1 RISK PERCEPTIONRISK PERCEPTION Len Ritter Maged Younes (WHO) PROCESS OF RISK PROCESS OF RISK PERCEPTIONPERCEPTION aIntuitive judgement process aExperience with hazards come from news media. Associated with mishaps and global threats aCognitive frame: concept of chemicals as pollutants and poisons aOutrage factor COMPARING RISKSCOMPARING RISKS aIf the risk of dying from being struck by lightening is 1, relative risk values for certain factors would be: a Death in air traffic 2 a Death in air traffic 2 a Meteorite: 7 a AIDS 24 a Home accidents 182 a Traffic accidents 286 a Alcohol 645 a Pulmonary cancer 870 a All cancers 5263 a Cigarette smoking 6060 RISKS THAT INCREASE PROBABILITY RISKS THAT INCREASE PROBABILITY OF DEATH BY ONE IN A MILLIONOF DEATH BY ONE IN A MILLION a Smoking 1.4 cigarettes (Cancer/heart disease) a Travelling 10 miles by bicycle (Accident) a Travelling 300 mile by car (Accident) a Flying 1000 milesbyjet (Accident) a Flying 1000 miles by jet (Accident) a One chest X-ray (Cancer from radiation) a Living 150 years within 20 miles of a nuclear power plant (Cancer from radiation) a Risk of accident by living within 5 miles of a nuclear reactor for 50 years (Cancer from radiation) 2 Mosaic of public perceptions of risks in terms of risk assessment quadrantsMosaic of public perceptions of risks in terms of risk assessment quadrants UNDERESTIMATED RISKSUNDERESTIMATED RISKS aSmoking aAlcohol consumption a Risky sporting activities a Risky sporting activities aMotorcar traffic aInfectious diseases aHeart diseases due to overweight and lack of physical activity OVERESTIMATED RISKSOVERESTIMATED RISKS aAir traffic aRadioactivity aHazardous waste aChemicals in food aSnakebites aLightning strike FACTORS INFLUENCING FACTORS INFLUENCING RISK PERCEPTIONRISK PERCEPTION aLikelihood of adverse outcomes aFamiliarity, dread and spread of hazard hazard aWho is affected? Individual risk aVoluntary or accepted risk? aBenefits from accepting risk 3 FACTORS CAUSING FACTORS CAUSING OUTRAGE OUTRAGE aPotentially uncontrollable risks a Ability to cause catastrophe on a a Ability to cause catastrophe on a global scale aRisk to future generations aDreaded outcomes FACTORS AFFECTING RISK FACTORS AFFECTING RISK PERCEPTIONPERCEPTION FACTOR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS FOR FOR INCREASED DECREASED PUBLIC PUBLIC CONCERN CONCERN ___________________________________________________ Catastrophic Effects grouped in Effects grouped in potential time & space time & space Familiarity Unfamiliar Familiar Understanding Mechanisms/pro- Mechanisms/process cess not understood understood Pers. Controllability Uncontrollable Controllable FACTORS AFFECTING RISK FACTORS AFFECTING RISK PERCEPTION (PERCEPTION (22)) FACTOR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS FOR FOR INCREASED DECREASED PUBLIC PUBLIC CONCERN CONCERN ___________________________________________________ Voluntariness Involuntary Voluntary Effects on children Special risk no special risk Effect manifestation Delayed effects Immediate effects Future generations Risk No risk Victims Identifiable Statistical FACTORS AFFECTING RISK FACTORS AFFECTING RISK PERCEPTION (PERCEPTION (33)) FACTOR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS FOR FOR INCREASED DECREASED PUBLIC PUBLIC CONCERN CONCERN ___________________________________________________ Dread Effects dreaded Effects not dreaded Institutions Lack of trust Institutions trusted Media attention High Low Accident history Accidents No accidents Equity (Risk/ Inequitable Equitable benefit distrib.) 4 FACTORS AFFECTING RISK FACTORS AFFECTING RISK PERCEPTION (PERCEPTION (44)) FACTOR CONDITIONS CONDITIONS FOR FOR INCREASED DECREASED PUBLIC PUBLIC CONCERN CONCERN __________________________________________________ _ Benefits Unclear benefits Clear benefits Reversibility Effects irreversible Effects reversible Origin Caused by human Caused by acts of action/failure nature RISK TOLERANCE RISK TOLERANCE SUMMARY OF FACTORSSUMMARY OF FACTORS FACTOR/CHARACTERISTIC DIRECTION OF INFLUENCE ___________________________________________________ 1. Personal control Increases risk tolerance 2. Institutional control Depends on confidence in institutional performance 3 Vl i Iikl 3 . V o l untar i ness I ncreases r i s k to l erance 4. Familiarity Increases risk tolerance 5. Dread Decreases risk tolerance 6. Inequitable distribution of Depends on individual risks and benefits utility, strong social incentive for rejecting risks 7. Artificiality of source Amplifies attention to risk, often decreases tolerance 8. Blame Quest for sociopolitical response CHARACTERISTICS OF RISKCHARACTERISTICS OF RISK aa KnowledgeKnowledge : Society’s awareness of risk from activity (food additives: little; alcohol: much) aa NewnessNewness : Extent of societal experience (guns: old ; biotechnolo gy : new ) ;gy) aa VoluntarinessVoluntariness : Extent of individual’s choice about exposure (crime: involuntary; rock climbing: voluntary) aa ControlControl : Extent of ability of individual to control exposure, protect himself, or control consequences (uncontrollable risks: natural disasters) CHARACTERISTICS OF RISK CHARACTERISTICS OF RISK ((22)) aa DreadnessDreadness : Level of fear of risk or consequence (smoking: people do not dread; dioxins: people have great dread) ChiilChiil Ch f id d aa C atastrop hi c potent i a lC atastrop hi c potent i a l : Ch ance o f w id esprea d disastrous outcome (vaccination: not likely; nerve gas: likely) aa EquityEquity : Equal sharing of risks and benefits (hazardous waste dumps: distributed unequally; water chlorination: distributed equally) 5 INTUITIVE BIASES OF RISK PERCEPTION a Availability : Events that come to mind immediately are rated as more probable than those less mentally available a Ahi fft P b biliti a A nc h or i ng e ff ec ts : P ro b a biliti es are adjusted to availability or perceived significance of information a Representativeness : Singular/anecdotal events regarded as more typical than information based on frequencies ROLE OF MEDIA IN SHAPING ROLE OF MEDIA IN SHAPING RISK PERCEPTIONRISK PERCEPTION a Mechanisms of risk perception depend upon information (personal experience or media) a Messages undergo a transformation process; they may reflect reality or not they may reflect reality or not a Characteristics: `Media construct reality to suit readers’ understanding `Media direct attention to events, not developments `Media have no mechanism to resolve conflicts among experts IMPLICATIONS FOR RISK IMPLICATIONS FOR RISK ASSESSMENT AND ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENTMANAGEMENT aStakeholder involvement in all stages of risk assessment a Addressing public concerns adequately a Addressing public concerns adequately aConsider risk perception issues in risk management/risk reduction decisions aOpenness and transparency aDesign adequate risk communication strategies . 1 RISK PERCEPTIONRISK PERCEPTION Len Ritter Maged Younes (WHO) PROCESS OF RISK PROCESS OF RISK PERCEPTIONPERCEPTION aIntuitive judgement process aExperience. radiation) 2 Mosaic of public perceptions of risks in terms of risk assessment quadrantsMosaic of public perceptions of risks in terms of risk assessment quadrants UNDERESTIMATED RISKSUNDERESTIMATED RISKS aSmoking aAlcohol. Special risk no special risk Effect manifestation Delayed effects Immediate effects Future generations Risk No risk Victims Identifiable Statistical FACTORS AFFECTING RISK FACTORS AFFECTING RISK PERCEPTION