1. Trang chủ
  2. » Luận Văn - Báo Cáo

Luận văn Thạc sĩ Toán học: Đánh giá độ tin cậy của hệ thống sử dụng mô hình rủi ro tỷ lệ Cox

66 14 0

Đang tải... (xem toàn văn)

Tài liệu hạn chế xem trước, để xem đầy đủ mời bạn chọn Tải xuống

THÔNG TIN TÀI LIỆU

Thông tin cơ bản

Định dạng
Số trang 66
Dung lượng 802,39 KB

Nội dung

Độ tin cậy là xác suất mà một đơn vị hay hệ thống sẽ thực hiện chức năng dự định của mình cho đến một thời điểm nào đó trong các điều kiện sử dụng cụ thể. Việc xác định độ tin cậy như là xác định chất lượng của thiết bị clip thời gian hay chính là xác định tuổi thọ của sản phẩm (thiết bị). Mời các bạn cùng tìm hiểu.

✣❸■ ❍➴❈ ◗❯➮❈ ●■❆ ❍⑨ ◆❐■ ❚❘×❮◆● ✣❸■ ❍➴❈ ❑❍❖❆ ❍➴❈ ❚Ü ◆❍■➊◆ ❇ò✐ ❇→ ▼↕♥❤ ✣⑩◆❍ ●■⑩ ✣❐ ❚■◆ ❈❾❨ ❈Õ❆ ❍➏ ❚❍➮◆● ❙Û ❉Ö◆● ▼➷ ❍➐◆❍ ❘Õ■ ❘❖ ❚✚ ▲➏ ❈❖❳ ▲❯❾◆ ❱❿◆ ❚❍❸❈ ❙➒ ❚❖⑩◆ ❍➴❈ ❍➔ ◆ë✐ ✲ ✷✵✶✾ ✣❸■ ❍➴❈ ◗❯➮❈ ●■❆ ❍⑨ ◆❐■ ❚❘×❮◆● ✣❸■ ❍➴❈ ❑❍❖❆ ❍➴❈ ❚Ü ◆❍■➊◆ ❇ò✐ ❇→ ▼↕♥❤ ✣⑩◆❍ ●■⑩ ✣❐ ❚■◆ ❈❾❨ ❈Õ❆ ❍➏ ❚❍➮◆● ❙Û ❉Ö◆● ▼➷ ❍➐◆❍ ❘Õ■ ❘❖ ❚✚ ▲➏ ❈❖❳ ❈❤✉②➯♥ ♥❣➔♥❤✿ ▲➼ t❤✉②➳t ①→❝ s✉➜t ✈➔ t❤è♥❣ ❦➯ t♦→♥ ❤å❝ ▼➣ sè✿ ✽✹✻✵✶✶✷✳✵✷ ữớ ữợ ❤å❝✿ ❚❙✳ P❍❸▼ ✣➐◆❍ ❚Ò◆● ❍➔ ◆ë✐ ✲ ✷✵✶✾ ✐ ▲í✐ ❝↔♠ ì♥ ✣➸ ❤♦➔♥ t❤➔♥❤ ✤÷đ❝ ❧✉➟♥ ✈➠♥ ♠ët tổ ổ ữủ sỹ ữợ ✈➔ ❣✐ó♣ ✤ï ♥❤✐➺t t➻♥❤ ❝õ❛ ❚❙✳ P❤↕♠ ✣➻♥❤ ❚ị♥❣✱ ●✐↔♥❣ ✈✐➯♥ ❚r÷í♥❣ ✤↕✐ ❤å❝ ❑❤♦❛ ❤å❝ ❚ü ♥❤✐➯♥ ✲ ✣↕✐ ❤å❝ ◗✉è❝ ❣✐❛ ❍➔ ◆ë✐✳ ❚æ✐ ①✐♥ ❝❤➙♥ t❤➔♥❤ ❜➔② tä ❧á♥❣ ❜✐➳t ì♥ s➙✉ s➢❝ ✤➳♥ t❤➛② ✈➔ ①✐♥ ❣û✐ ❧í✐ tr✐ ➙♥ ♥❤➜t ❝õ❛ tỉ✐ ✤è✐ ✈ỵ✐ ♥❤ú♥❣ ✤✐➲✉ t❤➛② ✤➣ ❞➔♥❤ ❝❤♦ tæ✐✳ ❚æ✐ ①✐♥ ❝❤➙♥ t❤➔♥❤ ❝↔♠ ì♥ ♣❤á♥❣ ✣➔♦ t↕♦✱ ❑❤♦❛ ❚♦→♥ ✲ ❈ì qỵ t ổ ợ ❤å❝ ❑ ✶✼ ✲ ✶✾ ✭✷✵✶✼ ✲ ✷✵✶✾✮ ❚r÷í♥❣ ✤↕✐ ❤å❝ ❦❤♦❛ ❤å❝ ❚ü ♥❤✐➯♥ ✲ ✣↕✐ ❤å❝ ◗✉è❝ ❣✐❛ ❍➔ ◆ë✐ ✤➣ t➟♥ t➻♥❤ tr✉②➲♥ ✤↕t ♥❤ú♥❣ ❦✐➳♥ t❤ù❝ qỵ ụ ữ t tổ t❤➔♥❤ ❦❤â❛ ❤å❝✳ ❚ỉ✐ ①✐♥ ❣û✐ ❧í✐ ❝↔♠ ì♥ ❝❤➙♥ t t tợ ỳ ữớ ❧✉ỉ♥ ✤ë♥❣ ✈✐➯♥✱ ❤é trđ ✈➔ t↕♦ ♠å✐ ✤✐➲✉ ❦✐➺♥ ❝❤♦ tæ✐ tr♦♥❣ s✉èt q✉→ tr➻♥❤ ❤å❝ t➟♣ ✈➔ t❤ü❝ ❤✐➺♥ ❧✉➟♥ ✈➠♥✳ ❚ỉ✐ ①✐♥ ❝↔♠ ì♥ sü ❤é trđ ❝õ❛ ✣↕✐ ❤å❝ ◗✉è❝ ❣✐❛ ❍➔ ◆ë✐ tr♦♥❣ ✤➲ t➔✐ ◗●✳✶✽✳✵✸ tr♦♥❣ t♦➔♥ ❜ë q✉→ tr➻♥❤ ❧➔♠ ▲✉➟♥ ✈➠♥✳ ❳✐♥ tr➙♥ trå♥❣ ❝↔♠ ì♥✦ ❍➔ ◆ë✐✱ t❤→♥❣ ✳✳✳ ♥➠♠ ✷✵✳✳✳ ◆❣÷í✐ ✈✐➳t ▲✉➟♥ ✈➠♥ ❇ị✐ ❇→ ▼↕♥❤ ❉❛♥❤ ♠ư❝ ❤➻♥❤ ✶✳✶ ✶✳✷ ✶✳✸ ✶✳✹ ✶✳✺ ✶✳✻ ✶✳✼ ✶✳✽ ✶✳✾ ✶✳✶✵ ✶✳✶✶ ✶✳✶✷ ✶✳✶✸ ❇✐➳♥ tr↕♥❣ t❤→✐ ✈➔ t✉ê✐ t❤å ❝õ❛ ♠ët ✤è✐ t÷đ♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ❍➔♠ ♣❤➙♥ ❜è ①→❝ s✉➜t F (t) ✈➔ ❤➔♠ ♠➟t ✤ë ①→❝ s✉➜t f (t) ✳ ❍➔♠ t✐♥ ❝➟② R(t) ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ❍➔♠ ❜➟❝ t❤❛♥❣ λ(t) ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ❍➔♠ ❜➟❝ t❤❛♥❣ λ(t) t✐➺♠ ❝➟♥ ✤➳♥ ♠ët ✤÷í♥❣ ❝♦♥❣ ❧✐➯♥ tö❝ ✳ ❱à tr➼ ❝õ❛ ▼❚❚❋✱ tm ✈➔ tmode ❝õ❛ ♠ët ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ỡ ỗ ố tố ữủ t ố ố t✐➳♣ ✈➔ s♦♥❣ s♦♥❣ ✳ ❍➺ t❤è♥❣ ❝➜✉ tró❝ ❤é♥ ❤ñ♣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ P❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ♠ơ (µ = 1) ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ❍➔♠ ♠➟t ✤ë ①→❝ s✉➜t ❝õ❛ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ●❛♠♠❛✱ µ = ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ❍➔♠ t✐♥ ❝➟② ❝õ❛ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ●❛♠♠❛✱ µ = ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ❍➔♠ rõ✐ r♦ ❝õ❛ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ●❛♠♠❛✱ µ = ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ❍➔♠ ♠➟t ✤ë ①→❝ s✉➜t ❝õ❛ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ❲❡✐❜✉❧❧ ✈ỵ✐ ♠ët sè ❣✐→ trà ❝õ❛ t❤❛♠ sè ❤➻♥❤ ❞↕♥❣ α ✈➔ β = 1✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✳✶✹ ❍➔♠ t➾ ❧➺ rõ✐ r♦ ❝õ❛ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ❲❡✐❜✉❧❧✱ β = 1✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻ ✽ ✽ ✶✷ ✶✷ ✶✹ ✶✻ ✶✾ ✷✶ ✷✷ ✷✸ ✷✸ ✷✳✶ ✷✳✷ ✷✳✸ ✷✳✹ ✷✳✺ ✷✳✻ ✷✳✼ ✷✳✽ ✷✳✾ ✹✵ ✹✽ ✹✾ ỡ ỗ ố q tr➻♥❤ ❲❡✐❜✉❧❧ P❍▼ ❝❤♦ tö ✤✐➺♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ❍➔♠ t✐♥ ❝➟② ð ❝ò♥❣ 170 ❈ ✈ỵ✐ ✹ ♠ù❝ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ✳ ✳ ❍➔♠ t✐♥ ❝➟② ð ❝ị♥❣ 180 ❈ ✈ỵ✐ ✹ ♠ù❝ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ✳ ✳ ❍➔♠ t✐♥ ❝➟② ð ❝ị♥❣ 350 V ✈ỵ✐ ✷ ♠ù❝ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ✳ ✳ ❍➔♠ ♠➟t ✤ë ð ❝ò♥❣ 170 ❈ ✈ỵ✐ ✹ ♠ù❝ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ✳ ✳ ❍➔♠ ♠➟t ✤ë ð ❝ị♥❣ 350 V ✈ỵ✐ ✷ ♠ù❝ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ✳ ✳ ❍➔♠ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ð ❝ị♥❣ 170 ❈ ✈ỵ✐ ✹ ♠ù❝ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ❍➔♠ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ð ❝ị♥❣ 350 V ✈ỵ✐ ✷ ự t ỗ t ❞÷ ❝õ❛ ✸✷ q✉❛♥ s→t ❦❤ỉ♥❣ ❜à ❦✐➸♠ ❞✉②➺t ✐✐ ✷✺ ✷✺ ❉❛♥❤ ♠ö❝ ❜↔♥❣ ✷✳✶ ✷✳✷ ✷✳✸ ❑➳t q✉↔ t❤û ♥❣❤✐➺♠ ❝❤♦ t✉ê✐ t❤å ❝õ❛ tư ✤✐➺♥ P❤➛♥ ❞÷ t÷ì♥❣ ù♥❣ ✸✷ q✉❛♥ s→t ❦❤ỉ♥❣ ❜à ❦✐➸♠ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✽ ❞✉②➺t ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✷ ❚✉ê✐ t❤å tr✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ ð ❝→❝ ♠ù❝ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ✈➔ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✺ ✐✐✐ ▼ư❝ ❧ư❝ ●✐ỵ✐ t❤✐➺✉ ❧✉➟♥ ✈➠♥ ✶ ✶ ▼ỉ ❤➻♥❤ ✤ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ✻ ✶ ✷ ✸ ❈→❝ ❦❤→✐ ♥✐➺♠ ❝ì ❜↔♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✳✶ ❇✐➳♥ tr↕♥❣ t❤→✐ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✳✷ ❚✉ê✐ t❤å ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✳✸ ❍➔♠ t✐♥ ❝➟② ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✳✹ ❍➔♠ t➾ ❧➺ rõ✐ r♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✳✺ ❚✉ê✐ t❤å tr✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✳✻ ❑✐➸♠ ❞✉②➺t ✈➔ ❝❤➦t ❝öt ❞ú ❧✐➺✉ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✣ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ❝õ❛ ❤➺ t❤è♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✳✶ ❍➺ t❤è♥❣ ♥è✐ t✐➳♣ ✈➔ s♦♥❣ s♦♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✳✷ tố ỗ k ữủ r tứ n ❤➺ ❝♦♥ ▼ët sè ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ t✉ê✐ t❤å t❤÷í♥❣ ❣➦♣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✳✶ P❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ♠ô ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✳✷ P❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ●❛♠♠❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✳✸ P❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ❲❡✐❜✉❧❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ìợ ữủ t số ố tờ t❤å ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷ ▼æ ❤➻♥❤ t✛ ❧➺ rõ✐ r♦ ❈♦① ✭P❍▼✮ ✶ ✷ ▼æ ❤➻♥❤ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✳✶ ▼æ ❤➻♥❤ t✛ ❧➺ rõ✐ r♦ ❈♦① ✭P❍▼✮ ✶✳✷ ▼ët sè ✈➼ ❞ö ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ìợ ữủ t số tr ổ ìợ ữủ t số ổ ❤➻♥❤ t✛ ❧➺ r♦ ❲❡✐❜✉❧❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✐✈ ✻ ✻ ✼ ✽ ✾ ✶✷ ✶✹ ✶✻ ✶✼ ✶✾ ✷✵ ✷✵ ✷✶ ✷✹ ✷✻ ✷✾ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ rõ✐ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ r♦ ❈♦① ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✈ỵ✐ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ rõ✐ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✾ ✷✾ ✸✵ ✸✷ ✳ ✸✷ ✸ Pữỡ s số ữợ ữủ ✳ ✳ ✳ P❤➙♥ t➼❝❤ ♣❤➛♥ ❞÷ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ❙ü ♣❤ị ❤đ♣ ❝õ❛ ♠ỉ ❤➻♥❤ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ Ù♥❣ ❞ö♥❣ ♣❤➙♥ t➼❝❤ ✤ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ ✺✳✶ ❈♦① P❍▼ ❝❤♦ tö ✤✐➺♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ìợ t t số ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✳✸ ❈→❝ ✤↕✐ ❧÷đ♥❣ ✤➦❝ tr÷♥❣ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✳✹ P❤➛♥ ❞÷ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✳✺ ❚✉ê✐ t❤å tr✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ❚➔✐ ❧✐➺✉ t❤❛♠ ❦❤↔♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✹ ✸✺ ✸✻ ✸✼ ✹✵ ✹✶ ✹✹ ✺✷ ✺✸ ✺✽ ✈ ●✐ỵ✐ t❤✐➺✉ ❧✉➟♥ ✈➠♥ ✶✳ ▲➼ ❞♦ ❝❤å♥ ✤➲ t➔✐ ✣ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ❧➔ ①→❝ s✉➜t ♠➔ ♠ët ✤ì♥ ✈à ❤❛② ❤➺ t❤è♥❣ s➩ t❤ü❝ ❤✐➺♥ ❝❤ù❝ ♥➠♥❣ ❞ü ✤à♥❤ ❝õ❛ ♠➻♥❤ ❝❤♦ ✤➳♥ ♠ët t❤í✐ ✤✐➸♠ ♥➔♦ ✤â tr♦♥❣ ❝→❝ ✤✐➲✉ ❦✐➺♥ sû ❞ö♥❣ ❝ö t❤➸✳ ❱✐➺❝ ①→❝ ✤à♥❤ ✤ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ♥❤÷ ❧➔ ①→❝ ✤à♥❤ ❝❤➜t ❧÷đ♥❣ ❝õ❛ t❤✐➳t ❜à t❤❡♦ t❤í✐ ❣✐❛♥ ❤❛② ❝❤➼♥❤ ❧➔ ①→❝ ✤à♥❤ t✉ê✐ t❤å ❝õ❛ s↔♥ ♣❤➞♠ ✭t❤✐➳t ❜à✮✳ ❑❤✐ ✤→♥❤ ❣✐→ ✤ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ❝õ❛ s↔♥ ♣❤➞♠ ✤÷đ❝ t❤✐➳t ❦➳✱ t❛ ♣❤↔✐ ①❡♠ ①➨t ❝❤✐ t✐➳t ✈➲ ❝→❝ tr÷í♥❣ ❤đ♣ ❣➙② ❧é✐ s↔♥ ♣❤➞♠ ✈➔ ❝ì ❝❤➳ t❤➜t ❜↕✐ ❤ä♥❣ ❤â❝ ❝õ❛ q✉→ tr➻♥❤ sû ❞ư♥❣ s↔♥ ♣❤➞♠✳ ❈→❝ ♥❤➔ s↔♥ ①✉➜t t❤÷í♥❣ ✤÷❛ r❛ ❣✐ỵ✐ ❤↕♥ ❝❤♦ ✤ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ❝❤➼♥❤ t❤ù❝ ❤♦➦❝ ❦❤æ♥❣ ❝❤➼♥❤ t❤ù❝ ❝õ❛ s↔♥ ♣❤➞♠ t❤✐➳t ❜à✳ ◆❤ú♥❣ ❦❤➥♥❣ õ t ỗ tứ q ự ợ ❝→❝ s↔♥ ♣❤➞♠ t÷ì♥❣ tü✱ ❝→❝ t✐➯✉ ❝❤✉➞♥ tr♦♥❣ ❝ỉ♥❣ ♥❣❤✐➺♣✱ ❝→❝ ②➯✉ ❝➛✉ ❝õ❛ ❦❤→❝❤ ❤➔♥❣ ❤♦➦❝ ♠ët ♠♦♥❣ ♠✉è♥ ❝↔✐ t❤✐➺♥ ✤ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ❤✐➺♥ ❝â ❝õ❛ s↔♥ ♣❤➞♠✳ ❚r♦♥❣ t❤è♥❣ ❦➯✱ t❤í✐ ❣✐❛♥ ❤♦↕t ✤ë♥❣ ❝õ❛ ♠ët t❤✐➳t ❜à s↔♥ ♣❤➞♠ ✤÷đ❝ ❣å✐ ❧➔ t✉ê✐ t❤å ❤❛② t❤í✐ ❣✐❛♥ sè♥❣ ❝õ❛ t❤✐➳t ❜à ✤÷đ❝ ❝♦✐ ❧➔ ♠ët ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ✈ỵ✐ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ✭❧✐❢❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥✮ ❝ư t❤➸ ♥❤÷ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ♠ơ✱ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ❲❡✐❜✉❧❧✳✳✳ ✣➸ ✤→♥❤ ❣✐→ t✉ê✐ t❤å ❝õ❛ t❤✐➳t ❜à s↔♥ ♣❤➞♠ ❦❤✐ t❤❛② ✤ê✐ ❝→❝ ②➳✉ tè t→❝ ✤ë♥❣ ♥❤÷ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë✱ ✤ë ➞♠✱ ✤ë r✉♥❣✱ sè❝ ♥❤✐➺t✱ ✳✳✳ ❝→❝ ❦ÿ s÷ t❤÷í♥❣ sû ❞ư♥❣ ♣❤÷ì♥❣ ♣❤→♣ t❤û ♥❣❤✐➺♠ t➠♥❣ tè❝ tr♦♥❣ ♣❤á♥❣ t❤➼ ♥❣❤✐➺♠ ✭❛❝❝❡❧❡r❛t❡❞ ❧✐❢❡ t❡st✐♥❣✮✳ ❈æ♥❣ tr➻♥❤ ❧➔♠ ♥➯♥ t➯♥ t✉ê✐ ❝õ❛ ●❙✳ ❉❛✈✐❞ ❈♦① ❧➔ ❜➔✐ ❜→♦ ✏❘❡❣r❡ss✐♦♥ ♠♦❞❡❧s ❛♥❞ ❧✐❢❡✲t❛❜❧❡s✑ ✤÷đ❝ ❝ỉ♥❣ ❜è tr➯♥ t➟♣ s❛♥ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❘♦②❛❧ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ❙♦❝✐❡t② ♥➠♠ ✶✾✼✷✳ ❇➔✐ ❜→♦ ❝õ❛ ●❙✳ ❈♦① ❝❤♦ ✤➳♥ ♥❛② ✭s❛✉ ✹✽ ♥➠♠✮ ✤➣ ❝â ❤ì♥ ✹✺✱✵✵✵ tr➼❝❤ ❞➝♥✦ ❇➔✐ ❜→♦ ♥➔② ✤÷đ❝ ✤→♥❤ ❣✐→ ❧➔ ♠ët tr ổ tr t t tứ trữợ ✤➳♥ ♥❛②✳ ❚r♦♥❣ ❜➔✐ ❜→♦ ✤â✱ æ♥❣ ♠æ t↔ ♠ët ♣❤÷ì♥❣ ♣❤→♣ ♣❤➙♥ t➼❝❤ ❝→❝ ❞ú ❧✐➺✉ sè♥❣ ❝á♥ t❤❡♦ ổ ỗ q ổ s ữủ t ữợ tt ỳ s rrt rs ▼æ ❤➻♥❤ ♥➔② ♣❤ê ❜✐➳♥ tr♦♥❣ ❤➛✉ ❤➳t ❝→❝ ♥❣➔♥❤ ❦❤♦❛ ❤å❝✱ tø ② ❦❤♦❛ ✤➳♥ ①➣ ❤ë✐ ❤å❝ ✈➔ ❦❤♦❛ ❤å❝ ❦➽ t❤✉➟t✳ ❈❤➥♥❣ ❤↕♥✱ tr♦♥❣ ② ❦❤♦❛✱ ♠æ ❤➻♥❤ ✤÷đ❝ →♣ ❞ư♥❣ ✤➸ ♥❣❤✐➯♥ ❝ù✉ sü ↔♥❤ ❤÷ð♥❣ tố ữ tờ ợ t ❝➙♥ ♥➦♥❣✱✳✳✳ ✤➳♥ t✉ê✐ t❤å ❝õ❛ ❝→❝ ❜➺♥❤ ♥❤➙♥ ✉♥❣ t❤÷ s❛✉ ❦❤✐ ✤÷đ❝ ✤✐➲✉ trà❀ tr♦♥❣ ❦❤♦❛ ❤å❝ ①➣ ❤ë✐✱ ♥❤✐➲✉ ♥❤➔ ❦❤♦❛ ❤å❝ →♣ ❞ư♥❣ ♠ỉ ❤➻♥❤ ✤➸ ♥❣❤✐➯♥ ❝ù✉ t❤í✐ ❣✐❛♥ ❝❤✉♥❣ sè♥❣ ❝õ❛ ❝→❝ ❝➦♣ ✈đ ỗ tứ t ổ ú tr ❦❤♦❛ ❤å❝ ❦➽ t❤✉➟t✱ ♠ỉ ❤➻♥❤ ❝â t❤➸ ✤÷đ❝ →♣ ❞ư♥❣ ✤➸ ♥❣❤✐➯♥ ❝ù✉ sü ↔♥❤ ❤÷ð♥❣ ❝õ❛ ❝→❝ t→❝ ♥❤➙♥ ✤➳♥ ✤ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ❝õ❛ ♠→② ♠â❝✳ ❱➻ ✈➟②✱ ❝❤ó♥❣ tỉ✐ ❝❤å♥ ✤➲ t➔✐ ✧✣→♥❤ ❣✐→ ✤ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ❝õ❛ ❤➺ t❤è♥❣ sû ❞ư♥❣ ♠ỉ ❤➻♥❤ rõ✐ r♦ t✛ ❧➺ ❈♦①✧✳ ✷✳ ▼ö❝ ✤➼❝❤ ♥❣❤✐➯♥ ❝ù✉ ▲✉➟♥ ✈➠♥ ✤✐ t➻♠ ❤✐➸✉ ♠æ ❤➻♥❤ t✛ ❧➺ rõ✐ r♦ ❈♦① ✈➔ ự ổ ợ trữớ ủ rừ r ✤➸ ❦✐➸♠ ❝❤ù♥❣ sü ♣❤ö t❤✉ë❝ ❝õ❛ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ✈➔ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ✤➳♥ t✉ê✐ t❤å ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ t❤õ② t✐♥❤✳ ❚r➯♥ ❝ì sð ✤â✱ ✤÷❛ r❛ ❞ü ❜→♦ t✉ê✐ t❤å tr✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ t❤õ② t✐♥❤ ð ❝→❝ ♠ù❝ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ✈➔ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉✳ ✸✳ ✣è✐ t÷đ♥❣ ✈➔ ♣❤↕♠ ✈✐ ♥❣❤✐➯♥ ❝ù✉ ✸✳✶✳ ✣è✐ t÷đ♥❣ ♥❣❤✐➯♥ ❝ù✉ ▼ỉ ❤➻♥❤ t✛ ❧➺ rõ✐ r♦ ❈♦① ✈ỵ✐ rõ✐ r♦ ❲❡✐❜✉❧❧ ✈➔ ù♥❣ ❞ư♥❣ ♠ỉ ❤➻♥❤ ✈➔♦ ♣❤➙♥ t➼❝❤ ✤ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ t❤õ② t✐♥❤✳ ✸✳✷✳ P❤↕♠ ✈✐ ♥❣❤✐➯♥ ❝ù✉ ◆❣❤✐➯♥ ❝ù✉ ✤ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ ❜➡♥❣ ❝→❝ t❤û ♥❣❤✐➺♠ t➠♥❣ tè❝ tr♦♥❣ ♣❤á♥❣ t❤➼ ♥❣❤✐➺♠✱ ✤→♥❤ ❣✐→ t✉ê✐ t❤å ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ t❤❡♦ ❝→❝ ❜✐➳♥ ↔♥❤ ❤÷ð♥❣ ✭♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ✈➔ ✤✐➺♥ →♣✮✳ ✷ ✹✳ P❤÷ì♥❣ ♣❤→♣ ♥❣❤✐➯♥ ❝ù✉ ❙û ❞ư♥❣ ♣❤÷ì♥❣ ♣❤→♣ t❤è♥❣ ❦➯ t❤❛♠ số ợ ổ t rừ r trữớ ❤ñ♣ rõ✐ r♦ ❲❡✐❜✉❧❧ ✤➸ ✤→♥❤ ❣✐→ ✤ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ❝õ❛ tư ✤✐➺♥✳ ✺✳ Þ ♥❣❤➽❛ ❦❤♦❛ ❤å❝ ✈➔ t❤ü❝ t✐➵♥ ❝õ❛ ❧✉➟♥ ✈➠♥ ✺✳✶✳ Þ ♥❣❤➽❛ ❦❤♦❛ ❤å❝ ▲✉➟♥ ✈➠♥ ✤✐ t➻♠ ❤✐➸✉ q✉→ tr➻♥❤ ❲❡✐❜✉❧❧ P❍▼ ✈➔ ù♥❣ ❞ư♥❣ t❤➔♥❤ ❝ỉ♥❣ ♠ỉ ❤➻♥❤ t✛ ❧➺ rõ✐ r♦ ❈♦① ✤➸ ♣❤➙♥ t➼❝❤ ✤ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ t❤õ② t✐♥❤✳ ❑➳t q✉↔ ❝õ❛ ♠ư❝ ✺ tr♦♥❣ ❈❤÷ì♥❣ ✷ ✤➣ ❜ê s✉♥❣ ❝❤♦ ❝→❝ ❝ì sð ❧➼ ❧✉➟♥ tø ✤â ❣â♣ ♣❤➛♥ ❤♦➔♥ t❤✐➺♥ ❝→❝ ❦✐➸♠ ❝❤ù♥❣ ✤➸ ❦❤➥♥❣ ✤à♥❤ r t õ ữ ợ ✤➳♥ t✉ê✐ t❤å ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ t❤õ② t✐♥❤ ✈➔ t✉ê✐ tồ õ ữợ t tỷ õ ữợ t ụ r t✐➳♣ ❝➟♥ ❤é trđ ❝❤♦ ✈✐➺❝ sû ❞ư♥❣ ❲❡✐❜✉❧❧ P❍▼ ✤➸ ❞ü ✤♦→♥ ❝→❝ ✤➦❝ t➼♥❤ ✤ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ❝õ❛ ❝→❝ t❤✐➳t ❜à ✤✐➺♥ tû ♥â✐ ❝❤✉♥❣ ❦❤✐ ❝â ✤÷đ❝ ❜ë ❞ú ❧✐➺✉ t❤û ♥❣❤✐➺♠✳ ✺✳✷✳ Þ ♥❣❤➽❛ t❤ü❝ t✐➵♥ ❚ø ❦➳t q✉↔ ❝õ❛ ▲✉➟♥ ✈➠♥ ❦❤➥♥❣ ✤à♥❤ r➡♥❣✿ ❚✉ê✐ tồ tử õ ữợ t õ ữợ t ữớ ũ ❝â t❤➸ ❧ü❛ ❝❤å♥ ♠ỉ✐ tr÷í♥❣ ❧➔♠ ✈✐➺❝ ❝â ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë t❤➼❝❤ ❤ñ♣ ✈➔ ✤✐➲✉ ❝❤➾♥❤ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❤ñ♣ ❧➼ ✤➸ ✈ø❛ t✐➺♥ ❧đ✐ ❝❤♦ ✈✐➺❝ sû ❞ư♥❣ ❝ơ♥❣ ♥❤÷ ❦➨♦ ❞➔✐ ❤ì♥ t✉ê✐ t❤å ❝õ❛ tư ✤✐➺♥✳ ✻✳ ❚â♠ t➢t ❚➻♠ ❤✐➸✉ ♠æ ❤➻♥❤ t✛ ❧➺ rõ✐ r♦ ❈♦① ự ổ ợ trữớ ủ rừ r ❲❡✐❜✉❧❧ ♣❤➙♥ t➼❝❤ ✤ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ❝õ❛ ❜ë sè ❧✐➺✉✿✧❚❤í✐ ❣✐❛♥ sè♥❣ ❝õ❛ ✻✹ tö ✤✐➺♥ t❤õ② t✐♥❤✧✳ ✣➸ ❣✐↔✐ q✉②➳t ✤÷đ❝ ❝→❝ ✈➜♥ ✤➲ ✤➣ ♥➯✉✱ ▲✉➟♥ ✈➠♥ ✤÷đ❝ tr➻♥❤ ❜➔② t❤➔♥❤ ✷ ❝❤÷ì♥❣✿ ✸ = ❡①♣ −37132383 · ˆ (t) = ❡①♣ − R t · ❡①♣(0.016 · 300 + 170 · 0.079) e13.407 t t 664639 · ❡①♣(0.016 · 350 + 170 · 0.079) t 664639 = ❡①♣ −183917896 · ˆ (t) = ❡①♣ − R · ❡①♣(0.016 · 200 + 180 · 0.079) = ❡①♣ −36762909 · ˆ (t) = ❡①♣ − R · ❡①♣(0.016 · 250 + 180 · 0.079) t 664639 · ❡①♣(0.016 · 300 + 180 · 0.079) = ❡①♣ −182087883 · ˆ (t) = ❡①♣ − R e13.407 2.75 e1.011 e13.407 t 2.75 e1.011 = ❡①♣ −81817360 · ˆ (t) = ❡①♣ − R t 664639 e13.407 t 2.75 e1.011 e13.407 t 2.75 e1.011 e13.407 t 2.75 e1.011 = ❡①♣ −82639638 · ˆ (t) = ❡①♣ − R t 664639 t 664639 2.75 e1.011 · ❡①♣(0.016 · 350 + 180 · 0.079) ✹✺ = ❡①♣ −405244035 · t 664639 2.75 ❚ø ❝æ♥❣ t❤ù❝ (2.36) ❤➔♠ ♠➟t ✤ë ①→❝ s✉➜t ❝❤♦ ❝→❝ ♠ù❝ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ✈➔ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ✤÷đ❝ ①→❝ ✤à♥❤ ♥❤÷ s❛✉✿ ˆ (t) · R ˆ (t) fˆ1 (t) = λ = e1.011 1/e13.407 −7 = 4.6 · 10 fˆ2 (t) = 10 −6 ·t 1.75 ·t 1.75 e1.011 13.407 · te −1 · ❡①♣(0.016 · 200 + 170 · 0.079) · R1 (t) · ❡①♣ −16684655 · · ❡①♣ −37132383 · t 664639 t 664639 2.75 t 664639 fˆ3 (t) = 2.27259 · 10−6 · t1.75 · ❡①♣ −82639638 · fˆ4 (t) = · 10−6 · t1.75 · ❡①♣ −183917896 · fˆ5 (t) = 10−6 · t1.75 · ❡①♣ −36762909 · fˆ6 (t) = 2.25 · 10−6 · t1.75 · ❡①♣ −81817360 · fˆ7 (t) = · 10−6 · t1.75 · ❡①♣ −182087883 · 2.75 2.75 t 664639 t 664639 2.75 2.75 t 664639 2.75 t 664639 fˆ8 (t) = 1.114421 · 10−6 · t1.75 · ❡①♣ −405244035 · 2.75 t 664639 2.75 ❚ø ❝æ♥❣ t❤ù❝ (2.37) ❤➔♠ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ①→❝ s✉➜t ❝❤♦ ❝→❝ ♠ù❝ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ✈➔ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ✤÷đ❝ ①→❝ ✤à♥❤ ♥❤÷ s❛✉✿ Fˆ1 (t) = − ❡①♣ −16684655 · ✹✻ t 664639 2.75 t 664639 2.75 Fˆ2 (t) = − ❡①♣ −37132383 · 2.75 Fˆ3 (t) = − ❡①♣ −82639638 · t 664639 Fˆ4 (t) = − ❡①♣ −183917896 · t 664639 t 664639 2.75 Fˆ5 (t) = − ❡①♣ −36762909 · t 664639 2.75 Fˆ6 (t) = − ❡①♣ −81817360 · t 664639 2.75 Fˆ7 (t) = − ❡①♣ −182087883 · t 664639 2.75 Fˆ8 (t) = − ❡①♣ −405244035 · 2.75 ❈ó ♣❤→♣ ✈➩ ❤➔♠ t✐♥ ❝➟② ð ❝ị♥❣ 170 ❈ ✈ỵ✐ ✹ ♠ù❝ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉✿ ❃ ❧✐❜r❛r②✭❣❣♣❧♦t✷✮ ❃ ① ❁✲ s❡q✭✵✱✶✵✵✵✱✶✮ ❃ ❣❣♣❧♦t✭✱ ❛❡s✭①✮✮ ✰ ❃ ❣❡♦♠❴❧✐♥❡✭❛❡s✭② ❂ ❡①♣✭✲✶✻✻✽✹✻✺✺✯✭ ①✴✻✻✹✻✸✾✮✂✷✳✼✺✮✱ ❝♦❧♦✉r ❂ ✧✷✵✵❱✧✮✮✰ ❃ ❣❡♦♠❴❧✐♥❡✭❛❡s✭② ❂ ❡①♣✭✲✸✼✶✸✷✸✽✸✯✭ ①✴✻✻✹✻✸✾✮✂✷✳✼✺✮✱ ❝♦❧♦✉r ❂ ✧✷✺✵❱✧✮✮✰ ❃ ❣❡♦♠❴❧✐♥❡✭❛❡s✭② ❂ ❡①♣✭✲✽✷✻✸✾✻✸✽✭ ①✴✻✻✹✻✸✾✮✂✷✳✼✺✮✱ ❝♦❧♦✉r ❂ ✧✸✵✵❱✧✮✮✰ ❃ ❣❡♦♠❴❧✐♥❡✭❛❡s✭② ❂ ❡①♣✭✲✶✽✸✾✶✼✽✾✻✯✭ ①✴✻✻✹✻✸✾✮✂✷✳✼✺✮✱ ❝♦❧♦✉r ❂ ✧✸✺✵❱✧✮✮ ❑➳t q✉↔ t❤✉ ✤÷đ❝ ♥❤÷ ❍➻♥❤ ✷✳✷✳ ✹✼ ❍➻♥❤ ✷✳✷✿ ❍➔♠ t✐♥ ❝➟② ð ❝ò♥❣ 170 0❈ ✈ỵ✐ ✹ ♠ù❝ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ❈ó ♣❤→♣ ✈➩ ❤➔♠ t✐♥ ❝➟② ð ❝ị♥❣ 180 ❈ ✈ỵ✐ ✹ ♠ù❝ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ♥❤÷ s❛✉✿ ❃ ❧✐❜r❛r②✭❣❣♣❧♦t✷✮ ❃ ① ❁✲ s❡q✭✵✱✶✵✵✵✱✶✮ ❃ ❣❣♣❧♦t✭✱ ❛❡s✭①✮✮ ✰ ❃ ❣❡♦♠❴❧✐♥❡✭❛❡s✭② ❂ ❡①♣✭✲✸✻✼✻✷✾✵✾✯✭ ①✴✻✻✹✻✸✾✮✂✷✳✼✺✮✱ ❝♦❧♦✉r ❂ ✧✷✵✵❱✧✮✮✰ ❃ ❣❡♦♠❴❧✐♥❡✭❛❡s✭② ❂ ❡①♣✭✲✽✶✽✶✼✸✻✵✯✭ ①✴✻✻✹✻✸✾✮✂✷✳✼✺✮✱ ❝♦❧♦✉r ❂ ✧✷✺✵❱✧✮✮✰ ❃ ❣❡♦♠❴❧✐♥❡✭❛❡s✭② ❂ ❡①♣✭✲✶✽✷✵✽✼✽✽✸✭ ①✴✻✻✹✻✸✾✮✂✷✳✼✺✮✱ ❝♦❧♦✉r ❂ ✧✸✵✵❱✧✮✮✰ ❃ ❣❡♦♠❴❧✐♥❡✭❛❡s✭② ❂ ❡①♣✭✲✹✵✺✷✹✹✵✸✺✯✭ ①✴✻✻✹✻✸✾✮✂✷✳✼✺✮✱ ❝♦❧♦✉r ❂ ✧✸✺✵❱✧✮✮ ❑➳t q✉↔ t❤✉ ✤÷đ❝ ♥❤÷ ❍➻♥❤ ✷✳✸✳ ❈ó ♣❤→♣ ✈➩ ❤➔♠ t✐♥ ❝➟② ð ❝ị♥❣ ✸✺✵ ❱ ✈ỵ✐ ✷ ♠ù❝ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉✿ ❃ ❧✐❜r❛r②✭❣❣♣❧♦t✷✮ ❃ ① ❁✲ s❡q✭✵✱✶✺✵✵✱✶✮ ❃ ❣❣♣❧♦t✭✱ ❛❡s✭①✮✮ ✰ ❃ ❣❡♦♠❴❧✐♥❡✭❛❡s✭② ❂ ❡①♣✭✲✶✽✸✾✶✼✽✾✻✯✭ ①✴✻✻✹✻✸✾✮✂✷✳✼✺✮✱ ❝♦❧♦✉r ❂ ✧✷✵✵ ❱✧✮✮✰ ❃ ❣❡♦♠❴❧✐♥❡✭❛❡s✭② ❂ ❡①♣✭✲✹✵✺✷✹✹✵✸✺✯✭ ①✴✻✻✹✻✸✾✮✂✷✳✼✺✮✱ ❝♦❧♦✉r ❂ ✧✷✺✵ ❱✧✮✮ ❑➳t q✉↔ t❤✉ ✤÷đ❝ ♥❤÷ ❍➻♥❤ ✷✳✹✳ ✹✽ ❍➻♥❤ ✷✳✸✿ ❍➔♠ t✐♥ ❝➟② ð ❝ị♥❣ 180 0❈ ✈ỵ✐ ✹ ♠ù❝ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ❍➻♥❤ ✷✳✹✿ ❍➔♠ t✐♥ ❝➟② ð ❝ị♥❣ 350 V ✈ỵ✐ ✷ ♠ù❝ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ✹✾ ❍➻♥❤ ✷✳✺✿ ❍➔♠ ♠➟t ✤ë ð ❝ò♥❣ 170 0❈ ✈ỵ✐ ✹ ♠ù❝ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ❍➻♥❤ ✷✳✻✿ ❍➔♠ ♠➟t ✤ë ð ❝ị♥❣ 350 V ✈ỵ✐ ✷ ♠ù❝ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ❚ø ❍➻♥❤ ✷✳✺ ✤➳♥ ❍➻♥❤ ✷✳✽ ❜✐➸✉ t❤à ❤➔♠ ♠➟t ✤ë ①→❝ s✉➜t ✈➔ ❤➔♠ ♣❤➙♥ ❜è ①→❝ s✉➜t ð ❝→❝ ♠ù❝ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ✈➔ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉✳ ✺✵ ❍➻♥❤ ✷✳✼✿ ❍➔♠ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ð ❝ị♥❣ 170 0❈ ✈ỵ✐ ✹ ♠ù❝ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ❍➻♥❤ ✷✳✽✿ ❍➔♠ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ð ❝ò♥❣ 350 V ✈ỵ✐ ✷ ♠ù❝ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ✺✶ ◗✉❛♥ s→t ❍➻♥❤ ✷✳✷ ✤➳♥ ❍➻♥❤ ✷✳✹ ❝â t❤➸ ♥❤➟♥ t❤➜② r➡♥❣ t õ ữợ t →♣ ❤❛② t➠♥❣ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë✳ ◆â✐ ❦❤→❝ ✤✐✱ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ✈➔ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❝â ↔♥❤ ❤÷ð♥❣ ✤➳♥ t✉ê✐ t❤å ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ ✈➔ t✉ê✐ t❤å ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ ❝â ①✉ ữợ t ✺✳✹ P❤➛♥ ❞÷ ❑❤✐ ✤➣ ❜✐➳t ❝→❝ t❤❛♠ sè ❝❤ó♥❣ t❛ s➩ ①→❝ ✤à♥❤ ✤÷đ❝ ♣❤➛♥ ❞÷ ❈♦① ✲ ❙♥❡❧❧ ✭ ˆi ✮✳ ❇➡♥❣ ❝→❝❤ sû ❞ư♥❣ ❝ỉ♥❣ t❤ù❝ (2.29) t❤❛② t❤í✐ ❣✐❛♥ ð ❝ët ✧t✐♠❡✧ tr♦♥❣ ❇↔♥❣ ✷✳✶ ❧➛♥ ❧÷đt ✈➔♦ ❝→❝ ❤➔♠ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ t❤ü❝ ♥❣❤✐➺♠ Fˆi (t) tữỡ ự s t ữủ ữ ự ợ ✻✹ q✉❛♥ s→t✳ ❙❛✉ ❦❤✐ ✤➣ ❧å❝ ❝→❝ q✉❛♥ s→t ❜à ❦✐➸♠ ❞✉②➺t✱ ♥❤➟♥ ✤÷đ❝ ✸✷ ♣❤➛♥ ❞÷ t÷ì♥❣ ù♥❣ ✸✷ q✉❛♥ s→t ❦❤ỉ♥❣ ❜à ❦✐➸♠ ❞✉②➺t✳ P❤➛♥ ❞÷ t÷ì♥❣ ù♥❣ ✸✷ q✉❛♥ s→t ❦❤ỉ♥❣ ❜à ❦✐➸♠ ❞✉②➺t ✤÷đ❝ ❝❤♦ ữ ữợ P ữ tữỡ ự ✸✷ q✉❛♥ s→t ❦❤æ♥❣ ❜à ❦✐➸♠ ❞✉②➺t ❙❚❚ t ˆi 439 0.03 904 0.2 1092 0.31 1105 0.316 572 0.13 690 0.21 ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· 27 332 0.14 28 380 0.2 29 241 0.13 30 241 0.13 31 435 0.51 32 435 0.55 ✺✷ ❚r♦♥❣ ❘✱ ✤➸ t↕♦ r❛ ❜↔♥❣ sè ❧✐➺✉ tr➯♥✱ sû ❞ö♥❣ ❝➙✉ ❧➺♥❤ s❛✉✿ ❃ ❞❢✷ ❁✲ ❞❛t❛✳❢r❛♠❡✭t❤♦✐❣✐❛♥❂❝✭✹✸✾✱ ✾✵✹✱ ✶✵✾✷✱ ✶✶✵✺✱ ✺✼✷✱ ✻✾✵✱ ✾✵✹✱ ✶✵✾✵✱ ✸✶✺✱ ✸✶✺✱ ✹✸✾✱ ✻✷✽✱ ✷✺✽✱ ✷✺✽✱ ✸✹✼✱ ✺✽✽✱ ✾✺✾✱ ✶✵✻✺✱ ✶✵✻✺✱ ✶✵✽✼✱ ✷✶✻✱ ✸✶✺✱ ✹✺✺✱ ✹✼✸✱ ✷✹✶✱ ✸✶✺✱ ✸✸✷✱ ✸✽✵✱ ✷✹✶✱ ✷✹✶✱ ✹✸✺✱ ✹✸✺✮✱ ♣❤❛♥❞✉❂❝✭✵✳✵✸✱ ✵✳✷✱ ✵✳✸✶✱ ✵✳✸✶✻✱ ✵✳✶✸✱ ✵✳✷✶✱ ✵✳✹✱ ✵✳✺✺✼✱ ✵✳✵✻✱ ✵✳✵✻✱ ✵✳✶✸✽✱ ✵✳✸✷✽✱ ✵✳✵✼✱ ✵✳✵✼✱ ✵✳✶✻✱ ✵✳✺✷✷✱ ✵✳✹✸✱ ✵✳✺✸✱ ✵✳✺✸✱ ✵✳✺✺✱ ✵✳✵✷✱ ✵✳✵✻✱ ✵✳✶✺✱ ✵✳✶✻✺✱ ✵✳✵✻✱ ✵✳✶✷✸✱ ✵✳✶✹✱ ✵✳✷✱ ỗ t ◗✲◗ ❝❤♦ ♣❤➛♥ ❞÷ ❝õ❛ ✸✷ q✉❛♥ s→t ❦❤ỉ♥❣ ❜à ❦✐➸♠ ❞✉②➺t✱ ❝â t❤➸ ❦❤❛✐ ❜→♦ t❤÷ ✈✐➺♥ ✧❙▼Pr❛❝t✐❝❛❧s✧ ✈➔ sû ❞ư♥❣ ❝➙✉ ❧➺♥❤ qq❡①♣✳ ❈ư t❤➸ ♥❤÷ s❛✉✿ ❃ stsPrts rrPrts qq ỗ t ❞÷ ❝õ❛ ✸✷ q✉❛♥ s→t ❦❤ỉ♥❣ ❜à ❦✐➸♠ ❞✉②➺t ✤÷đ❝ ữ ỗ t ố ♠ơ tr♦♥❣ ❍➻♥❤ ✷✳✾ ❝❤➾ r❛ ♣❤➛♥ ❞÷ ❝õ❛ ✸✷ q✉❛♥ s→t ❦❤ỉ♥❣ ❜à ❦✐➸♠ ❞✉②➺t ❝â ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ♠ơ✳ ổ õ ỵ tố ❦➯✳ ✺✳✺ ❚✉ê✐ t❤å tr✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❚❤❡♦ ❝æ♥❣ t❤ù❝ (1.41) t✉ê✐ t❤å tr✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝õ❛ tư ✤✐➺♥ ✤÷đ❝ ❝❤♦ ❜ð✐✿ ∞ ▼❚❚❋ = R(t)dt ∞ ❡①♣ [−(tβ)α ❡①♣(θ1 · Vi + θ2 · Tj )] dt = ✭✷✳✹✺✮ ỷ ổ tự (2.46) ữủt ữợ t ữủ t✉ê✐ t❤å tr✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ ð ❝→❝ ♠ù❝ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ✈➔ ✤✐➺♥ →♣✳ ❈❤➥♥❣ ❤↕♥✱ t✉ê✐ t❤å tr✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ ð 200 V ✈➔ 170 ❈ ✤÷đ❝ t➼♥❤ ❜ð✐✿ ∞ ▼❚❚❋(200V, 170 ❈) = (t)dt R ỗ t ◗✲◗ ❝❤♦ ♣❤➛♥ ❞÷ ❝õ❛ ✸✷ q✉❛♥ s→t ❦❤ỉ♥❣ ❜à ❦✐➸♠ ❞✉②➺t ∞ ❡①♣ −16684655 · = t 664639 2.75 dt ❚r♦♥❣ ❘✱ ✤➸ t➼♥❤ t➼❝❤ ♣❤➙♥ tr➯♥✱ ❝â t❤➸ sû ❞ö♥❣ ❝➙✉ ❧➺♥❤✿ ❃ ✐♥t❡❣r❛♥❞ ❁✲ ❢✉♥❝t✐♦♥✭t✮ ❡①♣✭✲✶✻✻✽✹✻✺✺✯✭①✴✻✻✹✻✸✾✮✂✷✳✼✺✮ ❃ ✐♥t❡❣r❛t❡✭✐♥t❡❣r❛♥❞✱ ❧♦✇❡r ❂ ✵✱ ✉♣♣❡r ❂ ■♥❢✮ ❑➳t q✉↔ t❤✉ ✤÷đ❝ ♥❤÷ s❛✉✿ ✶✸✾✽✳✸✷✼ ✇✐t❤ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❡ ❡rr♦r ❁ ✵✳✵✵✵✷✶ ❉♦ ✤â✱ t✉ê✐ t❤å tr✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ ð 200 V ✈➔ 170 ❈ ❜➡♥❣ ✶✸✾✽✳✸✷✼ ❣✐í✱ ✈ỵ✐ s số ọ ỡ ởt tữỡ tỹ ữợ t➼♥❤ ✤÷đ❝ t✉ê✐ t❤å tr✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝õ❛ tư ✤✐➺♥ ð ❝→❝ ♠ù❝ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ✈➔ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉✳ ❑➳t q✉↔ ✤÷đ❝ ❝❤♦ ♥❤÷ ð ❇↔♥❣ ✷✳✸✿ ◗✉❛♥ s→t ❇↔♥❣ ✷✳✸✱ ♥❤➟♥ t❤➜② r➡♥❣✿ • ❚✉ê✐ t❤å tr✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝õ❛ tử õ ữợ t ổ ✤ê✐ ✈➔ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ t➠♥❣✳ ❈ö t❤➸✱ t✉ê✐ t❤å tr✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝õ❛ ✺✹ ❇↔♥❣ ✷✳✸✿ ❚✉ê✐ t❤å tr✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ ð ❝→❝ ♠ù❝ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ✈➔ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ✣✐➺♥ →♣✭❱✮ ◆❤✐➺t ✤ë(0❈) ❚✉ê✐ t❤å✭❣✐í✮ 200 250 300 350 200 250 300 350 170 170 170 170 180 180 180 180 1398 1045 781 584 1049 784 586 438 tö ✤✐➺♥ ð ♠ù❝ 200 V ✱ 170 ❈ ❧➔ ✶✸✾✽ ❣✐í✱ tr♦♥❣ ❦❤✐ t✉ê✐ t❤å tr✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❧➔ ✶✵✹✺ ❣✐í ð ♠ù❝ 250 V ✱ 170 ❈ ✈➔ ❣✐↔♠ ①✉è♥❣ ❝á♥ ✺✽✹ ❣✐í✱ ð ♠ù❝ 350 V ✱ 170 ❈✳ ❈ơ♥❣ t❤✉ ✤÷đ❝ ♥❤➟♥ ①➨t t÷ì♥❣ tü ❦❤✐ ①➨t ❝ị♥❣ ð ♠ù❝ 180 ❈✳ • tồ tr tử õ ữợ ❣✐↔♠ ❦❤✐ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❦❤æ♥❣ ✤ê✐ ✈➔ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë t➠♥❣✳ ❈ö t❤➸✱ t✉ê✐ t❤å tr✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ ð ♠ù❝ 200 V ✱ 170 ❈ ❧➔ ✶✸✾✽ ❣✐í tr♦♥❣ ❦❤✐ t✉ê✐ t❤å tr✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❧➔ ✶✵✹✾ ❣✐í ð ♠ù❝ 200 V ✱ 180 ❈✳ ❈ơ♥❣ t❤✉ ✤÷đ❝ ♥❤➟♥ ①➨t t÷ì♥❣ tü ❦❤✐ ①➨t ❝ị♥❣ ð ❝→❝ ♠ù❝ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ 250 V, 300 V ❤❛② 350 V ✳ ◆❤÷ ✈➟②✱ tø ✈✐➺❝ ❦✐➸♠ tr❛ sè ❧✐➺✉ ❝❤♦ ✤➳♥ ①➙② ❞ü♥❣ ✈➔ t❤✐➳t ❧➟♣ ♠æ ❤➻♥❤ t✛ ❧➺ rõ✐ r ữợ t t số ố ũ ❧➔ ❦✐➸♠ tr❛ ❧↕✐ ❦➳t q✉↔ ✤➲✉ ❧♦❣✐❝ ✈ỵ✐ ♥❤❛✉✳ ❱➻ ✈➟②✱ ❝â t❤➸ ❦➳t ❧✉➟♥ ✤÷đ❝ r➡♥❣ ♠ỉ ❤➻♥❤ ỹ số tỷ ỗ q✉❛♥ s→t ❧➔ ♣❤ị ❤đ♣✳ ◆â✐ ❝→❝❤ ❦❤→❝✱ ♥❤➟♥ ✤à♥❤✿ ❚✉ê✐ t❤å ❝õ❛ tư ✤✐➺♥ ❝❤à✉ ↔♥❤ ❤÷ð♥❣ ❜ð✐ ♥❤✐➺t õ ỵ tố ✺✺ ❑➳t ❧✉➟♥ ▲✉➟♥ ✈➠♥ ✤✐ t➻♠ ❤✐➸✉ q✉→ tr➻♥❤ ❲❡✐❜✉❧❧ P❍▼ ✈➔ ù♥❣ ❞ư♥❣ t❤➔♥❤ ❝ỉ♥❣ ♠ỉ ❤➻♥❤ t✛ rừ r ợ trữớ ủ rừ r ữợ t t t tö ✤✐➺♥ t❤õ② t✐♥❤ tr♦♥❣ ❝→❝ ✤✐➲✉ ❦✐➺♥ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ✈➔ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉✳ ❑➳t q✉↔ ❝õ❛ ▲✉➟♥ ✈➠♥ ✤➣ ❜ê s✉♥❣ ❝❤♦ ❝→❝ ❝ì sð ❧➼ ❧✉➟♥ ✈➔ ❤♦➔♥ t❤✐➺♥ ❝→❝ ❦✐➸♠ ❝❤ù♥❣ ✤➸ ❦❤➥♥❣ ✤à♥❤ r➡♥❣✿ ✧◆❤✐➺t ✤ë ✈➔ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❝â ↔♥❤ ❤÷ð♥❣ ✤➳♥ t✉ê✐ t❤å ❝õ❛ tư ✤✐➺♥✧✳ ❈→❝ ❦➳t q✉↔ ❝ư t❤➸ ✤÷đ❝ tâ♠ tt ữ s ã ự ữủ r tờ tồ ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ ❧➔ ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ t✉➙♥ t❤❡♦ ♣❤➙♥ ố ã ỹ ữủ ổ t rõ✐ r♦ ❈♦① ❝❤♦ tư ✤✐➺♥ tr÷í♥❣ ❤đ♣ t✉ê✐ t❤å t✉➙♥ t❤❡♦ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤è✐ ❲❡✐❜✉❧❧ ✈ỵ✐ ❤❛✐ ❜✐➳♥ ❧➔ ♥❤✐➺t ã ìợ t ữủ t sè tr♦♥❣ ♠æ ❤➻♥❤ t✛ ❧➺ rõ✐ r♦ ❈♦① ❝❤♦ tử ã ự ữủ sỹ ũ ủ ♠æ ❤➻♥❤✳ ❚ø ✤â ♥❤➟♥ ✤à♥❤✿ ✧❚✉ê✐ t❤å tr✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ ð ❝→❝ ♠ù❝ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ✈➔ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ❧➔ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ✈➔ t✉ê✐ t❤å tr✉♥❣ tử õ ữợ t➠♥❣ ♥❤✐➺t ✤ë ✈➔ ✤✐➺♥ →♣ t❤û ♥❣❤✐➺♠✧ ❧➔ ❝â þ ♥❣❤➽❛ t❤è♥❣ ❦➯✳ ▲✉➟♥ ✈➠♥ ❝ô♥❣ ♠ð r❛ ❝→❝❤ t✐➳♣ ❝➟♥ ❤é trđ ❝❤♦ ✈✐➺❝ sû ❞ư♥❣ ❲❡✐❜✉❧❧ P❍▼ ✤➸ ❞ü ✤♦→♥ ❝→❝ ✤➦❝ t➼♥❤ ✤ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ❝õ❛ ❝→❝ t❤✐➳t ❜à ✤✐➺♥ tû ♥â✐ ❝❤✉♥❣ ❦❤✐ ❝â ✤÷đ❝ ❜ë ❞ú ❧✐➺✉ t❤û ♥❣❤✐➺♠✳ ❚✉② ♥❤✐➯♥✱ ♠æ ❤➻♥❤ ❝â t❤➸ ❦❤ỉ♥❣ ❝á♥ ❤đ♣ ❧➼ ♥ú❛ ❞♦ ❝→❝ ♥❣✉②➯♥ t➢❝ t❤û ♥❣❤✐➺♠ ❜à t❤❛② ✤ê✐✳ ❚❤❡♦ ♥❣✉②➯♥ t➢❝ t❤û ♥❣❤✐➺♠ t➠♥❣ tè❝✱ ❝ì ❝❤➳ ❤ä♥❣ ❝õ❛ ❝→❝ t❤✐➳t ❜à ✤✐➺♥ tû ð ❝→❝ ♠ù❝ ✤✐➲✉ ❦✐➺♥ t❤û ♥❣❤✐➺♠ ✭♥❤✐➺t ✤ë✱ ✤ë ➞♠✱ ✤ë r✉♥❣✱ sè❝ ♥❤✐➺t✱ ➠♥ ♠á♥✱ ❜ö✐✱✳✳✳✮ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ♣❤↔✐ ❣✐è♥❣ ♥❤❛✉ tr♦♥❣ ♠ët ♣❤↕♠ ✈✐ ❝❤♦ ♣❤➨♣ ♥➔♦ ✤â✳ ❱➻ t❤➳ ♠æ ✺✻ ❤➻♥❤ s➩ ❦❤æ♥❣ ❝á♥ ❤đ♣ ❧➼ ❦❤✐ ♠ù❝ ✤✐➲✉ ❦✐➺♥ t❤û ♥❣❤✐➺♠ ✈÷đt q✉→ ♣❤↕♠ ✈✐ ❝❤♦ ♣❤➨♣✳ ❚r♦♥❣ ♥❤ú♥❣ tr÷í♥❣ ❤đ♣ ♥❤÷ ✈➟②✱ s➩ ♣❤↔✐ ①➙② ❞ü♥❣ ♠ët ♠æ ❤➻♥❤ t❤û ♥❣❤✐➺♠ t➠♥❣ tố ợ t t t t ỵ ❤â❛ ❤å❝ ❝õ❛ ❝→❝ ❝ì ❝❤➳ ❤ä♥❣ ✤➸ ✤↔♠ ❜↔♦ t➼♥❤ ❝❤➼♥❤ ①→❝ ❝õ❛ s✉② ❧✉➟♥ t❤è♥❣ ❦➯✳ ◆❣♦➔✐ ✈✐➺❝ ♣❤➙♥ t➼❝❤✱ ❧ü❛ ❝❤å♥ ♠ỉ ❤➻♥❤ ♣❤ị ❤đ♣ t❤➻ ♠ët ②➳✉ tè r➜t q✉❛♥ trå♥❣ ✤➸ ❦❤✐➳♥ ♠æ ❤➻♥❤ ❝â þ ♥❣❤➽❛ ♥➡♠ ð ❜ë sè ❧✐➺✉✳ ❚r♦♥❣ t❤ü❝ t➳ ✤➸ ❝â ♠ët ❜ë sè ❧✐➺✉ ✤õ tèt ❧➔ ♠ët ✈✐➺❝ ❦❤æ♥❣ ❞➵ ❞➔♥❣✳ ❇➯♥ ❝↕♥❤ ✈✐➺❝ ♣❤↔✐ ♥❣❤✐➯♥ ❝ù✉ t❤û ♥❣❤✐➺♠ ♠ët ❝→❝❤ ❦❤♦❛ ❤å❝ ✈➔ ❝❤✉②➯♥ ♥❣❤✐➺♣ ❝á♥ tớ ởt ữủ rt ợ ❱➻ ✈➟② tr♦♥❣ ▲✉➟♥ ✈➠♥✱ ✈✐➺❝ →♣ ♠æ ❤➻♥❤ ❝❤♦ số õ s ỗ q st ♣❤➙♥ t➼❝❤ ✤ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ✈➔ ✤→♥❤ ❣✐→ t✉ê✐ t❤å ❝õ❛ tư ✤✐➺♥ t❤õ② t✐♥❤ ❝ơ♥❣ ❝á♥ r➜t ❤↕♥ ❝❤➳ ✈➔ ♠❛♥❣ t➼♥❤ ❝❤➜t ♠✐♥❤ ❤å❛ ❝❤♦ ❝→❝ t➼♥❤ t♦→♥ ❧➼ t❤✉②➳t✳ ✺✼ ❚➔✐ ❧✐➺✉ t❤❛♠ ❦❤↔♦ ❬✶❪ ❘♦♥s✳ ❑❡♥❡tt ❙❤❡❧❡♠②❛❤✉ ❩❛❝❦s✱ ✧▼♦❞❡r♥ ■♥❞✉str✐❛❧ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝s ✇✐t❤ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ❘✱ ▼■◆■❚❆❇ ❛♥❞ ❏▼P✧✱ ❬✷❪ P❡t❡r ❑✳ ❉✉♥♥· ●♦r❞♦♥ ❑✳ ❙♠②t❤✱ ❊①❛♠♣❧❡s ✐♥ ❘✧✳ ♣♣✳ ✺✵✵✲✺✵✸✳ ✧●❡♥❡r❛❧✐③❡❞ ▲✐♥❡❛r ▼♦❞❡❧s ❲✐t❤ ❬✸❪ ❆❧❡①❛♥❞r❡ ❈✳ ▼❡♥❞❡s✱ ◆❛ss❡r ❋❛r❞✱ ✧❘❡❧✐❛❜✐❧✐t② ▼♦❞❡❧✐♥❣ ❢♦r ❆♣♣❧✐✲ ❛♥❝❡s ❯s✐♥❣ t❤❡ Pr♦♣♦rt✐♦♥❛❧ ❍❛③❛r❞ ▼♦❞❡❧✧✳ ❬✹❪ ❆✳ ❇❡♥❞❡❧❧✱ ❉✳ ❲✳ ❲✐❣❤t♠❛♥✱ ❛♥❞ ❊✳ ❱✳ ❲❛❧❦❡r✱ t✐♦♥❛❧ ❍❛③❛r❞s ▼♦❞❡❧❧✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❘❡❧✐❛❜✐❧✐t②✧✳ ❬✺❪ ❈❧❡t✉s ❏✳ ❑❛✐s❡r✱ ✧❚❤❡ ❈❛♣❛❝✐t♦r ❍❛♥❞❜♦♦❦✧✳ ❬✻❪ ❲✐❧❧✐❛♠ ◗✳ ▼❡❡❦❡r ❛♥❞ ▲✉✐s ❆✳ ❊s❝♦❜❛r✱ ❧✐❛❜✐❧✐t② ❉❛t❛✧✳ ✧❆♣♣❧②✐♥❣ Pr♦♣♦r✲ ✶✾✾✸✱ ♣♣✳ ✽✾✲✾✷✳ ✧❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ▼❡t❤♦❞s ❢♦r ❘❡✲ ❬✼❪ ❨✐s❤✉ ❳✉❡✱ ❊❧✐③❛❜❡t❤ ❉✳ ❙❝❤✐❢❛♥♦✱ ✐♥ ✧❉✐❛❣♥♦st✐❝s ❢♦r t❤❡ ❈♦① ♠♦❞❡❧✧✱ ✷✵✶✼✳ ❬✽❪ ❙✳ ❇♦❜r♦✇s❦✐✱ ▼✳ ❉♦r✐♥❣✱ ❯✳ ❏❡♥s❡♥✱ ❲✳ ❙❝❤✐♥❦♦t❤❡✱ ✧❘❡❧✐❛❜✐❧✐t② ❞✐❝t✐♦♥ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❈♦① ♣r♦♣♦rt✐♦♥❛❧ ❤❛③❛r❞s ♠♦❞❡❧✧✱ ✷✵✶✶✳ ❬✾❪ ▲✐♥❣❧✐♥❣ ▲✐✱ ❉♦♥❣❥✉❛♥ ▼❛✱ ❛♥❞ ❩❤✐❣❛♥❣ ▲✐✱ ♣r❡✲ ✧❈♦① ✲ ♣r♦♣♦rt✐♦♥❛❧ ❤❛③✲ ❛r❞s ♠♦❞❡❧✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❛♥❛❧✉s✐s ✲ ❆ st✉❞② ♦❢ ❡❧❡❝tr♦♠❛❣♥❡t✐❝ r❡❧❛②s ❞❛t❛✧✱ ✷✵✶✺✳ ❬✶✵❪ ▲❡❝t✉r❡r✿ ❉r✳ ❳✐❛♥ ❩❤♦✉✱ ❬✶✶❪ ❩✳ ❚❛♥❣ ❡t ❛❧✱ ✧▲❡❝t✉r❡ ♥♦t❡s✧✳ ✧❆♥❛❧②s✐s ♦❢ s✐❣♥✐❢✐❝❛♥t ❢❛❝t♦rs ♦♥ ❝❛❜❧❡ ❢❛✐❧✉r❡ ✉s✐♥❣ t❤❡ ❈♦① ♣r♦♣♦rt✐♦♥❛❧ ❤❛③❛r❞ ♠♦❞❡❧✧ ♥♦✳ ✷✱ ♣♣✳ ✾✺✶✕✾✺✼✱ ❆♣r✳ ✷✵✶✹✳ ✺✽ ■❊❊❊ ❚r❛♥s✳ P♦✇❡r ❉❡❧✳✱ ✈♦❧✳ ✷✾✱ ❬✶✷❪ ❉✳ ❲✳ ❲✐❣❤t♠❛♥ ❛♥❞ ❆✳ ❇❡♥❞❡❧❧✱ ✧❚❤❡ ♣r❛❝t✐❝❛❧ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♣r♦♣♦r✲ t✐♦♥❛❧ ❤❛③❛r❞s ♠♦❞❡❧❧✐♥❣✱✧ ❘❡❧✳ ❊♥❣✳✱ ✈♦❧✳ ✶✺✱ ♥♦✳ ✶✱ ♣♣✳ ✷✾✕✺✸✱ ✶✾✽✻✳ ❬✶✸❪ ❆✳ ❚✐✇❛r✐ ❛♥❞ ❉✳ ❘♦②✱ ✧❊st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ r❡❧✐❛❜✐❧✐t② ♦❢ ♠♦❜✐❧❡ ❤❛♥❞s❡ts ✉s✐♥❣ ❈♦①✲♣r♦♣♦rt✐♦♥❛❧ ❤❛③❛r❞ ♠♦❞❡❧✱✧ ▼✐❝r♦❡❧❡❝tr♦♥✳ ❘❡❧✳✱ ✈♦❧✳ ✺✸✱ ♥♦✳ ✸✱ ♣♣✳ ✹✽✶✕✹✽✼✱ ▼❛r✳ ✷✵✶✸✳ ❬✶✹❪ ❏✳ ▼❛✱ ❏✳ ❇✳ ❨❛♦✱ ❛♥❞ ❈✳ ❏✳ ❳✐♥✱ ✧❚❤❡ ❡❢❢❡❝t ♦❢ t❡♠♣❡r❛t✉r❡ ❛♥❞ ❤✉✲ ♠✐❞✐t② ♦♥ r❡❧✐❛❜✐❧✐t② ♦❢ ❡❧❡❝tr✐❝❛❧ ❛❡r♦s♣❛❝❡ ❝♦♥♥❡❝t♦r✱✧ ❊❧❡❝tr♦♠❡❝❤✳ ❈♦♠♣♦♥✳✱ ✈♦❧✳ ✸✹✱ ♥♦✳ ✶✱ ♣♣✳ ✷✽✕✸✵✱ ❋❡❜✳ ✷✵✶✹✳ ❬✶✺❪ ▼✳✲❨✳ ❨♦✉✱ ❋✳ ▲✐✉✱ ❛♥❞ ●✳ ▼❡♥❣✱ ✧Pr♦♣♦rt✐♦♥❛❧ ❤❛③❛r❞s ♠♦❞❡❧ ❢♦r r❡❧✐❛❜✐❧✐t② ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ♦❢ s♦❧❞❡r ❥♦✐♥ts ✉♥❞❡r ✈❛r✐♦✉s ❞r♦♣✲✐♠♣❛❝t ❛♥❞ ✈✐✲ Pr♦❝✳ ■♥st✳ ▼❡❝❤✳ ❊♥❣✳ ❖✱ ❏✳ ❘✐s❦ ❘❡❧✳✱ ✈♦❧✳ ✷✷✻✱ ♥♦✳ ✷✱ ♣♣✳ ✶✾✹✕✷✵✷✱ ✷✵✶✷✳ ❜r❛t✐♦♥ ❝♦♥❞✐t✐♦♥s✱✧ ❬✶✻❪ ■✳ P❡rss♦♥✱ ✧❊ss❛②s ♦♥ t❤❡ ❆ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥ ♦❢ Pr♦♣♦rt✐♦♥❛❧ ❍❛③❛r❞s ✐♥ ❈♦① ❘❡❣r❡ss✐♦♥✳✧ ❯♣♣s❛❧❛✱ ❙✇❡❞❡♥✿ ❯♣♣s❛❧❛ ❯♥✐✈✳✱ ✷✵✵✷✳ ❬✶✼❪ ❘✳ ❱✐❡rt❧✱ ✧❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ▼❡t❤♦❞s ✐♥ ❆❝❝❡❧❡r❛t❡❞ ▲✐❢❡ ❚❡st✐♥❣✳✧ ●☎♦tt✐♥❣❡♥✱ ●❡r♠❛♥②✿ ❱❛♥❞❡♥❤♦❡❝❦ ✫ ❘✉♣r❡❝❤t✱ ✶✾✽✽✳ ❬✶✽❪ ❲✳ ❏✳ ❋♦♥t❛♥❛✱ ✧❊❧❡❝r♦♠❛❣♥❡t✐❝ r❡❧❛② r❡❧✐❛❜✐❧✐t② ♣r❡❞✐❝t✐♦♥s ❜② ❞❡✲ ■❊❊❊ ❚r❛♥s✳ P❛rts✱ ▼❛t❡r✳✱ P❛❝❦❛❣✳✱ ✈♦❧✳ ✶✱ ♥♦✳ ✶✱ ♣♣✳ ✸✵✾✕✸✶✾✱ ❏✉♥✳ ✶✾✻✺✳ s✐❣♥❡❞ ❧✐❢❡ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥ts ❛♥❞ ❲❡✐❜✉❧❧ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s✱✧ ❬✶✾❪ ❍✳✲▼✳ ❋✉ ❛♥❞ ❨✳✲❇✳ ❩❤❛♥❣✱ ✧▼❡t❤♦❞ ♦❢ r❡❧✐❛❜✐❧✐t② ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❢♦r t✐♠❡ tr✉♥❝❛t❡❞ ③❡r♦✲❢❛✐❧✉r❡ ❞❛t❛ ❜❛s❡❞ ♦♥ ❲❡✐❜✉❧❧ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥✱✧ ❏✳ ❆❡r♦s♣✳ P♦✇❡r✱ ✈♦❧✳ ✷✺✱ ♥♦✳ ✶✷✱ ♣♣✳ ✷✽✵✼✕✷✽✶✵✱ ✷✵✶✵✳ ❬✷✵❪ ❩✳✲❇✳ ❲❛♥❣✱ ●✳✲❋✳ ❩❤❛✐✱ ❛♥❞ ❳✳✲❨✳ ❍✉❛♥❣✱ ✏❑✐♥❡t✐❝ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❝♦♥t❛❝t r❡s✐st❛♥❝❡ ✐♥❝r❡♠❡♥t ♦❢ ❡❧❡❝tr♦♠❛❣♥❡t✐❝ r❡❧❛② ✐♥ st♦r❛❣❡✱✑ ❚r❛♥s✳ ❈❤✐♥❛ ❊❧❡❝tr♦t❡❝❤✳ ❙♦❝✳✱ ✈♦❧✳ ✷✼✱ ♥♦✳ ✺✱ ♣♣✳ ✷✵✺✕✷✶✶✱ ▼❛② ✷✵✶✷✳ ❬✷✶❪ ❏✳ ❲✳ ▼❝P❤❡rs♦♥✱ ❘❡❧✐❛❜✐❧✐t② P❤②s✐❝s ❛♥❞ ❊♥❣✐♥❡❡r✐♥❣✿ ❚✐♠❡✲t♦✲ ❋❛✐❧✉r❡ ▼♦❞❡❧✐♥❣✳ ◆❡✇ ❨♦r❦✱ ◆❨✱ ❯❙❆✿ ❙♣r✐♥❣❡r✲❱❡r❧❛❣✱ ✷✵✶✵✳ ❬✷✷❪ ❊✳ ❚❛❦❛♥♦ ❛♥❞ ❑✳ ▼❛♥♦✱ ✧❚❤❡♦r❡t✐❝❛❧ ❧✐❢❡t✐♠❡ ♦❢ st❛t✐❝ ❝♦♥t❛❝ts✱✧ ■❊❊❊ ❚r❛♥s✳ P❛rts✱ ▼❛t❡r✳✱ P❛❝❦❛❣✳✱ ✈♦❧✳ ✸✱ ♥♦✳ ✹✱ ♣♣✳ ✶✽✹✕✶✽✺✱ ❉❡❝✳ ✶✾✻✼✳ ✺✾ ... ❝❤ù♥❣ ✤➸ ❦❤➥♥❣ ✤à♥❤ r➡♥❣✿ ✧◆❤✐➺t ✤ë õ ữ ợ tờ tồ ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ t❤õ② t✐♥❤ ✈➔ t✉ê✐ t❤å ❝â ①✉ ữợ t tỷ õ ữợ t➠♥❣✧✳ ▲✉➟♥ ✈➠♥ ❝ô♥❣ ♠ð r❛ ❝→❝❤ t✐➳♣ ❝➟♥ ❤é trđ ❝❤♦ ✈✐➺❝ sû ❞ư♥❣ ❲❡✐❜✉❧❧ P❍▼ ✤➸ ❞ü ✤♦→♥... ❱ỵ✐ ✈❡❝t♦ ❜✐➳♥ θ = (θ1 , , θk )✱ ♠❛ tr➟♥ ❧÷đ♥❣ t❤ỉ♥❣ t✐♥ ❋✐s❤❡r I(θ) ❧➔ ♠ët ♠❛ tr➟♥ ổ k ì k ợ tỷ tr➼ ❤➔♥❣ i✱ ❝ët j ❝â ❞↕♥❣✿ ∂ ❧♦❣L(θ) I(θ)ij = −E ∂θi ∂θj ✭✶✳✺✵✮ ❈â t❤➸ ✈✐➳t ♠❛ tr ữợ L()... ❞ư♥❣ t÷ì♥❣ ù♥❣✳ ✺ Ù♥❣ ❞ö♥❣ ♣❤➙♥ t➼❝❤ ✤ë t✐♥ ❝➟② ❝õ❛ tö ✤✐➺♥ ❚ö ✤✐➺♥ ❧➔ ♠ët tr♦♥❣ ♥❤ú♥❣ ❧✐♥❤ ❦✐➺♥ tỷ tử ỗ t ✤÷đ❝ ❣å✐ ❧➔ ❦❤✉♥❣✱ ✤÷đ❝ ♣❤➙♥ t→❝❤ ❜ð✐ ♠ët ❝❤➜t ❝→❝❤ ✤✐➺♥✱ ❣å✐ ✸✼ ❧➔ ✤✐➺♥ ♠æ✐ ✭ ❣✐➜②✱

Ngày đăng: 23/02/2021, 09:11

TÀI LIỆU CÙNG NGƯỜI DÙNG

TÀI LIỆU LIÊN QUAN

w