Nghiên cứu ứng dụng lý thuyết người đại diện trong quản trị ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam

Header Page of 148 Bộ giáo dục đào tạo Trờng đại học kinh tế quốc dân phạm bảo khánh NGHIÊN CứU ứnG Dụng Lý THUYếT NGƯờI ĐạI DIệN TRONG QUảN TRị NGÂN HàNG THƯƠNG MạI VIệT NAM Chuyên ngành: Tài - Ngân hàng M số: 62 34 02 01 LUậN áN TIếN Sĩ KINH Tế Ngời hớng dẫn khoa học: PGS.TS TRầN THị THANH Tú tS BùI KHắC SƠN Hà Nội - 2015 Footer Page of 148 Header Page of 148 ii LI CAM OAN Tụi xin cam oan Lun ỏn ny l cụng trỡnh nghiờn cu c lp ca tụi Cỏc s liu, t liu c s dng Lun ỏn cú ngun gc rừ rng v trung thc Cỏc ỏnh giỏ, kt lun khoa hc ca Lun ỏn cha c ngi khỏc cụng b bt c cụng trỡnh no Tỏc gi Lun ỏn Phm Bo Khỏnh Footer Page of 148 Header Page of 148 iii LI CM N Lun ỏn ny l kt qu nghiờn cu nghiờm tỳc ca tỏc gi bng s c gng v n lc ca bn thõn Bờn cnh ú, hon thnh Lun ỏn, tỏc gi ó nhn c nhiu s khớch l, ng viờn v giỳp ca nhiu ngi Trc ht, tỏc gi xin c gi li cm n ti cỏc thnh viờn gia ỡnh ó luụn ng viờn, chia s cụng vic v to iu kin cho tỏc gi hon thnh Lun ỏn Tỏc gi Lun ỏn xin c gi li cm n cỏc Thy cụ ó luụn quan tõm dỡu dt, cung cp cỏc kin thc chuyờn mụn quỏ trỡnh thc hin ti ny Xin c chõn thnh cm n Thy, Cụ giỏo hng dn PGS.TS Trn Th Thanh Tỳ v TS Bựi Khc Sn ó khớch l, ng viờn v hng dn tỏc gi thc hin Lun ỏn c bit, PGS.TS Trn Th Thanh Tỳ ó to mi iu kin cú th tỏc gi tham gia vo cỏc hot ng, d ỏn nghiờn cu ca cỏc trng i hc, vin nghiờn cu, úng gúp nhng ý kin, nh hng quý bỏu, cho phộp tỏc gi s dng mt phn kt qu nghiờn cu cỏc ti m tỏc gi tham gia v nht l ó to ngun cm hng, ng lc v tớnh kiờn trỡ cho tỏc gi hot ng nghiờn cu Nu khụng cú nhng yu t ny, tỏc gi khụng th hon thnh lun ỏn thc hin thnh cụng ti ny, tỏc gi Lun ỏn ó nhn c nhiu s quan tõm, chia s v giỳp ca nhiu Thy, Cụ giỏo v ng nghip Nhõn dp ny, xin c gi li tri õn v cm n sõu sc n cỏc Thy, Cụ Tỏc gi Lun ỏn cng xin c by t lũng cm n n o Hi Ninh, Trn Quc Huy, Bựi Lan Anh, Nguyn Qunh Liờn ngi cú cựng s quan tõm nghiờn cu v qun tr cụng ty ó tham gia úng gúp ý kin v h tr tỏc gi sut quỏ trỡnh lm lun ỏn Tỏc gi xin c cm n n Ban lónh o v cỏc ng nghip ang cụng tỏc ti Bo him tin gi Vit Nam ó luụn giỳp , quan tõm v chia s quỏ trỡnh tỏc gi thc hin ti Nhõn dp ny, tỏc gi cng xin c gi li cm n n cỏc cỏn b ca Vin o to SH, Trng i hc KTQD ó luụn ng viờn v tn tỡnh h tr, to iu kin cho nghiờn cu sinh hon thnh Lun ỏn./ Tỏc gi Lun ỏn Footer Page of 148 Header Page of 148 iv Phm Bo Khỏnh Footer Page of 148 Header Page of 148 v MC LC LI CAM OAN ii LI CM N iii MC LC v DANH MC BNG BIU, S viii DANH MC HèNH ix M U CHNG 1: TNG QUAN V Lí THUYT NGI I DIN TRONG QUN TR NGN HNG 1.1 Lý thuyt ngi i din .9 1.1.1 Khỏi nim qun tr cụng ty .9 1.1.2 Lý thuyt ngi i din 10 1.2 Tng quan nghiờn cu v lý thuyt ngi i din 12 1.2.1 Bn cht v cỏc loi mõu thun li ớch 12 1.2.2 Cỏch thc gii quyt mõu thun 16 1.3 Tng quan nghiờn cu v lý thuyt ngi i din qun tr ngõn hng 24 1.3.1 c trng ca ngõn hng thng mi 24 1.3.2 Tng quan nghiờn cu v lý thuyt ngi i din qun tr ngõn hng thng mi 25 1.4 Nghiờn cu v lý thuyt ngi i din ngõn hng Vit Nam 32 Kt lun chng 34 CHNG 2: PHNG PHP V D LIU NGHIấN CU 36 2.1 Gi thuyt nghiờn cu 36 2.2 Phng phỏp nghiờn cu nh tớnh 37 2.3 Phng phỏp nghiờn cu nh lng 38 2.3.1 Mụ hỡnh nghiờn cu, cỏc bin v thang o 38 2.3.2 Phng phỏp hi quy 41 Footer Page of 148 Header Page of 148 vi 2.4 D liu nghiờn cu 44 2.4.1 Ngun d liu 44 2.4.2 Mụ t d liu 45 Kt lun chng 48 CHNG 3: KT QU PHN TCH Lí THUYT NGI I DIN TRONG H THNG NGN HNG VIT NAM THEO PHNG PHP NH TNH 49 3.1 H thng ngõn hng Vit Nam giai on 2010 2012 49 3.2 Qun tr ngõn hng thng mi h thng ngõn hng Vit Nam 54 3.3 Kt qu ỏnh giỏ v mõu thun li ớch gia ch s hu v ngi iu hnh Ngõn hng thng mi nh nc c c phn húa 59 3.3.1 Mõu thun li ớch gia ch s hu v ngi iu hnh .59 3.3.2 Kt qu ỏnh giỏ vai trũ ca HQT Ngõn hng thng mi nh nc c c phn húa 65 3.4 Kt qu ỏnh giỏ v mõu thun li ớch gia ch s hu v ngi iu hnh Ngõn hng thng mi c phn 73 3.4.1 Mõu thun li ớch gia ch s hu v ngi iu hnh 73 3.4.2 Kt qu ỏnh giỏ vai trũ ca HQT Ngõn hng thng mi c phn 78 Kt lun chng 87 CHNG 4: KT QU KIM NH Lí THUYT NGI I DIN TRONG H THNG NGN HNG VIT NAM THEO PHNG PHP NH LNG 89 4.1 Mõu thun li ớch theo lý thuyt ngi i din h thng ngõn hng Vit Nam 89 4.1.1 Kt qu gi thuyt 89 4.1.2 Kt qu gi thuyt 91 4.2.3 Phõn tớch kt qu gi thuyt v gi thuyt 94 Footer Page of 148 Header Page of 148 4.3 vii Vai trũ ca HQT vic gii quyt mõu thun li ớch theo lý thuyt ngi i din h thng ngõn hng Vit Nam 95 4.3.1 Kt qu gi thuyt 95 4.3.2 Kt qu gi thuyt .96 4.3.3 Phõn tớch kt qu gi thuyt v 97 Kt lun chng 98 CHNG 5: KT LUN V KHUYN NGH 99 5.1 Kt lun 99 5.2 Khuyn ngh 101 5.2.1 Khuyn ngh v chớnh sỏch 101 5.2.2 Khuyn ngh v vic ng dng lý thuyt ngi i din qun tr ngõn hng thng mi Vit Nam 105 5.3 Hn ch v hng nghiờn cu tip 106 DANH MụC CáC CÔNG TRìNH NGHIÊN CứU CủA TáC GIả LIÊN QUAN ĐếN Đề TàI LUậN áN 107 DANH MC TI LIU THAM KHO 109 PH LC 118 Footer Page of 148 Header Page of 148 viii DANH MC BNG BIU, S Bng 2.3: Bng ) Bng 2.1: Túm tt mụ hỡnh hi quy 41 Bng 2.2: Kt qu ch s CGIBOD 2010 2012 (im s ti a: 34) 46 Bng 2.3: Thng kờ mụ t s liu 47 Bng 3.1: Vn huy ng, vay tng ngun 54 Bng 3.2: T l s hu ca c ụng ln 60 Bng 3.3: T l s hu ca ban iu hnh 60 Bng 3.4: T l c tc 60 Bng 3.5: T l tham d i hi c ụng thng niờn (n v: %) 62 Bng 3.6: Kt qu b phiu ti i hi c ụng thng niờn 63 Bng 3.7: EPS v li nhun sau thu 73 Bng 3.8: Kt qu b phiu ti i hi C ụng thng niờn ca NHTM c phn 75 Bng 3.9: Thự lao HQT, ban kim soỏt v kt qu hot ng 77 Bng 4.1: Kt qu gi thuyt H1B 90 Bng 4.2: Kt qu gi thuyt H1C 91 Bng 4.3: Kt qu gi thuyt H2B 92 Bng 4.4: Kt qu gi thuyt H2C 93 Bng 4.5: Kt qu gi thuyt 95 Bng 4.6: Kt qu gi thuyt 96 Footer Page of 148 Header Page of 148 ix DANH MC HèNH Hỡnh 3.1 Cho vay trờn TT2 52 Hỡnh 3.2 Tng trng GDP v tng trng tớn dng 53 Hỡnh 3.3 S mi quan h gia HQT, c ụng, Ban kim soỏt, Ban iu hnh ca NHTM nh nc c phn húa 70 Hỡnh 3.4 S mi quan h gia HQT, c ụng, ban kim soỏt v ban iu hnh 83 Hỡnh 5.1 Footer Page of 148 Lý thuyt ngi i din ngõn hng Vit Nam 101 Header Page 10 of 148 M U Gii thiu lun ỏn Kt cu lun ỏn Lun ỏn gm chng chớnh, vi 109 trang, 18 bng biu, s , hỡnh v v 12 ph lc Chng gm 27 trang, trỡnh by lý thuyt ngi i din v tng quan nghiờn cu v lý thuyt ngi i din qun tr cụng ty v qun tr ngõn hng thng mi Kt qu nghiờn cu ca chng giỳp xõy dng gi thuyt nghiờn cu v xỏc nh c s lý thuyt cho vic nghiờn cu chng tip theo Chng gm 13 trang, trỡnh by phng phỏp v d liu nghiờn cu Chng gm 40 trang, trỡnh by kt qu nghiờn cu v mõu thun li ớch v vai trũ HQT ngõn hng Vit Nam theo phng phỏp nh tớnh Chng gm 10 trang, trỡnh by kt qu nghiờn cu v mõu thun li ớch v vai trũ HQT theo phng phỏp nh lng Chng gm trang, trờn c s kt qu chng v chng 4, a (i) cỏc kt lun v khuyn ngh v ni dung ca lý thuyt ngi i din bi cnh ngõn hng Vit Nam giai on 2010 2012, (ii) cỏc khuyn ngh chớnh sỏch nhm nõng cao hiu qu qun tr ngõn hng thng mi Vit Nam Cỏc kt qu chớnh lun ỏn ó t c úng gúp v mt lý lun Lun ỏn cung cp nhng bng chng thc nghim qun tr ngõn hng thng mi Vit Nam nhm lm rừ quan im ca lý thuyt ngi i din v bn cht mõu thun li ớch gia ch s hu v ngi i din v vai trũ kim soỏt ca HQT vic gii quyt mõu thun úng gúp v thc tin Lun ỏn lm rừ bn cht mõu thun li ớch gia ch s hu v ngi i din ngõn hng Vit Nam Footer Page 10 of 148 Header Page 158 of 148 145 Ph lc Kt qu gi thuyt H2B Hi quy gc Dependent Variable: COI Method: Least Squares Date: 05/15/15 Time: 15:03 Sample (adjusted): 115 Included observations: 62 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob X1HDQT CAPITAL LN_ASSETS C 21.86557 -0.039847 1.417325 65.87452 8.712495 0.127676 0.861724 16.77428 2.509680 -0.312097 1.644756 3.927114 0.0149 0.7561 0.1054 0.0002 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.187390 0.145359 5.296271 1626.928 -189.2609 4.458331 0.006930 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 92.33806 5.728993 6.234224 6.371458 6.288106 1.319409 Hi quy log Dependent Variable: LOG(COI) Method: Least Squares Date: 05/15/15 Time: 15:04 Sample (adjusted): 115 Included observations: 62 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob LOG(X1HDQT) LOG(CAPITAL) LN_ASSETS C 0.009562 0.030012 0.034558 3.877519 0.003156 0.028499 0.012973 0.282708 3.030054 1.053090 2.663723 13.71562 0.0036 0.2967 0.0100 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.210328 0.169483 0.060823 0.214571 87.67960 5.149398 0.003174 Footer Page 158 of 148 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 4.523372 0.066742 -2.699342 -2.562107 -2.645460 1.330872 Header Page 159 of 148 146 B bin CAPITAL Dependent Variable: LOG(COI) Method: Least Squares Date: 05/15/15 Time: 15:05 Sample (adjusted): 115 Included observations: 62 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob LOG(X1HDQT) LN_ASSETS C 0.007948 0.023129 4.145218 0.002761 0.007115 0.123825 2.878517 3.250771 33.47635 0.0056 0.0019 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.195229 0.167948 0.060880 0.218673 87.09245 7.156376 0.001649 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 4.523372 0.066742 -2.712660 -2.609734 -2.672249 1.391011 Kim nh t tng quan Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic Obs*R-squared 1.039285 2.181355 Prob F(2,57) Prob Chi-Square(2) 0.3603 0.3360 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 05/15/15 Time: 15:06 Sample: 115 Included observations: 62 Presample and interior missing value lagged residuals set to zero Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob LOG(X1HDQT) LN_ASSETS C RESID(-1) RESID(-2) -0.000921 -0.001980 0.032394 0.235210 -0.095862 0.002847 0.007468 0.129884 0.150991 0.163274 -0.323506 -0.265184 0.249404 1.557776 -0.587123 0.7475 0.7918 0.8039 0.1248 0.5594 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.035183 -0.032523 0.060839 0.210980 88.20278 0.519642 0.721605 Footer Page 159 of 148 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 7.05E-17 0.059873 -2.683961 -2.512418 -2.616609 1.855641 Header Page 160 of 148 147 Kim nh phng sai thay i Phng phỏp Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey F-statistic Obs*R-squared Scaled explained SS 4.993543 8.975583 20.43292 Prob F(2,59) Prob Chi-Square(2) Prob Chi-Square(2) 0.0099 0.0112 0.0000 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 05/15/15 Time: 15:06 Sample: 115 Included observations: 62 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C LOG(X1HDQT) LN_ASSETS 0.046488 -0.000694 -0.002577 0.015249 0.000340 0.000876 3.048570 -2.041458 -2.941039 0.0034 0.0457 0.0047 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.144767 0.115777 0.007497 0.003316 216.9425 4.993543 0.009919 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 0.003527 0.007973 -6.901372 -6.798446 -6.860961 1.394577 Phng phỏp Harvey Heteroskedasticity Test: Harvey F-statistic Obs*R-squared Scaled explained SS 1.299594 2.616100 2.689491 Prob F(2,59) Prob Chi-Square(2) Prob Chi-Square(2) 0.2803 0.2703 0.2606 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: LRESID2 Method: Least Squares Date: 05/15/15 Time: 15:06 Sample: 115 Included observations: 62 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C LOG(X1HDQT) LN_ASSETS 0.113745 -0.035296 -0.423070 4.596090 0.102487 0.264084 0.024748 -0.344394 -1.602028 0.9803 0.7318 0.1145 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.042195 0.009727 2.259702 301.2688 -136.9811 1.299594 0.280332 Footer Page 160 of 148 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat -7.280027 2.270773 4.515520 4.618446 4.555931 1.796581 Header Page 161 of 148 148 Kim nh RAMSEY RESET Ramsey RESET Test Equation: H2B Specification: LOG(COI) LOG(X1HDQT) LN_ASSETS C Omitted Variables: Squares of fitted values t-statistic F-statistic Likelihood ratio Value 1.528523 2.336382 2.448520 df 58 (1, 58) Probability 0.1318 0.1318 0.1176 Sum of Sq 0.008468 0.218673 0.210206 0.210206 df 59 58 58 Mean Squares 0.008468 0.003706 0.003624 0.003624 Value 87.09245 88.31671 df 59 58 F-test summary: Test SSR Restricted SSR Unrestricted SSR Unrestricted SSR LR test summary: Restricted LogL Unrestricted LogL Unrestricted Test Equation: Dependent Variable: LOG(COI) Method: Least Squares Date: 09/29/15 Time: 14:03 Sample: 115 Included observations: 62 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob LOG(X1HDQT) LN_ASSETS C FITTED^2 0.655903 1.909431 158.2130 -9.036862 0.423918 1.234089 100.7953 5.912154 1.547240 1.547239 1.569647 -1.528523 0.1272 0.1272 0.1219 0.1318 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Footer Page 161 of 148 0.226392 0.186377 0.060202 0.210206 88.31671 5.657775 0.001806 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 4.523372 0.066742 -2.719894 -2.582660 -2.666012 1.591157 Header Page 162 of 148 149 Ph lc 10 Kt qu gi thuyt H2C Hi quy gc Dependent Variable: COI Method: Least Squares Date: 05/15/15 Time: 15:10 Sample (adjusted): 115 Included observations: 54 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob X1TONG CAPITAL LN_ASSETS C 17.99011 -0.040537 1.390673 66.65949 7.722514 0.133141 0.883875 17.28473 2.329566 -0.304469 1.573382 3.856554 0.0239 0.7620 0.1219 0.0003 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.205796 0.158144 5.240849 1373.325 -163.9948 4.318703 0.008753 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 92.69241 5.711927 6.222031 6.369363 6.278851 1.335499 Hi quy log Dependent Variable: LOG(COI) Method: Least Squares Date: 05/15/15 Time: 15:11 Sample (adjusted): 115 Included observations: 54 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob LOG(X1TONG) LOG(CAPITAL) LN_ASSETS C 0.011861 0.040776 0.039969 3.762312 0.004068 0.031501 0.014354 0.313093 2.915838 1.294423 2.784478 12.01660 0.0053 0.2015 0.0076 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.229251 0.183006 0.060517 0.183117 76.91595 4.957331 0.004331 Footer Page 162 of 148 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 4.527207 0.066953 -2.700591 -2.553259 -2.643771 1.306289 Header Page 163 of 148 150 B bin CAPITAL Dependent Variable: LOG(COI) Method: Least Squares Date: 05/15/15 Time: 15:12 Sample (adjusted): 115 Included observations: 54 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob LOG(X1TONG) LN_ASSETS C 0.008969 0.024048 4.131793 0.003422 0.007449 0.129499 2.621188 3.228311 31.90599 0.0115 0.0022 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.203423 0.172185 0.060917 0.189253 76.02600 6.511975 0.003029 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 4.527207 0.066953 -2.704667 -2.594167 -2.662051 1.377334 Kim nh t tng quan Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic Obs*R-squared 0.836518 1.782879 Prob F(2,49) Prob Chi-Square(2) 0.4393 0.4101 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 05/15/15 Time: 15:13 Sample: 115 Included observations: 54 Presample and interior missing value lagged residuals set to zero Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob LOG(X1TONG) LN_ASSETS C RESID(-1) RESID(-2) -0.001372 -0.002529 0.041439 0.268003 -0.110590 0.003591 0.007975 0.138379 0.171840 0.181295 -0.382001 -0.317073 0.299462 1.559613 -0.610000 0.7041 0.7525 0.7659 0.1253 0.5447 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.033016 -0.045921 0.061113 0.183005 76.93248 0.418259 0.794664 Footer Page 163 of 148 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 5.62E-16 0.059756 -2.664166 -2.480001 -2.593141 1.918549 Header Page 164 of 148 151 Kim nh phng sai thay i Phng phỏp Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey F-statistic Obs*R-squared Scaled explained SS 4.251660 7.716868 22.18170 Prob F(2,51) Prob Chi-Square(2) Prob Chi-Square(2) 0.0196 0.0211 0.0000 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 05/15/15 Time: 15:13 Sample: 115 Included observations: 54 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C LOG(X1TONG) LN_ASSETS 0.051660 -0.000852 -0.002877 0.018019 0.000476 0.001036 2.867062 -1.789813 -2.775918 0.0060 0.0794 0.0077 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.142905 0.109293 0.008476 0.003664 182.5285 4.251660 0.019599 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 0.003505 0.008981 -6.649205 -6.538705 -6.606589 1.513198 Phng phỏp Harvey Heteroskedasticity Test: Harvey F-statistic Obs*R-squared Scaled explained SS 1.230944 2.486667 2.435620 Prob F(2,51) Prob Chi-Square(2) Prob Chi-Square(2) 0.3005 0.2884 0.2959 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C LOG(X1TONG) LN_ASSETS -1.245911 -0.142258 -0.378068 4.697163 0.124111 0.270193 -0.265248 -1.146217 -1.399254 0.7919 0.2571 0.1678 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: LRESID2 Method: Least Squares Date: 05/15/15 Time: 15:14 Sample: 115 Included observations: 54 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Footer Page 164 of 148 0.046049 0.008640 2.209559 248.9896 -117.8902 1.230944 0.300545 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat -7.457553 2.219166 4.477415 4.587914 4.520031 1.118674 Header Page 165 of 148 152 Kim nh RAMSEY RESET Ramsey RESET Test Equation: H2C Specification: LOG(COI) LOG(X1TONG) LN_ASSETS C Omitted Variables: Squares of fitted values t-statistic F-statistic Likelihood ratio Value 1.579874 2.496002 2.630556 df 50 (1, 50) Probability 0.1204 0.1204 0.1048 Sum of Sq 0.008998 0.189253 0.180255 0.180255 df 51 50 50 Mean Squares 0.008998 0.003711 0.003605 0.003605 Value 76.02600 77.34127 df 51 50 F-test summary: Test SSR Restricted SSR Unrestricted SSR Unrestricted SSR LR test summary: Restricted LogL Unrestricted LogL Unrestricted Test Equation: Dependent Variable: LOG(COI) Method: Least Squares Date: 09/29/15 Time: 14:05 Sample: 115 Included observations: 54 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob LOG(X1TONG) LN_ASSETS C FITTED^2 0.832042 2.231200 176.0204 -10.15688 0.520985 1.397062 108.7990 6.428919 1.597056 1.597066 1.617849 -1.579874 0.1166 0.1166 0.1120 0.1204 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Footer Page 165 of 148 0.241298 0.195775 0.060042 0.180255 77.34127 5.300663 0.002987 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 4.527207 0.066953 -2.716343 -2.569011 -2.659523 1.529120 Header Page 166 of 148 153 Ph lc 11 Kt qu gi thuyt Hi quy gc Dependent Variable: ROA Method: Least Squares Date: 05/15/15 Time: 16:55 Sample: 115 Included observations: 105 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob CGIBOD CAPITAL LN_ASSETS C 0.035517 0.028708 -0.041468 1.036981 0.017688 0.013796 0.089590 1.627033 2.007918 2.080902 -0.462868 0.637344 0.0473 0.0400 0.6445 0.5253 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.150999 0.125781 0.644425 41.94369 -100.8128 5.987784 0.000849 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 1.124381 0.689227 1.996435 2.097538 2.037404 1.768884 MHB 2011 2012, Vit Nam Thng Tớn 2012, Bc 2010 2011 Hi quy log Dependent Variable: LOG(ROA) Method: Least Squares Date: 05/15/15 Time: 16:56 Sample: 115 Included observations: 105 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob LOG(CGIBOD) LOG(CAPITAL) LN_ASSETS C 0.333263 0.483369 0.016224 -2.360260 0.183655 0.249758 0.112238 2.323411 1.814615 1.935346 0.144547 -1.015860 0.0726 0.0557 0.8854 0.3121 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.128186 0.102291 0.718830 52.18840 -112.2858 4.950142 0.003012 Footer Page 166 of 148 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat -0.091351 0.758680 2.214967 2.316071 2.255936 1.553674 Header Page 167 of 148 154 B bin ASSET Dependent Variable: LOG(ROA) Method: Least Squares Date: 05/15/15 Time: 16:57 Sample: 115 Included observations: 105 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob LOG(CGIBOD) LOG(CAPITAL) C 0.344358 0.454483 -2.033243 0.166044 0.149100 0.526594 2.073899 3.048181 -3.861124 0.0406 0.0029 0.0002 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.128006 0.110908 0.715372 52.19920 -112.2967 7.486631 0.000925 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat -0.091351 0.758680 2.196127 2.271954 2.226853 1.543039 Kim nh t tng quan Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic Obs*R-squared 2.008129 4.054243 Prob F(2,100) Prob Chi-Square(2) 0.1396 0.1317 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 05/15/15 Time: 16:57 Sample: 115 Included observations: 105 Presample and interior missing value lagged residuals set to zero Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob LOG(CGIBOD) LOG(CAPITAL) C RESID(-1) RESID(-2) -0.031757 -0.041876 0.172483 0.215697 -0.006992 0.165402 0.149989 0.531772 0.105203 0.103251 -0.191997 -0.279195 0.324355 2.050302 -0.067718 0.8481 0.7807 0.7463 0.0430 0.9461 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.038612 0.000156 0.708404 50.18369 -110.2294 1.004065 0.409161 Footer Page 167 of 148 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 5.60E-17 0.708460 2.194845 2.321224 2.246056 1.923057 Header Page 168 of 148 155 Kim nh phng sai thay i Phng phỏp Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey F-statistic Obs*R-squared Scaled explained SS 3.533556 6.803579 23.55425 Prob F(2,102) Prob Chi-Square(2) Prob Chi-Square(2) 0.0328 0.0333 0.0000 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 05/15/15 Time: 16:58 Sample: 115 Included observations: 105 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C LOG(CGIBOD) LOG(CAPITAL) 3.005055 -0.707723 -0.299484 0.972604 0.306678 0.275383 3.089700 -2.307703 -1.087515 0.0026 0.0230 0.2794 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.064796 0.046459 1.321272 178.0676 -176.7192 3.533556 0.032826 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 0.497135 1.353077 3.423223 3.499050 3.453949 2.159765 Phng phỏp Harvey Heteroskedasticity Test: Harvey F-statistic Obs*R-squared Scaled explained SS 1.976561 3.917560 3.895885 Prob F(2,102) Prob Chi-Square(2) Prob Chi-Square(2) 0.1438 0.1410 0.1426 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: LRESID2 Method: Least Squares Date: 05/15/15 Time: 16:58 Sample: 115 Included observations: 105 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C LOG(CGIBOD) LOG(CAPITAL) 0.898115 -0.631569 -0.657666 1.623348 0.511869 0.459635 0.553249 -1.233849 -1.430842 0.5813 0.2201 0.1555 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.037310 0.018434 2.205301 496.0620 -230.5074 1.976561 0.143816 Footer Page 168 of 148 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat -2.252362 2.225913 4.447760 4.523588 4.478487 1.970436 Header Page 169 of 148 156 Kim nh RAMSEY RESET Ramsey RESET Test Equation: H3 Specification: LOG(ROA) LOG(CGIBOD) LOG(CAPITAL) C Omitted Variables: Squares of fitted values t-statistic F-statistic Likelihood ratio Value 1.029777 1.060441 1.096691 df 101 (1, 101) Probability 0.3056 0.3056 0.2950 Sum of Sq 0.542366 52.19920 51.65683 51.65683 df 102 101 101 Mean Squares 0.542366 0.511757 0.511454 0.511454 Value -112.2967 -111.7483 df 102 101 F-test summary: Test SSR Restricted SSR Unrestricted SSR Unrestricted SSR LR test summary: Restricted LogL Unrestricted LogL Unrestricted Test Equation: Dependent Variable: LOG(ROA) Method: Least Squares Date: 09/29/15 Time: 14:06 Sample: 115 Included observations: 105 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob LOG(CGIBOD) LOG(CAPITAL) C FITTED^2 0.518413 0.460849 -2.543895 0.628608 0.236903 0.149184 0.723215 0.610431 2.188299 3.089135 -3.517483 1.029777 0.0310 0.0026 0.0007 0.3056 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Footer Page 169 of 148 0.137066 0.111434 0.715160 51.65683 -111.7483 5.347525 0.001850 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat -0.091351 0.758680 2.204730 2.305833 2.245699 1.558660 Header Page 170 of 148 157 Ph lc 12 Kt qu gi thuyt Hi quy gc Dependent Variable: COI Method: Least Squares Date: 05/19/15 Time: 08:51 Sample: 77 Included observations: 73 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob CGIBOD CAPITAL LN_ASSETS C -0.191348 -0.315508 0.480486 89.89898 0.154485 0.142922 0.846068 15.49680 -1.238618 -2.207557 0.567904 5.801131 0.2197 0.0306 0.5719 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.186087 0.150699 5.089702 1787.449 -220.3126 5.258548 0.002515 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 92.28959 5.522829 6.145552 6.271056 6.195567 1.598730 Hi quy Log, b bin CAPITAL Dependent Variable: COI Method: Least Squares Date: 05/19/15 Time: 08:52 Sample: 77 Included observations: 73 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob CGIBOD LN_ASSETS C -0.288600 1.814173 64.12153 0.152112 0.608484 10.46634 -1.897288 2.981466 6.126452 0.0619 0.0039 0.0000 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Footer Page 170 of 148 0.128602 0.103705 5.228620 1913.693 -222.8036 5.165353 0.008083 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 92.28959 5.522829 6.186399 6.280528 6.223911 1.319229 Header Page 171 of 148 158 Kim nh t tng quan Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic Obs*R-squared 4.677107 8.827672 Prob F(2,68) Prob Chi-Square(2) 0.0125 0.0121 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 05/19/15 Time: 08:52 Sample: 77 Included observations: 73 Presample and interior missing value lagged residuals set to zero Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob CGIBOD LN_ASSETS C RESID(-1) RESID(-2) -0.003445 0.004004 0.050106 0.331953 0.056044 0.145006 0.580049 9.970451 0.122998 0.124209 -0.023759 0.006903 0.005025 2.698851 0.451204 0.9811 0.9945 0.9960 0.0088 0.6533 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.120927 0.069217 4.973866 1682.276 -218.0992 2.338554 0.063885 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 1.60E-14 5.155489 6.112307 6.269187 6.174826 2.005344 Kim nh phng sai thay i Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey F-statistic Obs*R-squared Scaled explained SS 4.946604 9.039619 20.34014 Prob F(2,70) Prob Chi-Square(2) Prob Chi-Square(2) 0.0098 0.0109 0.0000 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob C CGIBOD LN_ASSETS 316.2584 3.041638 -18.73409 110.9700 1.612773 6.451481 2.849947 1.885968 -2.903844 0.0057 0.0634 0.0049 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 05/19/15 Time: 08:53 Sample: 77 Included observations: 73 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) Footer Page 171 of 148 0.123830 0.098797 55.43673 215126.2 -395.1635 4.946604 0.009786 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 26.21497 58.39643 10.90859 11.00272 10.94610 1.701614 Header Page 172 of 148 159 Kim nh RAMSEY RESET Ramsey RESET Test Equation: H4 Specification: COI CGIBOD LN_ASSETS C Omitted Variables: Squares of fitted values Value 0.434160 0.188495 0.199150 df 69 (1, 69) Probability 0.6655 0.6655 0.6554 Sum of Sq 5.213598 1913.693 1908.479 1908.479 df 70 69 69 Mean Squares 5.213598 27.33847 27.65912 27.65912 Value -222.8036 -222.7040 df 70 69 t-statistic F-statistic Likelihood ratio F-test summary: Test SSR Restricted SSR Unrestricted SSR Unrestricted SSR LR test summary: Restricted LogL Unrestricted LogL Unrestricted Test Equation: Dependent Variable: COI Method: Least Squares Date: 09/29/15 Time: 14:19 Sample: 77 Included observations: 73 Variable Coefficient Std Error t-Statistic Prob CGIBOD LN_ASSETS C FITTED^2 -3.156987 19.79559 241.3007 -0.053544 6.608527 41.42112 408.2325 0.123328 -0.477714 0.477911 0.591086 -0.434160 0.6344 0.6342 0.5564 0.6655 R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic) 0.130976 0.093193 5.259194 1908.479 -222.7040 3.466479 0.020763 Footer Page 172 of 148 Mean dependent var S.D dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter Durbin-Watson stat 92.28959 5.522829 6.211069 6.336573 6.261084 1.330890 ... cỏc doanh nghip Lý thuyt v qun tr cụng ty ó c hỡnh thnh t nhng nm u ca th k 20 Cú lý thuyt chớnh v qun tr cụng ty: lý thuyt ngi i din, lý thuyt ngi qun lý (stewardship theory) v lý thuyt cỏc bờn... THUYT NGI I DIN TRONG H THNG NGN HNG VIT NAM THEO PHNG PHP NH TNH 49 3.1 H thng ngõn hng Vit Nam giai on 2010 2012 49 3.2 Qun tr ngõn hng thng mi h thng ngõn hng Vit Nam 54 3.3... KT QU KIM NH Lí THUYT NGI I DIN TRONG H THNG NGN HNG VIT NAM THEO PHNG PHP NH LNG 89 4.1 Mõu thun li ớch theo lý thuyt ngi i din h thng ngõn hng Vit Nam 89 4.1.1 Kt qu gi