Biến đổi khí hậu ở Việt Nam

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Biến đổi khí hậu ở Việt Nam

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS IN VIET NAM CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS IN VIET NAM • Viet Nam is considered as one of the most vulnerable countries due to CC and sea level rise. • If sea level rise of 1 m, Viet Nam will loose about 12% of land, 23% of population will be affected. • Typhoons occur more frequently with higher intensity. • Temperature increases and change in rainfall pattern will affect agriculture and water resources. 1 m 2 m 3 m 4 m 5 m WB 2007 Impacts of sea level rise “Large percentage of Vietnam’s population and economic activities are located in these two river deltas. 14% of Vietnam population would be impacted by a 1m SLR. This is the largest percentage of impacted population among all 84 countries. Vietnam impacted population would reach 35% with a 5m SLR. The impact of SLR on Vietnam’s GDP and urban extent follow the impact on its population”. Inundation in Mekong River Delta due to 1 m Sea Level Rise Source: HMS • Annual average temperature increases about 0.10C per decade. In some summer months, temperature increases about 0.1- 0.3 o C per decade. Source: Vietnam National communication 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.5 23.0 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2 1 3 4 O C Yea r Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of Temperature at A Luoi station. Annual temperature Climate Change in Vietnam Climate Change in Vietnam • More heavy rainfalls causing severe floods; • Rainfall decreases in dry season (Jul., Aug.) and increases in rainy season (Sep. to Nov.). 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2 1 3 4 m m Year Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of August- December rainfall at A Luoi station. Rainfall of Aug Dec. Typhoon trajectory moves southward and typhoon season shifts to later months of the year; Climate Change in Vietnam Climate Change in Vietnam Cumulative tracks of tropical cyclones (1985–2005) [Nicholls et al , 2007] • High floods occur more frequently in the Central and Southern Vietnam. • • Drought happen every year in most regions of the Drought happen every year in most regions of the country. country. Climate Change in Vietnam Climate Change in Vietnam • ENSO has stronger effects on weather regime and climatic features in various areas of Viet Nam; • Sea level rises from 2.5-3 cm per decade in the last century. Climate Change Vietnam Climate Change Vietnam Vulnerability of delta dwelling populations [Source: Nicholls et al., 2007] Impacts on Coastal Zone Impacts on Coastal Zone Impacts of Impacts of Climate Change Climate Change Public Health Environ ment Tourism Energy Forestry Agriculture Water Respurses Climate Change [...]... Vietnam National communication Impacts on Water Resources • Instability in rainfall would cause more severe floods in rainy season and droughts in dry season • Increase in frequency and intensity of typhoons, storms would cause high floods & inundation, flash floods, landslide and erosion • Increasing water shortage and growing water demand threaten water supply, water use conflicts Source: Vietnam... Source: Vietnam National communication Impacts on Aquaculture & Fisheries • Sea level rise would reduce fresh water creatures in rivers & estuaries, high temperature – reduce high valuable sub-tropical fishes; • Habitat loss for young creatures due to mangrove decrease; • Reducing sea products productivity and commercial quality due to: – Migration of fishes; – Reduction of body weight Source: Vietnam National... Central coastal zone would be inundated due to sea level rise • Coastal & estuarine wetlands would be affected due to frequent floods, severe drought & salinity (Ca Mau, Ho Chi Minh City, Vung Tau and Nam Dinh) • Livelihood of coastal population will be affected by more severe storms, flood, drought and sea level rise Projections for a 1 m sea level rise: 15,00020,000 km2 of Mekong River delta flooded,... energy generation due to drought ; • Unstable flow regimes may lead to conflict in water regulation at hydropower stations • More energy consumption for due to high temperature and humidity Source: Vietnam National communication Impacts on Human Health Negative Impact Very high confidence Malaria: contraction and expansion, changes in transmission season High confidence Increase in malnutrition Increase . IMPACTS IN VIET NAM CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS IN VIET NAM • Viet Nam is considered as one of the most vulnerable countries due to CC and sea level rise. • If sea level rise of 1 m, Viet Nam will. Change in Vietnam Climate Change in Vietnam Cumulative tracks of tropical cyclones (1985–2005) [Nicholls et al , 2007] • High floods occur more frequently in the Central and Southern Vietnam. • • Drought. country. country. Climate Change in Vietnam Climate Change in Vietnam • ENSO has stronger effects on weather regime and climatic features in various areas of Viet Nam; • Sea level rises from 2.5-3

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