The vulnerability of a system is a function of its exposure to change, its sensitivity to such change, and its capacity to adapt to it. Vulnerability is a complex concept having many interacting dimensions (environmental, economic, social, political and geographic). A vulnerability assessment should answer the question “what (or who) is vulnerable to what”. In theory, assessment of vulnerability to climate change should take into account both the evolution of the system and the pressures and risks with which it will be confronted.
0.50 cm spine for 100pg on 90g paper 183 183 FAO FORESTRY PAPER Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people – a framework methodology Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people A framework methodology Negative impacts of climate change on forests threaten the delivery of crucial wood and non-wood goods and environmental services on which an estimated 1.6 billion people fully or partly depend Assessment of the vulnerability of forests and forest-dependent people to climate change is a necessary first step for identifying the risks and the most vulnerable areas and people, and for developing measures for adaptation and targeting them for specific contexts This publication provides practical technical guidance for forest vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change It describes the elements that should be considered for different time horizons and outlines a structured approach for conducting these assessments The framework will guide practitioners in conducting a step-by-step analysis and will facilitate the choice and use of appropriate tools and methods Background information is provided separately in text boxes, to assist readers with differing amounts of experience in forestry, climate change and assessment practices The publication will provide useful support to any vulnerability assessment with a forest- and tree-related component 789251 ISSN 0258-6150 319819 CA7064EN/1/11.19 FAO A framework methodology FAO FORESTRY PAPER 183 ISSN 0258-6150 ISBN 978-92-5-131981-9 Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and 183 forest-dependent people FAO FORESTRY PAPER A framework methodology by A Meybeck S Rose V Gitz FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Rome, 2019 Required citation: FAO and CIFOR 2019 FAO Framework Methodology for Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments of Forests and Forest Dependent People Rome The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) or the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO or CIFOR in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO or CIFOR ISSN 0258-6150 [Print] ISSN 2706-8773 [Online] ISBN 978-92-5-131981-9 © FAO, 2019 Some rights reserved This work is made available under the Creative Commons AttributionNonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 IGO licence (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO; https://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by-nc-sa/3.0/igo/legalcode) Under the terms of this licence, this work may be copied, redistributed and adapted for non-commercial purposes, provided that the work is appropriately cited In any use of this work, there should be no suggestion that FAO endorses any specific organization, products or services The use of the FAO logo is not permitted If the work is adapted, then it must be licensed under the same or equivalent Creative Commons license If a translation of this work is created, it must include the following disclaimer along with the required citation: “This translation was not created by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) FAO is not responsible for the content or accuracy of this translation The original English edition shall be the authoritative edition.” Disputes arising under the licence that cannot be settled amicably will be resolved by mediation and arbitration as described in Article of the licence except as otherwise provided herein The applicable mediation rules will be the mediation rules of the World Intellectual Property Organization http://www wipo.int/amc/en/mediation/rules and any arbitration will be in accordance with the Arbitration Rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) Third-party materials Users wishing to reuse material from this work that is attributed to a third party, such as tables, figures or images, are responsible for determining whether permission is needed for that reuse and for obtaining permission from the copyright holder The risk of claims resulting from infringement of any third-party-owned component in the work rests solely with the user Sales, rights and licensing FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/ publications) and can be purchased through publications-sales@fao.org Requests for commercial use should be submitted via: www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request Queries regarding rights and licensing should be submitted to: copyright@fao.org Cover photo: Villagers dependent on the forest for fuelwood, Maluku Province, Indonesia ©Ulet Ifansasti/CIFOR iii Contents Foreword vii Acknowledgements viii Acronyms ix Executive summary x Introduction Vulnerability, risk and resilience What is a vulnerability assessment? Moving from vulnerability assessment to adaptive measures Using the framework methodology Defining the objectives, scope and means 11 Identifying the project team 11 Defining clear objectives .11 Scoping 11 Means and resources 12 Defining the approach 13 Engaging with stakeholders 16 Describing the situation and state of the forests and trees 19 Biophysical situation 20 Biological composition of the forest 20 Current state of the forest 21 Forest functions and services 21 Trends and potential vulnerabilities unrelated to climate change 24 Legal status, institutions and governance .27 Legal status and institutions governing the forest 27 Governance and management 27 Risk management 28 Tenure and access rights 29 Prospective institutional and governance trends and plans 30 iv Describing the forest-dependent people 33 Number and characteristics of forest-dependent people 34 Socio-economic contribution of the forest 35 Characterizing the dependence 36 Vulnerabilities of forest-dependent people 36 Gender specificities 37 Climate change and climate-related risks in the region where the forest is located 39 Analysis of historical and current climate-related events and risks 39 Climate change projections 39 Potential impacts of climate change on forests and trees, and their specific vulnerabilities 43 Direct and indirect impacts 44 Combination with other vulnerabilities 47 Main forest vulnerability points 48 Potential impacts of climate change on forest-dependent people, and their specific vulnerabilities 51 Biophysical impacts 55 Economic impacts 55 Combination with other vulnerabilities (including those of institutional origin) 55 Analysis of the main points of vulnerability of forest-dependent people 56 Communicating the results and moving ahead 63 Document the process and share the findings 63 Plan subsequent steps to identify and promote adaptation options 63 10 Good practices and principles for vulnerability assessments 67 References 71 v Tables Key features of the outcome and contextual perspectives 14 Examples of information that can be used for evaluating exposure, sensitivity, impacts and adaptive capacity in a forest vulnerability assessment 48 Figures Components of vulnerability to climate change Vulnerability and resilience The relationship of adaptation measures to factors that affect the vulnerability and resilience of ecosociological systems Framework for integrating adaptations identified in vulnerability assessment into forest management planning and monitoring programmes Forest and land-use transition curve 19 Concept pyramid of forest ecosystem services 23 Cascading impacts of climate change on food security and nutrition 52 Risk matrix for rating disturbances in terms of their likelihood of occurrence and the seriousness of the consequences 54 Computation of the vulnerability from factors that influence forest cover using multifactorial spatial analysis 58 10 Validity quadrant for ranking potential actions for addressing vulnerability to disturbances 64 Boxes Addressing data challenges: the use of proxies 13 Some well-known approaches to vulnerability assessment 15 Classification of forest functions and services 22 Balancing trade-offs among forest users: an example from Sweden 29 Diverse forms of forest dependence 33 Climate change effects on wildfire risk 43 Climate change effects on pest risks 44 Methods and tools for assessing the vulnerability of forests and forest ecosystem services 45 Resources on species mapping 49 10 Role of forests in reducing human vulnerability 53 11 Participatory methods and tools for assessing impacts of climate change on the vulnerabilities of forest-dependent people 53 12 Vulnerability assessment of Mediterranean forests 56 vi 13 CRiSTAL Forests: a tool for screening community-based risk 59 14 Good practice and lessons learned in assessing climate change impacts and vulnerability 67 15 Principles for effective vulnerability assessments 69 vii Foreword Negative impacts of climate change on forests, which are already apparent in many places, threaten the delivery of crucial wood and non-wood goods and environmental services on which an estimated 1.6 billion people fully or partly depend While some of the problems associated with climate change are emerging gradually, immediate action is needed to build resilience into forests and people’s livelihoods Forests and people constitute an integrated socio-ecological system Assessing the vulnerability of this system to climate change makes it possible to pinpoint the risks and the most vulnerable areas and people Vulnerability assessment is thus a necessary first step in identifying measures for adaptation and targeting them for specific contexts This publication has been developed to provide practical technical guidance for forest vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change, as requested by the Committee on Forestry (COFO), FAO’s global statutory body for forestry, at its twenty-third session in July 2016 It describes the elements that should be considered in assessing the vulnerability of forest ecosystems and forest-dependent people for different time horizons, and outlines a structured approach for conducting these assessments The aim is to guide practitioners in conducting a step-by-step analysis and to facilitate the choice and use of appropriate tools and methods, also taking gender dimensions into account The framework builds on the wide range of methods described in A review of existing approaches and methods to assess climate change vulnerability of forests and forest-dependent people (FAO Forestry Working Paper No 5), published in 2018 Furthermore, it capitalizes on the existing body of knowledge related to forest management and climate change adaptation, and in particular on the experience of FAO and the CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry (FTA) The framework has been developed through a multi-stakeholder process involving technical experts and key stakeholders from civil society organizations, non-governmental organizations, the private sector and international organizations By including summarized background information for readers with differing amounts of experience in forestry, climate change and assessment practices, the publication is designed to provide useful support to any practitioner conducting a vulnerability assessment with a forest- and tree-related component Hiroto Mitsugi Robert Nasi Assistant Director-General Director General FAO Forestry Department CIFOR viii Acknowledgements The contributions of the following researchers from the CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry (FTA) are acknowledged: Houria Djoudi, Christopher Martius, Daniel Murdiyarso, Pablo Pacheco, Bimbika Sijaparti Basnett, Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR); Yves Laumonier and Bruno Locatelli, French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD)/CIFOR; Lasisa A Duguma, Aster Gebrekirstos,Ramni Jamnadass, Roeland Kindt, Beria Leimona, Peter Minang, Catherine Muthuri, Fergus Sinclair and Meine van Noordwijk, World Agroforestry (ICRAF); Marlene Elias and Chris Kettle, Bioversity International; Eduardo Somarriba, Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE); Thanglong Trinh, International Network for Bamboo and Rattan (INBAR); and Herman Savenije (Tropenbos International) The following FAO specialists also provided valuable contributions: Nora Berrahmouni, Kristin Devalue, Nicolas Picard, Marieke Sandker, Shiroma Sathyapala and Mette Wilkie, Forestry Policy and Resources Division; Rima Al-Azar, Climate and Environment Division; Neil Marsland, Ulrich Nyamsi and Sylvie Wabbes Candotti, Emergency and Rehabilitation Division; Ilaria Sisto, Social Policies and Rural Institutions Division; Daniela Kalikoski, Rural Poverty Reduction Programme Management Team; and Steve Colombo, consultant The contributions of the following peer reviewers are much appreciated: Susan Braatz, FAO retiree; Rodney Keenan, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia; Ferenc Lakatos, Forest Invasive Species Network for Europe and Central Asia; David Rhodes, New Zealand Forest Owners Association; Keiko Saito, World Bank; Jagmohan Sharma, Centre for Sustainable Technologies, Indian Institute of Science; and Chris Swanston, Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, United States of America ix Acronyms CIFOR Center for International Forestry Research FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FTA CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry ICRAF World Agroforestry IISD International Institute for Sustainable Development IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature IUFRO International Union of Forest Research Organizations NGO non-governmental organization REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, plus conservation of forest carbon stocks, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 72 Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people Brockhaus, M., Djoudi, H & Locatelli, B 2013 Envisioning the future and learning from the past: adapting to a changing environment in northern Mali Environmental Science & Policy, 25: 94–106 Brody, A., Demetriades, J & Esplen, E 2008 Gender and climate change: mapping the linkages – a scoping study on knowledge and gaps Brighton, UK, Institute of Development Studies Brugère, C & De Young, C 2015 Assessing climate change vulnerability in fisheries and aquaculture: available methodologies and their relevance for the sector FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper No 597 Rome, FAO Buckle, P., Marsh, G & Smale, S 2001 Assessing resilience and vulnerability: principles, strategies and actions Canberra, Emergency Management Australia Burton, P.J., Bergeron, Y., Bogdansky, B.E.C., Juday, G.P., Kuuluvainen, T., McAfee, B.J., Ogden, A., Teplyakov, V.K., Alfaro, R.I., Francis, D.A., Gauthier, S & Hantula, J 2010 Sustainability of boreal forests and forestry in a changing environment In G Mery, P Katila, G Galloway, R Alfaro, M Kanninen, M Lobovikov & J Varjo, eds Forests and society – responding to global drivers of change, pp 249–282 IUFRO World Series Vol 25 Vienna, International Union of Forest Research Organizations Butler, J.R.A., Suadnya, W., Yanuartati, Y., Meharg, S., Wise, R.M., Sutaryono, Y & Duggan, K 2016 Priming adaptation pathways through adaptive co-management: design and evaluation for developing countries Climate Risk Management, 12: 1–16 CIFOR, ICRAF, CGIAR, Bioversity & CIAT (International Center for Tropical Agriculture) 2011 CGIAR Research Program proposal – Forests, Trees and Agroforestry: Livelihoods, Landscapes and Governance Bogor, Indonesia, CIFOR Clark, J.S., Gelfand, A.E., Woodall, C.W & Zhu, K 2014 More than the sum of the parts: forest climate response from joint species distribution models Ecological Applications, 24(5): 990–999 Coops, N.C., Hember, R.A., Waring, R.H 2010 Assessing the impact of current and projected climates on Douglas-fir productivity in British Columbia, Canada, using a process-based model (3-PG) Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 40(3): 511–524 CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) 2015 Climate change in Australia – Projections for Australia's NRM regions [online] [Cited March 2019] www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-projections d’Annunzio, R., Gianvenuti, A., Henry, M & Thulstrup, A 2016 Manual for assessing woodfuel supply and demand in displacement settings Rome, FAO & Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Dasgupta, S., Hossain, M., Huq, M & Wheeler, D 2014 Climate change, soil salinity, and the economics of high-yield rice production in coastal Bangladesh World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No 7140 Washington, DC, World Bank Daust, D., Morgan, D., Holt, R., Utzig, G., Zielke, K., Nelson, H & Change, P.C 2011 Comparison of regional vulnerability assessments In D Morgan & D Daust, eds A climate change vulnerability assessment for British Columbia’s managed forests Government of British Columbia, Canada References 73 Dazé, A., Ambrose, K & Ehrhart, C 2009 Climate vulnerability and capacity analysis handbook Care International de Sousa, K., van Zonneveld, M., Imbach, P., Casanoves, F., Kindt, R & Ordonez, J.C 2017 Suitability of key Central American agroforestry species under future climates: an atlas ICRAF Occasional Paper No 26 Turrialba, Costa Rica, ICRAF Devisscher, T., Bharwani, S., Tiani, A.M., Pavageau, C., Kwack, N.E & Taylor, R 2013 Current vulnerability in the Tri-National de la Sangha landscape, Cameroon Working Paper No 107 Bogor, Indonesia, CIFOR DFID (Department for International Development, UK) 1999 Sustainable Livelihoods Guidance Sheets London Available at: www.livelihoodscentre.org/intro Djoudi, H & Brockhaus, M 2011 Is adaptation to climate change gender neutral? Lessons from communities dependent on livestock and forests in northern Mali International Forestry Review, 13(2): 123–135 Djoudi, H., Brockhaus, M & Locatelli, B 2013 Once there was a lake: vulnerability to environmental changes in northern Mali Regional Environmental Change, 13(3): 493–508 Duveneck, M.J., Scheller, R.M., White, M.A., Handler, S.D & Ravenscroft, C 2014 Climate change effects on northern Great Lake (USA) forests: a case for preserving diversity Ecosphere, 5(2): 1–26 Ellison, J.C 2012 Climate change vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning for mangrove systems Washington, DC, World Wildlife Fund (WWF) FAO 2006 Fire management: voluntary guidelines – principles and strategic actions Fire Management Working Paper No 17 Rome FAO 2009 Global review of forest pests and diseases FAO Forestry Paper No 156 Rome FAO 2013 Climate change guidelines for forest managers Rome FAO 2016 Climate change and food security: risks and responses Rome FAO 2017 Climate-smart forestry In Climate Smart Agriculture Sourcebook, digital edition [online] [Cited 12 July 2019] www.fao.org/climate-smart-agriculture-sourcebook/ production-resources/module-b3-forestry/chapter-b3-1 FAO 2018a A review of existing approaches and methods to assess climate change vulnerability of forests and forest-dependent people Forestry Working Paper No Rome FAO 2018b Guidance note on gender-sensitive vulnerability assessments in agriculture Rome FAO, CIFOR, IFRI (International Forestry Resources and Institutions Research Network) & World Bank 2016 National socioeconomic surveys in forestry: guidance and survey modules for measuring the multiple roles of forests in household welfare and livelihoods, by R.K Bakkegaard, A Agrawal, I Animon, N Hogarth, D Miller, L Persha, E Rametsteiner, S Wunder & A Zezza FAO Forestry Paper No 179 Rome FAO & Plan Bleu 2013 State of Mediterranean Forests 2013 Rome Farquhar, G.D., Von Cammerer, S & Berry, J.A 1980 A biochemical model of photosynthetic CO2 assimilation in leaves of C3 species Planta, 149: 78–90 Fisher, R.J., Srimongkontip, S & Veer, C 1997 People and forests in Asia and the Pacific: situation and prospects FAO/RAPA Working Paper APFSOS/WP/27 Bangkok, FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific 74 Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people Foden, W.B & Young, B.E 2016 IUCN SSC Guidelines for Assessing Species’ Vulnerability to Climate Change, Version 1.0 Occasional Paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission No 59 Cambridge, UK & Gland, Switzerland, International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Species Survival Commission Franzel, S., Carsan, S., Lukuyu, B., Sinja, J & Wambugu, C 2014 Fodder trees for improving livestock productivity and smallholder livelihoods in Africa Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 6: 98–103 Füssel, H.M & Klein, R.J 2006 Climate change vulnerability assessments: an evolution of conceptual thinking Climatic Change, 75(3): 301–329 Gaisberger, H., Kindt, R., Loo, J., Schmidt, M., Bognounou, F., Da, S.S., Diallo, O.B., Ganaba, S., Gnoumou, A., Lompo, D., Lykke, A.M., Mbayngone, E., Nacoulma, B.M.I., Ouedraogo, M., Ouédraogo, O Parkouda, C., Porembski, S., Savadogo, P., Thiombiano, A., Zerbo, G & Vinceti, B 2017 Spatially explicit multi-threat assessment of food tree species in Burkina Faso: a fine-scale approach PLOS ONE, 12(9): e0184457 Gallopín, G.C 2006 Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity Global Environmental Change, 16(3): 293–303 Garibaldi, L.A., Carvalheiro, L.G., Vaissière, B.E., Gemmill-Herren, B., Hipólito, J., Freitas, B.M., Ngo, H.T., Azzu, N., Sáez, A., Åström, J., An, J., Blochtein, B., Buchori, D., Chamorro García, F.J., da Silva, F.O., Devkota, K., de Fátima Ribeiro, M., Freitas, L., Gaglianone, M.C., Goss, M., Irshad, M., Kasina, M., Pacheco Filho, A.J.S., Piedade Kiill, L.H., Kwapong, P., Nates Parra, G., Pires, C., Pires, V., Rawal, R.S., Rizali, A., Saraiva, A.M., Veldtman, R., Viana, B.F., Witter, S & Zhang, H 2016 Mutually beneficial pollinator diversity and crop yield outcomes in small and large farms Science, 351(6271): 388–391 Gebrekirstos, A., Bräuning, A., Sass-Klassen, U & Mbow, C 2014 Opportunities and applications of dendrochronology in Africa Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 6: 48–53 Ghini, R., Hamada, E., Pedro, M.J Jr., Marengo, J.A & Valle Gonỗalves, R.R 2008 Risk analysis of climate change on coffee nematodes and leaf miner in Brazil Pesquisa Agropecuária Brasileira, 43: 187–194 Gitz, V & Meybeck, A 2012 Risks, vulnerabilities and resilience in a context of climate change In A Meybeck, J Lankoski, S Redfern, N Azzu & V Gitz, eds Building resilience for adaptation to climate change in the agriculture sector, pp 19–36 Proceedings of a Joint FAO/OECD Workshop, 23–24 April 2012 Rome, FAO GIZ (German Agency for International Cooperation) 2013 Guide méthodologique: approche spatiale multifactorielle d’analyse de la vulnérabilité des écosystèmes face au changement climatique – cas de la subéraie en Tunisie Tunis GIZ 2014 The vulnerability sourcebook: concept and guidelines for standardised vulnerability assessments, by K Fritzsche, S Schneiderbauer, P, Bubeck, S Kienberger, M Buth, M Zebisch & W Kahlenborn Bonn & Eschborn, Germany Guariguata, M.R., Locatelli, B & Haupt, F 2012 Adapting tropical production forests to global climate change: risk perceptions and actions International Forestry Review, 14(1): 27–38 References 75 Hanna, P & Kulakowski, D 2012 The influences of climate on aspen dieback Forest Ecology and Management, 274: 91–98 Hiltner, U., Bräuning, A., Gebrekirstos, A., Huth, A & Fischer, R 2016 Impacts of precipitation variability on the dynamics of a dry tropical montane forest Ecological modelling, 320: 92–101 HLPE (High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition of the Committee on World Food Security) 2013 Investing in smallholder agriculture for food security Rome HLPE 2017 Sustainable forestry for food security and nutrition Rome Holling, C.S 1973 Resilience and stability of ecological systems Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 4(1): 1–23 IISD (International Institute for Sustainable Development) 2019 CRiSTAL Communitybased Risk Screening Tool – Adaptation and Livelihoods [online] [Cited April 2019] www.iisd.org/cristaltool IISD, CIFOR, IUCN, SEI (Stockholm Environment Institute) & Helvetas 2013 CRiSTAL Forests user’s manual: Community-based Risk Screening Tool – Adaptation and Livelihoods Focus on Forests and Ecosystems Winnipeg, Canada, IISD Infield, M & Mugisha, A 2010 Integrating cultural, spiritual and ethical dimensions into conservation practice in a rapidly changing world MacArthur Foundation Conservation White Paper Series Chicago, USA, MacArthur Foundation IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2014a Climate change 2014: synthesis report Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed R.K Pachauri & L.A Meyer Geneva, Switzerland IPCC 2014b Annex II: Glossary In V.R Barros, C.B Field, D.J Dokken, M.D Mastrandrea, K.J Mach, T.E Bilir, M Chatterjee, K.L Ebi, Y.O Estrada, R.C Genova, B Girma, E.S Kissel, A.N Levy, S MacCracken, P.R Mastrandrea & L.L White, eds Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, Part B, Regional aspects, pp 1757–1776 Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge, UK & New York, USA, Cambridge University Press Joyce, D.G & Rehfeldt, G.E 2013 Climatic niche, ecological genetics, and impact of climate change on eastern white pine (Pinus strobus L.): guidelines for land managers Forest Ecology and Management, 295: 173–192 Kirtman, B., Power, S.B., Adedoyin, J.A., Boer, G.J., Bojariu, R., Camilloni, I., Doblas-Reyes, F.J., Fiore, A.M., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G.A., Prather, M., Sarr, A., Schär, C., Sutton, R., van Oldenborgh, G.J., Vecchi, G & Wang, H.J 2013 Near-term climate change: projections and predictability In T.F Stocker, D Qin, G.-K Plattner, M Tignor, S.K Allen, J Boschung, A Nauels, Y Xia, V Bex & P.M Midgley, eds Climate change 2013: the physical science basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge, UK, & New York, USA, Cambridge University Press Koca, D., Smith, B & Sykes, M.T 2006 Modelling regional climate change effects on potential natural ecosystems in Sweden Climatic Change, 78(2–4): 381–406 76 Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people Lambrou, Y & Piana, G 2006 Gender: the missing component of the response to climate change Rome, FAO Locatelli, B., Herawati, H., Brockhaus, M., Idinoba, M & Kanninen, M 2008 Methods and tools for assessing the vulnerability of forests and people to climate change: an introduction CIFOR Working Paper No 43 Bogor, Indonesia, CIFOR Lucier, A., Ayres, M., Karnosky, D., Thompson, I., Loehle, C., Percy, K & Sohngen, B 2009 Forest responses and vulnerabilities to recent climate change In R Seppala, A Buck & P Katila, eds Adaptation of forests and people to climate change – a global assessment report, pp 29–52 IUFRO World Series No 22 Helsinki, IUFRO Luedeling, E., Muthuri, C & Kindt, R 2013 Ecosystem vulnerability to climate change: a literature review Working Paper No 162 Nairobi, ICRAF Luedeling, E., Steinmann, K.P., Zhang, M., Brown, P.H., Grant, J & Girvetz, E.H 2011 Climate change effects on walnut pests in California Global Change Biology, 17: 228–238 MA (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment) 2005 Ecosystems and human well-being: current state and trends, ed R Hassan, R Scholes & N Ash Washington, DC, Island Press Man, R., Kayahara, G.J., Dang, Q.L & Rice, J.A 2009 A case of severe frost damage prior to budbreak in young conifers in Northeastern Ontario: consequence of climate change? The Forestry Chronicle, 85(3): 453-462 Mather, A.S & Needle, C.L 1998 The forest transition: a theoretical basis Area, 30(2): 117–124 Mazzocchi, F 2006 Western science and traditional knowledge EMBO Reports, 7(5): 463–466 Met Office undated PRECIS: a regional climate modelling system [online] [Cited March 2019] www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/applied/international-development/precis Miller, F., Osbahr, H., Boyd, E., Thomalla, F., Bharwani, S., Ziervogel, G., Walker, B., Birkmann, J., Van der Leeuw, S., Rockström, J., Hinkel, J., Downing, T., Folke, C & Nelson, D 2010 Resilience and vulnerability: complementary or conflicting concepts? Ecology and Society, 15(3): 11–36 Mimura, N., Pulwarty, R.S., Duc, D.M., Elshinnawy, I., Redsteer, M.H., Huang, H.Q., Nkem, J.N & Sanchez Rodriguez, R.A 2014 Adaptation planning and implementation In C.B Field, V.R Barros, D.J Dokken, K.J Mach, M.D Mastrandrea, T.E Bilir, M Chatterjee, K.L Ebi, Y.O Estrada, R.C Genova, B Girma, E.S Kissel, A.N Levy, S MacCracken, P.R Mastrandrea & L.L.White, eds Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, Part A, Global and sectoral aspects, pp 869–898 Cambridge, UK & New York, USA, Cambridge University Press Narain, U., Gupta, S & van ‘t Veld, K 2008 Poverty and the environment: exploring the relationship between household incomes, private assets and natural assets Land Economics, 84(1): 148–167 Nelson, D.R., Adger, W.N & Brown, K 2007 Adaptation to environmental change: contributions of a resilience framework Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 32: 395–419 Obeng, E.A., Owusu-Sekyere, E., Dumenu, W.K., Nutakor, E.E., Samar, S.B & Opoku, E.A 2011 Climate change and forest dependent livelihoods: vulnerabilities and impacts Technical report, Government of Ghana Project References 77 O’Brien, K., Leichenko, R., Kelkar, U., Venema, H., Aandahl, G., Tompkins, H., Javed, A., Bhadwal, S., Barg, S., Nygaard, L & West, J 2004 Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India Global Environmental Change, 14(4): 303–313 O’Brien, K., Eriksen, S., Nygaard, L P & Schjolden, A 2007 Why different interpretations of vulnerability matter in climate change discourses Climate Policy, 7(1): 73–88 Ogden, A.E & Innes, J 2007 Incorporating climate change adaptation considerations into forest management planning in the boreal forest International Forestry Review, 9(3): 713–733 Ostrom, E 2011 Background on the institutional analysis and development framework Policy Studies Journal, 39(1): 7–27 Park, S.E., Marshall, N.A., Jakku, E., Dowd, A.M., Howden, S.M., Mendham, E & Fleming, A 2012 Informing adaptation responses to climate change through theories of transformation Global Environmental Change, 22(1): 115–126 Parkins, J.R & MacKendrick, N.A 2007 Assessing community vulnerability: a study of the mountain pine beetle outbreak in British Columbia, Canada Global Environmental Change, 17(3): 460–471 Parmesan, C & Yohe, G 2003 A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems Nature, 421(6918): 37–42 Pavageau, C., Butterfield, R & Tiani, A.M 2013 Current vulnerability in the Virunga landscape, Rwanda COBAM (Climate Change and Forests in the Congo Basin: Synergies between Adaptation and Mitigation) brief Bogor, Indonesia, CIFOR Picard, N & Garavaglia, V 2017 Vulnerability of Mediterranean forests to climate change Rome, FAO Available at: www.fao.org/forestry/47152-0f593b40ebd5438a7f3e4d6eb0a 0c6385.pdf Pokharel, B.K., Branney, P., Nurse, M & Malla, Y.B 2008 Community forestry: conserving forests, sustaining livelihoods, strengthening democracy In H Ojha, N Timsina, C Kumar, B Belcher & M Banjade, eds Communities, forests, and governance: policy and institutional innovations from Nepal New Delhi, Adroit Porter, J.R., Xie, L., Challinor, A.J., Cochrane, K., Howden, S.M., Iqbal, M.M., Lobell, D.B & Travasso, M.I 2014 Food security and food production systems In C.B Field, V.R Barros, D.J Dokken, K.J Mach, M.D Mastrandrea, T.E Bilir, M Chatterjee, K.L Ebi, Y.O Estrada, R.C Genova, B Girma, E.S Kissel, A.N Levy, S MacCracken, P.R Mastrandrea & L.L White, eds Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, Part A, Global and sectoral aspects, pp 485–533 Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge, UK & New York, USA, Cambridge University Press Potter, K & Crane, B.S 2010 Forest Tree Genetic Risk Assessment System: a tool for conservation decision-making in changing times User Guide Version 1.2 Available at: www.forestthreats.org/current-projects/project-summaries/genetic-risk-assessmentsystem-description-120610.pdf Pramova, E., Locatelli, B., Djoudi, H & Somorin, O.A 2012 Forests and trees for social adaptation to climate variability and change Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 3(6): 581–596 78 Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people PROVIA (Programme of Research on Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation) 2013 PROVIA guidance on assessing vulnerability, impacts and adaptation to climate change – consultation document, by J Hinkel, S Bharwani, A Bisaro, T Carter, T Cull, M Davis, R Klein, K Lonsdale, L Rosentrater & K Vincent Nairobi, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Ranjitkar, S., Sujakhu, N.M., Lu, Y., Wang, Q., Wang, M., He, J., Mortimer, P.E., Xu, J., Kindt, R & Zomer, R.J 2016a Climate modelling for agroforestry species selection in Yunnan Province, China Environmental Modelling & Software, 75: 263–272 Ranjitkar, S., Sujakhu, N.M., Merz, J., Kindt, R., Xu, J., Matin, M.A., Ali, M & Zomer, R.J 2016b Suitability analysis and projected climate change impact on banana and coffee production zones in Nepal PLOS One, 11(9): e0163916 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal pone.0163916 Ribot, J.C 2009 Authority over forests: empowerment and subordination in Senegal’s democratic decentralization Development and Change, 40: 105–129 Robledo, C & Forner, C 2005 Adaptation of forest ecosystems and the forest sector to climate change FAO Forests and Climate Change Working Paper No Rome, FAO Rochester, W.A., Skewes, T.D., Suadnya, I.W., Butler, J.R.A., Lyne, V.D., Handayani, T., Habibi, P., Karnan & Cokrowati, N 2016 A typology of natural resource use for livelihood impact assessments in Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia Climate Risk Management, 12: 59–68 Rodenberg, B 2009 Climate change adaptation from a gender perspective: a crosscutting analysis of development-policy instruments Discussion Paper 24/2009 Bonn, Germany, German Development Institute (DIE) Rosenzweig, C., Casassa, G., Karoly, D.J., Imeson, A., Liu, C., Menzel, A., Rawlins, S., Root, T.L., Seguin, B & Tryjanowski, P 2007 Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems In M.L Parry, O.F Canziani, J.P Palutikof, P.J van der Linden & C.E Hanson, eds Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, pp 79–131 Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge, UK & New York, USA, Cambridge University Press Rowe, G & Frewer, L.J 2005 A typology of public engagement mechanisms Science, Technology & Human Values, 30(2): 251–290 Salbitano, F., Borelli, S., Conigliaro, M & Chen, Y 2016 Guidelines on urban and periurban forestry FAO Forestry Paper No 178 FAO, Rome Sandström, C & Widmark, C 2007 Stakeholders’ perceptions of consultations as tools for co-management – a case study of the forestry and reindeer herding sectors in northern Sweden Forest Policy and Economics, 10(1): 25–35 Schipper, L., Liu, W., Krawanchid, D & Chanthy, S 2010 Review of climate change adaptation methods and tools MRC Technical Paper No 34 Vientiane, Mekong River Commission (MRC) Scoones, I 1998 Sustainable rural livelihoods: a framework for analysis IDS Working Paper No 72 Sussex, UK, Institute of Development Studies (IDS) References 79 Seppälä, R., Buck, A & Katila, P., eds 2009 Adaptation of forests and people to climate change A global assessment report IUFRO World Series Vol 22 Helsinki, IUFRO Shackleton, C & Shackleton, S 2004 The importance of non-timber forest products in rural livelihood security and as safety nets: a review of evidence from South Africa South African Journal of Science, 100(11–12): 658–664 Shvidenko, A., Barber, C.V., Persson, R., Gonzalez, P & Hassan, R 2005 Forest and woodland systems In R Hassan, R Scholes & N Ash, eds Ecosystems and human well-being: current state and trends, pp 585–622 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Washington, DC, Island Press Smit, B & Wandel, J 2006 Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability Global Environmental Change, 16(3): 282–292 Somda, J., Sawadogo, I., Savadogo, M., Zougmoré, R., Bationo, B.A., Moussa, A.S., Nakoulma, G., Sanou, J., Barry, S., Sanou, A.O & Some, L 2014 Participatory vulnerability assessment and planning of adaptation to climate change in the Yatenga, Burkina Faso CCAFS Working Paper No 64 Frederiksberg, Denmark, CGIAR Challenge Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Spittlehouse, D.L & Stewart, R.B 2003 Adaptation to climate change in forest management BC Journal of Ecosystems and Management, 4(1) Sprintsin, M., Chen, J.M., Desai, A & Gough, C.M 2012 Evaluation of leaf-to-canopy upscaling methodologies against carbon flux data in North America Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 117(G1) Sunderland, T., Achdiawan, R., Angelsen, A., Babigumira, R., Ickowitz, A., Paumgarten, F., Reyes-Garcia, V & Shively, G 2014 Challenging perceptions about men, women, and forest product use: a global comparative study World Development, (64, Suppl 1): 56–66 Sunderlin, W.D., Angelsen, A & Wunder, S 2003 Forests and poverty alleviation In State of the World’s Forests 2003, pp 61–73 Rome, FAO Svobodová, E., Trnka, M., Dubrovský, M., Semerádová, D., Eitzinger, J., Stěpánek, P & Zalud, Z 2014 Determination of areas with the most significant shift in persistence of pests in Europe under climate change Pest Management Science, 70(5): 708–715 Sylvester, O., Segura, A.G & Davidson-Hunt, I.J 2016 The protection of forest biodiversity can conflict with food access for indigenous people Conservation and Society, 14(3): 279–290 Te Uru Rãkau/Forestry New Zealand 2019 Forestry pest and disease management [online] [Cited March 2019] www.mpi.govt.nz/growing-and-harvesting/forestry/taking-careof-your-forest/forestry-pest-and-disease-management Tiani, A.M., Besa, M.C., Devisscher, T., Pavageau, C., Butterfield, R., Bharwani, S & Bele, M.Y 2015 Assessing current social vulnerability to climate change: a participatory methodology Working Paper 169 Bogor, Indonesia, CIFOR Turnbull, M & Turvill, E 2012 Participatory capacity and vulnerability analysis: a practitioner's guide Oxford, UK, Oxfam International Turner, B.L., Kasperson, R.E., Meyer, W.B., Matson, P., McCarthy, J.J., Corell, R.W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J.X., Luers, A., Martello, M.L, Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A & Schiller, A 2003 A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability 80 Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people science Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 100: 8074–8079 UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization) 2011 The cultural diversity lens: a practical tool to integrate culture in development – pedagogical guide Paris UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) 2011 Assessing climate change impacts and vulnerability, making informed adaptation decisions – highlights of the contribution of the Nairobi Work Programme Bonn, Germany USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) Climate Hubs undated ForeCASTS: Forecasts of climate associated shifts in tree species [online] [Cited March 2019] www climatehubs.oce.usda.gov/hubs/southeast/tools/forecasts-forecasts-climate-associatedshifts-tree-species USDA Forest Service undated Climate wizard [online] [Cited March 2019.] www fs.usda.gov/ccrc/tools/climate-wizard van Breugel, P., Friis, I., Demissew, S., Lillesø, J.-P.B & Kindt, R 2016 Current and future fire regimes and their influence on natural vegetation in Ethiopia Ecosystems, 19(2): 369–386 Vira, B., Wildburger, C & Mansourian, S., eds 2015 Forests, trees and landscapes for food security and nutrition IUFRO World Series, 33 Vienna, IUFRO Wang, T., Wang, G., Innes, J., Nitschke, C & Kang, H 2016 Climatic niche models and their consensus projections for future climates for four major forest tree species in the Asia-Pacific region Forest Ecology and Management, 360: 357–366 WCRP (World Climate Research Programme) CORDEX 2019 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment [online] [Cited March 2019] www.cordex.org Whetton, P., Hennessy, K., Clarke, J., McInnes, K & Kent, D 2012 Use of Representative Climate Futures in impact and adaptation assessment Climatic Change, 115(3–4): 433–442 Widmark, C 2009 Management of multiple-use commons – focusing on land use for forestry and reindeer husbandry in northern Sweden Doctoral thesis, Umeå, Sweden, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences Williams, S.E., Shoo, L.P., Isaac, J.L., Hoffmann, A.A & Langham, G 2008 Towards an integrated framework for assessing the vulnerability of species to climate change PLoS Biology, 6(12): e325 WorldClim 2016 WorldClim – Global Climate Data [online] [Cited March 2019] www worldclim.org Young, B., Byers, E., Gravuer, K., Hall, K., Hammerson, G & Redder, A 2011 Guidelines for using the NatureServe climate change vulnerability index Arlington, Virginia, USA, NatureServe Yousefpour, R., Jacobsen, J.B., Thorsen, B.J., Meilby, H., Hanewinkel, M & Oehler, K 2012 A review of decision-making approaches to handle uncertainty and risk in adaptive forest management under climate change Annals of Forest Science, 69(1): 1–15 FAO Forestry Papers 3 Rev.1 Rev.2 4/1 4/2 10/1 10/2 11 12 13 14 14 Rev.1 15 16 17 17 sup.1 Forest utilization contracts on public Land, 1977 (E F S) Planning forest roads and harvesting systems, 1977 (E F S) World list of forestry schools, 1977 (E F S) World list of forestry schools, 1981 (E F S) World list of forestry schools, 1986 (E F S) World pulp and paper demand, supply and trade – Vol 1, 1977 (E F S) World pulp and paper demand, supply and trade – Vol 2, 1977 (E F S) The marketing of tropical wood in South America, 1976 (E S) National parks planning, 1976 (E F S) Forestry for local community development, 1978 (ar E F S) Establishment techniques for forest plantations, 1978 (Ar C E * F S) Wood chips – production, handling, transport, 1976 (C E S) Assessment of logging costs from forest inventories in the tropics – Principles and methodology, 1978 (E F S) Assessment of logging costs from forest inventories in the tropics – Data collection and calculations, 1978 (E F S) Savanna afforestation in Africa, 1977 (E F) China: forestry support for agriculture, 1978 (E) Forest products prices 1960–1977, 1979 (E F S) Mountain forest roads and harvesting, 1979 (E) Logging and transport in steep terrain, 1985 (e) AGRIS forestry – world catalogue of information and documentation services, 1979 (E F S) China: integrated wood processing industries, 1979 (E F S) Economic analysis of forestry projects, 1979 (E F S) Economic analysis of forestry projects: case studies, 1979 (E S) 17 Sup.2 Economic analysis of forestry projects: readings, 1980 (C E) 18 Forest products prices 1960–1978, 1980 (E F S) 19/1 Pulping and paper-making properties of fast-growing plantation wood species – Vol 1, 1980 (E) 19/2 Pulping and paper-making properties of fast-growing plantation wood species – Vol 2, 1980 (E) 20 Forest tree improvement, 1985 (C E F S) 20/2 A guide to forest seed handling, 1985 (E S) 21 Impact on soils of fast-growing species in lowland humid tropics, 1980 (E F S) 22/1 Forest volume estimation and yield prediction – Vol Volume estimation, 1980 (C E F S) 22/2 Forest volume estimation and yield prediction – Vol Yield prediction, 1980 (C E F S) 23 Forest products prices 1961–1980, 1981 (E F S) 24 Cable logging systems, 1981 (C E) 25 Public forestry administrations in Latin America, 1981 (e) 26 Forestry and rural development, 1981 (E F S) 27 Manual of forest inventory, 1981 (E F) 28 Small and medium sawmills in developing countries, 1981 (E S) 29 World forest products, demand and supply 1990 and 2000, 1982 (E F S) 30 Tropical forest resources, 1982 (E F S) 31 Appropriate technology in forestry, 1982 (E) 32 Classification and definitions of forest products, 1982 (Ar E F S) 33 Logging of mountain forests, 1982 (E F S) 34 Fruit-bearing forest trees, 1982 (E F S) 35 Forestry in China, 1982 (C E) 36 Basic technology in forest operations, 1982 (E F S) 37 Conservation and development of Tropical forest resources, 1982 (E F S) 38 Forest products prices 1962–1981, 1982 (E/F/S) 39 40 41 42 43 44/1 44/2 44/3 45 46 47 48 49 50 50/1 51/1 52/1 52/2 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 Frame saw manual, 1982 (E) Circular saw manual, 1983 (E) Simple technologies for charcoal making, 1983 (E F S) Fuelwood supplies in the developing countries, 1983 (Ar E F S) Forest revenue systems in developing countries, 1983 (E F S) Food and fruit-bearing forest species – Examples from eastern Africa, 1983 (E F S) Food and fruit-bearing forest species – Examples from southeastern Asia, 1984 (E F S) Food and fruit-bearing forest species – Examples from Latin America, 1986 (E S) Establishing pulp and paper mills, 1983 (E) Forest products prices 1963–1982, 1983 (E/F/S) Technical forestry education – design and implementation, 1984 (E F S) Land evaluation for forestry, 1984 (C E F S) Wood extraction with oxen and agricultural tractors, 1986 (E F S) Changes in shifting cultivation in Africa, 1984 (E F) Changes in shifting cultivation in Africa – seven case-studies, 1985 (E) Studies on the volume and yield of tropical forest stands – Dry forest formations, 1989 (E F) Cost estimating in sawmilling industries: guidelines, 1984 (E) Field manual on cost estimation in sawmilling industries, 1985 (E) Intensive multiple-use forest management in Kerala, 1984 (E F S) Planificación del desarrollo forestal, 1984 (S) Intensive multiple-use forest management in the tropics, 1985 (E F S) Breeding poplars for disease resistance, 1985 (E) Coconut wood – Processing and use, 1985 (E S) Sawdoctoring manual, 1985 (E S) The ecological effects of eucalyptus, 1985 (C E F S) 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 Monitoring and evaluation of participatory forestry projects, 1985 (E F S) Forest products prices 1965-1984, 1985 (E F S) World list of institutions engaged in forestry and forest products research, 1985 (E F S) Industrial charcoal making, 1985 (E) Tree growing by rural people, 1985 (Ar E F S) Forest legislation in selected African countries, 1986 (E F) Forestry extension organization, 1986 (C E S) Some medicinal forest plants of Africa and Latin America, 1986 (E) Appropriate forest industries, 1986 (E) Management of forest industries, 1986 (E) Wildland fire management terminology, 1986 (E F S) World compendium of forestry and forest products research institutions, 1986 (E F S) Wood gas as engine fuel, 1986 (E S) Forest products: world outlook projections 1985–2000, 1986 (E F S) Guidelines for forestry information processing, 1986 (E) Monitoring and evaluation of social forestry in India – an operational guide, 1986 (E) Wood preservation manual, 1986 (E) Databook on endangered tree and shrub species and provenances, 1986 (E) Appropriate wood harvesting in plantation forests, 1987 (E) Small-scale forest-based processing enterprises, 1987 (E F S) Forestry extension methods, 1987 (E) Guidelines for forest policy formulation, 1987 (C E) Forest products prices 1967–1986, 1988 (E F S) Trade in forest products: a study of the barriers faced by the developing countries, 1988 (E) Forest products: World outlook projections – Product and country tables 1987–2000, 1988 (E F S) 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 Forestry extension curricula, 1988 (E F S) Forestry policies in Europe, 1988 (E) Small-scale harvesting operations of wood and non-wood forest products involving rural people, 1988 (E F S) Management of tropical moist forests in Africa, 1989 (E F P) Review of forest management systems of tropical Asia, 1989 (E) Forestry and food security, 1989 (Ar E S) Design manual on basic wood harvesting technology, 1989 (E F S) (Published only as FAO Training Series, No 18) Forestry policies in Europe – An analysis, 1989 (E) Energy conservation in the mechanical forest industries, 1990 (E S) Manual on sawmill operational maintenance, 1990 (E) Forest products prices 1969–1988, 1990 (E F S) Planning and managing forestry research: guidelines for managers, 1990 (E) Non-wood forest products: the way ahead, 1991 (E S) Timber plantations in the humid tropics of Africa, 1993 (E F) Cost control in forest harvesting and road construction, 1992 (E) Introduction to ergonomics in forestry in developing countries, 1992 (E F I) Management and conservation of closed forests in tropical America, 1993 (E F P S) Research management in forestry, 1992 (E F S) Mixed and pure forest plantations in the tropics and subtropics, 1992 (E F S) Forest products prices 1971–1990, 1992 (E F S) Compendium of pulp and paper training and research institutions, 1992 (E) Economic assessment of forestry project impacts, 1992 (E F) Conservation of genetic resources in tropical forest management – Principles and concepts, 1993 (E F S) 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 A decade of wood energy activities within the Nairobi Programme of Action, 1993 (E) Directory of forestry research organizations, 1993 (E) Proceedings of the Meeting of Experts on Forestry Research, 1993 (E F S) Forestry policies in the Near East region – analysis and synthesis, 1993 (E) Forest resources assessment 1990 – tropical countries, 1993 (E) Ex situ storage of seeds, pollen and in vitro cultures of perennial woody plant species, 1993 (E) Assessing forestry project impacts: issues and strategies, 1993 (E F S) Forestry policies of selected countries in Asia and the Pacific, 1993 (E) Les panneaux base de bois, 1993 (F) Mangrove forest management guidelines, 1994 (E) Biotechnology in forest tree improvement, 1994 (E) Numéro non assigné Decline and dieback of trees and forests – a global overview, 1994 (E) Ecology and rural education – Manual for rural teachers, 1995 (E S) Readings in sustainable forest management, 1994 (E F S) Forestry education – New trends and prospects, 1994 (E F S) Forest resources assessment 1990 – Global synthesis, 1995 (E F S) Forest products prices 1973–1992, 1995 (E F S) Climate change, forests and forest management – An overview, 1995 (E F S) Valuing forests: context, issues and guidelines, 1995 (E F S) Forest resources assessment 1990 – Tropical forest plantation resources, 1995 (E) Environmental impact assessment and environmental auditing in the pulp and paper industry, 1996 (E) Forest resources assessment 1990 – Survey of tropical forest cover and study of change processes, 1996 (E) 131 132 133 134 135 136 137/1 137/2 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 Ecología y enseñanza rural – Nociones ambientales básicas para profesores rurales y extensionistas, 1996 (S) Forestry policies of selected countries in Africa, 1996 (E F) Forest codes of practice – Contributing to environmentally sound forest operations, 1996 (E) Estimating biomass and biomass change of tropical forests – A primer, 1997 (E) Guidelines for the management of tropical forests – The production of wood, 1998 (E S) Managing forests as common property, 1998 (E) Forestry policies in the Caribbean – Volume 1: Proceedings of the expert consultation, 1998 (E) Forestry policies in the Caribbean – Volume 2: Reports of 28 selected countries and territories, 1998 (E) FAO Meeting on Public Policies Affecting Forest Fires, 2001 (E F S) Governance principles for concessions and contacts in public forests, 2003 (E F S) Global Forest Resources Assessment 2000 – Main report, 2002 (E F S) Forestry Outlook Study for Africa – Regional report: opportunities and challenges towards 2020, 2003 (Ar E F) Cross-sectoral policy impacts between forestry and other sectors, 2003 (E F S) Sustainable management of tropical forests in Central Africa – In search of excellence, 2003 (E F) Climate change and the forest sector – Possible national and subnational legislation, 2004 (E) Best practices for improving law compliance in the forest sector, 2005 (E F R S) Microfinance and forest-based smallscale enterprises, 2005 (Ar E F S) Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005 – Progress towards sustainable forest management, 2006 (E F S) Tendencias y perspectivas del sector forestal en América Latina y el Caribe, 2006 (S) Better forestry, less poverty – a practitioner’s guide, 2006 (Ar E F S) 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 The new generation of watershed management programmes and projects, 2006 (E F S) Fire management – Global assessment 2006, 2007 (E) People, forests and trees in West and Central Asia – Outlook for 2020, 2007 (Ar E R) The world’s mangroves 1980–2005, 2007 (E) Forests and energy – Key issues, 2008 (Ar C E F R S) Forests and water, 2008 (E F S) Global review of forest pests and diseases, 2009 (E) Human-wildlife conflict in Africa – Causes, consequences and management strategies, 2009 (E F) Fighting sand encroachment – Lessons from Mauritania, 2010 (E F) Impact of the global forest industry on atmospheric greenhouse gases, 2010 (E) Criteria and indicators for sustainable woodfuels, 2010 (E) Developing effective forest policy – A guide, 2010 (E F S) What woodfuels can to mitigate climate change, 2010 (E) Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010 – Main report (Ar C E F R S) Guide to implementation of phytosanitary standards in forestry, 2011 (C E F R) Reforming forest tenure – Issues, principles and process, 2011 (E S) Community-based fire management – a review (E) Wildlife in a changing climate (E) Soil carbon monitoring using surveys and modelling – (E) Global forest land-use change 1990– 2005 (E F S) Sustainable management of Pinus radiata plantations (E) Edible insects – Future prospects for food and feed security (E F) Climate change guidelines for forest managers (E F S) Multiple-use forest management in the humid tropics (E S) Towards effective national forest funds, 2015 (E) 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 Global guidelines for the restoration of degraded forests and landscapes in drylands – Building resilience and benefiting livelihoods, 2015 (E) Forty years of community-based forestry – A review of its extent and effectiveness, 2016 (E) Forestry for a low-carbon future – Integrating forests and wood products in climate change strategies, 2016 (E) Guidelines on urban and peri-urban forestry, 2016 (E) National socioeconomic surveys in forestry – Guidance and survey modules for measuring the multiple roles of forests in household welfare and livelihoods, 2016 (E F S) Making forest concessions in the tropics work to achieve the 2030 Agenda: Voluntary Guidelines, 2018 (E) Climate change for forest policymakers – An approach for integrating climate change into national forest policy in support of sustainable forest management – Version 2.0, 2018 (E) Guide to the classical biological control of insect pests in planted and natural forests (E) Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people – a framework methodology (E) Ar – Arabic C – Chinese E – English I – Italian F – French K – Korean P – Portuguese S – Spanish R – Russian M – Multilingual * – Out of print FAO Forestry Papers are available through the authorized FAO Sales agents or directly from Sales and Marketing Group, FAO, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy, or at www.fao.org/forestry/58718/en/ 0.50 cm spine for 100pg on 90g paper 183 183 FAO FORESTRY PAPER Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people – a framework methodology Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people A framework methodology Negative impacts of climate change on forests threaten the delivery of crucial wood and non-wood goods and environmental services on which an estimated 1.6 billion people fully or partly depend Assessment of the vulnerability of forests and forest-dependent people to climate change is a necessary first step for identifying the risks and the most vulnerable areas and people, and for developing measures for adaptation and targeting them for specific contexts This publication provides practical technical guidance for forest vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change It describes the elements that should be considered for different time horizons and outlines a structured approach for conducting these assessments The framework will guide practitioners in conducting a step-by-step analysis and will facilitate the choice and use of appropriate tools and methods Background information is provided separately in text boxes, to assist readers with differing amounts of experience in forestry, climate change and assessment practices The publication will provide useful support to any vulnerability assessment with a forest- and tree-related component 789251 ISSN 0258-6150 319819 CA7064EN/1/11.19 FAO A framework methodology FAO FORESTRY PAPER 183 ISSN 0258-6150 ISBN 978-92-5-131981-9 Climate change vulnerability assessment of forests and forest-dependent people ... vulnerability of a forest to many of the impacts of climate change and are often perceived as greater and more immediate threats to tropical forests than climate change (Guariguata, Locatelli and Haupt,... related to forest management and climate change adaptation, and in particular on the experience of FAO and the CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry (FTA) The framework has... context Climate change mitigation, compensation, technical adaptation Social adaptation Relationship between vulnerability and adaptive capacity Adaptive capacity determines vulnerability Vulnerability