Climate change vulnerability assessment for ninh thuan’s tourism sector

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY TRAN THI MY PHUONG CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR NINH THUAN’S TOURISM SECTOR MASTER THESIS KHANH HOA - 2019 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING NHA TRANG UNIVERSITY TRAN THI MY PHUONG Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ninh Thuan’s Tourism Sector MASTER THESIS Marine Ecosystem Management and Climate Change Major: 1313/QĐ-ĐHNT Topic allocation Decision: Decision on establishing the Committee: Defense date: August 01 to August 02, 2019 Supervisors: Prof MARGRETHE AANESEN Dr QUACH THI KHANH NGOC Chairman: Faculty of Graduate Studies: KHANH HOA - 2019 UNDERTAKING I undertake that the thesis entitled: “CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR NINH THUAN’S TOURISM SECTOR” is my work The work has not been presented elsewhere for assessment until the time this thesis is submitted Nha Trang, Date 26 month 05 year 2019 Author Tran Thi My Phuong i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS During the time of writing, I received support and help from many people I would first like to thank my supervisors, Prof Margrethe Aanesen and Dr Quach Thi Khanh Ngoc for their constant support which was very generous with their time and knowledge and assisted me in each step to complete the thesis They steered me in the right direction whenever they thought I needed it It would never have been possible for me to take this work to completion without their support and encouragement I am grateful to the sponsored and scholarship by NORAD and Nha Trang University (NTU) I am also thankful to Prof Dr Nguyen Thi Kim Anh, who was always so helpful and provided me with their assistance throughout my years of study I want to thank the experts of South Central Regional Hydro-meteorology center who were involved in the focus group interview and help me to the choice of criteria for this thesis Without their enthusiastic participation and input, the focus group interview and the choice of criteria could not have been successfully conducted I would also thank my colleagues in the South Central Regional Hydro-meteorology center They were supporting me wholeheartedly I’m grateful for all of their help Finally, I must express my very profound gratitude to my parents, my brother, and my sisters for providing me with unfailing support and continuous encouragement throughout my years of study and through the process of researching and writing this thesis This accomplishment would not have been possible without them Thank you! Nha Trang, Date 26 month 05 year 2019 Author Tran Thi My Phuong ii TABLE OF CONTENTS CONTENT PAGE UNDERTAKING i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ii TABLE OF CONTENTS iii LIST OF SYMBOLS v LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS vii LIST OF TABLES viii LIST OF FIGURES ix LIST OF GRAPHS x ABSTRACT CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background 1.2 Research objectives 1.3 Research significance 1.4 Scope of research 1.5 Research outline CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Key concepts 2.1.1 Climate change 2.1.2 Tourism 2.1.3 Vulnerability 2.2 The theoretical basis for assessing vulnerability to climate change on tourism 2.2.1 Approaches to vulnerability assessment to climate change 2.2.2 Analysis framework 2.3 Review of related literature and studies 2.4 Ninh Thuan Climatic and Socio-economic conditions 10 2.4.1 Ninh Thuan Socio-economic conditions 10 2.4.2 Ninh Thuan climatic 11 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY 15 3.1 The index method to assess climate change vulnerability 15 3.2 The analytic Hierarchy process (AHP) and calculating the index of the components by AHP 18 3.2.1 The AHP structure 19 3.2.2 Flow chart of the AHP 21 3.2.3 Judgment Scales and Consistency Measure in AHP 22 CHAPTER 4: RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 24 4.1 4.1.1 4.1.2 4.1.3 Results 24 Weight value of the Exposure Index 24 Weight value of the Sensitivity Index 31 Weight value of the Adaptive Capacity Index 36 iii 4.1.4 Calculating the Vulnerability Index 42 4.2 Discussion 43 4.2.1 The level of the Exposure Index 43 4.2.2 The level of the Sensitivity Index 44 4.2.3 The level of the Adaptive Capacity Index 45 4.2.4 The level of the Vulnerability Index 46 CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 48 LIST OF REFERENCES 51 APPENDIX 54 iv LIST OF SYMBOLS CCVI Climate Change Vulnerability Index E Exposure Index S Sensitivity Index AC Adaptive Capacity Index CR Consistency Ratio C Component index i The locality j The indicator WXij The weight value of the j-th indicator in the locality i Xij Normalized value of indicator j in the locality i; Xij(r) The real value of the indicator ij; Min Xij Smallest real value of ij indicator in all localities Max Xij Largest real value of ij indicator in all localities; λmax Largest eigen-value CI Consistency Index n Number of criteria RI Random Index (depends on the number of criteria) CE1 Criteria of the Exposure CE2 Criteria of the Exposure CE3 Criteria of the Exposure CS1 Criteria of the Sensitivity CS2 Criteria of the Sensitivity CS3 Criteria of the Sensitivity v CA1 Criteria of the Adaptive Capacity CA2 Criteria of the Adaptive Capacity CA3 Criteria of the Adaptive Capacity vi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AHP Analytical Hierarchy Process CC Climate Change IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development UNWTO World Tourism Organization SWOT Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, and Threat Analysis FCEM The Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method TOPSIS The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal solution GIS Geographic Information Systems RCP4.5 Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 vii LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE Table 3-1 The suite of indicator (Source: Lan Huong, 2015) 15 Table 3-2 The scale for judgments in the AHP method (Source: Saaty, 1994) 23 Table 4-1 The Weight value of The Exposure Indicators 28 Table 4-2 The Exposure Data 29 Table 4-3 The Exposure data was normalized 30 Table 4-4 The Exposure Index 30 Table 4-5 The Weight value of The Sensitivity Indices 34 Table 4-6 The data of Sensitivity 35 Table 4-7 The Sensitivity Data was normalized 36 Table 4-8 The Sensitivity Index 36 Table 4-9 The Weight value Of the Adaptive Capacity 39 Table 4-10 The data of Adaptive Capacity 41 Table 4-11 The Adaptive Capacity Data was normalized 42 Table 4-12 The Adaptive Capacity Index 42 Table 4-13 The Climate change vulnerability index and components index 42 viii frequency Drought frequency Flood frequency The variations in the annual mean temperatures The variations in the annual mean temperatures A The variations in the annual highest temperatures A The variations in the annual lowest temperatures A Number of hot days in the year (> = 35 ° C) A Number of heavy rain days in the year (> = 50mm) A The variations in the annual mean rainfall A Flood frequency A The variations in the annual mean temperatures A The variations in the annual highest temperatures A The variations in the annual lowest temperatures A Number of hot days in the year (> = 35 ° C) A Number of heavy rain days in the year (> = 50mm) A The variations in the annual mean rainfall A The variations in the annual mean temperatures A The variations in the annual highest temperatures A The variations in the annual lowest temperatures A Number of hot days in the year (> = 35 ° C) A Number of heavy rain days in the year (> = 50mm) A The variations in the annual mean rainfall A The variations in the annual highest temperatures The variations in the annual lowest temperatures 58 A The variations in the annual highest temperatures Number of hot days in the year (> = 35 ° C) A Number of heavy rain days in the year (> = 50mm) A The variations in the annual mean rainfall A The variations in the annual lowest temperatures A Number of hot days in the year (> = 35 ° C) Number of heavy rain days in the year (> = 50mm) The variations in the annual mean rainfall A Number of hot days in the year (> = 35 ° C) A The variations in the annual lowest Number of heavy rain days in the year (> temperatures = 50mm) The variations in the annual mean rainfall Number of hot days in the year (>= 35 ° C) A Number of heavy rain days in the year (> = 50mm) The variations in the annual mean rainfall Number of heavy rain days in the The variations in the annual mean rainfall year (>= 50mm) A A 2 Ranking the priority exposure indicator follow the criteria ‘tourism resources’ B Priority Priority indicator level (A or B) Drought frequency A Flood frequency A The variations in the annual mean temperatures A The variations in the annual highest temperatures A The variations in the annual lowest temperatures A Number of hot days in the year (> = 35 ° C) A Number of heavy rain days in the year (> = 50mm) A Indicators A Storm frequency 59 The variations in the annual mean rainfall A Flood frequency Drought frequency Flood frequency The variations in the annual mean temperatures A The variations in the annual highest temperatures A The variations in the annual lowest temperatures A Number of hot days in the year (> = 35 ° C) A Number of heavy rain days in the year (> = 50mm) A The variations in the annual mean rainfall A The variations in the annual mean temperatures A The variations in the annual highest temperatures A The variations in the annual lowest temperatures A Number of hot days in the year (> = 35 ° C) A Number of heavy rain days in the year (> = 50mm) A The variations in the annual mean rainfall A The variations in the annual highest temperatures A The variations in the annual lowest temperatures The variations in the annual mean temperatures The variations in the annual highest Number of hot days in the year (> = 35 ° C) A Number of heavy rain days in the year (> = 50mm) A The variations in the annual mean rainfall A The variations in the annual lowest temperatures 60 temperatures The variations in the annual lowest temperatures A Number of heavy rain days in the year (> = 50mm) A The variations in the annual mean rainfall B Number of hot days in the year (> = 35 ° C) A Number of heavy rain days in the year (> = 50mm) The variations in the annual mean rainfall Number of heavy rain days in the year (> = 50mm) Number of hot days in the year (>= 35 ° C) Number of heavy rain days in the year (>= 50mm) Number of hot days in the year (> = 35 ° C) A The variations in the annual mean rainfall The variations in the annual mean rainfall A The sensitivity indicator Ranking the sensitivity indicator follow the criteria ‘the extreme weather events’ Indicators A B Number of the classified markets, supermarkets, and commercial centers Number of tourists Number of the classified markets, supermarkets, and commercial centers Priority Priority indicator level (A or B) A Number of accommodation establishments A Number of national parks A Number of resorts A Number of Historical and cultural relics A Types of tourism A Number of accommodation establishments A Number of national parks Number of resorts A Number of Historical and cultural 61 A relics A Number of national parks B Number of resorts Number of accommodation establishments Number of national parks Number of Historical and cultural relic A Types of tourism B Number of resorts A Number of Historical and cultural relics Number of resorts Number of Historical and cultural relics Types of tourism Types of tourism A Number of Historical and cultural relics A Types of tourism A Types of tourism A Ranking the sensitivity indicator follow the criteria ‘temperature variations’ Indicators A Number of tourists Number of the classified markets, supermarkets, and commercial centers Priority Priority indicator level (A or B) B Number of the classified markets, supermarkets, and commercial centers A Number of accommodation establishments A Number of national parks A Number of resorts A Number of Historical and cultural relics A Types of tourism A Number of accommodation establishments A Number of national parks A Number of resorts A Number of Historical and cultural relics A Types of tourism A 62 Number of accommodation establishments Number of national parks A Number of resorts A Number of Historical and cultural relic A Types of tourism A Number of resorts Number of national parks Number of resorts Number of Historical and cultural relics A Types of tourism A Number of Historical and cultural relics Types of tourism B Number of Historical Types of tourism and cultural relics B Ranking the sensitivity indicator follow the criteria ‘ Pripicitate variations’ Indicators A Number of tourists Number of the classified markets, supermarkets, and commercial centers Number of accommodation Priority Priority indicator level (A or B) B Number of the classified markets, supermarkets, and commercial centers A Number of accommodation establishments A Number of national parks A Number of resorts A Number of Historical and cultural relics A Types of tourism A Number of accommodation establishments A Number of national parks Number of resorts A Number of Historical and cultural relics B Types of tourism B Number of national parks B Number of resorts A 63 establishments Number of Historical and cultural relic B Types of tourism Number of national parks Number of resorts Number of Historical and cultural relics Number of resorts A Number of Historical and cultural relics B Types of tourism A Number of Historical and cultural relics B Types of tourism B Types of tourism A The adaptive capacity indicator Ranking Priority indicator follow the criteria ‘prevention.’ Indicators A Employed population labor force rate Priority Priority indicator level (A or B) B The rate of households using electricity A The rate of households using hygienic water A The rate of commune, wards meeting the national health standard A The rate of households with solid houses A The rate of commune with Concrete Pavement A Per capita income per year A The rate of non-farm income The rate of households using electricity A The budget for responding to climate change Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change The rate of households using hygienic water The rate of commune, wards meeting the national health standard 64 The rate of households with solid houses The rate of commune with Concrete Pavement B Per capita income per year B The rate of non-farm income B The budget for responding to climate B change Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change The rate of households using hygienic water B The rate of households with solid houses The rate of commune with Concrete Pavement B Per capita income per year B The rate of non-farm income B Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change B The rate of households with solid houses The rate of commune with Concrete Pavement B Per capita income per year B The rate of non-farm income B The budget for responding to climate B change Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change B The rate of commune with Concrete Pavement The rate of households with solid houses The rate of commune, wards meeting the national health standard The budget for responding to climate B change The rate of commune, wards meeting the national health standard 5 Per capita income per year B The rate of non-farm income B The budget for responding to climate B change 65 Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change B Per capita income per year The rate of non-farm income B The rate of commune The budget for responding to climate with Concrete B change Pavement Number of plans, strategies, and B actions to respond to climate change The rate of non-farm income The budget for responding to climate Per capita income per B change year Number of plans, strategies, and B actions to respond to climate change The rate of non-farm income The budget for responding to climate change The budget for responding to climate B change Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change B Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change Ranking Priority indicator follow the criteria ‘mitigation.’ Indicators A Employed population labor force rate Priority Priority indicator level (A or B) B The rate of households using electricity The rate of households using hygienic water The rate of commune, wards meeting the national health standard The rate of households with solid houses A The rate of commune with Concrete Pavement A Per capita income per year A The rate of non-farm income A The budget for responding to climate change A 66 Number of plans, strategies, and actions A to respond to climate change The rate of households using electricity The rate of households using hygienic water The rate of commune, wards meeting the national health standard The rate of households with solid houses A The rate of commune with Concrete Pavement A Per capita income per year The rate of non-farm income The budget for responding to climate change Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change A A A The rate of commune, wards meeting the national health standard The rate of households using hygienic water The rate of households with solid houses A The rate of commune with Concrete Pavement A Per capita income per year A The rate of non-farm income A The budget for responding to climate change The rate of commune, wards meeting the national health standard A Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change A The rate of households with solid houses A The rate of commune with Concrete Pavement A Per capita income per year A The rate of non-farm income A The budget for responding to climate change Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change 67 A A The rate of households with solid houses The rate of commune with Concrete Pavement A Per capita income per year A The rate of non-farm income A The budget for responding to climate change Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change A A Per capita income per year The rate of commune with Concrete Pavement The rate of non-farm income The budget for responding to climate change The budget for responding to climate change A A 2 Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change The rate of non-farm income The budget for responding to climate Per capita income change per year Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change The rate of nonfarm income 1 The budget for responding to climate change Number of plans, strategies, and actions B to respond to climate change Number of plans, strategies, and actions B to respond to climate change Ranking Priority indicator following criteria ‘adaptation.’ Indicators A Employed population labor force rate Priority Priority indicator level (A or B) B The rate of households using electricity A The rate of households using hygienic water A The rate of commune, wards meeting the national health standard A The rate of households with solid houses A 68 The rate of commune with Concrete Pavement A Per capita income per year A The rate of non-farm income A The budget for responding to climate change A Number of plans, strategies, and actions A to respond to climate change The rate of households using hygienic water The rate of commune, wards meeting the national health standard The rate of households with solid houses The rate of The rate of commune with Concrete households using Pavement electricity Per capita income per year The rate of non-farm income The budget for responding to climate change B B B B Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change B The rate of commune, wards meeting the national health standard B The rate of households with solid houses B The rate of commune with Concrete Pavement B B B The rate of households using Per capita income per year hygienic water The rate of non-farm income The budget for responding to climate change Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change The rate of commune, wards meeting the national health B B B 4 The rate of households with solid houses The rate of commune with Concrete Pavement 69 standard Per capita income per year The rate of non-farm income B The budget for responding to climate change Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change B B The rate of commune with Concrete Pavement Per capita income per year The rate of The rate of non-farm income households with The budget for responding to climate solid houses change Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change The rate of commune with Concrete Pavement Per capita income per year The rate of nonfarm income The budget for responding to climate change B B B B 2 Per capita income per year The rate of non-farm income The budget for responding to climate change B Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change B The rate of non-farm income B The budget for responding to climate change B Number of plans, strategies, and actions B to respond to climate change The budget for responding to climate change Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change Number of plans, strategies, and actions to respond to climate change Ranking the criteria Exposure A B Priority criteria (A or B) Number of Tourism A Criteria 70 Priority level (19) tourists infrastructure Tourism resources Tourism infrastructure A Tourism resources Sensitivity Priority criteria (A or B) Priority level (1-9) A A A Priority level (1-9) B Priority criteria (A or B) Mitigation A Adaptation A Adaptation B Criteria A B Temperature Variations Extreme weather events Precipitate Variations Temperature Variations Precipitate Variations Adaptive capacity Criteria A Prevention Mitigation Appendix 2.a Weight calculation (Meixner and Haas 2002) 71 Appendix 2.b Eigen Vector (Götze 2008) Saaty defined λmax as the largest eigenvector of the matrix A Where: i  ri wi aij n  And max  i1 n 72 i ... TRANG UNIVERSITY TRAN THI MY PHUONG Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Ninh Thuan’s Tourism Sector MASTER THESIS Marine Ecosystem Management and Climate Change Major: 1313/QĐ-ĐHNT Topic... undertake that the thesis entitled: ? ?CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR NINH THUAN’S TOURISM SECTOR? ?? is my work The work has not been presented elsewhere for assessment until the time this... the vulnerability index, finally - assessing the climate change vulnerability on tourism through the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) Research results show that climate change causes vulnerability