REDUCING CRIME How I reduce crime in my police command? How I tackle chronic crime problems? How I address the long-term issues that have plagued my community? How I analyze crime and criminal behavior? How I show evidence of success in crime reduction? What works, what doesn’t, and how we know? Providing answers to these questions and more, this engaging and accessible book offers a foundation for leadership in modern policing Blending concepts from crime science, environmental criminology, and the latest research in evidence-based policing, the book draws on examples from around the world to cover a range of issues such as: • • • • • • • • how to analyze crime problems and what questions to ask why the PANDA model is your key to crime reduction key features of criminal behavior relevant to police commanders the current research on what works in police crime prevention why to set up systems to avoid surprises and monitor crime patterns how to develop evidence of your effectiveness forming a crime reduction plan and tracking progress and finally, how to make a wider contribution to the policing field Crammed with useful tips, checklists, and advice, including first-person perspectives from police practitioners, case studies, and chapter summaries, this book is essential reading both for police professionals taking leadership courses and promotion exams, and for students engaged with police administration and community safety Jerry H Ratcliffe is a professor and former British police officer who works with police agencies around the world on crime reduction and criminal intelligence strategy After an ice-climbing accident ended a decade-long career with London’s Metropolitan Police, he earned a first-class honors degree and a PhD from the University of Nottingham He has published over 80 research articles and numerous books on policing and crime reduction, including (also with Routledge) Intelligence-Led Policing He has been a research advisor to the FBI and the Philadelphia Police Commissioner The book draws on his more than 30 years’ experience working with police services from El Salvador to New Zealand “This is an accessible guide for everyday policing There is a real need for an informed practical approach to leadership practice It’s an easy interesting read, and Ratcliffe deserves some kind of award for collating these checklists I wish I had had this as a superintendent.” Sir Denis O’Connor, Her Majesty’s Chief Inspector of Constabulary (rtd.) and affiliated lecturer, Institute of Criminology, University of Cambridge (U.K.) “Whether you are just beginning as a police leader or have been in a leadership position for years, ‘Reducing Crime’ should be the first call for back up when you are faced with a complicated crime problem Of all the books I have read on crime science, this wins hands down on its ability to explain how to approach problems practically in the complex world of modern day policing This is a book I would like to see as part of the Police leadership curriculum The structure of the book and the personal touch of real police leaders’ experiences makes it the best I have read.” Bruce O’Brien, Inspector, New Zealand Police “Reducing Crime is a must-read for any senior leader in today’s evolving police environment Twenty-first century policing demands more than the standard reactive-model approaches from decades past Today’s police leaders require more strategic responses to crime prevention, awareness of community harms, and education regarding evidencebased practices Often missing in today’s command level training, this book bridges the gap and should sit as a ready-reference on every commander’s desk.” Chris Vallejo, Lieutenant, Austin Police Department, Texas (U.S.) “I have read the book which is excellent and I only wish I had been able to read this five years ago It is full of information, reflections, observations and resources that will support any serving police officer either in post or thinking about future roles I recommend it as a must read for all police professionals Jerry has done the almost impossible by presenting solid academic material in a format that appeals and is easy to understand and more importantly, put into use.” Inspector Dan Reynolds, Inspector, Cheshire Police (U.K.) A COMPANION FOR POLICE LEADERS JERRY H RATCLIFFE First published 2019 by Routledge Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2019 Jerry H Ratcliffe The right of Jerry H Ratcliffe to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 All rights reserved No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record has been requested for this book ISBN: 978-0-8153-5460-4 (hbk) ISBN: 978-0-8153-5461-1 (pbk) ISBN: 978-1-351-13235-0 (ebk) Typeset in Joanna by Apex CoVantage, LLC Visit the companion website: www.reducingcrime.com CONTENTS Figures Boxes Tables Foreword by Charles H Ramsey Acknowledgments Disclaimer Notes The strategic police leader The new world of police leadership A community harm perspective A three-pronged approach to crime reduction The PANDA model The structure of this book 14 Chapter summary 16 References 16 The PANDA crime reduction model A framework for crime reduction 19 Checklists and memory aids 21 The role of PANDA in your job 24 ix xi xv xvii xix xxi xxiii 19 vi CONTENTS Chapter summary References 29 29 Problem scanning The view from pattern altitude 31 The problem scan 35 The CHEERS framework 37 Chronics, spikes, and panics 39 An example problem scan 46 Chapter summary 48 References 48 Analyzing crime problems Why analysis is vital to reducing crime VOLTAGE 53 Crime analysis 56 Criminal intelligence 60 Community information 65 A burglary example 69 Chapter summary 73 Note 74 References 74 31 51 51 Understanding crime patterns What causes crime? 75 Why individuals become criminals? 76 Opportunity causes crime 81 Neighborhoods and crime attractors 87 Displacement and why drug markets are like fast food restaurants 91 Social networks are important 92 Most crime is local 94 Chapter summary 97 References 97 How the police can impact crime Focus on what can be achieved 101 Things that you shouldn’t rely on 102 75 101 CONTENTS vii Crime prevention 107 Enforcement 112 Hot spots policing 115 Proactive strategies 118 Chapter summary 123 References 124 Nominating your strategy Define your mission statement 127 Nominating a VIPER strategy 129 Getting help with VIPER ideas 138 An example mission and VIPER response Chapter summary 146 References 147 127 144 Deploying a crime reduction strategy Time for D-Day 149 Implementing your GOALS 150 Once the strategy is underway 157 Chapter summary 160 References 161 149 Assessing your outcomes The OILRIG checklist 163 Learning from failure 177 The ABC spreadsheet 179 Chapter summary 181 Note 182 References 182 163 10 Evidence-based policing Policing as a science 183 Evidence and experience 186 Understanding research studies 192 Where to find existing evidence 195 Bringing together the evidence 199 Starting to develop your own evidence 183 201 viii CONTENTS Chapter summary References 206 205 11 Leadership and crime management A brief primer on leadership 207 Managing up 212 Managing across and down 213 Rethink management meetings 217 Making area change happen 221 Managing yourself 229 Parting words 231 Chapter summary 232 References 232 207 Index 235 FIGURES 1.1 2.1 3.1 3.2 4.1 5.1 5.2 6.1 6.2 6.3 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 10.1 11.1 11.2 11.3 Violence compared to confidence in police The PANDA model One year of incidents by volume for Philadelphia Pickpocketing and asociated property loss in New Orleans 8th Police District The 4-i model of intelligence-led policing The classic age-crime curve of offending and age The crime triangle The crime funnel Inputs, outputs, and outcomes Science versus experience in decision-making Monthly crime counts in one housing project (A) Extended monthly crime counts in one housing project (A) Monthly crime counts in two housing projects (A and B) Implementation and outcome evaluation focus Optional paths from assessing outcomes stage Example activity, buffer, and control areas Evidence hierarchy for policy decision-making Adair’s action-centered model Leadership and decision-making continuum Strategic and tactical meeting cycle example 28 32 43 64 79 89 102 104 106 166 167 168 170 179 180 194 209 211 221 228 LEADERSHIP AND CRIME MANAGEMENT police management thinks that failure is bad, and in policing failure seems inevitably associated with blame And blame can damage careers So we set up organizational and cultural systems to avoid evaluation, promote success (even in the absence of supporting evidence), and vehemently reject criticism Just about everyone in police management thinks that failure is bad, and in policing failure seems inevitably associated with blame This culture of blame originates externally (from politicians and the media) but manifests internally It damages policing, drives risk aversion, and makes everyone defensive, only admitting failure in the relative safety of ‘job’ pubs and bars By focusing on blame rather than learning, we train young police commanders to stick rigidly within a narrow range of approved strategies and tactics and disregard more imaginative approaches to the crime problem They stop using their initiative and common sense The rare times when there is an openness to learning from failure, there is a lack of appreciation of how difficult progress really is Executives (police and otherwise), who should know better, also think that learning from failure is relatively straightforward Have a quick debrief, promise to better, and move on But this hit-andrun approach to learning lessons misses the point Systems that fail so because of a long history of tradition, risk aversion, complacency, and conformity Those systems are harder to change than most folk appreciate As one superintendent told me “you can fail in policing, as long as you fail conventionally.” Embrace failure as vital to learning what will work in the long term Think of it this way: We haven’t failed, we just haven’t succeeded yet And we usefully learned what doesn’t work Recall the lesson of James Dyson and his prototype vacuums from Chapter Promote a culture that encourages trying new approaches and ways of thinking You might even choose to reward innovation, even if it isn’t eventually successful Otherwise, we end up with organizations LEADERSHIP AND CRIME MANAGEMENT 229 that stagnate As an inspector in a large police service said to me with a heavy sigh, “We have 180 years of tradition unimpeded by progress.” MANAGING YOURSELF Resilience With luck, you will have a long career, so take care of yourself Command can be rewarding but also stressful Set reasonable goals for work projects and those around you This is especially important when working with partner agencies Because they are not answerable for the level of crime in an area, they can lack the urgency that inhabits policing That can be stressful, so set realistic expectations for how long they are likely to get their part of any project up and running Managing your stress is essential for effective leadership An established body of research has connected the psychological wellbeing of staff to job-related outcomes such as individual and organizational productivity Because crime and other social problems originate outside of policing, this can be tough when we see little improvement in the short term We should always strive to as much as we can, but still retain a recognition of the illusion of control (Box 11.6) BOX 11.6 THE ILLUSION OF CONTROL The illusion of control is a cognitive bias that fools us into thinking we have complete control as to how a situation will unfold at times when we have no control Once you have taken all of the available actions that are within your grasp and capacity to control, it is helpful to realize and acknowledge that you have done as much as you can Within policing, there are many socio-economic variables that we have no control over, all of which can impact on crime and disorder Don’t use this as an excuse for inaction, but at the same time recognize that finding fault in yourself unnecessarily can lead to frustration and sometimes anger or confusion.12 230 LEADERSHIP AND CRIME MANAGEMENT Psychological resilience is “the role of mental processes and behavior in promoting personal assets and protecting an individual from the potential negative effect of stressors.”13 That sounds like something we need more of in policing There isn’t the space in this short book to delve into workplace resilience, but the evidence is increasingly clear that we should all pay attention to our psychological well-being at work Keep learning Policing research and innovation is now happening at a pace never experienced before For example, the U.K.’s College of Policing has an active research agenda, and the American Society of Criminology has a Division of Policing that has a growing number of scholars and pracademics who are working with police departments on a variety of crime and officer safety projects We are on the verge of a significant growth in understanding better practices in policing, crime prevention, and officer safety It’s important that you keep yourself (and your colleagues) appraised of the latest developments A former boss of mine once neatly summarized the difference between a job and a profession She said, a profession demands an extra ten hours a week These aren’t necessarily hours at work, but instead time spent reading, thinking, watching work-related videos, undertaking education, attending courses, discussing in online debates, or attending presentations on issues relevant to your profession If you consider yourself a professional, invest in yourself Contribute to the profession Policing is full of innovation Regrettably, we learn so little of what good work is taking place As poet Thomas Gray wrote, “Full many a flower is born to blush unseen, and waste its sweetness on the desert air.” We can learn from each other in lots of ways, and it is morale boosting to advertise successes both internally and externally LEADERSHIP AND CRIME MANAGEMENT 231 It remains the case that most police officers learn from their colleagues and from what neighboring police departments are doing Try and be less parochial and advertise your successes (and even positive failures that are learning opportunities) not just in department newsletters, but also blogs and social media Join a society, like one of the evidence-based policing societies mentioned in the previous chapter They are full of officers like yourself who are interested in moving policing forward They have annual meetings where you can learn about innovative approaches to your work Watching a clip on YouTube is okay, but there is nothing like being in an audience and having the chance to discuss what you learn with neighbors in the meeting with you And there are usually opportunities to meet with and ask questions of the presenter PARTING WORDS If your role involves taking a new command, you are probably experiencing a range of emotions Your first days will be a whirlwind of new challenges and it might be easy to forget some of the ideas in this book Once you settle it, dig it out again and refresh your memory Like flying an aircraft, policing can be tough to master and sometimes challenging But it can also afford a view of the world rarely experienced by most people I hope this book gives you the encouragement to tackle the challenge of reducing crime, improve community safety, and persevere with chronic problems where others have given up As Inspector Tracey Thompson says at the start of this book: “It’s a long journey.” Embrace education, promote evidence-based policing, and keep your institution learning and moving forward As Thomas Jefferson noted, “Laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind As that becomes more developed, more enlightened, as new discoveries are made, new truths disclosed, and manners and opinions change with the change of circumstances, institutions must advance also, and keep pace with the times.”14 Be safe, and best of luck 232 LEADERSHIP AND CRIME MANAGEMENT CHAPTER SUMMARY • There are many leadership styles, including charismatic, situational, appointed, functional, and authentic • The functional leader can change approach to meet various demands and needs • An authentic leader is someone who exhibits a strong degree of self-awareness and is able to examine their own strengths and weaknesses • Adair’s action-centered model revolves around the team, the task, and the individual • Transactional leadership is suited to day-to-day managers and involves setting goals and using rewards and feedback to drive productivity • Transformational leaders think about organizational change, the mission, and are considered more inspirational, exhorting workers to achieve more and seek aspirational goals for the benefits of others • Delegation has many benefits for both the leader and the team • Strategic and tactical meetings should be part of the Compstat process • Keep learning and contribute to the profession • If you consider yourself a professional, invest in yourself Don’t forget that supporting materials are at reducingcrime.com and you can also subscribe to updates on Twitter @_reducingcrime (please note the underscore) REFERENCES Boon, B., Blackstone’s Leadership for Sergeants and Inspectors 2015, Oxford: Oxford University Press Adair, J., Action Centred Leadership 1973, Maidenhead: McGraw-Hill Crawford, A and M Cunningham, Working in partnership: The challenges of working across organizational boundaries, cultures, and practices, in Police Leadership: Rising to the Top, J Fleming, Editor 2015, Oxford University Press: Oxford p 71–94 LEADERSHIP AND CRIME MANAGEMENT 233 Davis, C and D Bailey, Police leadership: The challenges for developing contemporary practice International Journal of Emergency Services, 2017 7(1): p 13–23 Beech, N., E Gulledge, and D Stewart, Change leadership: The application of alternative models in structural policing changes, in Police Leadership: Rising to the Top, J FLeming, Editor 2015, Oxford University Press: Oxford p 257–74 Armstrong, M., Handbook of Human Resource Management Practice (11th edition) 2009, London: Kogan Page Ratcliffe, J.H., Intelligence-Led Policing (2nd edition) 2016, Abingdon, Oxon.: Routledge 7(1): p 13–23 Pease, K and J Roach, How to morph experience into evidence in Advances in EvidenceBased Policing, J Knutsson and L Tompson, Editors 2017, Routledge: New York p 84–97 Weisburd, D and M.K Majmundar, eds Proactive Policing: Effects on Crime and Communities 2017, National Academies of Sciences Consensus Study Report: Washington, D.C p 2–22 10 Kunard, L and C Moe, Procedural Justice for Law Enforcement: An Overview 2015, Office of Community Oriented Policing Services: Washington, D.C 11 Sherman, L.W., Targeting, testing and tracking police services: The rise of evidence-based policing, 1975–2025, in Crime and Justice in America, 1975–2025, M Tonry, Editor 2013, University of Chicago Press: Chicago 12 Langer, E.J., The illusion of control Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1975 32(2): p 311–28 13 Fletcher, D and M Sarkar, Psychological resilience: A review and critique of definitions, concepts, and theory European Psychologist, 2013 18(1): p 12–23 14 Jefferson, T., Jefferson to H Tompkinson (AKA Samuel Kercheval), in The Papers of Thomas Jefferson Retirement series., J.J Looney, Editor 1816, Princeton University Press: Princeton p 226–27 INDEX Locators in bold refer to tables and those in italics to figures 3-i intelligence-led policing model 24, 64 4-i intelligence-led policing model 24, 64 ABC spreadsheet: components of 179–81, 182; diffusion of benefits 169, 181; displacement 169, 181; Operation Thumbs Down example 179–81 acronyms 22 action-centered leadership 208–9, 209 Adair, John 208–9 adolescence 78–79 age-crime curve 79 aggregate criminal behavior 82–83 alcohol 56, 111 Allen, Corey 34–35 American Society of Evidence-Based Policing (ASEBP) 205 analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH) 71–72 Analyze problem (A) step: burglary example and 69–73; community information 65–69; crime analysis and 56–60, 59; criminal intelligence and 60–61, 62, 63–65, 64; importance of 51–53; see also PANDA Model; VOLTAGE checklist area commanders: community harm perspective for 4–6; crime reduction priorities and 7–9; Jim Bueermann on 27–28; preparation for becoming 2–4, 6; scrutiny of 2; see also leadership Assess outcomes (A) step: acceptability of results and 173–75; burglary example 166–69; counterfactuals/controls 167–68; 236 INDEX goal revision and 176–77; implementation evaluation 170–72, 170; implementation failure and 172; importance of data and 169–70; importance of 163; ineffective strategies and 103–4; intelligence gained from 175–76; lessons from 172–73; next steps following 177–78, 179; outcome assessment 165–69; outputs vs outcomes 104–5, 104; see also OILRIG checklist; PANDA Model attractors in VOLTAGE framework 56 Australia & New Zealand Society of Evidence Based Policing (ANZSEBP) 205 availability bias 191 bars: as crime attractors 87; as problem places 37, 39; routine activities theory and 82; street sources and 68 Baughman, Jonas 169–70 Bayley, David 104 biological criminology 76 biosocial criminology 77–78 Bishopp, Steve 83 Bittner, Egon 185 boosters 93 Boston Operation Ceasefire 122 Braga, Anthony 116 Bratton, Bill 217 Bueermann, Jim 27–28 burglaries: aggregate criminal behavior and 82–83; routine activities theory and 82 burglary example 69–73, 144–46, 166–68, 199–201 burglary investigations: checklists for 21; surveys and 68–69 cab drivers as sources 68 Caller-ID 92 camera surveillance systems 111, 112 Campbell Collaboration 198 Canadian Society of Evidence Based Policing (CAN-SEBP) 205 Center for Problem-Oriented Policing 198–99 checklists: in aviation 21–22; for burglary investigations 21; risk assessment forms and 22; see also PANDA model CHEERS framework 37–39 chronic problems 39–41, 136 Clarke, Ron 38, 92 cognitive loafing 151 Colquhoun, Patrick 15–16, 184 community: addressing needs of 137–38; confidence in police and 4, 5; procedural justice, and 131, 222–24; reassurance and 135–38; as stakeholders in public safety 28; see also partnerships community information: community meetings 65–67; street sources 68; surveys 67, 68–69 Compstat meetings: National Intelligence Model (U.K.) and 220; problems with traditional 217–20; strategic and tactical meeting cycle 220–21, 221 INDEX confirmation bias 59, 191 Crawford, A 209 crime analysis 41, 56–60; local patterns and 94–95, 96 crime analysts: analytical process and 53, 57; problem scanning and 33; as stakeholders in public safety 28; working with 64–65 crime analysts, in GOALS framework 153–54 crime attractors 88 crime funnel 102–3, 102 crime generators 87–88 crime panics 44–45, 136 crime pattern theory 83–84 crime scientists 75 Crime Solutions (National Institute of Justice) 196–97 crime spike bias 43 crime spikes 40, 41–44, 45, 136 crime theory: aggregate criminal behavior 82–83; biosocial influences 77–78; crime attractors 88; crime generators 87–88; crime pattern theory 83–84; crime triangle 89, 90; developmental influences 78–79; dispositional view of crime 75; displacement theory 91; policing and criminological theory 80–81; rational choice perspective 84–86; routine activities theory 81–82; situational influences 80; structural factors in crime 76–77; VOLTAGE framework and 86–87 crime triangle 89, 90 237 criminal behavior; aggregate 82–83 criminal intelligence: confidential informants 62; crime analysts and 64–65; policing and 60–61; social networks and 93–94; sources of 60, 63 criminal justice system 102–3 criminologists 75 criminology see crime theory Cunningham, M 209 Cure Violence (Chicago, IL) 122 Daly, Paul 111, 112, 113 DASH (domestic abuse, stalking, and harassment) 22 delegation 214–15 Deploy strategy (D) step: delegation 156–57; demonstrating investment in 158–59; hot spots and 159; mission creep 154, 159; strategies leading up to 149; supervision and 157–58; timetable for review 159–60; see also GOALS checklist; PANDA Model developmental and life-course (DLC) perspective 79 diffusion of benefits 91–92, 169 disorderly behavior 35 displacement theory 91, 169 dispositional theory of crime 75 disturbances harm-focused policing and 35 Drug Abuse Resistance Education (DARE) 185 drugs: crime attractors and 88; diffusion of benefits 92; 238 INDEX displacement theory and 91; moral filter and 80; social networks and 93–94; VOLTAGE framework and 56 Dunning-Kruger effect 85 Eck, John 38 EMMIE framework 195 empathy 60–61, 62 enforcement: benefits of 112–13; negatives of 113–14; as part of VIPER checklist 134–35, 146; problem ownership and 114–15; tactics for 112 enhancers in VOLTAGE framework 56 environmental criminologists 75 evidence-based policing: academic institutions and 202–3; burglary example 199–201; development of 201–2; evaluation of research studies and 192–95, 194; evidence hierarchy for policy decision 194; evidence types 186–88, 187; experience and 183–84, 188–92; resources for evidence 195–99; societies for 203–5; use of evidence strategies 199–201, 200; working definition of 184 Evidence-Based Policing matrix 198 Felson, Marcus 81–82 Flood, Brian 24 Flores, Francisco 135 focused deterrence strategies 121–23 Gallagher, Martin 67 Galton, Francis 45, 140–41 gangs: focused deterrence strategies and 121–23; Mano Dura (‘Iron Fist’) policy in El Salvador 135; social networks and 93–94; VOLTGAGE framework and 56 Gaspar, Roger 24 generators, of crime 56 GOALS checklist: analysts 153–54; breakdown of 150; delegation and 156–57; goal revision and 176–77; ground commander 150–52; limits 154–55; objectives 152–53; supervision of 156–57; supports 155–56; see also Deploy strategy (D) step Goldstein, Herman 114 Gospage, Phil 61 graffiti 35 Greer, Stuart 21 Groff, Elizabeth 196–97 Group Violence Reduction Strategy (New Orleans, Louisiana) 122 guardians 89 Guillén Meléndez, Pedro 154, 156–57 Hagan, Shawn 60–61, 63 Halliday, Shane 62 handlers 88–89 harm-focused policing 33–35 HIPPO policing 185 homeless people as street sources 68 hot spots 8, 115–17, 159 human information sources 62 Huxley, Thomas 24 hypothesis testing 140 INDEX 239 impartiality 222–23 intelligence gaps 132–33 internet crimes 95 intuition, role of 105–7, 106 locations: as component of VOLTAGE framework 56; see also problem places Lum, Cynthia 105–6, 186 Jill Dando Institute for Crime Science 140 Jones, Morgan 52–53 Mano Dura (‘Iron Fist’) policy in El Salvador 135 Maple, Jack 101 MARAC 22 Maryland Scientific Methods Scale 193 McGuire, Tarrick 137–38 mental health issues 56 mentoring 216–17 mission creep 154, 159 mission statements 127–30, 144–45 Mitchell, Renée 201–2 moral filter 80 Moser, Don 217–18 Moskos, Pete 153 Murray, Alex 227 Koper Curve 200, 201 leadership: action-centered leadership 208–9, 209; advance warning and 226–27; challenge of training for 207–8; communication of values and 209–10; community and 3–4; community harm perspective and 4–6; consistency and 224; continuing education and 230; contribution to profession and 230–31; delegation and 214–15; failure and 226–29; illusion of control and 229; importance of 207; importance of setting tone and 215–17; innovation killers and 224–26; management meetings and 217–21; management of samelevel colleagues 213; managing up and 212–13; management of staff 3–4, 213–14; procedural justice and 222–24; resilience and 229; resistance and 214; retaining people from previous commanders and 222; transactional vs transformational 210–12, 211 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine 117, 118 National Police Research Platform 67 National Reassurance Policing Programme (U.K.) 136 National Research Council (U.S.) 117 natural police 61, 63 Nawaz, Arif 151–52 neighborhoods: crime attractors/ generators 87–89; focus on 90–91; protective factors 89–90 Nestel, Tom 209–10 Nominate strategy (N) step: burglary example 144–46; detail of in 240 INDEX PANDA model 26; enforcement 134–35, 146; incorporating evidence into 199–201, 200; intelligence gaps 132–33, 145; mission statements 127–30, 144–45; prevention 133–34, 145; reassurance 135–38, 146; victim support and 130–32, 145; VIPER checklist in 26, 129–30, 145–46 O’Connor, Denis offenders: as component of VOLTAGE framework 55; offender-targeted policing 118, 120–21; range of 94–95; routine activities theory and 81–82 OILRIG checklist: acceptability of results and 173–75; in Assess outcomes (A) step 26, 27, 182; burglary example 166–69; counterfactuals/controls 167–68; goal revision and 176–77; implementation evaluation 170–72, 170; intelligence gained from 175–76; lessons from 172–73; outcome evaluation 165–69; see also Assess outcomes (A) step Operation Bullseye 93 Operation Thumbs Down (Los Angeles, CA) 123 PANDA model: described 23, 25–26; graphic of 28; resistance to proactive policing and 10–13; use of 24–25; using components of 27; vs current model 19–20; see also Analyze problem (A) step; Assess outcomes (A) step; Deploy strategy (D) step; Nominate strategy (N) step; Problem scan (P) step Parkes, Andy 172 partnerships: chronic problems and 46; leadership and 213, 224; in setting with a university 151–52; sharing data and 6–7; stakeholder evidence and 200; VIPER framework and 142–44 Pease, Ken 186, 222 Pegram, Roger 203–4 Philadelphia Foot Patrol Experiment 191 Philadelphia Policing Tactics Experiment 118, 196–97 PIER framework see VIPER checklist place managers 68, 89–90 police leaders see area commanders policing: goals of 1; social service function of 1; anti-intellectualism and pracademics 185 President’s Task Force on 21st Century Policing 67, 142–43 prevailing conditions 101 prevention: easy opportunities and 107–8; as part of the VIPER checklist 133–34, 145; prevention mechanisms 108, 109–10, 111–12 proactive policing strategies: approaches in 119; focused deterrence 121–23; hot spots INDEX and 115–17; offender-targeted strategies 118, 120–21; as priority for area commanders 8; see also evidence-based policing problem places 37 Problem scan (P) step: about scope of 33; chronic problems 39–41, 45–46; crime panics and 44–46; crime spikes and 40, 41–44, 45–46; determining areas of concern 35–37; example of 46–48, 47; Philadelphia example 31–33, 32; see also PANDA Model procedural justice 131, 222–24 prostitutes 68, 88 protective factors 88–90 pulling levers strategy 121–23 quotas 153 Ramsey, Charles 7, 143, 226 rational choice perspective 84–86 reassurance 135–38, 146 Reducing Crime website 15, 199 regression to the mean 44, 45 repeat victimization 95 research studies: academic institutions and 202–3; creating 200–201; evaluation of 192–95; evidence-based policing societies and 203–5 resilience 229 risk assessment forms 22 Roach, Jason 186, 222 Robbins, Kelly 55–56, 68–69 241 Ross, Justin 119–20 Rumsfeld, Donald 54 Sacramento Hot Spots Experiment 201–2 SARA model 24 Scared Straight 163, 182n, 185 seasonal crime changes 43, 55, 166–67 Sherman, Larry 227 shoplifting 92, 93 Sidebottom, Aiden 22–23 signal crimes 136 situational action theory 80 SMART objectives 152–53, 165 social loafing 154, 159 social networks 92–94 Society of Evidence Based Policing (UK) 203–4 Spencer, Dave 139 Stewart, David 211 Stewart, Greg 96 strain theory 78–79 street sources 68 Stubbs, Gareth 10–11 suicides 88, 107–8 supervisor types 156–57 Surowiecki, James 140 Telep, Cody 105–6, 186 Thompson, Tracey 3–4, 231 Thornton, Sara times as component of VOLTAGE framework 56 traditional policing approach 19–20 traffic problems harm-focused policing and 35 242 INDEX Trainor, Neil 42 transactional leadership 210–12, 211 transformational leadership 210–12, 211 transparency 222–23 U.K College of Policing 188–89 U.K College of Policing Crime Reduction Toolkit 195–96 Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) 114 victim support 130–32 victims as component of VOLTAGE framework 55 violence as developmental influence 79 VIPER checklist: community partnerships and 142–44; enforcement 134–35, 146; evidence-based policing approach and 201; generating hypotheses for 138, 140–42; intelligence gaps 132–33; in Nominate strategy (N) step 26; Northamptonshire example 139; prevention 133–34, 145; reassurance 135–38, 146; resistance to change and 144; victim support 130–32; see also Nominate strategy (N) step VOLTAGE checklist: in Analyze problem (A) step 25, 53–56; burglary example and 69–73; crime attractors/generators 87–88; crime theory and 86–87; described 55–56, 74; neighborhoods and 87–91; see also Analyze problem (A) step vulnerable persons harm reduction and 34–35 Walt Disneys 63–64 Wensley, Frederick 13–14, 63, 76 wicked problems 36, 37 wisdom of crowds 140–42 .. .REDUCING CRIME How I reduce crime in my police command? How I tackle chronic crime problems? How I address the long-term issues that have plagued my community? How I analyze crime and... leadership position for years, ? ?Reducing Crime? ?? should be the first call for back up when you are faced with a complicated crime problem Of all the books I have read on crime science, this wins hands... example problem scan 46 Chapter summary 48 References 48 Analyzing crime problems Why analysis is vital to reducing crime VOLTAGE 53 Crime analysis 56 Criminal intelligence 60 Community information