Áp dụng phương pháp umos để cải thiện dự báo pha mưa trên khu vực việt nam

0.055*vmean + 0.050*obs + -0.096*td700 0.209 + 0.106*rain + 0.216*eptmean + 0.055*u850 + 0.055*vmean + 0.049*obs + -0.093*td700 0.208 + 0.107*rain + 0.218*eptmean + -0.056*vmean + 0.053*u850 + 0.049*obs + -0.094*td700 0.239 + 0.111*rain + 0.127*eptmean + -0.075*vmean + 0.022*ttd2m + 0.052*obs + 0.034*advvormean 0.238 + 0.110*rain + 0.128*eptmean + -0.076*vmean + 0.022*ttd2m + 0.051*obs + 0.033*advvormean xxvi PHỤ LỤC 10 Minh họa biến đổi phƣơng trình dự báo RV trạm Hà Nội hạn dự báo 24giờ với mô hình WRF-ARW 2015053100 0.2161 2015060700 0.2121 2015061300 0.1982 2015062100 0.211 2015062800 0.2127 2015070200 0.2168 2015071200 0.216 2015071900 0.2107 2015072400 0.2094 2015080200 0.2032 2015080900 0.2133 2015081600 0.2145 2015082300 0.2159 2015083000 0.2138 2015090600 0.2148 2015091300 2015092000 0.1872 0.1888 2015092700 0.1805 2015100400 0.2467 2015101100 0.2614 2015101800 0.264 0.491 + 0.162*qmean + -0.107*ttd2m + 0.063*obs + 0.054*wind700 + -0.046*gradttdx500 0.493 + 0.161*qmean + -0.101*ttd2m + 0.066*obs + 0.055*wind700 + -0.044*gradttdx500 0.575 + 0.293*qmean + -0.078*u10m + 0.069*obs + -0.125*td700 0.495 + 0.263*qmean + -0.102*ttd2m + 0.068*obs + 0.062*wind700 + -0.113*td700 0.493 + 0.265*qmean + -0.106*ttd2m + 0.067*obs + 0.061*wind700 + -0.115*td700 0.492 + 0.267*qmean + -0.107*ttd2m + 0.068*obs + 0.062*wind700 + -0.116*td700 0.490 + 0.162*qmean + -0.102*ttd2m + 0.068*obs + 0.053*wind700 + -0.047*gradttdx500 0.491 + 0.162*qmean + -0.102*ttd2m + 0.065*obs + 0.051*wind700 + -0.045*gradttdx500 0.492 + 0.163*qmean + -0.103*ttd2m + 0.062*obs + 0.051*wind700 + -0.045*gradttdx500 0.494 + 0.165*qmean + -0.105*ttd2m + 0.064*obs + 0.053*wind700 0.494 + 0.167*qmean + -0.101*ttd2m + 0.063*obs + 0.052*wind700 + -0.045*gradttdx500 0.570 + 0.300*qmean + -0.078*u10m + 0.067*obs + -0.127*td700 + -0.047*gradttdx500 0.569 + 0.304*qmean + -0.080*u10m + 0.068*obs + -0.131*td700 + -0.047*gradttdx500 0.568 + 0.306*qmean + -0.079*u10m + 0.066*obs + -0.133*td700 + -0.047*gradttdx500 0.571 + 0.312*qmean + -0.081*u10m + 0.064*obs + -0.137*td700 + -0.046*gradttdx500 0.573 + 0.191*qmean + -0.074*u10m + 0.098*obs + -0.063*td700 0.574 + 0.192*qmean + -0.075*u10m + 0.097*obs + -0.063*td700 0.542 + 0.123*qmean + -0.063*u10m + 0.103*obs + 0.064*wind700 0.450 + 0.098*obs + 0.079*q850 + 0.058*wind700 + 0.040*gradty850 + 0.075*qmean + -0.060*u10m 0.354 + 0.106*obs + 0.187*q850 + 0.069*wind850 + -0.092*t2m + -0.039*gradty850 + 0.023*div700 0.343 + 0.107*obs + 0.185*q850 + 0.017*wind700 + 0.036*gradty850 + 0.058*wind850 + -0.085*t2m + 0.025*div700 xxvii 2015102500 0.2776 2015110100 0.2794 2015110800 0.2726 2015111200 0.2732 2015112200 0.271 2015112900 0.2779 2015120600 0.2722 2015121300 0.28 2015122000 0.2711 2015122700 0.2694 0.346 + 0.118*obs + 0.140*q850 + 0.105*wind850 + -0.077*t2m + -0.061*gradty850 + -0.048*u10m 0.347 + 0.119*obs + 0.107*wind850 + 0.140*q850 + -0.079*t2m + -0.061*gradty850 + -0.047*u10m 0.349 + 0.119*obs + 0.139*q850 + 0.104*wind850 + -0.075*t2m + -0.059*gradty850 + -0.047*u10m 0.350 + 0.118*obs + 0.151*q850 + 0.101*wind850 + -0.082*t2m + -0.055*gradty850 + 0.045*div700 0.351 + 0.118*obs + 0.151*q850 + 0.099*wind850 + -0.082*t2m + -0.056*gradty850 + 0.045*div700 0.350 + 0.121*obs + 0.143*q850 + 0.094*wind850 + -0.076*t2m + -0.059*gradty850 + -0.046*u10m + 0.043*div700 0.350 + 0.121*obs + 0.139*q850 + 0.103*wind850 + -0.074*t2m + -0.060*gradty850 + -0.050*u10m 0.351 + 0.118*obs + 0.098*wind850 + 0.143*q850 + -0.079*t2m + -0.063*gradty850 + -0.046*u10m + 0.043*div700 0.349 + 0.118*obs + 0.105*wind850 + 0.139*q850 + -0.074*t2m + -0.062*gradty850 + -0.049*u10m 0.349 + 0.118*obs + 0.107*wind850 + 0.139*q850 + -0.075*t2m + -0.060*gradty850 + -0.048*u10m xxviii PHỤ LỤC 11 Minh họa biến đổi phƣơng trình dự báo RV trạm Vinh hạn dự báo 24giờ với mô hình WRF-ARW 2015053100 0.2892 2015060700 0.2916 2015061300 0.2936 2015062100 0.2933 2015062800 0.3023 2015070200 0.3035 2015071200 0.2985 2015071900 0.2915 2015072400 0.2866 2015080200 0.3037 2015080900 0.3088 2015081600 0.3092 2015082300 0.307 2015083000 0.3078 2015090600 0.3074 2015091300 0.2974 2015092000 0.3031 2015092700 0.2893 2015100400 0.338 0.340 + 0.289*rhmean + -0.081*u850 + 0.052*wind500 + 0.072*rain + -0.142*tdmean + 0.053*obs 0.339 + 0.288*rhmean + -0.082*u850 + 0.053*wind500 + 0.071*rain + -0.141*tdmean + 0.054*obs 0.338 + 0.288*rhmean + -0.082*u850 + 0.053*wind500 + 0.071*rain + -0.142*tdmean + 0.054*obs 0.338 + 0.289*rhmean + -0.082*u850 + 0.052*wind500 + 0.071*rain + -0.141*tdmean + 0.053*obs 0.341 + 0.290*rhmean + -0.084*u850 + 0.046*wind500 + 0.057*obs + 0.063*rain + -0.137*tdmean + 0.039*advq500 0.342 + 0.289*rhmean + -0.083*u850 + 0.046*wind500 + 0.057*obs + 0.063*rain + -0.138*tdmean + 0.039*advq500 0.391 + 0.264*rhmean + -0.037*u850 + 0.053*wind500 + 0.079*rain + -0.130*tdmean + 0.050*obs + -0.039*ttd2m 0.336 + 0.289*rhmean + -0.075*u850 + 0.052*wind500 + 0.077*rain + -0.145*tdmean + 0.054*obs 0.333 + 0.270*rhmean + -0.079*u850 + 0.054*wind500 + 0.078*rain + 0.055*obs + -0.130*tdmean 0.393 + 0.272*rhmean + -0.036*u850 + 0.051*wind500 + 0.054*obs + 0.079*rain + -0.139*tdmean + -0.040*ttd2m 0.396 + 0.276*rhmean + -0.035*u850 + 0.050*wind500 + 0.056*obs + 0.081*rain + -0.142*tdmean + -0.040*ttd2m 0.395 + 0.279*rhmean + -0.036*u850 + 0.049*wind500 + 0.054*obs + 0.081*rain + -0.144*tdmean + -0.040*ttd2m 0.365 + 0.299*rhmean + -0.053*u850 + 0.049*wind500 + 0.060*obs + 0.076*rain + -0.187*tdmean + 0.070*rh850 0.364 + 0.303*rhmean + -0.053*u850 + 0.049*wind500 + 0.061*obs + 0.075*rain + -0.189*tdmean + 0.069*rh850 0.363 + 0.307*rhmean + -0.052*u850 + 0.049*wind500 + 0.058*obs + 0.074*rain + -0.193*tdmean + 0.070*rh850 0.449 + 0.104*obs + 0.080*rh850 + 0.076*rain + 0.018*wind500 + 0.172*rhmean + -0.090*tdmean + -0.045*ttd2m + 0.015*advq500 0.449 + 0.104*obs + 0.081*rh850 + 0.074*rain + 0.019*wind500 + 0.172*rhmean + -0.089*tdmean + -0.045*ttd2m + 0.016*advq500 0.436 + 0.118*obs + 0.078*rh850 + 0.069*rain + 0.015*wind500 + 0.133*rhmean + -0.057*tdmean + -0.034*ttd2m + -0.030*u850 0.456 + 0.144*obs + 0.129*rh850 + 0.094*rain + xxix 2015101100 0.3394 2015101800 0.3384 2015102500 0.3452 2015110100 0.3504 2015110800 0.3516 2015111200 0.3523 2015112200 0.3537 2015112900 0.3507 2015120600 0.3478 2015121300 0.3482 2015122000 0.3432 2015122700 0.3404 0.085*gradvy850 + 0.031*gradttdx850 + 0.044*dt87 0.466 + 0.146*obs + 0.123*rh850 + 0.090*rain + 0.092*gradvy850 + 0.042*gradttdx850 + 0.048*dt87 0.464 + 0.148*obs + 0.119*rh850 + 0.092*rain + 0.089*gradvy850 + 0.040*gradttdx850 + 0.046*dt87 0.483 + 0.154*obs + 0.111*rh850 + 0.090*rain + 0.097*gradvy850 + 0.053*gradttdx850 + 0.057*dt87 0.484 + 0.153*obs + 0.110*rh850 + 0.091*rain + 0.097*gradvy850 + 0.051*gradttdx850 + 0.057*dt87 0.485 + 0.155*obs + 0.110*rh850 + 0.091*rain + 0.096*gradvy850 + 0.051*gradttdx850 + 0.058*dt87 0.483 + 0.157*obs + 0.108*rh850 + 0.092*rain + 0.097*gradvy850 + 0.051*gradttdx850 + 0.057*dt87 0.483 + 0.158*obs + 0.108*rh850 + 0.092*rain + 0.096*gradvy850 + 0.051*gradttdx850 + 0.056*dt87 0.482 + 0.162*obs + 0.092*rh850 + 0.091*rain + 0.090*gradvy850 + 0.052*gradttdx850 + -0.052*ttd2m 0.481 + 0.161*obs + 0.092*rh850 + 0.093*rain + 0.088*gradvy850 + 0.052*gradttdx850 + -0.052*ttd2m 0.478 + 0.165*obs + 0.088*rh850 + 0.094*rain + 0.088*gradvy850 + 0.052*gradttdx850 + -0.050*ttd2m 0.474 + 0.169*obs + 0.087*rh850 + 0.092*rain + 0.083*gradvy850 + 0.051*gradttdx850 + -0.053*ttd2m 0.474 + 0.168*obs + 0.088*rh850 + 0.093*rain + 0.080*gradvy850 + 0.051*gradttdx850 + -0.052*ttd2m xxx ...PHỤ LỤC 10 Minh họa biến đổi phƣơng trình dự báo RV trạm Hà Nội hạn dự báo 24giờ với mô hình WRF-ARW 2015053100 0.2161 2015060700 0.2121 2015061300 0.1982... + -0.060*gradty850 + -0.048*u10m xxviii PHỤ LỤC 11 Minh họa biến đổi phƣơng trình dự báo RV trạm Vinh hạn dự báo 24giờ với mô hình WRF-ARW 2015053100 0.2892 2015060700 0.2916 2015061300 0.2936