Nghiên cứu cơ sở khoa học điều hành hệ thống hồ chứa thượng nguồn sông hồng phục vụ phát điện và cấp nước chống hạn hạ du

DAI HOC QUdC GIA HA NQI NGHIEN CQU CO SO KHOA HOC OlEU HANH HE THONG HO C H Q A T H U O N G N G U O N SONG HONG • PHUC VU PHAT OIEN VA CAP NUdC CHONG HAN • • • HADU • D £ T A I NGHIEN CUtJ KHOA HOC DAC BIET CAP DAI HOC QUOC GIA HA NOI Ma so: QG.07.20 Chu tri: PGS-TS Nguyen Hmi Khai DAI H O C Q U O C GIA HA NO TRUNG TAM THONG TIN THU V!EN J21Z_^I^= HANOI 2007 BAO CAO TOM TAT DE TAI Ten de tai Nghien cuu ca sa khoa hoc dieu hanh he thong ho chua thugng nguon song Hong phuc VU phat dien va cap nuoc chdng han du Ma so QG 07-20 Chu tri de tai: PGS.TS Nguydn Huu Khai Cac can bo tham gia ThS Le thi Hue HVCH Pham Phuang Chi CN VilThi Huong CN Dinh Xuan Tnrdng Cac can bo khac da dang ky Hong de cuang ban cdng vice khac hoac ihuycMi chuyCn sang dan vi khac ncn khong thd tham gia duac Miic (leu va noi dung nghien cuu 1) Muc tieu Tien CO sd phan ti'ch dac diem ddng chay iwivd can va chiic nang ciia he ihong ho chiia ihuang ngudn song Hong, lap irung vao ho chiia Hda Blnh-Tuyen Quang nghien ciiu ccv sd khoa hoc dteu hanh he ihdng phuc vu phat dien va cap nude chdng han du 2) Noi dung nghien cuu - Phan li'ch dac diem ddng chay miia can he thong song Hdng - Danh gia thuc trang hoal dong phat dien va cap nude chdng han cua cac hd chiia ihuang ngudn song Hdng - NghiC-n ciiu ca sd khoa hoc dieu hanh he thong hd chiia Hoa Blnh Tuyen Quang cho phat dien va cap niuVc chdng han -De xuiii giai phap nang cao hieu qua van hanh he thong ho chiia cho muc lieu phat dien va cap nude chdng han Ciic ket (|ua dat duoc /J \ e khoa hoc cong ui^he - Da |")han lich tlae diem ddng cha\ mda can lie liidng song Hdng chu Irc^mz vao nluriii: nam i:an dav - Danh gia thuc trang boat dong phat dien va cap nude chdng han ciia cac ho chiia thugng ngudn song Hdng thai gian qua nhal la sau nhu cau cap nude chdng han trd nen cap thiet - Uhg dung mo hinh HEC-RESSIM diln loan he thong chua Hoa BinhTuyen Quang va mo hinh MIKEl diln loan luu song Hdng de xac dinh ca sd khoa hoc d'\6\x hanh he thong ho chiia - Tren ca sd cac ket qua phan tich ti'nh loan, de xuat giai phap nang cao hieu qua van hanh he thong hd chiia cho muc tieu phat dien va cap nude chdng han 2) Ve hdi bdo vd hoi nghi khoa hoc ' Dang bai biio: + bai bao tai Tap chi KTTV sd 563 thang 11/2007 +1 bai bao tai Tap chi Khoa hoc DHQGHN s6 1S, tap 25/2009 - Chuan bi dang bai bao - Tham gia hdi nghi khoa hoc Dai hoc DHKHTN nam 2008 - sinh viCMi nghien cuu khoa hoc 3) Ve dao tqo -Hd Ira NCS giai doan dfiu, vi sau dd NCS chuy^n di Han Qudc - khda luan sinh vien - luan van Cao hoc: chua bao ve Kinh phi thirc hien - Tdng kinh phi dugc cap : lOO.OOO.OOOd, dd: + Nam 2008: 50.000.000 -HNam 2009: 50.000.000 - Da sir dung \ a quyei loan day du Xiic nhan cua ca quan chu tri (ky ghi id ho ILMI, dong dau) Chii nhiem de tai (ky ghi rd ho ten) •HO Hlfu TPl/ONn PGS.TS N^uvc-n Huu Khai ll^lU.JlMii4|in'Jd^^^ SUMMARY REPORT IN ENCJLl SH l.Title: Scientific base of operation of reservoirs system in Red river's upstream for electric generation and water supply preventing drought in downstream Code: QG 07-20 Head of subject: Asso ProL Dr Nguyen Huu Khai Participans: Sc Master Le Thi Hue Master Student Pham Phuong Chi Bach Vu Thi Huong Bach Dinh Xuan Truong Aim and Contents 1) Aim Baseline analysis of low flow characters of Red river system and functions of reservoiis in Red river's upstream, researching scientific base ot reservoirs system operation for eleelric generation and water supply preventing drought in downstream 2) Contents - Analysis of low flow characters of Red river system - Evaluation of real situation oi water supply of reservoirs in upper Red river for electric generation and preventing drought in downstream - Research of scientific base of system operation for electric generation and water supply preventing drought in dow nslream - Pulling solutions of system operation for eleelric generation and water supply prcNcnling drought in downstream, Results I) Science and tecnology - Analysis ol low How characters o\ Red river sxstem special in \ears - Lxaluation ol real situation ol water suppiv toi- jljetne geneialion LIIUI preventing drought in dow nsiivam of reservoirs m upper Ked nver - Use o{ HLC-RLSSIM model to route rc^ervoiis system and MIKI^il to route ck)wnstream of Red river and from those results was detmed scientilie base of system operation for electric generation and water supply preventing drought in downstream - Some solutions of system operation for electric generation and water supply preventing drought in downstream were puted 2) Scientific papers and seminar - papers were Published: -f- paper in Hydrometeorologic Journal N" 11/2007 -^1 paper in Journal of science, VNU N" IS Vol 2.V2009 -H paper will publishing - Participation in seminar of science, HUS in 2008 - students were participanted in seminar of science HUS in 2008 3) Education - Support to doctor student - bachelor thesiss in 2008 - Master thesis Subject budget - The fund has been used up and liquidated MUC LUC NOI DUNG TILING MO DAU ; A TONG QUAN CAC CONG TRINH LIEN QUAN T I VAN DE NGHIEN CUU B TINH CAP THIET VA Y NGHIA CUA DE TAI CHUONG I: DIEU KIEN Tl/NHIEN VA XA HC)! LLOJ \ LC SONG HONG 1.1 DIEU KIEN TUNHIEN 1.1.1 Vi tridialy 1.1.2 Dac diem dia hinh 1.1.3 Dac diem dia chat, thd nhuang 1.1.4 Dac diem hau 1.1.5 Dac diem lop phii thuc vat 1.1.6 Dac diem ihuy van va tlnh hinh nghien cixu 1.2 TINH HINH KINH TEXA HOI 1.2.1 Tinh hinh kinh te xa hoi 1.2.2 Quy hoach phat triC-n kinh le-.\a hoi dong bang song Hong den nam 2010 va 2020 ^ CHUONG II: DiftN BIEN DON(; CHAY MLA CAN HE T H N ( ; ' ^ 7 8 10 15 15 18 SONGHONG 2° 2.1.TINH HINH HAN H N TRONG NHUNG NAN G.AN DAY 2.1.1 Tinh hinh 2.1.2 Mot so nguyen nhan gay han han nhung nam qua 2.2 DIEN BIEN MUC NU6C 2.3 DIEN BIEN DONG CHAY 2.4 NHAN XET CHU()N(J III: THUC TRANG CAP NUOC PHAT DIEN \ A C HONG H.AN CUA HO CHL^A H().\ BINH -TUYEN QUANC; 3.1 HE THONG HO CHUA \ A CONG TRiNH C.\P NL'OC HA DU TREN LUU VyC SONG HONG 3.1.1 He Ihong ho chua 3.1.2 Cac cong trinh cap nucic du 3.2 NHIEM \ i ; CUA HO CHUA HOA BINH \ A J[}\T.\ QUANG 3.2.1 Nhicm \u ciia ho chua Hoa Binh \a TuyC-ii Quang 3.2.2 Tien do lii \ii Dong Xuan 3.3 THUC iR.\NG C.AP NUOC I'll.AI DIEN \ A CHONG HAN TRONG NHLNIG NAM G.\N DAY 3.3.1 Thuc tiang cap luroc ph;il clicn 3.3.2 Sir phoi hop cap nuoc phal dicn \a choiig han 20 20 21 21 24 36 ^^ ^^ 38 40 41 41 44 44 44 46 3.4 NHAN XET CHUONG IV: CO SO KHOA HOC DIEU H.ANH HE THONG HO CHCA 4.1 CAC PHUONG PHAP TINH T O A N DIEU TIET VAN' HANH HO CHUA 4.1.1 Phuong phap don gian 4.1.2 Phuong phap toi uu hoa 4.1.3 Phuong phap mo phong 4.2 M O T S O M HiNH MO PHONG VAN HANH HE THONG HO CHUA 4.2.1 Mo hinh HEC-5 4.2.2 Mo hinh HEC-HMS 4.2.3 Mo hinh MIKE 11 5.2.4 Mo hinh HEC-RESSIM 4.3 CO SO KHOA HOC DIEU HANH HE THONG HO CHUA HOA BINH VA TUYEN QUANG 4.3.1 Dong vao ho chiia 4.3.2 Nhu cau sir dung nuoc 4.3.3 Dien loan he thong ho chua bang mo hinh HEC-RESSIM 4.3.4 Dien loan luu bang mo hinh MIKEl 4.4 D.ANH G\.\ ANH HUONG VAN HANH CUA HO HO.A BINH V.\ TUYEN QUANG 4.4.1 Lira choii kich ban van hanh 4.4.2 Ket qua dien loan va phan tich 4.5 NHAN XET CHUONC; V: DE XU.AT MOT SO GIAI PH.AP DIEU HANH HO CHUA HOA BINH-TUYEN QUANG 5.1 KHA N A N G G I A T A N G CAP NUOC CUA C.AC HO CHUA 5.2 PH.AN CHIA THOl KY DIEU TIET 5.3 DE XLiAT QUY TRINH DIEU H.ANH KET lA AN \ A KIEN N(;HI A KET LU.AN B KIEN NGHj lAI LIEU THAM KHAO PHU l.UC 54 ^6 56 56 57 58 60 60 64 64 67 ^1 71 76 77 80 84 84 85 104 106 106 107 108 110 110 113 114 116 PIli; l.UC 4.1: DONG \ A C \ C HO CHUA MUA KIET :()U4-:005 117 Pill' LUC 4.2: X.AN.'iANH RILNCi HO HOA BINH 121 PHI^ LUC 4.3: CAN HANH IIO IIOA BINH VA K AEN Q I A N G KHI TANG 30"n LLONG X.\ '^2 PlIU LLC 4.4: CAN HANH ll(') ll().\ BINH C \ 11 A LN Ql \\(.j Kill CAP \H)C KH.\N TRUONG ^-'"^ MO DAU A TONG QUAN CAC CONG TRINH LIEN QUAN i d l \^AN DH NGHIEN CLlLl Cac ho chua dang duac xay dirng cang nhiem co dang bac thang tren mot nhanh song, c6 dang song song tren nhi^u nhanh hoac ket hop ca hai Nhung m6i ho chua CO chuc nang va bidu boat dong rieng, c6 tac dong khac tdi luu Trong tinh toiin ihiei ke chua ti'nh den hoal dong khai thac d6ng thai ca he thong cho nhieu muc lieu Tren the giai da c6 nhieu cong trinh nghien cuu su dung va van hanh ho chira Cac phuang phap ti'nh loan ho chua da c6 tij lau, nhung chii yeu dua vao cac phuang phap dan gian nhu duang luy tfch hay phuang iruih can bang nuoc Gan day c6 hang loal mo hinh duoc xay dung nham mo phong va phan ti'ch sau hon phuang thuc boat dong cua ho chiia va lac dong cua chiing doi voi luu \uc Cac phuong phap loi uu hoa cung duac phat trien de c6 the van hanh tot nhal cac ho chua O My cac mo hinh SSARR HEC-HMS mo phe^ng hoal dong ciia ho chiia voi lu each la mot phfin su hinh ihanh dong chay ULMT luu \'Ue O Dan Mach c6 mo hinh MIKEli MIKlvBASIN Cling nghien ciiu cac ihanh phan nhu mo hinh SSA\RR va HEC () Eien Xo cu viec nghien cuu dieu liei ho chua duoc nhieu nha khoa hoe quan lam nhu Krilski-Menkel |24 2.*S| Xvanhid/e Plesko\ Gugly Polapov Maliski, Ralkoxich |26| Wo da nghien ciiu ciic phuang phap dieu liet cho cac muc dich khac Cac nuoc khac nhu Trung Quoc Thai Ean Mala>'.\ia cung c6 nhieu cong trhih nghien ciiu \e cae gnu phap khai thac ho chua Tuy nhien cac cong irinh tren chi mai nghien cuu cho lung ho chua rieng le va Ciic muc lieu riemg biel khong nam irong he thong dan day mot so du an da \em \et phuong phap tfnh loan dieu tiei ca he thong h6 chua \'a da thu duoc nhung kel cjua nhal dinh ChiKTng irlnh nghien ciiu \an hanh he ihong ho chua EIS bao gom ho ciuVa lien song chfnh \a 26 ho lien cae nhanh ciia luu \uc Tennssce (TV.\) lu bat dau { P)97) den da Uui duoc nhung kel qua lol dep MtM tlu an khac cung da mang lai hteu cpta la dieu hanh he ihong ho chua bang Texas tlo W^urbs Ralph A ihuoe \'ien Tai ngii\en nuoc Texas \a\ diin^i nam 1*-)S5 \a hoan linen nam 2(Ht7 Jain S.K \a M.K (loel | S| da phal I nen i\u\ irinli \an hanh he ihong ho chiia luu \ ue song Saharmali (.\n Doi e(Mn '^ ho ehua \oi dap \a di\p Iran nham kiem som lu \a ^un^ ^ap nuoc cho eae khu \ ue hiu d^p \a ihaiili Ahmedabad \a (jaiuihmagai" Ngoai o' nhieu luuvc khac eunu danu iiLihien cuu hai ic/in dieu hanh he ihon^ ho eluia Ja muc lieu Tu eae nghieii aiu mo j^luHig hiuu ilcng Lua Im ehu'a da lien hanli xa\ duu^^ qux trinh \an hanh he ihong h ' chua \o\ nhieu imiL lieu kh;ie dap ung nhu cau kinh te xa hoi Dong thai mot he ihong cong nghe ho iro nhu du bao dong vao du bao nhu cau diing nuac di^u khien he thong cung duoc \a\ dung de phuc vu tot han viec dieu hanh ho chua Viet nam da tien hanh xay dung nhidu ho chua tren cac he thong song vai nhi6u muc dich khac Dien hinh nhal la he thong h6 chiia lien he thong song Hong gom cac ho chua Hoa Binh San La Tuyen Quang Thac Ba va tuang lai la Lai Chau Cac ho chua lam nhiem vu chi'nh la cM lu vao mCia lu sau la phat dien cung cap nuac mua can ngoai phuc vu giao thong, du lich nuoi thuy san Kinh nghiem van hanh ho chiia Hoa Binh d6 dieu tiet lil cac nam qua cho thav IK) da gop phan giij' duoc muc nuac Ha Noi khong \ua[ qua 13.()m bao dam an loan cho Ha Noi Nhieu cong trinh nghien cuu ve van hanh ho chiia dieu liel lu da dugc lien hanh nhu quy trinh van hanh ho chiia Hoa Binh cua Ban Chi dao phong chong lut bao TVV (1997) |11 Quyei dinh 80/2007/QD-TTg cua Thu tuang Chinh phu ban hanh "Quy trinh van hanh lien ho chiia thuy dien Hoa Bhih Tuyen Quang Thac Ba mua 111 hang nam ban hanh nam 2()()7"(2| Ngoai mot loal cac nghien ciiu khac \'6 van hanh ho chiia Hoa Binh va he ihong ho chiia Iren cae luu vuc cua Viet nam Cong ty lu van Dien I (1991) da nghien ciiu viec kel hap phal dien chong iu du va khai thac long hop h6 chiia Hoa Binh Vien Quy hoach \a Quan ly niuie f 1991) cung nghiL'ii ciiu \i\p qu\' Irinh van hanh ho chiia Hoa Binh phong 111 \a phal dien NguytMi Van Tirong (1996) nghien ciiu phuong phap dieu hanh ho chiia Hoa Binli chong lu hang nam voi vice xay dung tap ham vao bang phuong phap Monte-Carlo Trmh Quang Hoa (1997) xay dung cong nghe nhan dang 10 Ihuang nguon song Hong phuc vu dieu hanh ho chiia Hoa Binh chong lu du Vien Quy hoach thuy loi va Cong ly Tu \an Dien (2(){)()) da nghien ciiu hieu ich chong 111 \a cap niKie du cua cong irinh ho chiia Dai Thi (nay la Tuyen Quang) lien song Gam Hoang Minh TuyCMi | i 1] da phan tich danh giii vai iio cua mot so ho chiia Ihuang nguon song Hong eho phong chong 111 du Lam Hung Son 110] nghien eiiu ca sO dieu hanh he ihong ho eluia Uiii \Lie song Hong W'on^^ da chu y den viec phan bo dung lieh \a Irinh tu phoi iiop cat ICi cua tirng ho chiia Irong he thong de dam bao an loan ho chiia \a he ihong de dong bang s("Mig Hong Tran Hong Thai (2005) \a Ngo [x Long (2006) buoe dau ap dung thuat toi uu iioa liong van hanh ho Hoa Binh phong ehong hi \a phal dien Neu\en Hiru Khai \a Le Ihi Hue |S] nghien cuu ap dung mo hmh ll-('-KI:SSI\l eho dieu liet hi he ihon*^ ho eluia tren luu \iiv song Huong, eho phep xae dmh trinh tir \a lh"i giafi \an hanh hop i\ cae hn chda bao dam kiem soat lil luu sonu lluxvni: tlai Kim ^nc \a Lhu oe) Le Kim Tiuxen [13] da nghien ciiu co so khoa hoc va thi.rc uin dieu hanh cap nude mua can cho d6ng bang song H6ng Nguyen Tuan Anh [9] nghien ciiu xay dung quy trinh van hanh ho chiia bac thang song Da-song Lo cho bai loan da muc lieu, chii phong, chong lu va To Trung Nghia (2007-2009) nghien ciiu xay dung quy trinh van hanh h6 chiia bac thang song Da-song L6 dieu tiei nuac cho mi^ia kho du song Hong-Thai Binh Nguyen Lan Chau (2008-2009) nghien cuu danh gia tac dong ciia he thong ho chiia tren song Da, Lo den dong chay mija can luu song Hong va de xuat giai phap dam bcio nguon nuac cho du Mot Ban chi dao van hanh cac h6 chiia cua he thong song Hong da duac Ihanh lap Irong phoi hgp cac boat dong quan Irac thong tin du bao van hanh quyet dinh de gop phan dam bao an loan chong lu cho dong bang song Hong-song Thai Binh qua may nam boat dong da cho nhung ket qua va nhung kinh nghiem quy gia Phoi hgp vdi dieu hanh he thong ho chiia mgl loal cac giai phap khac nhu phan lu song Day, cac khu chain lu nhu Tam Ndng, Thanh Thuy Bat Bat Lam Thao Quang Oai va cac Iran su CO cung dugc de xuai nham giam thieu den miic toi da cac ihiet hai ma 111 c6 thd gay cho dong bang du Mot so nghien ciiu da di sau xay dung cong nghe du bao dong vao ho chiia han ngan va vi^i'a nhu Nguyen Viet Thi 114| du bao dong cha>' ngiiy den cac ho chiia thugng nguon song Hong Song song vdi cac nghien ciiu ve van hanh hd chiia mdi sd nghien eiiu ve dien bien ddng chay miia can nhung nam gan day cilng dugc lien hanh Trong sd cd the ke den nghien ciiu cua Tran Thuc (2006) danh gia dit^n bien che dd dong chay song Hdng cua Cue Quan ly nude-Bo Tai nguyen \'a Mdi trudng (2006) ve nhan dinh ve tinh hinh mua can 200."S-20()6 va kien nghi giai phap nham dam bao nude phuc vu cho phat trien kinh te'-xa hdi vung luu song Hdng Ngoai mgl sd nghien eiiu khac cd noi dung [uang tu Cac nghien eiiu tren da eho thay mdt thuc trang dang c|uan ngai cua mi^ia can tren du sdng Wong \a uie dong khong nho cua dieu hanh he thong ho chiia Tuy nhien nhung nghien ciiu \e \an hanh hd chiia \'e mua kiet ehi mdi hinh gan day cd nhilng nghien eiiu vila mtVi hoan cd nghien ciiu mdi cdng bd mot phan ket c|iia I)i) \'ay can cd them nhilng nghien ciiu g^ip phan lam id hon quv liuit ddng chav he thong song \a ap dung cac mo hinh cong nghe moi liong mo phong \an hanh he thdng ho chua Cling nhu cac cdng tiinh thu\ ioi ci' hen quan de c^' duoc ninlng ket luan eo ca so khoa hoc da\ du htvn DAI HOC QLOC GIA HA NOI TRUDNG DAI HpC KJIOA HUG TUNHIEN KHOA LUAN TOT NGHIEP Cir NHAN KHOA HOC HE CHINH QUY NGANH THUY VAN TINH TOAN DIEU TIET HO CHITA HOA BINH BANG MO HINH HEC-RESSIM Nguoi hirOmg dan: PCiS TS Nguyen HCru Khai Nguoi thuc hien: Pham Thi Phuomg Chi ^^H HA NOI - 200' ^K^i^^^ ^ DAI HOC QUOC GIA H A NOI T R U O N G DAI HOC KHOA HOC TUNHIEN KHOA LUAN TOT NGHIEP CL/NHAN KHOA HOC HE CHINH QUY NGANH THUY VAN UNG DUNG MO HINH HEC-HMS DIEN TOAN DONG CHAY MUA CAN HE THONG SONG HONG VE HA NOI QUA HO CHUA HOA BINH ^ iL o I k Ngu5i hirdng dan : PGS.TS Nguyen Huu Khai Sinh vien thuc hien : Vu Thi Huang HA NOI - 2008 I t)AIHOCQL6(:(;iAHAN6l TRUONG OAl HOC KHOA HOC TU NHIEN OE CUONG DE TAI NGHIEN CUU KHOA HOC DAC BIET CAP D.\\ HOC OLfOC GIA HA NOI Nam 2007 NGHIEN CUU CO SO KHOA HOC DIEU HANH HE THONG HO CHUA THUONG NGUON SONG HONG PHIJC v u PHAT DIEN VA CAP NUOC CHONG HAN HADU Ma sd: Q G Cliii lii: I'CJ.S-TS NtiuNcn Hiiu Khai ilA NiJi 2WS 151EU MAU 03/KH(:N/DHQ(;HN (Kem theo quyet dinh sd334IKHCN cua Gidm ddc ngdy 1710112007 DHQGHN) DAI H O C Q U O C GIA HA NQI Dfi CUONG Dfi TAI KHOA HOC DAC BIET/TRONG DIEM CAP DHQGHN Ten de tai Tieng Viet: Nghien cuu ca so khoa hoc dieu hanh he thong ho chiJa Hoa BinhTuyen Quang phuc vu phat dien va cap nuac chong han du Tieng Anh: Sciencific base of operation of Hoa Blnh-Tuyen Quang reservoirs system for electric generation and water supply preventing drought in downstream Ma so: QG 07-20 Thai gian thirc hien: 24 thang Bat dau tii thang nam 2007 den thang nam 2009 De tai thuoc ITnh vuc uu tien; S\s dung hop ly tai nguyen nvi(K De tai c6 triing vol mot de tai da hoac dang tien hanh khong? Khong S.Chij tri de tai (kem theo ly lich khoa hgctheo bieu m^u 02/KHCN/DHQGHN) -Ho va ten: Nguyen Huu Khai Nam -Nam sinh: 1948 -Chuyen mon dao tao: Thuy van -Hoc ham, hoc vi: PGSTS -Chuc vu: Chu nhiem bo mon -Dan vi cong tac: Khoa Khi tuang Thuy van va Hai duang -So dien thoai: 04.8370599(NR)-04.8584943(CQ).Email: Khainh @vnu.edu.vn 'Tom tdt hoat don" njzhien cuu ciia chii tri de tai (cdc chuang trinh, de tai nghien ciru khoa hoc da tham gia, cde cdng Irinh dd cong bd lien quan din phicoiig liu'dng cua di tdi) Thai Ten de tai/cono trinh Tu each I Cap quan ly/nOi cong bo I tham 2,ed \ gian 1985 Ddc dicni thuy vdn Lai chau Chu bicn (2002- Nghien cuu ung dung mo hinh Chu 111 -004) I chieu ti'nh toan dicn hien lone : Da! KTJX Lai Clidn De [at NCCB ^ dan song Hong co lu khan cap 2003 Application 8/2004 of 2-D model to I evaluate changes of river bed Dong gia Mot sd ket qud nghien cuu bien Tac gia tac Journal of Science, VNU.T.XIX.NoJ Tap chi Khoa hgc Ndng dgng long ddn song Hong sau lu nghiep khdn cdp bang mo hinh chieu nong thdn 1/2005 Water balance research in Nam Tac gia Dinh Prov Geology loiirnal Series B, No.25 10/2006 Nghien cuu ung dung mo hinh Dong HEC-RESSIM tinh dieu net hi he gia tac vd Tap chi DHQGHN Phdt Khoa trien hoc thdn^ ho chua Tom tat hoat dong dao tao sau dai hoc ciia chii tri de tai nam gan day Thai gian Ten nghien cuu sinh Ten hoc vien cao hoc 2002 Ha Thi Thanh Van 2004 Nguyen Quan Vmh 2004 Pham Hat Ha 2006 Le Thi Hue 2007-2009 Tran Anh Phuang Co quan phoi hap va cong tac vien chinh ciia de tai (ghi ro ede dem vi vd cd nhan dd duoc mai vd nhan lai mai tham gia de tdi) TY Cone tac vien Ca quan phoi hap Ho va ten Chuyen nganh DHKHTN TS Nguyen Tien Giang Thuv van DHKHTN NCS Tran Anh Phuang Thuv can HVCH Le Thi Hue DHKHTN Vien Khoa hoc thuv loi i ThS Nguyen Dang Giap I Thuy van ! Thu\ Qe>ni 7Thuyet minh sir can thiet hinh du an -Tong quan cac cong trinh va ngoai nuac lien quan tai van de nghien cuu Cac ho chtia dang duoc \ay dung cang nhieu, co dang bac thang iren mot nhanh song, co dang song song tren nhieu nluiih Iioac ket hop ca hai Nhung moi ho chira CO chuc nang va bieu i\o hoat dong rieng, co tac dong khac nhuiu tai luu Trong tinh toan thiet ke chua tinh den hoat dong khai thac dong thai c^ he thong cho nhieu muc tieu iren the giai da co nh.^u cong tnnh nghien cuu su dung va -.an hanh h6 chua Cac phuang phap tfnh toan h6 chua da co tu lau, nhung chu veu d,u vao phuang trinh can bang nuac G^n diy da co hang loat mo hinh duac xay dung nham phan tfch sau han phuang thuc hoat dpng cua h6 chua va tac dong cua chung doi voi hru vuc My, cac mo hinh SSARR, HEC-HMS mo phong hoat dpng cua h6 chua voi tu each la mpt phan sir hinh dong chay tren hru vuc Dan Mach co mo hinh MIKEl cung nghien cuu cac phan nhu mo hinh SSARR va HEC Lien Xo cu viec nghien cuu diiu tiet h6 chiia dupe nhieu nha khoa hpc quan tam nhu Kriiski-Menkel, Xvanhidze, Pleskov, Gugly, Potapov Matiski, Ratkovich Ho da nghien cuu cac phuang phap dieu liet cho cac muc dich khac Cac nuac khac nhu Trung Quoc Thai Lan, Malayxia cung co nhieu cong tiinh ngluen cuu va cac giai phap khai thac ho chua Tuy nhien cac cong trinh tren chi mai nghien cuu cho tiJTig ho chua rieng le va cac muc tieu rieng biet khong n^m he thong, Trong ly thuyct linh toan thuy loi cung chi mai giai thieu ve nguyen ly ti'nh dieu liei he thong ho chua nhirng chua co phuang phap va cac ung dung cu the Gan day mpt so mo hinh da xem xei phuang phap tmh toan di^u tiet ca he thong ho chua nhu HEC-5 (1998) HEC-RESSIM (2003) Dang mo hinh dang duoc cac nuac tren the giai ap dung va da thu duac nhiing ket qua nha't dinh, nhung cong bo it O Viet nam da tien hanh xay dung nhieu h6 chiia tren cac he ttiong song vai nhieu muc dich khac Dien hinh nhat la he thong ho chiia tien he thong song Hong gom cac ho chiia Hoa Binh, Son La, Tuyen Quang, Thac Bii va luang lai la Lai Chau Cac ho chiia na^' lam nhiem vu chi'nh la cat lu vao mua lu ^au i\o la pluit dien cung cap nuac mua can, ngoai phuc vu giao thong, du lich, nuoi thuy san Quy trinh dieu hanh chong lu h6 chiia Hoa Binh duoc xay dung kha chi tiel va hen tuc duac bo sung hoan chinh Mot Ban chi dao van hanh cac ho chiia cua he thung song H6ng da dupe lap Kinh nghiem van hanh ho chiia Hoa Binh de dieu net lu cac nam qua cho thay, no da gop phan giu duoc muc nuoc Ha Noi khong vuot qua 13.0m, bao dam an toan cho Ha Noi Nhing Hong 1.2 Che muc nudc nuia can cua lie thong song H*mg Danh gia thuc trang iioal dong phal dien va cap nuac chong han cua cac hd chira thuong ngudn sdng Hdng tiitng thdi gian qua 2.1 Phan lich vdu cau phat dien Na cap nudc chdng han luu -.ong Hong, 2.2 Danh gia thuc trang lioai dong piuii dien cua cac hd chira 2.3 Danh gia thuc trang lioat ddng cap nudc chdng han cua cac hd chiia 2.4 Danh gia su phoi hap giua phat didn va cap nudc chong han cua cac hd chiia Nghien ciiu ca sd khoa hpc didu hanh he thdng hd chiia Hda Binh-Tuydn Quang cho phat dien va cap nudc chdng han du 3T Nghien ciiu ca so ly thuyetciia bai toan van hanh he thdng hd chira 3.2 Phan ti'ch hoat ddng ciia tirng hd chiia 3.3 Co sd dieu hanh he thdng hd chura cho muc tieu phal didn va ca'p nudc chdng han De xuat giai phap nang cao hieu qua van hanh he thdng hd chira cho muc tidu phat didn va cap nudc chdng han 13 Tinh da nganh va lien nganh cija de tai - De tai lien quan de'n nganh/chuyen nganh nao? + Thuy van + Phat trien tai nguydn nudc + Cong trinh thuy Igi + Dien luc - Tinh da nganh/hen nganh the hidn nhu the nao npi dung va trien khai de tai'!* + Mdi cac cdng tac vien tham gia de tai + Hgp ddng cung ca'p ca sd du lieu 14 Phuang phap luan va phuong phap khoa hpc su dung de tai -H Didu tra khao sat dd thu thap \a xu ly du lieu + Xac suat thdng ke dd xac dmh cac dac iruiig ddng chay va xu 1> cac quan hd + Phan tich he thdng dd xac dmh cac moi quan he giira cac bo phan tren khu vuc nghien ciru + Mo hinh toan dd tim phuong an didu hanh he thdng hd chiia cho muc neu 15 Kha nang su dung co sd vat chat + Sir dung may tinh va mlernet cua Bo mdn, Khoa va DHQGHN irong qua trinh nghien ciiu + Su dun- cac thiet bi vira duoc W'h tai iro irong qua uinh nghien ciiu 16 Kha nang hop tac qudc te + Hap lac da'va dang co: Dai hoc long hop Hvcnce (Ha lan) va DHTH K>oto (Nhal ban) ve dao tao •^Hap uc (In kien : DHTH Kvoto - M u : Ivni vc van hanh he thong hn chua 1/- ^^ac hoat dong nghien ciiu ^ ^ -Nghien ciru ly thuyd't Dieu tra khao sat Xay dung mo hinh thir nghiem ^ Bidn soan tai lieu ^ Viet bao cao khoa hpc ^ Hpi thao khoa hpc *^ Cac hoat dpng khac 18 Ket qua du kien 18.1 Ket qud khoa hoc - Dir kien nhung ddng gdp ciia 6i tai + Dac diem ddng chay mua can he thdng song Hdng + Danh gia thuc trang phat didn va cap nudc chdng han ciia he thdng hd chiia + Ca sd khoa hpc didu hanh hd thdng hd chua vd muc t.du ph/t dien va cap nudc chdng han du + Cac giai phap nang cao hidu qua dieu hanh he thdng ho chiia - ^6 bai bao, bao cao khoa hpc: bai bao 18.2 Ket qud khoa hoc - Cac san pham cong nghe + Bao cao tdng hgp dd tai - Kha nang ung dung thuc te + Oiai phap van hanh hd chiia Hda Binh-Tuydn Quang cho muc tieu phat dien va cap nudc chdng han du 18.3 Ket qud ddo tao + H6 trg mdt luan an tie'n sy + luan van thac sy + khoa luan cir nhan + nghidn ciiu khoa hoc smh vien " Ddi rndi va bd sung cho cac guio trinh./chuyen de: Bd sung cho chuven de cao hoc nganh thuy van '^ Dieu tiet ddng ehay vd ihuy ndng eha he thnu/j Iw cliua^ va cho giao trinh dai hpc 'Tinh todn thuy lai " 18.4 Ket qud tdng cudng tiem lue cho don vi - Bdi dudng nghien ciiu sinh ~ DOi dudng guio \'ien bo mon ve hoal done nghien cuu ^^' Noi dung va tien dd thirc hicn {Cac i.ong vice edn tiiri: khac ihni han thirc Inen ^^^^'^ quddaUlun-c) TT Hoat ddng nghien cuu Thai gian tlurc hien I if tiiang 702007 Den thaim ; i Xay dung dd cuang chi tiet I Dieu tra khao sat thi nghiem va XLT ly ket qua 5/2007 Thu thap va viet tdng quan tai lidu 7/2007 9/2007 Viet bao cao cac chuyen dd - Npi dung 10/2007 11/2007 - Npi dung 12/2007 1/2008 Hpi thao giua ky 2/2008 2/2008 -Bd sung sd lidu/iing dung 3/2008 4/2008 -Tong ket sd lieu 5/2008 6/2008 San pham khoa lux" 5/2007 De cuong chi tiei 6/2007 Ca sd du lieu thu thap va da \\s ly Bao Ciio tdng quan Bao Ciio ciia tirng npi dung So lieu bd suniz Viet bao cao cac chuyen de Biio Ciio ciia iiing - Npi dung 7/2008 8/200S - Npi dung 9/2008 10/2008 Hpi thiio giua ky 11/2008 11/2008 -Viet bao cao tdng hgp 12/2008 1/2009 -Hpi thao irin cudi 1/2009 1/2009 I -Hoan thien bao cao 2/2009 3/2009 , Nop san phiim ' 4/2009 4/2009 Nghiem thu de tai 5/2009 5/2009 ndi dung 1 1 Bao cao tOng hop •' , Bao cao de tai 1 20.Phan bo kinh phi Tl Ndi dung Kinh phi (trieu ddng) Nam thii nhal Nam lhu hai Xay dung de cuang chi tiet 1,0 Dieu tra khao Siit 6,0 5,0 Thu thap va viet tdng quan tai lieu 6,0 i 3,0 -Thu thap tu lieu 5,0 ! 3.0 -Vict tdng quan 1,0 Thud khoiin chuyen m d n -Npi dung -Noi dung I 25,0 j 12,0 3,0 30,0 -Npi dung 18.0 -Noi dunu 12.0 Time siim trang thiei bi -T1iue trang thiet bi -Mua [raim thiet bi n Hpi thiio, nghiem thu - Hpi thao -Nghiem thu Chi khac -Mua van phdng phiim -Quan ly phf -Dien nudc -Phu cap chii nhiem de tai -Chi khac Tong kinh phi 3,0 4,0 2,0 1,0 9,0 2.0 2,0 8,0 2,0 2.0 2.0 2,0 50,0 2,0 2,0 2,0 2,0 1,0 50,0 Tdng kinh phi todn bd Id 100 trieu dong 20 Tai lieu tham khao de viet de cuang - Tai lieu tieng Viet Ban chi dao phdng chdng bao lut TW Quy tiinh van hdnh ho ehua thuy dien Hod Binh vd cdc cong trinh cat gidm Id song Hdng mua In Ha Npi, 1997 Cac ban tin tren truydn hinh VN va bao Nhan dan cac 5, 11-18 va 29/1/2007; 2-15/5/2007 Cdng ty Didn luc Nhung vdn de chdng hi hg du vd phdi dieu cua rdng trinh Hod binh De tai NCKH cap NN Ha Ndi, 1991 Nguydn Huu Khiii, Ld Thi Hue Ifng dung md hinh HEC-RESSIM tinh todn dieu net hi Tap chi Khoa hpc DHQGHN Ha Npi, 2006 5.Lam Himg Son Nghien cuu ca so dieu hdnh he thdng ho chua ihuang nguon song Hong chdng hi hg du Luan an TSKT Ha Noi, 2005 Hoang Minh Tuyen Ddnh gid vai trd cua mot sd ho chita thuang nguon sdng Hdng phan Viet Nam viec phdng hi hg du Luan an TS Dui ly Ha Noi, 2002 Nguydn Van Tui\n, Trmh Quang Hoa , Nguydn Huu Khai Tinh todn thuy hn NXB DHQG, Ha Npi 2001 - Tai lieu tieng Anh Jain S.K Singh V.P Water resuorces systems planing and maiia'^emaiu Elsevier Science B.V Netherlands, 2003 Liu-ry W.Mays Water Resources Engineering ^ ,- r- • urr Di^\'\l^^ U S Army Corps ot Engineer HEC-RLsShn, Use V Manual Version 2.0 September 2003 4.Venter Chow, David R Madment, Larrv W N!c Gravv New York 1996 R^K'']-y()ir S\slcni Sunulaloaii Kes.i am o,./c May, Anpiicd Hydmio':;: \\z Graw-Hill Book Co New York, 1988 Jelezniak G.V Ovcharov Thuy van va LUCU lid! ii Miilxcova, 1984 :/-• h.civ I lie eg ^ v^' Ngayi/thiing riiam 2007 Ngas*|thang Hiam 2007 CHU TRI DE TAI CHL NHIEM KHOA V^ \/ei.^ ^^h Nga)oSjthang nam 2007 THU T R U O N G DON VI ôA Mifu b(cL Ngay^/thiingJ-nam 2007 ' ^ T;»U6NG TRUONG PHE DUYET CUA DHQGHN TL GIAM DOC DHQGHN A H^-CONG NGHE Nguyen Dinh Diic ^a/nt PGS TS