Consumers choice of food store for delivery in HCMC

UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS ERASMUS UNVERSITY ROTTERDAM HO CHI MINH CITY VIETNAM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM – THE NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS CONSUMERS’ CHOICE OF FOOD STORE FOR DELIVERY IN HCMC BY Phan Duy Lap MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES HO CHI MINH CITY THE HAGUE VIETNAM THE NETHERLANDS VIETNAM - NETHERLANDS PROGRAMME FOR M.A IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS CONSUMERS’ CHOICE OF FOOD STORE FOR DELIVERY IN HCMC A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS By Phan Duy Lap Academic Supervisor: Dr Truong Dang Thuy ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Dr Truong Dang Thuy for the continuous support of my study and research, for his patience, motivation, enthusiasm, professionalism and immense knowledge Throughout my thesis process, he was always patient, supportive in the right directions, encouraged me to pursue my own research ideas and provided a great amount of valuable suggestions and guidance His guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis I could not have imagined having a better advisor and mentor for my study I would like to express my appreciation and respect for teachers of master of VNP, who have delivered the useful and practical knowledge in development economic, which I had perceived at the first time I would also like to thank all the faculty, staff and students for their friendships and collaboration during last years I would like to be grateful to my colleges, friend in supporting me for business, life and activities of data collection Thanks for my family always as my support overcomes all the difficulties and pursue the real goal in my life With all appreciation, HCM, Sept 2016 Table of contents Chapter Introduction 1.1 Problem statement 1.2 Research objectives 1.3 Scope of the study 1.4 Methodology 1.5 The study application 1.6 Structure of the thesis Chapter Literature review 10 2.1 B2C e-commerce in Vietnam 10 2.2 Random Utility Theory (RUT) 11 2.2.1 Attribute-based demand theory 11 2.2.2 Random Utility Model 12 2.3 Review of empirical studies of food store choices 13 2.3.1 Related papers using RUM 13 2.3.1.1 Related papers using RUM on 2012 14 2.3.1.2 Related papers using RUM on 2013 15 2.3.1.3 Related papers using RUM on 2014 20 2.3.1.4 Related papers using RUM on 2015 24 2.3.1.5 Related papers using RUM on 2016 25 2.3.2 Prices 27 2.3.3 Minimum order and fee 28 2.3.4: Chapter summary 28 Chapter Methodology 29 3.1 The research process 29 3.2 The describing three selected food stores 30 3.3 Methodology 32 3.3.1 Preliminary study 32 3.3.2 Formal study 32 3.3.2.1 Research sample 32 3.3.2.3 Methods of collecting and processing data 33 3.4 The research model: the Random Utility Model (RUM) 34 Chapter Econometrical model result 36 4.1 Describes statistical: 36 4.1.1 Consumers describes statistical: 36 4.1.2 Supplier describes statistical 37 4.2 Regression model result 39 Chapter Conclusion and Suggestion 43 5.1 Conclusion 43 5.2 Suggestion 43 5.2 Limitations 44 Reference list Appendix Probabilities of being chosen of stores when minimum order requirement changing Appendix Probabilities of being chosen of stores when the delivery fee changing Chapter Introduction 1.1 Problem statement There has been a rapidly growing of order food online service from 2012 to 2015 in Vietnam based on data from Vietnammm.com website Vietnammm.com site is one of a largest order food online website in Vietnam today They were founded in 2011 with only 200 orders per month After years in operations, they achieved over 80% growth per year and Vietnammm.com received 30 000 orders per month and continues to increasing until now Moreover, Vietnammm.com was not only increased in the number of orders per month but also they got a significant risen in quantity of restaurants They has 200 suppliers in 2012, and that number changed to 800 in the beginning of 2015 It is true to say that ordering food online has many benefits for both customers and suppliers in terms of cost and convenience Customers can choose from hundreds of vendors, and complete the order within minutes without any fee Customers also can get the assurance of food quality, convenient payment capability with cash or online payment methods On the other hand, food suppliers will be able to reach customers at very low cost Moreover, customers and suppliers have the ability to connect and transmit information to each other through ordering food online websites With the above benefits, the future of ordering food online is completely positive The last but not least, this kind of services is not encapsulated in the food ordering, customers will have access to many suppliers in the various items Currently, Tango Juice restaurant is leading in providing food delivery service in HCMC according to the Vietnammm.com On August 2015, Tango Juice achieve 2000 orders for delivery from Vietnammm.com and the turnover was 434481000 VND However, there are many other restaurants not receive even one order in the same time In fact, there were only lower 10 percent of restaurants (suppliers) joint this field achieved success The question in this situation is what was a reason making the differences among the food delivery supplier? Base on the Vietnammm.com database, customers who ordering food online usually pay attention to prices, delivery fee, the quality of food, the review and rating of restaurant, the abilities of delivery such as working time, deliver areas, speed of deliver, but the details of result still need to be analyze by economic model As reported from Vietnammm.com’s food categories survey, there have a signification increasing the in the number of restaurant which provide the healthy foods In details, more than 90% of Western Cuisine restaurants provided or added the nutritionally healthy and low fat dishes on their menu Moreover, some restaurants focus entirely on serving that kind of food, which use nutritionally beneficial ingredients and preparation techniques On the other hands, the revenue from delivery of restaurants which provides the healthy food is consistently increase every operation month For example, the venture Greens stared delivery on Vietnammm on March 2016, they got 18 163 000 VND revenue in the first month, this number increase to 55 560 000 VND in after months The increasing in the number of food suppliers who aim to serving the health aware consumer is a presentation of strong consumer trends towards healthier living Moreover, consumer is requesting the food which is consider as a nutritious and healthy at a low cost and with fast service In order to analyze the choice of consumers, the Random Utility Model is usually applied For example, Talukdar (2013) has been assessed in terms of the directionality of the price change between the healthy and unhealthy food categories by applied the RUM model In addition, Taylor (2016) using the RUM model aim to explain how the consumers make decision about food store choices, based on two determinants: (1) the outlet type; and (2) the household attributes In conclusion, this study will examine the determinants of choice of consumers between online restaurants of healthy food using the Random Utility Model Data is collected from the actual choices of customers of vietnammm.com, between the three healthy food stores Wowbox, Greens, and Beets the study is expected to help restaurants understanding how prices, delivery fee, the reviews and delivery time effect the choice and demand for their products, which help providing information for optimal design of these attributes 1.2 Research objectives Firstly, this study attempts to explain the current situation of food delivery services in Vietnam and the overview of B2C e-commerce in Vietnam Then, the paper aims at finding the key factors which impact to the choices of consumers The factors include:  prices  delivery fee  Minimum value of order Information on these analyses will provide the restaurants the information on how the likelihood of being chosen by consumers change when these factors change With these information, restaurants will be able to make optimal decisions on their prices, delivery fee and minimum value of order After that, the result of regression model can be used for calculated the probabilities of being chosen of stores when one of factors changing 1.3 Scope of the study Using the data from 16 to 22 Aug 2015 on the orders of three selected restaurants on Vietnammm.com, this study will examine the main elements which contribute to the customer selection The data will be collected from database of Vietnammmm.com The three selected restaurants include Greens, Wowbox and Beets selling healthy food that are similar 1.4 Methodology Preliminary studies carried out by collecting data from every single orders of each restaurants The formal study based on data came from the real order which have been made in the periods of selected time The data was collected, encoded and analyzed using Stata with the econometric model Random Utility (RUM), to analyze and evaluate the factors impacting the choice behavior of consumers 1.5 The study application The result of this study could be a useful for the suppliers to consider which attributes are important to consumers Since then the suppliers will be able invest appropriately in the properties that consumers are interested in order to increase revenue 1.6 Structure of the thesis The thesis includes five chapters Chapter provides basic definitions and theory of individual choice (the Random Utility Model), as well as a review of empirical studies on consumer choice Chapter describes the research methodology applied in this study Chapter presents the analyses results, including the summary statistics, estimates of the Random Utility Models and the calculation of choice probabilities Chapter concludes the thesis and provides some policy implications Chapter Literature review This chapter introduces the theoretical background and conceptual framework Firstly the overview about the B2C e-commerce in Vietnam, after that the other papers which used RUM model from 2012 to 2016 as well as the Random Utility Theory (RUT), Attribute-based demand theory and Random Utility Model have been reviewed 2.1 B2C e-commerce in Vietnam Data from the Vietnam E-commerce and Information Technology Agency (VECITA) showed that in 2015 the total revenue from B2C e-commerce in Vietnam was $4.07 billion, up 37 per cent on-year, and accounted for 2.8 per cent of the total retail of goods and services in the country Since 2015, e-commerce in Vietnam has seen thinning competition, as many businesses closed shop and backed out of the market, including online retailer Deca.vn and IDG Venturesbacked Project Lana’s three e-commerce sites Lamdieu, Beyeu, and Foreva, which sold fashion items and cosmetics, maternity and newborn goods, and underwear, consecutively Meanwhile, all of Rocket Internet’s e-commerce ventures in Vietnam changed hands Online clothing and accessories retailer Zalora was sold to Central Group, and Lazada was taken over by Alibaba Contrary to the market trend, Food ordering service still had a rapidly increase Foodpanda was taken over by local start-up Vietnammm who currently the market leader in terms of sales and number of orders in Vietnam, their growth is even more impressive Vietnammm.com is capable of continuous growth 80 % in last 03 years The impressive growth above can be explained by the following main points Suppliers (restaurants) are not charged the maintaining fee and free for any request updates They only pay commissions for successful orders Moreover, all of the service provider delivery are welcome to join the market They not need to pay a rent or decorated restaurant because they focuses on delivery only It could be true when we say, with favorable conditions on, there was a trendy for food delivery service directly from the kitchen to the customers In addition, suppliers are free to pause or stop business any time they want 10 Chapter Econometrical model result This chapter presents statistics of consumers and the properties of food suppliers which has been analyze and the results of model and discussion will be presented 4.1 Describes statistical: 4.1.1 Consumers describes statistical: Consumers is a person or group of people who order food from the suppliers The number of observations was 97 The details of statistics as below: The Table 4.1: Consumer statistics Consumer Gender Location Time Frequency Percent (%) Male 52 53.6 Female 45 46.4 House 50 51.5 Hotel 5.2 Office 42 43.3 Morning 30 31 Afternoon 28 28.8 Evening 39 40.2 6.2 Other 91 93.8 Individual 65 67.01 Group 32 32.99 Nationality Vietnamese Customer Based on the data in Table 4.1, the gender of consumers did not play an important roles in the selection of suppliers To make it clear, the investor or supplier can be eliminates the gender in their target customers, the percent of male and female who ordering healthy food in HCMC is nearly equal The male ratio is 53.6%, corresponding is 46.4% of female Similar to gender, the period time of the day is not much deviation deviate, however, customers tend to order in the evening which contributed 40.2% of total orders, followed by 31% on the morning and lowest 28.8% on the afternoon 36 The data also showed that very few Vietnamese people choose products from those of suppliers Vietnam's ratio of 6.2%, while the proportion of 93.8% to foreign accounts In addition, information from the location said that most of consumers were a person who working and living in Ho Chi Minh Number of tourists residing in hotels accounted for only 5.2%, next is 43.3 % order to workplace, and the highest percent orders have been delivered to home 51.5% Finally the customers tend to be order for individual consume (67.01%), the percentage of people ordering for groups or families accounted for only 32.99% 4.1.2 Supplier describes statistical All of them were a very first restaurants, who provided the salad for delivery in Ho Chi Minh They specialize in fresh, healthy salads and green smoothies for daily diet, lowcarb and vegetarian diet, etc Moreover, they are deeply committed to using only quality natural ingredients from trustworthy suppliers In addition, their properties and ability to provide services did not have a big different The Table 4.2 show the properties of food suppliers as below Table 4.2 the properties of food suppliers Suppliers Drinks Average Estimate working Extra food prices delivery time Topping time (hour/day) Frequency Percent (%) (minutes) Beets 63000 41 11 15000 22 22.69 Wowbox 56000 51 10000 39 40.2 Greens 64000 45 11.5 10000 36 37.11 37 Suppliers Healthy Attention Open Online Break Slogan Notes Weekend Payment time Beets No Yes Yes Yes No 22 22.69 Wowbox Yes Yes Yes No yes 39 40.2 Greens yes No No Yes No 36 37.11 Suppliers Rating Number of Average Number delivery drinks prices of food Frequency Percent (%) Frequency Percent (%) districts Beets Wowbox Greens 25000 21 22 22.69 4.5 10 38000 16 39 40.2 29000 25 36 37.11 Table 4.2 the properties of food suppliers Base on the Table 4.2, the properties of food suppliers can be explain details as below The number of frequency and percent column shown the customer’s selected for each shop in total 97 observation order The highest selection was Wowbox who has 39 orders over total 97 observation orders, accounted 40.2 % The next is Greens who has 36 orders and take 37.11 % The lowest is Beets, has 22.69 % by 22 orders On the order properties, Wowbox is a supplier who has the lowest average food prices, which was 56 000 VND, the Beets and Greens has the very close average food prices, respectively 63 000 VND and 64 000 VND All of the three restaurants has very similar properties of number of drinks, estimated delivery time, rating and cost for extra toping However, the working time (hour per day) has a signification deferent To make it clear, Beets and Greens have 11 and 11.5 which almost double than Wowbox who has working hours per day 38 The properties of three restaurants were also different in number of items they selling Greens offering 25 dishes on their menu, comparing 21 dishes of Beets and 16 dishes of Wowbox The drinks prices was nearly similar between Beets and Greens, respectively 25 000 VND and 29 000 VND, on the contrast of average food prices, Wowbox has the highest drinks prices, which was 38 000 VND However, Wowbox deliver to 10 districts, highest in three supplier About the rating, Greens got higher 4.5 of Wowbox and the lowest was Beets who has 4.2 Regression model result Regressing the RUM model including the variables: the Cost (am), the minimum order value (mi), the cost of delivery (fe) and dummy variables Table 4.3 : The regression model result Variables Coef Robust Std P>z Err Cost (VND) -0.00000198 0.00000507 0.697 Delivery fee(VND) -0.0001062 0.0000517 0.04 Minimum order (VND) -0.0000209 0.00000753 0.006 Wowbox 1.51 0.63 0.016 beets 1.02 0.614 0.095 The regression result determine that coef of the prices (cost of food), delivery fee and minimum order are negative (minus) It could be true in this situation, because the decrease in prices or any barriers could be effected possible to the consumer’s decision Considering about the signification of three variables am (cost), fe (delivery fee) and mi (minimum order request), obviously, the fe (cost) and mi (minimum order) were signification at 5% when p-value was 0.04 for fe (cost) and 0.006 for mi (minimum order) The cost of food (am) was not signification at 5%, the p-value was 0.697 39 The dummy variables Wowbox and beets were shown the interest of customers to three brand of suppliers, it is to control for store fixed effects It is mean the estimated coefficients of these dummies reflect the relative preferences on stores The coef of variable Wowbox was positive and signification at 5% with the p-value was 0.016, on the contrast, the coef of variable Beets was not signification at 5% and the p-value was 0.095 Base on this result, we can say the customer refer Wowbox is most then beets and finally is greens The table 4.3 showing the ranking of frequency for chosen the brand of suppliers according to the model and statistical of customer’s selection The different between model and real order can be explained by the working time and abilities to deliver In fact, the consumers selected this supplier by the other was closed or rejected their orders Table 4.3 the rank of three suppliers: Rank Real Model Wowbox Wowbox Greens Beets Beets Greens The probabilities of choosing stores can be predicted when the variables change in value, for example prices changing, given that all other things equal and also note the other store not change their prices Applying the function of probabilities: Probabilities = 𝑒𝑉1 𝑒𝑉1+𝑒𝑉2+𝑒𝑉3 The Chart 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3 will show the changing in the probabilities of choosing stores when one store’s prices change in from VND to 150 000 VND, noted the other stores not change prices and given that all other things equal The result of probabilities shows that lower prices will affect positive to probabilities of choosing store to make delivery order from customers However, the affects is negligible 40 The Chart 4.1 Probabilities of being chosen of stores when GREEN changes its price 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 20000 40000 60000 pr(beets) 80000 100000 pr(greeen) 120000 140000 pr(W) The Chart 4.2 Probabilities of being chosen of stores when BEETS changes its price 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 20000 40000 60000 pr(beets) 80000 pr(greeen) 41 100000 120000 pr(W) 140000 The Chart 4.3 Probabilities of being chosen of stores when WOWBOX changes its price 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 20000 40000 60000 pr(beets) 80000 pr(greeen) 100000 120000 140000 pr(W) Applying the probability functions for delivery fee changing from to 30 000 VND for each restaurant, and the other stores not change prices and given that all other things equal In the contrast of the effects of changing prices, the probabilities of being chosen of stores when changes delivery fee is significant In details, Beets will have 0.9 probabilities of being chosen if their delivery is zero, but if they increase the fee to 30 000 VND, then the probabilities will drop to 0.3 It is also has the same affects to probabilities choosing Greens and Wowbox, the probabilities of both restaurant will decrease around 0.3 to zero from the rank of delivery fee changing from to 30 000 VND The last but not least, changing in minimum order value has a significant effects to the probabilities of being chosen of stores, the lower minimum order request, the higher probabilities to being chosen, given that all other things equal To make it clear, all of three stores will get the highest probabilities of being chosen in case they not require the minimum order value The detail of Chart which illustration the probabilities of being chosen of stores when changes delivery fee and minimum order value request will be presented in Appendix 42 Chapter Conclusion and Suggestion The main purposes of this paper are identify the factors which effecting to consumer’s selection and the mechanisms and current situation of food delivery services in Vietnam Using econometric model RUM to analyze the behavior of consumers to each alternative options Based on theory random utility, utility depends on the product attributes and consumer choice of products in the collection of the same products in the market depending on the utility from each category and products provided the highest utility will be selected This study was conducted with 97 consumers in Ho Chi Minh City The methodology was a combination between the qualitative and quantitative methods To collect the necessary information for research purposes, the real orders from 97 consumers was used including information about gender, location, nationally, and the properties of products and suppliers that consumers are interested The regression models (RUM) used to evaluate the factors effecting to the choice of consumers The conclusion covers some key results, the contribution of this study, recommendations and restrictions 5.1 Conclusion The result of this study said that the prices of products might not affect to the customer’s decision to order food online The price variable was not signification in the result of regression model However, the result showing consumer’s interest could be affected by other barriers, in details, the request of minimum value of order and delivery fee It could be true, when they said that the customers willing to accept the prices of products, but they considering about the extra cost which has been added to their orders for delivery In addition, the customers who ordering salad for delivery were an expats living and working in Ho Chi Minh City 5.2 Suggestion This paper provides information to restaurants for better overview of salad delivery market in Ho Chi Minh City and the factors really affect to choice of consumers The restaurant could be amend their strategy in order to improve business’s efficiency and estimate the probabilities of customer’s select their products change in case they changes their properties, for 43 example, delivery fee, given that all other things equal Also noted that the other suppliers not change their fee The hypothesize probabilities was calculated and presented in appendix 5.2 Limitations This study was conducted in Ho Chi Minh City only with a sample size of 97 people so the results will not be representative of the entire area that needs more intensive studies with larger sample sizes 44 Reference list Bech-Larsen, T., & Grunert, K G (2003) The perceived healthiness of functional foods: A conjoint study of Danish, Finnish and American consumers' perception of functional foods Appetite, 40(1), 9-14 Brucks, M., V A Zeithamland G Naylor 2000 “Price and Brand Names as Indicators of Quality Dimensions for Consumer Durables.” Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 28:359-74 Caswell, JA, Ning,Y, Liu, Fand Mojduszka, EM (1996),“The Impact of New Labeling 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Appendix Probabilities of being chosen of stores when minimum order requirement changing Appendix Probabilities of being chosen of stores when the delivery fee changing Chapter Introduction 1.1 Problem... of B2C e-commerce in Vietnam Then, the paper aims at finding the key factors which impact to the choices of consumers The factors include:  prices  delivery fee  Minimum value of order Information... encapsulated in the food ordering, customers will have access to many suppliers in the various items Currently, Tango Juice restaurant is leading in providing food delivery service in HCMC according to