Ứng dụng phương pháp thống kê trong dự báo dân số

TRUONG D~ HQC KINH T~ TP H6 CHI MINH NGUYEN SUM UNGDUNGPHUdNGPHAPTH6NGiffi TRONG DU BAO DAN SO TAl MOT DIA PmfdNG / (THANH PHO HUE: NOI vA NGOAI THANH) Chuyen nganh : THONG KE Ma s6 : 5-02-10 Lu4N AN PH6 TI~N si KHOA HQC KINH T~ Ngu6i hudng dlin k.hoa hc: Thimh ph6 GS.PTS Tntdng Van Khang D1;ti Hc Kinh T~ TP Hb Chi Minh H6 Chi Minh, nam 1994 _:, MQC LQC Trang ' LO'I , ~' NOI ? I "" ChU'dng 1: CAC CHI N A 1.1 ~ A' A' 01 BAU TIEU ') ') ") CO' B.AN "- NHAN" A' 07 ~\.I DAN SO VA ccJ CAU TIIEO TUOI VA GIC1I: 1.2.1 Thap tu6i: 1.2.2 Dan sb I 08 09 trung N A ' s b1nh A • CAC CHI TIEU BIEN BQNG A TIJ 09 ~ A 10 NHIEN DAN SO · '-11 · Cac chl t i ~u v~' muc a¢ chit 1.3.1.1 TY suit 1.3.1.2 TY suit ch6t 1.3.1.3 TY suit ch6t tre em du&i tu6i(O tu6i): ch6t 1.3.1.4 So s8nh cltc 1.3.2 HOC ~ A SO VAN BE ccJ BAN CUA NHAN KHAU HQC: A,, l'to."J K:H:A.U chung 11 theo dQ tu6i muc dQ 12 12 ch6t v~ tieu ch1 m mftc 13 c1Q sinh de 16 1.3.2.1 M¢t vai khRi ni~m th6ng th~ v~ sinh de: 16 1.3.2.2 eRe chi ti~u 17 H~ th~ V~ mUC th6ng dQ sinh de: s6 19 Tjr suit tlmg tl/ nhien: 21 1.3.4 Cac chi tieu v~ muc dQ k6t hon 21 1.3.2.3 1.3.3 1.3.5 ti~u Cac chl ' ' v~ N A c1Q muc ly A • CAC CHI TIEU BIEN BQNG ccJ HQC 1.4.1 1.4.1.1 Chi ti~u bi8n dQng od hQc chung: ~ t! ,., ,._1 han: 22 22 23 SUdt chuyen den: 23 1.4.1.2 Ty suit chuy~n di: 23 1.4.1.3 Ty suit tang (giam) 1y cd hoc: 23 • , , m.:t Chlidng CAC · PHlUKi PHAP ? I , 1\ BAO DAN "' it BANG· CHEf & 2.1 CHINH LY SO 2 Pm.Jo'NG PHAP DTJ BAO DAN SO BANG PHI1o'NG PHAP NGOP,.I SUY DO KHAI SAI TUOI LI~U , 26 v' N A , 2.3 \ ? "' v PHUdNG PHAP D0 BAO D0A VAO TY SUAT GIA TANG , , I 1\, 1\ 2.4 PHDdNG PHAP D0 BAO DAN , " "' , ? " HQC ? \ ? CUA 27 27 , , SO D0A VAO BANG CHET ? N Y NGHIA KHOA 24 1\fJ 1\ 1\1 ' SO 29 1'/ BANG CHET: 29 2.4.2 LDai DAN SO 29 ? ? ? "' 2.4.3 CAC CHI TIEU CO BAN CUA BANG CHET: 33 xac suit ch~t qx 33 2.4.3.2 xac suit s6ng Px 35 lx 35 Lx 37 2.4.3.1 2.4.3.3 S6 s6ng a~n tu6i 2.4.3.4 , , ' s6 s6ng tuoi 2.4.3.5 Tu6i thQ binh quan ? 2.4.4 BANG " CHET \ VA X "' THE x :ex 1\ ~ 38 TH0C 39 , , , ' , CAC PHtt1NG PHAP J4P BANG CHEl' 42 c8c nhB dim s6 PhBp : 42 nhB dim s6 IK)c Bftc (Bek) 43 s1 Li8n sfJ N&-vd-xen-cki & Phlldng phBp Iap bAng chit Phlldng phBp I~ bAng chit caa 2.5.3 Phlldng phap Iap b/mg chit caa Vi~n CUB Pa-ep-ski 47 2.5.4 Phubng phap Iap bang chit cua Bu-nha-kob-xki 51 2.5.5 Bang chit rut gQn 55 /'1 /II A /'1 A"' ChU'dng 3: UNG DQNG TIR}C TE:DTJ BAO DAN SO TP HUE ( NQI '\ #d ~ I W A TIM HIEU PHAT TRIEN DAN SO 1.1 phl)Jll /'1 59 , THANH PHO (NQi ThBnh) HUE 59 dtu nghifm vi" \ '\ & NGO~I THANH) 3.1.2 Phlfr:lng 3.1.3 Kit qua 59 3.1.4 K.it lr$1: 63 1tl ' " phBp nghien ,.') "' N "' 59 : cftu TIM HIEU PHAT TRIEN DAN SO T.~I MQT "' If' " 9dN Vl DAN ClJ MAU VUNG \ THANH • phlpn vi & Phuttng 3.2.2 Kit qua 3.2.3 Ja(t nghi en phBp cftu NGO~I TP : 80 lu&n : 84 /'1 A I 3 DlJ bao d&n nge~i 80 80 , /II '\ I DTJ BAO DAN SO TIIANH PHO HUE TRONG TH '~- \! ~ (! B ~ r"£J(; {_:nr:::~.r '! _.,:_,; J,, ;:_~Ht_Ti~Ei~ T\.} ~1-f J, _ - ~-:.::·- :?"! - ,._ _&" ~ 31 nJ··········-············-·····-·-········-··············································································· ························ ·················:.:,;,;,:.:f{ .~ , i 60 t 1~ > ( 37240 10584 (36,6%) (32,1%) (39,8% ) ( 'rY 1~ ) 80190 52,5% ) 9916 ( 55,7% ) 50567 ( 35,4%) (37,2% ) 6483 1591 8074 5,9%) ( 6,0% ) (5,9% ) 1~) CQng ( 39983 > 55 t 'rY ( 65509 - 15 t < ( 54,2% ) 47156 (32,7%) 13357 3391 16748 ( 11,5% ) (12, 1% ) ( 11,6% ) 109367 116106 (100% ) (100 % ) 26615 (100 % ) 27988 135982 144094 (100 %) ( 100 % ) ( 100% ) - 124 I 1\? I A \ 1\? I \ ? 1\ Bang 45 : DT,:f BAO UJA TUO I LAO BQNG VA U1A TUOI TUY THUQC ( TRE EM \ & \ \ , , , ? N v 1'1 NmJ(ji GIA ) THANH PHO HUE NAM 1999 18 \ P NQI THANH U1A TUOI N \ XA NGOP,.I THANH N N NAM (ngu'di) (1) NTJ (ngu'di) (2) \ NAM (ngu'di) NTJ (ngl.tdi) (4) (3) , , THANH PHO HUE N NAM (ngl.l'c)i) (5) 16-60 t 70788 16465 87253 (ty 1~) (57,8 %) ( 54,4 %) (57,2 %) NTJ ( ngl.l'c) i ) (6) 16-55 t 72267 16397 88664 (ty 1~) (56,4 %) (52,3 %) (55,6 %) 0-15 t < T:Y 1~) 44113 41017 (36,0 %) (32,0 %) > 60 t 7496 < T:Y 1~) ( 6,1 %) 12164 (40~2 %) 11356 56277 52373 (36,3 %) (36,8 %) (32,8 %) 1644 9140 ( 5,4 % ) ( 6,0 %) > 55 t 14924 3580 18504