dia phtfPng cd nhtfng thdng tin quan trong vd cac ye'u td' anh htfdng de'n mtfc gia san Idng chi tra cung nhtf mtfc gia san long chi trd trung binh cho boat ddng bdo ve mdi trtfdng md[r]
(1)QUANTRI-QUANLY
SlT S A N L O N G T A I TR0
CHO HOAT DONG BAO VE MOI TRlJCJNG TAI CAC DIEM DU LICH TINH PHU YEN: VAI TRO CUA KHACH DU LICH NQI DIA
• PHAM THI MONG H A N G
T M TAT:
Nghidn ctfu nham phdn tich cac yd'u td anh htfdng dd'n xdc sua't gia san long tra, cilng nhtf mtfc sdn long tra trung binh eiia du khach ndi dia dd'i vdi Quy bao ve mdi trtfdng cua tinh Phii Yen Tff dd, dffa nhffng gdi y chinh sach cho Sd Van hda The thao vd Du lich tinh Phu Yen viec tai trd cac hoat ddng bao vd mdi trffdng Phffdng phap tid'p can la ham hffu dung nglu nhidn eua Haab va MeConnell (2002), phtfdng phap xac dinh gia sCn long tra trung binh (MWTP) ciia Kaplan-Meier-TurnbuU (1976) va md hinb hdi qui logit vdi gid tri tra ldi la cd/khdng dtfdc stf dung dd phdn tich cdc yd'u td' anh hffdng tdi xdc sud't san long trd (WTP) ciia du khdch ndi dia eho boat ddng bao vd mdi trtfdng tai eac didm du lich tinh Phii Yen Ket qua nghien ctfu cho tha'y mtfc sdn long tra ciia du khach dtfdc tinh toan theo phtfdng phap TumbuU dtfdc xdc dinh la 10.000 ddng/ngtfdi/dem tai khdch san Mtfc san long chi tra cua du khach ndi dia dd'i vdi Quy bao vd mdi trtfdng tai tinh Phii Yen dffpc giai thich bdi "Tmh trang hdn nhan" va "Do tudi" Tdng so'tien ma du khach noi dia sdn long tra cho viec Idp Quy bao vd mdi trffdng cho tinh Phii Yen la 8.670.022.270 ddng nam 2017
Tiif khoa: Sff san long, du khdch ndi dia, bao ve mdi trffdng, cbi tra, tinh Phii Yen
1 Gitfi thieu
Nam tren dai da't duyen hai Nam Trung Bp, tinh Phii Yen dffde xem la mdt nhffng ndi cd phong canh thien nhien "sdn thiiy hffu tinh" vdi nhieu thdng canh ky thu, dpc ddo vd hd'p dan Sff da dang ve dia hinh, canh quan thidn nhidn nhff niii rffng, cao nguyen, ddng bang, bidn ddo, sdng hd, dam, da tao nen d ddy nhieu he sinh thai khac va cd nhffng net dac trtfng ndng, la mpt nhtfng dia diem du lich thu hiit khdch du lich va ngodi ntfdc Theo Vidn Nghien ctfu Phdt trien Du lieh Viet Nam, nganh Du lich dang chiu anh htfdng nhieu nha't ttf stf bid'n ddi hdu, mdi trtfdng sinh thai Do dd, du lich va mdi trtfdng Id hai bd phdn khdng the tach rdi nhau, mdi trtfdng
(2)dia phir(Jng cd nhffng thong tin quan trpng ve cac y6'u to anh hifdng den miJc gia san long chi tra cOng nhit mile gia san long chi tra trung binh cho hoat dpng bao ve mdi trifcJng ma lam ca sd cho viec Bp lje hoach phat trien, dau tU tai chinh, dac biet la viec bao ton va tai tao tai nguyen moi trirSng cua tinh Phii Yen de khai thac va phat tnen mpt each b^n vffng
2 Ctf sft ly thuyd't
2.1 Khdi nifin ve du lich, diem din du lich du khdch n^i dia
Td chffc Du lich The gidi (World Tourist Organization) cho rang: "Du lich bao gom ta't ca moi hoat dong cua nhffng ngffcli du hanh, tam trij, muc dich tham quan, kham pha va tim hie'u, trai nghiem hoac muc dfch nghi ngdi, gidi tri' thu gian ciing nhff muc dich hanh nghe va nhffng muc dich khac nffa, thdi gian lien tuc nhuHg khong qua mpt nam, d ben ngoai m8i trtfdng sd'ng dmh cff; nhffng loai trff cac du hanh ma cd muc dich chinh la kiem tiln Du lich cung la mdt dang nghi ngdi nang ddng mdi trffdng sdng khac nan noi dinh cff"
Td chffc Du lich The'gidi (2007) da dtfa quan mern ve diem den du lich (Tourism Destination)-khach du hch a lai f, nha't mdt dgm, bao gdm cac san pham du lich, cac dich vu cung cd'p cac tai nguyen du lich thu hfft khach, cd ranh g d hVnh
•x clin'hlh'* ™ ' ° •''""'" ''"^ ^^^^"^ "h xac dmh kha nang canh tranh tren thi trffdn." Theo Luat Du hch Viet Nam (2017)- "iaa°ch "" '!':'' "^' 1)^ 14 cdng dan Viet Nam n L f ^ u d c ^ o a ^ f f ^ t r d V i e t N a m d i d u l i c h t r ^ t : ^ " ; ' ^
>^nfchTJ%%T'''''''^"'^^^>''h,id.d
n g W e „ c f f r d a ^ ^ ; i a ' l n ^ ' ' ' V ^ ' ' * ' ' ™ " « hink danh gia dd thda I „ '" ' " = ' P"^' « " « -vngc^an^ttditri^rt f , : S - ^ ^ ; ; - H - H f f u gian tiep nhtf sau- '"^ " i ^ ' '^ach
^» = ".(Y,z;,a,) Trong dd:
^ ^ ^ " * ^ : " ^ ' ' ^ - " « ^ i r a , d i t h f f j
De mo ta cac dac tinh c &f' /a^^ *t>'' va " 1" Gia tri " I " la gia tri
' " la gia trj khong sdn long i' hang hoa chd't Itfdng moi ddi ttf trang thai " " tdi tratij tinh khac dtfdc dtfa vao deMi'' ^ < thai sang trang thai Aili'''*'^ chd't Itfdng moi trtfcfng (q) d A ' ' " '
[It-™ a ' n X T " ^ ' ' " ^ " - ' ^ ' * ' ' ? " l s f f ^ , M c h
158 S6'9
hinh VI vay, ham hffu diingllk»t*!;'^,-j trang thai "I " dtfdc vie't nhttjlcti!*'''*.*,!; U , = U ( Y , Z , , q « , e „ p U , l : - ; ; * j i i , IVlpt cau hot se de nghi ngtf*.'' ~ ,^«, Idng tra ciia hp cho viec cai thili • ? ' " ' ' -trtfdng Ho san long tra mli'cmiS*''*'' Iffdng moi trtfdng thay ddi a A''- ""; ^ trang thai 'I " NS'u cau tra Id lililip'*" nghia rang hp san Idng tra va if cd the cao hdn trang thai "O" hoacfc
VYj-Tj,Z,,6,^)>U„j(y^,"z fClia nang de du khach tra Idi', nang ma ngtfdi dffpc phong van i- the se tdt nha't d trang thai " " , mi* d trang thai:
TjPr(Cd,) =
Bien ddi ,;,p,'cach ddn gidu, h i t * * ' "
'^^Prlcd?-"'""^' U i S
P>;fV,'(Yj-T,,Zj) + E , P > V „ , ( Y l Ham hffu dung la mdt ham tiivl CO the dtfdc Viet dtfdi dang- [
V , j ( Y j - T j , Z ; = a,Zj + p,(Y,.Tj) V o j ( Y , Z ; = o.,Z, + p'„Y V,j(Y^-T,,Z,)-V„/Y^,Z,) = (a,-_a„)Zj + a,(Yj-T,)-p„Yj Vdi gia thiet rang hffu dung bien ciiaE la mpt hang sd'nam giffa trang thai "0''vL thai " " a, bang vdi a„ (Haab va McCi 2002), nen cd the vie't lai ham nhff sau:
V|,i-Voj = (ai-«<i)Zj-PT,
Bat a = (a, - ct„), do: V,j - V^, = oZj-l'.rru Kha nang 6i du khach tri Idi la "Cd " se If Pr(Cdj) = Pr(aZj - PTj + c^O) EJ = e,^ - s, Gia san Idng tra tfung binh cua du khach ffl xac dinh nhtf sau:
MWTP = Itj(P,-Pj^,) 2.3 Cdcyi'u to dnh hilling den sif sdn Ibnm
Be ffdc Iffdng md hlnh hOli dung ngSu nhien f ham hffu dung tuyd'n tinh, chffng ta sff dung m hinh hdi qui logit vdi gia tn" tra Idi la cd/khSiiSl" Thang 5/2019
(3)
ni""-QIIANTRI-qUANiy
'7-"'0 , ^^'^'t/k ' 'ao "§ ^^^ (bie'n phu thudc) Cac
"w ^"'^ cA "^ssn^'^a nhffng dac didm kinh te -tini, '"''^"fa.''""'-.' "'*?': S"" ^ich bSi phtfong
:S', '"»5„
1, -"'On,, * ' ' * '"> "iJi ã:;;*'ằllif'i8nci?B
ã ^ ts,,'!'''!ô'%.''ffdng phap nghi6n cffu '"^i.r
''"(.• 1,, Seo phtfPng phap thudn tien ed
"h,,,
'-, (| n phdt bang cau hdi cho nhffng '^•Jt-fl,,, tfulddu khdch ndi dia dd'n tham : Ho ^ "'^"''" I If'''I du lich tai tinh Phu Ydn Thdi l^""'^ni6],/"Sw!,^ 01/08/2018 den ngdy
^pKi j "%(iji ,'iihi sdng loc, loai bd tbi so'Itfpng
Klii the tf
,.-J -
'I't-h ,
,,' bppehonghienctfula 310bang ,f, '^'^'i,!,.,"yhdp nghien cdu
>' ''"'Lf,^ 'g phdp xdc dinh gid sdn long trd \ •"' 'k (,j " n ctfu nay, cd mtfc gid san long tra \" ••-'<[ ,t' Id la: tl, t2, t3, t4, t5, tg Ttf kd't qua tra
".•, lieu tra vd sd' Itfdng mau tra ldi la ' u tra ldi "Co " trdn tdng sd' mSu tra Idi P4, P5, Pg dtfdc the hidn qua Bang ^'1 Phtfdng phap xac djnh gia -N sdn long tra frung binh IL,./'
•Si
" ' , • ; / ' * (
>.-;^4
• I't:' ' ' • ' • ! > /
' ''"-tlA 'itL
''-So mau t i i Idi (n)
n "' "3 I
n, M
"^ a
"6
So mSu tra ldi •C6-{Y) ^ Y ,
Til$trildi (Pi)
Pi ^ P
' " • ' ' • ^
^fU2.2 PhUffngphd, _ ''-'''^'Hdnh kinh te'tumm
"^'ff jid sdn long tra ' 'iiuiag gdp mdt khoan ^ dng cua tinh Phu ,uyen nhdn khde £ ^•MySng san Idng tra ciia du k '''!.:i';'-iudc vdo nhffng nhan td a •'.' id, de dinh Itfdng anh hi/dng cua Al/ kinh te' - xa hpi dd'i vdi viec du k
gid Id CO sdn long tra hay khdng, mdt md hinh hdi quy logistic dd dtfdc thie't lap ma bie'n phu thudc cd gid tri bdng (ne'u du khach sdn long tra) vd bang (cho td't ca nhffng du khach khde)
Md hinh Binary Logistic cho cac Pi dtfdc xac dmh nhif sau
, ^ gf„ + ^,g + e.MAR ^ P/.GE + pjNC + „
Trong dd:
G: Ld bid'n gidi tinb, nhan gia tri ne'u la gidi tinh nff, I ne'u Id gidi tinh nam
MAR: Bie'n tinh trang hdn nhdn, bao gdm ddc than hoac da lap gia dinh,
AGE: Bie'n dp tudi, chia nhom tudi khac
INC: Bid'n thu nhdp, chia thdnh mtfc thu nhap khde
4 Kd't qua nghidn ctfu va thao luan
4.1 ifdc lUdng gid sdn long trd cua du Ichdch ndi dia
Mtfc sdn Idng tra ciia du khach ndi dia d cdc mtfc dp khac du'dc the hien qua Bang Bdng Mtfc sdn long chi tra cho Quy Bdo
ve moi trudng tqi tinti Phu Yen
Mffc san Idng cht tra
Khdng s^n Idng chi tra 10.000 ddng 20.000 ddng ^ 0 ddng
|^B.<'^"9 .i^Hbig
So Iffdng
21 38
129
41
31
29 21 l l ^ o
Phan tram 6,8
12,3
41,6
13,2 10,0
9,4 6,8
100,0
Phan tram hapl$
6,8
12,3 41,6 13,2 10,0 9,4 6,8 100,0
Phan tram cOng ddn
6,8
19,0 60,6 73,9 83,9 93,2 100,0
ldn td sd'lieu dieu Ira cda tdc gid L mtfc sdn long tra phd bie'n * (chie'm 41,6%), mtfc dp poo ddng (chie'm 13,2%), "mg (chiem 12,3%), i.OOO ddng (ehid'm Z (chie'm 6,8%) Sd cho Quy bao ve
(4)TAP CHi CONG THIftfNG
dia phtfPng cd nhtfng thdng tin quan vd cac ye'u td' anh htfdng de'n mtfc gia san Idng chi tra cung nhtf mtfc gia san long chi trd trung binh cho boat ddng bdo ve mdi trtfdng md cdn lam cd sd cho vide lap kd' hoach phat trien, dau tif tai chinh, ddc biet Id vide bao tdn va tdi tao tdi nguyen mdi trtfdng ciia tinh Phu Yen dd khai thac va phat trien mdt cdch ben vffng
2 Ctf sflf ly thuyd't
2.1 Khdi niem ve du lich, diem den du lich vd du Ichdch ndi dia
To ehtfc Du lich The' gidi (World Tourist Organization) eho rang: "Du lich bao gdm td't ca mpi hoat ddng ciia nhtfng ngtfdi du hdnh, tam trii, muc dich tham quan, kham pha vd tim hieu, trai nghiem hoac muc dich nghi ngdi, gidi tri, thtf gian Cling nbuf muc dieh hanh nghd va nhtfng muc dich khac ntfa, thdi gian lien tuc nhu'ng khdng qua mdt nam, dben ngoai moi trtfdng sdng dinh ctf; nhtfng loai trtf cdc du hanh ma cd muc dich chinh Id kid'm tien Du lich cung la mpt dang nghi ngdi nang dpng mdi tru'dng sd'ng khde ban ndi dinh cif"
Td chtfc Du lich The' gidi (2007) da difa quan niem ve diem de'n du lich (Tourism Destination): "Didm de'n du lich la viing khdng gian dia ly ma khach du lich d lai il nhd't mdt dem, bao gdm ede san phd'm du Ijch, cdc dich vu cung cd'p, cdc tai nguyen du lich thu hiit khdch, co ranh gidi hanh ehinh di quan ly vd cd stf nhan didn ve hinh anh de xac dinh kha nang canh tranh tren thi trtfdng" Theo Luat Du lich Vidt Nam (2017): "Khdch du hch ndi dia la edng dan Viet Nam, ngtfdi nu'dc ngodi ctf trii d Vidt Nam di du lich Idnh tho Vidt Nam"
2.2 DQ hdu dung - Cdsd viec xdc dinh gid san long chi trd (WTP)
Theo Haab and MeConnell (2002), md hinh ep ban cho vide phan tich nhffng cdu tra ldi nghidn ctfu ddnh gia ngau nhien xud't phdt ttf md hinh danh gid dp thoa dung ngdu nhien Ham hffu dung ciia ngifdi tra ldi thtf j du'dc xde dinh mpt cdch gian tie'p nhtf sau:
U,j = Ui(Yj,Zj,£,j) Trong dd:
Yj la yd'u to' thu nhap cua ngtfdi tra ldi thtf j Zj la ye'u td the hien eac dde diem kinh te xd -hdi ciia ngtfdi tra Idi thtf j
Eij la ye'u to khdng quan sal dtfdc ve stf tfu thich cua ngtfdi tra ldi
Dd md ta ede dac tinh cua i co hai gid tri: "0" va " 1" Gid tri " 1" Id gia tri sdn long tra vd gia In '0" la gid tri khdng sdn long tra cho vide cai thidn hang hda chd't Itfdng mdi trtfdng Khi cd stf thay ddi ttf trang thai "0" tdi trang thdi " I " , nhtfng dac tinh khac dtfdc dtfa vao de lam thay ddi tff trang thai sang trang thai dtfpc gpi la hang hda ehd't Itfdng mdi trtfdng (q) dtfdc the bidn mo hinh Vi vdy, ham hffu dung d trang thai "0" va trang thai " " dtfdc vie't nhtf sau:
Uoj = Uo (Yj, Zj, q", soj) U,j = Ui (Y^, Zj, q', Sy) Mdt cdu hoi se de nghi ngtfdi tra ldi ve mtfc san long tra eua hp cho viec cai thien chat Itfpng mdi trtfdng Hp sdn long tra d mtfc Tj va nd'u nhtf chat Itfpng mdi trtfdng thay ddi ttf trang thai "0" de'n trang thdi' 1" Nd'u eau tra ldi la "Cd ", dieu co nghTa rang bp sdn long tra va dp thoa dung ciia ho cd the cao hdn trang thai "0" hoac d trang thdi "1"
U,j(Yj-Tj,Zj,s,j)>Uoj(Yj,Zj,Eoj) Khd nang de du khach tra ldi Id "Cd" la kha nang ma ngtfdi difpc phong va'n nghi rang hp co thd se td't nhd't d trang thai " " , mac dii hp chi tra d trang thai:
TjPr(Cdj) =
Pr (Ujj (Yj - Tj, Zj, £,j) > Uoj (Yj, Z^, z^^ Bie'n ddi mdt each ddn gian, ham hilu dung dtfdc vie't dtfdi dang:
Pr(Cdj) =
Pr [V,j (Yj - Tj, Zj) + 8,j) > Voj (Yj, Z^) + EOJI
Ham hffu dung la mdt hdm tuydn tinb va CO the dtfdc vid't dtfdi dang:
V,j(Yj-Tj,Zj) = a,Zj + p,(Yj-Tj) Voj(Yj,Zj) = aoZj + PoYj V,j(Y^-Tj,Zj)-Voj(Yj,Zj) = (a,-^ao)Zj + a,(Yj-Tj)-PoYj Vdi gia thiet rdng hffu dung bien ciia thu nhap la mdt hang so' ndm giffa trang thai "0" va trang thai " I " tti bang vdi QQ (Haab va MeConnell, 2002), ndn cd the vie't lai hdm nhtf sau:
V,j-Voj = (ai-ao)Zj-pTj
Dat a = (a, - ao), dd: Vj^ - VQJ = aZj - jiT^ Kha nang de du khach tra ldi la "Co" se Id: Pr(Cdj) = Pr(aZj - pTj + ej>0) ej = Cjj - 8oj Gia san long tra trung binh eda du khdch dtfdc xdc dinh nhtf sau:
MWTP = Stj(Pj-Pj^i)
2.3 Cdc y&'u td'anh hitdng den sU sdn long tra Dd tfdc lu'dng md hinh htfu dung ngdu nhien vdi ham hffu dung tuye'n tinh, chiing ta su" dung mo hinh hdi qui Iogit vdi gid tri tra ldi la c6/khdng
(5)QUANTRI-QUANLY
dd'i vdi cdu hdi sdn long tra (bid'n phu thudc) Cdc mtfc gid san long tra va nhffng dac diem kinh te' -xd hpi cua du khach dtfdc giai thieh bdi phtfdng trinh nhtf sau:
3 Dfi' li$u va phtfdng phap nghien ctfu
3.1 Ddli^u nghien cdu
Mau dtfdc Id'y theo phtfdng phdp thudn tien cd chon loc bang edeh phdt bang cdu hdi cho nhtfng khach the nghien ctfu la du khach ndi dia dd'n tham quan tai cdc diem du lich tai tinh Phii Yen Thdi gian la'y mdu ttf ngdy 01/08/2018 de'n ngdy 30/08/2018 Sau kbi sang loc loai bd thi sd Itfpng bang cau hdi phii bppehonghienctfula 310 bang
3.2 PhUdng phdp nghien cdu
3.2 J Phuong phdp xdc dinh gid sdn long trd trung binh (MWTP)
Trong nghidn ctfu nay, cd mtfc gia san long tra dtfpc thid't lap la: t^, t^, t^, t^, t^, tg Ttf kd't qua tra ldi cua mdu dieu tra vd so' Itfdng mau tra ldi la "Cd", tildmau traldi "Cd" trdn tdng so'mdu trd ldi id: P], P,, P3, P4, P5, Pg dtfPc thd hidn qua Bang I,
Bdng PhtfOng phap xac djnh gia sdn long trd trung binh
Mile san long tra (t^
t,
t2 t3 I4
k
ts Sdmaij tra ldi (n)
Hi 12
"3 0,
"s "e
Sdmaijtraldi •C6-(Y)
Y, Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5 Ys
Til$traldi
P, P2 P3 P4 P5 PB
Ngudn: Phuang phdp cua Kaplan-Meier-Turnbull, 1976 3.2.2 Phuong phdp hdu dung ngdu nhien vd md hinh kinh te luctng
Gid sdn Idng tra eiia du khach ndi dia ttf viec ddng gdp mdt khoan phu phi eho Quy bao ve mdi trtfdng cua tinh Phii Yen xua't phat ttf nhffng nguyen nhdn khac Didu cd nghia Id khd ndng sdn long tra cua du khdch se la mdt ham phu thupc vdo nhffng nhdn to' dnh htfdng de'n nd Do do, de dinh Itfdng anh htfdng ciia mpt so' bid'n so' kinh te - xa hdi dd'i vdi vide du khdch difPc ddnh
gia la cd sdn long tra bay khdng, mdt md hinh hdi quy logistic da dtfpc thie't Idp ma bid'n phu thudc cd gia tri bang (ne'u du khdch sdn long trd) va bang (cho ta't ca nhtfng du khach khac)
Md hinh Binary Logistic eho cae Pi dtfpc xac dinh nhtf sau:
i ~ \+ ^p^ + e^G-ip/IAK + p^AGEi^ l)JNC + a Trong do:
G: La bid'n gidi tinh, nhdn gia tri nd'u la gidi tinh nff, I ne'u la gidi tinh nam
MAR: Bie'n tinh trang hdn nhan, bao gdm dpc than hoac dd Idp gia dinh
AGE: Bid'n dd tuoi, chia nhdm tudi khde
INC: Bie'n thu nhdp, chia thdnh mtfc thu nhap khac
4 Ke't qua nghien ctfu va thao luan
4.1 Vdc Iddng gid sdn long trd cua du khdch noi dia
Mtfc san long tra ciia du khach ndi dia d cae mtfc dp khde dtfpc the hien qua Bang Bdng MCfc dp sdn long chi trd cho Quy Bdo
ve moi trtfdng tqi tTnh Phu Yen
Mile san Idng chi tra
Khdng san Idng chi tra 10 000 ddng 20.000 ddng 30.000 ddng 40.000 ddng 50.000 ddng 60.000 ddng
Tdng
Scf ludng
21 38 129 41
31
29 21
310
Phan tram
6,8
12,3 41,6 13,2 10,0 9,4 6,8 100,0
Phan tram hdpl$
6,8
12,3 41,6 13,2 10,0 9,4 6,8 100,0
Phan tram c$ng don
6,8
19,0 60,6 73,9 83,9 93,2 100,0
(6)TAP GHi CONG THKdNG
Mtfc sdn long tra eua du khach ndi dia cho quy mdi trtfdng eua tinh Phii Yen dtfpc tinh toan theo phtfPng phap Turnbull (Bang 3)
Bdng yJ&c li/dng gia sdn long trd bdng phtfdng phdp Turnbull
Mi3c gia san long tra (Ij)
10.000 dong 20.000 dong 30.000 dong 40.000 dong 50.000 dong 60.000 dong
Sodu khach phan hoi
(n)
240 240 240 240 240 240
SfilUdngdu khach dong y
san long tia (Y) 31
94
41 31 28
15
Tl 1$ tra lai "Co"san long tra(P|)
(Y/n)
12.92% 39,17% 17,08% 12,92% 11,67% 6,26%
Ngudn Tinh loan tie sdlieu dieu tra ciia tdc gid Mtfc san long tra trung binh ciia du khdch: MWTP = Stj (Pj - Pj+i) - 10.000 ddng/ngifdi/ ngdy ddm
4.2 Phdn tich cdc yeu tddnh hUdng den gid sdn long trd (WTP) cua du khdch noi dia
Md hinb hdi quy binary logistis dtfdc xdc dinh nhtf sau:
l^JPfWTP) = l] [P(WTP) = 01
= Po -^ P|G -I- P2MAR -I- P3AGE + P4INC Gia thuyet nghien ctfu:
H„:p„Pj,P3,P4 = G _ H1:P|,P2,P3,P4#0 Kd't qua kidm dinh nhtf sau:
Bdng Omnibus Tests of Model Coefficients
Stepi Step Block Model
Chi-squara
51,950 51,950 51,950
df 4
Sig
0,000 0,000 0,000
Ngudn: Tinh todn tit sd lieu diiu tra ciia tdc gid Dtfa vao kd't qud kiem dinh mtfc dp phii hpp cua md hinh, ta ed Sig, < 0,05 ndn bdc bd gia thuyd't HOCE, cha'p nhan gia thuyd't HI Nhtf vdy, md hinh hdi quy tong qudt cho tha'y md'i quan he ttfPng quan giffa mtfc dp sdn Idng chi tra va cdc bie'n ddc lap md hinh vdi tin cay trdn 99%
Step
1
Bang Model Summary -2 Log likelihood
234,784^
Cox & Sneii R Square
0,154
Nagelkerke R Square
0,256 a Estimation terminated at iteration number because parameter estimates changed by less than ,001
Ngm : Tinh todn tit sd lieu diiu tra c 'J tdc gid He sd' mtfc dp giai thich eiia md hinh: R^ Nagelkerke = 0,256 Dieu cd ngbia la 25,6% sif thay ddi cua Mtfc dp san long chi tra dtfpc giai thich bdi Gidi tinb, Trinh trang bdn nhan Dp mdi va Thu nhap ciia du khdch, edn lai la cdc ye'u td'khde
Bdng Classification Tobleo
Obsen/ed
Stepi
MLTC s^n long chi tra
0 Overall Percentage
Predicted MQc san long
chi tra 0
10 10
1
44 246 82,6
Percentage Correct
18,5 96,1
a The cut value is ,500
Nguon • Tinh todn tic so lieu diiu tra cua tdc gia Trong 54 du khdch tra ldi "Khdng sdn Idng chi tra ", md hinb dtf bdo chinh xdc 10 trtfdng hop Vdy tile diing la 18,5%
Trong 256 du khach tra ldi "Sdn long chi tra", md hinb dif bao chinh xdc la 246 trifdng hdp Vay ti le diing Id 96,1%
Ttf dd, ta thd'y ti Id dtf bao dung cua todn bd mo hinh ttfdng dd'i cao, eu the la 82,6% (Bang 7)
Loai bd bie'n Gidi tinh vd Thu nhdp vi gid tri Sig > 0,05
Ttf cac hd so' hdi quy ed y ngbia dtfpc xac dinh, phtfdng trinh hdi quy cd dang nhtf sau'
]^^\p(WTP)=n [P(WTP) = 0\
= -4,811 - 3,00 IMAR + 0,623AGE Kdt qua hdi quy cho thd'y bid'n "tinb trang hdn nhdn" ciia du khach ndi dia cd dd'u tae ddng am, dieu ndy cd nghTa la xac sud't dd nhffng ngtfdi da cd gia dinh sdn Idng cbi tra cho quy mdi trtfdng ciia Phii Yen la tha'p hPn so vdi nhffng ngifdi chtfa cd gia dinh Bie'n "tudi eua du khach" cd da'u tdc
(7)QUANTRI-qUANlV
Bang Variables in the Equation
Step l a G MAR
AGE
INC Constant
B -0,394 -3,001 0,623 -0,045 -4,811
S.E 0,410 0,493 0,262 0,224 0,719
Wald
0,926 37,044 5,662 0,040 44,757
df Sig
0,336 0,000 0,017 0,842 0,000
Exp(B)
0,674 0,050 1,864 0,956 122,794 a Variable(s) entered on step 1: G, MAR, AGE, INC
Ngudn Tinh todn id sdlieu dieu tra cua tdc gid ddng dtfdng, dieu am cbi rang nd'u cac yd'u
to' khac khdng doi, viec tang them mpt dPn vi bid'n tudi se lam tdng xde suat sfn Idng tra ciia du khdch
Mtfc san long tra ciia du khdch dtfpc coi nhtf la mdt stf dmh gid gid tri canh quan cua Phii Yen theo y kien ca nhdn cua du khach Vdi Itfdng du khdch ndi dia dd'n tham Phii Yen nam 2017 Id 1.368.500 Itfpt du khach vdi tdng doanh thu dat 1.245 ty ddng Sd' ngdy Itfu tni ciia du khach ndi dia la 1.049.950 ngay, trung binh mdt du khach ndi dia Itfu tni la 0,767 ngdy Ne'u ti le san long tra ciia du khdeb ndi dia cho quy mdi tru'dng cua Phii Ydn thdng qua phi phu thu tidn thue phdng cho ngdy dem nghi la 82,6% thi so' tien ma du khdch san long tra eho quy bao vd mdi tru'dng tinb Phu Yen chi tinh rieng nam 2017 se la: 1.368.500 Itfdt du khdch X 0,767 ngdy x 82,6% x 10.000 ddng/du khdch/ngdy dem = 8.670.022.270 ddng Ddy Id mdt ngudn Itfc tai chinh khd ldn ma du khdch ndi dia san long chi tra cho quy bao ve mdi trtfdng ciia tinh Phii Ydn
5 Ke't luan va khuye'n nghi
Thd nhdt, hdu bd't du khach ndi dia deu sdn long chi tra mdt khoan tien ddng gdp vdo quy bao vd mdi trtfdng tinh Phu Yen (chidm 93,2%) So tien
ma du khdeb san Idng chi tra la 10.000 ddng/ngtfdi/ngay dem Tong so'tien ma du khdeb noi dia sdn long chi tra cho Quy bao vd mdi trtfdng tinb ndm 2017 la 8.670.022.270 ddng Do do, cd the khuye'n nghi vdi Sd van hda, Thd thao vd Du lich tinh Phu Ydn nen stf dung chinh sdch thu phi tinh vdo khoan tidn phdng khach san hoac ve vao ctfa tai cdc diem du lich dd'i vdi du khdch tham gia du lich tai Phii Ydn
Thd hai, theo ke't qua dieu tra, du khdch cdng ldn tudi thi mtfc sdn long tra cho quy bao ve mdi trtfdng tai tinh Phii Yen cang cao De thu hut dtfdc nhu'ng du khach cd dp tudi Idn hPn de'n vdi tinh Phd Yen can phai cd chinh sach dau ttf cdc san pham du lich phii hpp Phii Ydn nen dau ttf xdy dtfng nhieu hdn ntfa cac resort nghi dtfdng, cdc tour du lich lang qud, bay du lieh tdm linh nhu" ehiia chien, den dai, hoac nhtfng ndi tdt cho stfc khde nhtf sud'i khoang ndng la nhtfng dia didm hpp Ii nhd't cho nhtfng dd'i ttfpng
Ngoai ra, Phu Ydn can da dang hda cdc san pham du hch de phuc vu cho nhieu dd'i tupng ed mtfc thu nhdp khde Can ttfng btfdc nang cao ehd't Itfdng dieh vu va tranh vide ehi phu thudc vdo mdi Ipi the' tdi nguyen Dieu ndy se dem lai nhieu ldi ich cho dia phifpng •
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
1 Driml, S.M (1999), Bringing Ecological Economics out of the Wilderness, Ecological Economics, 23, page 145-153 2 DuYaping (2003), The vaulue of Improved water quality for Recealion in East Lake, Wuhan, China: An application of Contingent Value and Travel Cost Methods, Economy & Environment Programfor Soulheal Asia, reseach reports 2004 3 Haab, T.C and K.E MeConnell (2002), Valuing Environmental and Natural Resources - The Econometrics of Non-market Valuation, Cheltenham and Northampton: Edward Elgar
(8)TAP CHi CONG THIfdNG
5 John A Dixon Louis Fallon Scura, Richard A Carpenter and Paul B Sherman (1994), Economic analysis of Environmental Impact, Earlhscan Publications Ltd chap 5: page 63-83
6 Ngo Tly Dieu An <& Nguyin Thi Oanh Kieu (2014), Gido trinh tdng quan du lich Nxb TrUdng Cao dang ThUdng mai Da Ndng
7 Nguyin Vdn Dinh vd Tran Thi Minh Hda (2006), Gido trinh Kinh te'du Hch, Nxb Lao dong - Xd hdi, Hd Ndi H Pham Hong Manh (2010), Tai tra cho hoat dong bdo ve mdi trUdng ciia Vinh Nha Trang: Vai tro cda khdch du lich, Tiip chi Khoa hoc - Cong nghe thuy sdn, 1/2010, page 79-87
9 Pham Khdnh Nam vd Tran Vd Hung Sdn (2001), Analysis of the Recreational Value of Coral - surrounded Hon Mun Islands in Vietnam, Economy <& Environment Program for Soulheal Asia (EEPSEA)
10 Turnbull, B.( 1976) The empirical distributionfiincHon with arbitrarily grouped, censored and truncated data, Joural of the Royal Statistical Sociaty, 38B, page 290 - 295
Ngay nhanbai: 19/4/2019
Ngay phan bi?n danh gja va suTa chffa: 29/4/2019 Ngay cha'p nhan dang bai: 9/5/2019 Thdng tin tdc gid:
ThS PHAM THI MQNG HANG Trtftfng Daii hpc Cdng nghe Dong Nai
THE WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION ACTIVITIES AT TOURIST DESTINATIONS
OF PHU YEN PROVINCE: THE ROLE OF DOMESTIC TOURISTS
• Master PHAM THI MONG HANG Dong Nai University of Technology ABSTRACT:
This study determines factors affecting the probability of the willingness to pay and the mean willingness to pay by domestic tounsts to Phu Yen province's environmental protection fund Based on results, the study proposes policy recommendation for the Department of Culture, Sports and Tourism of Phu Yen province to finance the provincial environmental protection activities This study's approach mediods vjere the random untility function by Haab vd MeConnell (2002), the estimation of mean willingness to pay (MWTP) by Kaplan-Meier-Tumbull (1976) and the logits model with two values (Yes and No) in order to analyze factors affecting the probability of the willingness to pay (WTP) of domestic visitors for the Phu Yen province's environment protection acuvities at provincial tourist attractions The study's results show that visitors are willing to contribute 10,000 VND/visitor/night to Phu Yen province's environment protection fund, according to the Kaplan-Meier-TumbuU's estunation mediod The willingness to pay of domestic tourists is affected by some factors including the marital status and the age Total amount of money that domestic visitors would contribute to Phu Yen province's environment protection fund in 2017 is 8.670.022.270 VND
Keywords: Willingness, domestic tourists, environmental protection, pay, Phu Yen province