International Political Economy Series The Political Economy of the Low-Carbon Transition Pathways Beyond Techno-Optimism Peadar Kirby and Tadhg O’Mahony International Political Economy Series Series Editor Timothy M. Shaw Visiting Professor University of Massachusetts Boston, USA Emeritus Professor University of London, UK The global political economy is in flux as a series of cumulative crises impacts its organization and governance The IPE series has tracked its development in both analysis and structure over the last three decades It has always had a concentration on the global South Now the South increasingly challenges the North as the centre of development, also reflected in a growing number of submissions and publications on indebted Eurozone economies in Southern Europe An indispensable resource for scholars and researchers, the series examines a variety of capitalisms and connections by focusing on emerging economies, companies and sectors, debates and policies It informs diverse policy communities as the established trans-Atlantic North declines and ‘the rest’, especially the BRICS, rise More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/13996 ‘In a clear and powerful argument, grounded in evidence from a wide range of sources, this book will persuade you that only eco-socialism can solve the climate crisis and ensure our survival.’ —Jacklyn Cock, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa Peadar Kirby • Tadhg O’Mahony The Political Economy of the Low-Carbon Transition Pathways Beyond Techno-Optimism Peadar Kirby Department of Politics and Public Administration University of Limerick Limerick, Ireland Tadhg O’Mahony Finland Futures Research Centre Turku School of Economics University of Turku Tampere, Finland International Political Economy Series ISBN 978-3-319-62553-9 ISBN 978-3-319-62554-6 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-62554-6 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017947768 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2018 This work is subject to copyright All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations Cover image © Rob Friedman/iStockphoto.com Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Peadar: To the friend I have had longest in my life, Eamonn O’Dwyer, his partner Tessa and his family, Jess, Sam and Alannah: Eamonn was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer as I began writing this book and was journeying with great dignity and love towards his death, surrounded by his family, as I finished writing Eamonn is a soul friend whom I shall miss greatly after more than 50 years of deeply nourishing encounters With great love, I dedicate this book to Eamonn, Tessa, Jess, Sam and Alannah: you will always be with us Eamonn Tadhg: To my Uncle John O’Mahony, his wife Peigí and family Máire, Aoife, Mossy, Johnny, Diarmuid, David and the late Timmy To my Aunty Kathleen Meagher, her husband Ned and daughter Aoife: Uncle John passed away in June 2016 and Aunty Kathleen in November This book is about a journey I have many memories of journeys that involved them in some way From the Devil’s Bit to Watergrasshill I dedicate this book to your memory Foreword Unchecked climate change is a looming existential threat Yet lifting the bonnet on the mitigation agenda proselytised by many climate elites reveals no meaningful nor timely action to curb emissions in line with our Paris commitments Instead, salvation is to be found in a plethora of glossy reports promoting green-growth, higher efficiency, utopian technology and the financialisation of all we hold dear The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change combined with the obligations enshrined in the Paris Agreement of 2015 has reshaped the climate change agenda While the former establishes carbon budgets as the appropriate scientific foundation for mitigation policy, the latter requires the international community ‘to hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C’ and to ‘pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C’ This ambitious and scientifically informed agenda demands rates of mitigation without historical precedent that are unimaginable within contemporary politics and remain far beyond anything yet countenanced across mainstream academia Even a conservative reading of the Paris commitments requires the wholesale transformation of the global energy system from high carbon fossil fuels to zero carbon alternatives by, if not well before, 2050 It is to this Herculean challenge that Peadar Kirby and Tadhg O’Mahony’s attention is focused in their The Political Economy of the LowCarbon Transition: Pathways beyond Techno-Optimism Clear and engaging, Peadar and Tadhg guide the reader through the many facets of climate change, from a contextual characterisation of the vii viii FOREWORD problem, its place within the wider sustainability discourse, and from what social and economic structures judicious solutions may arise Technical and scientific issues are adequately covered, as are the various critiques However, this book makes no pretence to substitute for 101 climate science and its value is certainly enhanced if the reader is already familiar with climate science and the concept of carbon budgets The real strength of the analysis is in situating the technocratic framing of climate change within an explicit and evolving political and social context The authors’ perspective and preferences are clear—they maintain a critical perspective throughout—ultimately providing an open interpretation of the challenges faced and of the potential responses and solutions They are evidently unconvinced by the technocratic and market-mechanism responses to climate change, seeing them very much as part of the problem rather than a framework for solutions Their views here are well constructed and emerge from a clear understanding of the historical timeline that has delivered both contemporary society and its accompanying problems The transparency of their reasoning makes it an appropriate and valuable read for those concerned about climate change, but who interpret the mitigation landscape through a more conventional lens In this respect their analysis opens up the prospect for informed debate—from which a richer understanding of the challenges should emerge—even if disagreement still remains In constructing their arguments Peadar and Tadhg draw on experiences from international development to shed light on the dynamic interplay between technology, politics, culture, economics and power In contrast to much of the academic guidance on mitigation, they demonstrate a deep appreciation of political economy and its pivotal role in thwarting or driving any meaningful progress Sadly, the growing dominance of abstract and quantitative scenarios generated by ever more complex and black box modelling has increasingly sidelined the thorny issues exposed by an understanding of political economy Such ‘expert-based’ and highly technical approaches have effectively closed down debate, providing instead inadequate responses to climate change that not threaten the dominant socioeconomic paradigm Eloquently capturing this process of marginalising plurality, Peadar and Tadhg turn to the wisdom of Pope Francis who writes in his encyclical letter Laudato Sí that ‘the alliance of technology and economics ends up FOREWORD ix side-lining anything unrelated to its immediate interests Consequently the most one can expect is superficial rhetoric, sporadic acts of philanthropy, and perfunctory expressions of concern for the environment, whereas any genuine attempt to introduce change is viewed as a nuisance based on romantic illusions.’ Building on this Peadar and Tadhg discuss groups grappling with how to operationalise the rich world latent in the Pope’s ‘romantic illusions’ They draw attention to how such approaches offer alternative and often contrasting visions rather than the singularity forthcoming from the dominant modelling approaches (technically referred to as Integrated Assessment Models—IAMs) They also emphasise how the distinction between transition and transformation is much more than semantics: the former captures a programme of incremental adjustments within the contemporary paradigm, while the latter embeds change that is fundamentally challenging to the paradigm Peadar and Tadhg offer the reader an informed tour of the prominent landmarks scattered across the climate change landscape, though their principal contribution is in revealing the often opaque links between them In this regard the book is appropriate for a wide constituency of readers The well-informed climate scientist will be enlightened through discussions on power, equity and the thorny issues residing in the social and political sciences At the same time, those with a good grasp of political shenanigans, power struggles and competitive commerce can witness the tortuous and time-consuming path climate change has had to navigate to become a pivotal global issue—as well as the trials and tribulations that continue to thwart meaningful and timely action In many respects, The Political Economy of the Low-Carbon Transition is an excellent undergraduate text, enriching the understanding of those studying the more technical elements of climate change and providing a useful and in-depth reference for those with an interdisciplinary bent to their studies This book is an important contribution on at least two key levels First it documents how the alliance of technology and economics [is] side-lining anything unrelated to its immediate interests And second, it details how the success of tomorrow’s reality can be found deep in the transformations hidden in today’s romantic illusions The future will be radically different from today We either continue the mitigation masquerade and face the chaotic consequences of rapidly rising x FOREWORD temperatures, or we cull the neo-liberal model and begin a radical mitigation agenda based on integrity and equity The window for deciding on which future to bequeath our children is almost closed, but for today at least, the choice is ours Kevin Anderson Professor of Energy and Climate Change University of Manchester Deputy Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research REFERENCES 289 ——— 2014 Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds)] Geneva: IPCC Jackson, T 2005 Motivating Sustainable Consumption A Review of Evidence on Consumer Behaviour and Behavioural Change Guildford: Sustainable Development Research Network, University of Surrey Jakob, M., and O. Edenhofer 2015 Welfare with or without Growth? Do We Need to Reduce Economic Activity to Protect the Environment and Increase the Quality of Life? GAIA 24 (4): 240–242 Mason, P 2015 Postcapitalism: A Guide to Our Future London: Penguin McDonagh, Seán 2016 Different Faiths United in Call for Climate Action The Irish Times, October 2016 Moser, S., and L. Dilling 2007 Creating a Climate for Change: Communicating Climate Change and Facilitating Social Change Cambridge: Cambridge University Press Newell, P., and D. 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Pan, et al 2007 Sustainable Development and Mitigation In Climate Change 2007: Mitigation Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, and L.A. Meyer Cambridge, UK; New York, NY: Cambridge University Press Sharpe, B., A. Hodgson, G. Leicester, A. Lyon, and I. Fazey 2016 Three Horizons: A Pathways Practice for Transformation Ecology and Society 21 (2): 47 Accessed 24 February 2017 http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol21/ iss2/art47/ Simms, Andrew 2016 A New Type of Politics Could Help Prevent Climate Disaster The Guardian, September 2016 290 10 OPTIONS AND PROSPECTS FOR A GLOBAL LOW-CARBON TRANSITION Soderholm, P., R. Hildingsson, B. Johansson, J. Khan, and F. Wilhelmsson 2011 Governing the Transition to Low-Carbon Futures: A Critical Survey of Energy Scenarios for 2050 Futures 43: 1105–1116 Stern, N., S. Peters, V. Bakhshi, A. Bowen, C. Cameron, S. Catovsky, D. Crane, et al 2006 Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change London: HM Treasury Vidal, John 2016 “Extraordinarily Hot” Arctic Temperatures Alarm Scientists The Guardian, 22 November 2016 World Bank 2010 World Development Report 2010 Development and Climate Change Washington, DC: The World Bank Index A adaptation, 18, 38, 42, 52n2, 79, 89, 90, 126, 135, 146, 180, 184, 192–5, 206, 216, 224, 226n3, 260, 284 Africa, 6, 15, 91, 92, 167, 173, 174, 183–8, 191, 262, 281, 283 agriculture, 66, 69, 79, 81n1, 81n6, 130, 149, 159, 160, 164, 179, 180, 184, 187, 235, 236, 280, 284 diary, 79, 149 Alberta, 208, 282 Allende, Salvador, 93 Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), 24, 183, 192, 193, 196 alternatives commodity chains, 233 consumption, 50, 207, 223 provision, 233 sharing economy, 223 Anderson, Kevin, 50, 51, 134, 135, 283, 284 Anglo-Saxon, 99 Annan, Kofi, 120 Antarctic, 7, 9, 282 anthropocene, 26 anthropocentric, 18, 77, 270 Arctic, 282 Arkansas, 282 Arrhenius, Svante August, Asia, 91, 92, 98, 101, 102, 105, 167, 184, 188–91, 196, 281, 282 Asian Modeling Exercise (AME), 42 Australia, 148, 159, 206, 280 automobiles, 61, 162 B Bahamas, 282 balance, 21, 24, 63, 69, 72, 77, 78, 80, 94, 101, 106, 126, 156, 158, 161, 163, 166, 182, 196, 218, 243, 265–7, 273, 276, 278, 284, 286n7 Ban Ki-moon, 3, 265 © The Author(s) 2018 P Kirby, T O’Mahony, The Political Economy of the Low-Carbon Transition, International Political Economy Series, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-62554-6 291 292 INDEX Bandung, 92 Belgium, Berger, Gaston, 116 Berger, Peter L., 30 biodiversity, 6, 11, 14, 22, 69, 79, 118, 157, 161, 163, 175, 179, 182, 224, 236, 260, 286n12 biomass, 81n2, 178 birth control, 62 Bishop, Maurice, 93 Bolivia, 19, 93, 179, 180, 182, 183 Botswana, 186, 281 bourgeoisie, 30 Brazil, 24, 50, 94, 146, 147, 156, 161–3, 175, 176, 181, 262, 283 Brexit, 150, 242, 244, 277 Britain, 6, 42, 213, 214, 251 British Antarctic Survey, British Columbia, 207, 208 British Petroleum (BP), 12, 13, 35 Brundtland, Gro Harlem, 7, 96 Brundtland Report, 7, 96 Buddhist Declaration on Climate Change, 278 Burma, 92 C Cabet, Étienne, 251 Calderón, Filipe, 164, 210 carbon, 146, 158, 167n1, 176, 177, 183, 187, 189, 190, 193, 206–9, 216, 219, 220, 266, 275, 276 emissions, 61, 63, 81n2, 101, 104, 154, 157, 160, 168n7, 169n11, 169n12, 184 levels, 37, 101 lock-in, 58, 152, 275 sinks, 37, 38, 128, 154, 160, 163, 175, 284 tax, 76, 154, 165, 211, 271 carbon capture and storage (CCS), 42, 81n2, 130 carbon dioxide (CO2), 8, 9, 25n2, 26n7, 37, 38, 41, 42, 45, 61, 62, 64, 81n4, 82n16, 131, 135, 177, 178, 186, 219, 220 Carbon Tracker, 13, 186 Cardoso, Fernando Henrique, 94 Caribbean, 91–3, 179, 183, 191, 192, 194 Centre for Alternative Technology (CAT), 127, 187, 189, 190 Centre for Policy Development, 129 Chakravarty, Sukhamoy, 77 Chicago Chicago boys, 99 Chile, 93, 99, 156, 183, 207, 210, 283 China, 24, 42, 62, 98, 102, 129, 146, 147, 149, 156–60, 166, 167, 175, 177, 183, 206, 219, 222, 262, 281 chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), cities, 3, 13, 104, 130, 152, 188, 190, 197, 210, 217, 237 smart, 50 civilization, 4, 19, 22, 26n6, 78, 133, 180 thermo-industrial, 18 Clark, Helen, 210 climate Climate Action Plan, 45, 153, 165, 280, 287n15 climate change, 3–5, 8, 10, 11, 15–20, 23, 24, 25n5, 29–51, 57–9, 61, 64, 71, 76, 78, 81n1, 89–91, 101, 103, 109, 116, 118, 119, 121–3, 126, 131, 133, 134, 138n11, 145–8, 152, 156, 157, 160, 161, 164, 168n3, 168n5, 174, 179, 181, INDEX 183, 185, 187, 188, 190–5, 197, 204, 205, 209, 210, 213, 216, 222, 223, 231, 234–6, 244, 254, 255, 260–2, 267, 270, 274, 278–81, 283–5, 287n17 climate summit, 3, 8, 12–14, 22, 32, 44, 146, 154, 164, 177, 186, 192 Climate Action Tracker, 156, 158, 160, 161, 163, 164, 186 climate capitalism, 24, 104, 105, 108, 109, 197, 203–26, 231, 253, 255, 263, 271 climate change, 109, 255 climate Keynesianism, 105 Climate Reality Project, 32 climategate, 32, 52n3 Clinton, Bill, 57, 244 Cloughjordan Ecovillage, 107, 286n11 Club of Rome, 6, 121, 237 coal, 13, 26n7, 63, 81n1, 122, 149, 154, 157, 160, 161, 163, 166, 168n3, 182, 186, 190, 219, 226n6 cobalt, 19 coltan, 19 commodities, 20, 21, 75, 94, 169n10, 243 commodity chains, 233 community groups, 233 complexities, 43 Congo, 19 conservation, 6, 29, 67, 81n9, 148, 152, 163, 185, 286n12 constructivism, 30, 34 consumption, 5, 24, 26n7, 46, 50, 66, 69, 71, 72, 74, 77, 81n6, 81n9, 82n13, 97, 118–20, 122, 125, 129, 133, 137, 138n7, 153, 155, 293 157, 158, 160, 165, 169n11, 174–6, 189, 195, 207, 213, 220–4, 226n6, 233, 236, 237, 240, 241, 248, 253, 260, 268, 269, 274, 275, 284, 285, 286n5 meat, 79, 81n8, 149, 159, 276 cooperatives, 35, 36, 150, 233–5, 238, 246, 248–51, 274 Copenhagen, 32, 130, 146, 157, 186, 190 copper, 19, 154, 181 Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), 274 Costa Rica, 173, 176, 177, 183, 195, 203, 207, 222, 262 Cuba, 282 D Daly, Herman, 237, 238, 245 dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI), 122, 138n4, 167n1 Davos, 242 de Jouvenel, Hugues, 52n7, 117 De Schutter, Olivier, 106–8, 232, 234, 241 debt, 95, 150, 153, 169n9, 174, 183, 215, 269, 278 decarbonisation, 63, 71, 124, 127–9, 131, 133, 135, 138n7, 138n12, 163, 218, 283 decoupling, 15, 71, 72, 108, 188, 204, 212, 218–21, 237, 263, 271 deforestation, 81n1, 81n6, 82n16, 124–125, 138n3, 157, 163, 163, 163, 164, 179–82, 280, 283, 284 degrowth, 25, 224, 232, 236–9, 248, 263, 274, 275 dematerialisation, 71, 220 Denmark, 151, 207 dependency, 59, 60, 93, 94, 98 294 INDEX dependent, 106 development human, 69, 70, 74, 75, 95, 125, 126, 132, 138n8, 151, 157, 161, 169n10, 177 models, 23, 24, 37, 89, 90, 97, 135, 166, 179–83, 196, 203, 261, 263, 285 practice, 90, 181 sustainable, 7, 43, 44, 46, 57, 58, 63, 66–8, 74, 77–80, 89, 91, 95, 96, 108, 109, 119, 126, 130, 132–5, 146, 147, 149–51, 153, 155, 156, 158, 161–3, 165–7, 215, 220, 238, 244, 254, 262, 266, 268, 270, 271, 273, 275, 276, 280, 286n6, 286n11 theory, 23, 90, 94, 97, 261 Diogo, Luísa, 210 discourse, 4, 6, 8, 51, 58, 76, 77, 109, 161, 193, 205, 222, 224 framing, 29 divestment, 13, 236, 237 Dudley, Bob, 12 Durban, 146, 157, 160, 186 E Earth summit, 14, 95, 145, 192 ecocentric, 77, 270 ecological footprint (EF), 50, 106, 147, 151, 154, 161, 166, 167–8n2, 173, 184, 186, 187 ecology, 6, 50 economy economy for the common good, 232, 236, 245–8, 250, 263, 274 green, 63, 185, 211–13, 216, 268 no-growth, 7, 237 steady-state economy, 237, 238 ecosocialism, 197, 203, 204, 218, 231–55, 263, 274, 275 ecosystem, 4, 6, 15, 21–3, 29, 77, 78, 82n15, 118, 120, 122, 147, 161, 162, 175, 179, 189, 191, 194, 213, 218, 219, 238, 240, 250, 254, 259 Ecuador, 93, 176, 179, 180, 183 Egypt, 50, 92, 93, 176 El Niño, 37, 281 electricity, 19, 45, 128, 129, 154, 160, 162, 176, 178, 179, 186, 187 emerging economies, 24, 97, 146, 147, 149, 156, 175, 193, 195, 261, 262 emissions carbon, 8, 12, 15, 37, 61, 63, 81n2, 101, 124, 127, 131, 154, 157, 160, 168n7, 169n11, 169n12, 177, 179, 183, 184, 220, 221 greenhouse gas (GHG), 4, 5, 7–9, 14, 17, 23, 26n7, 29, 34, 36, 38, 57–9, 61, 64, 66, 69, 71, 76, 77, 79, 80, 81n8, 104, 122–4, 127, 129, 136, 145, 148, 153, 154, 157–9, 161, 162, 168n2, 178, 183–5, 188–90, 192–4, 203–5, 208, 209, 212, 219, 220, 254, 255, 263, 276, 280, 284, 286n5 emissions trading schemes (ETS), 104, 148, 149, 205, 206, 208 encyclical, 16, 33, 174, 240, 278 energy intensity, 15, 42, 63, 64, 157, 158, 219, 220 nuclear, 42, 81n2 renewable, 13, 104, 110n3, 130, 148–50, 154, 155, 158, 161, 177, 178, 186, 206, 209, 211, 216, 224, 235, 278, 286n11 energy grids, 18 Engels, Friedrich, 251 INDEX environment, 6, 7, 11, 17, 19, 29, 35, 51, 57, 61, 66, 70, 75, 77, 78, 80, 95, 118–21, 126, 133, 136, 137n1, 138n8, 138n11, 151, 161, 174, 178, 181, 212, 219, 248, 253, 261, 267, 268, 270, 273–6, 284, 285n3, 286n5, 286n7 environmentalism, 5, 96, 109 Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), 63, 178 Environmental Research Institute (ERI), 40, 41 Espinosa Cantellano, Patricia, 164 Ethiopia, 195, 283 European Commission, 82n14, 129, 249 European Economic and Social Committee (EESC), 249 European Environment Agency (EEA), 78, 122, 149 European Green Party, 213 European Union (EU) Horizon 2020, 71 Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050, 129 F Faletto, Enzo, 94 finance catastrophe bonds, 209 climate, 183, 216, 226n3 instruments, 209, 214 weather derivatives, 209 financialization, 204, 214 Finland Futures Research Centre, 71, 120 food systems, 235, 236 forecast, 12, 35, 39, 41, 116, 117, 123, 137n2, 138n9, 192 295 foreign aid, 92 foresight, 117 Fort McMurray, 282 fossil fuels, 4, 12, 13, 16, 18, 25n2, 26n7, 32, 35, 45, 50, 52n1, 63, 71, 81n1, 81n2, 81n6, 81n7, 122, 124, 138n3, 138n12, 149, 162, 165, 168n3, 169n14, 175, 183, 194, 207, 211, 213, 216, 222, 226n6, 232, 234, 236, 267, 274, 278, 279 Fourier, Charles, 251 Fourier, Joseph, France, 6, 42, 100, 149, 159, 207, 239, 251 Frankenstein’s monster, 32 futures studies, 117 G Gaia, gas, 12, 13, 26n7, 41, 63, 71, 81n1, 81n4, 81n6, 122, 154, 164, 168n2, 168n3, 181, 182, 190, 194 German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU), 20, 106, 129, 204, 217 Germany, 6, 42, 100, 219, 247, 251 Glass-Steagall Act, 214 Global Commission on the Economy and Climate New Climate Economy Report, 104, 128, 210, 211, 214 Global Environmental Outlooks (GEO), 118, 119 Global Scenario Group, 131 globalization, 18, 30, 97, 242, 244, 267, 277, 280 Gore, Al, 32, 129 governance energy, 107, 134, 265 transformation, 90, 217 296 INDEX Gramsci, Antonio, 30 Gras, Alain, 18, 19 Great Depression, 117, 268, 269, 273 Great Recession, 224, 269 green economy, 162 green growth, 149, 174, 188, 189, 191, 197, 204, 211, 262, 263, 275 Green New Deal, 211, 213 greenhouse gas (GHG), 8–10, 14, 61, 66, 69, 76, 77, 79, 80, 81n1, 81n2, 81n6, 81n8, 122, 127, 133, 145, 146, 148, 149, 151, 153, 154, 157–9, 161, 162, 168n2, 188, 206, 208, 263, 276, 278, 280, 284, 286n5 Greenland, Greenpeace, 42 Greenspan Bell, Ruth, 14 Grenada, 93, 192 Gunder Frank, Andre, 94 Gurría, Angel, 210 H habitats, 29, 168n3, 192, 286n12 Haiti, 282 Hawking, Stephen, 244, 245 Hayter, Teresa, 92 hegemony, 30, 51, 156 Higgins, Michael D., 50, 51 Hollande, Franỗois, Holocene, 12, 26n6 Hulme, Mike, 17, 18, 285 I Iceland, 151, 206–8 IDEAcarbon, 209 ideology, 5, 16–20, 46, 99, 103 immaterialisation, 71, 72, 138n7 Import-Substitution Industrialization (ISI), 94 Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), 238 India, 24, 42, 92, 146, 147, 156, 160, 161, 166, 173, 175, 183, 188, 190, 193, 207, 242, 262, 280, 282 indicators, 68, 100, 147, 148, 176, 177, 184, 185, 203, 220, 240 Indonesia, 92, 156, 176, 190 industrial revolution, 18, 21, 36, 81n4, 237, 259 industry, 284 inequality, 16, 21, 38, 63, 68, 69, 79, 92, 100, 101, 117, 119, 138n11, 150, 153, 155, 157, 163, 164, 166, 168n8, 178, 205, 232, 236, 241–5, 247, 263, 268–71, 276–9, 286n7, 286n8 inertia, 58–60, 75, 80, 103, 212, 216 Inner Mongolia, 281 Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), 239 integrated, 23, 39, 51, 58, 61, 65, 66, 78–80, 149, 151, 156, 161, 163, 165, 166, 262, 273, 275 policy, 78, 79, 266 scenarios, 47, 135, 136 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), 127, 153, 154, 157, 160, 162, 164, 186, 187, 189, 194, 216, 226n5, 280 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 4, 8–10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 26n7, 32, 34, 36, 38, 39, 50, 51, 52n1, 52n2, 52n4, 59–61, 64, 65, 67, 69, 70, 76, 79, 89, 90, 109, 110n1, 122–6, 130, 166, 192, 266, 267, 270, 271, 273, 275, 280, 281, 285n2 International Energy Agency (IEA), 37, 41, 44, 122, 154, 155, 216, 226n5 INDEX International Monetary Fund (IMF), 95, 215 International Panel on Social Progress, 274 International Transport Forum (ITF), 44 Iran, 282 Iraq, 282 Ireland, 40, 50, 107, 149, 159, 207, 208, 270, 286n11 Islamic Declaration on Climate, 278 Islamic State, 108 Italy, 6, 238 J Jackson, Tim, 7, 62, 71, 120, 219, 237, 245, 277 Jamaica, 93 Japan, 24, 42, 98, 99, 146–8, 153–6, 165, 166, 189, 190, 196, 206, 207, 262 Jevons paradox, 220, 226n6 Jinping, Xi, 157 J.P. Morgan, 209 K Kahn, Hermann, 116 Katanga, 19 Kaya identity, 58, 61, 63, 124 Keeling, Thomas, Kenya, 283 Keynesianism climate Keynesianism, 105, 211, 217 Kim, Jim Yong, 14 Kivu, 19 Klein, Naomi, 223 Kyoto Protocol, 145, 146, 148, 149, 152, 153, 157, 162, 164, 167n1, 186, 205, 209, 279 297 L Lagos, Ricardo, 210 The Lancet, 165 land use, 15, 45, 69, 81n1, 104, 124, 138n3, 155, 162, 164, 187, 191, 210, 217, 224, 226n3, 260 Land use, Land use Change and Forestry (LULUCF), 149, 154, 162, 164, 168n6 Laudato Sí, 16, 33, 240 Lebanon, 92 Liechtenstein, 206 Limits to Growth, 6, 121 Lithium, 19 Lomborg, Bjørn, 32 London School of Economics (LSE), 237 Louisiana, 282 Lovelock, James, low-carbon, 23–5, 26n7, 40, 42, 44, 45, 71, 90, 103, 106, 107, 119, 126, 130, 131, 134–6, 138n11, 138n12, 145, 146, 148, 149, 151, 152, 163, 165–7, 174, 175, 177, 187, 190, 191, 195–7, 203, 207, 222, 224, 225, 235, 254 Luckmann, Thomas, 30 M Madagascar, 281 Malawi, 281 Manley, Michael, 93 market coordinated market economies (CMEs), 100 liberal market economies (LMEs), 100 Marshall Plan, 91 Marx, Karl, 48, 49, 231, 250, 251 298 INDEX Mary Robinson Foundation—Climate Justice (MRFCJ), 270 Mason, Paul, 225, 234, 236, 250, 271 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), 6, 121 MAXWELL, 71, 72, 120 Meadows, Dennis, 7, 121 Meadows, Donella, 7, 121 Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, 129 Mexico, 24, 146, 147, 156, 163–6, 175, 183, 207, 210, 262, 283 Mill, John Stuart, 237 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA), 78, 120 Missouri, 282 mitigation, 15, 18, 38, 39, 42, 58, 59, 61, 63–7, 69, 71–5, 78–80, 81n7, 89, 90, 116, 125, 127, 128, 134, 136, 146, 150, 152, 161, 164–6, 175, 176, 192, 194, 195, 206, 224, 260 modeling Asian Modeling Exercise (AME), 42 computer simulation, 117, 121 mathematical, 61 models climate capitalism, 109, 204 development, 15, 22–4, 37, 63, 89–109, 166, 175, 179–83, 196, 203, 225, 250, 261, 263, 271, 285 ecological innovation, 106, 108 environmental state, 108 political economy, 46, 47, 91, 97, 105, 106, 108, 109, 137, 137n1, 147, 197, 203, 204, 218, 234, 260, 263, 265, 271, 273 modernization, 92–4, 98, 109, 197, 219 Mozambique, 185, 210, 281 municipalities, 106, 232, 248 N NASA, 283 Nasser, Gamal Abdel, 93 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 37, 81n4, 283 nationalization, 93 négritude, 93 neodymium, 19 neoliberalism, 98, 99, 104, 110n2, 205, 243, 271, 277 Nepal, 42 Netherlands, 100 New Economics Foundation (NEF), 21, 101, 213 New Harmony, 251 New International Economic Order (NIEO), 94, 95 New Zealand, 206, 210 nitrogen, 11, 82n16, 220, 236 Nixon, Richard, 214 Non-Aligned Movement, 92, 93 Nordics, 147, 150, 151 North Korea, 98 Norway, 151, 206, 207, 210 Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), 44 Nyerere, Julius, 92 O Obama, Barack, 3, 152, 153, 157, 165 ocean acidification, 11, 188, 192, 224 oil, 12, 13, 16, 26n7, 81n1, 94, 108, 116, 129, 130, 154, 155, 162, 168n3, 181, 182, 190, 194, 213, 219, 234, 236 oil pipelines, 18 Oklahoma, 282 Open Source, 235, 248 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 15, 44, 45, 154, 155, INDEX 164, 176, 177, 204, 210, 211, 220, 268 Overseas Development Institute (ODI), 92 Owen, Robert, 251 Oxfam, 92, 242 ozone Montreal Protocol, ozone layer, 7, 8, 32 P Pakistan, 92, 188 Panama, 93, 183 paradigm political, 44 political economy, 46 regulatory state, 44 techno-economic, 57, 285 technological, 74, 261 Paris, 3, 6, 8, 12–14, 22, 44, 154, 157, 160, 162, 164, 177, 192, 238, 239 Paris Agreement (PA), 5, 12, 145, 186, 192, 193, 206, 260, 279, 280, 287n15 Parsons, Talcott, 93 path dependency, 59, 60, 195 pathways development, 23, 24, 39, 58, 60, 64–70, 75, 79, 80, 90, 91, 125, 126, 131, 133, 145, 150, 153, 155, 156, 161, 166, 167, 191, 261, 262, 264–6, 268, 270, 271, 275, 280 energy, 41 post-carbon, 129 sustainable development, 58, 68–70, 74, 75, 79, 80, 126, 133–5, 150, 151, 153, 155, 156, 161, 163, 166, 167, 262, 266, 268, 270, 271, 275, 280 transformation, 110n1 299 peat, 81n1, 122, 168n3 Peru, 50, 93, 176, 180, 182, 183, 283 phosphorus, 11, 82n16 Piketty, Thomas, 244–5 planetary boundaries (PB), 11, 12, 17, 20, 23, 78, 224, 236, 260 Podemos, 253 Polanyi, Karl, 20–2, 250, 252, 259 Polanyi Levitt, Kari, 250 political economy, 23, 43–7, 51, 58, 66, 75, 91, 97–100, 103–7, 109, 116, 119, 123–6, 131–4, 136, 137, 137n1, 147, 166, 167, 174, 195–7, 203, 232, 237, 253, 259–61, 263–7, 270–5 Pope Francis, 16, 17, 19, 21, 33, 51, 174, 240, 278 population, 6, 9, 23, 35, 39, 62, 77, 116, 121, 124, 147, 156, 160, 161, 163, 167n2, 176, 178, 179, 183–8, 190–3, 209, 213, 220, 240, 286n5 Portugal, postcapitalism, 225, 234, 249–52 post-carbon, 259, 260, 263, 264, 266, 271, 273, 281 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, 13 power, 6, 16, 18, 20, 23, 29, 30, 32–5, 38, 40, 42, 46, 48–51, 52n7, 69, 92, 93, 97, 102, 106, 108, 109, 116, 119, 122, 129, 130, 136, 137, 138n3, 148, 149, 154, 155, 160, 161, 163, 177, 179, 181, 185, 187, 189, 190, 192, 194, 203, 205, 206, 209, 223, 225, 231, 235, 242, 243, 245, 247, 248, 250, 251, 261, 265, 267, 271, 278, 285 prediction, 39, 116, 121, 123 300 INDEX Princeton Environment Institute, 72 projection, 16, 35, 61, 116, 123, 137n2, 138n9, 158, 176, 184 projections, 116 R rail, 60 R&D, 81n9, 212 Reagan, Ronald, 95, 244, 269 renewable energy, 131, 239 Research & Degrowth, 239 Rhineland, 100 Ribó, Joan, 253 Rio de Janeiro, 95 roads, 18, 60, 93, 145–67, 182 Robinson, Mary, 270 Rodriguez Lara, Guillermo, 93 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 213, 268, 269 Rostow, Walt, 93 Roubini, Nouriel, 117 Roussef, Dilma, 156 Russian Revolution, 98 Rytz, Regula, 268 S Saint-Simon, Claude Henri de, 251 Salar de Uyuni, 19 Scandinavia, 98 scenarios, 23–5, 35, 37–41, 43, 47, 51, 52n2, 52n7, 59, 63, 64, 66, 67, 70, 72, 75, 76, 103, 105, 109, 115–37, 161, 220, 221, 253–5, 259, 261, 262, 264–6 backcasting scenarios, 127 exploratory scenarios, 138n9 inquiry-driven, 118 scenario analysis, 24, 117, 118, 132, 136, 279 scenario planning, 116, 117 scenario thinking, 117 Tellus Institute scenarios, 265, 273 School for Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), 239 science, 4, 6, 8, 11, 17, 19, 20, 22, 25n3, 25n5, 31–4, 36–8, 43, 45, 50, 51, 52n1, 52n2, 59, 64, 123, 126, 129, 133, 134, 145, 146, 152, 168n5, 264, 274, 279–81, 287n17 politics of, 122, 124 Sciences Po, 239 Scotland, 251 sectors, 16, 32, 43, 45, 68, 78, 91, 98, 99, 104, 106, 118, 122, 129, 130, 135, 137n1, 148, 149, 163, 168n3, 178, 180, 190, 191, 195, 206, 207, 209–11, 214, 224, 232, 234–7, 239, 241, 242, 263, 267, 285n4 Sen, Amartya, 37, 62, 63, 70, 75, 77, 169n10, 274 Senghor, Léopold, 93 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), 125 Shell, 13, 35, 116, 182 Shiller, Robert, 117 Shiva, Vandana, 235, 236 simulation, 31, 137n1 Skłodowska-Curie, Marie, 82n14 social democracy, 99, 167 social enterprises, 233 socialism African, 92 Arab, 93 ecosocialism, 197, 203, 204, 218, 231–55, 263, 274, 275 military, 93 utopian, 249, 250 society civil, 16, 25n1, 43, 82n17, 102, 104, 105, 138n5, 152, 153, 191, 196, 203, 217, 218, 222, 225, 259, 263, 264, 266, 267, 271, 273, 274, 278, 280 INDEX low-carbon, 5, 20, 23–5, 31, 38, 40, 42, 43, 45–7, 51, 89–91, 95, 97, 102–9, 203, 210, 218, 259, 261 market, 20, 82n17, 138n5, 250 post-carbon, 25n1, 26n7, 98, 101, 102, 105, 134, 203, 204, 222, 223, 231, 232, 260, 263, 264 third sector, 106, 232, 234 Somalia, 283 South Africa, 156, 184–6, 281 South Korea, 42, 99, 156, 184, 189, 196, 197, 211 South Sudan, 283 Spain, 6, 238, 253, 283 Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), 34, 59, 61, 76, 123, 125 Sri Lanka, 92, 176 Stalin, 93 state developmental, 98, 99, 101, 105 environmental, 105, 106, 196, 271 Wiki-state, 235 Stein, Jill, 213 Stern, Nicholas, 76, 210, 266, 284 Stockholm, 95 Stockholm Resilience Institute, 11 Stoltenberg, Jens, 210 Streeck, Wolfgang, 224, 225 structural adjustment, 95 sufficiency, 50, 180 sulphur, 220 Surrey, University of, 120 surveillance, 19 sustainable consumption and production (SCP), 72, 119, 155, 222 sustainable development, 7, 46, 57, 58, 63, 66–8, 74, 77–80, 89–91, 95, 108, 109, 146, 147, 149–51, 153, 155, 156, 158, 161–3, 165–7, 213, 254, 262, 266, 268, 270, 271, 273, 275, 276, 280, 286n6, 286n11 301 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), 164, 165, 210 sustainable well-being, 120, 275–7 Swahili, 92 Sweden, 151, 207 Switzerland, 100, 207, 268 Syria, 93, 108 T Taiwan, 99, 281 tax carbon, 76, 154, 165, 205, 207–9 technology biochar, 18 carbon capture and storage, 18, 42, 81n2, 130 enhanced weathering, 18 geoengineering, 18 hybrid and electric vehicles, 33, 130 marine cloud brightening, 18 ocean fertilization, 18 orbital mirrors, 18 smart grids, 130 socio-technical systems, 73–5 steam engine, 48 stratospheric aerosol injection, 18 technological innovations systems, 75 technological paradigm, 19, 20, 22, 47, 74, 261 technological regime, 74 telegraph, 48 urban whitewashing, 18 Tellus Institute, 131 scenarios, 131, 132, 135, 136, 253, 265, 273 Texas, 282 Thatcher, Margaret, 95 third world, 92, 94 Tito, Josip Broz, 93 Torres, Juan J., 93 Torrijos, Omar, 93 302 INDEX Track 0, 127 trade unions, 93, 99, 100, 242, 243, 253 transformation economic, 260, 270, 271, 276 pathway, 38, 110n1, 176, 273 policy, 105, 106, 123, 125, 127, 130, 131, 134–6, 153, 260, 273 scenario, 123, 125–7 social, 30, 39, 42, 48, 67, 116, 125, 131, 134, 136, 138n7, 216, 218, 223, 259, 260, 262, 267 studies, 103, 109, 127, 128, 133, 134, 136 technological, 75, 80, 131–6, 149–51, 153–5, 158, 161, 165–7, 187, 254, 264, 266, 271, 275, 280 transformational change, 90 transition deep decarbonisation, 127, 129, 133, 138n12, 163 energy, 19, 72 low-carbon, 24, 25, 31, 38–43, 45–7, 51, 52n2, 57–80, 89, 90, 103, 105–9, 115, 117–19, 133, 134, 136, 148, 151, 196, 226n5, 232, 253–5, 259–85 post-carbon, 20, 109, 225, 252, 273, 281 scenario, 124, 126, 131, 135, 136, 265 transition management, 75, 135 transition towns, 106 Truman, Harry, 91 Trump, Donald, 165, 197, 242, 244, 260, 277, 279, 280 Tutu, Desmond, 236 Tyndall, John, 8, 134 U ujamaa, 92 UN Economic Commission for Latin America (CEPAL), 94 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 5, 16, 82n18, 127, 138n4, 138n10, 145, 148, 152, 164, 165, 216, 226n3, 226n5, 255, 260, 270, 279, 280, 287n15 United Nations (UN), 36, 94, 95, 192, 283 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 4, 15–17, 78, 91, 95, 101 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), 118, 119, 122, 189, 204, 211, 213, 220, 221 United States (US) Clean Power Plan, 153 Climate Action Plan, 153, 165, 280 Obama administration, 3, 153, 157, 165, 244 University College Cork, 40 University of East Anglia Unruh, Gregory C., 60 Uruguay, 173, 176, 177, 184, 195, 203, 222, 262 V Valencia, 253 Veblen, Thorstein, 49 Velasco Alvarado, Juan, 93 Vietnam, 98, 176, 190 voluntary associations, 233 W Wallis, Stewart, 21, 101 Washington Consensus, 95 INDEX Weitling, Wilhelm, 251 wellbeing, 21, 22, 57, 59, 62, 63, 67–71, 74, 75, 80, 82n13, 82n15, 101, 107, 117–20, 126, 131, 132, 134, 138n8, 138n11, 150, 151, 153, 157, 158, 160, 161, 164, 165, 167, 168n3, 168n8, 176, 177, 195, 254, 265, 268, 270, 273–7, 280, 286n7 Wikipedia, 235 wind turbines, 19 Wind-Water-Sun (WWS), 128, 129 World Bank, 13, 14, 91, 95, 128, 179, 188, 204, 211, 215, 254, 273 World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED), 7, 96 303 World Economic Forum, 242 World Resources Institute, 154, 159, 168n6 World War, 91, 98, 109, 215 World Wildlife Fund (WWF), 6, 110n3, 178, 180 Wright, Erik Olin, 231 Y Yugoslavia, 93, 98 Z Zambia, 281 zero-carbon, 127, 128, 136, 138n12 Zimbabwe, 281 ... is focused in their The Political Economy of the LowCarbon Transition: Pathways beyond Techno- Optimism Clear and engaging, Peadar and Tadhg guide the reader through the many facets of climate change,... O’Mahony, The Political Economy of the Low- Carbon Transition, International Political Economy Series, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-62554-6_1 4 1 DEFINING THE PROBLEM: THE COMPLEX DIMENSIONS OF THE GRAVE of. .. Peadar Kirby • Tadhg O’Mahony The Political Economy of the Low- Carbon Transition Pathways Beyond Techno- Optimism Peadar Kirby Department of Politics and Public Administration University of Limerick Limerick,