gdp phan cai thien can can toin qudc tg va giam ip lye phi gii tign ddng, nguygn nhin giy nhap khau lam phit d Viet Nam
Ddi vdi cdi thien hieu qud sie dung vdn: Day la muc tigu liu dai, nhung khdng kem phan quan ttgng Trong dai ban, giio due va y te ludn la muc tigu hang diu dg cai thien nang suat lao ddng va nang cao hieu qua sir dung vdn d tat ca cic nudc tten thg gidi Tuy nhign, ttong ngin ban, Chinh phu cin soit ning eao hieu qua chi tigu cdng, dac biet la chi diu tu Phan bd chi tieu edng can gan vdi ket qua diu thay vi kigm soit chi nhu hien Cin thyc hanh tigt kiem va chdng lang phi ttong sii dung ngan sich nha nudc ttgn ca sd khoin chi Chinh phu khdng ngn kigrn soit cic Miu vuc kinh tg tu nhin cd thg
quan ly hiai qua ban Chinl; nen quan ly khu vuc tunhan thon; a thue \a thuc hien ttich nhiem xa IT " ^ua cac doanh nghiep
Mdt Viet Nam tri dugc miic tham hut thuang mai tlilp tang cudng thu but dugc vdn diu tu nudc ngoai, giai quygt duwc vin dg cdng an viec lam va ' ^ dung dong bd cic giai phip dg on dinh kinh tg vi md Chinh phii se khdi phuc dugc nigm tin cua cic nha (6u tu, quan ly hieu qua chi tigu cdng, khuygn khich khu vyc tu nhin phit trign, ngn kinh te Viet Nam se tang trudng chit lugng va bgn viing H
' IVlqc da Viet Nam tuyen bo sU dung
chinh sach tygidlinh hoat, tren thuc teco the nhan thay chinh sach ty gid hien tai thien ve ty gid co dinh neo dong ngi te vai gid tii cua ddng USD Ki tie 01/01/2005 IMF da xep Igi che ty gid ciia Vet Nam tii che thd noicd qudn ly sang chedo ty gid neo gid tii noi te vai mot ngoai te
- ICOR duac xde dinh gdn diing bang luong ddu tu hang ndm chia cho toe tdng truong GDP thudng nien
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
1 Nguyen Dinh Tho, Chong lam phat d Viet Nam: Tim dung nguyen nhan mdi c6 giai phap tich eye Tap chi Cong San, 86 788,2008
2 Nguyen Dinh Tho, Xuat nhap khau va tang truong kinh te a Viet Nam, Tap chi Cgng San, So 798, 2009
3 Bao Anh, Lam phat 2010: Yeu to tien te khong phai la chii yeu? http://vneconomy.vn/201101010537 5966P0C6/lam-phat-2010-yeu-to-tien-te-khong-phai-la-chu-yeu.htm
4 TTXVN, T6ng cue Thdng ke: Yeu to tien te gop hon 4,6% vao ty le lam phat
http://vneconomy.vn/201012310520 30998P0C6/tong-cuc-thong-ke-yeu- to-tien-te-gop-hon-46-vao-ty-le-lam-phat.htm
5 Nguyen TSn Dung, Thong diep diu nam ciia Thii tirong (2011) http://vnexpress.net/GL/Xa-hoi/2011/01/3BA24FlJ
http://vneconomy.vn/201101010537 http://vneconomy.vn/201012310520 http://vnexpress.net/GL/Xa-hoi/2011/01/3BA24FlJ