The economics of money, banking, and financial institutions 2nd ch05

Chapter The Behaviour of Interest Rates © 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc Determinants of Asset Demand © 2005 Pearson Education 5-2 Derivation of Bond Demand Curve e i = RET = (F – P) P Point A: P = $950 ($1000 – $950) i= = 0.053 = 5.3% $950 Bd = $100 billion © 2005 Pearson Education 5-3 Derivation of Bond Demand Curve Point B: P = $900 i= ($1000 – $900) = 0.111 = 11.1% $900 Bd = $200 billion Point C: P = $850, i = 17.6% Bd = $300 billion Point D: P = $800, i = 25.0% Bd = $400 billion Point E: P = $750, i = 33.0% Bd = $500 billion Demand Curve is Bd in Figure which connects points A, B, C, D, E Has usual downward slope © 2005 Pearson Education 5-4 Derivation of Bond Supply Curve Point F: P = $750, i = 33.0%, Bs = $100 billion Point G: P = $800, i = 25.0%, Bs = $200 billion Point C: P = $850, i = 17.6%, Bs = $300 billion Point H: P = $900, i = 11.1%, Bs = $400 billion Point I: P = $950, i = 5.3%, Bs = $500 billion Supply Curve is Bs that connects points F, G, C, H, I, and has upward slope © 2005 Pearson Education 5-5 Supply and Demand Analysis of the Bond Market Market Equilibrium d s Occurs when B = B , at P* = $850, i* = 17.6% s When P = $950, i = 5.3%, B > d B (excess supply): P ↓ to P*, i ↑to i* d When P = $750, i = 33.0, B > s B (excess demand): P ↑ to P*, i ↓ to i* © 2005 Pearson Education 5-6 Loanable Funds Terminology Demand for bonds = supply of loanable funds Supply of bonds = demand for loanable funds © 2005 Pearson Education 5-7 Shifts in the Bond Demand Curve © 2005 Pearson Education 5-8 Factors that Shift the Bond Demand Curve Wealth A Economy grows, wealth ↑, Bd ↑, Bd shifts out to right Expected Return A i ↓ in future, Re for long-term bonds ↑, Bd shifts out to right B πe ↓, Relative Re ↑, Bd shifts out to right C Expected return of other assests ↑, Bd ↑, Bd shifts out to right Risk A Risk of bonds ↓, Bd ↑, Bd shifts out to right B Risk of other assets ↑, Bd ↑, Bd shifts out to right Liquidity A Liquidity of Bonds ↑, Bd ↑, Bd shifts out to right B Liquidity of other assets ↓, Bd ↑, Bd shifts out to right © 2005 Pearson Education 5-9 Factors that Shift Demand Curve for Bonds © 2005 Pearson Education 5-10 Factors that Shift Supply Curve for Bonds © 2005 Pearson Education 5-12 Changes in πe: the Fisher Effect If π e ↑ Relative RETe ↓, Bd shifts in to left Bs ↑, Bs shifts out to right P ↓, i ↑ © 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc 5-13 Evidence on the Fisher Effect © 2005 Pearson Education 5-14 Business Cycle Expansion Wealth ↑, Bd ↑, Bd shifts out to right Investment ↑, Bs ↑, Bs shifts out to right If Bs shifts more than Bd then P ↓, i ↑ © 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc 5-15 Evidence on Business Cycles and Interest Rates © 2005 Pearson Education 5-16 Relation of Liquidity Preference Framework to Loanable Funds Keynes’s Major Assumption Two Categories of Assets in Wealth Money Bonds Thus: Ms + Bs = Wealth Budget Constraint: Bd + Md = Wealth Therefore: Ms + Bs = Bd + Md Subtracting Md and Bs from both sides: M s – M d = B d – Bs Money Market Equilibrium Occurs when Md = Ms Then Md – Ms = which implies that Bd – Bs = 0, so that Bd = Bs and bond market is also in equilibrium © 2005 Pearson Education 5-17 Equating supply and demand for bonds as in loanable funds framework is equivalent to equating supply and demand for money as in liquidity preference framework Two frameworks are closely linked, but differ in practice because liquidity preference assumes only two assets, money and bonds, and ignores effects on interest rates from changes in expected returns on real assets © 2005 Pearson Education 5-18 Liquidity Preference Analysis Derivation of Demand Curve Keynes assumed money has i = As i ↑, relative RETe on money ↓ (equivalently, opportunity cost of money ↑) ⇒ Md ↓ Demand curve for money has usual downward slope Derivation of Supply curve Assume that central bank controls Ms and it is a fixed amount Ms curve is vertical line Market Equilibrium Occurs when Md = Ms, at i* = 15% If i = 25%, Ms > Md (excess supply): Price of bonds ↑, i ↓ to i* = 15% If i =5%, Md > Ms (excess demand): Price of bonds ↓, i ↑ to i* = 15% © 2005 Pearson Education 5-19 Money Market Equilibrium © 2005 Pearson Education 5-20 Rise in Income or the Price Level Income ↑, Md ↑, Md shifts out to right Ms unchanged i* rises from i1 to i2 © 2005 Pearson Education 5-21 Rise in Money Supply Ms ↑, Ms shifts out to right Md unchanged i* falls from i1 to i2 © 2005 Pearson Education 5-22 © 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc 5-23 Money and Interest Rates Effects of money on interest rates Liquidity Effect Ms ↑, Ms shifts right, i ↓ Income Effect Ms ↑, Income ↑, Md ↑, Md shifts right, i ↑ Price Level Effect Ms ↑, Price level ↑, Md ↑, Md shifts right, i ↑ Expected Inflation Effect Ms ↑, π e ↑, Bd ↓, Bs ↑, Fisher effect, i ↑ Effect of higher rate of money growth on interest rates is ambiguous Because income, price level and expected inflation effects work in opposite direction of liquidity effect © 2005 Pearson Education 5-24 Does Higher Money Growth Lower Interest Rates? © 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc 5-25 Evidence on Money Growth and Interest Rates © 2005 Pearson Education 5-26 ... return of other assests ↑, Bd ↑, Bd shifts out to right Risk A Risk of bonds ↓, Bd ↑, Bd shifts out to right B Risk of other assets ↑, Bd ↑, Bd shifts out to right Liquidity A Liquidity of Bonds... 33.0, B > s B (excess demand): P ↑ to P*, i ↓ to i* © 2005 Pearson Education 5-6 Loanable Funds Terminology Demand for bonds = supply of loanable funds Supply of bonds = demand for loanable funds... Supply Curve is Bs that connects points F, G, C, H, I, and has upward slope © 2005 Pearson Education 5-5 Supply and Demand Analysis of the Bond Market Market Equilibrium d s Occurs when B = B