Confronting Dystopia Confronting Dystopia The New Technological Revolution and the Future of Work Edited by Eva Paus ILR Press an imprint of Cornell University Press Ithaca and London Copyright © 2018 by Cornell University All rights reserved Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the publisher For information, address Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850 Visit our website at cornellpress.cornell.edu First published 2018 by Cornell University Press Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Paus, Eva, editor | Container of (work): Ford, Martin (Martin R.) Rise of the robots Title: Confronting dystopia : the new technological revolution and the future of work / edited by Eva Paus Description: Ithaca : ILR Press, an imprint of Cornell University Press, 2018 | “Many of the contributions to this book were presented in an earlier version at the conference, “The future of jobs: the dual challenges of globalization and robotization,” that took place at Mount Holyoke College in February 2016”—Acknowledgments | Includes bibliographical references and index Identifiers: LCCN 2017054549 (print) | LCCN 2017057124 (ebook) | ISBN 9781501719875 (epub/mobi) | ISBN 9781501719868 (pdf) | ISBN 9781501719844 | ISBN 9781501719844 (cloth ; alk paper) | ISBN 9781501719851 (pbk ; alk paper) Subjects: LCSH: Employees—Effect of technological innovations on— Congresses | Industrial relations—Effect of technological innovations on—Congresses | Work environment—Technological innovations— Congresses | Technological unemployment—Congresses Classification: LCC HD6331 (ebook) | LCC HD6331 C687 2018 (print) | DDC 331.25—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017054549 Contents Acknowledgments The Future Isn’t What It Used to Be Eva Paus vii Part I Trends: Job Destruction and Job Creation The Rise of the Robots: Impact on Unemployment and Inequality Martin Ford 27 New Technologies, Innovation, and the Future of Jobs Irmgard Nübler 46 Expanding Job Opportunities through Global Green Growth Robert Pollin 76 Building Sustainable Jobs and Supporting Human Potential in the Care Sector Mignon Duffy 94 vi C o n te nts Part II Risks and Repercussions: Alternative Futures Taskers in the Precariat: Confronting an Emerging Dystopia Guy Standing 115 Automated but Compensated? Technological Change and Redistribution in Advanced Democracies David Rueda and Stefan Thewissen 134 The Crisis of the Liberal International Order: Technological Change and the Rise of the Right Vinnie Ferraro 156 Part III The Global South: Challenges and Opportunities Advanced Manufacturing and China’s Future for Jobs Dieter Ernst 10 Light Manufacturing Can Create Good Jobs in Sub-Saharan Africa Vandana Chandra 181 207 11 Why and How to Build Universal Social Policy in the South Juliana Martínez Franzoni and Diego Sánchez-Ancochea 230 Notes 251 References 257 List of Contributors 281 Index 283 Acknowledgments Many of the contributions to this book were presented in earlier versions at the conference “The Future of Jobs: The Dual Challenges of Globalization and Robotization,” which took place at Mount Holyoke College, Massachusetts, in February 2016 The conference was hosted by the Dorothy R and Norman E McCulloch Center for Global Initiatives and financially supported by Dotty and Sandy McCulloch and the Purrington Fund I am most grateful to the contributors for their collaboration and their willingness to revise and enrich their conference papers I thank my friends and colleagues for the spirited discussions during the team-taught course that led up to the conference: Lisa Ballesteros, Lee Bowie, Calvin Chen, Vinnie Ferraro, Shahruhk Khan, Kirsten Nordstrom, and Audrey St John Special thanks go to Jean Costello and Katherine Harper for their superb assistance in copyediting the book and to Jennifer Medina for her valuable assistance throughout the whole process I am deeply indebted to the outside reviewers for their thoughtful, detailed, and constructive suggestions, and to Frances Benson for her encouragement and guidance Confronting Dystopia .. .Confronting Dystopia Confronting Dystopia The New Technological Revolution and the Future of Work Edited by Eva Paus ILR Press an imprint of Cornell University Press Ithaca and London... of basic income or other ways of redistribution The other two, on the other hand, focus on the opportunities for the creation of new jobs by tackling major global challenges In The Rise of the. .. of social incorporation in the Global The Future Isn’t What I t Us ed to Be 19 North and the Global South They address the impact of globalization as well as those of automation and the new technological