nhung tdc do phye hdi rat cham va dang chju anh hudng eiia nhiing bien ddng cua thi trudng the gidi, nhit la su tri tre cdn ed the keo dai trong nam 2010. Nhilu doanh nghiep da phye h[r]
(1)VIET NAM - CAI CACH VA HOI NHAP
Hu'O'ng SLF phat trien thj tru'O'ng tai chinh
Viet Nam vao muc tieu tai cau true nen kinh te
TS TRAN DU LICHThe gidi dang budc vdo thdi ky "hdu khiing hodng" Mdt cugc chay dua giica cdc nin kinh te de tim ca hdi vd vi the mdi dang dien a hdu het cdc chdu luc Nhiiu nd luc di tdi cdu true cdc dinh chi tdi chinh qudc ti dang dugc nhiiu qudc gia theo dudi; cdc nin kinh te "mdi ndi" dang ngdy cdng cd vai trd quan trgng cdc dinh chi kinh ti, tdi chinh chinh qudc ti, nhdt Id nhdm qudc gia tham gia vdo G20; nhiiu nudc dang nd luc tdi cdu triic thi chi tdi chinh - tin dung nudc de thich nghi vdi thi trudng tdi chinh the gidi giai dogn mdi Nhin chung, budc vdo ndm 2010 ngudi ta ky vgng vi budc khdi ddu cho thdi ky hinh thdnh "mdt trgt tu mdi" ddi vdi thi trudng tdi chinh thi gidi, ke cd su chuyin vi cdc trung tdm tdi chinh qudc te Trong bdi cdnh nhu vdy, cdn nhin lgi thi trudng tdi chinh nudc ta ndm qua - giai dogn chdng da vdi nhicng tdc ddng tieu cue ciia cudc khiing hodng tdi chinh vd suy thodi kinh ti todn cdu - di nhdn dien nhiing vdn di dang ddt ra; ddng thdi hudng su phdt triin cua nd vdo muc tieu tdi cdu true vd chuyen ddi md hinh tdng trudng kinh te Tren tinh thdn do, nghien cicu ndy se ludn bdn ba vdn di sau day:
I Chinh sach tai chinh - tien te boi
canh tac dong ciia khung hoang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh te toan can giai doan 2008 -2009: tyu va ton tai dan xen
Chiu tac ddng ciia cudc khiing hoang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh te toan cau ciing vdi nhiing tdn tai, yeu kem ngi tai ciia nin kinh tl, nam qua tinh hinh kinh te vT md nudc ta da ed nhiing dau hieu thieu on dinh Chi rieng tir dau nam 2008 den dau nam 2009 da cd lin thay ddi quan trgng ve chinh sach va myc tieu phat trien kinh te:
ijy vien Uy ban Kinh te Quoc hpi
-I- Dung trudc ap luc lam phat, ma dau hieu rd net da bilu hien tir Quy IV nam 2007, eiing vdi tac ddng tieu cyc, gia tang dot bien gia ca mdt sd hang hda tren thi trudng the gidi, thang 3/2008, Chinh phu da chuyen muc tieu va chinh sach tic su theo dudi muc tieu tdng trudng cao sang chinh sdch uu tien kiim che Igm phdt, dn dinh kinh ti vT md vdi nhdm gidi phdp Trong nhdm giai phap thuc hien tir thang 3/2008, thi ndi bat va ed tac dyng nhanh nhat la chinh sdch tiin ti Chinh phu thyc hien chinh sach siet chat tien te, thdng qua eac cdng cy ciia
(2)2010-Hudng su phat triln thi trudng tai chinh Viet Nam Trin Du Lich Ngan hang Trung uong nhu tang lai xuat co
ban, tang du trir bat budc ddi vdi ngan hang thuong mai, thyc hien tin phieu bat budc ddi vdi mdt sd td chirc tin dyng chu yeu, ban che viec chilt khiu eac Ioai giay td ed gia nham keo giam tdc tang du ng tin dyng ciia cac ngan hang thuong mai, giam tdng cung tien luu thdng dan den giam tdng cau ciia nen kinh te, tao su thang bang mdi quan he giira tdng cung - ting ciu Ve chinh sach tai khoa, tir dau nam 2008, ehii truang eat giam cdng chi, keo liii cac du an dau tu chua cap thiet, soat lai danh muc dau tu ciia eac doanh nghiep nha nudc Kit qua tir thang 6/2008, chi sd CPI ciia nen kinh te da cd xu hudng giam dan va kinh te vT md cd dau hieu dn dinh hon
+ Nhung sau 15/9/2008, thdi dilm thyc su nd eugc khiing hoang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh te toan eau, thi trudng the gidi da tac ddng manh den nhieu ITnh vuc boat ddng kinh te cua nudc ta Tir dau Quy IV/2008, nen kinh te cd dau hieu thieu phat siic eau tren thi trudng giam Nen kinh te dang tren da suy giam manh manh (GDP Quy I nam 2008 tang 7,4% nhung Quy I nam 2009 chi edn 3,1%)) Mdt lan niia myc tieu va c5hinh sach kinh te phai thay ddi: chuyin tic uu tien kiem chi Igm phdt sang ngdn chdn suy gidm kinh ti, kich cdu ddu tu vd tieu diing vdi nhdm giai phap thuc hien tir dau nam 2009 Cd thi ndi, vong chua ddy mdt ndm nin kinh te nudc ta dd cd hai budc ngoat ve sic dung chinh sdch kinh te vT md de thich nghi vdi tinh hinh cu thi, dd Chinh phii chii yiu sic dung nhdm chinh sdch cdng cu: chinh sdch den ti vd chinh sdch tdi khod de dilu tiet vT md Mdt lan nira chinh sach tai khoa lai chuyen sang hudng md rdng ehi cdng ITnh vyc dau tu, nhat la tang ky thuat va xa hdi;
tang trg cap xa hdi; tang bdi chi ngan sach len 1% GDP Ddi vdi chinh sach tiln te, chuyin hudng tir "thit chat linh boat" sang "ndi Idng cin trgng" phye vy myc tieu ngan chan suy giam kinh te Tuy nhien, nhdm giai phap Chinh phii thuc thi tir thang 1/2009, thi ndi bdt vdn Id viec sic dung cdng cu ciia chinh sdch tiin ti nhu: ndi Idng chinh sach tin dyng, lai suat eo ban, ty le du trii bat huge ddi vdi ngan hang thuong mai, tra ng tin philu bit budc, tai chiet khiu va tai cap vdn qua nghiep vy thi trudng md, md rgng bien ty gia VND dl kich thich su gia tang tdng cau cua nin kinh tl, vdi gdi kich thich kinh te cd quy md ty USD
Dilm qua tinh hinh kinh te nam 2008 -2009 cho thiy, cdn nhieu van de tdn tai, nhung Chinh phii da sir dyng ed hieu qua cac cdng cy ciia chinh sach tai chinh - tien te, nhat la chinh sach tiln te, phye vu cho myc tieu kinh te - xa hdi giai doan Tuy nhien, thdi ky "hau suy giam" vai trd ciia chinh sach tai chinh - tien te can phai duge dinh vi va dinh hudng the nao de thyc hien dugc chiic nang phye vy cho myc tieu tai cau tnic nen kinh te theo hudng nang cao siic canh tranh van la van de ldn dang dat
2 Sy lam dung thai qua chinh sach tai chinh - tien te se gay yeu to bat on vi mo: tinh dong bo viec svt dung cac cong cu dieu tiet vi mo dang la van de can du'o'c xem xet
Ve ly luan ciing nhu thuc tien, mgi chinh sach deu cd tinh hai mat ciia nd Viec sir dyng chinh sach tiln te dk kilm che lam phat thang diu nam 2008, nhu nin kinh tl budc phai "udng khdng sinh liiu cao ", nen tac dung phu cua nd la dilu khd tranh khdi Thuc tl vao thdi dilm nay, nhilu ngan hang thuong mai cd nguy CO mit khoan, nhilu doanh nghiep thilu
(3)Tran Du Lich Hudng su phat triln thj trudng tai chinh Viet Nam von luu ddng, nhu ngudi bi "thilu mau" gap
khdng it khd khan dl tri san xuit kinh doanh Tinh hinh keo dai tir euli thang din cudi thang 6/2008, tinh hinh lam phat cd diu hieu giam din, Chinh phii thyc hien chinh sdch tiin ti thdt chdt, nhicng linh hogt ddi vdi timg ITnh vyc khac nhau, tang khoan cho nen kinh te Nhung nam 2009, thi tinh hinh ngugc lai, vdi chinh sach hd trg tin dyng, da lam tang tinh khoan cho nen kinh te ndi chung va he thdng ngan hang thuong mai ndi rieng, thiie day thi trirdng phat trien, dat duge myc tieu ngan chan suy giam kinh te, nhung ben canh tac dyng tich cue eiia nd, thi thi trudng lai suat cd dau hieu meo md; du ng tin dyng tang cao (khoang 37%o nam 2009); ngan hang thuong mai canh tranh tang lai suat; thi trudng ngoai hdi mat can ddi, gay ap luc len ty gia USD; nguy eo tai lam phat cao de doa tinh trang bat dn kinh te vT md nhiing thang dau nam 2010 Bien phap tiln te 25/11/2009 va viec dieu chinh ty gia dau nam 2010 la budc khdi dau nham "ha nhiet" tin dung va giam sire cau ngoai te chinh sach tien te linh hoat ciia Chinh phii Do dd, cae chinh sach tai chinh tien te ciia nude ta thyc hien nam 2008 -2009, mang lai ket qua, nhung mang dam net ling phd, nen van tiem an su bit In vT md va dac biet la su an toan ciia he thdng Budc vdo ndm 2010, ben cgnh nguy ca tdi Igm phdt cao do hi qud cua chinh sdch kich thich kinh ti da vd dang dp dung, su biin ddng ciia gid cd the gidi, thi thi trudng tdi chinh - tiin te nudc ta dang ddt vdn de ndng Id: ldi sudt, ty gid vd ngudn vdn trung - ddi hgn Day la nhimg vin de, ve hinh thue thudc vl chinh sach tiln te, nhimg cd nguyen nhan sau xa tir co ciu kinh tl, ma neu chiing ta khdng dat nd mdi quan he mang tinh he thdng giua tdng cung va tong
eau eiia ca nen kinh te, de de mdt he thing giai phap ddng bd nham tai eau tnic nen kinh tl, tao sir dn djnh tii' ndi tai eiia co cau kinh te dieu kien canh tranh va hdi nhap kinh te qudc te, thdi ky "hau khung hoang" eiia the gidi, thi viec sir dung chinh sach tai chinh - tien te van tiep tyc la cae giai phap tinh the ma thdi
3 Chinh sach tai chinh - tien te phuc vu muc tieu tai cau triic va chuyen doi mo hinh tang tru'dng
• + Mac dii thdi gian qua chinh sach tien te da ddng gdp rat ed hieu qua cho myc tieu ngan chan suy giam kinh te, kiem che lam phat, dn dinh vT md, nhung tu nd khdng the giai quyet nguyen nhan bat dn tir ndi tai eiia nen kinh te That vay, nen kinh te nudc ta, vugt qua giai doan suy giam sau, nhung van edn nguyen ven nhirng tdn tai ed hiru cua co cau kinh te; nhirng nguyen nhan ben gay bat dn ve kinh te vT md Dudi tac ddng ciia cudc khiing hoang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh te toan cau, bdi hoc dirge rdt quan trgng
cho nen kinh te nude ta Id: Su bdt cap ciia
md hinh tdng trudng kinh ti theo chiiu rdng, chii yiu dua vdo su tdng vdn ddu tu, sic clung lao ddng re, khai thdc tdi nguyen thd vd gia cdng hdng xudt khdu , the hien qua cdc chi bdo nhu: he sd ICOR, VA/GO (gid tri gia tdng tren tdng sdn lugng), ca cdu hdng xudt khdu, ndng sudt lao ddng, tdng yeu td cua tdng trudng; tinh trgng thdm hut thuang mgi keo ddi phdi gidi quyit cdn cdn todn tdng thi bdng cdc ngudn ngogi ti thieu tinh dn dinh nhu kieu hdi, gidi ngdn FDI, ODA Neu cham ed giai phap can co cho cae van de tren thi nguy eo xay bat dn kinh te vT md van tiep tyc deo dudi, dii tinh hinh kinh te the gidi cd phuc hdi
(4)2010-Hudng su phat triln thi trudng tai chinh Viet Nam Triin Du Ljch Tuy nin kinh te nude ta dang hdi phye tdt,
nhung tdc phye hdi rat cham va dang chju anh hudng eiia nhiing bien ddng cua thi trudng the gidi, nhit la su tri tre cdn ed the keo dai nam 2010 Nhilu doanh nghiep da phye hdi san xuit kinh doanh, nhung da sd cac doanh nghiep vira va nhd chua thoat khdi tinh trang khd khan, tilp tue boat ddng trang thai "cam cy" de tdn tai, liing tiing ve hudng kinh doanh, khd khan ve ngudn vdn trung han; lai suat tang cao
Vdi dac diem ciia mdt nen kinh te cd md cao, eiing vdi dac diem ciia mdt nen kinh te mang nang tinh chat gia cdng, ty trgng gia tri gia tang thap co cau gia tri san pham nen chiu tac ddng rat ldn ciia thi trudng the gidi Nam 2010 ed tam quan trgng dac biet, khdng chi ed y nghTa ddi vdi viec thiie day qua trinh phye hdi kinh te, ma quan trgng hon la thdi eo de bat dau thuc hien mdt chuong trinh tdng the td chuc lai nen san xuat theo hudng nang cao siic canh tranh, khae phye nhiing tdn tai yeu kem ciia eo eau kinh te, tao budc khdi dau viing chac cho viec xay dyng va trien khai ke hoach phat trien kinh te - xa hdi nam 2011 - 2015 Do dd, can hudng sy phat trien thi trudng tai chinh vao miie tieu
+ Van de trgng tam eiia giai doan "sau suy giam" la: td chire lai nen kinh te nham chuyen nen kinh te tir tinh chat gia cdng sang san xuat; tham gia vao chudi gia tri toan eau; chuyen nen kinh te tir le thudc sang tuong thudc qua trinh hdi nhap nham xac lap vi the cua nen kinh te Viet Nam thdi ky "hau khiing hoang" ciia the gidi vdi sy du bao se dien cudc chay dua nham thay ddi trat tu kinh te quIe tl quan he toan eau va khu vuc Do dd, Chinh phii can cd mdt Chuang trinh tdng thi di thuc hien muc tieu tdi cdu true nen kinh te theo hudng
ndng cao sice cgnh tranh, vdi mdt Id trinh rd rang, ed myc tieu dinh lugng cy the, kem theo cac chinh sach kinh tl, tai chinh bao dam cho viec thuc thi cae myc tieu dl Mdt chuong trinh nhu vay can dugc ban hanh va thuc hien nam 2010 nhim ho trg va dinh hudng dau tu cho doanh nghiep tir giai doan phye hdi + Giai quyet ngudn vdn trung - dai ban dieu kien chua the lai suat dang la nhiem vu cua thi trudng tai chinh Trong hai nam qua, biln ddng eiia kinh te vT md va phan nao yeu td tam ly, viec huy ddng vdn trung dai han gap khd khan Hoat ddng eiia thi trudng chiing khoan chii ylu d thi trudng thii cap; doanh nghiep khdng cd kha nang huy ddng vdn true tiep tren thi trudng, ma phai dua vao cac dinh cbl tai chinh - tin dyng trung gian; nen ngudn vdn dau tu trung - dai han phai dua vao he thdng ngan hang thuong mai De bao dam an toan ciia he thdng, Ngan hang Nha nude da dieu chinh CO cau tin dyng trung - dai ban du ng tin dyng cua ngan hang thuong mai tir 40% xudng cdn 30%), nen ngudn tin dyng dang rat cang thang Ngay tir dau nam 2010, giiia myc tieu phye hdi tang trudng GDP vdi kiem che lam phat dang la van de mau thuin, xet ve khia canh sir dyng cac chinh sach cdng cy tai chinh - tien te Chii truong dn dinh lai suit co ban la can thiet de dn dinh vT md, nhung de ho trg cho doanh nghiep tan dung thdi co dau tu chuyin ddi CO eau san pham, co cau thi trudng, thi cin phai ed giai phap cho ngudn vdn trung - dai ban
Hien va cd le nhieu nam tdi, phin ldn ngudn vdn cho nen kinh te chii ylu van duge huy ddng va phan bd qua he thdng cac t l chirc tin dyng, dd lyc lugng chinh la he thing ngan hang thuang mai, nen chinh sach tiln te cd y nghTa quyet dinh ddi vdi su van
(5)Tran Du Lich Hudng su phat triln thi trudng tai chinh Viet Nam; ddng cua ddng vdn diu tu va ca chien
luge kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep Tren thyc tl, chinh sach tien te ddng vai trd chii yeu, khdng chi viec hd trg doanh nghiep ve ngudn vdn luu ddng, ma dang tao dieu kien cho doanh nghiep nao cd chien lugc kinh doanh tdt cd the tan dyng de thuc hien chien luge phat trien dai ban, thdng qua dau tu phat trien san pham mdi Nhung neu tiep tyc dat ganh nang cho he thdng ngan hang thuong mai thi cho dii ed dat ket qua nhat thdi cung se tich ty them nguy CO cho ca he thdng Van de d day la viec thiic day vai trd cua cac dinh che tai chinh tin dyng phi ngan hang, vai trd cua thi trirdng chimg khoan He thdng ngan hang thuong mai Viet Nam, dii phat trien den dau cung khdng the chju dugc gang nang: cung cdp 6-7 ddng tin dung de tdng mdt ddng GDP
De phye vy cho myc tieu tai cau tnic nen kinh te, thi trudng tai chinh cin tap trung kenh huy ddng vdn tryc tiep tren thi trudng vdn, tao chinh sach de cac doanh nghiep tai cau true co cau tai chinh doanh nghiep (co cau vdn/ng), dac biet la doanh nghiep nha nude; tao dilu kien dl khuyen khich doanh nghiep phat hanh cac edng cy vdn va cdng cy ng tren thi trudng chiing khoan, ke ca thi tnrdng chimg khoan nudc ngoai Ben canh dd, can sir dyng cae cdng cy dl tai kenh dan giua thi trudng vdn vdi thi trudng bit ddng
san; khuyen khich cae edng ty bat ddng san niem yet tren thi trudng chimg khoan; nghien ciai cho" phep thue hien thi diem chimg khoan hoa cae edng cy ng ciia thi trudng nha d; cae cdng trinh BOT ve dau tu tang giao thdng ; xay dung Quy dau tu tuong hd bat ddng san (REIT)
Tdm lgi, tir cudc khiing hoang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh te toan eau; tir kinh nghiem sir dung cae cdng cu chinh sach tai chinh - tien te nam qua va nhat la nhin nhung van de tdn tai, nguyen nhan sau xa gay bat dn kinh te vT md, nam 2010, can duge xem la thdi diem can thiet de khdi dau cho mdt qua trinh tai eau true va chuyen ddi md hinh tang trudng kinh te eiia nude ta theo hudng canh tranh, dd cd ndi dung ve the che kinh te Chinh sach tai chinh - tien te phai duge dat bai toan tdng the va cdn dinh vi thi trudng tdi chinh Id "hg tdng mim " ciia nen kinh te Trong djnh hudng van hanh ciia thi trudng tai chinh can hudng tdi tang tinh chat thi trudng eiia nd; ddng thdi phai lam rd ndi dung va phucmg thire dieu tiet phii hgp cua Nha nude*