Viet Nam Country Report of energy

Meeting of Energy Futures and Energy Cooperation in the Northeast Asia Region Viet Nam- Country Report By: Dr Pham Khanh Toan & Nguyen Minh Bao Institute of Energy 23-24 September-Beijing-China Contents Introduction Recent Changes in Energy Sector and Policies Work Progress and Interim Results of LEAP Paths Conclusions and Recommendations Introduction • Viet Nam stretches along the east coast of Indochina over a length of 1,600 km between the northern latitudes of 80 and 230 • Total land area: 330,000 square kilometers • Shares common borders with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the north, and with Laos and Cambodia in the west Introduction  Population: • 2009: 85.8 million (result from the general population census in 01 April 2009) • From 1999 to 2009: Population were increased by 9.5 million with an average growth rate of 1.18% per year, reducing nearly 0.5% compared with previous 10 year period (1989-1999)  GDP: Annual average GDP Growth Rate: 7.6% in 19902005, and 7.3% in 2005-2009 Recent Changes in Energy Sector and Policies Current Status and Recent Trends in Energy Sector • Total energy consumption in 1990 was 16,760 KTOE and increased to 40,345 KTOE in 2007 with average growth rate of 5.3 percent per year Total Energy Use by Sector 1990-2007,(including Biomass Energy) Current Status and Recent Trends in Energy Sector • In 2007, residential sector consumes 39% of total final energy, followed by industry (36%), transportation (20%), commerce (4%) and agriculture (1%) The share of energy consumption by sector in 2007 Gas turbine Oil thermal Coal thermal HPP 10 Interim Results Industry: Final Energy Demand by Fuels (KTOE) 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Biomass 1,427 1,034 1,518 2,227 3,225 Coal 4,777 8,900 11,823 15,701 19,658 Diesel 265 380 1,870 3,527 12 15 18 22 LPG 109 309 495 770 Natural Gas 100 554 1,023 FO 1,159 1,528 Total 9,719 Electricity Kerosene 16,248 523 5,675 720 9,047 944 13,364 27 2030 4,671 24,928 1,237 19,921 31 AGR.% (05-30) 4.9 6.8 6.4 9.9 3.9 1,110 1,583 11.3 1,597 2,274 3,133 14.8 1,966 2,535 3,101 3,787 4.9 23,042 32,620 43,703 59,291 7.5 Interim Results Transport: Final Energy Demand by Sub-sectors (KTOE) 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 AGR.% (05-30) Passenger 3332 5145 8028 12525 19051 28973 9.0 Freight 3531 4870 6759 6.6 307 423 587 Other Total 9382 12734 17284 815 1106 1501 6.6 7169 10438 15375 22721 32891 47759 7.9 Interim Results Transport: Final Energy Demand by Fuels (KTOE) 2005 2010 2015 2025 2030 AGR.% (05-30) Diesel 3,723 5,406 7,959 11,805 17,239 25,352 8.0 Gasoline 2,708 3,951 5,815 8,539 12,199 17,381 7.7 432 658 1,014 1,562 2,346 3,524 8.8 307 423 587 815 1,106 1,501 6.6 7,169 10,438 15,375 22,721 32,891 47,759 7.9 Jet Kerosene Residual Fuel Oil Total 2020 Interim Results Electricity Generation: Output by Fuels -BAU (KTOE) 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 769 1,762 3,620 6,323 9,241 14,927 Hydro 1,845 2,732 3,341 4,347 5,776 8,210 Natural Gas 1,770 1,752 1,934 1,953 2,568 2,930 Nuclear - - - 527 3,080 5,473 Diesel 73 18 140 284 26 20 4,597 6,548 8,925 Coal FO Total 13,172 - - 19 16 20,685 31,556 Interim Results Electricity Generation: Global Warming Potential (Mil Tone CO2e) 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 BAU 21.9 32.3 48.7 75 105.6 164.2 Maximum Nuclear 21.9 32.3 48.7 75 95.4 Minimum Nuclear 21.9 32.3 48.7 75 115.9 189.0 144.3 Conclusion and Recommendation Conclusions As shown above, an interim result was achieved based on the updated data on energy, economics and main driving activities • Energy demand of residential, industry, and transport sectors was broken down in to sub-sectors and end-uses • Energy demand was projected based energy consumption indexes and driving activities referred from the development strategies of sectors and sub-sectors • GHG Mitigation Scenarios were developed based on the BAU, maximum and minimum scenarios on nuclear power development Recommendation As the first steps, we initially restructured the LEAP Dataset for residential, industry and transport that each sector was divided in sub-sectors and end-uses Moreover, the GHG Mitigation Scenarios were also developed only on supply side based on BAU, Minimum and Maximum nuclear power development paths Therefore, these is still room for “next steps” of AES Project, including: • Development of alternative energy scenarios on the demand side -including energy efficiency, fuels substitution, and demand-side renewable energy to provide energy services and reduce GHG emissions • Evaluation of the costs for CO2 emissions abatement through different energy efficient policies and measures Thank you very much [...]... internal energy managers responsible for energy- efficiency work Viet Nam s Energy Policy  Target Sectors for Promoting Energy Efficiency: Three sectors account for about 95% of total final energy consumption, with high potential for energy efficiency: • Industry: Consumption grew from 4,663 KTOE in 1990 to 14,359 KTOE in 2007, annual growth rate of 6.8% per year, accounting for 27.8% of total energy. .. Introduction of energy- saving appliances, renewable energy in households and commercial buildings, along with management measurements Viet Nam s Energy Policy  National Policies in Nuclear Energy • In January 2006, the Prime Minister approved “Sstrategy to apply nuclear energy for peaceful purposes by 2020” • In April 2008, the Institute of Energy prepared an Investment Report on construction of nuclear... April 2006, the Prime Minister of Viet Nam signed Decision No 79/2006/QD-TTg approving the EE&C program for the period 2006-2015 • The target of the program is to save 3 to 5 percent of total national energy consumption over the period 20062010 and 5 to 8 percent in period 2011-2015 Viet Nam s Energy Policy  National Energy Efficient Use Policies • In July 2010, the Law on Energy Conservation and Efficient... 2007, annual growth rate of 11.3% per year • Residential: Household use of modern energy (such as LPG and electricity) has average growth rate of 16.3% per year during 1990–2007 Viet Nam s Energy Policy  Main Measurements for Energy Efficiency in Target Sectors a, Industrial Sector: - Renewal and renovation of existing equipment and facilities - Selecting the suitable measures for energy use management...Volume of transmission network as of 2009 3438 km 8497 km 16/7500 MVA 119/19094 MVA 12145 km 746/25862 MVA Rate of rural electrification as of end of 2009 -100% districts have electricity from national grid or local system - 97.6% communes (8880/9101 communes); and - 95,1% rural households have electricity from grid (13.95/14.67 mill hh) 11 Viet Nam s Energy Policy  National Energy Saving &... institutionalize policies on national energy resources, energy security, environment protection and meeting demand of socio-economic development • The Law specifies the responsibilities of sectors with high energy saving potential such as industry, transport, service and residential • The Law stipulated that large energy- consuming industries and buildings have to report on energy consumption and plans to... Investment Report of the first nuclear power plant project in Phuoc Dinh and Vinh Hai, Ninh Thuan province, 4000 MW, was approved by the National Assembly in November 2009 At each site, two nuclear units with capacity of 1000 MW each, operation anticipated in 2020 Viet Nam s Energy Policy  National Policies in Nuclear Energy • In June 2010, the Prime Minister approved “Orientation planning for nuclear energy. .. for about 10 percent of the total capacity of power system 2 Work Progress and Interim Results of LEAP Paths Introduction In EASS Project, LEAP was used as a tool for energy demand projection, and development of alternative energy scenarios addressing climate change problems This section will provide the progress and interim results of LEAP Paths including: • Methodology and Data • Energy Demand Structure... put into operation by 2020 The second plant will also be built during this period Viet Nam s Energy Policy  National Policies in Nuclear Energy - The phase 3: 2020-2030, next nuclear power plants will be built • According to the development orientation, about eight sites for power plants located in five provinces of Ninh Thuan, Binh Dinh, Phu Yen, Ha Tinh and Quang Ngai - Up to 2030: Total NPP capacity... results of LEAP Paths Methodology and Data • Energy demand was constructed and projected for the sectors such as industry, transport, agriculture, residential and commercial sectors • In each sector, energy consumption was broken down in to subsectors and projected based on driving activities and energy intensities • Driving activities were chosen based on the development plans or strategies of subsectors