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The vulnerability of a system is a function of its exposure to change, its sensitivity to such change, and its capacity to adapt to it. Vulnerability is a complex concept having many interacting dimensions (environmental, economic, social, political and geographic). A vulnerability assessment should answer the question “what (or who) is vulnerable to what”. In theory, assessment of vulnerability to climate change should take into account both the evolution of the system and the pressures and risks with which it will be confronted.
0.50 cm spine for 100pg on 90g paper 183 183 FAO FORESTRY PAPER Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people – a framework methodology Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people A framework methodology Negative impacts of climate change on forests threaten the delivery of crucial wood and non-wood goods and environmental services on which an estimated 1.6 billion people fully or partly depend Assessment of the vulnerability of forests and forest-dependent people to climate change is a necessary first step for identifying the risks and the most vulnerable areas and people, and for developing measures for adaptation and targeting them for specific contexts This publication provides practical technical guidance for forest vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change It describes the elements that should be considered for different time horizons and outlines a structured approach for conducting these assessments The framework will guide practitioners in conducting a step-by-step analysis and will facilitate the choice and use of appropriate tools and methods Background information is provided separately in text boxes, to assist readers with differing amounts of experience in forestry, climate change and assessment practices The publication will provide useful support to any vulnerability assessment with a forest- and tree-related component 789251 ISSN 0258-6150 319819 CA7064EN/1/11.19 FAO A framework methodology FAO FORESTRY PAPER 183 ISSN 0258-6150 ISBN 978-92-5-131981-9 Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and 183 forest-dependent people FAO FORESTRY PAPER A framework methodology by A Meybeck S Rose V Gitz FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Rome, 2019 Required citation: FAO and CIFOR 2019 FAO Framework Methodology for Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments of Forests and Forest Dependent People Rome The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) or the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO or CIFOR in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO or CIFOR ISSN 0258-6150 [Print] ISSN 2706-8773 [Online] ISBN 978-92-5-131981-9 © FAO, 2019 Some rights reserved This work is made available under the Creative Commons AttributionNonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by-nc-sa/3.0/igo/legalcode) Under the terms of this licence, this work may be copied, redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes, provided that the work is appropriately cited In any use of this work, there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization, products or services The use of the FAO logo is not permitted If the work is adapted, then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons license If a translation of this work is created, it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation: “This translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation The original English edition shall be the authoritative edition.” Disputes arising under the licence that cannot be settled amicably will be resolved by mediation and arbitration as described in Article of the licence except as otherwise provided herein The applicable mediation rules will be the mediation rules of the World Intellectual Property Organization http://www wipo.int/amc/en/mediation/rules and any arbitration will be in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) Third-party materials Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party, such as tables, figures or images, are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user Sales, rights and licensing FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/ publications) and can be purchased through publications-sales@fao.org Requests for commercial use should be submitted via: www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to: copyright@fao.org Cover photo: Villagers dependent on the forest for fuelwood, Maluku Province, Indonesia ©Ulet Ifansasti/CIFOR iii Contents Foreword vii Acknowledgements viii Acronyms ix Executive summary x Introduction Vulnerability, risk and resilience What is a vulnerability assessment? Moving from vulnerability assessment to adaptive measures Using the framework methodology Defining the objectives, scope and means 11 Identifying the project team 11 Defining clear objectives .11 Scoping 11 Means and resources 12 Defining the approach 13 Engaging with stakeholders 16 Describing the situation and state of the forests and trees 19 Biophysical situation 20 Biological composition of the forest 20 Current state of the forest 21 Forest functions and services 21 Trends and potential vulnerabilities unrelated to climate change 24 Legal status, institutions and governance .27 Legal status and institutions governing the forest 27 Governance and management 27 Risk management 28 Tenure and access rights 29 Prospective institutional and governance trends and plans 30 iv Describing the forest-dependent people 33 Number and characteristics of forest-dependent people 34 Socio-economic contribution of the forest 35 Characterizing the dependence 36 Vulnerabilities of forest-dependent people 36 Gender specificities 37 Climate change and climate-related risks in the region where the forest is located 39 Analysis of historical and current climate-related events and risks 39 Climate change projections 39 Potential impacts of climate change on forests and trees, and their specific vulnerabilities 43 Direct and indirect impacts 44 Combination with other vulnerabilities 47 Main forest vulnerability points 48 Potential impacts of climate change on forest-dependent people, and their specific vulnerabilities 51 Biophysical impacts 55 Economic impacts 55 Combination with other vulnerabilities (including those of institutional origin) 55 Analysis of the main points of vulnerability of forest-dependent people 56 Communicating the results and moving ahead 63 Document the process and share the findings 63 Plan subsequent steps to identify and promote adaptation options 63 10 Good practices and principles for vulnerability assessments 67 References 71 v Tables Key features of the outcome and contextual perspectives 14 Examples of information that can be used for evaluating exposure, sensitivity, impacts and adaptive capacity in a forest vulnerability assessment 48 Figures Components of vulnerability to climate change Vulnerability and resilience The relationship of adaptation measures to factors that affect the vulnerability and resilience of ecosociological systems Framework for integrating adaptations identified in vulnerability assessment into forest management planning and monitoring programmes Forest and land-use transition curve 19 Concept pyramid of forest ecosystem services 23 Cascading impacts of climate change on food security and nutrition 52 Risk matrix for rating disturbances in terms of their likelihood of occurrence and the seriousness of the consequences 54 Computation of the vulnerability from factors that influence forest cover using multifactorial spatial analysis 58 10 Validity quadrant for ranking potential actions for addressing vulnerability to disturbances 64 Boxes Addressing data challenges: the use of proxies 13 Some well-known approaches to vulnerability assessment 15 Classification of forest functions and services 22 Balancing trade-offs among forest users: an example from Sweden 29 Diverse forms of forest dependence 33 Climate change effects on wildfire risk 43 Climate change effects on pest risks 44 Methods and tools for assessing the vulnerability of forests and forest ecosystem services 45 Resources on species mapping 49 10 Role of forests in reducing human vulnerability 53 11 Participatory methods and tools for assessing impacts of climate change on the vulnerabilities of forest-dependent people 53 12 Vulnerability assessment of Mediterranean forests 56 vi 13 CRiSTAL Forests: a tool for screening community-based risk 59 14 Good practice and lessons learned in assessing climate change impacts and vulnerability 67 15 Principles for effective vulnerability assessments 69 vii Foreword Negative impacts of climate change on forests, which are already apparent in many places, threaten the delivery of crucial wood and non-wood goods and environmental services on which an estimated 1.6 billion people fully or partly depend While some of the problems associated with climate change are emerging gradually, immediate action is needed to build resilience into forests and people’s livelihoods Forests and people constitute an integrated socio-ecological system Assessing the vulnerability of this system to climate change makes it possible to pinpoint the risks and the most vulnerable areas and people Vulnerability assessment is thus a necessary first step in identifying measures for adaptation and targeting them for specific contexts This publication has been developed to provide practical technical guidance for forest vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change, as requested by the Committee on Forestry (COFO), FAO’s global statutory body for forestry, at its twenty-third session in July 2016 It describes the elements that should be considered in assessing the vulnerability of forest ecosystems and forest-dependent people for different time horizons, and outlines a structured approach for conducting these assessments The aim is to guide practitioners in conducting a step-by-step analysis and to facilitate the choice and use of appropriate tools and methods, also taking gender dimensions into account The framework builds on the wide range of methods described in A review of existing approaches and methods to assess climate change vulnerability of forests and forest-dependent people (FAO Forestry Working Paper No 5), published in 2018 Furthermore, it capitalizes on the existing body of knowledge related to forest management and climate change adaptation, and in particular on the experience of FAO and the CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry (FTA) The framework has been developed through a multi-stakeholder process involving technical experts and key stakeholders from civil society organizations, non-governmental organizations, the private sector and international organizations By including summarized background information for readers with differing amounts of experience in forestry, climate change and assessment practices, the publication is designed to provide useful support to any practitioner conducting a vulnerability assessment with a forest- and tree-related component Hiroto Mitsugi Robert Nasi Assistant Director-General Director General FAO Forestry Department CIFOR viii Acknowledgements The contributions of the following researchers from the CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry (FTA) are acknowledged: Houria Djoudi, Christopher Martius, Daniel Murdiyarso, Pablo Pacheco, Bimbika Sijaparti Basnett, Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR); Yves Laumonier and Bruno Locatelli, French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD)/CIFOR; Lasisa A Duguma, Aster Gebrekirstos,Ramni Jamnadass, Roeland Kindt, Beria Leimona, Peter Minang, Catherine Muthuri, Fergus Sinclair and Meine van Noordwijk, World Agroforestry (ICRAF); Marlene Elias and Chris Kettle, Bioversity International; Eduardo Somarriba, Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE); Thanglong Trinh, International Network for Bamboo and Rattan (INBAR); and Herman Savenije (Tropenbos International) The following FAO specialists also provided valuable contributions: Nora Berrahmouni, Kristin Devalue, Nicolas Picard, Marieke Sandker, Shiroma Sathyapala and Mette Wilkie, Forestry Policy and Resources Division; Rima Al-Azar, Climate and Environment Division; Neil Marsland, Ulrich Nyamsi and Sylvie Wabbes Candotti, Emergency and Rehabilitation Division; Ilaria Sisto, Social Policies and Rural Institutions Division; Daniela Kalikoski, Rural Poverty Reduction Programme Management Team; and Steve Colombo, consultant The contributions of the following peer reviewers are 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forest management – Version 2.0, 2018 (E) Guide to the classical biological control of insect pests in planted and natural forests (E) Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people – a framework methodology (E) Ar – Arabic C – Chinese E – English I – Italian F – French K – Korean P – Portuguese S – Spanish R – Russian M – Multilingual * – Out of print FAO Forestry Papers are available through the authorized FAO Sales agents or directly from Sales and Marketing Group, FAO, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy, or at www.fao.org/forestry/58718/en/ 0.50 cm spine for 100pg on 90g paper 183 183 FAO FORESTRY PAPER Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people – a framework methodology Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people A framework methodology Negative impacts of climate change on forests threaten the delivery of crucial wood and non-wood goods and environmental services on which an estimated 1.6 billion people fully or partly depend Assessment of the vulnerability of forests and forest-dependent people to climate change is a necessary first step for identifying the risks and the most vulnerable areas and people, and for developing measures for adaptation and targeting them for specific contexts This publication provides practical technical guidance for forest vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change It describes the elements that should be considered for different time horizons and outlines a structured approach for conducting these assessments The framework will guide practitioners in conducting a step-by-step analysis and will facilitate the choice and use of appropriate tools and methods Background information is provided separately in text boxes, to assist readers with differing amounts of experience in forestry, climate change and assessment practices The publication will provide useful support to any vulnerability assessment with a forest- and tree-related component 789251 ISSN 0258-6150 319819 CA7064EN/1/11.19 FAO A framework methodology FAO FORESTRY PAPER 183 ISSN 0258-6150 ISBN 978-92-5-131981-9 Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people ... vulnerability of a forest to many of the impacts of climate change and are often perceived as greater and more immediate threats to tropical forests than climate change (Guariguata, Locatelli and Haupt,... related to forest management and climate change adaptation, and in particular on the experience of FAO and the CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry (FTA) The framework has... context Climate change mitigation, compensation, technical adaptation Social adaptation Relationship between vulnerability and adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity determines vulnerability Vulnerability