Water conflicts related to management of multi purpose reservoirs in vu gia thu bon river basin

VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY NGUYEN THI NHAT ANH WATER CONFLICTS RELATED TO MANAGEMENT OF MULTIPURPOSE RESERVOIRS IN VU GIA THU BON RIVER BASIN MASTER'S THESIS Hanoi, June 2019 VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI VIETNAM JAPAN UNIVERSITY NGUYEN THI NHAT ANH WATER CONFLICTS RELATED TO MANAGEMENT OF MULTIPURPOSE RESERVOIRS IN VU GIA THU BON RIVER BASIN RESEARCH SUPERVISOR: Prof SHIGETO NAKA Assoc Prof MASAKAZU FUKUZUMI Dr NGUYEN NGOC HUY Hanoi, June 2019 CONT Acknowledgments Abstract List of Abbreviation List of Tables List of Figures Introduction 1.1 General topic and research background 1.2 Research objectives 1.3 Research gap and research contribution 1.4 Research scope 1.5 Research methods and framework Conceptual framework and Literature review 2.1 Conceptual framework of Water conflic 2.1.1 Water co 2.1.2 Water co 2.1.3 Reservo 2.2 Research on Water conflicts 2.2.1 Research on Water conflicts in Vietnamese river basin 2.2.2 Research on water allocation (to find payoff function) 2.3 Research on Vu Gia – Thu Bon River B 2.3.1 Research on VGTB RB related to social or environmental aspects 2.3.2 Research on VGTB RB about main water users in VGTB RB Methodology 3.1 Theoretical approach 3.1.1 Game th 3.1.2 Game theoretical approach can solve conflict 3.2 Game theory model 3.2.1 Game T 3.2.2 Profit fu Current situation of water conflict 4.1 Context of Vu Gia – Thu Bon River Ba i 4.1.1 Natural conditio 4.1.2 Social-economic 4.2 Water resources (supply side) 4.3 Water consumption (demand side) 4.3.1 Hydropower 4.3.2 Irrigation 4.3.3 Urban water sup 4.4 Water balance 4.5 Water resource management in VGTB RB 4.5.1 Water resource management at basin level in Vietnam 4.5.2 Water resource management in VGTB RB 4.5.3 Management of reservoir system in VGTB RB 4.5.4 Procedure for operation of inter-reservoir system in VGTB RB 4.6 Water conflict related to multi-purpose reservo Discussion and Policy Recommendation 5.1 Finding 5.1.1 Game theoretica 5.1.2 Analysis of practical model 5.1.3 Analysis of modified model 5.2 Discussion 5.3 Policy recommendation 5.4 Limitation and Future research Conclusion Reference Appendix A Data A1 Irrigated water level for paddy A2 Planted area and yield of paddy A3 Scenarios on sharing water from H (based on Procedure 1537) Appendix B Specific examples for Practical model B1 Example B2 Example B3 Example ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Conducting the research is a journey to discover yourself and to develop critical thinking On that journey, supervisors and companions are indispensable Firstly, I am particularly grateful for the assistance given by my supervisors for his valuable and constructive suggestions during the planning and development of this research work Assistance provided by Naka Shigeto Sensei, which gave me great inspiration and led me to the academic world, was greatly appreciated The knowledge I learned from Fukuzumi Masakazu Sensei in game theory gave me a great and attractive economic tool to build my original model Lastly, with his rich practical experience, Nguyen Ngoc Huy Sensei helped me understand a great deal more about the reality of the water sector in Vietnam In this journey, I was also fortunate to be instructed by lecturers at Vietnam Japan University and to be able to discuss with other researchers from VACI 2019 I would like to offer my special thanks to Mr Yoshifumi Hino in the MBA program, Mr Koshi Yoshida and Mr Makoto Tamura in the MCCD program helped me gain a lot of knowledge about water, hydropower and game theory In addition, I am grateful for the assistance given by Mr Dao Trong Tu for helping me to understand the water resource management Moreover, I would like to thank the MPP program and VJU for creating what I think is the most favorable academic environment Here, I had opportunities to discuss with my colleagues, who were always willing to listen to even the vaguest ideas of mine Finally, I would like to express my sincere thanks to my lovely family and my enthusiastic friends, without whose endless motivations and support this work would have been impossible iii ABSTRACT Water conflict is becoming an urgent problem over the world because of rapid economic development leading to the rapid increase of water demand, and global climate change to the decrease of water availability in season dry This study is about water conflict occurring in Vu Gia - Thu Bon river basin among three main water users: hydropower reservoirs in upstream as well as an irrigation system and urban water supply in downstream In order to understand deeply their interactions, this study builds a game theoretical model to describe the current conflict and their benefits in exploiting water From the general model, the practical model is calculated by secondary data and then is modified with water right weight and average values The initial results are that although the profitability for the whole agricultural sector is the largest, the average value is negligible In contrast, the profitability of hydropower and water supply companies is lower but more concentrated In the perspectives of policymakers, it is essential to analyse the movement of each player, consider the total payoff values and use control variables as “refund” and “punishment” to adjust some water user’s behaviors iv LIST OF ABBREVIATION Meaning Abbreviation HPP Hydropower Plant WTP Water Plant VGTB Vu Gia – Thu Bon RB River basin RBO River basin organization DAWACO Da Nang Water Supply Company NE Nash equilibrium SPNE Subgame perfect Nash equilibrium MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development MOIT Ministry of Industry and Trade v LIST OF TABLES Table 3.1: Similarities of water conflict and game theory 20 Table 4.1: Water flow of dry season and flood season in VGTB RB 27 Table 4.2: Irrigation system of VGTB RB 31 Table 4.3: Capacity of main water plants of DAWACO 33 Table 4.4: Water supply-demand gap index of VGTB RB 34 Table 4.5: Water exploitation index of VGTB RB 34 Table 4.6: River basin organisations in VGTB RB 37 Table 4.7: Main documents for procedure for operation of inter-reservoir system in VGTB 39 Table 4.8: Changes in water resources of Vu Gia River 43 Table 5.1: Matrix of Sub-game in general model 44 Table 5.2: Matrix of Sub-game in general model 45 Table 5.3: Outcomes of VGTB game’s example model 48 Table 5.4: The basis to calculate M-value of H (hydropower plants) 51 Table 5.5: Profit of hydropower plants in VGTB game’s practical model 51 Table 5.6: The basis to calculate M-value of I (irrigation system) 53 Table 5.7: Profit of Irrigation in VGTB game’s practical model 53 Table 5.8: M-value of H, I and C 54 Table 5.9: Guaranteed value for water demand of downstream 55 Table 5.10: Total sharing water from three hydropower reservoirs in three scenarios 56 Table 5.11: Outcomes of VGTB game’s practical model 58 Table 5.12: Outcomes of VGTB game’s practical model (example) 58 vi Table 5.13: M-value of three players with water right weight (γ) based on average profit 62 Table 5.14: Outcomes of VGTB game’s modified model 64 Table 5.15: Outcomes of VGTB game’s modified model (example) 64 Table 5.16: Social payoff in general model, practical model and modified model ( 65 vii ) LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Research framework based on the demand side and supply side .5 Figure 2.1: Four dimensions of resources scarcity .7 Figure 3.1: Game tree with three players 21 Figure 5.1: Irrigation planning map of Quang Nam province 46 Figure 5.2: Game tree with dominant strategies and value of payoffs of general model 47 Figure 5.3: Game tree with dominant strategies and value of payoffs of practical model 57 Figure 5.4: Payoffs of C - Urban water supply in VGTB game’s practical model 59 Figure 5.5: Payoffs of I - Irrigation in VGTB game’s practical model .60 Figure 5.6: Payoffs of H - Hydropower in VGTB game’s practical model 60 Figure 5.7: Game tree with dominant strategies and value of payoffs of modified model 63 Figure 5.8: Total payoffs of three players in VGTB game’s practical model 66 Figure 5.9: Total payoffs of three players in VGTB game’s modified model .66 viii Madani, K (2010) Game theory and water resources Journal of Hydrology, 381(3– 4), 225–238 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.11.045 Ministry of Finance (2013) Circular 41/2013/TT-BTC guiding Decree 67/2012/NDCP amending Decree 143/2003/ND-CP guiding the Ordinance on Exploitation and Protection of Irrigation Works Ministry of Industry (2003) Decision No 875/QD-KHDT in 2003 approving the hydropower ladder planning of Vu Gia - Thu Bon river system MONRE (2012) Decision No 341/QD-BTNMT in 2012 on List of intra-provincial river basins My, P T D., & Hanh, N Q (2018) Hydropower impacts: From Environmental, Social and Gender Perspectives Thuan Hoa Publishing House Retrieved from https://issuu.com/csrd7/docs/csrd_2018_hydropower_impacts_vietna National Assembly (1998) Law No 08/1998/QH10 on on water resources National Assembly (2002) Resolution No 02/2002/QH11 to establish the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment National Assembly (2012) Law No 17/2012/QH13 on water resources Nepal, S., Flügel, W.-A., & Shrestha, A B (2014) Upstream-downstream linkages of hydrological processes in the Himalayan region Ecological Processes, 3(19), 1–16 Retrieved from https://ecologicalprocesses.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s13717-0140019-4 Nga, N T T (2017) Research to set up the hydrological and economic model for optimal water allocation in the Ba river basin Thuy loi university Nguyen-Tien, V., Elliott, R J R., & Strobl, E A (2018) Hydropower generation, flood control and dam cascades: A national assessment for Vietnam Journal of Hydrology, 560, 109–126 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.02.063 OECD, & IEA (2012) Technology Roadmap Hydropower https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2012.03.019 PanNature (2011) Organisation of river basin management in Vietnam - 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Thu Bon river basin Source: (Viện Quy hoạch Thủy Lợi, 2017) Note: WS crop: Winter-spring crop; SA crop: Summer-autumn crop WS crop SA crop WS crop SA crop WS crop SA crop A2 Planted area and yield of paddy Winter-spring Planted crop paddy (ha) Yield o (ton) Summer- Planted autumn crop paddy (ha) Yield o (ton) Winter-spring Planted crop paddy (ha) Yield o (ton) Summer- Planted autumn crop paddy (ha) Yield (ton) Source: QSO 2017 o A3 Scenarios on sharing water from H (based on Procedure 1537) Scenario 1: HAN < 2.67m Month Dry season Flow (m /s) Dak Mi Hours (h) Flow (m /s) A Vuong Hours (h) Flow (m /s) Song Bung Hours (h) WS crop (10 m ) SA crop (10 m ) Source: summary from Procedure 1537 The period of increased water use: Article 16.1a (Dak Mi 4), Article 16.2a (A Vuong), Article 16.3a (Song Bung 4) The period of normal water use: Article 17.1a (Dak Mi 4), Article 17.2a (A Vuong), Article 17.3a (Song Bung 4) Scenario 2: 2.67m < HAN < 2.8m Month Dry season Flow (m /s) Dak Mi Hours (h) Flow (m /s) A Vuong Hours (h) Flow (m /s) Song Bung Hours (h) WS crop (10 m ) SA crop (10 m ) Source: Summary from Procedure 1537 The period of increased water use: Article 16.1a (Dak Mi 4), Article 16.2b (A Vuong), Article 16.3b (Song Bung 4) The period of normal water use: Article 17.1a (Dak Mi 4), Article 17.2b (A Vuong), Article 17.3b (Song Bung 4) Scenario 3: HAN > 2.8m Month Dry season Dak Mi (only) WS crop (10 m ) SA crop (10 m ) Flow (m /s) Hours (h) Source: summary from Procedure 1537 The period of increased water use: Article 16.1a (Dak Mi 4), Article 16.2c (A Vuong), Article 16.3c (Song Bung 4) The period of normal water use: Article 17.1a (Dak Mi 4), Article 17.2c (A Vuong), Article 17.3c (Song Bung 4)  In case the water level at Ai Nghia hydrological station is greater than 2.8 m, based on the current water level of the reservoir and the flow's forecast in average 10-day to decide the proper operation of the reservoir This article is applicable to A Vuong and Song Bung reservoirs Note Flood season, from September to December 15 The period of increased water use in dry season, from May 11 to June 10 The period of normal water use in dry season, for the rest of the year APPENDIX B SPECIFIC EXAMPLES FOR PRACTICAL MODEL B1 Example Assumptions Value of variables Value Value of outcome table O1 O2 173 86.5 O3 O4 86.5 O5 O6 346 259.5 O7 O8 259.5 173 B2 Example Assumptions Value of variables Value Value of outcome table O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 O6 O7 O8 138.4 69.2 69.2 346 240.47 240.47 134.94 B3 Example Assumptions Value of variables Value Value of outcome table O1 O2 O3 O4 O5 O6 O7 O8 211.06 105.53 105.53 346 276.8 276.8 207.6 ... suggesting policy recommendations Therefore, the topic of this study is ? ?Water conflicts related to management of multipurpose reservoirs in Vu Gia - Thu Bon River Basin? ?? 1.2 Research objectives Water. .. water into the Thu Bon, and Vinh Dien River delivers part of the water come back to the Vu Gia In upstream, Dak Mi HPP diverts a lot of water from Dak Mi River in Vu Gia system to Ngon Thu Bon River. .. Planning Management Board of 11 VGTB RB Executive Board of Integrating Water 12 Resources Projects in Vu Gia RB The Coordination Board for Integrated Management of the Vu Gia – Thu Bon River Basin