Confronting Dystopia Confronting Dystopia The New Technological Revolution and the Future of Work Edited by Eva Paus ILR Press an imprint of Cornell University Press Ithaca and London Copyright © 2018 by Cornell University All rights reserved Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the publisher For information, address Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850 Visit our website at cornellpress.cornell.edu First published 2018 by Cornell University Press Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Paus, Eva, editor | Container of (work): Ford, Martin (Martin R.) Rise of the robots Title: Confronting dystopia : the new technological revolution and the future of work / edited by Eva Paus Description: Ithaca : ILR Press, an imprint of Cornell University Press, 2018 | “Many of the contributions to this book were presented in an earlier version at the conference, “The future of jobs: the dual challenges of globalization and robotization,” that took place at Mount Holyoke College in February 2016”—Acknowledgments | Includes bibliographical references and index Identifiers: LCCN 2017054549 (print) | LCCN 2017057124 (ebook) | ISBN 9781501719875 (epub/mobi) | ISBN 9781501719868 (pdf) | ISBN 9781501719844 | ISBN 9781501719844 (cloth ; alk paper) | ISBN 9781501719851 (pbk ; alk paper) Subjects: LCSH: Employees—Effect of technological innovations on— Congresses | Industrial relations—Effect of technological innovations on—Congresses | Work environment—Technological innovations— Congresses | Technological unemployment—Congresses Classification: LCC HD6331 (ebook) | LCC HD6331 C687 2018 (print) | DDC 331.25—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017054549 Contents Acknowledgments The Future Isn’t What It Used to Be Eva Paus vii Part I Trends: Job Destruction and Job Creation The Rise of the Robots: Impact on Unemployment and Inequality Martin Ford 27 New Technologies, Innovation, and the Future of Jobs Irmgard Nübler 46 Expanding Job Opportunities through Global Green Growth Robert Pollin 76 Building Sustainable Jobs and Supporting Human Potential in the Care Sector Mignon Duffy 94 vi C o n te nts Part II Risks and Repercussions: Alternative Futures Taskers in the Precariat: Confronting an Emerging Dystopia Guy Standing 115 Automated but Compensated? Technological Change and Redistribution in Advanced Democracies David Rueda and Stefan Thewissen 134 The Crisis of the Liberal International Order: Technological Change and the Rise of the Right Vinnie Ferraro 156 Part III The Global South: Challenges and Opportunities Advanced Manufacturing and China’s Future for Jobs Dieter Ernst 10 Light Manufacturing Can Create Good Jobs in Sub-Saharan Africa Vandana Chandra 181 207 11 Why and How to Build Universal Social Policy in the South Juliana Martínez Franzoni and Diego Sánchez-Ancochea 230 Notes 251 References 257 List of Contributors 281 Index 283 Acknowledgments Many of the contributions to this book were presented in earlier versions at the conference “The Future of Jobs: The Dual Challenges of Globalization and Robotization,” which took place at Mount Holyoke College, Massachusetts, in February 2016 The conference was hosted by the Dorothy R and Norman E McCulloch Center for Global Initiatives and financially supported by Dotty and Sandy McCulloch and the Purrington Fund I am most grateful to the contributors for their collaboration and their willingness to revise and enrich their conference papers I thank my friends and colleagues for the spirited discussions during the team-taught course that led up to the conference: Lisa Ballesteros, Lee Bowie, Calvin Chen, Vinnie Ferraro, Shahruhk Khan, Kirsten Nordstrom, and Audrey St John Special thanks go to Jean Costello and Katherine Harper for their superb assistance in copyediting the book and to Jennifer Medina for her valuable assistance throughout the whole process I am deeply indebted to the outside reviewers for their thoughtful, detailed, and constructive suggestions, and to Frances Benson for her encouragement and guidance Confronting Dystopia 282 C ontri butors Irmgard Nübler is a senior economist and coordinator of the Technology and Jobs Program in the Research Department of the International Labor Organization Eva Paus is the Carol Hoffmann Collins Director of the McCulloch Center for Global Initiatives and professor of economics at Mount Holyoke College, Massachusetts Robert Pollin is the codirector of the Political Economy Research Institute and Distinguished Professor of Economics at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst David Rueda is professor of comparative politics in the Department of Politics and International Relations at Oxford University Diego Sánchez-Ancochea is the director of the Latin American Centre and associate professor in the political economy of Latin America at Oxford University Guy Standing London is professorial research associate at SOAS University of Stefan Thewissen is a postdoctoral researcher affiliated with the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, the Department of Social Policy and Intervention, and Nuffield College at Oxford University Index 1.5 percent solution, 9, 21, 78–86 3D printing, 7, 47, 57, 64, 182, 187, 202 ABB robot project, 193 Acemoglu, Daron, 7, 65 ACET (Africa Center for Economic Transformation), 227 Africa, sub-Saharan, 207–29; agricultural jobs, 208, 213–15, 218–20, 225, 227; demographics, 209, 218, 254n9; digital divide, 15, 16–17, 207–13, 225, 228–29; digital literacy, 211–13, 228–29; economic growth, 4, 14; education, 211–13, 215–16, 219–20, 225–26, 228–29; health care, 98; informal sector, 17, 215, 218, 232; job creation, 218–29; labor market, 213–18; light manufacturing export industry, 16–17, 208–9, 220–26; mobile phones, 210–11; natural resources, 216–17; productivity growth, 217–18, 221–22; service sector, 219; STEM PLUS skills, 208, 219–20, 225–26, 254n10; structural transformation, 14, 216–18, 226; tax revenues, 247; tourism, 219; youth unemployment, 213, 215, 218, 224–29 See also individual countries agricultural sector, 164, 254n5; bioenergy production, 88–89; mechanization and job losses, 28–29, 159; sub-Saharan Africa, 208, 213–15, 218–20, 225, 227 Airbnb, 116, 117, 119, 123, 130 Alaska Permanent Fund, 22, 236 Albaladejo, Manuel, 51 Alibaba, 188 All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, 205 284 I n de x Amazon, 36 Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT), 116–17, 123–24 Anderson, Christopher J., 137 anger, politics of, 168–72 antiglobalization, 165, 170–72 anti-immigration sentiment, 171–72 antitrust laws, 119 anxieties, 12, 13, 18, 67, 166, 169–70 apparel industry, 208, 220–24 Argentina, 238, 246 Arntz, Melanie, 7, 50 artificial intelligence, 18, 28–29, 35–38, 40–43; care work and, 111; high-skill jobs and, 54 artisanal production sector, 55 Asia: East Asia, 14–15, 207, 210, 217, 232; South Asia, 110, 116, 217, 232 See also China; India; individual countries austerity, 162–63 Australia, 167 Austria, 50, 55, 68, 167, 170 authoritarianism, 156, 166, 170, 173 automation: deprofessionalization and, 126–27; job destruction and, 7, 8, 15, 27–29, 47–53, 209; of nonroutine cognitive tasks, 49–51; occupations affected by, 12–13, 35–38, 41, 139–54; platform capitalism and, 126–28 (see also tasking platforms); redistribution and, 12–13, 139–54 (see also redistribution); of routine tasks, 8, 13, 29, 33, 49, 134–36, 139–54 See also computers; driverless vehicles; innovation; New Technological Revolution; robotization; technological change Autor, David, 7, 33, 63, 141 Bahramipour, Bob, 118 Baidu, 188 Balconi, Margherita, 50 Baldwin, Peter, 136 Bangladesh, 208, 223–24 Banister, Judith, 195 Bartels, Larry, 136 Barth, Erling, 11 basic income, 8, 17, 135; UBI (universal basic income), 12, 22, 43–45, 131–32, 231, 235–37, 240, 250 See also guaranteed income; universal social policy BATs (Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent), 188 Belgium, 170 benefits: employee, 119–20, 125–26, 130; social services, 231, 233–34, 237–50; unemployment, 34, 119, 129, 139 Beramendi, Pablo, 137 Bernstein, Michael, 124 Biewald, Lukas, 124 big data, 6, 37, 59 bioenergy, 9, 88–90, 252n4(ch.4) Bivens, Josh, Bolivia, 232, 247 Bolsa Familia, 255n6 Brazil: clean energy economy, 80–85, 89; economic growth, 207; fossil fuel industry, 82; social policy, 236, 246, 248, 255n6 Breman, Jan, 23 Bretton Woods institutions, 162 Brookings Institution, 71 Brown, Phillip, 53 Brynjolfsson, Erik, 6, 163 Burkina Faso, 212 Burundi, 210, 212 Bush, Jeb, 117 California Labor Commission, 120 Cameroon, 210–11 Canada: basic income, 255n5; care workers, 111; craft sector, 57; education, 68; internet access, 210; labor share of national income, 33; labor unions, 35; middle-skill jobs, 62; social services, 242 I n d ex capital goods, expansion of, 20–21, 48, 58–59, 61 capitalism, 19, 22 See also market capitalism; platform capitalism carbon dioxide emissions, 77–78 care sector: automation and, 95, 111; expansion of, 94–96; gendered devaluation of, 10, 99–102, 110–11; global care deficit, 3, 9–10, 105; Global North, 96–99, 102–8; Global South, 96–99, 102–6, 108; labor protections in, 20, 108–9; men as care workers, 101–2; migration and, 102–6; outsourcing and, 95; public policies on, 106–11; racial dynamics, 104–5; unpaid family labor, 94, 100 See also childcare; domestic workers; education; elder care; health care cars and trucks See driverless vehicles Chad, 210, 212 Chakraborty, Shouvik, 88 Chandra, Vandana, 16–17 change, political economy of, 23–24 Chen, Edwin, 122 childcare, 95–96, 111, 250 Chile, 238, 239, 243, 246, 249, 255n2 China, 3, 181–206, 232; advanced manufacturing technologies, 16, 181–84, 187–95, 197, 203; clean energy economy, 80–85; demographic crisis, 181, 183, 186–87, 206; economic growth, 4, 15, 157, 163, 174, 181–87, 207; education, 200–202; employment and labor market, 183–84, 195–205; fossil fuel industry, 82; GPN and GIN integration, 185; income inequality, 198–200; innovation capacity, 192–94; Internet Plus (IP) plan, 16, 182–84, 187–89, 200, 205–6; labor productivity, 222; labor share of national income, 33, 35; liberal economic order and, 162; light manufacturing, 220, 223–24; low-wage labor, 221, 224; “Made 285 in China 2025” (MIC 2025), 16, 182–84, 187, 189–91, 194, 197, 200, 205–6; manufacturing employment, 181, 183, 186–87, 195–96; market value of labor, 156; mobile communications, 188–89; outsourcing to, 7, 30; politics, 170, 173–74, 177; productivity growth, 191; R&D, 185, 192–94; robotization, 41–42, 182–83, 194–95; service industry, 202–5; skills bottleneck, 200–202; tasking platforms, 116; Thirteenth Five-Year Plan, 182, 195–96, 204–5; unemployment, 183, 196, 198–201 Chinese Robot Alliance (CRIA), 193 Citi GPS, 7, 15 Civil Rights Act, 122 clean energy economy, 9, 76–93; education, 90–91; energy supply and demand, 252n3; job creation and, 77–87; job quality, 87–90; skill requirements, 90–91 climate change, 3, 9, 77, 177 coal See fossil fuel industry cognitive tasks, 53–54; automation of nonroutine cognitive tasks, 49–51 college-educated workers, 37, 40, 199 communism, 174 Comoros, 212 compensation, 11, 31, 109–10 See also income; income inequality; wages computers, 6, 29, 33, 49–58, 64, 134–35, 163, 189; IBM Watson, 37; machine learning, 37–38, 40, 49–51 See also artificial intelligence; digitization; information technology; internet access; robotization concierge economy, 119–23, 127 conditional cash transfers (CCTs), 234, 255n6 Conference Board International Labor Comparisons Program, 196 construction jobs, 88–89 286 I n de x consumption, 28, 39–41, 66, 72, 78, 184, 204 Costa Rica, 235, 237, 244–48 craft sector, 55–57, 63–64 creative destruction, CrowdFlower, 124 crowdsourcing, 124 crowdwork platforms, 117 Cummins, Matthew, 248 Cynamon, Barry, 39–40 David, Paul, Dawn Parties, 166 deep learning, 37–38 See also machine learning deindustrialization, 4, 14–15, 42, 183, 184, 186, 205 demand: consumer spending and, 40–41; policies for increasing, 20–21 democracy, 160, 162; universal social policies and, 238–39 Democratic Republic of the Congo, 211 Deng Xiaoping, 192 Denmark, 55, 61, 140, 210 deregulation, 13, 162 De Vries, Gaaitzen, 61, 254n7 De Vries, Klaas, 254n7 De Wispelaere, Jurgen, 240 digital tasking platforms See tasking platforms digitization, 1, 4, 18, 207–9 See also artificial intelligence; computers; Information and Communication Technologies (ICT); internet access; New Technological Revolution; technological change Dinka, 170 discrimination laws, 122, 129 displaced workers, 91–92 Domar, Evsey D., 197 domestic workers, 20, 95, 102–6, 108–9 Domestic Workers’ Bill of Rights (Massachusetts), 20, 108–9 Dorn, David, 141 driverless vehicles, 6, 36, 58, 59, 252n2(ch.2) Duffy, Mignon, 9–10, 20–21, 165 Dutch Disease, 217 dystopias, policy responses to, 2, 18–24 See also public policies East Asia See Asia Ebay, 126 e-Choupal, 213, 254n5 Eco, Umberto, 170 Economic Commission of Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), 237 economic development, 14–15, 134–35 economic growth, 4, 14; China, 4, 15, 157, 163, 174, 181–87, 207; consumer spending and, 40–41; United States, 40, 157, 174, 175; universal social incorporation and, 234–35, 254n2(ch.11) See also productivity growth economic insecurity, 2, 4, 12, 13, 18, 115, 129, 131, 135; right-wing politics and, 166, 174 ecotourism, 219 education, 95–96, 111, 231, 239, 250; basic income and, 43–44; in Global South, 98–99; job creation and, 67–71, 74; sub-Saharan Africa, 211–13, 215–16, 219–20, 225–26, 228–29; United States, 43–44, 68, 71 Educational Attainment Structure (EAS), 67–71 Edwards, Lawrence, 185 Egypt, 170 Elance, 124 elder care, 95–97, 111, 252n2(ch.2) elites: political influence of, 160, 168; right-wing politics and, 156; selfinterest, 13, 24, 160–61, 169, 174 El Salvador, 220, 236, 244, 245 emigration See migration employees: benefits and legal protections, 119–20, 122, 125–26, 129–30; I n d ex classification of, 129–30; on-call, 125, 131; working conditions, 20 employment: technological revolution and, 1–14, 46–48 See also job creation; job destruction; occupations energy efficiency, 9, 78 See also clean energy economy Enlightenment, 66 Ernst, Dieter, 16 Estonia, 50 Ethiopia, 208–10, 219–24 Europe, 3; politics, 166, 170–72, 174; R&D, 192 See also individual countries European Social Survey (ESS), 13, 142, 145 European Union, 33, 171, 176 Facebook, 29, 128 Fair Labor Standards Act, 20, 22, 109 family work, unpaid, 94, 100 fascism, 157, 170, 174 fast-food industry, 36 Fazzari, Steven, 39–40 FedEx, 129 Felipe, Jesus, 251n5 Ferraro, Vinnie, 13–14, 24 Filgueira, Fernando, 238 Filmer, Deon, 227 financial crisis, 39, 41, 67, 167, 169, 237 See also Great Recession (2007–2009) Finland, 23, 50, 167, 175, 255n5 flexible schedules, 125, 131 floriculture, 219 Flying Geese model, 226, 227 footwear industry, 208 Ford, Martin, 6, 8, 21, 76, 135, 163 fossil fuel industry, 9, 77–83, 90–93 Foucault, Michel, 122 Fox, Louise, 254n6 fragmentation: global value chains, 60–63; of production, 47–48, 51–53; in social policies, 242–44, 249–50 287 France: education, 68; labor market, 50; labor share of national income, 33; occupational structure, 61; politics, 166, 169, 170, 172; tasking platforms, 116 Fraunhofer Institute, 193 Freedom Foundation, 119 Freedom Party, 167 Freelancer.com, 124 freelancers, 11, 118, 120 See also precariat; taskers Freelancers Union, 118 Freeman, Richard, 11, 23 Frey, Carl Benedikt, 6, 7, 15, 38, 50, 163 Friedman, Milton, 22, 235 Fromm, Eric, 66, 166 Fukuyama, Francis, 157 full employment, 21, 92–93 G20, 237 Galbraith, John Kenneth, 22, 235 Gambia, 212 Garrett-Peltier, Heidi, 88 Gartner, 128 Gates, Bill, 23 GDP (Gross Domestic Product): 1.5 percent for clean energy, 9, 21, 78–86; digital tasking platforms and, 116; United States, 39–40 General Motors, 29–30 Germany: clean energy economy, 80–81, 83–85; craft sector, 55, 60, 63–64; Cyber-Physical Systems, 188; education, 68; fossil fuel imports, 83; Industry 4.0, 16; innovation capacity, 192; labor market, 50; labor share of national income, 33; manufacturing employment, 196; occupational structure, 61; politics, 170; robotization, 61, 194; routine occupations, 140; tasking platforms, 117, 131; unions, 35 Ghana, 210–11, 217 Ghani, Ejaz, 226 288 I n de x gig economy, 12, 118–19, 129 See also taskers Gilens, Martin, 160 Glass-Steagall Act, 162 Glenn, Evelyn Nakano, 105 Global Innovation Networks (GINs), 185 globalization, 2–4, 35, 51, 156–59; Africa and, 209; antiglobalization, 165, 170–72; developing countries and, 14–15; global migration and, 103–6; hyperglobalization, 23; inequality and, 30; market value of labor and, 163; outsourcing and, 54; regulation of, 19–20; right-wing politics and, 13 Global North, 2–14 See also individual countries Global Production Networks (GPNs), 185 Global South, 2–4, 14–18, 41–42 See also Africa, sub-Saharan; Asia; China; India; Latin America; individual countries global value chains (GVC), 60–63 global warming See clean energy economy; climate change Google, 29–30, 59; DeepMind software, 38 Goos, Maarten, 141–42 Gordon, Robert, 6, 251n1 Goswami, Arti Grover, 226 government regulation See regulation Graetz, Georg, 60 Gramsci, Antonio, 156, 168 Great Depression, 162, 173 Great Recession (2007–2009), 34–35, 39–40, 159–62, 166–67, 192 Greece, 163, 166 green energy See clean energy economy Greenspan, Alan, 160–61 Gregory, Terry, 50 guaranteed income, 43–44, 175, 235 See also basic income Hacker, Jacob, 136 Hamon, Bent, 22 Handy, 122 Hangler, Frank, 210 Harris, Seth D., 129 Harttgen, Kenneth, 254n8 Hayek, Friedrich, 22 health care, 45, 95–98, 111, 231, 250, 252n2(ch.2); nurses, 104–6, 252n2(ch.2); social policy and, 239–40, 243–46 See also care sector Heintz, James, 88 heteromation, 128 high-skill jobs, 33, 37, 38, 164; complexity of, 54–55 See also skills Hitler, Adolf, 170 Hobbes, Thomas, 169 Hochschild, Arlie, 105 Honduras, 220 Hong Kong, 68 Hoy, Chris, 23 Huber, Evelyne, 238 Hungary, 167 hyperglobalization, 23 IBM, 188; Watson computer, 37 IC design engineers, 201 Iceland, 166 ICT Development Index, 213 illegal financial flows, 248, 255n10 immigration, 170, 171–72; policies on, 104, 109–10 See also migration Immigration Nursing Relief Act (1989), 104 income: distribution of, 174, 236; expansion, 58; guaranteed, 43–44, 175, 235; risks and redistribution preferences, 135, 138–40, 148 See also basic income income inequality, 11, 21, 28; in China, 198–200; redistribution and, 149–52; rise in, 159–65; technological change and, 135–36, 149–52 independent contractors, 119–20, 129–30, 132 See also taskers India: clean energy economy, 80–83, 85–87; economic growth, 207; fossil fuel industry, 82; informal sector, 232; I n d ex internet access, 213; liberal economic order and, 162; light manufacturing, 220; market value of labor, 156; political parties, 167; service sector, 226; tasking platforms, 116 Indian Tobacco Company, 254n5 Indonesia: clean energy economy, 80–82, 84–87; fossil fuel industry, 82 Industrial Advance Index (IAI), 68–71 Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), 55, 59 Industrial Perception, Inc., 35–36 industrial revolutions, 1–2, 24 See also automation; digitization; New Technological Revolution; technological change Industry 2.0, 190 Industry 3.0, 16, 190 Industry 4.0, 16, 52, 58, 193 industry-related crafts sector, 55 inequality: in care work, 99–102; globalization and, 30; politics and, 18, 136; reduction of, 73–74 (see also poverty reduction; universal social policy); social incorporation and, 233; social services and, 250; technological revolution and, 2–4, 10–14; United States, 11, 27–28, 30, 38–41, 159–65, 251n4; wealth, 159–65, 176 See also income inequality informal sector, 4, 17, 250; bioenergy sector, 89; in Global South, 232; subSaharan Africa, 17, 215, 218, 232 Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), 46; outsourcing and, 52–53 information technology, 29–30, 134–35 See also computers innovation, 1, 47, 52; capacity for, 192–94; country-specific impact on jobs, 60–64; in craft sector, 56–57; social capabilities for, 64–73 See also process innovations; product innovation insourcing, 52 institutional changes, 8–10 See also public policies 289 Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), 233, 237 International Labour Office, 90 International Labour Organization (ILO), 53, 65, 68, 142, 237 International Monetary Fund, 162–63, 176, 186, 245 International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO)-88 level, 141–42 internet access, 209–13, 228–29 Internet of Things, 16, 47, 58, 187, 189–90 See also Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) Internet Plus (IP) plan, 16, 182–84, 187–89, 200, 205–6 Iraq, 173 Ireland, 102 Israel, 167 Italy: education, 68; labor share of national income, 33; occupational structure, 61; political parties, 166–67; robot density, 61 Japan: education, 68; innovation capacity, 192; job losses, 61; labor share of national income, 33; manufacturing employment, 196; occupational structure, 61; robotization, 194–95; tasking platforms, 117 JD.com, 188 job, definition of, 53 job creation, 4–14, 47–48; clean energy economy and, 77–87; labor productivity growth and, 86–87; product innovation and, 57–59; renewable energy and, 76–87; social capabilities for, 64–73 job destruction, 4–10, 47, 164, 168; automation and, 7, 8, 15, 27–29, 47–53, 209; competitiveness and, 48–53; complexity of jobs and, 53–57 Johnson, Lyndon, 27 Jordan, 220 Karabarbounis, Loukas, 10, 32–33 Karunanethy, Kalaivani, 248 290 I n de x Katz, Lawrence F., 11, 57 Kellow, Nebil, 215 Kenya, 208–9, 211, 218–19 Keynes, John Maynard, 2, 21, 44–45, 72, 197 Kharas, Homi, 226 King, Martin Luther, Jr., 22 Kiva Systems, 36 knowledge systems, 65–67, 73 Korea See South Korea Korpi, Walter, 233 Krueger, Alan B., 11, 129 Kuznets, Simon, 159 Kuznets curve, 159–62 labor brokers, digital, 117, 120, 127; regulation of, 12, 20, 128–32 See also tasking platforms labor market, 50; China, 183–84, 195–205; sub-Saharan Africa, 213–18; United States, 4, 8, 33, 50, 100–101, 141 labor protection laws: for care workers, 20, 108–9; for employees, 119–20, 122, 125–26, 129–30; for taskers, 128–32 labor share of national income, 32–33, 163–64 labor unions See unions Lall, Sanjaya, 51 Lamy, Pascal, 19 Latin America: economic growth, 4, 14; mobile phones, 210; social policy, 232, 236, 238, 243, 246, 254n2(ch.11); tax revenues, 247 See also individual countries Lauder, Hugh, 53 Lawrence, Robert Z., 185 Lederman, Daniel, 227 left-wing politics, 238–39 legalzoom.com, 126 leisure, 58–59, 72 Le Pen, Marine, 172 Lesotho, 208–9, 223–24 Levy, Frank, 63 Lewis, Sinclair, 170 liberalism, 157–62, 166–77 See also neoliberalism licensing, occupational, 126, 130–31 Li Keqiang, 196, 204 Lin, Justin Yifu, 227 livelihoods, 2, 5, 10, 16, 67; care workers, 96, 99–101, 106, 109, 111; fossil fuel industry, 91–92 living standards, 77, 111, 133, 169, 251n1 Los, Bart, 61 low-income countries, 4–5, 14 low-income groups, 234 low-skill jobs, 33, 38, 61 See also skills low-wage jobs, 36, 221, 224 Luddite revolt, 1, 27, 164 Lyft, 36, 116, 119, 130 machine learning, 37–38, 40, 49–51 Ma Kai, 189 Malawi, 210, 212 Mali, 212, 232 Maloney, William Francis, 227 Manning, Alan, 141–42 manufacturing jobs, 4, 190–91, 196, 203; insourcing of, 52; renewable energy equipment, 88 See also Africa; China Manyika, James, 11 market capitalism, 23, 67, 72, 157–58 market embeddedness, 24 market expansion, 57–59 market value of labor, 156, 163; political consequences of decline in, 165–68 Martínez Franzoni, Juliana, 17–18, 107, 175 Marx, Karl, 134, 158 materialism, 66 Mauritius, 235, 244 Mayer, Jane, 169 Mazzocchi, Tony, 91–92 McAfee, Andrew, 6, 163 McGuire, James, 238 I n d ex McMillan, Margaret S., 254n8 Medallion Financial, 119 Meltzer-Richard model, 138, 147 mental health services, 95–96, 111 meta procedures, 53–54 Mexico, 42 MIC 2025 (“Made in China 2025”), 16, 182–84, 187, 189–91, 194, 197, 200, 205–6 Michaels, Guy, 60, 141 Michelin, 59 Microsoft Kinect, 36 microtaskers, 123–24 middle-class income, 159 Middle East, 210 middle-skill jobs, 33, 62 See also skills migration, 232; of care workers from Global South, 10, 102–6, 109–10 See also immigration minimum wage, 20, 251n6 Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), 189–91 Mishel, Lawrence, 7, 132 Mkandawire, Thandika, 235 mobile phones, 210 mobile robots, 54, 57 monitoring methods, 121–22 Moore’s Law, 28 Morocco, 220 M-Pesa, 208 multiculturalism, 13, 167 multinational organizations, 103–5 Murnane, Richard J., 63 Muslims, 170–71 Mussolini, Benito, 170 Myanmar, 170 Namibia, 228, 236 Narrative Science, Inc., 37 National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), 186, 195 National Health Insurance Corporation, 245 national identities, 158, 165–72 nationalism, 156, 165, 172–74, 176 291 National Right to Work Legal Defense Foundation, 119 Natraj, Ashwini, 141 natural gas See fossil fuel industry Neiman, Brent, 10, 32–33 neoliberalism, 3, 13, 23, 161–62, 168–69, 172, 176 See also liberalism Nepal, 220 Netherlands, 23, 167, 171, 255n5 New Deal, 162, 175 New Technological Revolution, 1–5; China and, 181; Global South and, 14–18, 41–42; risks and repercussions, 10–14; trends in job destruction and creation, 5–10 See also artificial intelligence; automation; computers; digitization; information technology; innovation; robotization; technological change New Zealand, 68 Niger, 210 Nigeria, 106, 210, 217 Noguera, José A., 240 Nordic countries, 254n2(ch.11) North American Free Trade Agreement, 167 Northern Ireland, 171 Norway, 167 Nübler, Irmgard, 8–9, 21, 163 Nuer, 170 nurses, 104–6, 252n2(ch.2) Obama administration, 79, 190 Obamacare, 45 occupational structure: changes in, 61–63, 140–42; dismantling, 125–27; hierarchy, 55 occupational training, 74 occupations: automation and, 12–13, 35–38, 41, 139–54; definition of, 53; licensing, 126, 130–31; new, 58 oDesk, 124 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), 10, 50, 163 292 I n de x Oesch, Daniel, 140, 141, 147 official development assistance (ODA), 103, 247–48 oil See fossil fuel industry on-call employees, 125, 131 online courses, 128 online marketplaces, 116 See also tasking platforms Oracle, 188 O’Rourke, Kevin H., 157–58, 165, 173 Ortiz, Isabel, 248 Osborne, Michael A., 6, 7, 15, 38, 50, 163 outsourcing: care sector, 95; to China, 7, 30; deprofessionalization and, 126–27; in service sector, 51–54 Page, Benjamin I., 160 Pakistan, 220 Palmer, Joachim, 233 parental leave policies, 110 Paris Climate Change Summit (2015), 77 Parkdale Mills, South Carolina, 164 patents, 193 PayPal, 126 PeoplePerHour, 124 People’s Party (Swiss), 171 Perez, Carlota, 71–72 Pew Research Center, 166 Philippines, 103–5, 167 Philippines Overseas Employment Administration (POEA), 104 Pierce, Justin R., 168 Pierson, Paul, 136 Piketty, Thomas, 159 platform capitalism, 12, 115–33 Polanyi, Karl, 23, 67, 72, 158, 177 Polanyi, Michael, 50 polarization: information technology and, 141; labor market, 33, 56–57, 74, 100–101 policy architectures, 17–18, 231–32, 240–43, 249 politics: of anger, 3, 168–72; declining market value of labor and, 165–68; redistribution and, 137–38, 152–55, 174–77; right-wing, 12, 13, 24, 156–57, 170–72, 174 See also public policies Pollin, Robert, 9, 20–21, 88, 165 populism, 171–72, 174, 239 Portugal, 68 poverty reduction, 74; basic income and, 44, 236; in Global South, 14; renewable energy and, 78; taxes and, 23 See also basic income; universal social policy Pozzali, Andrea, 50 precariat: politics of, 165–68, 172; tasking platforms and, 12, 18, 115, 133; universal transfers and, 235; vulnerability of, 133 See also taskers Pribble, Jennifer, 238–39 Pritchett, Lant, 14 private property, 177 procedural knowledge, 50, 53 process innovations, 47, 74 product innovation, 48; job creation and, 57–59, 71–72; social capabilities for, 64–73 productivity growth, 6, 11; in China, 191; innovation and, 57–60; job creation and, 86–87; redistribution and, 74; in sub-Saharan Africa, 217–18 products, demand for, 20–21 See also capital goods professionalism, erosion of, 122–23, 126 public good, 160–61, 169, 176 public policies, 3, 8–10, 18–24; on care work, 106–11; on globalization, 19–20; on increasing demand, 20–21; job creation and, 72–75; on redistribution, 153–55; on redistribution of work, 21–22; on social incorporation, 22–23; in subSaharan Africa, 224–29; transitional support for displaced workers, 91–93; on working conditions, 20 I n d ex See also basic income; redistribution; regulation; universal social policy Putin, Vladimir, 167 putting-out system, 118 racial dynamics in care sector, 104–5 racial identity, 166 ratings, of taskers, 121–22 R&D, 52 Reagan, Ronald, 30 recessions, 34 See also Great Recession (2007–2009) redistribution, 12, 24, 134–55; automation of routine occupations and, 12, 13, 139–54; basic income and, 231 (see also basic income); income inequality and, 149–52; material self-interest and, 138–39; politics of, 136–39; tax increases and, 174–76; technological change and, 135–36, 145–49, 152–55; universal social incorporation and, 233; of work, 21–22 regulation, 162; of globalization, 19–20; of labor brokers, 12, 20, 128–32 Rehm, Philipp, 148 renewable energy See clean energy economy Renta Dignidad, 247 Republic of Korea See South Korea reshoring, 209, 224 Restrepo, Pascual, retail jobs, 36 retrofits, clean energy, 81, 84, 87 Ricardo, David, 197 right-wing politics, 12, 13, 24, 156–57, 170–72, 174 Robinson, James A., 65 robotization, 1, 4, 7–9, 18, 28–29, 35–38, 41–43, 46–47, 76, 93, 165; China, 41–42, 182–83, 194–95; crosscountry studies on, 60–63; in light manufacturing, 224; market value of labor and, 163; mobile robots, 54, 57; right-wing politics and, 156 293 Rodrik, Dani, 19, 42, 158, 183, 184, 205, 226 Rohingya, 170 Roosevelt, Franklin, 45, 175 routine tasks, automated, 8, 13, 29, 33, 49, 134–36, 139–54 RTI index (routine task intensity), 141–52 Rueda, David, 13, 145, 147–49, 165 Russia, 167, 170, 173, 207 Rwanda, 217 Saez, Emmanuel, 30 safety net, 160 See also universal social policy Salomons, Anna, 141–42 Sánchez-Ancochea, Diego, 17–18, 175 Sanders, Bernie, 167 Sassen, Saskia, 103, 105 Schott, Peter K., 168 Schumpeter, Joseph, 5, 65 Schwab, Klaus, 1, Scotland, 171 self-driving cars See driverless vehicles self-employment, 12, 53, 73, 89, 120, 245 Senegal, 212 Sennett, Richard, 56 services, demand for, 20–21 services sector, 204, 208, 217, 226 sharing economy, 116–17, 130, 132 Sharing Economy UK, 130 Singapore, 192, 210 skills: automation and, 37; clean energy sector, 90–91; craft sector, 55–57; differentials, 11; high-skill jobs, 33, 37, 38, 54–55, 164; low-skill jobs, 33, 38, 61; middle-skill jobs, 33, 62; training in, 128 See also STEM PLUS skills smart machines, 54 Smith, Adam, 161 social assistance, 240 social capabilities: concept of, 65–67; for innovations and job creation, 64–73 social cohesion, 234 294 I n de x social contract, 2, 5, 24, 75, 129 social incorporation, 17, 22–23, 230–33, 240, 246–50 social insurance, 240 socialism, 157 social media, 128 social protection floor, 237–39 social services, 17–18; government funding for, 111; private provision of, 242–46; stigmatization and, 234 See also universal social policy social transformation, 73 societal learning, 65–67, 72–73, 75 solar energy, 88–90 Solow, Robert, Solt, Frederick, 150 Song, Jae, 11, 251n4 South See Global South South Africa, 248; basic income, 236; clean energy economy, 80–87; economic growth, 207; fossil fuel industry, 82 South Asia See Asia South Korea: clean energy economy, 80–81, 83–85; economic growth, 185; education, 68; fossil fuel imports, 83; health insurance, 243, 245; innovation capacity, 192; internet access, 210; manufacturing employment, 196; occupational structure, 61–62; robotization, 194–95 Soviet Union, 162 Spain: clean energy economy, 80–81, 83–85; education, 68; fossil fuel imports, 83; labor market, 50; occupational structure, 61; routine occupations, 140 spending, consumer, 38–41 Spitz-Oener, Alexandra, 141 Sri Lanka, 220 Stalin, Joseph, 158 standardization, 49 standard of living See living standards Standing, Guy, 12, 20, 23, 165 STEM PLUS skills, 208, 219–20, 225–26, 254n10 Stephens, John D., 238 structural adjustment, 103, 162 structural transformation, 14, 48, 68, 73, 107, 216–18, 226 sub-Saharan Africa See Africa Sumner, Andy, 23 Superfund, 91 Susskind, Daniel, 58 Susskind, Richard, 58 Sustainable Development Goals, 21 Sutton, John, 215 Sweden, 110 Switzerland, 23, 55, 68, 140, 171, 175, 255n5 tacit procedures, 50 Taiwan, 185, 192 Tanzania, 211, 217, 219, 221, 224 taskers, 115–33; cloud labor, 123–25; concierge services, 119–23, 127; on-call employees, 125, 131; as precariat, 115, 133 (see also precariat); wages, 125, 127; working conditions, 20, 119–22 tasking platforms, 12, 115–18; occupational dismantling and, 125–27; regulation of, 12, 20, 128–32 TaskRabbit, 11, 116–17, 119–22, 130 tasks: nonroutine cognitive, automation of, 49–51; routine, automation of, 8, 13, 29, 33, 49, 134–36, 139–54 taxes, 23; increases in, 174–76; social services and, 246–49 taxi drivers, 116, 119, 122–23 Taylorism, 53, 58, 124 technological change: economic development and, 134–35; jobs and, 46–48, 60–64, 164–65; market forces and, 48–59, 73–75; as occupational risk, 139–44; social capabilities for innovation and job creation, 64–73; waves and cycles of, 71–72 See also artificial intelligence; automation; computers; innovation; New Technological Revolution; robotization; tasking platforms I n d ex Tencent, 188 terrorism, 170 Thailand, 247, 248 Thewissen, Stefan, 13, 145, 147–49, 165 Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (China), 182, 195–96, 204–5 Thompson, Derek, 21 Timmer, Marcel P., 61, 62, 254n7 Tobin, James, 235 Togo, 210, 212 totalitarian regimes, 166, 170, 174 tourism, 219 transfers, 235–38 “Triple Revolution Report,” 27 Trump, Donald, 167–68, 170, 172–73 Turkey, 167 Uber, 11, 12, 36, 116–17, 119–23, 128, 130 UBI (universal basic income) See basic income Uganda, 211, 217, 219 Uighurs, 170 unemployment, 7–8, 16, 21; in Africa, 213, 215, 218, 224–29; basic income and, 231 (see also basic income); in China, 183, 196, 198–201; disability and, 34; in Latin America, 232, 240 (see also Latin America); in preindustrial era, 164; productivity and, 59; redistribution and, 147, 149; technological progress and, 27–28, 41, 67, 197 unemployment benefits, 34, 119, 129, 139 unions, 10, 30, 35, 119, 126, 128–29, 164, 251n2 United Kingdom (UK): care workers, 106, 111; Competition and Markets Authority, 123; education, 68; European Union and, 176; internet access, 210; job losses, 61; labor market, 50; occupational structure, 61; politics, 166, 171; robot density, 61; routine occupations, 140; tasking platforms, 130 295 United Nations, 95, 237, 247 United Nations Development Programme, 109 United Nations Environmental Programme, 91 United Nations Security Council, 173 United States: Advanced Manufacturing Partnership, 190; agricultural sector, 28–29, 159, 164; automation, 209; Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 71, 195–96; childcare, 98; clean energy economy, 79–87; consumer spending, 38–41; craft sector, 57; debt levels, 39, 41; deindustrialization, 186; disability program, 34; economic growth, 40, 157, 174, 175; education, 43–44, 68, 71; Federal Reserve, 41; fossil fuel industry, 79, 82; Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 39–40; guaranteed income, 43; health care, 45, 96–97, 104; Industrial Internet Consortium, 188; inequality, 11, 27–28, 30, 38–41, 159–65, 251n4; innovation capacity, 192; internet access, 210; job creation, 34; job losses, 7, 61, 168; labor force participation rate, 33–34; labor market, 4, 8, 33, 50, 100–101, 141; labor protections, 109, 119 (see also labor protection laws); labor share of national income, 32–33; life expectancy, 97; Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation, 191; manufacturing employment, 196; manufacturing research, 203; middle class, 28; minimum wage, 20, 36; occupational structure, 61; on-call employees, 125; platform capitalism, 116–17, 126–28, 130–31; politics, 166–73; productivity growth, 6, 31–32; recessions, 34–35 (see also Great Recession); reshoring, 209, 224; robotization, 61, 194–95; service jobs, 29; social services, 242; technology and employment, 27–41; unions, 251n2; wages, 31–32; women in care work, 100–102 296 I n de x universal basic income (UBI) See basic income universal social policy, 5, 17–18, 22, 230–50; funding, 246–49; in Global South, 230–38; outside option, 242–46; policy architectures and, 17–18, 231–32, 240–49; politics and, 238–40; social and economic reasons for, 233–35; transfers and services, 235–38 UpCounsel, 124 Upwork, 118, 124 Uruguay, 232, 236–39, 243–45, 249 Valenzuela, Samuel, 254n2(ch.11) value-added chain, 181 van der Linden, Marcel, 23 Van Reenen, John, 141 vehicles See driverless vehicles Viale, Riccardo, 50 Vidan, Gili, 210 Vietnam, 208, 217, 220–24 wages: care workers, 100–102, 107, 109–11; inequality in, 11 (see also income inequality); low-wage jobs, 36, 221, 224; robotization and, 60; stagnant, 4, 8, 13, 31, 132–33 See also compensation; income Washington Consensus, 14, 162 Watson computer (IBM), 37 wealth inequality, 159–65, 176 See also income inequality; inequality welfare payments, 175 Wenger, Albert, 231 Williamson, Jeffrey G., 157–58, 165, 173 women: clean energy jobs, 89; unpaid care work by, 10, 99–102, 231 “work-for-labor,” 115–16, 127–28 working conditions, 18; for care workers, 109–10; declining work hours, 58–59; flexible schedules, 125, 131; public policies on, 20; technological revolution and, work-sharing policies, 44 World Bank, 15, 162–63, 233, 237 World Trade Organization, 19, 162 World War I, 166, 173, 174, 177 World War II, 166 xenophobia, 156, 167, 176 Xi Jinping, 167 Yeates, Nicola, 105–6, 109 Yeats, William Butler, 177 Yellow Cab drivers, 119 Zambia, 210–12, 221, 228 Zhang, Jinkang, 51 Zhuhai High-Tech Zone, 193 Zierahn, Ulrich, 50 Zimbabwe, 106 Zipcar, 130 Zuckerberg, Mark, 24 .. .Confronting Dystopia Confronting Dystopia The New Technological Revolution and the Future of Work Edited by Eva Paus ILR Press an imprint of Cornell University Press Ithaca and London... of basic income or other ways of redistribution The other two, on the other hand, focus on the opportunities for the creation of new jobs by tackling major global challenges In The Rise of the. .. of social incorporation in the Global The Future Isn’t What I t Us ed to Be 19 North and the Global South They address the impact of globalization as well as those of automation and the new technological