INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENT

INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENT Monday December 12 2011 Herman Autrup 2 SYSTEMIC RISKS Complex risks to human health and the environment, embedded within wider context of social, economic and financial risks and opportunities (OECD 2002, Klinke and Renn 2006) Science Public Policy HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENT PARADIGME POLICIES and mechanisms SOURCES Burdens & Emissions Pollution in µ- environments People & Context: social, economic, behavioural, perceptions of risk EXPOSURES Dose Toxicity: %change per unit exposure or dose Background rates of mortality & morbidity HEALTH (DISEASE) IMPACTS INTEGRATED HIA PATHWAY FACTORS THAT MAY EFFECT HEALTH Complex Exposures – multifactorial etiology Endogenous factors Biological factors Accident factors Physical factors Noise, climate Chemical factors Air pollution IMPACT SOURCE TO IMPACT 7 IMPACT PATHWAY Dose Emission/ Release hazardous agents Exposures Health effectsConcentration Monetary value of impacts Disease Burden Policy deficits Perception & acceptability e.g. emission limit e.g. quality standard e.g. exposure guideline e.g. bioiogical quality guideline concentration effect relation exposure-effect relation 8 KEY CHARACTERISTICS  Policy oriented  Starts from policies and assesses how these translate into health effects  Full-chain approach  Links remote/distal sources to health effects  Multi-factorial  Considers multiple sources, agents, pathways, effects  Health as well-being  Includes beneficial as well as adverse health effects  Environment writ-large  Living/working (indoor) and social as well as ambient environment  Aggregative  Provides overall metrics of impact (including monetary/social value) TYPES OF ASSESSMENTS Integrated risk assessment – human, biota and natural resources Comparative risk assessment – changes in population health – modifying the population distribution of exposure to a risk factor Health Impact assesments – focus on policies and interventions – environment is not just a hazard Environmental impact assessment WHY NEW ASSESSMENT PARADIGME ? Powerful technologies Increased globalisation Correctness of societies Economic and social effects as well as health People far removed from the origin of the hazard Future generations [...]... coherent policy reduces the public health impact if ambient PM 13 CASE OUTDOOR AIR - WHY ? • Associated with significant public health effects • Influenced by policies in many sectors • Fuel combustion • Generation of electricity • Waste incineration • agriculture BIOFUELS 2003 2006 2006 2007 2008 Biofuels directive 5.75 % market share of transport fuels in 2010 Impact assessment of biofuels policy options... (ug/m3) x coefficient (Fer) Fer – PM2.5 Receptor Impact Fer Adult use of bronchodilator 0.272 Children 0.129 cough Elderly 65+ Congestive heart failure 0.223 3.09E-05 PROBLEMS - LONG TERM EXPOSURE Population at risk - life tables Time-lag between policy measures and consequent changes in mortality No link between daily variation and health effects HEALTH IMPACT Morbidity and Mortality YLL = years of lost... Personal Exposure Construct the full annual pattern of daily concentrations of ambient air Apply the relevant concentration – response function to estimate daily intake Aggregate the impacts over days in the year – annual impacts Problems: C-R linear with no threshold different metrics use 1,8, 24 h attributable deaths – among people with severe diseases – earlier death TEMPORAL RESOLUTION OF EMISSION... Agriculture 9% 14% 2% 3% 16% 9% 3% 5% 2% 9% 9% 39% 18% 5% 1% 6% SOURCES OF EMISSIONS CLE Current Legislation MFTR = Maximum feasible Technical Reduction HOW GOOD ARE THE DATA ? UNCERTAINTY IN POLLUTANT ASSESSMENT PM undifferentiated by source or composition Primary combustion particles, other particles and secondary particles AIR QUALITY EMISSION SCENARIOS Base emission inventories Projected future emission... happen if we intervene ?  What is the relative costs and benefits of different interventions?  Which option is best ? Research perspective Policy perspective Ambient PM has an independent effect on health Transient metals Ultrafines PM2.5 PAH pH Carbonaceous PM10 BS Bio-aerosol Diesel Cough FVC Electricity Wheeze FEV1 PEF Industry Traffic CVD Resp dis Pulmonary function Households Symptoms Exposures...CONCEPTIONAL FRAMEWORK TYPES OF ASSESSMENT 1 Diagnostic - problems exist  Is there a risk ?  What is the cause ?  Where might we act 2 Summative  What are the effect of current policies ?  Are They meeting their targets ?  Does... pollution Full chain approach Population at risk: Overall Subgroups Pollution: Sources: Emissions Pathways Background data: Morbidity rates Incremental pollution Valuations C-R functions Risk as % change Impacts Benefits of improved air quality DEATH RATES AND RESIDUAL LIFE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES Allocation of monetary values Differences in the number of future death Quality of human life Value of a statistical . INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENT Monday December 12 2011 Herman Autrup 2 SYSTEMIC RISKS Complex risks to human health and the environment, embedded. exposure to a risk factor Health Impact assesments – focus on policies and interventions – environment is not just a hazard Environmental impact assessment WHY NEW ASSESSMENT PARADIGME ? Powerful. monetary/social value) TYPES OF ASSESSMENTS Integrated risk assessment – human, biota and natural resources Comparative risk assessment – changes in population health – modifying the population