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TAI CHINH-TIEN TE Diin bien chi so gia hdng tieu dung tCf nann 1976 den nam 2008 (Tiep theo va het) V HUNG DUNG Lai suat n g a n h kinh doanh phai chiu lai suat cao Tfl n a m 1988 den 1992 cd r a t nhieu loai lai suat khac n h a u (cd che da lai suat): lai s u i t tien gfli k h d n g ky b a n , cd ky b a n t h a n g cd ky b a n t h a n g cd ky b a n n a m cho bp gia dinh va cho to ehflc kinh te Lai s u a t cho vay thi qui dinh ap d u n g cho tflng n g a n h : cac n g a n h san x u a t nhfl nong nghiep, cdng n g h i e p difdc vay vdi lai s u a t t h a p , cac Tfl n a m 1993, lai suat cho vay goin lai t h a n h loai: lai s u a t cho vay vdn ed dinh va cho vay vo'n Iflu dpng, den nam 1994 doi t h a n h cho vay n g a n b a n va vay dai han Ngoai cac loai lai s u a t cd b a n noi tren, d khu vflc ndng t b d n ndi cac Quy tin dung boat dpng dupe ap d u n g lai s u a t tin dung d ndng tbdn cao hdn eae loai lai suat ndi tren BANG 5.1: Lai s u a t n g a n h a n g tii n a m 1988-1995 1988 12 Thiing 1989 1990 1991 1992 12 12 12 9 2,4 2,1 2,1 1.2 12 3,5 3,5 2.3 1993 1994 1995 0,7 0,7 1,4 1,4 2.1 2,1 Lai suiVt lien giri: Khdng ky han -hd gia dinh Ky han thang - ho gia dinh ~i Lai sui'it cho vay (*'): 2.5 10,5 3,7 2,4 3,3 3.3 2.5 2.5 10,5 3,8 2,7 3 2.8 2.6 3.6 10,5 3,9 2,9 3,7 3.7 3,2 2.7 Chenh lech LS giri va cho vay (a) -3 -1.5 -3,3 -1.3 -0,5 -0.5 0,5 0.6 0.7 0,7 Lam phat (b) 7,2 7,3 2,7 7,7 4,8 3.4 0,2 0.9 0,2 4,7 4,3 -3,7 -1.3 0.1 2,1 0.5 1,2 3,2 1.1 -5 -1,8 -0.4 2,6 1.6 1,2 1.9 -6,9 -0,4 -2,6 0,8 0,8 1,5 Ndng nghiep Cdng nghiep va giao thdng Thuong mai va du lich Lai suai thuc ( c): Tiei kiem thang ho gia dinh Qio vay: - Cdng nghiep va giao thdng - Vdn cd dinh -4.2 Ni^iian: Viet Nam chudng trinh phat trien ngiinh tai chinh Nxb The gidi, thang 3-19 95va Nien giam thdng ke 1995 (a) Tiet kiem ky hqn thdng ciia ho gia dinh va cho vay cong nghiep vd giao thong; (b) Lam phdt trung binh hdng thdng quy; (c) Lai suat thiic diia tren lai suat danh nghia tai audi moi quy vd lam phdt trung hinh hdng thdng quy Vi du lai suat tien gid thdng cila thdng nam 1989 Id r27c lam phdt cudi ciia quy ndy Id 7,3'/, nhU vay lai suat thiic ciia tien gid thdng ho gia dinh la 4,77 Ldi suat cho uay vdi cong nghiep vd giao thong Id 10.5%, lam phdt la 7,3% nen ldi sud't thiic ciia vay khdi cong nghiep, giao thong Id 3,2% (*) Ldi suat tinh theo thdng, nam 1994 vd 1995 thay doi thdnh cho vay ngan han 2,17i, cho vay ddi hqn 1.7% thdng Vo Hung Dung, TS., VCCl Can Thu 21 Diin bien chi so gia Tfl cudi nam 1988, ed sfl thay dd'i chinh sach ve lai s u i t mot loat cac giai phap ebdng lam phat Thang 12-1988, lai suat cd ky han thang cho hd gia dinh dUdc nang len la fi"o lai sua't cho vay nang len d mfle u-un^ binh la 3% (bang 5.1) Den thang 91989 lai suat tiet kiem khdng ky ban nang leu 9"n ed ky ban la 12"o: lai suat cho vay dupe thdng nhat la 10,5% Den thang 121989, lai suat tien gfli dUde dieu chinh giam xu'mg eon 5% vdi khdng ky ban va 9% vdi ky han thang eho bp gia dinh; lai s u i t vay liiam xap xi 4% thang Dieu gay ngac nhien la cd ehe lai suat buy dpng lai cao hdn so lai suat eho vay ma mflc chenh lech cd the den gap ddi Lai suat tiet kiem thay ddi cung ed che het sflc thoang la viec chd phep lap eae quy tin dung cap xa, phUdng Vdi ed ehe la liing bang loat quy tin dung ddi de buy ddng vdn, nhUng chi cd the cho vay long vdng de roi sau mot thdi gian thi dd be, vd nd Lai suat tang da thu hut manh tien vao ngan hang, kiem che lam phat nhUng tao nen hien tUdng dd' xd giii tiet kiem de hUdng ldi NgUdi vay rat n g i n ngai, vi khdng boat ddng kinh doanh nao cd dUdc ty suit ldi nhuan bIng vdi lai suat tiet kiem Den nam 1992, lai suat tiet kiem giam xud'ng mflc thap hdn nhieu sd trUde dd, da gay phan flng manh me ciia nhflng ngfldi sd'ng nbd tien gfli tiet kiem thdi ky lai suat la lung Cudi cung thi do' vd hang loat cung xay D i u tien la eae quy tin dung pbUdng xa, tiep la hang loat edng ty tfl cap buyen den cap tinh, nha may xi nghiep vd nd, pha san nhUng khdng cd luat pha san xU ly Tfl 12.000 doanh nghiep nha nUde giam eon tren 6.000 la mdt eupc tai eau true Idn sau eupc chien ebdng lam phat nhflng nam 90 BANG 5.2: Lai s u a t tien giii va cho vay C^'c t h e o n a m ) 1994 1995 1997 1996 Thiing {^') 1999 1998 12 12 1.2 8,7 6,2 4,9 4,6 5,4 6,2 6,2 Tioi kiem lining 18.2 18,2 8,7 7.4 8,1 9,1 10 10 \'a> ngan Man 28,3 28,3 16,1 12,7 12,7 15 15,4 14 \ ay trung w'l dai han 22 22,4 17,5 14 14 15 16 14,7 9,5 9.5 8,5 8,5 8,5 7,5 7,5 13,9 14,3 3.7 3,6 3,8 3,8 9,4 9,1 Tien gui ilc);inli nghiep Cho \'a\ ngoai te Lain phat \i;iithi: Worid Bank (*) Cac nam 1994,1995 va 1996 lai suiit cudi ky Cudi nam 1995 Ngan hang Nha nflde ban hhnh Quyet dinh sd 381/QD-NH (28-12-1995) theo dd lai suat tran trd cdng cu dieu hanh chinh sach tien te cd che da lai suat dupe thu hep Quyet dinh cung difa mot quy (tinh niw nhieu tranh cai lue dd la tv le chenh 22 lech gifla lai suat buy ddng vdn vdi lai suit cho vay khdng qua 0,35% thang Nam 1996, Ngan hang Nha nUde ban hanh quyet dinh dieu chinh lai suat, eae ngan hang thUdng mai phai lien tuc dieu chinh bien dp ciia moi Ian dieu chinh ehi tfl 0.1-0,2"o Nghi4n cuV K'nh 14'sd 373 - Thing 6/2009 Diin bien chi sd gia BANG 5.3: T o m t a t l a i s u a t t r o n g c a c n a m 1999-2001 1999 2000 2001 Thiing nam 10 10 Lai suai co ban (a) 1,1 1,15 0.85 0,75 0.725 0,65 0.6 Lai suai tai cap vdn 1 0,5 0,4 0,4 Lai suai cho vay USD (b) Dir trO bat bupe (%) 7,5-8,5% nam SIPORE + 5 SIPORE + N!,'//w(.Tapchi Ngan hang; Thdi bao Kinh te Viet Nam: Viet Nam-The gidi sd cac nam 1997-1998 1998-1999, 1999-2000, 2000-2001 va 2001 -2002 Ldi suat tinh theo thdng, tril ldi suat ngoai te tinh theo nam (a) ldi sud't Ngan hdng Nhd niidc_ qui dinh Ldi sud't trdn dp dung tii nam 1995 Ldi sud't dp dung d khu viic nong thon cao hon so khu viic thdnh thi Cdc hdp tdc xd tin dung co ldi sud't cho vay cao gdp riidi so vdi cdc ngan hdng thMng mai Tii nam 2000 dp dung ldi sud't cd ban Ldi sud't cdc ngan hdng thiidng mat diidc +0,3% vdi cho vay ngan hqn, 0,35% vdi cho vay ddi hqn, nam 2001 thi +0,5% vdi cho vay ddi hqn (b) Ldi suat dola My tinh theo nam Ldi suat cho vay theo ldi suat tren thi trUdng Sigapore + 1,57c vdi cho vay ngan hqn, +2,5% vdi cho vay ddi hqn cdn 0,6%)/thang vao t h a n g 10 n a m 2001 Lai s u i t cho vay dfldc gifl theo bien dp +0,3% vdi n g I n b a n va 0,5% vdi dai b a n N a m 1999 vdi l l n dieu c h i n h lai s u a t t r i n cho vay, l l n dieu c h i n h lai s u a t t a i cap vdn m a moi l l n nhfl vay bien dp cung chi 0,1%) Lai s u a t t i e t k i e m cflng dfldc dieu c h i n h giam vad cud'i n a m : vdi tien giii k h d n g ky b a n chi eon , % / t h a n g , ky b a n t h a n g , % / t h a n g , ky b a n t h a n g 0,45%/thang, ky b a n n a m 0,55%/thang Lai s u i t tien giii g i a m nhflng td'ng h u y ddng t a n g vao k h o a n g % so cud'i n a m 1998 N a m 2004, da cd d a u hieu lam p h a t trd lai, mac du vay lai s u a t van difdc gifl on d i n b ^ T h a n g 7-2004, N g a n h a n g N h a nfldc q u y e t d i n h v I n gifl n g u y e n lai s u i t ed b a n la 7,5% Dfl trfl b i t bupe t a n g len la 2% dd'i vdi tien giii cd ky b a n (12 den 24 thang) va 5% dd'i vdi tien giii t h d n g ky b a n va ky b a n dfldi 12 t h a n g T h a n g 8-2000, N g a n h a n g N h a nfldc c h u y e n s a n g dieu h a n h t h e o lai s u a t cd b a n , h a n g t h a n g cdng b d mflc lai s u a t ed ban, lai s u a t t a i cap vo'n va lai s u i t t a i chiet k h a u Cac n g a n h a n g thfldng m a i quy d i n h eae mflc lai s u a t cho vay t h e o bien dp xoay quanh lai s u i t cd b a n vdi bien dp +0,3% T a n g trfldng k i n h te n a m 2004 dat 7,8%, l a m p h a t 9,6% chUa vUdt qua ngUdng cua chfl so Dieu n a y da lam eae n h a dieu h a n h chinh sach tien te p h l n nao yen t a m Sau n a m 2005, n a m 2006 l a m p h a t ebi cdn 6,6% c a n g l a m cho mfle dp tfl tin eae n h a hoach dinh chinh sach tien te t a n g len Nhflng dieu N a m 0 , t i n h h i n h k i n h te t h e gidi dien bien phfle t a p Cue Dfl trfl h e n b a n g H e a Ky (FED) 11 l l n c i t g i a m lai s u a t tfl mfle 6,5% d i u t h a n g cdn 1,75% n a m vao t h a n g 12, dfldc cdi la t h a p n h a t t r o n g lich sfl 40 n a m ciia My Lai s u i t cd b a n d d n g Viet N a m t r d n g nftm giam l l n tfl 0,75% trflde t h a n g 3-2001, Nghi4n cOv Kinh 14 so 373 • Thang 6/2009 Xem (VietNamNet 30/06/2004 (G/^T+7)): Trai vdi dir doan ciia nhiSu ngudi, miic lai suai ca ban bang dong Viet Nam duac Ngan hang Nha nudc cdng bd chieu qua (29/6) da khdng thay ddi Theo quyet dinh ciia Ngan hang Nha nude, miic lai suai duac ap dung tir 1-7-2004 la 7.5'7r/nam (0,625%/thang) Miic lai suat da khdng ddi ke tu 1-1-2004 23 Dien bien chi so gid cd the da gay nen nhflng trd ngai trdng quyet sach diin bien nam 2007 phfle tap hdn la nhflng gi xay nam 2006 so vdi nam 2005 va 2004 Thang 6-2007, lam phat d mfle 5,2 % (sd vdi thang 12-2006), thi d i u quy 3, Chinh phu ehi thi kiem che td'c dp tang gia Mac du vay, thai dp lac quan va tfl tin cua eae nha hoach dinh v I n rat vflng ehle va dUdng nhu chUa san sang cho bat cfl giai phap du manh nao cho kich ban lam phat xay Trong eupc bpp bao gifla thang 82007, ngUdi dflng d i u Van phdng Chinh phii khang dinh chu trUdng day manh d i u tu de dat td'c dp tang trUdng cad hdn td'c dp tang gia, Chinh phu cd du nguon lUe de kiem soat va khdng cd chuyen tang ehfl sd' cua CPI nam 2007 Vdi nhflng y kien cho r i n g lam phat cd the len den 1011%) Phe Thdng dd'c Ngan hang Nha nfldc khang dinh niem tin vao cac giai phap va ca eUde la lam phat se khdng the ed ehfl sd^ Nhflng ket qua la chfl sd'I Ngay tfl cac thang d i u nam 2008, CPI da tdng vpt thi van de c6 Uu tien kiem che lam phat hay khong vIn cdn dang ban thao Den cud'i thang 3, dau thang thi hang loat bien phap dUdc dUa vfla manh tay vfla dot ngpt Thang 3-2008, lai suat ed ban dUde nang tU 8,25% len 8,75%, thang la 12% va cudi thang la 14% Du trfl bat bupe dfldc nang len ll%o vdi tien gfli khdng ky ban (va cd ky ban dudi 12 thang) va 5% dd'i vdi tien gfli co ky ban 12 den 24 thang Lai suat ciia so'tien giii la l,2%o nam (sau ndng len 3,6% rdi 5% vd 10%) Phat hanh tin phieu bat bupe 20.300 ty dong, vdi cac ngan hang thUdng mai lai suat 7,8%) nam Ap dung mflc tran cung tin dung va phfldng tien toan dfldi 30% ca nam Dieu chinh ty gia (13.139 VND len 16.461 VND/USD, ndi rpng bien dp ty gia tfl +/-1% +/- 2% (quyet dinh vao gifla thang ma dong tien Viet Nam dang bi sut gia manh, cd lue len den tren 19.000 VND/USD) BANG 5.4 : Di§n b i e n lai suat cd ban nam 2008 Trirac thang Cac thang Thang 11 Thang12 10 Dau thang Cudi thang Dau thang Cudi thang 12 14 13 12 11 10 8,5 Lai suai eo ban (*) 8,25 8,75 Lai suai tai cap vdn 6.5 7,5 15 14 13 12 11 9.5 Lai suai tai chiS^t kha'u 4,5 13 12 11 10 7,5 Nfiiion: Ngan hang Nha nude (*; Lai suai: % theo nam Cac ngan hang thuang mai cho vay theo lai suai ca ban + biSndd tdida 150% Lai suat huy dpng ciia mdt so' ngan hang vao cud'i thang d i u thang cung len den 20% nain lai s u i t cho vay dflpc khd'ng che d mflc 21%/nam Vdi lai suat nay, Hiep hpi ddanh nghiep d phd' Ho Chi Minh da kien nghi lai s u i t cho vay Tfl thang 9, bat d i u eua qua trinh giam lai suat, luc d i u la than trpng vdi bien dp mdi lln giam 1%, den thang 11 ed lln cIt giam, thang 12 cung vdi l l n cat giam ma Ian vao cud'i thang bien dp len den 1,5%) 24 Cflng nhfl l l n lam phat cud'i nhflng nam 1980, lai suat nang cao, ty gia dao dpng t h I t thfldng thi hang Idat ddanh nghiep gap khd khan Xem Khdng the cd kich ban lam phat sd' (VietNamNet 00:41' 14-8-2007 (GMT-i-7) Ngay 13-8, Van phdng Chinh phii da td chiic hop bao wi Trien khai Chi thi va kei luan cua Thu tudng ve mot sd bien phap cap bach ki6m che tdc dd tang gia thi tructng vdi su tham dir day du ciia dai dien cac bd nganh chii lire "eupc chien" chdng tang gia Nghien cuv Kinh 14'so 373 • Thing 62009 Dien bien chi so gia 'Ldi sud't Viet Nam vd mdt sd niidc BANG 6.1: Lai s u a t n g a n h a n c u a Viet N a m va m o t so nfl6c 2000 1,7 0,6 7,2 3,8 1,8 12.9 11.5 4,2 2,8 2,7 -0,8 Vict Nam CPI Thai Lan CPI Philippin CPI Malaixia CP] Inddnexia CPI Han Qudc CPI Trung Qud'c CPI 2003 6,3 1.3 1,8 3,5 3,8 8,3 6,8 3.5 2,7 1,2 2004 6.7 7,8 1,2 2.8 3,8 1.5 7,4 6,1 3,6 3,6 3.3 3.9 2005 7.8 8,3 2,6 4,5 7.3 7,6 3,78 9,2 10,5 3.3 2,7 3,3 1.8 2006 7.9 7.5 4,6 4,7 7,8 6.2 3.53 3.6 1.6 15.4 4,2 2,2 3,3 1,5 2007 8,9 12,6 3,8 2,3 2.8 3.31 -) 8,4 6,9 4.8 2.5 3.3 4.8 Ni>ii6n: The World Bank: East Asia Testing Time Ahead, April 2008 Viet Nam: lai suai tidn giri thang, lai suai cho vay thudng cao han khoang Y/c Bang tren che thay lai suat cua Viet Nam cao hdn sd vdi hau bet cac nflde khu vflc ty lam phat cflng cao hdn Viet Nam cd the so vdi Inddnexia nflde cd ty le lam phat cao va bat on thdi gian khung hoang kinh te Chau A BANG 6.2: Lai s u a t Viet N a m va m o t so nxidc Hoa Ky EU Nhat Ban Trung Qudc AnDd Inddntixia Malaixia Philippin Thai Lan Vict Nam Nam -2009 3-4/2009 1/2009 0,25 1,5-1,25 7.75-7,5 4,75 1,5-1,25 0,1 5,31 5,5 8,75 2,5 Nam 2008 10/2008 12/2008 1.5 0,25 3,75 2,5 0,3 0,1 6,66 5,31 6,5 9,5 9,25 3,25 5,5 3,75 2.75 13 8.5 Lam phat cuui ky 2009 2008 1,6 3,1 1.7 2,9 0.5 1,9 5.5 4,5 5.1 9,2 7.5 12 3.3 7,2 4.3 12,2 3.5 11 25 Ni^iioii: www Icit/insen.info; Lam phat cudi ky theo IMF World Economic Outlook 2008 Lai s u i t cac ngan hang thfldng mai tren la eua eae Ngan bang Trung fldng mdi nfldc Lai s u i t chd vay cua cac ngan hang thfldng mai thfldng cao hdn Vdi Viet Nam ty le cao Hon ed the len den ISO"?;) Cudi thang 3, diu thang 4-2009 nhieu nflde da tiep tuc giam lai suat • Ldi sud't qud cao Nhin ehung lai suit ma cac ngan hang cho doanh nghiep vay la rat cao Dinh cao lai suat Nghien cuv Kinh 14 so 373 - Thing 2009 vao cud'i nam 1989 len den 230"'(i nam! Nhflng nam sau dd giam xud'ng cdn khoang SS^o/nam (1990-1993) va 28% nam (1994-1995) Trong thdi ky bi anh bfldng khung hoang kinh te Chau A, lai suit giam nhflng trung binh cung d mfle 14-15% (1998-1999) nam nam thap nhat cung 11% Diu nam 2008, lai suit ed ban len H^/'o thi lai suit ngan hang thfldng mai len den 21%, vao cud'i nam luc dieu chinh giam eon 8,5";) thi lai suit eae ngan hang cung 25 Dien bien chi so gia d vao mflc 12,5% nam Vdi lai s u i t trung binh 12-15% nam, Iflc nen kinh te van hanh binh thfldng thi khd cd the cd ldi nhuan boat kinh doanh ngoai trfl kinh doanh ngan hang Dieu dd giai thich vi cd qua nhieu bo sd xin lap mdi ngan hang, va cd qua nhieu ngan hang tfl ehflc nang ngan hang ndng tbdn dfldc chuyen ngan hang thfldng mai va chuyen ludn tru sd chinh Cac tong cdng ty, tap doan nha nfldc va cac "dai gia" tfl nhan tranh thu de xin cd ngan bang tap doan cua minh Lai suit cao ehi xuat bien tfl cao diem ebdng lam phat cac nam 1989-1992 Trflde dd thi lai suit ngan hang vo'n rat thip, gpi la lai suit bao cap bdi ehi danh eho doanh nghiep nha nflde (va Chinh phu) Lai suit cao nhieu nam sau lam phat nam 1986 lien quan den chinh sach gifl lai suat tiet kiem cao Nhflng nguyen nhan Idn nhat la chi phi ciia ngan hang rat cao, nii ro tin dung Idn va ndi lo sd ciia cac nha hpach dinh chinh sach ve sfl sup ciia he tho'ng ngan hang Cac nguyen nhan tren cd van de lich sii va ket cau vdn cho vay cua he thdng ngan hang qud'c doanh: tap trung cho cac doanh nghiep nha nfldc va cho vay theo chi dinh Nhflng tinh binh hien da thay ddi, nhieu ngan bang mdi dfldc lap, ed ca chi nbanh cua ngan hang nflde ngdai Lai s u i t cao la mdn qua tang cho cac ngan bang mdi, ngan hang nfldc ngdai, ngan hang lien doanh Nd kich thich manh viec xin lap ngan hang mdi Lai suat cao la rao can dd'i vdi cac doanh nghiep nhd tiep can vdn nhflng lai kich thich dd vdn vao cac nganh d i u ed nhfl chflng khdan, bat ddng san T a c d o n g ciia gia lu'ofng thtfc den chi so gia t i e u d u n g 3.1 LUdng thuc vd thUc pham HINH 7: Chi so gia h a n g tieu d u n g , chi so' gia lifofng thvfc v a c h i so gia thufc p h a m 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 — • — CPI • Chi s6 gi^ iLTcyng thi.i'C — A — ChF s6 gi^ thyc ph^m Nguon: Nien giam thdng ke Lam phat cao nhflng nam 80 ed phln rat Idn tfl gia Ifldng thflc San x u l t yeu kem la nguyen nhan d i u tien eua tinh trang eang thing, nhflng tinh trang e l t khue Iflu thdng hang hda da day gia lua gao len cao d khu vflc thi va d mien Bic gia lua lai rat thap d DBSCL'' Trong nhflng nam cang thing dd, viec dieu hang lua gao de mien Bac khdng bi cai ddi la cdng viec he trpng cua Chinh phii Hang nam, vao luc thu hoach rp lua gao d DBSCL, Chinh phu cii mdt phd thii tfldng 26 thfldng xuyen Id viec dieu hanh chuyen chd Ifla gao tfl Nam Bic Mac dfl tap trung nhfl vay nhflng tinh trang thieu gao d mien Bac van thfldng xuyen xay O phd Ho Chi Minh va eae tinh mien Nam, vao nhflng thang cao diem dd boat dpng xuat khau thfldng bi dinh dd'n flu tien tau bien Bang chung la san lirpng lirong thi/c (qui thdc) binh quan dau ngudi tiing (nam 1977 la 250 kg, nam 1980 la 268 kg, nam 1985 la 304 kg va 1989 la 332 kg) nhimg gia Ilia gao van lien tuc tang Nghi4n cuv Kinh teso3'/3 - Thing 6/2009 Dien bien chi so gia cho viec chuyen chd lua gao Gia nhan cdng hoc xep gia van chuyen cung tang vpt len, nhflng gia lua gao d DBSCL van thIp va ndng dan cflng khdng may tha thiet vdi viec trdng lua Tfl kbi chinh sach quan ly Ifldng thflc thay ddi cho phep xuat k b i u gao d mien Nam, lua gao dfldc Iflu thdng binh thfldng gifla cac tinh vdi eae tinh va tfl Nam Ble thi tinh trang cang thang giam dim, san xuat tang vpt vii cflng khdng can phai ed mdt phd thu tfldng va tbfl trudng Bp Giao thong tuc trfle dieu tau va cung khdng phai nhap khau gao Nam 1989 lan dau tien Viet Nam xult khau 1,4 trieu tan gao thu ve tren 300 trieu USD Cd Ilia gao dfl tbfla de xuat khau da giam bdt ap lue tang gia va cung cd them ngoai te de can ddi nhap khau phan bdn va mot so'bang tieu dung thiet yeu ap Iflc tang gia giam bdt CPI nam 1989 tang 34,7% thap hdn rat nhieu so vdi mfle chfl so cua nam trflde dd • San liidng liidng thiic gidm, gid lua gqo tang, CPI tang Hai nam 1990 va 1991 CPI tang trd lai d mfle 67"o cflng cd nguyen nhan tfl mat mfla d mien Ble (san ludng Ifldng thfle vflng DBSH nam 1990 giam gin 650 nghin tin) Binh quan mdi nam nam san Ifldng thflc chi tang 300 nghin tan so nam 19S9 va tinh tren diu ngfldi cbi dat 325 kg thap bdn Cdn so'332kg cua nam 1989 Cac nam 1992, 1993, san Ifldng Ifldng thflc gia tang manh trd lai (binh quan tren mot trieu tan mdi nam) gia lua gao giam, CPI chi tang 17,5%o va sau dd la 5,2% thIp hdn nhieu so cac nam triide Nam 1994, xay tinh hinh lu lut va mat mfla \ai he thu d DBSCL nhieu hdp dong xuat khau bi dinh hoan khdng cd bang giao, CPI rrong eae thang euo'i nam 1994 va cho den diu nam 1995 da tang rat manh CPI nam da tang trd lai vdi chu' so' • San liidng liidng thiic tdng, gia lua gqo gidm, CPI gidm Cac nam!996 den 2000 san Ifldng ludng thflc tang rat manh, trung binh 1.7 trieu tan nam, rieng nam 1996 tang 1,8 trieu tan, nam 1999 tang gan 2,4 'rieu tan Trong dd xuat khiu tang trung binh ehi vao khoang 270 nghin tan/nam Tac ddng eua xuat khiui lua gao den giii nfldc phan anh kha ro ke tfl Viet Nam tham gia xuat khiui va chiu tac dpng gifi ca cflng nhfl tinh hinh cung clu thi trfldng lua gao qudc te 3.2 Anh hiidng ciia xuat khau lua gqo HINH 8: X u a t khiiu gao, gia x u a t k h a u va gia lua t r o n g nfldc h a n g thang tii n a m 1989-2000 1000 goo 800 700 • • • " V \ 600 500 400 300 200 ICO ;;;iio m^ SA l u a n g XK — - Gia XK gao 25% t> Gia thoc licp hoi xuai khau hrang liurc \'iet Nam tac gia thu thap va \u l\ Xu.it kluiii: 1,000 i.in giii Mirii: L'.SD/taii; gia liui lOddng/kg thfldng tap trung vao luc (c.-ic thang Cae phan tich cho thay, thdi diem mfla khd den dau mfla nufa) Khi thcd vu vu Ddng Xuan gia lua gao nflde thap ddng xuan qua di gia lua luit dau nhiVh len gi.-i xuat khIu thap, Ifldng xuat khau Idn /V!,'(/('/;' Nghien CM Kmh le so 373 • Thing 2009 27 Dien bien chi so gia gia xuat khau cung tang d i n cho den cud'i nam Cae cdng ty xuat khau ehay ehi tieu sd Ifldng va tin dung cung thfldng tranh thii ky hdp dong b;'\n tfl diu vu, eae nha nhap khau cung hieu rd ban che ve kho chfla va tin dung eua cac doanh nghiep nflde neu khong ed hdp dong va tin dung tbfl (L/C) nen cung dat gia mua thap vao luc Thieu he thdng kho chfla va tin dung cho ndng dan cung nhfl cho cac cdng ty kinh doanh lua gao la diem yeu keo dai sud't thap ky 90 Hai diem \-e'u eho den can ban van chfla khac phiic dfldc khong chi ban ehe nang Iflc canh tranh nganh lua gad ma cdn thiet hai cho xuat khau va ndng dan HINH 9.1: San xuat, xuat khau, gia xuat khau va gia noi dia nam 1989-2008 so lucyng - tan gia gao XK, gia lua 700 6000 5000 4000 '• 3000 2000 1000 -i l-J-l 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 I San xuat i j Xuat khau — * — G i a XK — • — G i a lua N:.;iioii: 1Y)ng cue TTioiig ke Hiep hdi MuVt khau lurtig thuc thdng ke gia liia gao ciia mdt so cdng ty xuai khau gao va ciia tac giii Doll \ i tinh: Siin \u;il: 10.000 t;in; ,\uiil kh;iu: liin giii ,\uiit khiiu USD/t;in giii lua nirdc: 10 dong/kg • Gid liia gqo vd thay ddi cd cdu nuia vu Triidc ed viec xuat khau thi gia lua gao Nha nflde thu mua rat thap'" Tfl xuat khIu dfldc gad (nam 1989) gia Ifla gad tiing nicUih kich thich trdng trpt, gia tang ,-;;in ludng lua gao Nhu'ng nam d i u thap ky 90, tinh hinh san xuat chfla on dinh, eo mot so nam bi mat mua, ehi sau nam 1995 nidi di vao on dinh va gia tang deu diin Cung tir dd gi.a Ifla khong tiing, tham chi giiini nluf \no eae nam 2000-2003 Do thuan ldi ve thdi tiet, ddng xuan trd thiinh vu san x u l t chinh d DBSCL, chiem den gan 1/2 san lupng lua ca nam He thu la VII lu;i nhieu riii ro chi phi cao va chi chiem ty le thap d DBSCL, nhflng tae dpng eiia gii'i Cii nen d;"! tiing dan ve dien tich va san lupng den nam 1995 da chiem hpn 40% dien tich vii s;in Ifldng va tiep tuc gia tang dien 28 tich eho den bien Vdi vu thu ddng (vu 3) la mot nguon bd sung quan trpng ed eau thu hoach nam, vdi nhieu khuyen nghi dfldc dfla yeu eau ndng dan khdng nen gieo trong, dien tich va san Iflpng deu giam nhflng nam g i n day Sfl phan bd lai cd eau mfla vu ca nfldc cflng da lam eho ket eau Ifldng thflc trdng nam thay ddi Lua gao gan nhfl cd quanh nam Neu trflde ehi tap trung mfle dp dfl tbfla cao diem thdi vu ddng xuan, thieu hut xay neu ed ehi d cudi vu he thu thi tfl sau nam 1995 b i n nhfl khung cdn 10 Ni'im 1988 gia kg liia trung binh lii 185 ddng niiin 1989 la 370 ddng nam 199(ri;i 650 ddng, niim 1991 la 1290 ddng nam 1992 lii 1.094 ddng Trong ciic ni'im 1985-1990 liia v;i viii lu tlurdng dupe theo ty le thdng thudng kg uie = kg lua Nghi4n cuV Kinh te so 373 • Tiling 6/2009 Dien bien chi so gia Sfl thay doi cd cau mfla vu lam thay ddi qui luat gia ca Ifldng thflc Lam phat it xay dd tae dpng gia Ifla nhfl cac nam trflde nam 1995, va cflng khd xay tai cac thdi diem "giap hat" nhfl nhflng nam chfla on dinh Gia Ifla gao t h a p da keo cbi so' gia t h a p xud'ng nhieu nam tfl nam 1996 den nam 2003 Tuy nhien gia lua thap keo dai lai gay nen nhflng tac ddng khac Dien tich Ilia nam 2003 giam so vdi nam 2002, va tfl dd den nam 2007 dien Ifla cua nam sau deu giam di so nam nam trflde San Ifldng lua sau kbi dat dinh cao vao nam 2004 (36,15 trieu tin) thi cac nam tiep theo giam Chinh bd'i canh dd, nhu clu the gidi tang, gia gao tren thi trfldng the gidi tang tfl gifla nam 2007, da kee gia lua gad trdng nude tang vpt len theo da tac ddng dang ke den CPI nam 2007 va thang dau nam 2008 Vao cae thang cud'i nam 2008, gia gao tren thi trfldng the gidi nhiet gia nflde cung giam theo, thi CPI cflng nhiet theo 3.3 Gid lUdng thUc vd thuc pham Cac lln ebi sd gia tang cao cung nhfl giam nbanh deu gin sfl thay dd'i eua ebi sd gia Ifldng thflc, thflc pham Thdi diem trflde nam 2000, dao dpng cua chi sd gia Ifldng thfle manh, sau nam 2001 ehi sd thflc pham bien dpng manh bdn HINH 9.2: CPI va gia \\idng Ivfofng thxic, thflc p h a m h a n g t h a n g cac nam 1996,1997,1998, 1999 va 2000 Chi so giS Chung (CPI) va chi so gia lu-ong thi/c, thyc pham 96,97.98,99 va 2000 106 , HiNH 9.3: CPI va gia Ifldng Ifldng thvlc, thflc p h a m h a n g t h a n g cac n a m tfl 2004 den 2008 CPI, lircTiig thirc va Ihire pham nam 2004- 2008 CPI » -Chi so gia t h y c pham Chi so gia l i f o n g t h y c 4.,_, *\,«_^-v*^ J, T4 T7 T10 Nam 2005 T3 T6 Til Tl T4 T7 T10 Nam 2007 T3 T6 T9 T12 T2 T5 T8 T11 Ni;iidii: Nien giiim thdng ke Ch sd giii hrcrng thuc tang nhanh giam cung riit nhanh, chi sd giii thuc phiim tang cung kha nhanh den kh giam lai giam nit it 29 Nghi4n cM Kinh 14 so 373 • Thing 6.2009 Diin bien chi so gia Cac lln CPI tang cad thi gia Ifldng thflc cflng tang r i t cao, giam thi gia Ifldng thflc giam manh Vdi thflc pham cung tang r I t nhanh CPI tang, nhflng CPI giam thi gia thflc pham giam r I t it Nam 2008, Tdng cue Thd'ng ke tinh toan them chi sd an udng ngoai gia dinh, thi cung cd hien tfldng chi Sd giam rat it cac thang cud'i nam, ca CPI hang thang am Tren thflc te thi rat nhieu dich vu, dd cd an udng da tang gia thi h l u nhfl khdng giam gia trd lai Cac nam 2003-2007 thfldng xay dich benh gia sue Chi se' gia thfle pham tang kha cad, cd nhflng pha tang vpt, nhflng kbi giam rIt it, phan anh ed cau san xuat khdng vflng chae eua ndng nghiep Cflng cac nam ndi tren, gia Ifldng thflc kha on dinh thdi ky diu, nhflng lai bien ddng dfl dpi nam 2008, tinh trang khdng thieu hut, eho thay he thdng phan phd'i yeu kem 3.4 Gid canh keo Ly thuyet ve gia canh keo cho rang gia nong san cd xu hfldng giam xud'ng, gia hang cdng nghiep (trao doi vdi ndng nghiep) tang len dan den bat ldi cho ndng nghiep Md rpng quan he la nhflng ngfldi ndng dan, la khu vflc ndng tbdn so vdi khu vflc dd thi ludn ludn bi thiet thdi Gbi nhan tfl so' lieu thd'ng ke ve ehi so' gia tfl nam 1976 den nam 1986 cho tbiy, chi so' gia Ifldng thflc nam 1986 tang so vdi nam 1976 la 115 l l n thi ehi so'gia vat tfl ndng nghiep tang len den 175 lln Nam 2000, Tong cue Thd'ng ke dfla vao tinh toan chi so' gia ban san pham ciia ngfldi san xuat hang cdng nghiep va san xuat hang ndng nghiep, thi gia hang ndng nghiep tang nhanh hdn so bang cdng nghiep Dieu mdt p h l n la gia hang ndng nghiep nhfl lua gao vdn da rat thap cac nam 19982001 nen da tang trd lai Vdi bang cdng nghiep mac du cflng thap cae nam giam phat, nhflng da ehiidi gia tang nhieu nam, nen cac nam sau tang cham hdn Sd vdi bang ndng nghiep HINH 10.1: Chi so gia Ifldng thiic va vat txi nong nghiep tii n a m 1976-1986 (nam 1976=100) 800 700 600 500 Vat It/ nong ngtiiep • Ll/Ong thifc 400 300 200 100 1978 1960 1981 1982 1983 1985 1986 HINH 10.2: Chi so gia ban san p h a m cua ngufcri san xuat hang cong nghiep va ciia nong nghiep 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 -Chi s6 gi^ Chung C N -Chi s6 gi^ Chung NoN 100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Nguon: Nien giam tho'ng ke 30 Nghi4n cM Kinh 14 s6 373 • Thing 6/2009 Dien bien chi so gia Thflc te chd thiy khdng the cd chuyen hang cdng nghiep cfl tang mai, hang ndng san lai giam mai Tang mai thi khdng cd ngitdi mua giam mai thi khdng cd ngfldi trdng Chae chan la cd eae pha dieu chinh, va thfldng thi cac pha dieu chinh de lai d cac eupc lam phat 1996, gia cua cac mat hang ndng nghiep tang nbanh hdn sd cae mat bang edng nghiep Nhflng sfl thay ddi gia gifla nam 2003 so vdi nam 1991, thi ty le tang cua mdt sd hang ndng nghiep cham hdn so bang cdng nghiep Neu so sanh sfl thay doi nam 2003 so vdi nam 1996, thi h l u bet bang ndng nghiep cham hdn so bang cdng nghiep Bang cho t h I y , tfl nam 1991 den nam BANG 7: Gia ban le mot so mat hang hoa thiet yeu tfl 1991-2003 Clia cac nam 1991 1992 So sanh 1995 1996 1999 2000 2003 1996/1991 2003/1991 2003/1996 Thoc te (d/kg) 1,291 1.094 1.957 2.031 2.250 1.853 2.110 1,57 1,63 1,04 Thit Ion (d/kg) 10.519 15.265 22.972 22.734 24.139 22.937 27.642 2,16 2,63 1,22 Ga thit (d/kg) 9.369 13.985 21.409 22.822 24.782 24.286 24.415 2,44 2,61 1,07 Ca chep (d/kg) 5,974 10.667 15.450 17.247 17.655 17.161 20.891 2,89 3,50 1,21 649 672 1.128 1.101 1.249 1.225 1.527 1,70 2,35 1,39 Mi chinh (d/kg) 18.926 19.510 22,851 24.147 28.600 26.000 25.496 1,28 1.35 1,06 Vai bong {dim) 3.469 5.156 6,233 7.207 9.477 9.102 9.517 2,08 2,74 1,32 686 1.046 1.429 1.546 1.680 1.831 1.959 2,25 2,86 1,27 2.628 2.416 3.382 3.661 4.330 4.690 5.176 1,39 1,97 1,41 265 468 520 596 597 691 1,96 2,61 1,33 Mudi (d/kg) Giay Viet (d/tap) Xang (d/l) Dien (d/kwh) 519 Nguiiii: NiC'n giiim iliong ke Lam phat la nhflng l l n dieu chinh lam tang manh gia hang Ifldng thflc, thflc pham, dfldng nhfl dd la sfl dieu chinh nhflng meo md ed elu gia hang cdng nghiep va ndng nghiep Chflng nao ma sfl trao dd'i gifla khu vflc cdng nghiep vdi khu vflc ndng nghiep cdn hdp ly, cac md'i tfldng quan, cae ty le hinh cac ben chap nhan dfldc thi chfla xay lam phat Ngflde lai, neu khu vflc ndng nghiep bi thiet thdi va kee dai, thi nguy cd bflng nd lam phat xuat hien Mei lln x u l t hien lam phat deu cd sfl dieu chinh lai gia ca Ifldng thflc va thfle pham so gia hang cdng nghiep Liim phat nam 1986 hay lam phat nam 2008, deu la hdi tu cua nhieu yeu to, nhflng lan nao cung cd mdt yeu td Ifldng thflc Dieu d i n den md'i quan he khac lien quan den chinb sach gia Ifldng thflc Khi thu nhap Nghien CM Kmh I4 so 373 • Thang 6/2009 cua nong dan khdng dfldc cai thien, giii Ifldng thflc thap, thi sflc mua cua bp giam Neu san xuat cdng nghiep tiep tuc gia tang se din den cung vfldt clu O vao tinh trang nay, neu cd them tae dpng nao khiie tfl chinb sach tien te tac dpng tfl ben ngoai vao, deu cd the dan den giam phat Gia Ifldng thflc thIp, thu nhap ndng dan thap se cd nhieu ngfldi hdn rdi bd dong ruong nganh cay Ifldng thflc it dfldc quan tam, san Ifldng giam Gia Ifldng thflc thap se khuyen khich cae nganh edng nghiep sfl dung nhieu Ifldng thflc bdn eho che bien hoac lam thfle an gia sflc, chan nudi phat trien va nhu clu (tfldng lai) vdi Ifldng thflc tang Trong trfldng hdp neu cd yen td tae dpng tfl ben ngoai, nhu clu the gidi gia tang gia tren thi trfldng the gidi gia tang, gia Ifldng thflc nflde se tang va se tac dpng den chi sd CPI (trfldng hdp nam 1999, 2004) 31 Diin bien chi so gia Neu cd them tac dpng tfl tien te, tham hut ngan sach, cu sdc tfl ben ngoai - gia nhien lieu gia tang, thi lam phat nfldc se bung len Dd la trfldng hdp nam 2008 va ke ca vao nam 1986 Dieu rut dfldc tfl eupc lam phat la bat ky nhflng ap dat nao tfl chinh sach nbIm kiem ehe gia Ifldng thflc va sfl thieu quan tam eua Nha nflde vao d i u tfl eho ndng nghiep ndng tbdn deu nglm chfla nhflng bat on lam phat va giam phat va di ngflde lai muc tieu an ninh Ifldng thflc qud'c gia Mot so' tom tat va nhan xet • Ty gid dnh hiidng Idn den hoqt dgng xuat nhap khdu vd cdn cdn thiidng mqi Ty gia thap (dong ndi te cao gia) cac nam 1986-1988 cung la nhflng nam xuat khau (vdi khu vflc toan bang USD) yeu, tham hut thfldng mai rat Idn Sfl thay ddi ty gia vao nam 1988 va tiep tuc cac nam sau dd thi xuat khau cflng tang rat manh va tham hut thfldng mai giam dang ke Sfl thay doi rat an tfldng la vao nam 1989, lln diu tien ed thang dfl thfldng mai HINH 11: Ty gia vdi x u a t k h a u , n h a p k h a u va can can t h a n h t o a n tii n a m 1988-2008 Can can V L , XK rong (%) T i gia V N D / U S D 18000 150,0 16000 14000 ! 12000 i 10000 8000 1993 2d'00 * 2002 2004 ,A 200 6000 4000 I Nh$p khau -Tygia VND/USD I Can c a n V L 2000 ,Vi,'/(,)//,' Nien giiim thoiig ke IMF Gin ciin vang lai (%) so GDP; XK (%) so (XK-NK)/XK, ty giii VND/USD euoi ky Ni^m 1992 ty gia USD giam so vdi nam 1991 va dflpc neo gifl quanh mdc 11.000 VND/USD den 1996, thi xuat khau tang cham hon so nhap khau nhap sieu tang vpt, can can vang lai cung tham hut Idn Trong cue n:\in iinh hfldng eua khung hoang kinh td Chau A (1997-1999) ty gia dfldc dieu chmb, xuat khau tang cham lai, nhflng nhap khau tham cbi khdng tang, nhap sieu giam, can can vang lai ed nam thang dfl Nhflng nam ty gia tfldng dd'i on dinh nhfl 2003, 2004, 2007, cflng la nhflng nam nhap sieu Idn can can vang lai tham but Hinh 11 cdn cho thay tham but can ihiinh toan va nhap sieu rat Idn cac n;im 1993 diiw 1996 T.ang trfldng cad trdng 32 nhflng nam dfldc dfla vad ludng vdn tfl ben ngeai gay khdang tham but Idn Tinh trang nhfl vay la khdng the keo dai Suy tbdai cac nam 1998-20001 da lam giam tham hut nhap sieu va thang dfl vdi can can vang lai Chinb sach tien te khdng du linh hoat xfl ly cac van de vi md thdi ky tang trfldng thi suy thoai kinh te tac dpng lap lai can bang Tinh binh tfldng tfl diin nam 2008 vdi bieu tinh theo thang Cac thang d i u nam nhap khau tang manh hdn xuat khau, nhap sieu Idn, cflng la nhflng thang ty gia t h I p Sfl thay dd'i ty gia tfl thang cung la lue nhap khau tang cham lai, nhap sieu gilm Nghi4n cuV Kinh 14'so 373 - Thing 6'2009 Dien bien chi so gia H I N H 12: D i e n b i e n x u a t k h a u , n h a p k h a u , n h a p s i e u v a t y g i a c a c t h a n g n a m 2008 Cd nhieu yeu to' t a c ddng den x u l t k h a u , n h a p kbiiu va can c a n t h a n h t o a n v a n g lai ehfl k h d n g chi n h a t yeu td'ty gia, nhflng Ciic so' lieu va b i n h a n h t r e n t r o n g k h o a n g thdi gian dai k h d n g h e la sfl trflng hdp n g l u nhien • Ldi sud't: lieu thud'c mqnh chdng Iqm phdt, siic cdng phat cung ciic Idn Lai s u a t la cdng cu cd t a c d u n g m a n h n h a t chd'ng l a m p h a t da dfldc a p d u n g cac n:'im 1986-1990, va mot l l n nfla dfldc ap d u n g d i u n a m 2008 da gdp p h l n kiem che lam p h a t cae t h a n g cud'i n a m Nhflng ca l l n deu gay n e n ton thfldng r a t Idn dd'i vdi n e n k i n h te P h a i m a t n a m s a u n a m 1989 (nam lai s u i t t a n g vpt d e n 10% t h a n g ) , kbi lai s u a t trd lai binh thfldng n e n k i n h te mdi phuc hdi nhflng t i n h t r a n g np n i n long vdng eua (•lie edng ty eon hoat ddng vdi edng ty m a t kha n a n g t h a n h toan (thfle chat la khdng cdn boat ddng) da trd t h a n h g a n h n a n g n i u kee nhieu n.am Dieu n a y cflng lap lai vae gifla cudi n a m 2008 Lieu tbude chdng l a m p h a t da n g a m lam p h a t da dflde kiem che thi n e n k i n h te cflng thiVm ddn I h m g loat d o a n h nghiep khdng chiu ndi hii s u i t vay 21 " /nam Theo d a n g gia eua Hiep hot d o a n h n g h i e p nbd va vfla, thi den t h i n g ed d e n 20"i sd d o a n h nghiep nhdm n a y d a n g g a p r a t n h i e u khd Nghi4n CM Kmh l4 so 373 • Thjnq rOO' k h a n , dflng trflde nguy cd p h a san va l/.i s d ' l y da ngflng boat dpng " Chung eupc thi t a n g trfldng kinh te ni,im 2008 ehi d a t 6,2% t h a p hdn ca eon sd ky vong 6,5% cua Chinh phu, sau kbi dii dieu chinb tfl 8,5-9% T a n g trfldng kinh te tinh theo quy thi quy d a t t h a p n b i t (5,4','o) C.oi giai phap kich c l u ty USD ma Chinh phfl dfla dfldi hinh thflc bu lai s u i t \"'» ve thflc chat la bang bd vet thfldng eho cac doanh nghiep hi ton thfldng nghiem trpng qua e;ic bien phaj-i chdng lam p h a t t h a n g d i u nam • Ldi sudtqud cao Lai s u i t m a cac n g a n b a n g cho doanh nghiep vay la r a t cao Khdng cbi la cao Iflc chdng lain p h a t (nam 1989-1992 gifla n a m 2008) m a cflng cao nen kinh te boat dpng b i n h thfldng, cao so vdi nhieu nflde k h u vflc Lai s u i t cao cflng khuyen khieh ng.an b a n g day m a n h cho vay, dd gia tang tin d u n g at Dieu dd da xay vao cudi nam 2007 d a u n a m 2008 Lai s u i t cao cung khdng k h u y e n khich cac n g a n h a n g noi c h u n g day m a n h cac dich vu ma chi tap t r u n g Viio cho vay 11 \'NNJ/.(/.i' (:j'iO!2i^OS iCMT + ^r 20'/i doanh nghiep dimg triroe ngii> en phii s.m Con so tliiy quan ngiii na> dupe Hieji hoi Doanh nghiep nho y.i vira (DNNVV) edng bo t:ii Dien dan Doanh ngliie|) NIMII hiine - Chirng khoiin cung lh,in g