Chapter The Stock Market, The Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis © 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc Computing the Price of Common Stock • Basic Principle of Finance Value of Investment = Present Value of Future Cash Flows • One-Period Valuation Model Div1 P1 P0 = + (1 + ke ) (1 + ke ) © 2005 Pearson Education (1) 7-2 Generalized Dividend Valuation Model Dn Pn D1 D2 P0 = + +K + + n (1 + ke ) (1 + ke ) (1 + ke ) (1 + ke ) n (2) • Since last term of the equation is small, Equation can be written as ∞ Dt P0 = ∑ t (1 + k ) t =1 e © 2005 Pearson Education (3) 7-3 Gordon Growth Model • Assuming dividend growth is constant, Equation can be written as D0 × (1 + g )1 D0 × (1 + g ) D0 × (1 + g ) ∞ (4) P0 = + +K + ∞ (1 + ke ) (1 + ke ) (1 + ke ) • Assuming the growth rate is less than the required return on equity, Equation can be written as P = D0 × (1 + g ) = D1 (5) ( ke − g ) © 2005 Pearson Education (ke − g ) 7-4 Theory of Rational Expectations Rational expectation (RE) = expectation that is optimal forecast (best prediction of future) using all available information: i.e., RE ⇒ Xe = Xof reasons expectation may not be rational Not best prediction Not using available information Rational expectation, although optimal prediction, may not be accurate Rational expectations makes sense because is costly not to have optimal forecast Implications: Change in way variable moves, way expectations are formed changes Forecast errors on average = and are not predictable © 2005 Pearson Education 7-5 Efficient Markets Hypothesis Pt+1 – Pt + C RET = Pt Pet+1 – Pt + C RETe = Pt Rational Expectations implies: Pet+1 = Poft+1 ⇒ RETe = RETof (1) Market equilibrium RETe = RET* (2) Put (1) and (2) together: Efficient Markets Hypothesis RETof = RET* Why the Efficient Markets Hypothesis makes sense If RETof > RET* ⇒ Pt ↑, RETof ↓ If RETof < RET* ⇒ Pt ↓, RETof ↑ until RETof = RET* All unexploited profit opportunities eliminated Efficient Market holds even if are uninformed, irrational participants in © 2005 Pearson Education market 7-6 Evidence on Efficient Markets Hypothesis Favorable Evidence Investment analysts and mutual funds don’t beat the market Stock prices reflect publicly available information: anticipated announcements don’t affect stock price Stock prices and exchange rates close to random walk If predictions of ∆P big, Rof > R* ⇒ predictions of ∆P small Technical analysis does not outperform market Unfavorable Evidence Small-firm effect: small firms have abnormally high returns January effect: high returns in January Market overreaction Excessive volatility Mean reversion New information is not always immediately incorporated into stock prices Overview Reasonable starting point but not whole story © 2005 Pearson Education 7-7 Implications for Investing Published reports of financial analysts not very valuable Should be skeptical of hot tips Stock prices may fall on good news Prescription for investor Shouldn’t try to outguess market Therefore, buy and hold Diversify with no-load mutual fund Evidence on Rational Expectations in Other Markets Bond markets appear efficient Evidence with survey data is mixed Skepticism about quality of data Following implication is supported: change in way variable moves, way expectations are formed changes © 2005 Pearson Education 7-8 ... (1) and (2) together: Efficient Markets Hypothesis RETof = RET* Why the Efficient Markets Hypothesis makes sense If RETof > RET* ⇒ Pt ↑, RETof ↓ If RETof < RET* ⇒ Pt ↓, RETof ↑ until RETof =...Computing the Price of Common Stock • Basic Principle of Finance Value of Investment = Present Value of Future Cash Flows • One-Period Valuation Model... reports of financial analysts not very valuable Should be skeptical of hot tips Stock prices may fall on good news Prescription for investor Shouldn’t try to outguess market Therefore, buy and hold