second edition climate change The Science, Impacts and Solutions A Barrie Pittock SECOND EDITION CLIMATE CHANGE The Science, Impacts and Solutions A BARRIE PITTOCK publishing for a sustainable future © CSIRO 2009 All rights reserved Except under the conditions described in the Australian Copyright Act 1968 and subsequent amendments, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, duplicating or otherwise, without the prior permission of the copyright owner Contact CSIRO PUBLISHING for all permission requests National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Pittock, A Barrie, 1938– Climate change : the science, impacts and solutions / A Barrie Pittock 2nd ed 9780643094840 (pbk.) Includes index Bibliography Climatic changes – Government policy Climatic changes – Risk assessment Global environmental change Greenhouse effect, Atmospheric Global warming 551.6 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data has been applied for Published exclusively in Australia, New Zealand and the Americas, and non-exclusively in other territories of the world (excluding Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Africa), by: CSIRO PUBLISHING 150 Oxford Street (PO Box 1139) Collingwood VIC 3066 Australia Telephone: Local call: Fax: Email: Web site: +61 9662 7666 1300 788 000 (Australia only) +61 9662 7555 publishing.sales@csiro.au www.publish.csiro.au Published exclusively in Europe, the Middle East, Asia (including India, Japan, China and South-East Asia) and Africa, and non-exclusively in other territories of the world (excluding Australia, New Zealand and the Americas), by Earthscan, with ISBN 978-1-84407-648-2 (paperback) and ISBN 978-1-84407-786-1 (hardback) Earthscan Dunstan House 14a St Cross Street London, EC1N 8XA, UK Telephone: +44 (0)20 7841 1930 Fax: +44 (0)20 7242 1474 Email: earthinfo@earthscan.co.uk Web site: www.earthscan.co.uk 22883 Quicksilver Drive, Sterling, VA 20166-2012, USA Front cover photos by (left to right): iStockphoto, NASA, NASA, the Australian National University Set in 10.5/14 Palatino Edited by Susannah Burgess Cover and text design by James Kelly Typeset by Planman Technologies Index by Wordsharper Publishing Services Printed in Australia by Ligare The book has been printed on paper certified by the Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Chain of Custody (PEFC) PEFC is committed to sustainable forest management through third party forest certification of responsibly managed forests CSIRO PUBLISHING publishes and distributes scientific, technical and health science books, magazines and journals from Australia to a worldwide audience and conducts these activities autonomously from the research activities of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily represent those of, and should not be attributed to, the publisher or CSIRO CONTENTS Foreword ix Acknowledgements xi Introduction xiii Climate change matters Turning up the heat Why is the present rapid warming happening? The importance of delayed climate responses 10 Observed impacts 12 Trends in human vulnerability 15 Projections of future climate change 16 Facing the challenge 17 Conclusion 18 Endnotes 19 Learning from the past 23 Proxy data: clues from the past 24 The record of the ice ages 26 The causes of past climate change 27 Variations in the Earth’s orbit 28 Role of greenhouse gases in amplifying climate changes 29 Variations in solar output 30 Volcanoes, cosmic collisions and aerosols 31 Rapid climate changes in the past 32 The last 10 000 years 35 Conclusions from the past record 37 Endnotes 39 Projecting the future 43 The need for, and nature of, foresight 43 Predictions, scenarios and projections 44 iv CLIMATE CHANGE: THE SCIENCE, IMPACTS AND SOLUTIONS The emissions scenarios used by the IPCC 45 Projections of socio-economic futures 49 Forecasting the weather 51 Why climate projections are different 52 How good are climate models? 53 The state of climate projections 56 Endnotes 57 Uncertainty is inevitable, but risk is certain 59 Despite uncertainties, decisions have to be made 59 Uncertainty in climate change projections 60 From polarisation to probability and risk 63 Estimating risk 67 Uncertainty and the role of sceptics 69 Application of the ‘precautionary principle’ 73 Endnotes 74 What climate changes are likely? Projected climate changes 77 78 Surface warming 80 Regional warmings 82 Precipitation and evaporation 82 Extreme events 84 Sea-level rise 87 Thresholds and abrupt or irreversible changes 93 Scenarios in a nutshell 97 Endnotes 99 Impacts: why be concerned? 107 Climate change impacts – reasons for concern 109 Thresholds and abrupt changes 110 Risks to unique and threatened systems 111 Risks from extreme climate events 115 Distribution of impacts 118 Aggregate impacts 121 CONTENTS Waking the sleeping giants v 122 Effects of a breakdown in the ocean circulation 122 Rapid sea-level rise from melting ice sheets 124 Runaway carbon dynamics 125 Security implications 126 Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations 126 Growing reasons for concern 128 Endnotes 129 Adaptation: living with climate change 133 Adaptation concepts and strategies 133 Costs and benefits of adaptation 136 Implementation 137 Effects of different rates of climatic change 140 Equity issues in adaptation 141 Enhancing adaptive capacity 144 Endnotes 145 Mitigation: limiting climate change 149 Why mitigation is necessary 149 Targets: how much mitigation is needed? 150 Where we are now 157 How difficult is mitigation? 159 The looming peak in oil production 165 Mitigation options 167 Increased energy efficiency 167 Changes in infrastructure and behaviour 170 Fuel substitution 172 Nuclear power 174 Hydropower 176 Solar energy 177 Wind power 180 Biomass energy 182 Tidal and wave energy 186 vi CLIMATE CHANGE: THE SCIENCE, IMPACTS AND SOLUTIONS Geothermal power 187 The hydrogen economy 188 Carbon capture and sequestration 190 Land-based carbon sinks 194 Geoengineering possibilities 197 Technological innovation: attitude is vital 201 The road to effective mitigation 202 Endnotes 206 Climate change in context 223 Surface air pollution and climate change 225 Stratospheric ozone depletion 225 Land-use change, biodiversity, agriculture and forestry 226 Land degradation and desertification 227 Freshwater supply 227 Population growth 229 Synergies and trade-offs 231 Integration, sustainable development and equity 232 Postscript: connections between economic and climate crises 234 Endnotes 236 10 The politics of greenhouse 239 Is the science credible? 239 What about the uncertainty? 241 How realistic are the scenarios? 242 Choosing global and local emissions targets 243 How urgently we need to act? 246 How much will reducing emissions cost? 247 Meeting targets most efficiently 249 International equity: what is fair? 254 The importance of equity within countries 260 Equity between generations 261 The role of governments and NGOs 262 What role should business take? 264 CONTENTS vii The role of state and local governments 268 So what are the politics of greenhouse? 270 Endnotes 271 11 International concern and national interests 277 A brief history 277 The Kyoto Protocol 280 National interests and climate change 282 African nations 283 Australia and New Zealand 284 China 289 European Union 291 India, Pakistan and Bangladesh 293 Latin America 295 The Russian Federation 296 Small Island States 298 United States of America 300 The common interest in global solutions 306 Endnotes 307 12 Accepting the challenge 317 Looking beyond the Kyoto Protocol 321 Addressing the key issues 324 Endnotes 326 Glossary (with acronyms) 329 Index 337 FOREWORD Barrie Pittock has been a leading researcher of considerable standing worldwide on various aspects of climate change The quality and content of research carried out by him has established a benchmark that sets the standard for several of his peers and provides a model for young researchers In this book he has provided a comprehensive analysis of various aspects of climate change, which he begins by examining the physical and biological aspects of climate change and a detailed analysis of the science of the climate system The book assumes great topical interest for the reader because of several questions that the author has posed and attempted to answer, such as the recent heatwave that took place in Paris in the summer of 2003, the frequency of closure of the Thames barrier, and the melting of glaciers which affects not only parts of Europe but even the high mountain glaciers in the Himalayas A study of paleoclimate is an important component of present-day climate change research, and the book goes through a lucid and useful assessment of the evidence that is available to us today in understanding and quantifying the nature and extent of climate change in the past Also presented in considerable detail are projections of climate change in the future including a discussion of the emissions scenarios developed and used by the IPCC and projections obtained from it as well as from other sources An extremely eloquent statement is conveyed in the title of Chapter 4, which states ‘Uncertainty is inevitable, but risk is certain’ This really is the key message in this book particularly as it goes on to describe the impacts of climate change, the seriousness with which these should be considered and the imperative need for adaptation In Chapter a comprehensive and detailed assessment is provided on several mitigation actions The volume ends by making a logical transition into political issues that have national as well as international dimensions For sheer breadth and comprehensiveness of coverage, Barrie Pittock’s book fills a unique void in the literature in this field Coming as it does from an author who knows the scientific and technical complexities of the whole subject, this book should be seen as a valuable reference for scientists and policymakers alike In my view, which is shared by a growing body of concerned citizens worldwide, climate change is a challenge faced by the global community that will require unprecedented resolve and increasing ingenuity to tackle in the years ahead Efforts to be made would need to be based on knowledge and informed assessment of the future Barrie Pittock’s book provides information and analysis that will greatly assist and guide decision makers on what needs to be done DR RAJENDRA K PACHAURI Director-General, The Energy and Resources Institute, India and Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2005 ND EDN )NTERNATIONAL 'EOPHYSICS 3ERIES VOL (ARCOURT !CADEMIC 0RESS 3AN $IEGO AND 4HOMAS #ROWLEY Paleoclimatology /XFORD5NIVERSITY0RESS .EW9ORK 3EEALSO&RITTS Tree Rings and Climate "LACKBURN0RESS #ALDWELL .EW*ERSEYREPRINT REGARDINGTHEUSEOFTREERINGS ANDTHETree Ring NewsletterATHTTPWWW TREERINGSOCIETYORG4HETEXTQuaternary EnvironmentsBY-!*7ILLIAMSANDOTHERS %DWARD!RNOLD ,ONDON