CLIMATECHANGE– GEOPHYSICAL FOUNDATIONSAND ECOLOGICALEFFECTS EditedbyJuanBlancoand HoushangKheradmand Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects Edited by Juan Blanco and Houshang Kheradmand Published by InTech Janeza Trdine 9, 51000 Rijeka, Croatia Copyright © 2011 InTech All chapters are Open Access articles distributed under the Creative Commons Non Commercial Share Alike Attribution 3.0 license, which permits to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt the work in any medium, so long as the original work is properly cited. After this work has been published by InTech, authors have the right to republish it, in whole or part, in any publication of which they are the author, and to make other personal use of the work. Any republication, referencing or personal use of the work must explicitly identify the original source. Statements and opinions expressed in the chapters are these of the individual contributors and not necessarily those of the editors or publisher. No responsibility is accepted for the accuracy of information contained in the published articles. The publisher assumes no responsibility for any damage or injury to persons or property arising out of the use of any materials, instructions, methods or ideas contained in the book. Publishing Process Manager Iva Lipovic Technical Editor Teodora Smiljanic Cover Designer Jan Hyrat Image Copyright Sergey Vasilyev, 2010. Used under license from Shutterstock.com First published August, 2011 Printed in Croatia A free online edition of this book is available at www.intechopen.com Additional hard copies can be obtained from orders@intechweb.org Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects, Edited by Juan Blanco and Houshang Kheradmand p. cm. ISBN 978-953-307-419-1 free online editions of InTech Books and Journals can be found at www.intechopen.com Contents Preface IX Part 1 Climate Variability 1 Chapter 1 Chemistry-Climate Connections – Interaction of Physical, Dynamical, and Chemical Processes in Earth Atmosphere 3 Martin Dameris and Diego Loyola Chapter 2 Time Correlation Laws Inferred from Climatic Records: Long-Range Persistence and Alternative Paradigms 25 Maria Lanfredi, Tiziana Simoniello, Vincenzo Cuomo and Maria Macchiato Chapter 3 The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum: Feedbacks Between Climate Change and Biogeochemical Cycles 43 Arne Max Erich Winguth Chapter 4 Temporal Variability of Rain-Induced Floods in Southern Quebec 65 Assani Ali Arkamose, Landry Raphaëlle, Quessy Jean-François and Clément Francis Chapter 5 Detecting of a Global and Caribbean Climate Change 81 Nazario D. Ramirez-Beltran, Joan Manuel Castro and Oswaldo Julca Chapter 6 Climate Changes of the Recent Past in the South American Continent: Inferences Based on Analysis of Borehole Temperature Profiles 113 Valiya M. Hamza and Fábio P. Vieira Chapter 7 Climate Change Impacts on Atmospheric Circulation and Daily Precipitation in the Argentine Pampas Region 137 Olga C. Penalba and María Laura Bettolli VI Contents Chapter 8 Holocene Vegetation Responses to East Asian Monsoonal Changes in South Korea 157 Sangheon Yi Chapter 9 Climate Signals from 10 Be Records of Marine Sediments Surrounded with Nearby a Continent 179 Kyeong Ja Kim and Seung-Il Nam Chapter 10 Drought Analysis Based on SPI and SAD Curve for the Korean Peninsula Considering Climate Change 195 Minsoo Kyoung, Jaewon Kwak, Duckgil Kim, Hungsoo Kim and Vijay P. Singh Part 2 Changes in Fauna and Flora 215 Chapter 11 Review of Long Term Macro-Fauna Movement by Multi-Decadal Warming Trends in the Northeastern Pacific 217 Christian Salvadeo, Daniel Lluch-Belda, Salvador Lluch-Cota and Milena Mercuri Chapter 12 Global Heating Threatens the `I`iwi (Vestiaria coccinea), Currently a Common Bird of Upper Elevation Forests in Hawaii 231 Anthony Povilitis Chapter 13 Possible Effects of Future Climate Changes on the Maximum Number of Generations of Anopheles in Monsoon Asia 247 Shunji Ohta and Takumi Kaga Chapter 14 Climate Change and Shifts in the Distribution of Moth Species in Finland, with a Focus on the Province of Kainuu 273 Juhani H. Itämies, Reima Leinonen and V. Benno Meyer-Rochow Chapter 15 Effects and Consequences of Global Climate Change in the Carpathian Basin 297 János Rakonczai Chapter 16 Climate Change Impact on Quiver Trees in Arid Namibia and South Africa 323 Danni Guo, Renkuan Guo, Yanhong Cui, Guy F. Midgley, Res Altwegg and Christien Thiart Chapter 17 Changes in the Composition of a Theoretical Freshwater Ecosystem Under Disturbances 343 Ágota Drégelyi-Kiss and Levente Hufnagel Contents VII Chapter 18 The Use and Misuse of Climatic Gradients for Evaluating Climate Impact on Dryland Ecosystems - an Example for the Solution of Conceptual Problems 361 Marcelo Sternberg, Claus Holzapfel, Katja Tielbörger, Pariente Sarah, Jaime Kigel, Hanoch Lavee, Aliza Fleischer, Florian Jeltsch and Martin Köchy Part 3 Changes in Alpine and Boreal Landscapes 375 Chapter 19 Climate-Driven Change of the Stand Age Structure in the Polar Ural Mountains 377 Valeriy Mazepa, Stepan Shiyatov and Nadezhda Devi Chapter 20 Mountains Under Climate and Global Change Conditions – Research Results in the Alps 403 Oliver Bender, Axel Borsdorf, Andrea Fischer and Johann Stötter Chapter 21 Are Debris Floods and Debris Avalanches Responding Univocally to Recent Climatic Change – A Case Study in the French Alps 423 V. Jomelli, I. Pavlova, M. Utasse, M. Chenet, D. Grancher, D. Brunstein and F. Leone Chapter 22 Glaciers Shrinking in Nepal Himalaya 445 Samjwal R. Bajracharya, Sudan B. Maharjan and Finu Shrestha Chapter 23 Subglacial and Proglacial Ecosystem Responses to Climate Change 459 Jacob C. Yde, Teresa G. Bárcena and Kai W. Finster Chapter 24 Why Do We Expect Glacier Melting to Increase Under Global Warming? 479 Roger J. Braithwaite Chapter 25 Estimation of the Sea Level Rise by 2100 Resulting from Changes in the Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet 503 Xavier Fettweis, Alexandre Belleflamme, Michel Erpicum, Bruno Franco and Samuel Nicolay Preface Climate is a fundamental part of the wo rld as we know it. The landscape and everything on it are determined by climate acting over long periods of time (Pittock 2005).Therefore,any changeonclimatewillhave effectssooneror laterontheworld around us. These changes have happened before in the past, and they will lik ely happen again in thefuture. Climate variability can be both natural or anthropogenic (Simard and Austin 2010). In either case,the change in the current climate will have impactsonthebiogeophysicalsystemoftheEarth.Asallhumanactivitiesarebuilton thissy stem,oursocietywillbeimpactedaswell.Asaconsequence,climatechangeis increasingly becoming one of the most important issues, generating discussions in economy, science, politics, etc. There is no discrepancy among scientists that climate change is real and it has the potential to change our environment (Oreskes and Conway2010), butuncertaintyexists aboutthemag nitude andspeed at whichit will unfold(Moss etal. 2010).Themostdiscussedeffect of globalwarming isthe increase oftemperatures,althoughthisincreasewillnotbehomogeneousthroughtheseasons, with the winters expected to warm up significantly more than the s ummers. In addition, changes in precipitation are also expected, that could lead to increase or decrease ofrainfall, snowfall andother water‐related events. Finally, achange in the frequency and intensity of storm events could be possible, although this is probably themost uncertainofthe effectsofgl obalwarming. Theseuncertaintieshighlight the needformoreresearchonhowglobal events haveeffectsatregionalandlocalscales, buttheyalsoindicatedtheneedforthesocietyatlargetoassumearisk‐freeapproach to avoid the worse effects of climate change in our socio‐e conomical and ecological systems(IPCC2007). Humans have been dealing with risk‐related activities for a long time. For example, whenbuyingacarorhomeinsurance,thediscussionisnotaboutwhethertheadverse effects will happen or not, but on how to reduce its effects and recover and if they happen.Inma nycountries,havingcarinsuranceiscompulsorytodriveacar,evenif onlyasmallpercentageofdriverssuffercaraccidentscomparedtothetotalnumberof cars.Inaddition,themostriskymanoeuvres(i.e.excessivespeed,notstoppingonred light, etc.) are banned to reduce the risks of acci dents. Similarly, developing policies and practices that reduce and minimize the risks and effects of climate change are X Preface needed, even if the worse situations will never happen. If not, we will be in the equivalent of driving without insurance and without respecting the signals. All policiesandpracticesforeconomic,industrialandnaturalresourcemanagementneed tobefoundedonsoundscientificfoundations.Thisvolumeoffersaninterdisciplinary viewof thebi ophysicalissuesrelated toclimate change,and providesglimpse ofthe state‐of‐the‐art research carried out around the world to inform scientists, policymakersandotherstakeholders. Anyscientific d iscipli nelearnsfromexperience,andthescienceofclimatechangeis not different. Climate change is defi ned as a ph enomenon by which the long‐term averages of weather events (i.e. temperature, precipitation, wind speed, etc.) that definetheclimateofa regionarenotconstantbutchangeovertime.Climateisalso the result of very complex interactions between physical, chemical and biological variables. As a result, at ge ologic a l sc ales of ti me, climate is cons tantly goin g throughperi od sofrelativelystableconditionsfollowed byperiodsofchange.There have been a series of past periods of climatic change, registered in historical or paleoecological records thatcan bestudiedfrom differentgeophysical variables. In thefirstsectionof thisbook,aser iesofstate‐of‐the‐art researchprojectsexplorethe biophysical causes for climatechange and the techniquescurrently being used and developed forits detectionin several regions of the world. Inthis section, Dameris and Loyola desc ri be the interactions between physical, dynamical, and chemical processes in Earth atmosphere. Manf redi et al. provide a new statistical methodolog y to study changes in historical climatic data. Winguth discusses the feedbacksbetweencli matechange andbiogeochemicalcycles duringthePaleocene‐ Eocene Thermal Maximum. Historical and current changes in climatic and geophysical variables can be found around the glob e. In North America, Assani et al. stu dy the temporal variability of rain‐induced floods in southern Queb ec (Canada), whereas Ramírez‐Beltrán et al. showcase a study to de tec t the change in climatic c onditio ns at global scale and in the Caribbean basin. In South America, Hamzaet al.studied thechangesinsoiltempe rat ure todetectv ariabilityin climate for thelast decades,while Penalbaand Bettollianalyzethe changesin atmospheric circulation and daily precipitation caused by cli mate change in the Argentinean Pampas. In Asia, Yi studies the pollen records in Korea to establish the changes in climate during the Holocene , whereas Kim and Nam analyzing the records of bery lliumdeposits in the marine sediment, and Kyounget al. discuss theeffects of climatechangeindroughtsintheKoreanpeninsula. The knowledge of past changes in the environment will be of great value to try to understand what will happen unde r future climatic cond iti ons different from the current ones. However, the effects of climate change on ecos ys te ms around the world are not something of the future. They are happening now all around the globe. Ecological changes in the phenology and distribution of pla n ts and animals are occurri ng in all aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Predator‐prey and pl ant‐ [...]... similes of climate change and Drégelyi‐ Kiss and Hufnagel provide a theoretical study on climate induced changes in freshwater ecosystems. Being the ecosystems most potentially affected by climate change, the arctic and alpine regions are already experiencing some of the most noticeable and fastest changes. Range‐restricted species, particularly polar and mountaintop ... this topic. However, climate change is not just a theoretical issue only important for scientists or environmentalists. It also has direct implications in our socio‐economical systems. The other two books of this series Climate change – Socioeconomic effects” and Climate Change – Research and Technology for Adaptation and Mitigation” explore these topics in detail, and we encourage the reader to consult them as well. ... Annual Reviews of Ecology and Evolutionary systematic, Vol 37, p637‐669. Pittock, A.B. (2005). Climate change. Turning up the heat. Earthscan, London. ISBN 0643069343. Simard, S.W., Austin, M.E. (2010). Climate change and variability. InTech, Rijeka. ISBN 978‐953‐307‐144‐2. Part 1 Climate Variability 1 Chemistry -Climate Connections – Interaction of Physical, Dynamical, and Chemical Processes... ozone hole, the extreme thinning of the ozone layer in the south-polar 4 Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects stratosphere was explained as a combination of special meteorological conditions and changed chemical composition induced by industrially manufactured (anthropogenic) chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons 1.1 Ozone chemistry In the atmosphere, ozone (O3) is produced... the influence of clouds and other atmospheric effects (Loyola et al., 2011) Satellite total ozone measurements are systematically compared with ground-based measurements and the differences are typically lower than 1% Nevertheless satellite ozone data from different instruments may show spatial and temporal differences due to sensor 8 Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects Absorption... Antarctic stratosphere 20 Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects Fig 11 As Figure 10, but now for the polar regions (top: Northern Hemisphere for months February, March, and April; bottom: Southern Hemisphere for months September, October, and November) Deviations are given with regard to the mean value of the period 1995-2009 (in %) for the region between 60° and 90° Notice the different... feedbacks Usually, AGCM calculations employ prescribed concentrations of radiatively active gases, e.g CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs, and O3 Changes of water vapour (H2O) concentrations due to the hydrological cycle are directly simulated by an AGCM The 10 Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998... late March from 1979 until 2011 (no data available for 1995, see text) 12 Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects temporal development of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice coverage are prescribed in these models The chosen boundary conditions for concentrations of radiatively active gases and SSTs (incl sea ice) represent a specific period of time, e.g some years... some 14 Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects insight into current capabilities of numerical modelling of atmospheric processes and how model results are evaluated on the basement of observations The evaluation of results derived from numerical modelling with observations gives indications about the quality of the applied model which partly reflects our current understanding... dynamics and chemistry which is different in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and the tropics (see Sections 1.1 and 1.2) Fig 8 Seasonal mean values of total ozone (June 1995 to May 2008) from GOME/SCIAMACHY/GOME-2 satellite instruments (top), the E39CA simulation (middle), and the difference between satellite measurements and model results (bottom) (Figure 6 in Loyola et al., 2009) 16 Climate Change – . CLIMATE CHANGE – GEOPHYSICAL FOUNDATIONS AND ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS EditedbyJuanBlanco and HoushangKheradmand Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and. Climate Change – Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects, Edited by Juan Blanco and Houshang Kheradmand p. cm. ISBN 978-953-307- 419 -1 free online editions of InTech Books and. thistopic. However, climate change isnotjustatheoreticalissueonlyimportantforscientistsor environmentalists.Italsohasdirectimplicationsinoursocio‐economicalsystems.The othertwobooksofthisseries Climate change – Socioeconomic effects and Climate Change – Res earch and Technology for Adaptation and Mitigation” explore these topicsindetail, and weencouragethereadertoconsultthemaswell. The