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hoat dpng deu nham vao nhdng muc tieu khac nhau, nhung muc tieu chung nha't ciia ta't ca cac doanh nghiep chinh la viec tao ra gia tri cho cac nha dau tu, cung nhu td'i da hda gia [r]
(1)iMi NGHIEN cufu - TRAO DOI
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TS N g u y i n iVIinh Ha DHMdTP.HCM Ngo Thi iVIy Loan CTCP Cong Nghiep Vinh Tvfdng
roi da hoa gid tri doanh nghiep la muc tieu chung cua tat cd cdc doanh nghiep vd cdc hoat dong cua doanh nghiep cUng deu nhdm dat ditoic muc tieu d goc cdc CO dong, mot nhiing moi quan tdm hdng ddu Id mUc co tvCc cua CO phieu md ho dang ndm giit Ogoc dg nhd quan ly, mgt nhiing kho khdn ldn nhdt la viec ket hop tdi da hoa gid tri doanh nghiep vd dap iJCng mdi quan tdm cua CO dong ve co tiiCc cua co phieu Do do, nghien ciiu ndy se tap trung nghien clJCu chinh sdch CO tvCc (CSCT) tdc dong den gid tri doanh nghiep Viet Nam, dac biet Id cdc doanh nghiep niem yet giai doan viCa qua
Gidfi t h i e u
Muc tieu ciia bai viet nham nghien cdu mdi quan he gida CSCT va gia tri doanh nghiep, de gdi y CSCT phu hpp vdi tinh hinh tai chinh va nhdng muc tieu p h i t trien cua doanh nghiep Nghien cdu dupc thUc hien dUa vao so' lieu tren bao cao tai chinh, thdng bao chi tra cd tdc, ban cao bach cua 143 doanh nghiep niem yet tren thi trUdng chdng khoan (TTCK) Viet Nam cd chi tra cd tdc ba nam 2007-2009
Ket qua nghien cdu cho tha'y CSCT cu the la ty le chi tra cd tdc (DPS) t i e dpng dUcfng de'n gia tri doanh nghiep, nhUng hinh thdc chi tra cd tdc khdng t i e dpng den gia tri doanh nghiep
Cd sof ly t h u y e t
Ve chinh sdch co tiic: theo
Brigham va Houston (2003, trang 26) va Ross va cac ddng tac gia (2003, trang 606-609), CSCT I i mpt chinh sach an dinh mdc lpi nhuan sau thue cua doanh nghiep se dupc dem phan phdi nhu the nao, bao nhieu phan tram dupc gid lai de tai dau tu va bao nhieu dung de chi tra cd tdc cho cac cd ddng Vi the, CSCT se cd anh hudng de'n so' lupng vdn cd phan ca'u true vdn cua doanh nghiep (thdng qua lpi nhuan gid lai) va chi phi sd dung vdn ciia doanh nghiep Do ludng CSCT dUpc thUc hien nhu sau: (i) Ty le cd tdc (DPR/F): cd tdc tren menh gia la chi tieu r a t quan trpng ddi vdi nha dau td quan tam
tdi thu nhap td cd tdc; (ii) Ty sua't cd tdc (DPR/P)i bang cd tdc h a n g nam chia gia thi trudng hien tai ciia cd phieu Ty suat cd tdc phan anh so' tien mpt nha dau tu kiem ddpc chi tinh rieng cd tdc cua mot cd phieu phd thdng dda tren gia thi trUdng hien tai Ve phuang thiic chi trd co
tiic: thdng thudng cd ba
phuong thdc cp ban la bang tien mat, bang cd phieu hoac ket hpp gida tien mat va cd phieu
Vi xdc dinh gid tri doanh nghiep: moi doanh nghiep
hoat dpng deu nham vao nhdng muc tieu khac nhau, nhung muc tieu chung nha't ciia ta't ca cac doanh nghiep chinh la viec tao gia tri cho cac nha dau tu, cung nhu td'i da hda gia tri doanh
'http://www.investopedia.eom/terms/d/dividendpayoutratio.asp
(2)NGHIEN cufu-TRAO DOI
n g h i e p (Brealey va Myers -2 0 , t r a n g -2-2; B r i g h a m va Houston - 2003, t r a n g 16; Ross va cac ddng t a c gia -2003, t r a n g 11-12) Ddi vdi mpt d o a n h n g h i e p cd n i e m yet, gia t r i d o a n h nghiep^ b a n g gia t r i t h i trUdng (gia tri t h i trUdng ciia vdn cd dong) cpng gia t r i t h i trUdng cua k h o a n n p r d n g cpng gia t r i t h i trUdng cd p h i e u chuyen ddi - t r d t i e n va cac k h o a n tuong dUPng t i e n (Cash and equivalents) Cd mot d i n h n g h i a k h a c , gia t r i doanh n g h i e p ( F i r m Value)^ b a n g gia t r i t h i trUdng cua cd phieu cpng gia t r i t h i trUdng cua k h o a n n p t a i c h i n h r d n g Tdi da h d a lpi n h u a n ludn la mot t r o n g n h d n g muc t i e u cd b a n h a n g dau cua d o a n h nghiep Tuy n h i e n , t h e o Sartono (2001; t r i c h t r o n g Harjito va cac d d n g t i c gia, 2009), viec thUc h i e n muc
t i e u td'i da h o a lpi n h u a n , d o a n h n g h i e p ludn g a p p h a i n h d n g b a n che sau: (i) A n h hudng bdi viec dau cO cd phieu cua cac n h a dau co, cac n h a dau cot cd gang cho khdng cd sU k h a c gida ldi n h u a n dau tU n g a n h a n va dai h a n ; (ii) Khai niem lpi n h u a n dupc hieu la lpi n h u a n danh nghia tdi da hda hay la mdc lpi n h u a n dat dUpc; (iii) Riii ro quyet dinh, tdc la viec tdi da hda lpi n h u a n khdng quan t a m nhieu den rui ro, day cd the la mpt sai l a m ldn; (iv) Td'i da hda lpi n h u a n cd the thUc hien b a n g each gdi tien vao c i c quy dau tU cd phieu, chii sd hdu muon lai s u i t tien gdi cao td rui ro cao, vi vay gia tri t h i trUdng se giam va gia tri doanh nghiep cung se giam T r e n co sd n h d n g h a n che n h u neu t r e n , Sartono (2001) cho r a n g cac doanh nghiep se thUc h i e n muc tieu tdi da hda
gia t r i d o a n h n g h i e p t h d n g qua sd td'i da h d a lpi n h u a n ciia cac cd d d n g K h i gia cd p h i e u cua d o a n h n g h i e p t a n g t h i lpi n h u a n cua cac n h a dau tU cung se t a n g t h e o Gia t r i cua cac d o a n h n g h i e p n i e m y e t dUpc d a n h gia t h d n g qua gia cd p h i e u , cdn gia t r i cua n h d n g d o a n h n g h i e p k h d n g n i e m y e t se dupc d a n h gia t h d n g qua xu h u d n g t h i trUdng
Theo Keown, Scott va M a r t i n (2004; trich Harjito va c i c ddng t i c gia, 2009), c i c bien dinh lupng cd the dung de Udc lupng gia tri doanh nghiep n h u sau: (i) Gia tri sd sach cua doanh nghiep (Book Value - BV) b a n g tdng tai s a n t r d tdng tai s a n vd h i n h t r d tdng np; (ii) G i i thi trUdng doanh nghiep (Company Market Price - MP): gia thi trUdng cua cd phieu la mpt phucfng p h a p de Udc t i n h gia tri rong cua doanh nghiep Neu cd phieu dupc niem yet TTCK va dupc giao dich mpt each rpng r a i t h i gia tri doanh nghiep cd the dupc xac dinh dUa vao gia thi trUdng Viec xac dinh gia tri doanh nghiep thdng qua gia tri thi trudng phu hpp de Udc lupng nhdng doanh nghiep ldn va n h d n g gia tri cd the n h a n h chdng t h a y ddi; (iii) T h a m dinh gia tri doanh nghiep: doanh nghiep dUa vao n h d n g t h a m dinh vien dpc
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(3)t i ^ NGHIEN cufu - TRAO DOI
lap se cho p h e p giam thieu sU chenh lech gida g i i t r i t h i trUdng va g i i t r i sd s i c h neu gia tri doanh nghiep gia t a n g Su c h e n h lech dupc tao r a k h i doanh nghiep mua t a i s a n d mdc g i i tri cao hcfn t r e n gia t r i sd sach cua t a i s a n do; (iv) Ddng t i e n ky vpng: g i i tri dupc sd dung sap n h a p hay mua lai Gia t r i h i e n t a i cua ddng t i e n dupc xac dinh se la td'i da va p h a i dupc t r a bdi doanh nghiep muc tieu
Cdc yeu td tdc dong den gid tri doanh nghiep
Ca'u true vdn t i e dpng den gia tri doanh nghiep: Ross va cac ddng t i c gia (2003, trang 569) cho rang ty le np t r e n vdn chu sd hOfu dat dUpc tdi Uu g i i tri cua doanh nghiep dUpc tdi da v6i chi phi sd dung vdn nhd nha't Gia tang ty le np tren vdn chii scf hOfu doanh nghiep cd lpi nhuan se gia tang lpi nhuan cua cd ddng, nhUng cung gia tang rui ro (Ross va cic ddng tac gia - 2003, trang 586) Lasher (2003) trich Rayan (2008), k h a n g dinh rang tang ty le np cd the d i n den tang lpi nhuan t r e n mdi cd phieu (EPS) va lpi nhuan t r e n vdn chu sd hdu (ROE) Fama va French (2002) ket luan rang cd mdi quan he ty-le thuan gida np va lpi nhuan ciia doanh nghiep Anup va Suman (2010) cho tha'y ca'u true vdn lam thay ddi gia tri cua cd ddng Arsiraphongphisit va Ariff (2004) tim thay g i i tri ciia doanh nghiep se thay ddi
khi ca'u true vdn tUcfng ddi thay ddi td 10-40%
Don baj^ tai chinh t i c dpng den g i i tri doanh nghiep: doanh nghiep co lpi nhuan la doanh nghiep cd k h a nang kiem dupc lpi nhuan (trUdc thue v i lai) cao hofn khoan np t r a tien lai Nghien cdu ve mdi quan he gida ddn bay tai chinh va g i i tri doanh nghiep cd nhieu ket luan k h i c Sharma (2006) cho tha'y cd sU tUPng quan gida ddn can np va gia tri doanh nghiep, Rayan (2008) tim tha'y ddn bay tai chinh cua doanh nghiep t i c dpng am den gia tri doanh nghiep va Nguyen Minh Ha (2010b) d i tim tha'y ddn can np cd mdi quan he nghieh chieu vdi t i n g trUdng doanh nghiep NgUpc lai, Anup va
Suman (2010) tim thay sU thay ddi cua ddn bay tai chinh lam t a n g gia tri doanh nghiep Tuy nhien, Bhayani (2009) nghien cdu cic doanh nghiep n g a n h xi m a n g d An Dp va cho t h a y don bay tai chinh khong cd t i c dpng den g i i tri doanh nghiep Miller va Modgiliani (1963) cho rang viec sd dung np cao se gia t i n g rui ro va chi phi sd dung vdn Do dd, ty le n p cao se k h d n g l a m t a n g g i i t r i doanh nghiep vi chi phi sd dung np re hcfn, lai vay se dupc t r a b a n g chinh lpi n h u a n cd dupc td viec sd dung vdn vay dd Neu doanh nghiep bi d a n h thue thu n h a p , viec sd dung vdn vay (np) se lam t a n g gia t r i doanh n g h i e p vi chi phi t r a lai vay se la cof sd
(4)NGHIEN cufu - TRAO DO! s I
de kha'u t r d thue thu n h a p cho doanh nghiep
B e n c a n h cau t r u e vdn va ddn b a y t a i c h i n h t a c dpng den gia t r i d o a n h n g h i e p , CSCT cung t i e d p n g de'n gia t r i doanh n g h i e p
Mdi quan he giUa CSCT vd gid tri doanh nghiep
Cd nhieu quan diem k h a c ve CSCT va sU t i c dpng cua CSCT den gia t r i doanh nghiep Cd quan diem cho r a n g CSCT va g i i tri doanh nghiep k h d n g t i c dpng den nhau, CSCT k h d n g lien quan viec x i c dinh g i i t r i doanh nghiep Cd quan diem lai cho r a n g CSCT cd t a c dpng den gia t r i doanh nghiep
Theo Miller va Modigliani (1961), mpt t h i trUdng hoan hao (thi trUdng k h d n g CO thue, khdng cd chi phi p h a t h a n h , chi phi giao dich chdng k h o a n va chi phi t h d n g tin) CSCT khdng a n h hudng den gia tri vdn cd p h a n cua cd ddng Gia dinh ccf b a n ciia quan diem n a y la cac quyet dinh dau tU cua doanh nghiep khong chiu a n h hudng cua CSCT Khi dd chinh s i c h dau tu cua doanh nghiep la dieu quan trpng nha't vi nd quyet dinh dong thu n h a p tuong lai cua doanh nghiep, dong thu n h a p dupc p h a n chia gida cd tdc va thu n h a p gid lai nhU the nao k h d n g quan trpng Miller va Modigliani (1961) da k e t luan r a n g vdi b a t ky CSCT nao, t d n g gia t r i t a i s a n ciia doanh
nghiep (hay gia tri doanh nghiep) la k h d n g t h a y ddi Walter (1963), Gordon (1963), L i n t n e r (1956) da lap luan ngUpc lai vdi Miller va Modigliani (1961) T r e n thUe t e n h d n g gia dinh dupc neu bdi Miller va Modigliani (1961) k h d n g tdn t a i Mpt k h d n g t d n t a i n h d n g gia dinh h a n che t r o n g md h i n h Miller v i Modigliani (1961) thi CSCT cua mpt doanh nghiep se t r d n e n quan t r p n g hcfn vi nd cd t h e t i e dpng den gia t r i doanh nghiep
H a u h e t cac md h i n h n g h i e n cdu thuc n g h i e m trUdc day da k e t luan ty le chi t r a co tdc cd a n h hudng de'n gia tri doanh nghiep G r a h a m va Dodd (1934) trich td Kelly (1974) da
n g h i e n cdu md h i n h hdi qui va n h a n t h a y he so' ty le cd tdc cd y n g h i a ve m a t t h d n g ke ldn h d n lpi n h u a n gid lai G r a h a m va Dodd (1934), H a r k a v y (1953), J o h n s o n , Shapiro va O'Meare (1951), Myron Gordon (1962) trich t d Kelly (1974) da xay ddng md h i n h hdi quy nhU sau:
P = a + b^D + b^R + e (1) Trong dd: P la g i i t r i t h i t r u d n g ciia mdi cd phieu, D la cd tdc t r e n mdi cd phieu, Rj la lpi n h u a n gid lai t r e n mdi cd phieu va e la sai so'
(5)I l l I NGHIEN cufu - TRAO DOI
cua r u i ro d e n gia cd phieu; k h d n g x e m x e t sU a n h h d d n g cua td'c dp t a n g trUdng d e n gia cd phieu; k h d n g cd sU sai lech cua cac h e so h d i quy cac v a n de ve ludng lpi n h u a n dUa t r e n dd lieu ke t o a n
Mo h i n h de x u a t
Td cac md h i n h n g h i e n cdu t r e n , n h d m t i c gia da de xua't md hinh:
g a n nha't ciia cd phieu dd Mpt doanh n g h i e p co gia t h i trUofng ciia cd phieu cao hcfn gia t r i ghi sd t h i day la da'u hieu cho t h a y d o a n h n g h i e p l a m a n k h i tdt, t h u n h a p t r e n t a i s a n cao; ty so' n a y cang cao c h d n g td t h i trUdng cang cd xu h u d n g t i n n h i e m doanh n g h i e p dd Cdng t h d c x i c dinh la:
PBV = gia cd phieu (Stock Price)/gia t r i sd s i c h (3)
PBV = a^ + a^DPR + a^DPM (2) Do lUdng hien doc lap
Trong dd: PBV la g i i tri doanh nghiep; DPR (Dividend Payout Ratio) la ty le chi t r a cd tdc; DPM la each thdc chi t r a cd tdc, la bien gia
Ngoai r a de kiem scat t i c dpng ciia cac yeu td k h a c len bien phu thupc, cac bien kiem soat gdm bien gia ve thdi gian va mpt so' bien khac dUpc sd dung n h u don bay tai chinh (DFL), lpi n h u a n t r e n mdi cd phieu (EPS), lpi n h u a n t r e n vdn chu sd hdu (ROE), va quy md doanh nghiep (SIZE)
Do ludng hien phu thuoc
Bien phu thupc PBV, dupc b a n g ty so' gida gia t r i t h i trUdng so vdi gia t r i sd sach PBV dupc sd dung de so s a n h gia ciia mpt cd phieu so vdi g i i tri ghi sd cua cd phieu (Harjito va ddng t i c gia, 2009) Chi sd n a y dupc t i n h t o a n b a n g c i c h lay gia ddng cda h i e n tai cua cd phieu chia cho gia tri ghi sd t a i quy
DPR the hien ddng tien cd dinh so vdi sd tien bd ra, dd nd rat quan trpng ddi vdi nha dau tu quan tam tdi thu nhap td cd tdc cua cd phieu Nd cho phep so sanh lupng tien thu dupc dau tu mpt sd tien cd dinh vao cac cd phieu khac hoac so sanh vdi hinh thdc dau tU khac Ky vpng cua nghien ciiu la bien quan he ddng bien vdi gia tri doanh nghiep Cong thdc xac dinh la: DPR= cd tdc/menh gia (%)
DPM la bien gia, bien cd gia tri la neu doanh nghiep chi tra cd tdc bang tien mat, ngUpc lai cd gia tri la Ddi vdi each thdc chi tra cd tdc, chUa cd ly thuyet nao de cap den quan he gida each thdc chi tra cd tdc va gia tri doanh nghiep Theo t i e gia, each thdc chi tra cd tdc ciia doanh nghiep c6 quan he vdi gii tri doanh nghiep
Do ludng hien kiem soat
t a i s a n (Total Assets: TA) DFL = TD/ TA
E P S = dpi n h u a n r d n g - co tdc cua cd phieu Uu dai) t r e n khdi lupng cd phieu b i n h quan ky
ROE ludng k h a n a n g sinh lpi t r e n mdi ddng vdn chu sd hdu cCia doanh nghiep ROE b a n g lpi n h u a n r o n g t r e n von chu sd hdu
Quy md doanh nghiep (SIZE): dupc ludng b a n g gia tri logarit ciia tdng t a i san SIZE b a n g log (tdng tai san doanh nghiep) Chi tieu dupc Olsen v i Elango (2005) sd dung xem xet t i c dpng cua quy md t i i san doanh nghiep den g i i tri doanh nghiep Ben canh do, logarit (tdng tai s a n doanh nghiep) cdn dupc dung de d i n h gia t i c dpng cua quy md t a i s a n de'n t a n g trddng doanh nghiep cac n g h i e n cdu cua Evans (1987), Hall (1987), Dunne va Hughes (1994), Nguyen Minh Ha (2010b) Log (sale) va log (san lupng) dupe dung de xem xet t i c dpng cua quy md tai san doanh nghiep den hieu qua doanh nghiep nghien cdu cua Majumdar (1997) va Wing va Yiu (1995) Do dd, quy mo dUpc lay logarit de nghien cdu t i e dpng ciia quy mo den hidu qua, t a n g trUdng, gia tri doanh n g h i e p
DFL dupc ludng b a n g tdng (Mdi doc gid xem tiep Jty sau ) np (Total Debt: TD) t r e n tdng
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