tiểu luận kinh tế lượng THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SOME ASEAN COUNTRIES FROM 1993 TO 2018

FOREIGN TRADE UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS ***** _***** ECONOMETRICS REPORT THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SOME ASEAN COUNTRIES FROM 1993 TO 2018 Group 12 : Le Duc An Cong Hoang Long - 1814450008 - 1814450048 Pham Duc Nam - 1814450057 Nguyen Trong Nhan - 1814450059 CLASS : KTEE218(1-1920).1_LT Instructors : Ms Nguyen Thuy Quynh Ms Vu Thi Phuong Mai Hanoi, September 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION SECTION 1: OVERVIEW THE TOPIC 1.1 Introduction to Economic Growth theory 1.2 The theory of Economic Growth 1.2.1 Definition 1.2.2 The importance of GDP growth rate 1.2.3 The Cobb-Douglas Function 1.3 Literature review 1.3.1 The factors have effect on GDP growth rate 1.3.2 Research hypotheses 10 SECTION 2: MODEL SPECIFICATION 15 2.1 Methodology 15 2.1.1 Method used to gather the data 15 2.1.2 Method used to analyze the data 15 2.1.3 Method applied to derive the model 15 2.2 Theoretical model specification 16 2.3 Description of data 17 2.3.1 Data source 17 2.3.2 Statistical description 20 2.3.3 Correlation matrix between variables 20 SECTION 3: ESTABLISHMENT AND STATISTICAL DIMENSION 22 3.1 Estimated model 22 3.1.1 Estimation result 22 3.1.2 The sample regression model 23 3.1.3 The coefficient of determination 24 3.2 Hypothesis testing 24 3.2.1 Coefficients 24 3.2.2 Testing the overall significance of the sample regression 28 3.3 Discussion and recommendation 29 CONCLUSION 32 REFERENCES 32 APPENDIX 34 INDIVIDUAL ASSESSMENT 37 ABSTRACT Economic growth is regarded as the key indicator to a country’s development According to the economists it allow the living standard of people to rise and more people to find jobs Researches in the last decades have shown several factors that have huge impacts on a country’s economic growth We found out that FDI, ODA, international trade, inflation rate and population all possess significant influence Know about the importance of economic growth, we decide to have a thorough research about few factors we have mentioned above and came up with this topic: “The impact of macroeconomic factors on economic growth in some Asean countries from 1993 - 2018” This report aims at evaluating the impact of the five factors above on economic growth in developing countries (Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines) Last but not least, due to the limited amount of time as well as some certain difficulties in understanding and data collecting, this report may hardly avoid mistakes Our group is always willing to receive feedback from readers to complete our report to the fullest Many thanks! INTRODUCTION Econometrics is the quantitative application of statistical and mathematical models using data to develop theories or test existing hypothesis in economics and to forecast future trends from historical data It subjects real - world data to statistical trials and then compares and contrasts the results against the theory or theories being tested Depending on whether you are interested in testing an existing theory or in using existing data to develop a new hypothesis based on those observations, econometrics can be subdivided into two major categories: theoretical and applied Those who routinely engage in this practice are commonly known as econometricians For every country around the world, economic growth is one of the most important issues that governments have to deal with In history, many people have tried to figure out how to boost up the economic growth, what are the factors that affect GDP and its growth rate, etc… According to the classical theory of Economic Growth, there are four primary inputs of the economy which are: Natural resource, Investment, Labour and Technology Foreign direct investment (FDI), International trade (TRADE), Official Development Assistance (ODA), Inflation and Population are some factors we like to discuss that play important roles in economic growth in all economic, cultural, social fields The relationship between these five factors and the economic growth have been studied for several decades and these results show there are correlation among them In this report, our team conduct a research about the impact of FDI, ODA, Trade, Population and Inflation on economic growth To be more specific, we investigate these factors in different country (Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines) in the period of time between 1993 and 2018 This study will be essential to policy maker know more about the performance of these factors and economic growth It will also assist in providing the frame work of where work has been done by earlier researchers It will also provide a framework on which further research in economic growth could be carried out This study will also be an invaluable tool for students, researchers, research institutions and general public that specialize in economics who wants to study more about factors that impact the economic growth The report of our group has main sections: - Section 1: Overview of the topic: In this section, we give a very brief look through the three theories and models about economic growth - Section 2: Model specification: We compare our topic with some previous reports having the same object as ours - Section 3: Estimated and statistical inference: The methodology and explanation of the variables are mentioned in this section Data description is included This part also includes the estimated model using the OLS method and Hypothesis testing SECTION 1: OVERVIEW OF THE TOPIC 1.1 Introduction to Economic Growth theory From time to time, various theories, perspectives and models were provided to account for the sources of economic growth and the determinants of economic development For most people, a theory is an impractical contention and it has no support in fact For the economist, however, a theory is a systematic explanation of interrelationships among economic variables and its purpose is to explain causal relationship among these variables A theory is usually used not only for a better understanding of the world, but for the basis of politics Economics, just like people, has moods Sometimes it’s in wonderful shapeit’s expand, at the other times, it’s depressed The moods of the economy are associated with different problems Generally, when an economy is growing or expanding, economic activity- the production of goods and services (output) is increasing When people produce and sell their goods, they earn income So when an economy is growing, bot total output and total income are increasing Since most of us prefer more to less, growth is easy to take Growth economics is about how to increase the economic full-employment GDP productive capacities 1.2 The theory of Economic Growth 1.2.1 Definition Economic growth is concerned with the question of how to increase the economy’s productive capacity of full employment - GDP Economic growth is defined and measured in two related way Specifically, economic growth may be defined as the increase in real GDP per capita that occurs in a period of time or as the increase in the real GDP per capita that occurs overtime For example, if one is concerned with the military potential or political preeminence, the first definition is more relevant But per capita output is clearly superior when comparing living standard among nations or regions, we should focus on the second Economic growth by either definition is usually calculated in term of annual percentage rates of growth 1.2.2 The importance of GDP growth rate The growth of total output relative to population means a higher standard of living An increasing in real output results in more satisfactory answer to the economizing small different perspective Growth is the key to meet new needs and resolve socio-economic problems both domestically and internationally In the same way, the economic development can, for example, under take the environment without impairing existing bulls of consumption, investment and public goods production Moreover, by easing the burden of scarcity, reducing society’s production constraints economic growth allow nation to realize existing goals more fully and to undertake new output Over period of years, a slightly difference in the rate of growth can becomes significant change because of the “miracle” of compound interest The importance of the growth rate is undeniable 1.2.3 The Cobb-Douglas Function In economics and econometrics, the Cobb–Douglas production function is a particular functional form of the production function, widely used to represent the technological relationship between the amounts of two or more inputs (particularly physical capital and labor) and the amount of output that can be produced by those inputs The Cobb–Douglas form was developed and tested against statistical evidence by Charles Cobb and Paul Douglas during 1927–1947 The Cobb-Douglas production function, in its stochastic form, may be expressed as: Yi= 1X2i 2X3i 3eui Where: Y = output X2 = labour input X3 = capital input u = stochastic disturbance term e = base of natural logarithm From equation, it is clear that the relationship between output and the two inputs is nonlinear However, if we log-transform this model, we obtain: ln Yi = ln = 1+ 2ln 0+ 2ln X2i + 3ln X3i + ui X2i + 3ln X3i + ui Where = ln Thus, the model is linear in the parameters and therefore is a linear regression model The Cobb-Douglas help us to identify the impacts of explanatory variables on the explained variable 1.3 Literature review 1.3.1 The factors have effect on GDP growth rate There is also a number of FDI researches in general Although there are sensible theoretical bases to assume that FDI will have a beneficial effect on financial development, current empirical proof on this nexus is not conclusive Many studies support the beneficial financial development impact of FDI Authors found that their empirical findings show the beneficial effects on financial development of FDI inflow, national investment, trade openness, and secondary education Bahname (2012) studies the impact of FDI on economic growth in Southern Asia for the period 1977-2009 The results reveal that FDI, along with other variables such as human capital, economic infrastructure and capital formation have positive and significant effects on economic growth Nguyen Thi Phuong Hoa (2004) studies the effects of FDI on productivity growth in the whole economy, under the analytical framework of relationship between FDI and poverty She then draws a conclusion of FDI’s positive effect on provincial economic growth, via formation and accumulation of capital assets In another research, Nguyen Mai (2003), which considers the effect of FDI on economic growth, both vertically and horizontally, based on Vietnam's FDI statistics from 1988 to 2003, with additional forecasts to 2005 According to him, FDI has positive effect on economic growth at the national level, and therefore, Vietnam needs to expand the market and seek new partners in order to attract more FDI inflows Most research has found the positive impact of FDI on economic growth Certain other studies not support that FDI affect positively on economic growth They assume that the FDI has an unclear effect on development The hypotheses of FDI development in Jordan by Louzi and Abadi (2011), based on time series data from 1990 to 2009, the econometric framework of cointegration and error correction mechanism is employed to capture two way linkages between interested variables The empirical results show that FDI inflows not affect an independent influence on economic growth, while domestic investment and trade liberalization have positive impacts on GDP growth Geijer (2008) also used a multiple regression analysis with GDP per capita as dependent variable in Mexico He found that FDI and openness in both in the short and long run, are not significantly causing the GDP per capital Some individuals believe that FDI's impact on economic growth is conditional positive effect Jyun-Yi and Chih-Chiang (2008) investigate whether the impact of FDI on economic growth is dependent upon different absorptive capacities by using threshold regression methods, created by Caner and Hansen (2004) The empirical results show that FDI alone plays an ambiguous role in contributing to economic growth based on a dataset of 62 countries covering the period from 1975 to 2000 Moreover, under the threshold regression, FDI is found to have a positive and significant impact on growth when host countries have better levels of initial GDP and human capital In both theoretical and empirical literature during the last three decades, a lot has been paid to the relation between trade openness and economic growth There is, however, no agreement on whether greater openness to trade stimulates economic growth There are a number of studies that deal with the effect of FDI and trade on global and (these SEA countries) financial development in general However, few have a fundamental view of the impact on economic growth of FDI, TRADE, ODA, POP, INF, especially between 1993 and 2008 We are determined to carry out this study by adding results from Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines analysis using classical econometrics panel data to contribute to the existing literature on the impact of FDI, TRADE, ODA, POP, INF on economic growth Developing countries seem to benefit from international capital flows, especially FDI and ODA, in the 1980s and 1990s From a theoretical perspective, FDI inflows seem to provide more benefits than other capital flows because, in addition to increasing a country's total capital, FDI has a positive peripheral effect of increasing the productivity of the economy through technology transfer as well as experience and technology management skills (De Mello, 1997) However, empirical evidence does not support this view such as Gorg and Greenaway (2004), Mencinger (2003), Kose and ctg (2006), Prasad and ctg (2006) and many other papers In addition, ODA is also an important factor in determining factors for economic growth of developing countries Neoclassical economists argue that developing countries are short of capital because of weak capital accumulation, so external funding is needed to enable them to develop (Sachs, 2005) However, some argue that ODA actually only plays its positive role in economic growth for developing countries in an environment of good institutional quality (corruption) At the same time, the relationship between trade and economic growth is currently controversial with two conflicting views on the relationship between these two factors The commercial view that has a positive impact on economic growth is supported by famous economists such as Adam Smith (1776), David Ricardo (1817), Edwards and Sebastian (1992) and many research papers Besides, there is some opinion that the positive impact of trade openness on economic growth is not really strong according to empirical evidence found by Rodriguez and Rodrik (1999) , Rodrik et al (2002), Alcala and Ciccone (2002) and Dollar and Kraay (2003) In "An Essay on the Principle of Population", Thomas Robert Malthus argues that the population increases exponentially: 1; 2; 4; 8; 16; 32; , the time needed to double the population by about 25 to 30 years Meanwhile, food increased only by exponentially: 1; 2; 3; 4; 5; Thus, the gap between supply and demand for food widens This correction is the cause of poverty Today, people still develop this H0: with the influence of other independent variables held constant, the FDI rate has no effect whatsoever on GDP Growth H1: with the influence of other independent variables held constant, the FDI rate impacts on GDP Growth { H:β =0 H1:β ≠ If | ts2 | > tc then we reject H0 and accept H1 The result from STATA shows that ts2 = 5.66, and tc = 1.9935 | ts2 | > tc, reject H0 and accept H1  ̂ We can conclude that β2 is statistically significant  TRADE rate coefficient H0: with the influence of other independent variables held constant, the TRADE rate has no effect whatsoever on GDP Growth H1: with the influence of other independent variables held constant, the TRADE rate impacts on GDP Growth { H:β =0 H1:β ≠ If | ts3 | > tc then we reject H0 and accept H1 The result from STATA shows that ts3 = -1.46, and tc = 1.9935 | ts3 | < tc, accept H0 and reject H1  We can conclude that ̂ is not statistically significant and it has no effect on β3 GDP Growth  ODA coefficient H0: with the influence of other independent variables held constant, the ODA has no effect whatsoever on GDP Growth H1: with the influence of other independent variables held constant, the ODA impacts on GDP Growth { H:β =0 H1:β ≠ If | ts4 | > tc then we reject H0 and accept H1 The result from STATA shows that ts4 = 0.59, and tc = 1.9935 | ts4 | < tc, accept H0 and reject H1  25 We can conclude that ̂ is not statistically significant and it has no effect on β4 GDP Growth  Population coefficient H0: with the influence of other independent variables held constant, the Population has no effect whatsoever on GDP Growth H1: with the influence of other independent variables held constant, the Population impacts on GDP Growth { H:β =0 H1:β ≠ If | ts5 | > tc then we reject H0 and accept H1 The result from STATA shows that ts5 = 0.88, and tc = 1.9935 | ts5 | < tc, accept H0 and reject H1  We can conclude that ̂ is not statistically significant and it has no effect on β5 GDP Growth  Inflation rate coefficient H0: with the influence of other independent variables held constant, the FDI rate has no effect whatsoever on GDP Growth H1: with the influence of other independent variables held constant, the FDI rate impacts on GDP Growth { H:β =0 H1:β ≠ If | ts6 | > tc then we reject H0 and accept H1 The result from STATA shows that ts6 = -8.32, and tc = 1.9935 | ts6 | > tc, reject H0 and accept H1  ̂ We can conclude that β6 is statistically significant b Confidence Interval 0: Hypothesis testing: { βi = ̂̂ ̂̂ 1: βi ≠ 26 From the results of regression run by OLS method on Stata software, we have confidence intervals of the regression coefficients with significance level of α = 5% as follows:       Confidence interval of the intercept is β1 [3.949923; 8.426106] The confidence interval for β2: [0.3452359; 0.7201613] The confidence interval for β3: [-0.0369933; 0.0056996] The confidence interval for β4: [-0.0466823; 0.086028] The confidence interval for β5: [-4.42e-09; 1.14e-08] The confidence interval for β6: [-0.2293342; -0.1406641] With the independent variable TRADE, ODA, POP, the value belongs to the confidence interval so we can not reject the hypothesis H0, so the TRADE, ODA, POP variable not have a statistical value at the 5% significance level, meaning that they can not affect the variable GDP growth For the remaining variables FDI, INF, the value does not belong to the confidence interval so we can reject the assumption H0 We conclude that they are statistically significant at the α = 5% level c p - value From the above results we have the following table: Variables p-value FDI 0.000 TRADE 0.148 ODA 0.556 POP 0.382 INF 0.000 FDI and INF variables have p-value coefficient = 0.000 0.01, meaning that TRADE variable is not statistically significant with 1% significance level 27  ODA variable has p-value coefficient = 0.556 > 0.01, meaning that GDP variable is not statistically significant with the significance level of 1%  The POP variable has a p-value = 0.382 > 0.01, meaning the EXP variable is not statistically significant at the 1% significance level  Only FDI and INF variables of the model are statistically significant  variables ODA, TRADE and POP have no statistically significant effects on the dependent variable 3.2.2 Testing the overall significance of the sample regression a) F – test testing overall significance At the level of significance = 5%, the critical F value is F0.05 (5; 72) = 2.7384 H0: Both TRADE rate, FDI rate, ODA, POP, INF rate have no impact on GDP Growth H1: There is at least one coefficient has impact on GDP Growth {H0: R = H1:R2 ≠ If FS > F0.05 (5; 72) then we reject H0 and accept H1 The result from STATA shows that FS = 21.66, and F0.05 (5; 72) = 2.7384 FS > F0.05 (5; 72), reject H0 and accept H1  We can conclude that both TRADE rate, FDI rate, ODA, POP, INF rate are at least one statistically significant and have impact on GDP Growth b) P-value H0: All coefficients have no impact on GDP Growth H1: There is at least one coefficient has impact on GDP Growth {H0: R = H1:R2 ≠ If PF ≤ α, then reject H0 If PF > α, then fail to reject H0 The result from STATA shows that PF = Prob > F = 0.0000, and α = 0.05 PF < α, reject H0 and accept H1  28 We can conclude that this model can explain 95%, it is statistically significant at 5% or the overall model is statistically fitted at a significance level of 5% 3.3 Discussion and recommendation In this part, we interpret our result in detail, based on the real economic situation of Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines from 1993 to 2018 We also have some recommendations and implications drawn from our research results Then, why can independent variables just explain 60.07% for dependent variable (economic growth) in our model? The analysis in this report has revealed the impact of FDI, International Trade, ODA, Population and Inflation rate on Economic growth, which is expressed by GDP growth At 5% level of significant in this test, the coefficient on Trade, ODA, Population are not statistically significant However, this study will be essential for policy maker to know more about the performance of these five factors and economic growth It will also be an invaluable tool for students, researchers, research institutions and general public that take part in international trade who want to know more about the factors that have impact on economic growth Firstly, FDI has positive effect on economic growth of all three countries in the period between 1993 and 2018 When FDI increases by unit and other independent variables unchanged, the expected value of GDP growth will increase by 0.533 unit FDI plays an increasingly important role in many countries since it has been recognized as a growth - enhancing factor There are a number of channels through which FDI affects economic growth FDI capital has had great impact on economy by mobilising capital for development and promoting economic development Besides that, FDI also contributed towards generating jobs for the local people and accelerating the country's global integration Additionally, FDI has been a source that directly participated in and promoted the creation of several industrial sectors with a high demand for technology and addedvalue products, such as machinery manufacturing, energy, computers and 29 telephones Several products produced by foreign-invested businesses have established themselves firmly in international markets, such as telephones, electronic components and garments and textiles However, our estimated result fails to point out the shortcomings of FDI businesses since the limitation of time and knowledge and the FDI data can’t measure the following things, such as slow transfer of technology for domestic partners, environmental pollution caused by some FDI projects or tax evasion by some businesses Therefore, we have some recommendations and implications for efficient use of FDI to promote economic growth The first is to attract high-tech FDI projects from multinational companies and restrict projects as mining and real estate or projects which cause environmental pollution This should be done because it will invest in and develop supporting industries The second is for the encouragement of further development of joint ventures between domestic enterprises and foreign ones to promote technology transfer and it is required that domestic enterprises need to promote innovation and investment, improve corporate governance, the quality of human resources and the level of technology enough to absorb technology transfer The third is the improvement of the management efficiency of the government for FDI such as the balance and harmony development of the economy, simplified investment procedures, transparency of procedures, and the integration of information technology to reduce time for investment procedures, etc In addition, in the period between 1993 and 2018, when other independent are stable and the Inflation rate increases by unit, the expected value of GDP growth will decrease by 0.185 units As we know, the existence of a threshold beyond which inflation exerts a negative effect on economic growth Inflation levels below the threshold levels of inflation have no effect on growth, while inflation rates above the threshold have a significant negative effect on growth Finally, the conclusions above are also subjected to a number of limitations First, it is the analysis in only 26 years from 1993 to 2018 in three countries (Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines) It is not a long period of time to cover all characteristics of tendency growth of FDI, Trade, ODA, Population and Inflation rate Second, there may be other variables that affect the economic growth rate such as technology, natural 30 resources, labour… Including these in the regression would increase the precision of estimates as well as eliminate the potential of omitting the bias variable This investigation, however, is left for future research Goldberger said: “R has a very modest role in regression analysis, being a measure of the goodness of fit of a sample LS [least-squares] linear regression in a body of data Nothing in the CR [CLRM] model requires that R be high Hence a high R is not evidence in favor of the model 2 and a low R is not evidence against it” Therefore, that independent variables (FDI, TRADE, ODA, POPULATION and INFLATION) just explain 60.07% for explanatory variable is understandable 31 CONCLUSION The analysis in this report has revealed the impact of FDI, International Trade, ODA, Population and Inflation rate on Economic growth, which is expressed by GDP growth Economic growth positively correlates with FDI, ODA, Population and inversely correlates with Trade, Inflation rate This study will be essential for policy maker to know more about the performance of these five factors and economic growth It will also be an invaluable tool for students, researchers, research institutions and general public that take part in international trade who want to know more about the factors that have impact on economic growth of Vietnam However, the conclusions above are also subjected to a number of limitations First, it is the analysis in only 26 years from 1993 to 2018 in three countries (Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines) It is not a long period of time to cover all characteristics of tendency growth of FDI, Trade, ODA, Population and Inflation rate Second, there may be other variables that affect the economic growth rate such as technology, natural resources, labour… Including these in the regression would increase the precision of estimates as well as eliminate the potential of omitting the bias variable This investigation, however, is left for future research 32 REFERENCES Damodar N Gujarati Basic econometrics the fourth edition Michael P Todaro and Stephen C Smith Economic Development the 11th Edition Adam Smith The Wealth of Nation Dr Lan Phi Nguyen (2008) Absorptive Capacity, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Vietnam Nam Hoai Trinh and Quynh Anh Mai Nguyen (2015) The impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth: Evidence from Vietnam, Doshisha University, Japan Bahname, M (2012) Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Southern Asia, Atlantic Review of Economics, p34-48 Nguyễn Mại FDI tăng trưởng kinh tế Việt Nam, Báo Đầu Tư, 24/12/2003 Nguyen Thi Phuong Hoa (2004) Foreign Direct Investment and its Contributions to Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction in Vietnam (19862001), Peter Lang, Frankfurt am Main, Germany Louzi, B M., & Abadi, A (2011) The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Economic Growth in Jordan International Journal of Research and Reviews in Applied Sciences, p253-258 10 G.M Grossman, E Helpman (1991) Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA 11 Edwards, S (1998) Openness, productivity and growth: What we really know? The Economic Journal, 108 12 Nowbutsing, B M (2014) The impact of openness on economic growth: Case of Indian Ocean rim countries Journal of Economics and Development Studies 13 Ulasan, B (2015) Trade openness and economic growth: Panel evidence Applied Economics Letters, 22, 163–167 14 Vamvakidis, A (2002) How robust is the growth-openness connection: Historical evidence Journal of Economic Growth, 7, 57–80 33 15 Rigobon, R., & Rodrik, D (2005) Rule of law, democracy, openness, and income: Estimating the interrelationships The Economics of Transition, 13, 533–564 16 Afzal, M., & Hussain, I (2010) Export-led growth hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan Journal of Quantitative Economics, 8, 130–147 17 Lawal, A I., Nwanji, T I., Asaleye, A., & Ahmed, V (2016) Economic growth, financial development and trade openness in Nigeria: An application of the ARDL bound testing approach Cogent Economics and Finance, 4, 1–15 18 Nguyen Ngoc Thach, Le Hoang Anh and Mai Binh Duong (2017) The relationship between foreign direct investment, trade and economic growth in Vietnam APPENDIX The dataset of three ASEAN countries during 1993 – 2018: Year Country GDP Growth (%) FDI (%) TRADE ODA per (%) capita (US$) Population Inflation (%) 1993 Vietnam 8.072730657 7.027592565 66.2122672 3.493899362 72300308 17.4149746 1994 Vietnam 8.838980952 11.93948283 77.4731979 12.27814046 73651218 16.952316 1995 Vietnam 9.540480175 8.585965855 74.7212659 11.14397093 74910461 17.0401954 1996 Vietnam 9.340017496 9.713080637 92.7057468 12.32056641 76068743 8.69676712 1997 Vietnam 8.152084143 8.270096758 94.3444841 12.95758271 77133214 6.59740478 1998 Vietnam 5.764455464 6.141214403 97.0012485 15.08710604 78115710 8.83786412 1999 Vietnam 4.773586881 4.922663457 102.787407 18.09127909 79035871 5.73470283 2000 Vietnam 6.787316408 4.16392408 111.417094 21.06096012 79910412 3.40882766 2001 Vietnam 6.192893312 3.977335462 111.955938 17.73365969 80742499 2.62226478 2002 Vietnam 6.320820988 3.992687051 116.696869 15.65130657 81534407 4.69892817 2003 Vietnam 6.899063492 3.666012292 124.327954 21.47696761 82301656 7.10960246 2004 Vietnam 7.536410612 3.544081073 133.016498 22.11976403 83062821 8.43331213 2005 Vietnam 7.547247727 3.390403646 130.714846 22.79421859 83832661 18.8105196 2006 Vietnam 6.977954812 3.616000904 138.313622 21.89049693 84617540 8.56894797 34 2007 Vietnam 7.129504484 8.654717714 154.605384 29.38951089 85419591 9.63022561 2008 Vietnam 5.661771208 9.663039055 154.31748 29.5561123 86243413 22.6733162 2009 Vietnam 5.397897543 7.168819875 134.706318 42.92678067 87092252 6.21562315 2010 Vietnam 6.423238217 33.51334231 87967651 12.0742957 2011 Vietnam 6.240302749 5.481799304 162.91455 40.72483885 88871561 21.2606593 2012 Vietnam 5.247367156 5.370298997 156.55393 45.80396532 89802487 10.9260338 2013 Vietnam 5.421882991 5.19792941 165.094237 45.01866331 90753472 4.76065484 2014 Vietnam 5.983654637 4.940800273 169.534513 45.96454904 91714595 3.66238381 2015 Vietnam 6.679288789 6.106361156 178.767415 34.06840328 92677076 -0.1907881 2016 Vietnam 6.210811668 6.138072368 184.686278 30.91434693 93638724 1.11064919 2017 Vietnam 6.81224566 6.300834952 200.38458 25.12129342 94596642 4.08578819 2018 Vietnam 7.075788617 6.327862167 187.52118 21.47696761 95540395 3.26629992 1993 Indonesia 6.49640812 1.268300646 50.5233859 10.13732297 190851175 19.1525783 1994 Indonesia 7.539971096 1.19225193 51.877101 7.992369455 193917462 7.7765728 1995 Indonesia 8.220007399 2.15007984 53.9585901 6.614542335 196934260 9.88204513 1996 Indonesia 7.818187077 2.724197886 52.2647437 5.405269446 199901228 8.67650976 1997 Indonesia 4.699878854 2.167796852 55.9938588 4.015847125 202826446 12.5713763 1998 Indonesia -13.12672549 -0.25229045 96.1861924 6.145983753 205724592 75.2711688 1999 Indonesia 0.791126082 -1.33257354 62.9439129 10.22274655 208615169 14.161196 2000 Indonesia 4.920067747 -2.75743993 71.4368759 7.864119595 211513823 20.4474569 2001 Indonesia 3.643466447 -1.85568619 69.7932075 6.850616496 214427417 14.2957154 2002 Indonesia 4.499475391 0.074151638 59.0794618 5.998818731 217357793 5.89605169 2003 Indonesia 4.780369122 -0.25425632 53.6164937 8.058482498 220309469 5.48742914 2004 Indonesia 5.030873945 0.73824398 59.7612948 0.605726271 223285676 8.55072703 2005 Indonesia 5.692571304 2.916114843 63.9879359 11.21024323 226289470 14.3317871 2006 Indonesia 5.500951785 1.347942646 56.6571268 5.749476681 229318262 14.0874244 2007 Indonesia 6.345022227 1.603010572 54.82925 3.6765262 232374245 11.2585785 2008 Indonesia 6.0137036 1.826329024 58.5613996 4.989812662 235469762 18.1497512 2009 Indonesia 4.628871183 0.90391942 45.5121214 4.384031229 238620563 8.27475243 2010 Indonesia 6.223854181 2.025179138 46.7012739 5.747284353 241834215 15.2642937 2011 Indonesia 6.169784208 2.302984285 50.1800132 1.640201627 245116206 7.46594303 2012 Indonesia 6.030050653 2.309780327 49.5828983 0.277759428 248452413 3.75387875 6.9006118 152.217369 35 2013 Indonesia 5.557263689 2.551356334 48.6373727 0.275886552 251806402 4.96599029 2014 Indonesia 5.006668426 2.819972605 48.0801756 -1.497046569 255129004 5.44317455 2015 Indonesia 4.8763223 2.297616387 41.9376402 -0.129265342 258383256 3.98024266 2016 Indonesia 5.033069183 0.487372471 37.4213418 -0.423774457 261554226 2.43892409 2017 Indonesia 5.067406366 2.019877591 39.3627455 0.882575594 264645886 4.27498589 2018 Indonesia 5.171270328 1.91981264 43.0216641 0.605726271 267663435 3.83148621 1993 Philippines 2.116307179 2.27707123 71.1664701 22.37922558 66593904 6.8321581 1994 Philippines 4.387623341 2.48266116 73.9595566 15.60335284 68180859 9.9913146 1995 Philippines 4.678692219 1.99406402 80.5385343 13.07361071 69784088 7.5508702 1996 Philippines 5.845873472 1.83106101 89.799956 12.71887612 71401749 7.6610378 1997 Philippines 5.185362276 1.48401357 108.250317 9.309349179 73030884 6.224392 1998 Philippines -0.576718146 3.16728169 98.6622393 8.222357576 74672014 22.381724 1999 Philippines 3.081916458 1.50249751 94.9094577 8.990916023 76325927 6.5850568 2000 Philippines 4.41122216 1.83520659 104.729856 7.374369252 77991755 5.709796 2001 Philippines 2.893987062 0.99656353 98.9089405 7.177223294 79672873 5.5494798 2002 Philippines 3.645903318 2.17435111 102.435077 6.801428688 81365258 4.1622275 2003 Philippines 4.970368696 0.58635504 101.849333 8.623395584 83051971 3.2013279 2004 Philippines 6.697623613 0.64790626 102.642518 5.313978513 84710542 5.5168866 2005 Philippines 4.77766782 1.61441201 97.8785524 6.57633107 86326250 5.8280097 2006 Philippines 5.242960356 2.21536628 94.9408282 6.485477224 87888675 4.9490241 2007 Philippines 6.616662284 1.95415536 86.61941 6.814794645 89405482 3.090331 2008 Philippines 4.152756843 0.76926807 76.282266 0.421223018 90901965 7.5490621 2009 Philippines 1.14833222 1.2264981 65.590384 3.331632367 92414158 2.7732452 2010 Philippines 7.63226478 0.53629079 71.4194903 5.760972122 93966780 4.2223872 2011 Philippines 3.659751601 0.89547743 67.6979166 -1.922464263 95570047 4.021723 2012 Philippines 6.683818881 1.28569245 64.8994438 -0.034666275 97212638 1.9683842 2013 Philippines 7.064024264 1.37486206 60.2452893 1.942520332 98871552 2.0454675 2014 Philippines 6.145298786 2.01682578 61.4716321 6.739815446 100513138 3.1574375 2015 Philippines 6.066548905 1.92611163 62.6900088 5.046457651 102113212 -0.586574 2016 Philippines 6.884055037 2.71551778 65.5047432 2.736245946 103663927 1.6939992 2017 Philippines 6.677553566 3.2703433 71.8959343 1.523676207 105173264 2.3325387 2018 Philippines 6.243737742 2.96224875 76.0587526 1.640201627 106651922 3.7608648 36 The Stata estimation outputs: The ouput of the command des GDP FDI TRADE ODA POP: The ouput of the command sum GDP FDI TRADE ODA POP: The ouput of the command corr GDP FDI TRADE ODA POP: 37 The ouput of the command reg GDP FDI TRADE ODA POP: 38 INDIVIDUAL ASSESSMENT Lê Đức An Cơng Hồng Long Phạm Đức Nam Nguyễn Trọng Nhân 10 10 10 10 10 Evaluator Lê Đức An Cơng Hồng Long 10 Phạm Đức Nam 9 Nguyễn Trọng Nhân 9 10 Average 9.333 9.333 10 10 10 39 ... factors on economic growth in some Asean countries from 1993 - 2018 This report aims at evaluating the impact of the five factors above on economic growth in developing countries (Vietnam, Indonesia... rejected the claims of Jeffrey Sachs and concluded that the growth of the countries in recent years is not due to the flow of ODA, but also to other factors contributing to the GDP growth of the countries. .. theory of Economic Growth 1.2.1 Definition Economic growth is concerned with the question of how to increase the economy’s productive capacity of full employment - GDP Economic growth is defined