Solar Ian Mcewan With wine and water they raised a toast to magical thinking, then they continued a conversation they had been having by email for some months To an eavesdropper it would have sounded like the essence of commercial tedium, but to the two men it was a matter of urgency How many orders for panels were necessary to bring the unit cost down to the point at which they could feasibly claim that a medium sized artificialphotosynthesis plant could generate electricity as cheaply as coal? The energy market was highly conservative There was no premium for being virtuous, for not screwing up the climate system Orders for seven thousand panels, this was their best calculation Much would depend on whether they could reliably power Lordsburg and its environs night and day for a year, through all kinds of weather And it also depended on the Chinese, how fast they could move, and how plausibly they could be threatened by the prospect of losing the business In that respect, the recession helped, but it would also depress demand for panels, if not for energy They went round this topic a few times, quoting figures, plucking others from the air, then Hammer leaned forward and said confidentially, as though the sole waiter on the far side of the restaurant might hear him, ‘But, Chief, you can be straight with me Tell me Is it true, the planet’s getting cooler?’ ‘What?’ ‘You keep telling me the arguments are over, but they’re not I’m hearing it everywhere Last week some woman professor of atmosphere studies or something was saying so on public television.’ ‘Whoever she says she is, she’s wrong.’ ‘And I’m hearing it everywhere from business people It seems like it’s building They’re saying the scientists have gotten it wrong but don’t dare to admit it Too many careers and reputations on the line.’ ‘What’s their evidence?’ ‘They’re saying a point-seven-degree rise since pre-industrial times, that’s two hundred and fifty years, is negligible, well within usual fluctuations And the last ten years have been below the average We’ve had some bad winters here – that doesn’t help our cause And they’re also saying that too many people are going to get rich on the Obama handouts and tax breaks to want to tell the truth Then there are all these scientists, including the one I was talking about, who’ve signed up to the Senate Minority Report on Climate Change – you must have seen that stuff.’ Beard hesitated, then called for more wine That was the trouble with some of these Californian reds, they were so smoothly accessible, they went down like lemonade But they were sixteen per cent alcohol He could not help feeling that this conversation was beneath him It wearied him, like talking about or against religion, or crop circles and UFOs for that matter He said, ‘It’s zero point eight now, it’s not negligible in climate terms, and most of it COMPILED JUAN CARLOS DAVID Solar Ian Mcewan has happened in the last thirty years And ten years is not enough to establish a trend You need at least twenty-five Some years are hotter, some are cooler than the year before, and if you drew a graph of average yearly temperatures it would be a zigzag, but a rising zigzag When you take an exceptionally hot year as your starting point, you can easily show a decline, at least for a few years That’s an old trick, called framing, or cherrypicking As for these scientists who signed some contrarian document, they’re in a minority of a thousand to one, Toby Ornithologists, epidemiologists, oceanographers and glaciologists, salmon fishermen and ski-lift operators, the consensus are overwhelming Some weak-brained journalists write against it because they think it’s a sign of independent thinking And there’s plenty of attention out there for a professor who’ll speak against it There are bad scientists, just like there are rotten singers and terrible cooks.’ Hammer looked sceptical ‘If the place isn’t hotting up, we’re fucked.’ As he refilled his glass, Beard thought how strange it was, that after being associates for all these years, they had rarely discussed the larger issue They had always concentrated on the business, the matter in hand Beard also noticed that he himself was close to being drunk ‘Here’s the good news The UN estimates that already a third of a million people a year are dying from climate change Bangladesh is going down because the oceans are warming and expanding and rising There’s drought in the Amazonian rainforest Methane is pouring out of the Siberian permafrost There’s a meltdown under the Greenland ice sheet that no one really wants to talk about Amateur yachtsmen have been sailing the NorthWest Passage Two years ago we lost forty per cent of the Arctic summer ice Now the eastern Antarctic is going The future has arrived, Toby.’ ‘Yeah,’ Hammer said ‘I guess.’ ‘You’re not convinced Here’s the worst case Suppose the near impossible – the thousand are wrong and the one is right, the data are all skewed, there’s no warming It’s a mass delusion among scientists, or a plot Then we still have the old stand-bys Energy security, air pollution, peak oil.’ ‘No one’s going to buy a fancy panel from us just because the oil’s going to run out in thirty years.’ ‘What’s wrong with you? Trouble at home?’ ‘Nothing like that Just that I put in all this work, then guys in white coats come on TV to say the planet’s not heating I get spooked.’ Beard laid a hand on his friend’s arm, a sure sign that he was well over his limit ‘Toby, listen It’s a catastrophe Relax!’ COMPILED JUAN CARLOS DAVID Solar Ian Mcewan wǺð waǺn ǩn(d) ɑwǤətǩ ðeǺ reǺzd ǩ tǩȚst | tǩ ɑmædȢǺklʜ ɑθǺŋkǺŋ | ðen ðeǺ kǩnɑtǺnjuəd ǩ ɕkǢnvǩɑseǺȓnʜ ðeǺ (h)ǩd biən ɑhævǺŋ ba(Ǻ) ɑiəmeǺl fǩ sǩm mȜnθs | tu ǩn ɑiəvzdrǢpǩ | Ǻt wȚd (h)ǩv ɑsaȚndǺd laǺk ði ɑesns ǩv kǩɑmǬəȓlʜ ɑtiədiǩm | bǩt tǩ ðǩ tuə men | Ǻt wǩz ǩ ɑmætǩr ǩv ɑǬədȢǩnsi | ɑhaȚ meni ɑǤədǩz | fǩ sǩȚlǩ ɑpænlʜz | wǩ ɑnesǩs(ǩ)ri tǩ brǺŋ ðǩ ɑjuənǺt kǢs(t) daȚn tǩ ðǩ pǤǺnt ǩt wǺtȓ| ðeǺ kȚd fi:zbli kleǺm| ðǩt ǩ ɑmiədiǩm saǺzd ɕǡətǺɑfǺȓlʜ ɕfǩȚtǩȚɑsǺnθǩsǺs plǡənt |kȚd ɑdȢenǩreǺt ǺɕlekɑtrǺsǺti ǩz ɑtȓiəpli ǩz kǩȚl | ði ɑenǩdȢi ɑmǡəkǺt wǩz ɑhaǺli kǩnɑsǬəvǩtǺv | ðǩ wǩz nǩȚ ɑpriəmiǩm fǩ ɑbiəǺŋ ɑvǬətȓuǩs | fǩ nǢt ɑskruəǺŋ Ȝp ðǩ ɑklaǺmǩt ɑsǺstǩm | ɑǤədǩz fǩ ɑsevnʜ ɑθaȚznʜ(d) ɑpænlʜz | ðǺs wǩz ðeǩ bes(t) ɕkælkjuɑleǺȓnʜ | ɑmȜtȓ wȚd dǺɑpend Ǣn ɑweðǩ ðeǺ kȚd rǺɑla(Ǻ)ǩbli ɑpa(Ț)ǩ lǤ:dzbǬ:g ǩnd Ǻts Ǻnɑva(Ǻ)ǩrǩnz naǺt ǩn(d) deǺ fǩr ǩ jǬə | θruə Ǥəl kaǺn(d)z ǩv ɑweðǩ | ǩnd Ǻt ɑǤəlsǩȚ dǺɑpendǺd Ǣn ðǩ tȓaǺɑniəz |ɑhaȚ fǡəs(t) ðeǺ kȚd muəv | ǩn(d) ɑhaȚ ɑplǤəzǩbli ðeǺ kȚd bi ɑθretnʜd | baǺ ðǩ prǢspekt ǩv ɑluəzǺŋ ðǩ ɑbǺznǩs | Ǻn ðæt rǺɑspekt | ðǩ rǺɑseȓnʜ helpt | bǩt Ǻt wȚd ɑǤəlsǩȚ dǺɑpres dǺɑmǡən(d) fǩ ɑpænlʜz | Ǻf nǢt fǩr ɑenǩdȢi | ðeǺ went raȚn(d) ðǺs ɑtǢpǺk ǩ fjuə ɑtaǺmz | ɑkwǩȚtǺŋ ɑfǺDZǩz | ɑplȜkǺŋ ɑȜðǩz frǩm ði eǩ | ðen ɑhæmǩ liənd ɑfǤəwǩd | ǩn(d) ɑsed ɕkǢnfǺɑdenȓǩli | ǩz ðǩȚ ðǩ sǩȚl ɑweǺtǩr Ǣn ðǩ fǡə saǺd ǩv ðǩ ɑrestrǢnt maǺt hǺǩr Ǻm | bǩt tȓiəf | kǩn ju bi streǺt wǺð miə | tel miə | Ǻz Ǻt truə | ðǩ ɑplænǩts ɑDZetǺŋ ɑkuəlǩ | wǢt | ju kiəp ɑtelǺŋ miə ði ɑǡəDZjumǩnts ǩr ɑǩȚvǩ | bǩt ðeǩ nǢt | aǺm ɑhǺǩrǺŋ Ǻt ɑevrǺweǩ | lǡəs(t) wiək sȜm ɑwȚmǩn sȜm prǩɑfesǩr ǩv ɑætmǩsfiǩ ɑstȜdǺz Ǥə ɑsȜmθǺŋ | wǩz ɑseǺǺŋ sǩ(Ț) Ǣn ɑpȜblǺk ɑtelǺvǺȢnʜ | huəɑevǩ ȓi ɑsez ȓi Ǻz | ȓi:z rǢŋ | ǩnd aǺm ɑhǺǩrǺŋ Ǻt ɑevrǺweǩ fr(ǩ)m ɑbǺznǩs ɑpiəplʜ | Ǻt siəmz ɑlaǺk Ǻts ɑbǺldǺŋ | ðeǩ ɑseǺǺŋ ðǩ ɑsa(Ǻ)ǩntǺsts hǩv ɑDZǢtǩn Ǻt rǢŋ | bǩt dǩȚnt ǩdɑmǺt Ǻt | tuə ɑmeni kǩɑrǺǩz ǩn(d) ɕrepjuɑteǺȓnʜz Ǣn ðǩ laǺn | wǢt wǢz ðeǩr ɑevǺdǩns | ðeǩ ɑseǺǺŋ | ǩ pǤǺnt sev(ǩ)n dǺgri: raǺz sǺns pri:ǺndȜstriǩl ɑtaǺmz | ðæts tuə ɑhȜndrǩd ǩn(d) ɑfǺfti jǬəz ǩgǩȚ| Ǻz ɑneDZlǺdȢǩblʜ | wel wǺðɑǺn ðǩ ɑjuəȢuǩl ɕflȜktȓuɑeǺȓnʜz | ǩn(d) ðǩ lǡəs(t) ten jǬəz (h)ǩv biən bǺɑlǩȚ ði ɑævǩrǺdȢ | wi:v hæd sǩm bæd ɑwǺntǩz hǺǩ ðæt ɑdȜzn(t) help ɑa(Ț)ǩ kǤəz | ǩn(d) ðeǩr ɑǤəlsǩȚ ɑseǺǺŋ ðǩt tuə ɑmeni ɑpiəplʜ ǩ ɑDZǩ(Ț)Ǻŋ tǩ DZet rǺtȓ | Ǣn ði ǩȚɑbǡəmǩ ɑhændaȚts| ǩn(d) tæks breǺks|tǩ wǢnt tǩ tel ðǩ truəθ | ðen ðǩr ǩr Ǥəl ðiəz ɑsa(Ǻ)ǩntǺsts | ǺnɑkluədǺŋ ðǩ wȜn ɑaǺ wǩz ɑtǤəkǺŋ ǩɑbaȚt | huəv saǺnd Ȝp tǩ ðǩ ɑsenǺt maǺɑnǢrǺti rǺɑpǤət Ǣn ɑklaǺmǩt tȓeǺndȢ | ju mȜst (h)ǩv siən ðæt stȜf | bǺǩd ɑhezǺteǺtǺd | ðen kǤəld fǩ mǤə waǺn | ðæt wǩz ðǩ ɑtrȜblʜ wǺð sȜm ǩv ðiəz ɕkælǺɑfǤəniǩn redz | ðeǺ wǩ sǩȚ ɑsmuəðli ǩkɑsesǩblʜ | ðeǺ went daȚn ɑlaǺk ɕlemǩɑneǺd | bǩt ðeǺ wǩ sǺkɑstiən pǩ sent ɑælkǩhǢl | hi kȚd nǢt help ɑfiəlǺŋ | ðǩt ðǺs ɕkǢnvǩɑseǺȓnʜ wǩz bǺɑniəθ Ǻm | Ǻt ɑwǺǩrǺd Ǻm | ɑlaǺk ɑtǤəkǺŋ ǩɑbaȚt | Ǥər ǩɑDZens(t) rǺɑlǺdȢǩn | Ǥə krǢp ɑsǬəklʜz | ǩn(d) ju: ef ǩȚz | fǩ ðæt ɑmætǩ | hi ɑsed | Ǻts ɑzǺǩrǩȚ pǤǺnt eǺt naȚ | Ǻts nǢt COMPILED JUAN CARLOS DAVID Solar Ian Mcewan ɑneDZlǺdȢǩblʜ Ǻn ɑklaǺmǩt tǬəmz | ǩnd mǩȚst ǩv Ǻt (h)ǩz ɑhæpǩnd Ǻn ðǩ lǡəs(t) ɑθǬəti jǬəz | ǩn(d) ten jǬəz Ǻz nǢt ǺɑnȜf tu ǺɑstæblǺȓ ǩ trend | ju niəd ǩt liəs(t) twenti faǺv | sȜm jǬəz ǩ ɑhǢtǩ | sȜm ǩ ɑkuəlǩ ðǩn ðǩ jǬə bǺɑfǤə | ǩnd Ǻf ju druə ǩ DZrǡəf ǩv ɑævǩrǺdȢ ɑjǬəli ɑtemprǩtȓǩz Ǻt wȚd bi ǩ ɑzǺDZzæDZ | bǩt ǩ ɑraǺzǺŋ ɑzǺDZzæDZ | wen ju teǺk ǩn Ǻkɑsepȓǩnǩli hǢt jǬər ǩz jǤ: ɑstǡətǺŋ pǤǺnt | ju kǩn ɑiəzǩli ȓǩ(Ț) ǩ dǺɑklaǺn | ǩt liəst fǩr ǩ fjuə jǬəz | ðæts ǩn ǩȚld trǺk | kǤəld ɑfreǺmǺŋ | Ǥə tȓeri pǺkǺŋ | ǩz fǩ ðiəz ɑsa(Ǻ)ǩntǺsts huə saǺnd sǩm ɕkǩnɑtreǩriǩn ɑdǢkjȚmǩnt | ðeǩr Ǻn ǩ maǺɑnǢrǺti ǩv ǩ ɑθaȚznʜ(d) tǩ wȜn | ɑtǩȚbi | ɕǤənǺɑθǢlǩdȢǺsts | ɕepǺdiəmiɑǢlǩdȢǺsts | ɕǩȚȓǩɑnǢDZrǩfǩz ǩnd gleǺsiǢlǩdȢǺsts | ɑsæmǩn ɑfǺȓǩmǩn ǩnd ɑskiə lǺft ɑǢpǩreǺtǩz | ðǩ kǩnɑsensǩs ǩr ɕǩȚvǩɑwelmǺŋ | sȜm wi:k breǺnd ɑdȢǬənǩlǺsts ɑraǺt ǩɑDZenst Ǻt bǺɑkǢz ðeǺ θǺŋk Ǻts ǩ saǺn ǩv ɕǺndǺɑpendǩnt ɑθǺŋkǺŋ | ǩn(d) ðeǩz ɑplenti ǩv ǩɑtenȓnʜ aȚt ðǫǩ fǩr ǩ prǩɑfesǩ huəl spiək ǩɑDZenst Ǻt | ðǩr ǩ bæd ɑsa(Ǻ)ǩntǺsts | dȢȜs(t) ɑlaǺk ðǩr ǩ ɑrǢtnʜ ɑsǺŋǩz ǩn(d) ɑterǩblʜ kȚks | ɑhæmǩ lȚkt ɑskeptǺklʜ | Ǻf ðǩ ɑpleǺs ɑǺznt ɑhǢtǺŋ Ȝp | wǺǩ fȜkt | ǩz (h)i ɕriəɑfǺld Ǻz DZlǡəs | bǺǩd ɑθǤət ɑhaȚ streǺndȢ Ǻt wǢz | ðǩt ɑǡəftǩ ɑbiəǺŋ ǩɑsǩȚsiǩts fǩr Ǥəl ðiəz jǬəz | ðeǺ hǩd ɑreǩli dǺɑskȜst ðǩ ɑlǡədȢǩr ɑǺȓuə | ðeǺ hǩd ɑǤəlweǺz ɑkǢnsǩntreǺtǺd Ǣn ðǩ ɑbǺznǩs | ðǩ ɑmætǩr Ǻn hænd | bǺǩd ɑǤəlsǩȚ ɑnǩȚtǺst ðǩt (h)i hǺmɑself wǩz klǩȚs tǩ ɑbiəǺŋ drȜŋk | hi sed |hǺǩz ðǩ DZȚd njuəz | ðǩ ɕjuəɑen ɑestǺmeǺts ðǩt Ǥəlɑredi ǩ θǬəd ǩv ǩ ɑmǺljǩn ɑpiəplʜ ǩ jǬər ǩ ɑdaǺǺŋ frǩm ɑklaǺmǩt tȓeǺndȢ | ɕbæŋDZlǩɑdeȓ Ǻz ɑDZǩ(Ț)Ǻŋ daȚn bǺɑkǢz ði ɑǩȚȓnʜz ǩ ɑwǤəmǺŋ ǩnd ǺkɑspændǺŋ ǩn(d) ɑraǺzǺŋ | ðeǩz ɑdraȚt Ǻn ði ɕæmǩɑzǩȚniǩn ɑreǺnfǢrǺst | ɑmiəθeǺn Ǻz ɑpǤərǺŋ aȚt ǩv ðǩ saǺɑbǺǩriǩn ɑpǬəmǩfrǢst | ðeǩz ǩ ɑmeltdaȚn ɑȜndǩ ðǩ ɑDZriənlǩnd aǺs ȓiət ðǩt nǩȚ wȜn ɑrǺǩli wǢnts tǩ ɑtǤək ǩɑbaȚt | ɑæmǩtǩ ɑjǢtsmǩn hǩv biən ɑseǺlǺŋ ðǩ nǤəθɑwest ɑpæsǺdȢ | tuə jǬəz ǩɑDZǩȚ wi lǢst ɑfǤəti pǬə sent ǩv ði ɑǡəktǺk ɑsȜmǩr aǺs | naȚ ði ɑiəstǩn ænɑtǡəktǺk s ɑDZǩȚǺŋ | ðǩ ɑfjuətȓǩ hǩz ǩɑraǺvd | ɑtǩȚbi | jeǩ | ɑhæmǩ ɑsed | aǺ DZes | jǤ: nǢt kǩnɑvǺnst | hǺǩz ðǩ wǬəst keǺs | sǩɑpǩȚz ðǩ nǺǩr ǺmɑpǢsǩblʜ | ðǩ ɑθaȚznʜd ǩ rǢŋ ǩnd ðǩ wȜn Ǻz raǺt | ðǩ ɑdeǺtǩ ǩr Ǥəl skjuəd | ðeǩz nǩȚ ɑwǤəmǺŋ | Ǻts ǩ mæs dǺɑluəȢnʜ ǩɑmȜŋ ɑsa(Ǻ)ǩntǺsts | Ǥər ǩ plǢt | ðen wi stǺl hæv ði ǩȚl(d) ɑstænbaǺz | ɑenǩdȢi sǺɑkjȚǩrǺti | eǩ pǩɑluəȓnʜ | piək ǤǺl | nǩȚ wȜnz ɑDZǩ(Ț)Ǻŋ tǩ ba(Ǻ) ǩ ɑfænsi ɑpænlʜ frǩm ǩs dȢǩs(t) bǺɑkǢz ði ɕǤǺlz ɑDZǩ(Ț)Ǻŋ tǩ rȜn aȚt Ǻn ɑθǬəti jǬəz | wǢts rǢŋ wǺð ju tǩȚbi | ɑtrȜblʜ ǩt hǩȚm | ɑnȜθǺŋ ɑlaǺk ðæt | dȢǩst ðǩt ɑaǺ ɑpȚt Ǻn Ǥəl ðǺs ɑwǬək | ðen DZaǺz Ǻn waǺt kǩȚts kȜm Ǣn ɕtiəɑviə tǩ ɑseǺ ðǩ ɑplænǩts nǢt ɑhiətǺŋ | ɑaǺ DZet spuəkt | bǺǩd leǺd ǩ hænd Ǣn Ǻz ɑfrendz ǡəm | ǩ ȓȚǩ saǺn ðǩt hi wǩz wel ɑǩȚvǩr Ǻz ɑlǺmǺt | ɑtǩȚbi | ɑlǺsnʜ | Ǻts ǩ kǩɑtæstrǩfi | rǺɑlæks | COMPILED JUAN CARLOS DAVID