tiểu luận kinh tế lượng ANALYSIS OF THE DETERMINANTS INFLUENCING THE STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY SCORES OF ECONOMICS STUDENTS

FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS - ECONOMETRICS REPORT - ANALYSIS OF THE DETERMINANTS INFLUENCING THE STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY SCORES OF ECONOMICS STUDENTS Class: Econometrics - KTEE218.1 Lecturer: Dr Nguyen Thuy Quynh Group 10 : Tô Vũ Ý Nhi - 1814450061 Triệu Ngọc Mai - 1814450053 Nguyễn Minh Đức - 1814450019 Vũ Nam Khánh - 1814450045 Vũ Minh Hồng - 1816450041 Ha Noi- 09/2019 TABLE OF CONTENT ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION I Overview of the topic (Review of economic theories and statement of research hypotheses) 1.Foundation for variables and model choosing 5 1.1Foundation of choosing variables 1.2Foundation of choosing models 2.Definitions 2.1 Statistics and Probability subject 2.2 Advanced Mathematics in college 2.3 Self-study 2.4 Interest 2.5 Attention focus 2.6 Class contribution II Model Specification 1.Literature review 6 7 8 8 2.Object 3.Constructing economics model 4.Specifying economics model III Estimated model and statistical inferences 1.Data overview 2.Estimation of econometrics model 3.Building the experimental model 4.Multicollinearity and heteroskedasticity testing 4.1 Multicollinearity Testing 4.2 Heteroscedasticity 5.Coefficients testing 5.1 P-value 5.2 Confidence Interval 5.3 t-value SUGGESTION AND RECOMMENDATION 9 9 10 12 12 14 14 15 17 18 18 19 20 CONCLUSION 23 REFERENCE 24 APPENDIX 27 ABSTRACT Statistics and Probability is a subject with a long history of development The subject has been acknowledged as one of the foundation subjects for first-year economics students around the world because of its immense applicability Therefore, our group has decided to conduct in-depth research on the determinants that influence the Statistics and Probability scores of economics students Our study consists of factors that are presumed to shape Statistics and Probability scores: Advanced Math scores, self-studying time per day, interest in the subject, classroom participation and attention to the lesson After analyzing data running from STATA, it is concluded that only attention to the lesson does not leave a strong impact on Statistics and Probability scores whereas the four remaining factors At the end of the report, some resolutions and recommendations are given to further assist in improving economics freshmen's Statistics and Probability scores INTRODUCTION There is a general consensus that leads to the difference in the performance of economics students Virtually all accredited business schools require their students to take one or more courses in both mathematics and business statistics In addition, most introductory business statistics courses require one or more math courses to provide the necessary mathematical foundation for statistics However, despite these prerequisite math courses, many students poorly in their business and economics statistics (hereafter, business statistics) course It has even been alleged that "…Business Statistics is the most hated, most unpopular course in the business program." Potential reasons cited for poor student performance include statistics anxiety, inadequate statistics instruction, inadequate math preparation before matriculation and inadequate math prerequisites prior to taking the statistics course In this study, we focus on the importance of math prerequisites for student performance in the business statistics course Specifically, we use an ordered probit model to examine the relationship between alternative math course sequences and the grades earned by students the first time they complete the business statistics course We then show how imposing a minimum grade requirement of C- for the prerequisite math course would be expected to affect student performance in business statistics Several studies have previously examined the impacts of mathematics skills and topics on student performance in business statistics To our knowledge, however, this is the first study to examine the effect of alternative prerequisite math course sequences on student performance It is also the first study to demonstrate the effect on student success in business statistics of imposing a minimum grade requirement for the prerequisite math course I Overview of the topic (Review of economic theories and statement of research hypotheses) Foundation for variables and model choosing 1.1 Foundation of choosing variables Our assumption is that the Statistical and Probability Scores are affected by the following variables: Advanced Math scores, self-studying time per day, interest in the subject, classroom participation and attention to the lesson - Advanced Math Score: Because Advanced Math includes the skills and knowledge to study Statistics and Probability, we expect that higher scores in Advanced Math with lead to higher scores in Statistical and Probability scores - Self-study hours per day on Statistics and Probability subject: Self-study is a great method that students can use to enhance their learning experience Using self-study, students can go beyond simply learning what their textbooks and instructors teach By practicing self-study, they are encouraged to explore more topics that interest them, developing stronger research skills Therefore, the more time students spend self-study to review and practice the subject, the higher their score will be - Interested in the topic of Statistics and Probability: Because of interest in the subject, students make more efforts to study or learn more about this topic Therefore, the higher the interest in Statistics and Probability, the higher the score of this course - Attention in class: It is believed that the more attention students pay for in the lesson, the higher the score will be - Class contribution: A successful lesson built on student contributions; In addition, contributing to the lesson by asking questions requires students to think logically and help them understand the lesson deeply Therefore, the more contributions a student has to make, the higher the subject score 1.2 - Foundation of choosing models Multiple regression model: is an extension of simple linear regression It is used when we want to predict the value of a variable based on the value of two or more other variables The variable we want to predict is called the dependent variable (or sometimes, the outcome, target or criterion variable) The variables we are using to predict the value of the dependent variable are called the independent variables (or sometimes, the predictor, explanatory or regressor variables) (statistics.laerd.com) Definitions 2.1 Statistics and Probability subject Statistics are the study of a wide range of areas, including analysis, interpretation, presentation and data organization When applying statistics in science, industry or social issues, it is usually starting with studying a statistical overall or a statistical model The word probability is derived from the Latin word probate and means "to prove, to verify" Put simply, probably is one of many words referring to uncertain facts or knowledge, aimed at defining "ability" These are two related but separate academic disciplines Statistical analysis often uses probability distributions, and the two topics are often studied together Learning about the probability we will work with tests, is considered to be experimental, experimental, and random quantities, real-life random processes When solving a problem we often make assumptions, then we need to see how much the assumption is true, then we have to perform the test The testing of such a hypothesis is called a statistical hypothesis test, whose test results are calculated based on actual, calculated data 2.2 Advanced Mathematics in college Advanced math is a subject with a level of advanced than the type of high school math that we have ever studied and it is intended for undergraduate students It is based on basic knowledge of general mathematics such as spatial geometry, statistical probability or quantities in mathematics and upgrades them to other tiers more difficult, so it is called advanced mathematics Advanced mathematics is a difficult subject that requires students to study hard to be able to their exercises In fact, advanced math is often used for business majors such as business administration, finance goods, accounting … 2.3 Self-study Self-studying is a learning method where students direct their own studying—outside the classroom and without direct supervision Since students are able to take control of what (and how) they are learning, selfstudy can be a very valuable way for many students to learn these methods help students learn and retain information better, helping boost comprehension, grades, and motivation Using self-study, students are able to go beyond simply learning what their class textbooks and instructors teach them By practicing self-study, they are encouraged to further explore topics they are interested in, developing stronger study skills as a result 2.4 Interest Interest is the state of wanting to know or learn about something or someone Interest in Statistics and Probability subject is the feeling of wanting to pay more attention and time to learn or research about this subject 2.5 Attention focus Paying attention means to listen to, watch, or consider something or someone very carefully That means students focus carefully on the Statistics and probability lessons 2.6 Class contribution Class contribution is a combination of a combination of three modes of assessment: individual assessments (a student's development and progress during the term), comparative assessments (what members of the same section, or class, demonstrate is possible), and contextual assessments (what students whose work have been evaluated over the years suggests about the full spectrum of class contribution performances) It is also defined as regularly attending class not just for filling a seat II Model Specification Literature review The purpose of the present study was to identify factors that may contribute to economics students who are having difficulty in introductory and advanced statistics courses Probability and statistics, the branches of mathematics concerned with the laws governing random events, including the collection, analysis, interpretation, and display of numerical data Probability has its origin in the study of gambling and insurance in the 17th century, and it is now an indispensable tool of both social and natural sciences Statistics may be said to have its origin in census counts taken thousands of years ago; as a distinct scientific discipline, however, it was developed in the early 19th century as the study of populations, economies, and moral actions and later in that century as the mathematical tool for analyzing such numbers For technical information on these subjects, see probability theory and statistics Object For economics students, countless factors influence the test score in statistical and probability Among the factors that stand out is the time to study the subject yourself, the way you listen to the lectures of the teachers that must be effective in the learning process and the score of the advanced mathematics Sometimes, students think that their self-study time is not suitable for test scores because there is an injustice between students who have bad self-study and students who have low self-study So, we want to ask the question, "Whether or not all the factors aforementioned affects how the score in Statistics and Probability subject of economics students" Constructing economics model spscore =f (amscore, interest, class, study, attention) in which: amscore: Scores of the Advanced Math subject interest: student’s interest in Statistics and Probability subject class: Contribution to the Statistics and Probability classes study: Self-study hours per day on Statistics and Probability subject attention: attention paying to lecturers Specifying economics model scoreP = β0 + β1amscore + β2interest + β3class + β4study + β5attention + μ In which β0 : is the intercept of the regression model β i : is the slope coefficient of the independent variable μ : is the disturbance of the regression model III Estimated model and statistical inferences GPA or score is the biggest goal when a student decides to get the tertiary level It requires students to make their efforts in a long time In the process, there are the main factors affecting the GPA and their degree including good and bad factors In modern life, students are often distracted by several external factors which have adverse affection on their studies In fact, these factors are constantly increasing They affect the six factors mentioned above However, a lot of universities manage to avoid such situations For example, in the period of 20072011 4,22% of students of Pedagogy University (Da Nang University) had average results Graduation results of the University of Foreign Language (Da Nang University) had only 4,8% average students At Da Nang University of Science and Technology, course 2006-2011 graduated with 82% of graduates having good degree or higher At Duy Tan University, a number of students receiving good or higher degrees accounted for 94,5% Another example is the 58th school year (2008-2012) of Hanoi National University of Education, among 1,547 students, only students graduated with an average degree (accounting for 0,58%) In addition, Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology, the number of students receiving good, excellent degree was 27,6% As for Van Hien University, at the end of 2012, graduation ceremony gave degrees to 1155 graduates, only 27 individuals received excellent degree, 386 students received good, accounting for 36% It is clear that the GPA or Statistic and Probability Scores in FTU witnessed the change This reported is supposed to clarify this problem Data overview - This set of data is a primary one, as it is collected from our survey We get the data from our survey on FTU students and gain 150 qualified observations after cleaning all sets of data - We use des command to give a general description of the variables The most important information obtained after running des command is the meaning of the variables Here is the result that our group got when doing a statistic description about the dependent variable and independent variables, by running des command expressed as “des spscore amscore interest attention study class” CONCLUSION Through the analysis of this report, we can show that these factors - time of self-study, score of the advanced mathematics, attention to the lecturer, … etc - have positive impacts on the subject of statistics and probability Obviously, students who not take the time to study on their own and review have difficulty achieving the desired score on the test Besides, those who not intend to study statistically seriously are hard to pass this subject Therefore, students need to choose an appropriate way to maximize their ability to study statistics and probability The basic understanding of econometrics, together with the external knowledge, help us to complete this report This report not only helps us to understand more about econometrics and improve our testing skills, it also teaches us about this useful application which helps us complete this report However, there are still some shortcomings in this report First of all, besides these factors, there are still some other variables that increase the estimated accuracy of the report on the score of statistics and probability such as attitudes, social networks, extraordinary activities without making some false calculations Second, these are just learnings that we may know so there may be some misinterpretations in this report Third, we have problems in running vif because there are some wrong details In conclusion, we hope Dr Quynh and readers can give us helpful comments on the report so that we will much better on our next research 21 REFERENCE Bu.edu.(2018) Why Study Statistics » Statistics » Boston University https://www.bu.edu/stat/undergraduate-program-information/why-study-statisti cs/ Chegg.com (2018) What is Advanced College Math - Chegg Tutors | Online https://www.chegg.com/tutors/what-is-Advanced-College-Math/ Cran.r-project.org (2018) https://cran.rproject.org/web/packages/IPSUR/vignettes/IPSUR.pdf Garfield, J & delMas, R (1991) Students' conceptions of probability In Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Teaching Statistics, D Vere-Jones (Ed.) Volume pp 340-349 Voorburg, The Netherlands: International Statistical Institute IvyWise (2018) Self-Studying: What’s the Benefit and How to Do It | IvyWise https://www.ivywise.com/ivywise-knowledgebase/newsletter/article/self-studyi ng-whats-the-benefit-and-how-to-do-it/ Joan, G.(1987) How Students learn Statistics 1st ed [pdf] Mexico: International Statistical Institute https://iaseweb.org/documents/intstatreview/95.Garfield.pdf Oxford Dictionaries | English (2018) self-study | Definition of self-study in English by Oxford Dictionaries https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/self-study Shaughnessy, J.M (1992) Research in probability and statistics: Reflections and directions In Handbook of Research on Mathematics Teaching and Learning D.A Grouws (Ed.) pp 465-494 New York: Macmillan Shaughnessy, J.M (1977) Misconceptions of probability: An experiment with a small-group activity-based, model building approach to introductory probability at the college level Education Studies in Mathematics, 8,285-316 10 Svetlana and Gillian, I.(2010) Teaching Strategies to Promote Statistical Literacy: Review And Implementation 1st ed [pdf] United Kingdom: Lancaster University http://icots.info/8/cd/pdfs/contributed/ICOTS8_C193_TISHKOVSKAY.pdf 11 Sydney.edu.au (2018) Constructivism - Learning and Teaching - The University of Sydney 22 12 http://sydney.edu.au/education_social_work/learning_teaching/ict/theory/constr uctivism.shtml https://laodong.vn/archived/lam-phat-sinh-vien-kha-gioi-mung-hay-lo-713880.l 23 INDIVIDUAL ASSESSMENT Evaluator Nhi Mai Đức Khánh Hồng Nhi - 10 10 10 Mai 10 - 10 10 Đức 10 10 - 10 Khánh 10 10 - 10 Hồng 10 10 10 - Average score 9.75 9.75 9.75 9.75 9.75 24 APPENDIX Table 1: Explanation Variables Variable spscore Explanation Type of variable score of Statistics and Probability subject Format Dependent Variable Quantitative %8.0g amscore score of Advanced Mathematics Independent Variable Quantitative %8.0g interest Interest in Statistics and Probability subject Independent Variable (Dummy Variable) Qualitative %8.0g class Contribution to the Statistics and Probability classes Independent Variable (Dummy Variable) Qualitative %8.0g study Self-study hour per day on Statistics and Probability subject Independent Variable Quantitative %8.0g attention Attention paying to the lectures Independent Variable (Dummy Variable) Qualitative %8.0g Table 2: Data collected spscore amscore interest attention study class 9.5 9.5 1 2.5 10 8.5 1 1 25 1 0.5 0 9.5 1 0.5 6.5 0 0 9.5 1 0.5 7.5 0 0.5 6.5 6.5 0 0 7 0 0 10 10 1 1 7.5 0.5 0.5 8.5 1 0.5 4.5 0 0 8.5 0.5 10 1 1 6.5 0 8 0.5 10 1 1 9.5 7.5 0.5 7.5 0.5 6.5 7.5 0 0 0 6.5 4.5 0 0 26 7.5 0.5 6.5 0 0 8.5 6.5 0.5 8.5 0 0.5 0 6.5 0 5.5 0 0 6.5 5.5 0 0 7 0 0 6.5 0 0 6.5 0 0 9.5 8.5 1 0.5 9.5 7.5 0.5 9.5 9.5 1 0.5 4.5 0 0 6.5 6.5 0 0 6.5 0 0 8 0 0.5 6.5 4.5 0 0 10 10 1 1 8.5 0.5 7.5 0 0.5 8.5 6.5 0.5 27 10 1 0.5 0 10 1 9.5 9.5 1 0.5 6.5 0.5 1 0.5 0.5 9.5 10 1 0.5 9.5 7.5 0.5 10 1 0.5 6.5 0.5 8.5 1 0.5 7.5 7.5 0 0.5 0.5 7.5 8.5 0 0.5 7.5 0 0 10 1 0 0 0.5 0 8.5 0.5 0.5 10 1 0.5 28 6.5 0 0 7.5 6.5 0 0.5 9.5 8.5 1 0.5 7.5 0 0 6.5 5.5 0 0 10 8.5 1 1 1 0.5 9.5 0.5 7.5 0 0 5.5 0 0 6.5 4.5 0 0 8.5 1 0.5 7.5 6.5 0.5 9.5 10 1 0.5 8 0.5 0.5 8.5 0.5 7.5 0 0.5 0 0 8.5 6.5 0 0.5 0 7.5 0 0.5 29 9.5 10 1 0.5 7.5 6.5 0.5 0 0.5 6 0 0 10 10 1 1 6.5 5.5 0 0 8.5 6.5 0.5 10 10 1 1 0 0 8.5 0 0.5 10 1 1 8.5 0.5 9.5 0.5 9.5 7.5 0.5 8 0 0.5 9.5 7.5 0.5 4.5 0 0 7.5 1 0.5 7.5 0.5 10 9.5 1 1 9.5 8.5 0.5 30 6.5 5.5 0 0 6.5 0 0 10 10 1 1 7.5 0 0.5 5.5 0 0 0 0 8.5 9.5 0.5 8.5 9.5 0.5 6.5 6.5 0 0 10 1 6.5 0.5 8.5 9.5 1 0.5 6.5 0.5 8.5 1 0.5 6.5 0 0 8.5 6.5 0.5 0.5 9.5 1 0.5 1 0.5 9.5 1 0.5 5.5 0 0 1 0.5 9.5 8.5 1 0.5 31 6.5 0.5 8.5 0 0.5 6 0 0 6.5 5.5 0 0 6.5 0 0 8.5 7.5 0.5 6.5 0.5 8.5 1 0.5 6.5 0.5 10 8.5 1.5 8.5 0 0.5 Table 3: des table des spscore amscore interest attention study class Variable Storage Display Value Label Name Type format spscore float %8.0 g amscore float %8.0 g interest byte %8.0 g attention byte %8.0 g study float %8.0 g class byte %8.0 g Variable Value Table 4: Summary of simple statistics for variables sum spscore amscore interest class study 32 Variable Obs Mean spscore 150 8.03 amscore 150 interest Std Dev Min Max 1.272093 10 7.36 1.455284 10 150 56 4980499 study 150 5333333 500559 class 150 4033333 3603534 2.5 Table 5: Correspondant table corr spscore amscore interest attention study class (obs=150) spscore amscore interest attention study spscore 1.000 amscore 0.7464 1.000 interest 0.7519 0.4422 1.0000 attention 0.5217 0.7190 0.3310 1.0000 study 0.8153 0.6011 0.6028 0.4052 1.0000 class 0.7125 0.4901 0.5976 0.2811 0.5482 class 1.0000 Table 6: Regression of spscore (dependent) and amscore interest attention study class (independent) reg spscore amscore interest attention study class 33 Source SS df MS Number of Obs = 150 Model 210.440 52 Residual 30.6744 041 144 795 Total 241.115 42.0881 213017 F(5,144) = 197.58 Prob > F = 0.0000 R-squared = 0.8728 219 Adj R-squared = 0.8684 149 Root MSE = 46154 1.61822 148 34 spscore Coef Std Err t P > |t| amscore 2693326 0442672 6.08 0.000 1818351 3568301 interest 7293491 1044047 6.99 0.000 5229854 9357129 attention 0270072 1169929 0.23 0.818 -.2042381 2582525 study 1.217141 1512262 8.05 0.000 918231 1.516051 class 5057395 1017541 4.97 0.000 3046149 7068642 spscore 4.869813 2761929 17.63 0.000 4.323897 5.415729 35 [ 95% Conf Interval ] ... because of its immense applicability Therefore, our group has decided to conduct in-depth research on the determinants that influence the Statistics and Probability scores of economics students. .. to further assist in improving economics freshmen's Statistics and Probability scores INTRODUCTION There is a general consensus that leads to the difference in the performance of economics students. .. Statistics and Probability: Because of interest in the subject, students make more efforts to study or learn more about this topic Therefore, the higher the interest in Statistics and Probability, the