KINH TẾ VĨ MÔ_CHƯƠNG 5: NỀN KINH TẾ MỞ ppsx

1 kinh t v mô bn th nm N. Gregory Mankiw Bài ging ca TS Phm Th Anh pham.theanh@yahoo.com (dch và sa theo bài ging ca Ron Cronovich) macro © 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved CHNG 5 NN KINH T M CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 1 Mc tiêu ca chng Mc tiêu ca chng          !"#$% &'  ()* !"+$%  CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 2 % GDP 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Canada France Germany Italy Japan U.K. U.S. Nhp khu Xut khu Nhp khu và Xut khu Nhp khu và Xut khu theo phn trm sn lng: theo phn trm sn lng: 2000 2000 CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 3 Trong mt nn kinh t m, Trong mt nn kinh t m,  ,-./#0)1  2./#03- CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 4 Mt s khái nim Mt s khái nim  4&-5- 4 ,-60 )1&-70  4895- 4  : ;  : ;  : 4,-      = +      = +      = + <)%7,= >4 ,- * :4 ,-  CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 5 Mt s khái nim Mt s khái nim , , tip theo tip theo  4&-5-7? @? !" A 4  B   C-  DEF 0GG  ./#0   C-  HEF 0GG  ./#0 B  2 CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 6 GDP = GDP = chi tiêu cho hàng hoá & dch chi tiêu cho hàng hoá & dch v sn xut trong nc v sn xut trong nc         = + + + @ A @ A @ A           = − + − + − + @ A           = + + + − + +      = + + + −     = + + + CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 7 ng nht thc thu nhp quc dân ng nht thc thu nhp quc dân trong mt nn kinh t m trong mt nn kinh t m   4 4   ; ;   ; ;   ; ;   IF  4  B @  ;  ;  A &-5- 7? ,- 70 )1  CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 8 Chu chuyn vn quc t Chu chuyn vn quc t   ! 4 " B  4 J1K77?#%#K 4 L-7?)10 -)10*0 7M -60)170  N " D  F0G6#K7?  N " H  F06#K7? CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 9 Mt ng nht thc quan trng khác Mt ng nht thc quan trng khác  4  B @  ;  ;  A O  4@  B  B  AB  4 " B  !" 4 #%1K77?   4 4   B B @ @   ; ;   ; ;   A A O O   4@ 4@   B B   B B   A A B B   4 4 " " B B   !" !" 4 4 #%1K77? #%1K77? CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 10 Tit kim và u t trong Tit kim và u t trong mt Nn Kinh t M Nh mt Nn Kinh t M Nh  P*9,.17 #%#K"QR  S-!%"T= = = )&-= @ F A   # $  = − U->-= @ A    % = >--= @ A    = = .U))= F   % % CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 11 Tit kim quc gia: Tit kim quc gia: Cung v Vn Vay Cung v Vn Vay  "& C7"QF 2V-% 9W-*# X)- @ A "    %  = − − − " 3 CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 12 Gi nh: Gi nh: chu chuyn vn chu chuyn vn R 79-70+0K 1 @Y77FFZA .R '' ()*)= G71%#0#2-. )1V-% R += K[X)-0F O2-  \  +. O  4 ,  O , )   + + . . O O   4 4 , ,   O O , , ) ) CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 13 u t: u t: Cu v Vn Vay Cu v Vn Vay ]3-#^* >%&-%X)-F  \ -K,X)- 0)Z ZV-K'3- *0R  @ , A  "&  @  A CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 14 Nu nn kinh t là óng… Nu nn kinh t là óng…  "&  @  A "   @ A    " = ZX)- 0)_- < !./ 3-# 2= CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 15 Tuy nhiên trong mt nn kinh t m Tuy nhiên trong mt nn kinh t m nh… nh…  "&  @  A "   ,  ` X)-0 ) V-K' 3-Z Z#)T, 2a 2#3- V-K' #%1K 77?#&- 5-7?  CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 16 Ba thc nghim Ba thc nghim `R L()70 bR L()0 QR cTd3-3- CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 17 `R `R Chính sách tài khoá trong nc Chính sách tài khoá trong nc  "&  @  A ` "  ` cTd  I1 %  12R ` ,   ` b "  b NV-1= E  ∆ = E  " ∆ = ∆ < 4 CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 18 NX NX và Thâm ht Ngân sách Chính ph và Thâm ht Ngân sách Chính ph -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Percent of GDP -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 Percent of GDP Thâm ht ngân sách (ct phi) Xut khu ròng (ct trái) CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 19 bR bR Chính sách tài khoá  nc ngoài Chính sách tài khoá  nc ngoài  "&  @  A ` " L() 7* 0 d X)- 0R ` ,   `  b NV-1= E  ∆ < E   ∆ = −∆ > b ,  ` @ A ,   b @ A ,   CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 20 Q Q R R S! gia tng cu u t S! gia tng cu u t  "&  @  A ` -*./0 ce>W &'* )Td3- 3-%#0  F " F  F##%1K 77?R  ` ,   ` " CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 21 QR QR S! gia tng cu u t S! gia tng cu u t  "&  @  A ` 12/2= ∆ ∆∆ ∆  DEF ∆ ∆∆ ∆ " 4EF #% 7?1K7 #&-5- 7?1 * ./#0 ∆ ∆∆ ∆   b  ` ,   `  b "  @  A b CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 22 T" giá hi oái danh ngha T" giá hi oái danh ngha 3 4 $%>fF "%*2( U2 @#(>W gU7,h7A CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 23 T giá hi oái vào ngày T giá hi oái vào ngày 06 06 - - 06 06 - - 2002 2002 iRjkU))lmPU& `FnnnFEoQR`J7)lmp-7UK ERoqk->)lmrRNR Q`Rns U)lms-)) `REot-7lmt-7 p$%C0 iRqs>lmc-u:7 `bnRQgUlmv9 5 CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 24 T" giá hi oái th!c t T" giá hi oái th!c t 4 $%TF "%*( U @#(>W)%.S P) C87,*.S P PfA wKJ9  U9) 4 CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 25 Tìm hiu n v tính ca Tìm hiu n v tính ca 4 4 × = @gU7UmA @m7U># PA gU7U>#C = c>#C  7U>#P = gU7U>#P gU7U>#C \ 3 5 5 × = 4 CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 26  *= SS P  C8= 5, 4bEEgU  Pf= 5 4mbFxE  $%>f 3 4`bEgUlm  mua mt chic bánh Big Mac  M, mt ngi t Nht phi tr mt khon tin có th mua c 1,5 chic bánh Big Macs  Nht.  mua mt chic bánh Big Mac  M, mt ngi t Nht phi tr mt khon tin có th mua c 1,5 chic bánh Big Macs  Nht. \ `bE mbRxE bEEg R U ` x 3 5 5 × = × = = 4 ~ ~ McZample McZample ~ ~ CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 27 4 4 trong th trong th   gi gi   i th i th   c & c & trong m trong m ô ô h h ì ì nh c nh c   a ch a ch ú ú ng ta ng ta  p70T= LyG 4 "% **(U*   p7y= L<G*F)1  h#8K 4   "%)1 *0(U)1*0  CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 28   ph thuc th nào vào ph thuc th nào vào 4 4 ↑ 4    w Pf 7 ,z"* "%%#0    ↓  F↑     ↓  CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 29 Xut khu ròng ca M và Xut khu ròng ca M và T" giá Hi oái Th!c t, T" giá Hi oái Th!c t, 1975 1975 - - 2002 2002 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 % GDP 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1998:2 = 100 Net exports (left scale) Real exchange rate (right scale) 6 CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 30 Hàm xut khu ròng Hàm xut khu ròng  6*7'89:'91%V- 2 $ 2 'a  # 4=  4  @ 4 A CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 31 #ng #ng NX NX ca M ca M ;  4  @ 4 A 4 < N 4 " %9F  Pf 7{ * "%  @ 4 < A >#8K&- 5-7? Pf )_  CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 32 #ng #ng NX NX ca M ca M ;  4 @ 4 A 4 = N 4  0F Pf 7 ,z>#8K  @ 4 = A y&- 5-(" 895- CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 33 4 c xác nh th nào c xác nh th nào  ]K  4 " −   p70GyX. " −  &' = | " 9W-*#!%70@)1 F.()FZA |  &'.X)-0  \  h#8KF 4 91-<1.1 @ A @ A ,  4 "   = − CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 34 4 c xác nh th nào c xác nh th nào L1 " #  - 9W-* # 4 F>#8K 691 #%1K7 7? }R 4   @ 4 A ` @ \A "   − 4 -< !./  #0#% 1K77?F " −  R 4 1  1 CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 35 Cung và Cu trên th trng ngoi hi Cung và Cu trên th trng ngoi hi L3-= C60 3- &-5-7? PfR 4   @ 4 A ` @ \A "   − L-= J#%1K7 7? @ " −  A  - 3-   0R 4 1  1 7 CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 36 Bn thc nghim Bn thc nghim `R L()70 bR L()0 QR cTd3-3- nR L()"89 5- CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 37 `R `R Chính sách tài khoá trong nc Chính sách tài khoá trong nc cT7* 1 2V-%F #%1K7 7?F#- 7,'76 %Z Z$  % T d#  1R 4   @ 4 A ` @ \A "   − 4 `  `  b b @ \A "   − 4 b CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 38 bR bR Chính sách tài khoá  nc ngoài Chính sách tài khoá  nc ngoài cTd , 13-F d#% 1K77?# -7,' 76%Z Z$  % T 1#  dR 4   @ 4 A ` ` @ \A "   −  ` 4 ` b` @ A \ "   − 4 b  b CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 39 Q Q R R S! gia tng cu u t S! gia tng cu u t cTd3- 1 #%1K 77?#- 7,' 76 %Z 4   @ 4 A Z$  % T d#  1R 4 ` ` ` "  −  ` b ` "  −  b 4 b CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 40 nR nR Chính sách thng m$i h$n ch Chính sách thng m$i h$n ch nhp khu nhp khu 4   @ 4 A ` "  −  ` 4 `  @ 4 A b ~07'.• 4 F89 5-  ↓   ↑   3->' -K)91 L()" 1 " I  F >#8K- -K#%# - [ 4 b CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 41 nR nR Chính sách thng m$i h$n ch Chính sách thng m$i h$n ch nhp khu nhp khu 4   @ 4 A ` "  −  ` 4 `  @ 4 A b NV-1= ∆ ∆∆ ∆ 4 DE @d3-A ∆ ∆∆ ∆  4E @-% 'A ∆ ∆∆ ∆  HE @()A ∆ ∆∆ ∆  HE @ 4 dA 4 b 8 CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 42 Các nhân t xác nh Các nhân t xác nh T" giá Hi oái Danh ngha T" giá Hi oái Danh ngha  Sz3-#0.-&'$% T= \ 3 5 4 5 × =  €1$%>f= \ 5 3 4 5 = × CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 43 Các nhân t xác nh Các nhân t xác nh T" giá Hi oái Danh ngha T" giá Hi oái Danh ngha ( * , )    5 = + π @ A @ A ,  4 "   = −  h#8K 3 9W-*#$%T# 70#0Z  Z#yX.•.KV-K' = \ 5 3 4 5 = × * * * * ( * *, )     5 = + π CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 44 Các nhân t xác nh Các nhân t xác nh T" giá Hi oái Danh ngha T" giá Hi oái Danh ngha  LyG#9"7 KU%*dy= \ 5 3 4 5 = × , , 3 4 5 5 3 4 5 5 = + − ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ , 4 4 π π π ππ π π π = + − ∆ ∆∆ ∆  ~0•7' 4 F %* d 3 ./#0)T ,2 a$ 2 9 0# $ 2  970R CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 45 Lm phát và T giá hi oái danh ngha Lm phát và T giá hi oái danh ngha % thay i ca t giá danh ngha 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 Chênh lch lm phát Mt giá tng i so vi ôla M -1-2-3 10 2 3 4 5 6 87 France Canada Sweden Australia UK Ireland Spain South Africa Italy New Zealand Netherlands Germany Japan Belgium Switzerland Lên giá tng i so vi ôla M CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 46 Ngang b%ng Sc mua Ngang b%ng Sc mua (PPP) (PPP)  'f`=*O-K7/ 91.Y*@-< UA10R  'fb= $%-< !./9(* 0R  J89-8= 3-",2FV-K-8 * CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 47 Ngang b%ng Sc mua (PPP) Ngang b%ng Sc mua (PPP)  kkk= 3 × ×× × 5 4 5\ L9( *  *F( U2R L9( *  *F( U*2R L9( *  F (U2R  €1 3 = 3 4 5\l5  kkkO$%>fa 0./#0$)%a 0R 9 CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 48 Ngang b%ng Sc mua (PPP) Ngang b%ng Sc mua (PPP)  ‚: 3 4 5,l5 F  \ \ \ ` 5 5 5 4 3 5 5 5 = × = × = #6 Cƒ/= 4   4 4` " −  pU kkkF)T K [@ " − −− −  A G 1   4 I 3 R CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 49 Liu PPP Liu PPP có úng trong th gii thc? có úng trong th gii thc? NF#O>= `R ]3-",2V-%&1K 7R  "  (9(#8-K bR wa0- 91K1R p-K,Fkkk*O-Ka(= | CG"1+>„- | p70TF$%>f G&-0*W#7'kkkG7 >R CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 50  K[  K[ ↓ ↓↓ ↓ ↑ ↑↑ ↑ ↓ ↓↓ ↓ ↑ ↑↑ ↑ ↑ ↑↑ ↑ ↓ ↓↓ ↓  K[  K[ ↓ ↓↓ ↓ ↑ ↑↑ ↑ ↑ ↑↑ ↑ ↓ ↓↓ ↓ ↓ ↓↓ ↓ ↑ ↑↑ ↑ ↓ ↓↓ ↓ ↑ ↑↑ ↑ `biFn …bFE `iFn oFQ `jFn QFi ``xF` …EFQ `iFi `F` `iFo bFb  G   K[ T 4    "  B % `iqE)`ijE) S liu: bình quân c thp k; tt c các bin tr  và 4 c tính theo % ca GDP; 4 là ch < s %  c  ánh tr  ng s % th " ng m  i. NGHIÊN C&U TÌNH HU'NG: NGHIÊN C&U TÌNH HU'NG: Thâm ht  th#i k( Thâm ht  th#i k( Reagan Reagan CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 51 Nc M, mt nn kinh t m ln Nc M, mt nn kinh t m ln  L06KFyX,- 7>769 I.2=  G @" QA   @" xA  P*0……… 0Pf……… a TKR  L9!(()IaK[ )7*0 •9V-17G +R  ~(>WZ CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 52    0    G S m rng tài khoá S m rng tài khoá trong ba mô hình trong ba mô hình 1F- 7  1  [ 1F- 7G [1 dF- G [d cT7*2V-% 1Rw2-G9W-*#*e= CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 53 Tóm t)t chng Tóm t)t chng `R ƒ-5-7?…… )T,2a  &-5-#895-  )1*0 @  A #,-G @  ;  ;  A bR J#%1K77?./#0  -)10 7M-60)1 0G  )T,2a2#3- QR ]-89V-%>!=   4  ;  ;  ;   !"  4 " − −− −  #%1K7 7? 10 CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 54 Tóm t)t chng Tóm t)t chng nR p*()%#0  =   d-() " d I  1   K[-()1  " #  R~(>W=()" xR p$%  >f=*0(U *0  T= *0(U *0R  p$%T./#0$%> f!#0$)%1a0R CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 55 Tóm t)t chng Tóm t)t chng oR p$%T&'   9W-*!#$%TF7 -2K-%[  p$%T-<!./  #0#%1K77? jR p$%>f&'  3 ./#0$%T!#0 "%*0)#00R  ~0•7''$%TF 937dK[$%>f./ #0,2a$290+$2 970R . 1 kinh t v mô bn th nm N. Gregory Mankiw Bài ging ca TS Phm Th Anh pham.theanh@yahoo.com (dch. lng: 2000 2000 CHAPTER 5 CHAPTER 5 The Open Economy The Open Economy slide 3 Trong mt nn kinh t m, Trong mt nn kinh t m,  ,-./#0)1  2./#03- CHAPTER. 7 ng nht thc thu nhp quc dân ng nht thc thu nhp quc dân trong mt nn kinh t m trong mt nn kinh t m   4 4   ; ;   ; ;   ; ;   IF  4  B @  ;  ;  A &-5- 7? ,- 70 )1  CHAPTER